As a Nationals fan, I went a little deeper with this one, though the Nationals' system is lacking in terms of impact talent. Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia are just about the only two impact prospects on the offensive side, while Jackson Rutledge and Tim Cate are the only blue chippers on the pitching side. When it comes to hitting, the Nationals are extremely shallow behind Kieboom and Garcia, as they've got virtually nothing in the outfield and Drew Mendoza still has a lot to prove. They're a little deeper on the mound, as Wil Crowe, Seth Romero, Mason Denaburg, Matt Cronin, and Andry Lara all offer something in their own right, but Crowe lacks much of a ceiling and the other four have a lot to prove. However, if Kieboom pans out like he should, I think Nationals fans will be happy.
Affiliates: AAA Fresno Grizzlies, AA Harrisburg Senators, High A Potomac Nationals*, Class A Hagerstown Suns, short season Auburn Doubledays, complex level GCL and DSL Nationals
*High A affiliate will move from Woodbridge, VA to Fredericksburg, VA in 2020
Catcher
- Raudy Read (2020 Age: 26): With the Nationals going with a Kurt Suzuki/Yan Gomes combination behind the plate for a second straight season, Read's best path to playing time will be if someone gets hurt. That said, he had a nice season in the minors this year, slashing .275/.317/.546 with 20 home runs and a 58/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 games at AAA Fresno, and he's also slashed .182/.182/.182 in 14 major league games. Read has some power and has shown some moderate ability to get to it, though he doesn't draw many walks and figures to be a low on-base percentage guy at the major league level. Though he's a good defender behind the plate, I doubt he ever takes over as a starter, but he should fit in nicely as a back-up at some point, either in DC or elsewhere.
- Tres Barrera (2020 Age: 25): A sixth round pick out of Texas in 2016, Barrera has moved slowly through the minors and in 2019, he slashed .249/.323/.381 with eight home runs and a 69/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games at AA Harrisburg, also picking up two hitless major league at bats. He's a great defender who earned his way up to the majors with his glove, though his bat is a bit light to ever start at the major league level. Barrera and Read will probably compete for the third string role as long as Suzuki and Gomes are around, with Read showing a slightly better bat and Barrera showing a slightly better glove. I'd probably rather use Barrera due to the better glove.
- Israel Pineda (2020 Age: 20): Pineda hasn't quite gotten it going with the bat yet, but he's easily the best young catcher in the system. In 2019, he slashed .217/.278/.305 with seven home runs and a 102/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games at Class A Hagerstown, though he only turned 19 at the start of the season. He'll probably end up as more of a back-up catcher, but he's a very competent player at a young age and that's what you like to see in a catcher. Hopefully it clicks for him in High A in 2020 and he moves towards his ceiling of a 10-15 homer, medium on-base catcher.
- Keep an eye on: Taylor Gushue, Jakson Reetz
Corner Infield
- Jake Noll (2020 Age: 26): Nationals fans may remember Noll as the relatively unknown prospect who looks like Ryan Zimmerman and cracked the Opening Day roster before going back down to the minors and not being heard from again aside from a brief call-up in May. Noll slashed .167/.231/.250 over those eight major league games, but spent the majority of 2019 at AAA Fresno, where he slashed .285/.327/.410 with eleven home runs and an 89/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games in a hitter-friendly environment. He's played all over the diamond in his pro career with significant time at first, second, and third base, and he'll compete with Wilmer Difo for a utility infielder role in 2020. A seventh round pick out of Florida Gulf Coast in 2016, Noll is a very competent hitter who has shown moderate power while being a very tough out at the plate, and he should be very useful on both sides of the ball at the major league level, though I doubt he ever starts full time.
- Drew Mendoza (2020 Age: 22): Mendoza was borderline first rounder as a high schooler in the Orlando area, but he elected to attend Florida State instead and emerged as a third round pick in 2019. In his pro debut, he slashed .264/.377/.383 with four home runs and a 57/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games in an aggressive assignment at Class A Hagerstown, and he remains just a bit enigmatic as a prospect. A big guy at 6'5" and 230 pounds, he can really drive the ball with authority, though that power comes more from sheer strength than from bat speed or a particularly explosive swing, so it's not completely known how his power will translate over with wood bats. He only hit four home runs in 55 games in his pro debut, but most collegiate picks don't go straight to Class A in their draft year, so 2020 will be more illuminating. There is swing and miss in his game, which he pairs with a patient approach that helps him draw plenty of walks, and that may also impact his power production if he doesn't make enough contact. He'll have to hit as a first baseman, though the upside here is pretty good as a guy who can crack 25-30 home runs a year with walk-driven on-base percentages in the .350 range.
- Gilbert Lara (2020 Age: 22): Lara was an extremely highly regarded amateur out of the Dominican Republic, and he signed for $3.1 million back in 2014. Traded to the Natioanls with KJ Harrison for Gio Gonzalez in 2018, he started to pick it up with the bat just a little in 2019. This year, he slashed .242/.280/.375 with 13 home runs and a 123/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 games at Class A Hagerstown and High A Potomac, though the strike zone got away from him a bit at the higher level. He's got some power in his 6'4" frame and can get to it with an explosive swing, but the swing can get long and he hasn't shown the ability to tap into it consistently at any point. Defensively, he's strong at third base, which buys his bat time to develop, and he projects as somewhat of a utility infielder/back-up third baseman with some pop down the line. Hopefully he can shorten his swing a bit and be more than that though.
- Keep an eye on: KJ Harrison, Aldrem Corredor, Leandro Emiliani
Middle Infield
- Carter Kieboom (2020 Age: 22): This is the name Nationals fans keep hearing. While he's not the same caliber of a prospect that Juan Soto and Victor Robles were, the hope here is that Kieboom can give the Nationals a third NL ROY-caliber position player in as many years. A first round pick out of high school in the Atlanta area in 2016, Kieboom slashed .303/.409/.493 with 16 home runs and a 100/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at hitter-friendly AAA Fresno in 2019, also slashing .128/.209/.282 with a pair of home runs in an eleven game cup of coffee at the major league level. He's a very talented hitter with great feel for the barrel that enables his slightly above average raw power to play up in games, somewhat like Anthony Rendon in that regard. He's also patient and draws his share of walks, and it's easy to envision him hitting 20 home runs per season with high on-base percentages. He's also a decent defender at shortstop who should be above average at second or third base, adding to his value, though he's expected to play more second base early on with Trea Turner holding down shortstop and one of Rendon or Josh Donaldson likely to man third base in 2020. The biggest blemish on Kieboom's strong profile was his brief MLB debut, where he clearly did not look ready (can you blame him, he was 21) and the game just seemed to speed up on him. A little more seasoning should help, and I expect him to be a real contributor in 2020, with his ultimate projection being something similar to early-career Rendon.
- Luis Garcia (2020 Age: 19-20): This is an interesting prospect. Garcia was signed for $1.3 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2016, hit well in an aggressive assignment to the complex-level Gulf Coast League in 2017, reached High A shortly after his 18th birthday in 2018 as the youngest player in the league, then reached AA before he even turned 19 in 2019. That was his first real speed bump, as he slashed just .257/.280/.337 with four home runs, eleven stolen bases, and an 86/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games, but he did play well in the Eastern League playoffs with six hits in fifteen at bats (.400 AVG) and five walks to just one strikeout. He's an extremely advanced hitter for his age, as he makes very consistent contact and isn't fooled by advanced pitching. He was just a bit overmatched at Harrisburg this year, and he lacked much impact at the plate, so he won't be major league ready at the outset of 2020, but he has the chance to post good on-base percentages and hit ten or so home runs per season at the major league level. Defensively, he's strong at shortstop but might fit better at second base in the long run.
- Cole Freeman (2020 Age: 25): A fourth round pick as a senior out of LSU in 2017, Freeman slashed an unremarkable .266/.354/.371 line in Class A in 2018 but broke out in 2019, slashing .311/.394/.404 with three home runs, 31 stolen bases, and a 60/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at High A Potomac. He has some of the best plate discipline in the system, rarely swinging and missing and also drawing a healthy amount of walks. While he's nowhere near a power hitter, he doesn't completely lack impact at the plate and can drive the ball to the gaps and use his speed to pick up doubles and triples. He's a bit of an older prospect due to being drafted as a college senior, as he turned 25 in September and has yet to reach AA, but he has a ceiling as an effective super-utility type who can play second base, center field, and left field with his speed but mediocre arm.
- Yasel Antuna (2020 Age: 20): The Nationals had three big middle infield signings in the 2016-2017 international signing period, and while Luis Garcia has blossomed into one of the best prospects in the system, Jose Sanchez and Yasel Antuna have yet to get things going. Antuna, who signed for the largest bonus of the group at $3.9 million, slashed just .220/.293/.331 as an 18 year old at Class A in 2018 but missed all but three games in 2019 with Tommy John surgery. He's extremely talented, showing some power from both sides of the plate with an explosive bat, and he controls the zone well for someone his age. Defensively, he's a shortstop for now and has the tools to stick there, but it he's still a work in progress there and the Tommy John surgery doesn't help. Because he'll spend the entire 2020 season at 20 years old, he's young enough to absorb this lost season and stay on schedule with his development, but for now he's all projection and no track record.
- Viandel Pena (2020 Age: 19): There's not much publicly available information on Pena, but he's certainly interesting. Listed at just 5'8" and 148 pounds, he might be the smallest guy in the system, but that didn't stop him from slashing .359/.455/.481 with six stolen bases and a 31/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League as an 18 year old. Pena is a patient hitter with great knowledge of the strike zone for his age, and while he swings and misses just a bit more than you'd hope for a slap hitter, he has the ceiling of a leadoff-type second baseman if he fills out and develops some impact at the plate. Of course, he'll likely never hit for much power at all, so he's more likely to end up a utility infielder.
- Keep an eye on: Jackson Cluff, J.T. Arruda, Jose Sanchez, Viandel Pena
Outfield
- Nick Banks (2020 Age: 25): Banks was considered a potential first round pick at Texas A&M, but a nagging back injury hurt his numbers as a junior and he fell to the fourth round in 2016. He's come along slowly for a college player but his numbers have steadily improved, and in 2019 he slashed .278/.338/.431 with ten home runs and a 95/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at High A Potomac and AA Harrisburg. Banks is a relatively average player all around, but he's gotten better with every promotion and he uses a short, simple swing to drive the ball with authority regularly. In most systems he'd probably fade into the crowd, but the Nationals are so shallow in minor league outfielders that he has a shot to be a useful fourth outfielder in the near future.
- Gage Canning (2020 Age: 23): Canning was a fifth round pick out of Arizona State in 2018, and he finished his first full season with a .239/.308/.341 slash line, four home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 127/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 111 games. Aside from his speed, he doesn't really stand out for anything on the field, but he plays hard and he gets the most of what he has. He has good feel for the barrel and likes to drive doubles and triples into the gap, and though he's only listed at 5'10" and 175 pounds, he might be able to develop some moderate over the fence power. He's an aggressive hitter who doesn't draw a lot of walks, so his ultimate projection is that as a speedy fourth outfielder.
- Jeremy De La Rosa (2020 Age: 18): The Nationals signed De La Rosa for $300,000 in 2018 and skipped him straight to the complex level Gulf Coast League to begin his pro career in 2019, where he slashed .232/.343/.366 with two home runs and a 29/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 games. For now, he mostly stands out for his feel for the game at such a young age, and he'll spend all of 2020 at just 18 years old with the chance to hit his way up to full season ball. He might not have the high, high ceiling of some of his fellow international signees, but he sticks out in a system very short in outfield depth. It's hard to project these kids at 17 and 18 years old, but he figures to post high on-base percentages with 15 or so home runs per season at the major league level, at least for now.
- Keep an eye on: Yadiel Hernandez, Telmito Augustin, Rhett Wiseman, Jacob Rhinesmith, Justin Connell, Jeremy Ydens
Starting Pitching
- Wil Crowe (2020 Age: 25): Recent top Nationals pitching prospects to reach the majors like Joe Ross, Erick Fedde, and Austin Voth have had varying levels of success, though none have really caught on in a significant way. Wil Crowe hopes to be the next in line to try to stick in the rotation, on the heels of a 4.70 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 130/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 149.1 innings at AA Harrisburg and AAA Fresno. His numbers were much better at the lower level (3.87 ERA, 89/22 K/BB) than with the juiced balls at the higher level (6.17 ERA, 41/26 K/BB), hinting that he may not be 100% ready, but he's risen rapidly through the minors since being drafted in the second round out of South Carolina in 2017. At a listed 6'2" and 240 pounds, he's a big, durable pitcher armed with a low 90's fastball, a slider, a curve, and a changeup, none of which are true out pitches, but they're all effective and he commands and mixes them fairly well. He definitely passes the eye test of a #4 or so big league starter, one who can eat inning and give consistent, quality starts.
- Tim Cate (2020 Age: 22): Crowe may have to establish himself quickly, because a year after taking Crowe out of South Carolina in the second round, the Nationals spent their second round pick on Tim Cate from Connecticut. Cate had a big first full season in 2019, posting a 3.07 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 139/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 143.2 innings at Class A Hagerstown and High A Potomac. The biggest thing for Cate in 2019 was going to be proving he was healthy after missing time during his junior season with forearm problems, and not only did he do that, he took it a step forward and proved he can start in pro ball. He's a 6' lefty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but he adds a plus-plus, swing and miss power curveball that can help him rack up the strikeouts all on its own. His command also took a step forward, and the hope is that he can continue on his current development path and become a #3 starter for the Nationals. In my opinion, he's the second best pitching prospect in the system after Jackson Rutledge.
- Sterling Sharp (2020 Age: 24-25): A 22nd round pick out of Drury University in 2016, Sharp has slowly pitched his way into the Nationals' rotation of the future. In 2019, he posted a 3.53 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 52/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.2 innings between AA Harrisburg and some lower level rehab work, though he missed a chunk of the season with oblique issues. Sharp might have the heaviest fastball in the Nationals' system, sitting in the low 90's and keeping the ball on the ground as consistently as anyone in minor league baseball. His best secondary pitch is his changeup, which dives away from left handed hitters, though his slider lacks sharpness and is probably the last hurdle he needs to clear to become a major league starter. His command is above average and his great athleticism on the mound helps him in a variety of ways, and if he can stay healthy and sharpen that slider, he could be a #3 or #4 starter. If not, he could still end up a #5, or be a long reliever.
- Jackson Rutledge (2020 Age: 21): Rutledge was considered a good draft prospect out of high school in St. Louis in 2017, but he instead attended Arkansas, got hurt, and transferred to San Jacinto Community College in Houston, where he jumped from a could-be to a legit star. After the Nationals took him in the first round in 2019, he posted a 3.13 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 39/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 37.1 innings across three levels in his debut, reaching Class A Hagerstown at the end. Rutledge is a huge guy who stands 6'8" and sits consistently in the mid 90's with his fastball, adding a pair of distinct, swing and miss breaking balls in a curveball and a slider. That all alone gives him true ace potential, though he does have a couple of drawbacks. His control is solid but probably plays a tick below average for now, and his changeup is mediocre. Rutledge clearly has the stuff to start, and on top of the command and changeup, he'll have to a) prove he can stay healthy after missing much of 2018, and b) get just a bit more consistent with his whole game. There is work to do on Rutledge but he is already well on his way towards being an impact starting pitcher, and that's why the Nationals spent $3.45 million on him at 17th overall.
- Steven Fuentes (2020 Age: 22-23): Moved to the rotation in 2019, Fuentes took a huge step forward, posting a 2.23 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 89/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 80.2 innings at High A Potomac and AA Harrisburg. However, he got suspended in July for using PED's, and we haven't sen him pitch since. He only sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider, but he gets outs with his changeup and good command that helped him maneuver advanced lineups. We obviously have to see how he returns from the suspension, but he has the chance to be a back-end starter or a good reliever.
- Seth Romero (2020 Age: 24): Pitch for pitch, Seth Romero has probably had as much media coverage as anybody from his draft class. A standout at Houston, he put himself in position to go in the top ten picks but turned out to be, for lack of a better word, a total jackass, and multiple off-field incidents got him suspended then kicked off of the school's baseball team. The Nationals took the risk anyways in the back of the first round, but he got sent home in 2018 for continuing to be a jackass and only made seven starts at Class A Hagerstown (3.91 ERA, 34/8 K/BB). Apparently he began to turn the corner maturity-wise, but he went down with Tommy John surgery and missed the 2019 season. So here we are in the 2019-2020 offseason, a few months shy of his 24th birthday, and he's thrown 47.1 professional innings. When he's on the mound, there is zero question about his talent – he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, adds a swing and miss slider and a solid changeup, and commands everything well. That all points to a future as a potential #2 or #3 starter if he can stay on the mound, but we'll have to see if he's decided he actually wants to be a professional pitcher.
- Joan Adon (2020 Age: 21-22): Adon was a reliever up until 2019, when the Nationals transitioned him to the rotation and the results were very good; he had a 3.86 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 90/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 innings at Class A Hagerstown. He can sit in the mid 90's with his power fastball, even out of the rotation, and he adds a good slider and a developing changeup with decent command. That's a great relief profile, but the Nationals like his upside in the rotation and he's athletic enough that if they can get his command to take a step forward, he could be an impact starting pitcher. He's very unproven as he hasn't thrown a pitch above Class A and turned 21 at the end of the 2019 season, but he's definitely one to watch in 2020.
- Tyler Dyson (2020 Age: 22): Dyson had the opportunity to go in the first round in 2019 with a good spring at Florida, but instead he struggled and ended up going to the Nationals in the fifth round. He seemed to turn things around a bit in his brief pro debut, where he posted a 1.07 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 17/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.2 innings, mostly at short season Auburn. When he's going right, he can sit in the mid 90's with his fastball and add a very good slider, though his slider softened up in 2019 and that helped hitters sit on and hit his straight fastball, of which his command is so-so. I'm not entirely sure what the difference was for him in pro ball, but he did succeed against wood bats in the Cape Cod League in the summer of 2018 and his command appeared to be sharper. There's still a lot of potential variance in Dyson's outlook, and the low strikeout totals even in pro ball were a small red flag for me, but Dyson could be anything from a #3 starter to a middle reliever.
- Mason Denaburg (2020 Age: 20-21): The Nationals' first round pick in 2018, Denaburg has struggled to stay healthy so far in his pro career after missing time with biceps problems during his senior year at Merritt Island High School in Florida. Limited to seven appearances in 2019, he had a 7.52 ERA, a 1.82 WHIP, and a 19/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.1 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League, with both his stuff and command taking a step back. The Nationals are hoping that a clean bill of health in 2020 will get him back to being the pitcher they drafted, when he sat in the mid 90's with his fastball and added a great curveball and solid command. That's a #3 starter profile, though obviously he has a long, long way to go.
- Andry Lara (2020 Age: 17): There's not a ton of information out there about Lara, and part of that might be because he was born in 2003 (feel old?) and hasn't pitched professionally yet. Signed for $1.25 million out of Venezuela, Lara sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball already and adds an advanced curveball and changeup for a kid who is still only 16. At 6'4", he has room to fill out and has advanced feel for pitching, though we won't know much about his overall projection for a little while. He's one to just sit back and watch for now.
- Keep an eye on: Jackson Tetreault, Mario Sanchez, Malvin Pena, Jake Irvin, Niomar Gomez
Relief Pitching
- Kyle Finnegan (2020 Age: 28): At 28 years old, Finnegan certainly isn't a young prospect, but he has yet to pitch in the majors and had a strong year in the A's system in 2019 before signing with the Nationals this offseason. Finnegan, a sixth round pick out of Texas State way back in 2013, had a breakout year in the upper minors in 2019, posting a 2.31 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 72/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 50.2 innings at AA and AAA, continuing to pitch well even at one of the most hitter-friendly parks in professional baseball. He has a power fastball that sits in the mid to upper 90's and he adds a decent slider, though his command comes and goes and he's really a wild card. Given how poorly the Nationals' bullpen has performed, he has a real shot to be a difference maker in 2019.
- Ben Braymer (2020 Age: 26): After a mediocre run through Class A Hagerstown in 2017 (5.26 ERA), when he was already 23, Braymer has gotten it figured out and more, posting a 2.28 ERA and a 118/34 strikeout to walk ratio in A ball in 2018 and then dominating at AA Harrisburg in 2019. This year, he had a 2.51 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 69/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 innings for the Senators, but he struggled mightily with a promotion to hitter-friendly AAA Fresno, where he had a 7.20 ERA, a 1.93 WHIP, and a 47/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 innings. The former 18th round senior sign out of Auburn sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a good curveball, though he's a starter for now, he probably fits best as a left handed reliever due to the lack of a good changeup and the depth of the Nationals' major league rotation. He's been effective against both lefties and righties, but with the way he was hit up at AAA, he'll probably need that extra bullpen velocity bump to handle major league hitters. For now though, he's a starter, and he could compete with Wil Crowe, Joe Ross, and others for that fifth starter spot in 2020.
- Nick Raquet (2020 Age: 24): A third round pick out of William & Mary in 2017, Raquet looked more like a reliever out of college but he's managed to stick in the rotation so far. In 2019, he posted a 4.07 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 122/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.1 innings at High A Potomac, keeping his starting hopes alive for now. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, though the rest of his arsenal is fairly unremarkable. His command has been better than expected in the minors and that has been the difference in his success, and he may be able to cut it as a #4 or #5 starter if he can get more consistent stuff-wise. To me, it seems like he could take a big step forward if moved to the bullpen, where his fastball could add a tick of velocity and he could focus on one breaking ball, and he could shoot through the minors and become a useful set-up man or middle reliever.
- Reid Schaller (2020 Age: 23): Schaller was a third round pick out of Vanderbilt in 2018, though he's struggled to stay healthy and stay consistent with his stuff. In 2019, he had a 3.29 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 47/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings at Class A Hagerstown, missing time with injury and looking inconsistent when on the mound. He has a low to mid 90's fastball that is his best attribute, but his command isn't great and he lacks consistent secondary stuff. I think they should just stick him in the bullpen, let his fastball hit 100, and see how his slider sharpens up and if he can get himself up to the majors in that role.
- Matt Cronin (2020 Age: 22): Cronin was the Nationals' fourth round pick in 2019 out of Arkansas, and his profile is extremely straightforward. His excellent run through an aggressive initial assignment to Class A Hagerstown, in which he posted a 0.82 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 41/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 innings, shows the lethality of his low to mid 90's fastball as well as his hammer curveball, though it also highlights some inconsistent command. Cronin should be able to move very quickly through the minors and be in the majors by 2021, though improving his command will be the difference in just how quickly he moves.
- Keep an eye on: James Bourque, Jhonatan German, Karlo Seijas
Showing posts with label Carter Kieboom. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Carter Kieboom. Show all posts
Sunday, December 8, 2019
Thursday, November 22, 2018
Reviewing the Washington Nationals Farm System
Coming into the season, the Nationals' farm system was very top heavy, and with Juan Soto no longer a prospect and not much up to take his place, the system is pretty shallow behind top prospects Victor Robles and Carter Kieboom. Even with a heavy emphasis on drafting pitching in recent years, the system remains hitter-heavy as many of those pitchers have failed to materialize into legitimate prospects. Fortunately, the Nationals are fairly deep at two of the toughest positions to find: catcher and shortstop.
Affiliates: AAA Syracuse Chiefs*, AA Harrisburg Senators, High A Potomac Nationals, Class A Hagerstown Suns, Short Season Auburn Doubledays, complex level GCL and DSL Nationals
*AAA affiliate will move from Syracuse, NY to Fresno, CA in 2019
The Headliner: OF Victor Robles
21 year old Victor Robles was supposed to do what Juan Soto did in 2018, but an arm injury wiped out most of his season and he finished slashing .276/.371/.370 with a pair of home runs and 19 stolen bases over 52 games, showing a nice 32/26 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA Syracuse. He's an extremely advanced player for his age, showing power, on-base ability, speed, and great defense at a young age, and at this point all he needs is an extended shot. I don't think he's the future superstar that a lot of analysts have pegged him as, but I see him producing like an Adam Eaton-type player for a long time, making a few All Star teams and hitting at the top of the lineup as long as manager Dave Martinez realizes that hitting for power doesn't make you a bad leadoff man. In 21 major league games this year, he slashed .288/.348/.525 with three home runs and three stolen bases, showing that he's ready and that the Nationals should be prepared to make him their starting center fielder in 2019 and beyond.
Infield Prospects: SS Carter Kieboom, SS Luis Garcia, SS Yasel Antuna, SS Jose Sanchez, 3B Drew Ward, and 1B KJ Harrison
The Nationals system is fortunate to have plenty of shortstops in the minors, and while most of these guys will either have to move off the position or won't have the bat to hit in the majors, it's nice knowing at least one will probably work out as a starting shortstop. The most likely major leaguer is 21 year old Carter Kieboom, a shortstop right now who may be able to cut it at that position in the majors but whose more likely destination is second or third base, depending on Anthony Rendon. Kieboom missed time to injuries in 2017 but had a big 2018 by slashing .280/.357/.444 with 16 home runs and a 109/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at High A Potomac and AA Harrisburg, showing power, plate discipline, and good defense. His game is actually fairly similar to Rendon's, and while Rendon represents more of a ceiling than a most likely outcome for Kieboom, he could be a 20 homer bat with strong on-base percentages in the majors. 18 year old Luis Garcia did more than any other position player prospect to boost his stock this year, slashing .298/.336/.406 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and an 82/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games between Class A Hagerstown and Potomac. The bat is a little lighter than Kieboom's, but he is exceptionally young and won't even turn 19 until May. His strong performances in A ball, with no loss of production with the promotion from Class A to High A, point to a very advanced bat for his age. As of now, he also looks like he can stick at shortstop, so the big question will be how much power he can develop. Two more infielders from Garcia's class, 19 year old Yasel Antuna and 18 year old Jose Sanchez, have not developed as quickly. Antuna spent the year at Hagerstown, slashing .220/.293/.331 with six home runs and a 79/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 87 games, while Sanchez played at Short Season Auburn and slashed .230/.309/.282 with no home runs and a 56/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 64 games. Sanchez is considered the stronger defender, perhaps even ahead of Garcia, but both bats are clearly still transitioning to pro baseball. Right now, they look like utility men at best, but a lot can change for players of that age. 23 year old Drew Ward is a different type of prospect, wielding a more advanced bat but also obviously much older. In 2018, he slashed .249/.363/.422 with 13 home runs and a 115/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games at AA Harrisburg and AAA Syracuse. He has a very nice power/patience combination, but he struggles to get to his power enough for it to make much of a difference at this point and he's looking more like a bench bat who could be up in the majors by September of 2019. Lastly, 22 year old KJ Harrison came over in the Gio Gonzalez trade and really struggled in his first full season after being drafted in the third round (84th overall) out of Oregon State in 2017. In 115 games at the Brewers' Class A affiliate, he slashed .228/.298/.384 with 12 home runs and a 147/39 strikeout to walk ratio, showing some power but overall not looking like the fairly advanced bat the Brewers thought they were drafting. He has a chance to turn it around in 2019, but he can't really afford another lost season like 2018.
Outfielders and Catchers: OF Daniel Johnson, OF Austin Davidson, OF Gage Canning, OF Telmito Agustin, C Raudy Read, C Tres Barrera, and C Israel Pineda
The outfield isn't as deep as the infield, with only five prospects with any kind of projection (the previously mentioned Victor Robles being the fifth), and all of them come with plenty of risk. 23 year old Daniel Johnson put himself on the map with a breakout 2017 in A ball (.298/.356/.505, 22 HR, 22 SB) but slowed down a bit in 2018 with a .269/.327/.412 line, seven home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 92/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games, mostly at AA Harrisburg. Last year, Johnson flashed a power/speed combination that's hard to find, but the power wasn't really there in 2018 and right now his projection looks something along the lines of a Michael A. Taylor. 25 year old Austin Davidson is an older prospect without much projection remaining, but he's coming off a nice season where he slashed .292/.374/.482 with 11 home runs and a 53/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games at High A Potomac and Harrisburg. He could be a nice bench bat but probably not more. Deeper into the minors, 21 year old Gage Canning had a nice debut after being drafted in the fifth round out of Arizona State this year, slashing .253/.319/.470 with six home runs and a 54/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between Short Season Auburn and Class A Hagerstown, with the bulk of the production coming before his promotion. Right now, Canning has a fourth outfielder projection, but I would not count him out as a potential starter down the road as he has few weaknesses in his game as an all-around solid contributor. He's a breakout candidate for 2019. 22 year old Telmito Agustin has been very slow to get his minor league career going, and he just wrapped up his fifth minor league season by slashing .273/.338/.404 with six home runs and a 63/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 games between Auburn and Potomac. He's a good hitter that shows all-around skills at the plate when he's healthy, but he has never been healthy for long enough to really find his groove at the plate and show what he can do. The Nationals are hoping to get another potential fourth outfielder out of him, but he has to stay healthy to become that. Of the three notable catchers in the system, which the Nationals are fortunate to have, 25 year old Raudy Read is the most advanced. Read had a power breakout in 2017 by slugging 17 home runs, but he was then busted for PED's and came back to slash .279/.319/.401 with just three home runs at Harrisburg and AAA Syracuse after his suspension in 2018. He's a solid defensive catcher, but with a so-so bat, he's likely to compete with Pedro Severino and Spencer Kieboom for the backup catcher's spot in 2019. A little farther down the line, 24 year old Tres Barrera slashed .263/.334/.386 with six home runs and a 53/22 strikeout to walk ratio at Potomac, also showing a so-so bat to go along with good defense. There is definitely some power in the bat and he keeps his strikeout rate reasonably low, but as with Read, it looks more like a backup catcher's profile. Perhaps the highest ceiling catcher in the Nationals' system is 18 year old Israel Pineda, who slashed a very respectable .273/.341/.388 with four home runs and a 35/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games down at Auburn. He's an advanced hitter for a teenager, especially for a catcher, and he should also be noted on that list of potential breakouts for 2019. If all goes well (which is definitely not a given with catching prospects), Pineda could occupy a very different spot in the Nationals' minor league depth chart a year from now.
Right Handed Pitchers: Wil Crowe, Mason Denaburg, Sterling Sharp, James Bourque, Jackson Tetreault, and Reid Schaller
The Nationals have traded away tons of pitching talent recently, and they're left with a fairly shallow pool. Among the right handers in the group, 24 year old Wil Crowe is the closest impact arm to the majors. He dominated at High A Potomac (11-0, 2.69 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 78/30 K/BB in 87 IP) but struggled upon his promotion to AA Harrisburg (0-5, 6.15 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 15/16 K/BB in 26.1 IP). He's a big 6'2" righty from East Tennessee, and he gets by showing decent control of mid-rotation stuff. Crowe has to acclimate to the upper minors, as he has proven that A ball hitting is no match for him. His combination of stuff and command is good enough for the upper levels, so it's just a matter of time and he should end up as a #4ish starter. 19 year old Mason Denaburg, meanwhile, was the team's first round pick (27th overall) out of a Florida high school in 2018, and he's all ceiling and no floor. Denaburg has the stuff to be a #2 or #3 starter, and his good athleticism only makes him more likely to become one, but he has not pitched yet due to arm troubles and he has a lot to prove. He should be healthy for 2019, so look for him to start either in Short Season ball or up at Class A Hagerstown, where he could quickly become the system's top pitching prospect with some success out of the gate. 23 year old Sterling Sharp, aside from having an awesome name, just put up a solid season by going 11-6 with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 105/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 148.1 innings between Potomac and Harrisburg. He wasn't spectacular, but he showed good enough stuff and command to fit into the back of the rotation, and while his skinny 6'4" frame logically lends itself to increased velocity down the line, at 23 years old he probably is what he is at this point. 25 year old James Bourque is exclusively a relief-only prospect, having found success in the bullpen after being converted from starting over the offseason. This year, he put up a 1.70 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 76/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 innings at Potomac and Harrisburg, showing a power fastball/curveball combination that is good enough to get major leaguers out but which he needs to command better. Expect him up in the majors as a middle reliever some time in 2019. 22 year old Jackson Tetreault was one of two Florida JuCo Jacksons taken by the Nationals in the middle rounds of the 2017 draft, and while Jackson Stoeckinger hasn't been great, Tetreault just put up a 4.07 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 138/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 132.2 innings between Class A Hagerstown and Potomac. Tetrault has a very good fastball/curveball combination, and he could be a mid rotation or back end starter if his changeup comes along. If not, he fits well as a reliever and would move quicker through the minors that way, though the Nationals rightly hold out hope he could be a major league starter. 21 year old Reid Schaller was a third round pick (101st overall) out of Vanderbilt in 2018, and though he's a college arm, he's more of the projectable type than the safe-bet type. Schaller throws hard, but at this point, that's about it, as he doesn't command his average stuff well. The Nationals will hope to develop him as a starter, but he looks more like a set-up man to me.
Left Handed Pitchers: Seth Romero, Tim Cate, Nick Raquet, and Ben Braymer
Currently, the Nationals have four notable left handed pitchers in their system, and they're a fairly diverse group. 22 year old Seth Romero is probably the most interesting not only in this group but in the entire system, having thrown just 47.1 professional innings since he was drafted in the first round (25th overall) out of the University of Houston in 2017. A top ten draft pick on talent alone, he fell because of severe disciplinary issues (he was actually kicked off of his college baseball team after multiple suspensions) and had to miss the start of the 2018 minor league season after more disciplinary issues. In seven starts after coming back, he posted a 3.91 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a nice 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings at Class A Hagerstown, showing the possible front of the rotation stuff that earned him such a high draft pick. If he can just grow up a little bit, his excellent combination of stuff and command could make him a #2 starter, but he has to get on the mound and stay out of trouble at some point in order for that to happen. 21 year old Tim Cate was a second round pick (65th overall) out of UConn in 2018, and he posted a 5.02 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 45/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings between Short Season Auburn and Hagerstown in his pro debut. Cate is an undersized lefty at 6', but his curveball was considered one of the best in the draft and that is a good building block for now. He was inconsistent throughout his college career, but when he was on, he looked like a legitimate mid-rotation starter who could mix pitches and work off that great curveball, so he just has to work on getting more consistent with his command and other pitches. He still could be a mid-rotation starter, but there is a chance he ends up in the bullpen, where he could still be an impact arm. 22 year old Nick Raquet was a third round pick (103rd overall) out of William & Mary in 2017, and at the time I thought he profiled better as a reliever than as a starter. He was pretty good as a starter in 2018 though, posting a 3.74 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and a 92/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.2 innings between Hagerstown and High A Potomac. The low strikeout rate makes me think he still would look better as a reliever, where his stuff plays up and his command is better (based off of observations from watching him pitch in college), but it was nice to see him pitch well as a starter at Hagerstown then hold his own at Potomac. 24 year old Ben Braymer dominated mid level competition in 2018, going 9-3 with a 2.28 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 118/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.2 innings for Hagerstown and Potomac. He was older than most of the competition he faced, but he showed good command of average stuff and could make it to the majors as a #5 starter or a Sammy Solis-type long reliever. We need to see him at higher levels but don't count him out just for his age.
Affiliates: AAA Syracuse Chiefs*, AA Harrisburg Senators, High A Potomac Nationals, Class A Hagerstown Suns, Short Season Auburn Doubledays, complex level GCL and DSL Nationals
*AAA affiliate will move from Syracuse, NY to Fresno, CA in 2019
The Headliner: OF Victor Robles
21 year old Victor Robles was supposed to do what Juan Soto did in 2018, but an arm injury wiped out most of his season and he finished slashing .276/.371/.370 with a pair of home runs and 19 stolen bases over 52 games, showing a nice 32/26 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA Syracuse. He's an extremely advanced player for his age, showing power, on-base ability, speed, and great defense at a young age, and at this point all he needs is an extended shot. I don't think he's the future superstar that a lot of analysts have pegged him as, but I see him producing like an Adam Eaton-type player for a long time, making a few All Star teams and hitting at the top of the lineup as long as manager Dave Martinez realizes that hitting for power doesn't make you a bad leadoff man. In 21 major league games this year, he slashed .288/.348/.525 with three home runs and three stolen bases, showing that he's ready and that the Nationals should be prepared to make him their starting center fielder in 2019 and beyond.
Infield Prospects: SS Carter Kieboom, SS Luis Garcia, SS Yasel Antuna, SS Jose Sanchez, 3B Drew Ward, and 1B KJ Harrison
The Nationals system is fortunate to have plenty of shortstops in the minors, and while most of these guys will either have to move off the position or won't have the bat to hit in the majors, it's nice knowing at least one will probably work out as a starting shortstop. The most likely major leaguer is 21 year old Carter Kieboom, a shortstop right now who may be able to cut it at that position in the majors but whose more likely destination is second or third base, depending on Anthony Rendon. Kieboom missed time to injuries in 2017 but had a big 2018 by slashing .280/.357/.444 with 16 home runs and a 109/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at High A Potomac and AA Harrisburg, showing power, plate discipline, and good defense. His game is actually fairly similar to Rendon's, and while Rendon represents more of a ceiling than a most likely outcome for Kieboom, he could be a 20 homer bat with strong on-base percentages in the majors. 18 year old Luis Garcia did more than any other position player prospect to boost his stock this year, slashing .298/.336/.406 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and an 82/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games between Class A Hagerstown and Potomac. The bat is a little lighter than Kieboom's, but he is exceptionally young and won't even turn 19 until May. His strong performances in A ball, with no loss of production with the promotion from Class A to High A, point to a very advanced bat for his age. As of now, he also looks like he can stick at shortstop, so the big question will be how much power he can develop. Two more infielders from Garcia's class, 19 year old Yasel Antuna and 18 year old Jose Sanchez, have not developed as quickly. Antuna spent the year at Hagerstown, slashing .220/.293/.331 with six home runs and a 79/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 87 games, while Sanchez played at Short Season Auburn and slashed .230/.309/.282 with no home runs and a 56/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 64 games. Sanchez is considered the stronger defender, perhaps even ahead of Garcia, but both bats are clearly still transitioning to pro baseball. Right now, they look like utility men at best, but a lot can change for players of that age. 23 year old Drew Ward is a different type of prospect, wielding a more advanced bat but also obviously much older. In 2018, he slashed .249/.363/.422 with 13 home runs and a 115/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games at AA Harrisburg and AAA Syracuse. He has a very nice power/patience combination, but he struggles to get to his power enough for it to make much of a difference at this point and he's looking more like a bench bat who could be up in the majors by September of 2019. Lastly, 22 year old KJ Harrison came over in the Gio Gonzalez trade and really struggled in his first full season after being drafted in the third round (84th overall) out of Oregon State in 2017. In 115 games at the Brewers' Class A affiliate, he slashed .228/.298/.384 with 12 home runs and a 147/39 strikeout to walk ratio, showing some power but overall not looking like the fairly advanced bat the Brewers thought they were drafting. He has a chance to turn it around in 2019, but he can't really afford another lost season like 2018.
Outfielders and Catchers: OF Daniel Johnson, OF Austin Davidson, OF Gage Canning, OF Telmito Agustin, C Raudy Read, C Tres Barrera, and C Israel Pineda
The outfield isn't as deep as the infield, with only five prospects with any kind of projection (the previously mentioned Victor Robles being the fifth), and all of them come with plenty of risk. 23 year old Daniel Johnson put himself on the map with a breakout 2017 in A ball (.298/.356/.505, 22 HR, 22 SB) but slowed down a bit in 2018 with a .269/.327/.412 line, seven home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 92/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games, mostly at AA Harrisburg. Last year, Johnson flashed a power/speed combination that's hard to find, but the power wasn't really there in 2018 and right now his projection looks something along the lines of a Michael A. Taylor. 25 year old Austin Davidson is an older prospect without much projection remaining, but he's coming off a nice season where he slashed .292/.374/.482 with 11 home runs and a 53/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games at High A Potomac and Harrisburg. He could be a nice bench bat but probably not more. Deeper into the minors, 21 year old Gage Canning had a nice debut after being drafted in the fifth round out of Arizona State this year, slashing .253/.319/.470 with six home runs and a 54/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between Short Season Auburn and Class A Hagerstown, with the bulk of the production coming before his promotion. Right now, Canning has a fourth outfielder projection, but I would not count him out as a potential starter down the road as he has few weaknesses in his game as an all-around solid contributor. He's a breakout candidate for 2019. 22 year old Telmito Agustin has been very slow to get his minor league career going, and he just wrapped up his fifth minor league season by slashing .273/.338/.404 with six home runs and a 63/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 games between Auburn and Potomac. He's a good hitter that shows all-around skills at the plate when he's healthy, but he has never been healthy for long enough to really find his groove at the plate and show what he can do. The Nationals are hoping to get another potential fourth outfielder out of him, but he has to stay healthy to become that. Of the three notable catchers in the system, which the Nationals are fortunate to have, 25 year old Raudy Read is the most advanced. Read had a power breakout in 2017 by slugging 17 home runs, but he was then busted for PED's and came back to slash .279/.319/.401 with just three home runs at Harrisburg and AAA Syracuse after his suspension in 2018. He's a solid defensive catcher, but with a so-so bat, he's likely to compete with Pedro Severino and Spencer Kieboom for the backup catcher's spot in 2019. A little farther down the line, 24 year old Tres Barrera slashed .263/.334/.386 with six home runs and a 53/22 strikeout to walk ratio at Potomac, also showing a so-so bat to go along with good defense. There is definitely some power in the bat and he keeps his strikeout rate reasonably low, but as with Read, it looks more like a backup catcher's profile. Perhaps the highest ceiling catcher in the Nationals' system is 18 year old Israel Pineda, who slashed a very respectable .273/.341/.388 with four home runs and a 35/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games down at Auburn. He's an advanced hitter for a teenager, especially for a catcher, and he should also be noted on that list of potential breakouts for 2019. If all goes well (which is definitely not a given with catching prospects), Pineda could occupy a very different spot in the Nationals' minor league depth chart a year from now.
Right Handed Pitchers: Wil Crowe, Mason Denaburg, Sterling Sharp, James Bourque, Jackson Tetreault, and Reid Schaller
The Nationals have traded away tons of pitching talent recently, and they're left with a fairly shallow pool. Among the right handers in the group, 24 year old Wil Crowe is the closest impact arm to the majors. He dominated at High A Potomac (11-0, 2.69 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 78/30 K/BB in 87 IP) but struggled upon his promotion to AA Harrisburg (0-5, 6.15 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 15/16 K/BB in 26.1 IP). He's a big 6'2" righty from East Tennessee, and he gets by showing decent control of mid-rotation stuff. Crowe has to acclimate to the upper minors, as he has proven that A ball hitting is no match for him. His combination of stuff and command is good enough for the upper levels, so it's just a matter of time and he should end up as a #4ish starter. 19 year old Mason Denaburg, meanwhile, was the team's first round pick (27th overall) out of a Florida high school in 2018, and he's all ceiling and no floor. Denaburg has the stuff to be a #2 or #3 starter, and his good athleticism only makes him more likely to become one, but he has not pitched yet due to arm troubles and he has a lot to prove. He should be healthy for 2019, so look for him to start either in Short Season ball or up at Class A Hagerstown, where he could quickly become the system's top pitching prospect with some success out of the gate. 23 year old Sterling Sharp, aside from having an awesome name, just put up a solid season by going 11-6 with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 105/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 148.1 innings between Potomac and Harrisburg. He wasn't spectacular, but he showed good enough stuff and command to fit into the back of the rotation, and while his skinny 6'4" frame logically lends itself to increased velocity down the line, at 23 years old he probably is what he is at this point. 25 year old James Bourque is exclusively a relief-only prospect, having found success in the bullpen after being converted from starting over the offseason. This year, he put up a 1.70 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 76/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 innings at Potomac and Harrisburg, showing a power fastball/curveball combination that is good enough to get major leaguers out but which he needs to command better. Expect him up in the majors as a middle reliever some time in 2019. 22 year old Jackson Tetreault was one of two Florida JuCo Jacksons taken by the Nationals in the middle rounds of the 2017 draft, and while Jackson Stoeckinger hasn't been great, Tetreault just put up a 4.07 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 138/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 132.2 innings between Class A Hagerstown and Potomac. Tetrault has a very good fastball/curveball combination, and he could be a mid rotation or back end starter if his changeup comes along. If not, he fits well as a reliever and would move quicker through the minors that way, though the Nationals rightly hold out hope he could be a major league starter. 21 year old Reid Schaller was a third round pick (101st overall) out of Vanderbilt in 2018, and though he's a college arm, he's more of the projectable type than the safe-bet type. Schaller throws hard, but at this point, that's about it, as he doesn't command his average stuff well. The Nationals will hope to develop him as a starter, but he looks more like a set-up man to me.
Left Handed Pitchers: Seth Romero, Tim Cate, Nick Raquet, and Ben Braymer
Currently, the Nationals have four notable left handed pitchers in their system, and they're a fairly diverse group. 22 year old Seth Romero is probably the most interesting not only in this group but in the entire system, having thrown just 47.1 professional innings since he was drafted in the first round (25th overall) out of the University of Houston in 2017. A top ten draft pick on talent alone, he fell because of severe disciplinary issues (he was actually kicked off of his college baseball team after multiple suspensions) and had to miss the start of the 2018 minor league season after more disciplinary issues. In seven starts after coming back, he posted a 3.91 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a nice 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings at Class A Hagerstown, showing the possible front of the rotation stuff that earned him such a high draft pick. If he can just grow up a little bit, his excellent combination of stuff and command could make him a #2 starter, but he has to get on the mound and stay out of trouble at some point in order for that to happen. 21 year old Tim Cate was a second round pick (65th overall) out of UConn in 2018, and he posted a 5.02 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 45/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings between Short Season Auburn and Hagerstown in his pro debut. Cate is an undersized lefty at 6', but his curveball was considered one of the best in the draft and that is a good building block for now. He was inconsistent throughout his college career, but when he was on, he looked like a legitimate mid-rotation starter who could mix pitches and work off that great curveball, so he just has to work on getting more consistent with his command and other pitches. He still could be a mid-rotation starter, but there is a chance he ends up in the bullpen, where he could still be an impact arm. 22 year old Nick Raquet was a third round pick (103rd overall) out of William & Mary in 2017, and at the time I thought he profiled better as a reliever than as a starter. He was pretty good as a starter in 2018 though, posting a 3.74 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and a 92/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.2 innings between Hagerstown and High A Potomac. The low strikeout rate makes me think he still would look better as a reliever, where his stuff plays up and his command is better (based off of observations from watching him pitch in college), but it was nice to see him pitch well as a starter at Hagerstown then hold his own at Potomac. 24 year old Ben Braymer dominated mid level competition in 2018, going 9-3 with a 2.28 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 118/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.2 innings for Hagerstown and Potomac. He was older than most of the competition he faced, but he showed good command of average stuff and could make it to the majors as a #5 starter or a Sammy Solis-type long reliever. We need to see him at higher levels but don't count him out just for his age.
Tuesday, November 28, 2017
Reviewing My 2016 Draft Rankings
Intro
I composed my first draft prospect list in 2015, which went 60 deep and, as you would expect from my first time, was filled with holes. I was able to successfully project the success of players like Walker Buehler, Kolby Allard, and Triston McKenzie, but swung and missed badly with a low ranking of Andrew Benintendi and a high ranking of Mike Nikorak. In 2016, with a year's experience under my belt, I ranked 150 players and published the top 100, and while it still wasn't my best work, I was much happier with it than I was with my 2015 rankings. I believe 2017 was the first year where I truly am content, but seeing that you can't evaluate a draft class on its first pro season, let's take a look back at how my 2016 draft rankings have fared 16 months in.
Linked here are my top 100 draft prospects for 2016: http://www.coverthosebas
There will be three sections:
Biggest Successes: Players that I ranked well ahead of industry consensus who, after their first full professional season, have outplayed that consensus and fit closer with my ranking than with most others
Biggest Misses I: Players that have outplayed my predictions, proving my ranking to be too conservative
Biggest Misses II: Players who I ranked well ahead of industry consensus who have not lived up to my expectations, proving my ranking to be too aggressive
Biggest Successes
#8 Forrest Whitley (MLB.com ranking: 12. Draft position: 17, Astros)
I loved everything about Whitley coming into draft day, noting the excellent downhill plane on his mid-90's fastball and his late-breaking, two-plane curveball. Putting an asterisk next to his name because of how high I was on him, I saw the potential to be an ace who could easily wind up as at least a mid-rotation starter. While he was ranked eighth on my list and 12th on MLB.com, he fell to pick #17, where the Astros took him. After a decent debut that summer, he caught fire this year and reached AA as a teenager. Not only did he pitch for AA Corpus Christi just 14 months after graduating high school, he actually thrived, posting a 1.84 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a sharp 26/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 14.2 innings. I projected him as a potential ace, and he has done everything necessary to remain on track for that.
#11 Dakota Hudson (MLB.com ranking: 15. Draft position: 34, Cardinals)
This is another instance where my ranking, MLB.com's ranking, and the draft position were all in order. I bought in on Hudson's breakout season at Mississippi State, citing his devastating fastball/slider combination despite the lack of a proven track record. Despite being thought of as more of a project than a finished product, Hudson has progressed rapidly through the St. Louis farm system, starting 2017 off with AA Springfield and pitching very well (9-4, 2.53 ERA, 77/34 K/BB) before a late season promotion to AAA Memphis in just his first full professional season. While his Memphis numbers weren't excellent (4.42 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 19/15 K/BB in 38.2 innings), the fact of the matter is that he was in AAA barely a year removed from college and that he has addressed, though not fully vanquished, questions about his durability. He'll need more polish at AAA to begin 2018, but we should see the Tennessee native in the majors at some point during the year, my buying into his breakout year is looking pretty good.
#28 Carter Kieboom (MLB.com ranking: 45. Draft position: 28, Nationals)
This one is different than the first two, because both I and the Nationals saw something in Kieboom that MLB.com didn't. I saw his long swing but noticed that the bat head was in the zone for a long time, comparing him to Anthony Rendon if he could tap into his raw power. Pessimists didn't like the risk he carried, but I was enamored enough with his offensive upside to put label him a first round talent. Like Whitely, he earned an asterisk next to his name, used to denote my favorite players in the draft. The Nationals seemingly agreed with my optimism, taking him in the same spot I ranked him. He has exceeded expectations so far, sticking at shortstop for now despite most prognosticating him as a third baseman, and his bat has translated up to full season ball with no problems. In 48 games at Class A Hagerstown (with time missed to injury), he slashed .296/.400/.497 with eight home runs and a solid 40/28 strikeout to walk ratio despite not turning 20 until the very end of the season. If he can stay healthy, that Anthony Rendon projection could work out.
#34 Alec Hansen (MLB.com ranking: 62. Draft position: 49, White Sox)
Alec Hansen was an interesting case. The 6'7" right hander entered the spring as a candidate to go #1 overall with his mid to upper 90's fastball and solid secondaries, but his command completely dissolved at the beginning of the season and he was booted from Oklahoma's rotation. He managed to right the ship somewhat as the season went on, but his final line was less than inspiring: 5.40 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 75/39 K/BB in 51.2 innings against mostly Big 12 competition. He had the high strikeout numbers, but if he couldn't harness his stuff, that would mean nothing at the next level. He plummeted in the rankings, but I chose to stay on the bandwagon and keep him at #34, 28 spots higher than MLB.com and 15 spots higher than his eventual draft position. I noted that pro coaching had the potential to streamline his delivery and improve his consistency, and so far, the results have been excellent. In 38 starts since being drafted, Hansen is 13-9 with a 2.39 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and most impressively, a 272/71 strikeout to walk ratio in 196 innings. He reached AA at the end of this season, making two starts and posting a 17/3 strikeout to walk ratio in 10.1 innings. The difference has been the return of his control, which was non-existent at OU (6.79 BB/9 in his junior year) but has reached an acceptable level in the minors (3.26 BB/9). At this point, he's looking more and more like the pitcher many thought could go first overall, and #34 could be too conservative a ranking when it's all said and done.
#56 Mike Shawaryn (MLB.com ranking: 139. Draft position: 148, Red Sox)
Mike Shawaryn is like Hansen-lite. After an excellent sophomore season at Maryland (13-2, 1.71 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 138/29 K/BB), he entered the spring as a potential first round pick. However, his junior season was inconsistent (6-4, 3.18 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 97/26 K/BB), and he slipped way down draft boards. He had a funky delivery to begin with, and skeptics saw the regression as a sign that his mechanics wouldn't work at the next level. I dropped him a fair amount as well, but I kept him in the top 60 because I didn't think his 2016 was as frightening as people thought. He maintained a high strikeout rate with 97 in 99 innings (I can't find batters faced data anywhere, so I don't know the K% or BB%), and he maintained a low walk rate of 2.36 per nine. The fact that he had solid control was what eased my mind over the mechanical worries, but it didn't for MLB teams, and he slipped to the fifth round, where the Red Sox took him 148th overall. Through 32 minor league starts reaching up to High Class A, he hasn't been amazing but he has more than held his own, going 8-8 with a 3.71 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 191/55 strikeout to walk ratio in 150.1 innings. Those numbers don't pop off the page, but I do like the high strikeout rate, and he's looking more like a second or third round pick than a fifth rounder right now. We'll have to keep an eye on the 0.80 career ground out to air out ratio though.
#63 Akil Baddoo (MLB.com ranking: 72. Draft position: 74, Twins)
This one is interesting. As of draft day, he was an extremely raw player with poor mechanics whose athleticism and overall trajectory got him noticed. He had big bat speed but looked like he would need a lot of refinement from pro coaching to get anywhere. A .178/.299/.570 slash line in the Gulf Coast League in 2016 seemingly confirmed that, though his 14.2% walk rate was promising. He spent the beginning of 2017 back in the GCL, slashing .267/.360/.440 in 20 games, but he caught fire upon a promotion to rookie level Elizabethton. In 33 games, the 18-19 year old slashed .357/.478/.579, walking 27 times (17.2%) to just 19 strikeouts (12.1%), boosting his stock considerably. Baddoo may have been raw last year, but he is well on his way to reaching his lofty ceiling.
#72 Zac Gallen (MLB.com ranking: 78. Draft position: 106, Cardinals)
My ranking wasn't too far ahead of MLB.com's ranking, but Gallen has been a success despite slipping out of the top 100, so I'll call it a win. He had a solid but unspectacular junior season at UNC (2.68 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 95/21 K/BB in 90.2 innings), relying more on pitchability and smarts than on pure stuff. Cognizant of that pitchability, I liked the stuff just enough to rank him ahead of industry consensus, and he's rewarded me so far. Just like Dakota Hudson, he was drafted by the Cardinals and ended up pitching in AAA by the end of 2017. Through 32 minor league games (29 starts), he is 10-8 with a 2.86 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 136/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 157.1 innings, and he should be one of the first pitchers from his draft class to break into the majors.
#74 Garrett Williams (MLB.com ranking: 154. Draft position: 215, Giants)
This is one I am very proud of. Scouts liked his stuff, but he struggled to stay healthy (31.2 innings in sophomore and junior seasons at Oklahoma State combined) and with his command (30 walks in that span). I was particularly enamored with his stuff, noting an "angled, running fastball, a two-plane curveball that he can mend the shape of, and a fading changeup" (from my 2016 pre-draft notes). I liked his delivery as well, and noted that getting farther from his shoulder injury could help improve his dreadful command, especially as he was on the mound consistently. This all depended on him staying healthy, but so far, he has, and he has thus far justified my extremely optimistic ranking 141 spots higher than he was picked. In 2017, between Class A Augusta and High Class A San Jose in the hitters' paradise California League, Williams went 6-5 with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP, striking out 96 to 35 walks in 97 innings. The walk rate is still a bit high, but it has come down significantly from college and I think it will continue to do so. Watch this one.
Biggest Misses I (under-projected)
#7 Nick Senzel (MLB.com ranking: 7. Draft position: 2, Reds)
This isn't that big of a miss considering I ranked Senzel in the same place as MLB.com, but I still underestimated him. His big junior season at Tennessee saw him slash .352/.456/.595 with eight home runs, but I saw him more as a solid third baseman than as a star. I recognized his high floor, but wasn't sold on a ceiling of anything higher than a solid, Chase Headley-type third baseman. However, he has already reached AA and is slashing .315/.393/.514 with 21 home runs in his minor league career, including a .340/.413/.560 line in 57 games at AA Pensacola. He still may not be on track for that Headley comparison, but he's skirting right along his ceiling and could push it higher into the Anthony Rendon range (like Kieboom).
#77 Bo Bichette (MLB.com ranking: 90. Draft position: 66, Blue Jays)
I actually ranked Bichette thirteen spots ahead of MLB.com, but also eleven spots behind where he was taken by the Blue Jays. The talent was evident, as he showed great bat speed and bat control, even if his mechanics were a little wild. However, I, along with most of the teams who picked before the Jays, missed the true potential, as literally everything has gone right for Bichette since draft day. Through 132 games across three levels (22 in the GCL, 70 in Class A, 40 in High Class A), the 19 year old is slashing .372/.427/.591 with 18 home runs, 50 doubles, and 25 stolen bases, including a .323/.379/.463 line at High A this year in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. Despite being ranked 90th in his draft class by MLB.com in June 2016, he is now ranked as the 25th best prospect in all of baseball, and in my opinion, MLB.com is being too conservative yet again.
#117 Austin Hays (MLB.com ranking: 120. Draft position: 91, Orioles)
Again, I had Hays three spots ahead of MLB.com (as you can see, they're not very good prognosticators), but the Orioles recognized offensive ability that I didn't and took him 26 spots higher than I ranked him. I liked his quick swing but I didn't think the power would hold as he moved up, knocking him out of my top 100. As it turns out, his offensive breakout at the University of Jacksonville was no joke, and he has cracked no fewer than 36 minor league home runs over 166 games so far, slashing .330/.370/.576 in the short season New-York Penn League (38 games in 2016), High A Carolina League (64 games in 2017), and AA Eastern League (64 games). He even earned a September promotion to the big leagues, adding a 37th professional home run as the first player from the 2016 draft class to reach the majors.
#148 Bryse Wilson (MLB.com ranking: 144. Draft position: 109, Braves)
I saw nothing particularly special in Wilson, a high schooler from North Carolina, noting an uneven arm path and what I saw as a below-average slider. The Braves loved the arm strength that I merely liked, taking him 39 spots ahead of my ranking, and it has paid off in spades so far. The slider still isn't great, but they cleaned up his arm path and both his velocity and command have held up, helping him put up an excellent season for Class A Rome this year. Over 26 starts, the 19 year old went 10-7 with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP, striking out 139 and walking 37 in 137 innings. There are still questions as to how he will hold up at the higher levels without that slider, and he may still turn out to be a reliever, but there is certainly talent here that I did not pick up.
Biggest Misses II (over-projected)
#1 Mickey Moniak (MLB.com ranking: 5. Draft position: 1, Phillies)
This one is an interesting case. Moniak had helium throughout the Spring of 2016, starting as a mid-first round candidate before hitting his way into the top ten and ultimately top five consideration. General industry consensus never moved him past the 4-7 range, but he was a personal favorite of mine due to his swing mechanics and makeup, so I aggressively ranked him number one on my draft board well before the Phillies buzz. As it turned out, the Phillies agreed with me, selecting Moniak first overall. They aggressively assigned him to Class A Lakewood this year, and the results were underwhelming to say the least: .236/.284/.341, five home runs, eleven stolen bases in 123 games. He may have been 19 playing in full season ball, but those numbers just don't cut it. Unfortunately, when I saw Lakewood play at Delmarva on my day off work, Moniak was on the bench, and I only got to see one pinch-hitting plate appearance (he grounded out). Moniak is far from a bust, but he'll probably repeat the level in 2018 in hopes of adjusting. I still have high hopes for Moniak being a star outfielder in Philadelphia, but other players such as Forrest Whitley, Nick Senzel, Bo Bichette, and A.J. Puk have moved ahead of him in his draft class.
#15 Buddy Reed (MLB.com ranking: 30. Draft position: 48, Padres)
I remained optimistic on Alec Hansen and Mike Shawaryn when their stock faded, and that worked out, but it didn't work out when I did the same for Buddy Reed. An extremely athletic outfielder who slashed .305/.367/.433 with 18 stolen bases as a sophomore at Florida, he regressed to .262/.362/.395 with 24 stolen bases as a junior, looking lost at the plate and leading many scouts to question his floor. I still liked his athleticism at the time, but looking back, the warning signs were there, as his high sophomore strikeout rate (17.9%) jumped to 20.5% as a junior. In his full season debut with Class A Fort Wayne this year, he put up a disappointing .234/.290/.396 line with six home runs and 12 stolen bases in 88 games, striking out in 28% of his plate appearances. His athleticism could still help him adjust as he moves up, but he certainly hasn't justified a mid-first round ranking and probably never will.
#49 Jake Fraley (MLB.com ranking: 89. Draft position: 77, Rays)
As of draft day, Fraley struck me as a high floor, low ceiling outfielder who would ultimately fall somewhere between a Sam Fuld and a Gerardo Parra, with the overall projection of a starting outfielder with speed but limited pop. He slashed a career best .326/.408/.464 with five home runs and 28 stolen bases as a junior at LSU in 2016, showing a quick swing and an 11.8% walk rate (coupled with a 10.5% strikeout rate) that led me to make that high-floor projection. Unfortunately, injuries have limited his time on the field in pro ball, and in the 85 total games he has seen on the field, he is slashing just .229/.319/.356 with three home runs and 37 stolen bases. He spent 26 games in the High Class A Florida State League in 2017, which turned out to be a miserable failure as he slashed .170/.238/.255 with one home run, one stolen base, three caught stealing's, and a 22.9% strikeout rate to just a 6.7% walk rate. The 22 year old could concievably bounce back when healthy, but he has a lot of catch-up to play and just as much to prove.
#81 Walker Robbins (MLB.com ranking: 93. Draft position: 166, Cardinals)
This one is just a straight miss on my part. Robbins was a country strong power hitter from rural southeastern Mississippi, one who I believed could break out with pro refinement once his swing was cleaned up. Unfortunately, a year and a half later, that hasn't happened. Through 70 pro games (30 in the complex level Gulf Coast League in 2016, 40 in the Appalachian League in 2017), Robbins is slashing just .179/.239/.246 with two home runs and a 79/19 strikeout to walk ratio. That comes out to a 30% strikeout rate, a 7.2% walk rate, and virtually no production. Robbins is still just 19 and has time to right the ship, but at this point he is looking like a long shot.
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