Thursday, July 13, 2017

2017 Draft Review: San Diego Padres

First 5 rounds: MacKenzie Gore (1-3), Luis Campusano (2-39), Blake Hunt (CBB-69), Mason House (3-78), Sam Keating (4-108), Jonny Hozma (5-138)
Also notable: Alex Cunningham (9-258), Dominic Taccolini (10-288), Nick Feight (19-558), Daniel Cabrera (26-768)

The Padres threw all the chips in and took high risk high schoolers with each of their first six picks: two pitchers (always the injury risk), two catchers (low success rate historically), and two guys from way off the prospect map (one who played no major showcase events, one from Alaska...Alaska). The Padres' major league team doesn't really have anything going for it right now other than Wil Myers and the vastly underrated Ryan Schimpf, so they have time to toy around with some high risk, high reward prospects.

1-3: LHP MacKenzie Gore (my rank: 4)
Coming into the season, Gore was in the first round conversation but was projected to go somewhere in the back half or even in the Competitive Balance Round, outside the top 30, but a spectacular spring had his name rocketing up draft boards to the point where he was in the conversation for first overall pick. The Padres ultimately grabbed him with the third pick, even with names like Kyle Wright and Brendan McKay still on the board. The high school lefty from the small town of Whiteville, North Carolina, population fewer than 6,000, is everything scouts love. Aside from being lefty, he's 6'3" and well built, can hit the mid 90's with his fastball, has a big, hard curveball that can put batters away, and has made progress on a changeup. He's extremely competitive in the best way, bringing a bulldog mentality to the mound that reminds some of fellow rural North Carolina lefty Madison Bumgarner. Gore has a lot of wasted movement in his delivery which leads pessimists to believe he'll land in the bullpen, but optimists, myself included, see the opportunity to streamline everything and possibly add even more velocity and sharpness. He has true top of the rotation potential, but as a high school pitcher, he naturally comes with the considerable risk of completely flopping. Gore signed for $6.7 million, which is $31,900 above slot.

2-39: C Luis Campusano (my rank: 51)
Another riser in this draft class, Campusano hit his way to the top of the catching class with M.J. Melendez (Royals, 2-52), coming from high school near Augusta, Georgia. The first thing scouts noticed was that he came into the season in excellent physical condition, which is a plus both on the field, where it helps performance, and off the field, where it hints towards a strong work ethic. While he doesn't project to win any Gold Gloves, he's good enough behind the plate to be able to stick there, though high school catchers have a low success rate historically. At the plate, he is power over contact, showing plus power from a simple swing, but he hasn't proven his ability to make contact against advanced pitching. If he can't make contact, he can't get to his power, and that renders everything else useless. He's got some Rod Barajas in him, but he could end up a far superior player to the former catcher. He'll have to make contact to do so, though. He signed for $1.3 million, $460,700 below slot.

CBB-69: C Blake Hunt (my rank: 96)
Hunt, a southern California high school product, will have a lot of work to do to reach his ceiling. He's great defensively, actually better behind the plate than Campusano, but his swing has more issues. Hunt possesses some power potential with his short, powerful swing, but he doesn't get much extension and his stride doesn't gain any ground. The Padres will have to toy with both the stride and his swing path, giving him lots of bust potential, but between him and Campusano, the Padres are hoping to get their next MLB catcher. Hunt signed for $1.6 million, $751,400 above slot.

3-78: OF Mason House (my rank: 85)
For some reason, all of the public baseball video on House amounts to one swing, so I have to lean heavily on online scouting reports. He's a power left handed bat who scouts had a tough time evaluating because he didn't play any major showcase events, and his small town Whitehouse, Texas high school didn't play any high level competition. From that one in-game swing I saw online, the swing seems a bit long, but being raw is forgivable in his case. He's a good athlete who can run, so he's not a one-dimensional bat, and he'll be an interesting prospect to follow. House signed for $732,200, at slot for the 78th pick.

4-108: RHP Sam Keating (unranked)
Keating is on the right trajectory, with his velocity and stuff improving steadily over the past year. He began sitting consistently in the low 90's this spring, and his slider and curveball have become more distinct from each other. He has a loose arm and an easy delivery, so as long as he stays healthy and continues his current path, he could be a big league starter. Standing 6'3", he's a classic starting pitching prospect. Keating signed for $900,000, which is $403,000 over slot.

26-768: OF Daniel Cabrera (my rank: 73)
Cabrera won't sign here in the 26th round, likely instead attending LSU, but he's a solid hit over power prospect. He has a quick left handed, line drive swing, and he should be a safe bet to hit for average and get on base at higher levels. However, most of his other tools are at or below average, and he isn't overall an exciting prospect. That could change after three years in Baton Rouge, but for now, he'll have to prove he can be more than a one-dimensional player.

Others: 5th rounder Jonny Homza comes from South Anchorage High School in Alaska, but the Padres were able to buy him out of attending Hawaii for $250,000, which is $121,200 under slot. He was drafted as a third baseman despite his ability to catch, and he has a strong swing that is similar to Blake Hunt's. As an extreme cold weather player, he has a lot of work to do, but it could pay off. 9th rounder Alex Cunningham was an integral part of Coastal Carolina's run to the 2016 NCAA Championship, going 10-4 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, but he returned to school this year and was even better. As a senior, he went 7-2 with a 2.63 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP, striking out 117 batters in 106 innings while walking just 24. Already 23, he should be a quick mover through the minors, already seeing a promotion to High Class A Lake Elsinore. 10th rounder Dominic Taccolini played four years at Arkansas, alongside the likes of Andrew Benintendi, Zach Jackson, and Blaine Knight, but he never quite put it together on the mound. He finished with a decent senior year, going 4-1 with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP against tough SEC competition, striking out 49 in 51 innings. Taccolini will also be a quick mover through the minors, likely as a reliever whose stuff could suddenly jump forward in pro ball. 19th rounder Nick Feight was a big reason that UNC-Wilmington's offense was among the most feared in college baseball in 2016, slashing .349/.412/.726 with 21 home runs against admittedly weak Colonial Athletic Association competition. He took a small step back in 2017, slashing .293/.355/.536 with 15 home runs as a junior, and as a first baseman, his bat will have to carry him. The Northern Virginia native (Battlefield HS) performed reasonably well on the Cape (.270/.316/.416), but he's likely an organizational bat unless he can take a big step forward offensively.

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