Showing posts with label Cayden Wallace. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cayden Wallace. Show all posts

Saturday, August 20, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: Kansas City Royals

Full list of draftees

From Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar to Asa Lacy, the Royals have leaned heavily on college pitching lately to mixed results. This year, they started off their class with two college hitters, and in my opinion, they nailed those two picks. Both Gavin Cross and Cayden Wallace have a chance to hit in the middle of the lineup for a very long time, and they'll fit in great with that young core led by Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto, and co. After Cross and Wallace, KC moved back to college pitching and selected six such players with their next seven picks, targeting power arms that are toeing the line between starter and reliever profiles. In all, eleven of their twenty picks were college pitchers, following the precedent they've set in prior drafts. Right before wrapping things up, they did nab a fascinating two-way player out of the Bakersfield high school ranks in the twentieth round, so Austin Charles will be a very fun one to follow.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-9: OF Gavin Cross, Virginia Tech. My rank: #8.
Slot value: $5.2 million. Signing bonus: $5.2 million.
The highest draft pick in Virginia Tech history, beating out 2002 12th overall pick Joe Saunders, Gavin Cross was right in the middle of the Hokies' best ever season this year, slashing .328/.411/.660 with 17 home runs and a 41/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. That comes on the heels of an equally strong sophomore season in 2021 and a torrid .455/.474/.879 run with the US Collegiate National Team last summer, so he has as much offensive track record as anybody in this draft. Cross is a big, physical presence in the box at 6'3" and strapped with muscle, creating very difficult at bats for opposing pitchers. He hits the ball extremely hard, regularly posting elite exit velocities on hard line, deep fly balls, and scorching grounders all around the park. It translates to plus game power that could produce 30 or more home runs per season, and he will tap it in pro ball. Cross has always shown strong pitch recognition and bat to ball skills, but he had previously been an aggressive hitter that was prone to chasing just because he knew he could hit pitches out of the zone anyways. He cut back on those chases this spring and bumped his walk rate up from 7.3% a year ago to 10.7% this year, while also cutting his strikeout rate from 20.5% to 14.6%. Now, his advanced eye works to his favor, enabling him to confidently track good pitches to hit while letting the bad ones go. I see an above average hit tool with plus power, which would fit right in the middle of the lineup. Very athletic for his size, the northeast Tennessee native handled center field for the Hokies this spring and looked right at home, and the Royals have kept him there so far and will see what happens. If he gets pushed to right field by a quicker defender, which I would say is more likely than not, he has the strong arm to profile there and plenty of bat. Expect Cross to move rather quickly through the system, as he's already slashing .357/.449/.786 with four home runs and an 11/6 strikeout to walk ratio over eleven games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Columbia.

2-49: 3B Cayden Wallace, Arkansas. My rank: #25.
Slot value: $1.58 million. Signing bonus: $1.7 million ($115,100 above slot value).
I was a big fan of Cayden Wallace out of high school, and then he immediately jumped into a deep Arkansas lineup as a freshman in 2021 and held his own, appearing in all but three games. He took another step forward in 2022, slashing .298/.387/.553 with 16 home runs and a 56/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games. I've gone a bit back and forth on him throughout his time at Arkansas, at times feeling a little concerned about his plate discipline and wondering if he had the power to back it up, but ultimately as the 2022 season went on, I leaned all in on the slugging third baseman and I absolutely love this pick. Wallace represents somewhat of a hometown pick for Kansas City, having grown up in the small north-central Arkansas town of Greenbrier before heading up to Fayetteville for college, just three and  half hours south of Kauffman Stadium on I-49. Like Gavin Cross, he shows the propensity for big time exit velocities, this time from the right side, showing very impressive power to the pull side but plenty enough to drive the ball out the other way as well. He lofts the ball well with some uppercut to his swing path, but he still keeps the barrel in the hitting zone for a long time and doesn't swing through many hittable pitches. A draft eligible sophomore, he only turned 21 after the draft, and there is still some work to be done on pitch selection, as he can be a little prone to chasing offspeed stuff. Given his age, it's nothing glaring and I don't expect it to be too much of an issue, and he has the chance to be an above average contact hitter to go along with plus power if he can tighten that up. Wallace has split reviews on his defense, with some thinking he would fit better in right field, but he's a third baseman for now and nobody questions his absolute cannon for an arm. He's a very good athlete and I think he'll stick at third with a little more refinement, which again brings his youth into the equation. He may not move quite as quickly as Cross, but I think the ceiling is very comparable. Like Cross, he's off to a red hot start and slashing .353/.488/.559 with one home run and a 6/8 strikeout to walk ratio over ten games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Columbia.

3-87: RHP Mason Barnett, Auburn. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $724,600. Signing bonus: $697,500 ($27,100 below slot value).
Mason Barnett is a very interesting arm with a lot of talent that hasn't quite put it all together yet. It's the kind of pitcher that could make serious strides in the right organization, but I don't think that's the Royals, who have struggled to develop college pitching lately. Barnett has gradually earned more and more time in the rotation for Auburn, this year posting a 4.38 ERA and an 83/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 63.2 innings, mostly as a starter. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can hit 98 in short stints, with a pretty flat approach angle that plays down because hitters track it well out of his long arm action. He rips off a plus slider with sharp sweeping action, while also looping in a bigger curveball with depth that needs to add power and an average changeup. It's an arsenal full of potential, but he mainly pitches off his fastball and that lack of deception, in addition to fringy command, has kept him from putting up loud numbers. The 6' righty has a big frame and looks durable, but in order to stick as a starter, he'll have to get more consistent with his command and more effectively mix his pitches. If he does end up in the bullpen, the North Georgia product could be nasty with that fastball/slider combination and flip in a few curves and changeups to keep hitters off balance.

4-115: RHP Steven Zobac, California. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $528,000. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($28,000 below slot value).
Steven Zobac was a two-way player early in his California career, and as an underclassman actually looked more natural in the box than he did on the mound. But the arm strength was always there and he transitioned to pitching full time this spring, finishing with a 4.09 ERA and a 72/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings. His fastball has ticked up, now comfortably sitting in the low 90's as a starter and touching 96 in relief, coming in with flat plane and plenty of hop that makes it tough to square up. He works in an upper 80's cutter/slider with some late bite, also showing a bigger curveball and an average changeup. As he gets further and further into his pitching-only career, he has a chance to really sharpen that whole arsenal and potentially stick as a starter if he can hold onto average command. The 6'3" righty has projection remaining and is trending in the right direction, and he has a chance to turn into a #4 starter or a power reliever in time.

5-145: LHP Hunter Patteson, Central Florida. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $394,500. Signing bonus: $394,500.
Hunter Patteson was draft eligible last year, but with a 5.50 ERA as a swingman for UCF, he opted to return to school to build his stock. He came out of the gate red hot in 2022, posting a 1.82 ERA and a 41/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.2 innings and teaming with Connor Staine to give the Knights one of the best one-two punches in the country. Unfortunately, like Staine he got hurt in April, and in this case that led to Tommy John surgery that ended his season prematurely. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to 96, showing serious hop that helps him miss more bats than the velocity says it should. The 6'4" lefty adds a slider and a changeup that are both solid average pitches, and his command has improved considerably during his time in Orlando. Royals fans will have to wait until 2023 to see Patteson on the mound, but once he does, he has the arm strength, command, and arsenal to start and potentially move quickly through the system. Given that he'll be turning 23 when that time comes, it also may make more sense to just stick him in the bullpen and let him pitch off that fastball, which could be overpowering in short stints.

6-175: C Hayden Dunhurst, Mississippi. My rank: #172.
Slot value: $298,800. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($1,200 above slot value).
This is a really interesting pick that has a chance to look like a steal. Hayden Dunhurst was a well-known draft name out of high school in 2019, but made it to campus at Mississippi and a .280/.385/.435 sophomore season put him squarely in the first round conversation as recently as six months ago. However, he was banged up early in the 2022 season and never got it going at the plate, finishing with an ugly .231/.370/.385 line, six home runs, and a 69/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. Entering the season, he was noted for his strong plate discipline and all-fields contact ability in addition to underlying above average raw power, and 2022 was supposed to be a matter of him showing he could tap both without sacrificing the other. Unfortunately, he wasn't able to show either the hit tool or the power, leading to both that sub-.400 slugging percentage and a strikeout rate north of 30%. He packs a lot of compact strength into a shorter 5'11" frame, so getting back to showing that above average power in games is not out of the question. He's patient at the plate, his at bats seemed to speed up on him in 2022 and it really brings the swing and miss into question, so I'd be more confident in the power coming back than the hit tool. Fortunately, the southern Mississippi native is an excellent defender with an absolute cannon behind the plate, with improving glovework as well that looks like it should be above average. He'll certainly stick back there and the defense will buy his bat plenty of time to catch up, with a good shot at becoming a glove-first backup catcher if he can take better control of his at bats. The Royals' farm system is not very deep, but catching is a strong point between MJ Melendez (no longer prospect eligible), Luca Tresh, Kale Emshoff, and Carter Jensen. Dunhurst will really have to see a resurgence in his bat to push past those guys. So far, he has three hits in seven at bats, including two doubles, to go along with more walks (3) than strikeouts (2) through three games in the Arizona Complex League.

7-205: RHP Mack Anglin, Clemson. My rank: #201.
Slot value: $233,600. Signing bonus: $231,100 ($2,500 below slot value).
Mack Anglin earned draft interest as a sophomore last year, but turned down the Nationals in the thirteenth round to return to school. The results were more or less the same, so now he'll head to the Royals with intriguing upside but considerable work to be done after posting a 4.48 ERA and a 78/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 76.1 innings as a full time starter for Clemson. Anglin has nasty pure stuff, probably the best in this entire Royals draft class, starting with a low to mid 90's fastball that gets up to 98 with explosive life. He throws a pair of vicious breaking balls in a curveball and slider, both of which flash plus with nasty, hard bite, while his changeup is a fringy fourth pitch. Despite explosive pure stuff, the Ohio native struck out only 22.6% of his opponents this spring as he regularly fell behind in the count and and became to predictable. He has a violent delivery that features a lot of late movement, causing him to struggle to repeat his release point and miss spots regularly. For that reason, he is almost certainly a reliever in pro ball, where his stuff could tick up even further as he really lets loose in short stretches. I am a bit concerned about that low strikeout rate but the idea of his stuff eating in the bullpen really intrigues me.

10-295: OF Levi Usher, Louisville. My rank: #223.
Slot value: $153,600. Signing bonus: $72,500 ($81,100 below slot value).
Levi Usher is an interesting senior sign, even if he lacks much upside. A native of Fairfax, Iowa, he graduated from Prairie High School in nearby Cedar Rapids and began his college career literally across the street at Kirkwood JC. There he was one of the best hitters on the Iowa JuCo circuit and made his way to Louisville, where he got off to a red hot start in 2020 before the pandemic shutdown and earned some first round consideration. Unfortunately he struggled to make any impact at all in 2021, lost his starting spot, and elected to return to school, where he rebounded to slash .285/.362/.455 with seven home runs, 36 stolen bases, and a 67/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. Usher stands out first and foremost as a heady player with tremendous understanding of the game, which at the very least makes him a good guy to have around in your system working alongside younger guys. He's a plus runner and his speed actually plays better than that in games due to his instincts, and in 182 career games between Kirkwood and Louisville he stole 109 bases in 117 attempts for an elite 93.2% success rate. That speed also helps him in center field, where he's a plus defender with great instincts. The bat isn't quite as impactful as we thought it was a couple years ago, showing more line drive and gap power than true over the fence power. Combine that with a 23.9% strikeout rate this spring, and you have a 45 hitter with 40 power that likely will never hit enough to hold down an every day role. However, if he can put just enough balls in the gaps to hold his own in the lineup as a backup, that speed and defense could be valuable in Kansas City. Usher is struggling so far in the Arizona Complex League, picking up just one hit in eighteen at bats with six strikeouts to three walks through six games.

11-325: RHP David Sandlin, Oklahoma. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($275,000 against bonus pool).
If you stretch your imagination a bit, David Sandlin represents a semi-hometown pick in the same way that Cayden Wallace does. A product of Owasso High School in the northern Tulsa suburbs, he grew up less than four hours southwest of Kansas City before heading the opposite direction to Eastern Oklahoma State in Wilburton and finally the University of Oklahoma. He was inconsistent throughout the season, posting a 5.59 ERA and a 102/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 95 innings, but like so many other members of this Sooners team, he came up big when he was needed most. He has plenty of pure stuff, sitting in the low to mid 90's with a fastball that can reach 98 in addition to a slew of secondary stuff. His slider is his best pitch, with hard sweeping action that generates ugly swings, while his curveball is a little softer and deeper and his firm changeup provides another look. Sandlin comes from a higher release point and lacks deception, so hits stuff gets hit harder than it should when it catches too much plate. Tightening his fringe-average command will be helpful if he wants to remain a starter, as he does have the projectable 6'4" frame and deep arsenal to do so. If he does move back to the bullpen, he'll probably work off his fastball/slider combination and let an extra tick of velocity help make up for his somewhat generic fastball.

20-595: SS/RHP Austin Charles, Stockdale HS [CA]. My rank: #105.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $429,500 ($304,500 against bonus pool).
With their final pick of the draft, the Royals made a big splash by diverting Austin Charles away from a UC Santa Barbara commitment for top-150 money. One of two interesting two-way players in the Bakersfield high school ranks this spring, he'll get a chance to do both in the Royals system while his counterpart, Cutter Coffey, is a shortstop only in the Red Sox system. He's a big, lanky kid at 6'6", showing off plenty of athleticism and just oozing with potential. As a pitcher, he sits in the low 90's and can get up to 96, adding in a solid slider and a fringy changeup. The fastball is fairly straight and the offspeed stuff is inconsistent, so you're really buying the projection here. In addition to that big frame, he has a very quick arm and gets down the mound well with good extension, so there is a ton to work with. With some patience and the right development, the sky is the limit for him on the mound. His bat has also rapidly been improving, and I actually like him better as a position player. He shows plus raw power when he connects, with a simple right handed swing in which he keeps his hands inside the ball and lets his natural strength and leverage do the work. He has previously bee susceptible to breaking balls, but he's trending in the right direction and taking better at bats. At shortstop, he shows off his athleticism well and while he's not quite as quick with his feet and glovework as perhaps he could be, he may just need more time to develop and grow into his body. With that cannon of an arm, he would fit extremely well at third base. I'm very interested to see how this goes, and he's already gotten into two Arizona Complex League games as a hitter, picking up two hits in seven at bats with one strikeout.

Sunday, May 22, 2022

2022 MLB Draft: One potential hometown pick for every AL/NL Central Team

This is the second installment in the three part hometown pick series, following the AL and NL West (you can now find the AL/NL East here). If you've followed me for any amount of time, you probably know that I love a good hometown pick. Over the offseason, I recreated all thirty teams if they only used players from their "home turf," and last year I practiced this same exercise for the draft. Last year, the central divisions actually followed along somewhat, with the Royals taking both Carter Jensen (Park Hill HS) and Ben Kudrna (Blue Valley Southwest HS) out of the Kansas City area and the Brewers drafting Oak Creek native Alex Binelas out of Louisville, though they lost their good standing by almost immediately trading him to Boston. With that, let's look at some hometown pick options for the AL and NL Central.

Chicago Cubs: 3B Estevan Moreno, Montini Catholic HS, Lombard, IL
Hometown: Hanover Park, IL. My rank: #95.
Two years ago, the Cubs drafted shortstop Ed Howard out of Mount Carmel HS on the South Side, and they'll have plenty of opportunities to do it again this year. Their #7 overall pick is probably a little bit too early to grab Oswego native Noah Schultz, who figures to go somewhere in the middle to back of the first round if signable, but head a little bit north and east and you have Hanover Park's Estevan Moreno, who is having a strong spring at Montini Catholic HS in Lombard. I'm a big fan of Moreno, who could fit somewhere in the third to fifth round range for the Cubs if they want to keep him home rather than let him move on to Notre Dame for school. He does a lot of things well at the plate, using an all fields approach that effectively helps him put barrel to baseball with regularity. Come into his wheelhouse, though, and there is plenty of strength in his 6'2" to really turn on the ball, and the hope is that in time, he'll learn to spread that power out to all fields. That would create a very favorable offensive profile combining power and a professional approach if it works out. There isn't as much upside on the defensive side, as he's an average athlete that can handle third base for now but will have to work to stay there rather than move to first base or an outfield corner. Moreno is a smart, driven kid that loves baseball and should thrive in a competitive environment in pro ball.
Other options: LHP Noah Schultz (Oswego East HS, IL), OF Clark Elliott (Michigan via Barrington, IL), RHP Owen Murphy (Riverside-Brookfield HS, Riverside, IL), OF Ryan Cermak (Illinois State via Riverside, IL), RHP AJ Izzi (Oswego East HS, IL)

Chicago White Sox: OF Ryan Cermak, Illinois State.
Hometown: Riverside, IL. My rank: #71.
I strongly considered Oswego East HS lefty Noah Schultz here, but even though the White Sox broke their streak of staying on the college side with Indiana high schooler Colson Montgomery last year, I think Schultz might be a hair too risky for them as a high school pitcher coming off a bout with mono. I honestly think he still has a decent chance of ending up on the South Side, but instead I'll go with Illinois State breakout star Ryan Cermak. Cermak attended Riverside-Brookfield High School just west of the Chicago city limits, then after hitting .284/.349/.553 as a sophomore but running up a 25.1% strikeout rate, he has improved significantly in all three slash categories this spring while dropping that strikeout rate. Though he's four inches shorter, he reminds me of Cincinnati's Joey Wiemer a few years ago as a super athlete from a mid-major Midwestern school with tools all over the place. Cermak has plus raw power that he has tapped very consistently against MVC pitching this spring, effectively channeling some moving parts in his load into a very simple, compact right handed swing. He's very aggressive at the plate but he has been at least a little more disciplined this spring, lending hope to an average hit tool. Given his immense athleticism, you may not be surprised to learn he's a plus runner with a plus arm that could be an asset in center field going forward. This seems to be a profile the White Sox could like, maybe not in the first round at pick #26 but potentially in the second round at pick #62 or in the third round at #101 if he slides a bit.
Other options: LHP Noah Schultz (Oswego East HS, IL), SS Ryan Ritter (Kentucky via Tinley Park, IL), 3B/RHP Jack Brannigan (Notre Dame via Orland Park, IL), RHP AJ Izzi (Oswego East HS, IL), LHP Cole Kirschsieper (Illinois via Frankfort, IL)

Cincinnati Reds: RHP Jacob Miller, Liberty Union HS, Baltimore, OH
Hometown: Baltimore, OH. My rank: #55.
The Reds love their prep bats, but there are none on my radar in that Ohio/Kentucky/Indiana area. They haven't drafted and signed a high school pitcher in any round since Lyon Richardson and Yomil Maysonet in 2018 (a year after Hunter Greene), but with five of the first 94 picks, they have some extra money to play around with and they have two really good options in their extended backyard. I took a good, hard look at Indianapolis righty Andrew Dutkanych, a personal favorite of mine, but ultimately decided to stay in state with another rising righty in Jacob Miller. Miller attends Liberty Union High School in Baltimore, a small Fairfield County town about half an hour southwest of Columbus, where he has been turning heads with a strong spring. Miller has a powerful right arm, sitting in the low to mid 90's and hitting 97 with his fastball, but he makes his money with a wicked curveball that ranks among the best in the class. He also adds a solid slider and changeup, giving him a full arsenal to succeed as a starting pitcher. The 6'2" righty fills up the strike zone well and has a sturdy frame, furthering that starter projection. Miller wasn't quite as consistent later in his high school season and does need to shore up his in-zone command a bit, but it's a very enticing profile for the Reds' picks at #32, #55, and #73. With a Louisville commitment in hand, he's likely to be very expensive at pick #73 and would still likely require an over slot bonus at #55, but Cincinnati has the money if they want to go that route.
Other options: RHP Andrew Dutkanych (Brebeuf Jesuit HS, IN), OF Alec Sayre (Wright State via Dover, OH), C Dalton Rushing (Louisville via Brighton, TN), 3B Ben Metzinger (Louisville via Louisville, KY), RHP Jared Poland (Louisville via Fishers, IN)

Cleveland Guardians: RHP Mack Anglin, Clemson
Hometown: Marengo, OH. My rank: unranked.
The Guardians like college arms and high school bats. There aren't any big name prep bats in Northern Ohio that I know of (and only one position player, Medina's Luke Raley, from Northern Ohio even appeared in an MLB game in 2021), so we'll go with a college arm. In 2021, Cleveland drafted a whole host of college arms that had gone unselected in the 2020 draft for one reason or another, including with five of their first eight picks, and in this case I have them doing that again in 2022. Mack Anglin could have gone somewhere in the middle of day two had he been signable, but ultimately opted to head back to Clemson and bet on himself. Anglin grew up in the tiny Central Ohio town of Marengo, home to 342 residents between Columbus and Mansfield on I-71, then headed south to Clemson for college. He flashed some of the nastiest pure stuff in the ACC last spring, when he struck out 75 batters over 56.1 innings as a draft-eligible sophomore, but he bet on himself and headed back to school. This year has been more or less much of the same, so if Cleveland wants to bring him back home, he probably figures once more somewhere in the middle of day two. Anglin runs his fastball into the mid 90's but stands out the most for his ability to spin the ball. His curveball is a plus pitch with vicious spin rates and his slider is a distinct, above average pitch in its own right, giving him numerous big league out pitches with which to attack hitters. Unfortunately, his command has been below average throughout his career and with a high effort delivery and a fringy changeup, he looks ticketed to the bullpen. Given how much starting pitching depth Cleveland has in the minors, they can stomach that and hope his stuff can take yet another step forward in the bullpen. I'd be really interested to see how that plays in short stints.
Other options: RHP Jacob Miller (Liberty Union HS, Baltimore, OH), 3B Zach Dezenzo (Ohio State via Alliance, OH), SS Phillip Glasser (Indiana via Tallmadge, OH), LHP Drake Batcho (Florida International via Warren, OH), SS Cole Young (North Allegheny HS, Wexford, PA)

Detroit Tigers: RHP Brock Porter, Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS, MI
Hometown: Milford, MI. My rank: #19.
I strongly considered having some fun and giving the Tigers Porter's battery mate Ike Irish, but ultimately, this was a match made in heaven and could really happen. The Tigers love young, hard throwing pitchers and have a history of drafting them from Beau Burrows to Jackson Jobe. Brock Porter could be next, and he would give them a Metro Detroit native. Porter grew up in Milford, just over thirty miles northwest of downtown in western Oakland County, and he commutes back east to play for the powerhouse Orchard Lake St. Mary's program that produced Alex Mooney last year and also includes Irish, as mentioned. Porter is one of the hardest throwers in the prep class, comfortably sitting in the mid 90's and reaching triple digits at his best, with the pitch really jumping on hitters. It's not just a case of him going all out, as he has the arm strength to hold that mid 90's velocity deep into his starts. He throws two breaking balls in a loopy curveball and an inconsistent slider, though the latter flashes plus at its best and the former could tighten into an out pitch as he develops. Unlike most power high school arms, he actually stands out the most for his changeup, a plus pitch that has really dazzled hitters everywhere he's gone. Also unlike most preps that throw as hard as he does, the 6'4" righty does a good job of filling up the strike zone, though he does need to get a bit better about hitting his spots. Still, when you throw that hard, you don't have to be perfect. Porter has a clean, athletic delivery, but there is some head whack to be cognizant of. One small drawback in the profile is age, as he turns 19 more than a month before the draft and is older than some college freshmen. It will be expensive to buy him out of a Clemson commitment but at pick #12, Detroit shouldn't have to go too far above slot value.
Other options: C Ike Irish (Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS, MI via Hudsonville, MI), OF Gregory Pace (Edison HS, Detroit, MI), RHP Andrew Taylor (Central Michigan via Alto, MI), OF Nolan Schubart (Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS, MI via Durand, MI), OF Clark Elliott (Michigan via Barrington, IL)

Kansas City Royals: RHP Karson Milbrandt, Liberty HS, MO
Hometown: Liberty, MO. My rank: #123.
Last year, the Royals not only drafted the Ben Kudrna (Blue Valley Southwest HS), hometown pick I gave them in last year's article, they also made it double and grabbed Carter Jensen (Park Hill HS) as well. This year, I'll go back to the high school ranks again and put Karson Milbrandt on their radar, who is having a nice spring at Liberty High School northeast of the city. He stands out first and foremost for his fastball, typically a low 90's pitch that has gotten up to 96 this year. Coming from a low arm slot, the pitch features huge spin rates and a ton of arm side run, making it one of the tougher fastballs to square up in the class. He's gotten more consistent with his offspeed stuff this year, showing an above average slider and flipping in an average curveball. His changeup is behind, which isn't uncommon for prep arms, but we have the chance for a full starter's arsenal from a unique slot. Milbrandt's command comes and goes and there is certainly reliever risk, especially combined with the lower slot and his smaller 6'1" frame, but he's on the younger side having only turned 18 in April and has time to fill out. Perhaps most importantly for Kansas City, his Vanderbilt commitment will make him an expensive sign, especially if they wait until their third round pick to grab him. High school pitchers are unpredictable, but the second round feels a bit rich for right now.
Other options: 2B Robert Moore (Arkansas via Leawood, KS), RHP Jacob Misiorowski (Crowder JC via Grain Valley, MO), RHP Ben Bybee (Blue Valley Southwest HS, Overland Park, KS), LHP Jake Bennett (Oklahoma via Bixby, OK), RHP Carter Rustad (Missouri via Kansas City, MO)

Milwaukee Brewers: SS Gavin Kilen, Milton HS, WI
Hometown: Milton, WI. My rank: #53.
Like the Royals, the Brewers took my advice and drafted last year's hometown pick Alex Binelas (Oak Creek native) in the third round, though they promptly traded him to Boston in the Hunter Renfroe deal. They like their young hitters and have seen some success from guys like Felix Valerio, Joey Wiemer, Sal Frelick, and Jackson Chourio, even if they're still waiting on Garrett Mitchell and Hedbert Perez to find their groove. For that reason, there's a chance they could go out to that I-90 corridor and grab Gavin Kilen out of Milton High School just north of Janesville. Kilen can really, really play, utilizing a very mature approach at the plate and strong bat to ball skills to make contact as consistently as anybody in the class outside of that top tier. He also plays a slick shortstop with plenty of range. One the down side, the Milton native is far from the most physical player in the class, with a skinny 5'11" frame that does not produce much power to this point, especially since he's more focused on all fields, line drive contact. Kilen also has some arm strength, but not quite the cannon teams look for at shortstop and he may fit better at second base, where he would be above average. Coming into the season, Kilen and potential top five pick Jackson Holliday were very fairly similar players, but Holliday has gotten much stronger and had an electric spring while Kilen has underwhelmed just a touch. If his ends up being a late bloomer physically like Holliday, he could end up an extremely well-rounded player in the end. Committed to Louisville like so many others from the area in recent years, he could go get stronger with the Cardinals, but it would be fun to see the Brewers jump on him in the second or CBB round.
Other options: LHP Connor Prielipp (Alabama via Tomah, WI), 3B Max Wagner (Clemson via Green Bay, WI), OF Tommy Specht (Wahlert Catholic HS, Dubuque, IA), RHP Jack Washburn (Mississippi via Webster, WI), C Drake Baldwin (Missouri State via Madison, WI)

Minnesota Twins: RHP Adam Mazur, Iowa
Hometown: Woodbury, MN. My rank: #32.
There are two Washington County products that figure to go in the top fifty or so picks in this draft between Tennessee's Drew Gilbert and Iowa's Adam Mazur. Minnesota's second round pick doesn't roll around until #48 and may not get a shot at either, but between the two, Mazur is probably more likely to be available (getting blown up by Indiana recently doesn't hurt his chances of reaching #48 either). The pick would make sense, too, after the Twins spent last year's second round pick on another funky Big Ten arm in Michigan's Steven Hajjar. Mazur went to Woodbury High School in St. Paul's eastern suburbs, where he played against nearby Stillwater High School's stars Gilbert and Will Frisch (now at Oregon State) and alongside Marlins top prospect Max Meyer. He's well-travelled throughout the Upper Midwest, having begun his career at South Dakota State before transferring back east to Iowa, where he's seen his stock rise significantly. Mazur sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and gets up to 97 with arm side run, while a plus slider with deep bite is his best secondary. He also shows a solid curveball and changeup, giving him a full arsenal. The 6'4" righty is plenty projectable and is really growing into his body well, getting more consistent with his mechanics and improving his command along the way. He has a chance to be an impact starting pitcher and he could do so at home in Minnesota.
Other options: OF Drew Gilbert (Tennessee via Stillwater, MN), RHP Will Frisch (Oregon State via Stillwater, MN), 1B Peyton Williams (Iowa via Johnston, IA), 3B Mac Horvath (North Carolina via Rochester, MN), RHP Seth Halvorsen (Tennessee via Plymouth, MN)

Pittsburgh Pirates: SS Cole Young, North Allegheny HS, Wexford, PA
Hometown: Wexford, PA. My rank: #36.
The Pirates went all out last year when they had the largest bonus pool and signed Anthony Solometo, Lonnie White Jr., and Bubba Chandler to massive over slot bonuses, and this year they can be aggressive again with the fourth largest pool of any team and three of the first 44 picks. While Cole Young won't be in play at the fourth overall pick, he makes sense as a reasonable over slot candidate at #36 or #44 if he wants to stay home. Young attends North Allegheny High School in Wexford, a northern suburb of Pittsburgh within a few miles of David Bednar's Mars Area High School and Neil Walker's Pine-Richland High School. In stark contrast to fellow prep shortstops Jackson Holliday, Mikey Romero, and Max Martin, Young has seen his stock hold extremely steady throughout the cycle, a testament to his simple, consistent style of play. He's a very heady ballplayer that makes, you guessed it, very consistent hard contact at the plate, using a line drive approach that serves him just as well against high-octane showcase arms as it does against the Pittsburgh-area high school competition back home. He finds the sweet spot regularly on pitches inside and outside the zone, handling velocity and quality breaking balls with ease. While that contact-over-power approach does limit his game power a bit, he produces higher exit velocities than you'd expect given his skinny six foot frame when he does decide to turn on one. Young is also a strong defender with a good chance to stick at shortstop, further adding to his value. Committed to Duke, he will likely be an expensive sign.
Other options: OF Paxton Kling (Central HS, Roaring Spring, PA), RHP Jake Madden (Northwest Florida State JC via Enola, PA), C Matt Wood (Penn State via Gibsonia, PA), OF Derek Orndorff (Liberty via Mill Run, PA), RHP Cameron Weston (Michigan via Canonsburg, PA)

St. Louis Cardinals: 3B Cayden Wallace, Arkansas
Hometown: Greenbrier, AR. My rank: #62.
It's a down year for talent in the Eastern Missouri/Southern Illinois region this year, so I had to cast my net a little wider to bring a hometown pick to St. Louis. Living in Texas, I've learned that Arkansas (especially northern and eastern Arkansas) is deep Cardinals country, so I feel perfectly good going down to the Natural State to grab Cayden Wallace as the Cardinals' hometown pick. Wallace grew up in the small town of Greenbrier, about 45 minutes north of Little Rock and five and a half hours southwest of Busch Stadium. He was a big time prospect at Greenbrier High School that was good enough to hear his name called in the five round draft in 2020, but signability led him to Fayetteville instead where he has built his stock further. Seen as mostly a power hitter in high school, Wallace got on base at a .369 clip as a true freshman and .352 in the Cape Cod League and is now flirting with .400 this season as of this writing. He still possesses plus raw power from the right side, capable of producing big exit velocities and putting the ball out to all fields. Wallace is still learning pitch selection and can be susceptible to offspeed stuff, but he's improving and his ability to keep his barrel long through the zone helps him limit his strikeouts to a reasonable number. His future position is up in the air, as his cannon arm alone gives him a shot at third base, but he still has some work to do with the glove if he wants to stay there. He runs well for his size and could be a solid defender in right field. The Cardinals like these more or less complete college bats with some pop, so it would not be surprising to see Wallace head across the border to St. Louis. It seems unlikely they would bite with their 22nd overall pick unless he catches fire through the postseason, but if he's still available at pick #59, it would make a lot of sense. He probably fits about a dozen or so picks before that on talent alone but signability may play a factor as he's sophomore eligible and does not turn 21 until August.
Other options: C Dalton Rushing (Louisville via Brighton, TN), LHP Bradley Loftin (DeSoto Central HS, Southaven, MS), OF Kevin Graham (Mississippi via O'Fallon, MO), C Jimmy Obertop (Michigan via St. Louis, MO), RHP Collin Baumgartner (SIU Edwardsville via Brighton, IL)

Sunday, October 17, 2021

2022 MLB Draft: An early look at the SEC

2021 draftees: 68. Top school: Arkansas (9)
2021 preseason writeup (published 11/7/2020)

Top draftees:
1-2, Rangers: RHP Jack Leiter (Vanderbilt)
1-10, Mets: RHP Kumar Rocker (Vanderbilt)
1-14, Giants: RHP Will Bednar (Mississippi State)
1-19, Blue Jays: RHP Gunnar Hoglund (Mississippi)
2-40, Red Sox: OF Jud Fabian (Florida)
2-42, Diamondbacks: SS Ryan Bliss (Auburn)
2-44, Rockies: RHP Jaden Hill (Louisiana State)

Beyond hosting both College World Series final teams in Mississippi State, the SEC continued to show why it is college baseball's premier conference in 2021 by leading the way with 68 players drafted. Every team in the league had multiple players selected while five different schools saw at least seven players go in the draft. Meanwhile, Arkansas tied with Texas Tech for the second most players drafted of any individual school with nine, behind only UCLA's ten.

The SEC has always been known for premier pitching, with Vanderbilt righty Jack Leiter earning the largest signing bonus of any player in the draft and four pitchers going in the top nineteen picks a year ago. In 2022, however, the pendulum looks to have swung slightly to the position player side, with a deluge of big bats all jostling for position in the first round. By my count, I see about twelve players who are in a very good position to go in the first round, and while of course that won't be the case come July, it bodes well for the conference's chances of matching or bettering last year's mark of four first round draftees. The depth here is really impressive, and beyond the top couple of names, I really feel bad ranking any of these players outside of the top five and I see very little separation between the top and bottom of the list, which I extended to twelve after doing ten for the other conferences. One interesting trend I noticed was size, as the twelve players on the list average less than 6'1" in height and Hunter Barco (6'4"), the last player on the list, is the only one above 6'2". Not typical for a conference like this one.

1. 3B Jacob Berry, Louisiana State.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 6', 210 lbs. Born 5/5/2001. Hometown: Queen Creek, AZ.
2021: 17 HR, .352/.439/.676, 2 SB, 58/33 K/BB in 63 games.
LSU made a huge splash by hiring away Arizona head coach Jay Johnson this summer, and that move paid immediate dividends when all-everything slugger Jacob Berry decided to follow his coach across the country on Interstate 10. As a true freshman last spring (albeit the age of a sophomore), he was one of the best hitters in the entire country and served as the centerpiece to arguably college baseball's best lineup, slugging the Wildcats to their first College World Series appearance since 2016. He then cranked it up another notch with the US Collegiate National Team, slashing .387/.475/.871 with four home runs in eleven games against arguably the best amateur competition in the country. Berry may only be six feet tall, on the shorter side for a slugger, but he packs as much strength into that smaller frame as you could possibly expect. He trusts that strength and utilizes a simple, direct swing from both sides of the plate to tap into easy plus raw power very consistently in games, never having to sell out or swing out of his shoes to get there. The Phoenix-area product is a patient hitter that draws his walks and keeps his strikeouts to a reasonable level, and he's completely unfazed by high-end velocity and offspeed stuff. There is no doubt that Berry will handle the slight jump in competition from the Pac-12 to the SEC, and very few have any concerns about his ability to continue to produce at a high level immediately in pro ball once he's drafted. The bat will be the carrying tool, because he's a below average defender at third base with a choppy glove that may end up having to move to first base. He'll have plenty of bat to profile at first, but as a decent athlete with better mobility than you'd expect for his frame, a team may be able to run him out at the hot corner if they're patient and prioritize development in that part of his game. Regardless, offensive production is what earns the big bucks and he has it in spades, and between Berry (.352/.439/.676, 17 HR), Dylan Crews (.362/.453/.663, 18 HR), Cade Doughty (.308/.368/.546, 13 HR), Gavin Dugas (.295/.407/.641, 19 HR), and Tre' Morgan (.357/.441/.526, 6 HR), you'll be hard pressed to find a more intimidating lineup in 2022 than the one in Baton Rouge.

2. SS Carter Young, Vanderbilt.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 6', 180 lbs. Born 1/24/2001. Hometown: Selah, WA.
2021: 16 HR, .252/.341/.559, 9 SB, 84/31 K/BB in 61 games.
Jacob Berry has been a more consistent hitter to this point in his career, so I have him as the number one prospect in the conference, but Carter Young has the higher ceiling and probably a better chance to break through and earn a number one overall selection. An immediate contributor in his shortened freshman season in 2020 (.328/.373/.377), he carried that success over into the 2021 season and was one of the SEC's more dynamic players for much of the season, but he injured his shoulder in May and when he returned a few weeks later, he didn't look like the same player. The post-injury slump hurt his overall numbers and he finished with over a 30% strikeout rate, but after taking the summer off to rest and heal, his proponents expect huge things in 2022. Young, like Berry, is a switch hitter with power from both sides of the plate, taking healthy, uppercut hacks that really help him channel his lean strength into useable game power. The swing can get big at times, but when he's going right he's an extremely tough out that is equally willing to take you deep or slap a line drive the other way. There has always been swing and miss in his game, an issue exacerbated by the injury, but the hope is that a healthy 2022 combined with another year of development can help get that under control. On the flip side, the Washington state product is an above average defender who will definitely stick at shortstop, with a plus arm and plenty of range to positively impact the game with his glove. Teams love up the middle athletes early in the draft, and Vanderbilt is no stranger to producing that kind of talent between shortstop Dansby Swanson (first overall, 2015) and utility man Austin Martin (fifth overall, 2020). Young is a better defender than Martin and has more power than both, so how high he goes in 2022 ultimately hinges on the consistency of his hit tool.

3. RHP Peyton Pallette, Arkansas.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 175 lbs. Born 5/9/2001. Hometown: Benton, AR.
2021: 1-2, 4.02 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 67/20 K/BB in 56 innings.
The first time I heard Peyton Pallette's name was a roller coaster day and I wrote about it here. Having no idea who he was, I watched him start off an extremely experienced and disciplined top of the Texas lineup six up, six down for two innings, never throwing a fastball under 95 and striking out the last two (Big 12 #6 prospect Trey Faltine and 2021 #196 overall prospect Ivan Melendez) on six consecutive fastballs. The dude just blew me away. After that sensational season opening start, he went on to have some ups and downs including rough starts against Alabama (1 IP, 4 ER) and Ole Miss (4 IP, 7 ER), but he showed enough to stand firm as the top pitching prospect in the best conference in baseball. Pallette sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, tops out around 97, and gets tremendous ride on the pitch that just seems to explode onto hitters. He adds a plus-plus curveball with elite spin rates that looks to be one of the best breaking balls in the entire class, just crashing down on hitters as if it was spiked like a volleyball. To this point, the Little Rock-area native doesn't use his changeup as much and it's a below average pitch, so that will certainly be a point of development in 2022 and beyond. Despite standing a skinny 6'1", he's a strong kid that holds his velocity deep into starts through a low effort delivery, portending to a safe bet future in the rotation. Pallette often shows above average command but can get hit when he falls behind in the count or grooves one over the plate, so just a bit more consistency in that regard will be another thing to work on if he wants to be the first pitcher off the board on draft day. Relatively young for the class with a May birthday and younger than true sophomore Jacob Berry, there's as much talent in his right arm as anyone in college baseball and he looks the part of a high ceiling ace with some minor smoothing out of the edges in his game. The fastball/curveball combination is elite and the arm strength, body control, and athleticism are there, so the focus just needs to turn to his changeup and avoiding those lapses in command.

4. C Hayden Dunhurst, Mississippi.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 5'11", 220 lbs. Born 9/19/2000. Hometown: Carriere, MS.
2021: 7 HR, .280/.385/.435, 3 SB, 44/32 K/BB in 65 games.
Hayden Dunhurst hasn't quite put it all together yet, but strong defensive catchers who can produce in power conferences are always in demand and he firmly fits that profile. One of the top recruits nationally to reach campus from the 2019 high school ranks, Dunhurst has seen his game translate much more smoothly to the SEC than many anticipated and he now finds himself in the conversation as one of the top catchers in a loaded college class along with Mississippi State's Logan Tanner, Arizona's Daniel Susac, and Georgia Tech's Kevin Parada. He may be a bit undersized for a power hitter at 5'11", but like Jacob Berry he packs a ton of strength into that shorter frame and shows plus raw power from both sides of the plate. To this point, it hasn't shown up in games as much because he has mostly focused on making contact and hitting for average, opting to use the whole field and look for line drives rather than turn on and lift balls out of the park. Some would like to see the southern Mississippi product accept more swing and miss into his game to allow the power to play up, but regardless he has plenty of bat to profile as a starting catcher in the big leagues. Dunhurst really shines on defense, where his cannon arm ranks among the best in college baseball and can completely shut down the running game. While that plus-plus arm is his calling card, he's also come along very nicely with his glovework and figures to be an above average defender in that regard with a little more work, making the whole defensive package extremely enticing. Usually you have take a "glove-first" catcher to get that kind of defense and just hope his bat comes along, but Dunhurst has the bat. He can take it a step further by putting it all together in 2022 and tapping that power without letting his strikeout rate creep up too much, and if he can, he may be able to push to the front of the college catching pack.

5. C Logan Tanner, Mississippi State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 215 lbs. Born 11/10/2000. Hometown: Lucedale, MS.
2021: 15 HR, .287/.382/.525, 0 SB, 48/39 K/BB in 67 games.
Hayden Dunhurst and Logan Tanner have very similar profiles and are very close on this list, but I ultimately decided to put Dunhurst first because he's a switch hitter, his tools are a touch louder, and Tanner could not take advantage of Dunhurst's slower College National Team run (.160/.267/.160) as he struggled in his own right (.182/.217/.318). Tanner, also a southern Mississippi native who grew up a couple counties over from Dunhurst, was not as highly rated a recruit but was fantastic for Mississippi State in its run to the College World Series championship. He's a very well-rounded hitter that shows above average power from a compact right handed swing, effectively deploying the strength in his sturdy frame into usable game power. His patient, mature approach at the plate helps him tap that power consistently against good pitching, though his pure bat to ball skills are more average and he can sometimes get himself into trouble in deep counts. Behind the plate, he's an extremely good athlete that figures to be a plus defender, showing plenty of agility back there that is apparent to any observer. His plus arm plays up even further due to that agility, with the ability to throw from multiple angles as evidenced by this great throw against Ole Miss. With above average power that he taps in games, a strong enough approach to work in pro ball and make up for any deficiencies in his pure contact ability, and strong defense at a premium position, there are very few weaknesses in this profile and Tanner has a chance to work his way up as a starting catcher.

6. RHP Landon Sims, Mississippi State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 225 lbs. Born 1/3/2001. Hometown: Cumming, GA.
2021: 5-0, 1.44 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 100/15 K/BB in 56.1 innings.
I will usually be the low man on college relievers. Their track record is as poor as any demographic in the draft, as they're already often performing at maximum capacity and don't get that "bump" in stuff that college starters do in shifting to relief work in pro ball. That said, Landon Sims is different. Despite facing extremely tough competition in 2021, he still struck out 46.9% of his opponents with an elite fastball/slider combination that very few hitters have solved to this point. Sims sits in the mid 90's and will regularly touch 97 without exerting himself, and the pitch plays up further because he gets tremendous riding life that makes it appear to catch another gear halfway to the plate. If you want the dictionary definition of an "explosive" fastball, here's what it looks like from behind the plate. On top of that plus-plus pitch, we have another one in the slider. Sims' slider has devastating late bite, just diving into oblivion at the last possible second and leaving hitters looking silly like this. On top of having two plus-plus pitches, he shows above average command that really helps the two pitches play off each other, something you very rarely see from an amateur pitcher with that kind of stuff. He served as the closer in 2021, often pitching two or three innings at a time, but not because he lacks the ability to start. Mississippi State's staff was absolutely loaded and Sims' mentality on the mound fits perfectly in a closer's role, as he's a fire breathing competitor that will make damn sure you see nothing but his very best from start to finish. He lives for the big stage and relishes in high pressure situations, so he'll for sure be able to handle the bright lights of even MLB's larger markets. So why #6? First, the five players ahead of him project as a middle of the order slugger, an all-around catalyst, an ace, and back to back starting catchers, so that's all elite talent and nothing to be ashamed of falling behind. Second is the reliever thing, and you can see the track record in this tweet. When a starter converts to relieving in pro ball, his stuff takes a natural jump as he goes from throwing six or seven innings at a time to just one or two, but a college reliever doesn't get that bump. I really want to see how Sims' stuff holds up in a starting role in 2022 before feeling comfortable with him as a first round pick, especially as it pertains to holding velocity (he's usually about 93-95, T97 in relief) and keeping that devastating late snap on his slider. We also haven't seen much of a changeup because he really hasn't needed it. There's no reason not to think he can make that jump to starting, especially given his efficient delivery, ridiculous arm strength, strong command, and overall competitiveness on the mound, so he still ranks among the best in the SEC and therefore the best in college baseball. We'll just have to wait and see.

7. 3B Cade Doughty, Louisiana State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 195 lbs. Born 3/26/2001. Hometown: Denham Springs, LA.
2021: 13 HR, .308/.368/.546, 1 SB, 32/22 K/BB in 58 games.
Cade Doughty does not have the loudest tools in the SEC, and certainly does not compare favorably to the other names on this impressive list when it comes to power, speed, or overall athleticism. However, the kid is somewhat reminiscent of another former LSU Tiger, Daniel Cabrera, in that he can just flat out play baseball. I actually like Doughty significantly more than I liked Cabrera, and I (like many others) am enamored enough with his natural feel for the game to rank him high on this list. Doughty was a highly regarded recruit coming out of the Baton Rouge-area high school ranks and I liked him then as well, and all he's done since then is just hit and hit and hit. Doughty is a very professional hitter that makes a ton of contact from the right side, consistently going with the pitch and working an all fields approach. With a bat path that is naturally long through the hitting zone, he has some margin for error on pitches he mistimes. Not just a slappy gap to gap hitter, he has plenty of leverage in his 6'1" frame and taps into above average power both to his pull side and the opposite field. The end product is a very well-rounded bat that has a chance to produce 15-20 home runs annually in the majors while posting relatively high on-base percentages, and I have a feeling he's going to end up closer to his ceiling than his floor. In 2022, he might want to get a bit more selective to try to draw a few more walks, as he tends to make contact early in the count and walked in just 8.5% of his plate appearances last year. He also provides value on defense, with good range and instincts in the infield and an above average arm that would make him a net-positive defender at either second or third base.

8. 2B Robert Moore, Arkansas.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 5'9", 170 lbs. Born 3/31/2002. Hometown: Leawood, KS.
2021: 16 HR, .283/.384/.558, 6 SB, 51/41 K/BB in 61 games.
Every year, guys come around that are just ballers. Last year it was Ryan Bliss, now with the Diamondbacks, and this year Robert Moore seems like the guy. The son of Royals general manager Dayton Moore, Robert is undersized and lacks big tools but can just flat out play baseball with the best of them. He graduated early from Shawnee Mission East High School in the Kansas City suburbs and enrolled at Arkansas when he was just 17, and promptly hit .317/.403/.444 as a freshman despite not being old enough to vote. Moore continued that success with a strong sophomore season at 18-19 years old and then hit .351/.415/.378 as one of the youngest members of the US Collegiate National Team. Standing just 5'9" and with a skinny frame at that, he works counts extremely well and is completely unfazed by elite, older pitching, taking professional at bats consistently day in and day out. The switch hitter is very mechanically sound in his swing from both sides of the plate, creating a ton of whip that gives him more power than you'd expect for his size, especially to the pull side. That power didn't really show up with wood bats for the CNT, where he had just one extra base hit (a double) in eleven games, and given his size it's fair to question how much he'll have in pro ball. It's not quite a Nick Madrigal profile because there is some swing and miss in his game, and he may have to decide going forward what kind of a hitter he wants to be and how much contact he'll trade for power. To me, how much the power will show up with wood bats is probably the most important question. Moore is a sparkplug on defense as well, playing a standout second base for Arkansas and potentially showing the ability to move over to shortstop in pro ball if he can get a little stronger and improve his arm a touch. Either way, he's a plus runner and has the range to play anywhere on the diamond. There are players you don't bet against, and Bob Moore seems like one of them with a Dustin Pedroia ceiling.

9. OF Jud Fabian, Florida.
Bat: R. Throw: L. 6'2", 190 lbs. Born 9/27/2000. Hometown: Ocala, FL.
2021: 20 HR, .249/.364/.560, 6 SB, 79/40 K/BB in 59 games.
We spent a lot of words on Jud Fabian in 2021, and we're going to do it again in 2022. Having graduated a semester early from Trinity Catholic High School in Ocala, Florida in 2018, he enrolled at Florida in time for the 2019 season and had established himself as one of the top prospects in the country (and #3 in the SEC) by the time the 2021 season rolled around. What ensued was an extremely up and down junior year for Fabian, who had four multi-homer games (including one against #2 overall pick Jack Leiter) but at one point also managed to strike out 15 times in 22 hitless plate appearances. The Red Sox still drafted him with the 40th overall pick and offered him a multi-million dollar signing bonus, but it wasn't anywhere close to the $3 million he had asked for (a price some other teams were reportedly willing to meet) and he's returning to school. Last year, Fabian was one of the youngest eligible players from a four year school, still two and a half months shy of his 21st birthday, so he'll be age appropriate for this year's draft and is younger than Hayden Dunhurst. He does a lot of things well and really only has one weakness in his game. The Ocala product has plus raw power and does an excellent job of lifting the ball, with a swing ideal for blasting balls out of the park that has done so consistently against the best arms in the country. As up and down as his season was, he never went more than four games without a home run in the regular season. He also has a very strong eye at the plate, effectively working counts and recognizing spin even against premium velocity and stuff. The problem with his bat, however, is that he simply lacks the barrel accuracy to consistently tap his power and get on base. Fabian's uppercut swing means that even though he rarely chases bad pitches, he often swings through hittable ones and can be prone to long bouts of coming up empty at the plate. In 2022, he'll have to prove he can be more consistent, because another year of ups and downs could knock him out of the top two rounds or so. However, even a small reduction in his strikeout rate where he at least avoids the major slumps that plagued him in 2021 could lock him into the first round. On defense, Fabian provides plenty of value with plus speed and range that will fit very well in center field, taking some pressure off his bat and also helping him out on the bases.

10. LHP Connor Prielipp, Alabama.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'2", 205 lbs. Born 1/10/2001. Hometown: Tomah, WI.
2021: 1-1, 3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 12/1 K/BB in 7 IP.
Connor Prielipp is somewhat of the mystery man in this conference. He began his college career perhaps as well as you could possibly expect, tossing 26 shutout innings with 43 strikeouts, six walks, and just nine hits allowed in five non-conference starts against Northeastern, UNLV, Harvard, Lipscomb, and McNeese State. The first four came in the shortened 2020 season, while the McNeese State start ended up being his only start of the 2021 season as his elbow gave out on him. He came back for two much less effective relief appearances against Auburn and LSU in mid-April and mid-May, respectively (2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K), but went down with Tommy John surgery and will likely miss the 2022 season as well. It's not often that an injured pitcher with just 28 collegiate innings to his name can make a first round push, especially when they were not a highly regarded recruit, but Prielipp really is special. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and has been up to 97, velocity he has maintained throughout his handful of starts. His slider is a plus pitch with late bite, darting under bats at the last second, and his changeup is an above average pitch in its own right. With a simple, easy delivery, the 6'2" lefty commands his pitches well and has all of the traits you look for in a frontline starting pitcher, and if he hadn't gotten hurt he may very well be the number one player on this list. However, the fact that we haven't seen how he handles a larger workload is important, as he'll be asked to throw roughly seven times his career high in innings in a big league rotation, and for that reason you can't project him as a starter with as much certainty as a guy like Peyton Pallette. Prielipp's five starts have also come against weaker competition, with the two worst innings of his career being the only two he threw against SEC teams (albeit while hurt). On talent alone, he might be the best in the conference, so his low ranking on this list is really just a byproduct of the depth of the conference combined with the unfortunate fact that we just won't have seen him pitch in a very long time come draft day.

11. OF Cayden Wallace, Arkansas.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 205 lbs. Born 8/7/2001. Hometown: Greenbrier, AR.
2021: 14 HR, .279/.369/.500, 0 SB, 61/29 K/BB in 60 games.
Cayden Wallace was one of the top recruits to make it to campus following the shutdown, and he immediately made an impact by working his way into the middle of arguably the best lineup in the country as a true freshman. After swatting 14 home runs as a teenager playing an SEC schedule, he continued to produce with wood bats in the Cape Cod League and slashed .290/.352/.468 with two home runs over 18 games. Because he turned 20 over the summer and will be 21 a few weeks after the draft, he'll be eligible this year as a true sophomore. The first thing you notice with Wallace is the power, as he produces big exit velocities and crushes baseballs impressive distances from the right side. Not the biggest guy in the world at six feet tall, he packs in plenty of lean muscle and produces a ton of force. Evaluators saw him as power-over-hit in high school and that was the case during his freshman season, but he handled SEC pitching better than many expected right out of the gate and was unfazed by the premium stuff he saw on the Cape. There is still some swing and miss in his game with a right handed uppercut that can get a bit long at times, but the barrel does get into the hitting zone early and he does a great job of staying through the ball. As his pitch recognition skills sharpen with age, he should become an average hitter in the big leagues with the potential for plus power. The central Arkansas native is a below average runner but certainly not a base clogger, and his cannon right arm gives him a chance to be an average defender in right field. He played infield in high school and could stick at third base with some more seasoning, and he may get the opportunity to prove himself a bit at the position in 2022 after playing mostly right field in 2021. There's a little more projection required with Wallace because he doesn't control the strike zone as well as many of the names above him on this list, but he's also younger than most of them as well. Either way, expect big things from him in 2022.

12. LHP Hunter Barco, Florida.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'4", 220 lbs. Born 12/15/2000. Hometown: Jacksonville, FL.
2021: 10-3, 4.01 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 94/26 K/BB in 83 innings.
Hayden Dunhurst, Landon Sims, Cade Doughty, and Cayden Wallace may have been nationally-known prospects coming out of high school, but Hunter Barco was the most hyped of all of them at Bolles High School in Jacksonville, earning first round grades from some evaluators. His performance at Florida has been more up and down than he may have liked so far, but with a 3.52 ERA and a sharp 120/32 strikeout to walk ratio through 102.1 innings over two seasons, he remains very much a contender for the first round. Barco has a deep arm plunge in his delivery and comes from a low three quarters slot that gives a unique look to hitters, especially from the left side, getting down the mound well with his lower half and showing off his athleticism. His stuff can be inconsistent, with a fastball that can get up to 96-97 at its best but which has also been known to drop into the upper 80's. The slider is his best pitch, a plus, sweepy breaker when it's on that creates a lot of confused swings, while his split changeup gives him another above average pitch. Barco's in-zone command can come and go but he does a very good job of pounding the strike zone even when he isn't feeling as precise with his location, and only once in his twenty career starts has he walked more than three batters in an outing. The 6'4" lefty has projection remaining and is a very good athlete, and he gave a glimpse at his ceiling this summer when he struck out eight of the ten batters he faced for the US Collegiate National Team. On the docket for 2022 will be a bit more consistency, which could help him overtake Connor Prielipp, Landon Sims, and Peyton Pallette as the best arm in the conference.

Honorable Mentions
Given the depth of this conference, I wanted to touch on a couple more names that just missed. Vanderbilt's Spencer Jones was the first name off the list, as he hasn't received much playing time in Nashville but slashed an impressive .309/.409/.457 on the Cape and shows plus raw power from a 6'7" frame. He was one of the more famous players in the 2019 prep class out of high school in the San Diego area but made it to campus after injuries wiped out his senior season, and at the time he drew early round interest as a pitcher with a low 90's fastball and an above average curveball as well. He hasn't pitched at all for Vanderbilt and has only played in 48 games overall in two seasons, so it will be interesting to see how much he can tap that power in games on a consistent basis in 2022 and whether his strong plate discipline can translate to a plus hit tool despite the natural swing and miss you get with arms as long as his. And maybe we'll finally get to see him pitch. Tennessee's Blade Tidwell is another interesting draft-eligible sophomore who will turn 21 in June, coming off a strong true-freshman season in the Volunteer rotation where he had a 3.74 ERA and a 90/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 98.2 innings. The 6'4" righty has a power right arm that can run his fastball up to 97 with ease, sitting in the mid 90's and showing very good feel to spin both a slider and curveball as well. His control is ahead of his command but he pounds the strike zone consistently and rarely hurts himself with walks, giving him a high floor as a back-end starter with a mid-rotation ceiling. Florida's Brandon Sproat might have the strongest arm in the entire conference, but he has a 5.53 ERA and a 26/18 strikeout to walk ratio over just 27.2 innings because he's struggled to throw strikes. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and can touch 99 in relief, while his above average slider provides an out pitch. To this point, he looks like a reliever because of that below average command and the lack of a reliable changeup, but there are no glaring issues in his delivery and more consistent innings in 2022 might help him pull it together enough to earn a shot as a starter. Lastly, LSU's Eric Reyzelman is one of the more interesting transfers out there, having come over from San Francisco. While his numbers against weaker competition weren't that impressive over two years with the Dons (5.72 ERA, 56/36 K/BB in 50.1 IP), he was much stronger on the Cape this summer (2.93 ERA, 38/8 K/BB in 27.2 IP) and he's a breakout candidate for 2022. The 6'2" righty now sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can touch 96-97 in short stints, adding a full arsenal behind it headlined by an above average slider. Reyzelman has a very loose, athletic delivery with some deception and is young for the class, in fact younger than true-sophomore Tidwell despite being a junior.

Monday, July 27, 2020

2020 Draft: Top 12 Undrafted High School Hitters

Just like with the pitchers, more hitting talent is heading to college than ever before. In this case, there are actually a ton of catchers between Georgia Tech's Kevin Parada, UVA's Kyle Teel, Arizona's Daniel Susac, and Georgia's Corey Collins, in addition to Miami's Carlos Perez, who just missed the "others" section. Another running theme here is power, as only two of the twelve names profile for anything less than above average raw power. Parada and LSU's Dylan Crews are the clear headliners here, though lower down on the list, I see Cayden Wallace and AJ Shaver being interesting sleepers to keep an eye on. By conference in the 17 listed, the SEC leads the way with six names including two of the top four, while Arizona was the only school to bring on multiple hitters on the list. Between the hitters and pitchers list, Miami and Arizona are tied with three names apiece, though I'd easily call the Miami crop the best one.

1. C Kevin Parada (my draft rank: 47)
Loyola HS [CA] -> Georgia Tech
Atlanta is a long way from Kevin Parada's home in Los Angeles, but if you're looking for a school with track record behind the plate, Georgia Tech is the way to go. Parada will look to be next in a long line of Yellow Jacket catching talent extending from Jason Varitek and Matt Wieters to, more recently, 2018 Giants second overall pick Joey Bart and 2019 A's fourth round pick Kyle McCann. If anything, Parada brings a big time bat. It's not as flashy as Bart's, but it's certainly more balanced than McCann's. He combines naturally above average raw power with an advanced hit tool that has enabled that power to play up in games and which made him one of the more consistent performers on the prep circuit. This spring, he started off especially hot and might have hit his way into first round consideration, but his commitment to Georgia Tech remained firm and he effectively priced himself out of the draft. Defensively, he's a bit more of a work in progress, as he doesn't show the soft hands and natural agility behind the plate that teams look for, but he should still be good enough to catch at least in school. Very few question his bat, and he should be able to jump into the Yellow Jacket starting lineup as a freshman, whether that's behind the plate or somewhere else like first base or DH. He has a good shot to be one of the ACC's better bats over the next three seasons, so the development of his glove will likely determine whether he cracks the first round. Pre-draft profile here.

2. OF Dylan Crews (my draft rank: 55/unranked)
Lake Mary HS [FL] -> Louisiana State
Technically, I removed Dylan Crews from my draft rankings when he formally removed himself from the draft, but he would have ranked 55th had he not taken his name out. LSU is no stranger to big recruits making it to campus and brought on a big bat in Cade Doughty last year, but Crews could be an even bigger get. Playing out of the same suburban Orlando high school that produced Rockies infielder Brendan Rodgers in 2015, Crews put his name on the map early in his high school career and has long been a staple in first round conversations. However, an up and down summer, in addition to an unremarkable, shortened senior year, pushed him more into the second round range. Crews clearly believes that he possesses a first round bat, and he's off to prove it in Baton Rouge. He naturally produces a ton of raw power from a lightning quick right handed swing, and he has tapped that power against high level pitching for a long time. However, this past summer, he really tried to show it off, and that led to some swing and miss and overall uneven performance. Crews is at his best when he stays within himself and lets his strength and bat speed send the ball deep, and when he does stay within himself, he shows an above average hit tool. He'll look to refine his approach at LSU and get more consistent, and if he produces in the SEC like he's capable of, he could return in 2023 a first round pick. I could easily see Crews as one of the SEC's most productive hitters over the next few seasons. Pre-draft profile here.

3. OF Chase Davis (my draft rank: 65)
Franklin HS [CA] -> Arizona
I think more people expected Nick Yorke to make to campus at Arizona than Chase Davis, but Yorke's surprise first round selection to Boston was enough to pry him away from Tucson and Davis ended up effectively pricing himself out instead. Throw in Daniel Susac, and you have a couple of big Sacramento-area bats coming in to replace the departed catchers Austin Wells (Yankees, first round) and Matthew Dyer (Mets, fourth round). Davis is a power hitter with plenty of lean muscle packed onto his 6'1" frame, deploying his quick hands into explosive bat speed from the left side. Right now, the main flaw in his profile is a significant bat wrap that causes his swing to start with the head of the bat pointed towards the pitcher, making his swing a lot longer than it needs to be. Against high school pitching, his bat speed was more than enough to make up for that, but some of the premium arms on the showcase circuit were able to exploit that and overall he's a fairly streaky hitter. At Arizona, he has both the power and feel for the barrel to develop into one of the better hitters in the Pac 12, but his success might hinge on how well the Arizona coaching staff is able to smooth out that bat wrap. To me, it's reason to envision him showing a future average or even above average hit tool, because if he can succeed with the bat wrap, who knows how well he could hit without it. Eliminating that "who knows" with big production in the Pac 12 could turn him into a first round pick, but further inconsistency could have the opposite effect. Davis also has a plus arm and enough range to be an above average defender in right field, perhaps even a center fielder in college ball depending on who the Wildcats have in the outfield. Pre-draft profile here.

4. OF Enrique Bradfield (my draft rank: 72)
American Heritage HS [FL] -> Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt put together the best outfield recruiting class I've ever seen between Robert Hassell, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Enrique Bradfield, and while Hassell (Padres) and Crow-Armstrong (Mets) both went in the top 19 picks, Bradfield made it through and will end up in Nashville. One of the fastest players in the 2020 draft class, he has a chance to be a true leadoff bat that sets the tone for the next few Vanderbilt lineups. A very skinny kid at a listed 6' and 155 pounds, Bradfield is an old school type with very little power to speak of. Instead, he likes to slap the ball around the field and use his plus-plus wheels to do the rest, though he's not a pure slap hitter in that he has shown the ability to drive the ball if he wants to. I don't see him ever getting close to average power, but with a loose left handed swing and natural feel for the barrel, I could definitely see Bradfield knocking plenty of doubles and triples at Vanderbilt while running into a couple of home runs here and there. He'll also wreak havoc on the basepaths and be a handful for SEC catchers, aided by the likely high on-base percentages he'll put up. It's hard to see him projecting as a true first round pick just due to the lack of power, but three years of production in the SEC to prove his hit tool is for real could get him close. Defensively, I probably don't have to tell you that he's a true center fielder. It's always hard to break through and find playing time at Vanderbilt, but I don't expect him to take too long to be at least ready for full time duties in the SEC. Pre-draft profile here.

5. SS/3B Drew Bowser (my draft rank: 79)
Harvard-Westlake HS [CA] -> Stanford
Bowser was actually only the second best prospect on his Los Angeles high school team behind Mets first rounder Pete Crow-Armstrong, but he has a shot to be one of the better hitters Stanford has brought on in recent years. Bowser is a power hitter that generates a lot of torque from a sturdy 6'3" frame and a powerful right handed swing, regularly putting on a show in batting practice. While his power hasn't played up as consistently in games, it's definitely trending in the right direction as he has tightened up that right handed swing and let his power come naturally rather than selling out. A shortstop in high school, he's probably a third baseman in pro ball due to his fringy range, but he may be able to stick at the position in college depending on what the lineup looks like around him. If a better defender does push him to third base, he'll be above average there and an asset for the Cardinal. Bowser was trending up as a hitter before the season shut down, so it will be interesting to see how ready his bat is for the Pac 12 when his freshman season begins. Either way, by the time he's a sophomore, I'd expect him to be putting up big numbers. Pre-draft profile here.

6. SS/3B Yohandy Morales (my draft rank: 91)
Braddock HS [FL] -> Miami
Miami brought on two of the top four incoming high school pitching prospects on my previous list, and now they're on the board with the sixth best incoming hitting prospect as well. To make things even more fun for Hurricanes fans, all three of Victor Mederos, Alejandro Rosario, and Yohandy Morales, plus another top recruit in catcher Carlos Perez, attended high school in Miami-Dade County. Morales is a big power hitter who was trending up in the spring, more efficiently channeling his natural strength and leverage into game power. He's a big guy at 6'4" that can really put a charge into a baseball, though up until recently, he had a lot going on in his setup/swing that often led to some swing and miss. If he can maintain the adjustments he made in the shortened 2020 season that saw him calm down that setup, he could be the anchor of Miami lineups for the next couple of years. Morales, like Bowser, played shortstop in high school, but he's probably more likely to end up at third base even in Coral Gables. The loss of shortstop Freddy Zamora (Brewers, second round) and infield recruit Sammy Infante (Nationals, comp round) helps Morales' chances, though Miami is such a hotbed for talent that someone will inevitably rise up and push Morales to third base. Still, he has a chance to be solid average there and given how much he could hit, it won't really matter where he ends up defensively. Evaluators will be watching closely to see if he can bring that quieter approach to college ball, and if he demolishes ACC pitching like he is capable of, we could be looking at a high pick in the 2023 draft. Pre-draft profile here.

7. C Kyle Teel (my draft rank: 98/unranked)
Mahwah HS [NJ] -> Virginia
Like Dylan Crews, Kyle Teel formally removed his name from the draft during the spring, so he didn't end up on my rankings when he could have cracked the top 100. Nobody recruits out of the Pennsylvania/New Jersey area better than UVA, and Teel will hope to follow 2016 first rounder Matt Thaiss on the New Jersey to UVA catcher to major leagues pipeline. He will fit right into the Cavaliers' lineup as a well-rounded, disciplined player with the ability to play from day one. Teel doesn't have huge physical tools, but he's an agile defender behind the plate with soft hands who is actually athletic enough to play the infield if needed. With further refinement in college, he could make himself into a well above average defensive catcher. With the bat, it's a balanced profile with a loose left handed swing, some sneaky power, and a consistent hit tool that will enable him to handle ACC pitching. He probably won't post eye popping offensive numbers like Thaiss, but he'll be a better defender and he'll likely be very consistent. Continuing to bulk up and add impact to his overall game could put him in a really nice spot for the 2023 draft – while NC State's Patrick Bailey has more power than Teel will likely end up with, the fact that he went 13th overall without eye popping numbers shows the value of good defensive catchers who can hit.

8. OF Jace Bohrofen (my draft rank: 102)
Westmoore HS [OK] -> Oklahoma
Though Oklahoma lost shortstop recruits Bobby Witt Jr. to the Royals and Ed Howard to the Cubs in back to back first rounds, they landed a very solid outfield bat in Jace Bohrofen. While he doesn't have one standout tool like many of the other names on this list, Bohrofen brings a broad baseline that, at the very least, will make him a very productive player at the college level. I love the looseness and natural whip in his left handed swing, and his above average feel for the barrel enables him to make very consistent hard contact. For now, the power is pretty ordinary, but as he bulks up, he has the swing type and natural projection in his 6'2" frame to profile for average or even slightly above average power in pro ball. Back at the college level, I see him pretty easily playing up to at least above average power with metal bats and against Big 12 pitching. His feel for the game should enable him to slot right into the Oklahoma lineup from day one, and while he's more of a corner outfield profile for pro ball, he could stick in center field for the Sooners. Scouts were moderately underwhelmed by the tools he shows at this point, so three years of production in the Big 12 in addition to the chance to grow into some real power could change that in a big way come 2023.

9. 3B Cayden Wallace (my draft rank: 104)
Greenbrier HS [AR] -> Arkansas
Arkansas lost two superstar hitters to the 2020 draft in outfielder Heston Kjerstad (Orioles, second overall) and Casey Martin (Phillies, third round), but the returns of catcher Casey Opitz and infielder Robert Moore, plus a huge incoming freshman bat in Cayden Wallace, should keep the Razorbacks' lineup humming at a high level. Wallace is yet another power hitter who can really, really smoke the baseball, posting exit velocities up there with the best in the class. His swing could use a little bit of mechanical refinement to help him get more loft and extension, which could help him tap even bigger power. The hit tool will take a little more projection, as he has shown plenty of feel for the barrel in his high school career but since the barrel isn't in the zone for long, he can swing through hittable pitches at times. He'll be an interesting project for the Arkansas coaching staff that has had plenty of success with these types of hitters in the past, with a ton of upside to be unlocked. Given how deep the Arkansas lineup is, I'm not sure if he'll be able to crack the lineup from day one, but I expect him to work his way in rather quickly and he could be a legitimate impact hitter sooner rather than later for the Razorbacks. A shortstop in high school, he'll likely end up at third base in college, where his strong arm and quick instincts should make him solid average there.

10. C Daniel Susac (my draft rank: 110)
Jesuit HS [CA] -> Arizona
Joining Chase Davis on his way from Sacramento to Tucson will be Daniel Susac, the younger brother of MLB catcher Andrew Susac. Daniel will be a huge get for a Wildcats team that just lost both of its star catchers in Austin Wells (Yankees, first round) and Matthew Dyer (Mets, fourth round), giving him the chance to start full time immediately. Overall, Susac is a very solid all-around player with solid tools all-around but nothing that stands out at present. He generates above average raw power from a big, 6'3" frame that he has shown the ability to tap in games. A switch hitter, his long arms and legs can put some length into his swings at times, though he has shown the ability to make adjustments. His strength is apparent behind the plate with a strong arm, though he's not the most athletic back there and is still smoothing out his overall defensive game. Together it should profile well in college, where he could hit in the middle of the Wildcats lineup, and refining everything down into a more consistent product could really help his draft stock. He'll want to work quickly, because his May birthday makes him a year older than his peers in his class, and he'll be both age-appropriate and eligible for the 2022 draft as a sophomore.

11. C Corey Collins (my draft rank: 122)
North Gwinnett HS [GA] -> Georgia
Corey Collins was trending up when the shutdown happened, and some scouts believed he had a chance to hit his way into day one consideration with a full season. What was pro ball's loss could ultimately become Georgia's gain, as they're bringing on the top incoming catcher in the SEC. Collins, like many of the names before him on this list, is a power hitter with a big, strong 6'3" frame that produces a lot of leverage from the left side. However, he wasn't really seen much on the showcase circuit and therefore scouts didn't really know what to make of his hit tool, so that makes him a great candidate to go prove it in college. Some scouts who have seen more of Collins think his hit tool could be at least average, which would make him a really valuable player not only for the Bulldogs but in pro ball, but again, he's gotta prove it. Behind the plate, his defense is typical of high school catchers, with a strong arm and decent blocking/receiving skills in need of refinement. Collins has a chance to shoot up boards Patrick Bailey style with a strong career in Athens, and either way he's a huge get for that Georgia program.

12. OF AJ Shaver (my draft rank: 130)
South Lake HS [FL] -> Florida State
AJ Shaver was one of the last late risers up the board in this weird draft cycle, but his rise came too little too late to divert him away from heading to Florida State. He has a very quick right handed swing that produces some nice, natural raw power that he can tap naturally without selling out, though his aggressive approach has limited him at times against higher level pitching. Not just a power hitter, Shaver is also a plus runner that deploys his speed well on both sides of the ball, giving him another dimension with which to impact the game. While his hit tool is a bit uneven, that's more due to his approach than due to a lack of ability to find the barrel, and calming down his approach a bit at Florida State could help him improve his stock in a big way. Shaver was beginning to make those adjustments this spring and some regional evaluators are buying into the improvement, which is why his stock was rising. If he continues trending in this direction at FSU, Seminoles fans might have found themselves their next big offensive prospect.

Honorable Mentions: SS Cade Horton/3B Tanner Witt
Horton: Norman HS [OK] -> Oklahoma.  Witt: Episcopal HS [TX] -> Texas.
These guys were more prominently featured as numbers five and seven on my pitchers list, but they're going to hit at school as well so the Big 12 has a couple of big time two-way prospects coming to town. Horton, who is also a quarterback, generates some nice raw power from the extension he gets on a fairly explosive right handed swing, though his hit tool needs some work. His football athleticism plays well on the diamond, and he should stick at shortstop at least through his college career. With fellow Oklahoma commit Ed Howard signing with the Cubs in the first round, the spot is there for him to claim on days where he's not pitching. As for Tanner Witt, he's not quite the hitting prospect that Horton is, but he still shows big raw power from a 6'6" frame. Those long arms help him really put a charge into the ball when he gets extended, but the bat isn't quite as explosive as other power hitters in the class and he might struggle a bit with Big 12 pitching. While I would pick Horton to strike out Witt and Witt to strike out Horton in any future Big 12 match ups, I think Horton would be just a little more likely to pick up a hit off Witt than the other way around. Witt also doesn't bring the same defensive value as Horton, looking like he'll be limited to first base.

Others (by pre-draft rank):
132. SS Cole Foster, Plano Senior HS [TX] -> Auburn
140. OF Slade Wilks, Columbia Academy [MS] -> Southern Mississippi
145. 3B/RHP/QB Nolan McLean, Garner Magnet HS [NC] -> Oklahoma State
152. SS Colby Halter, Bishop Kenny HS [FL] -> Florida
158. OF Mario Zabala, International Baseball Academy [PR] -> Florida International