2019 Draft Review: Detroit Tigers

First five rounds: Riley Greene (1-5), Nick Quintana (2-47), Andre Lipcius (3-83), Ryan Kreidler (4-112), Bryant Packard (5-142)
Also notable: Cooper Johnson (6-172), Zack Hess (7-202), Austin Bergner (9-262), Cade Doughty (39-1162)

The Tigers' draft strategy was very clear-cut here. After loading up their farm system with tons of high upside pitchers like Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Alex Faedo, Beau Burrows, Kyle Funkhouser, and Tarik Skubal, they decided to flip the script and grab exclusively hitters this year, taking bats with their first six picks. Between potential lineup-anchor Riley Greene, power bats Nick Quintana, Andre Lipcius, and Bryant Packard, and good defenders like Ryan Kreidler and Cooper Johnson, they really covered their bases. I also really like the seventh round selection of Zack Hess, who could be a fast moving reliever with set-up man or even closer upside. Additionally, they didn't mess around with the bonus pool, signing nine of their first ten picks to exactly slot value deals.

1-5: OF Riley Greene (Hagerty HS [FL], my rank: 6)
While Bobby Witt Jr. garnered a lot of attention as the clear best high school player in the class, Riley Greene might have the best pure high school bat since Brendan Rodgers, who went third overall to the Rockies in 2015 and grew up less than a half hour away. Greene, from the Orlando area like Rodgers, can just flat out hit. He has a big, power producing swing that would typically cause swing and miss issues in most kids his age, but he has exceptional feel for the barrel and still makes consistent hard contact against quality pitching, even against the best arms on the showcase circuit. Add in his excellent plate discipline, and you've got a kid who is probably an even safer bet to hit in pro ball than Rodgers. His raw, batting practice power might not quite stack up with the Brett Baty's or Rece Hinds' of the class, but he's so efficient about getting to it in games that he still projects for 25-30 home runs annually to go along with the high on-base percentages he looks to put up. That gives him the overall outlook of a middle of the order, impact hitter. Defensively, he's just average in left field, but it's the bat the Tigers are buying. Honestly, I see some Juan Soto in him. Committed to Florida, Greene instead signed with the Tigers at slot for $6.18 million and he's slashing .322/.413/.500 with three home runs and a 29/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games between the complex level Gulf Coast League and short season Connecticut.

2-47: SS Nick Quintana (Arizona, my rank: 51)
Nick Quintana was a well-regarded recruit coming out of a Las Vegas high school and ranked #109 on my 2016 draft rankings, then all he did was get better and better each year at Arizona. He had his best year this year, when he slashed .342/.462/.626 with 15 home runs and a 54/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games, including a very strong .313/.434/.661 in-conference in a tough Pac-12 Conference. Quintana is only 5'10" but he hits for plenty of power, and he got to it frequently this year. However, his hit tool is unproven, as his 19.6% strikeout rate was a little high and he also owns a modest .230/.312/.423 line with eleven home runs over two years in the elite Cape Cod League (.259/.351/.435 in the more recent season). There is some length to his swing, though I do think he'll be able to make everything play up in pro ball. Overall, he projects for 25 home runs per season and middling on-base percentages, which still makes him an impact hitter if not a true middle of the lineup guy. The Tigers also picked Quintana up as a shortstop, which seems unlikely given that he played third base for Arizona, but he's a very good defender there and could conceivably move over to shortstop if he can figure out a way to improve his range. Third base is his most likely destination, but he'll certainly be a net-positive there. Quintana signed at slot for $1.58 million and is slashing .210/.286/.290 with a home run and a 34/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games at Class A West Michigan so far.

3-83: 3B Andre Lipcius (Tennessee, unranked)
Like Quintana, Andre Lipcius has hit better and better each year in college. The Williamsburg, Virginia native had his best year this season, slashing .308/.399/.586 with 17 home runs and a 33/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games for Tennessee and still maintaining a .322/.404/.534 line in SEC play. He also slashed .313/.391/.456 in the Cape Cod League this past summer, showing that his production plays up against advanced competition. Lipcius has a big, whippy swing that produces a lot of power, but he managed to keep his strikeout rate down at just 11.9%, which is certainly an encouraging sign for a kid with his profile. Still, the strikeouts will be important to watch as he moves through the minors, but in all he has similar offensive upside to Quintana. However, the two differ on defense despite playing the same position, as Lipcius is extremely slow and has limited range at third base despite a strong arm. He may be able to stick there if he continues to improve, but with Quintana likely to end up as the third baseman down the line and the two expected to follow similar timelines, first base is a serious possibility, which will put pressure on the bat. Lipcius signed at slot for $733,100 and is slashing .267/.331/.345 with a home run and a 26/10 strikeout to walk ratio through 30 games with Quintana at West Michigan, interestingly seeing some time at second base.

4-112: 3B Ryan Kreidler (UCLA, unranked)
With guys like Michael Toglia, Chase Strumpf, and Garrett Mitchell around you in the lineup for the #1 team in college baseball for most of the season, it's easy to slip under the radar even with good performance. Ryan Kreidler slashed .300/.370/.502 with nine home runs and a 52/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games for the Bruins, though those numbers dipped slightly to .282/.336/.470 in conference games in the Pac-12. He's 6'4" and that helps him hit for some power, but with the dip his numbers took in conference and the .229/.300/.339 line he put up on the Cape, he has something to prove in pro ball. His plate discipline is so-so and he's more of a line drive hitter anyways, so he'll have to take a step forward with his ability to barrel up the ball with loft if he wants to eventually reach average power. Overall, that's an offensive outlook of 10-15 home runs per season with middling on-base percentages, so more of a utility infielder projection. Defensively, he's quite good, as he has both the defensive actions and arm to profile anywhere in the infield. He'll get run out as a shortstop, where he has a chance to stick, but he could also be a well above average defender at third base if he ends up there. That will buy the bat some time. The Davis, California native signed at slot for $517,400, and he is slashing .253/.362/.356 with a home run and a 26/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games at Connecticut.

5-142: OF Bryant Packard (East Carolina, my rank: 109)
When he's going right, Bryant Packard can really hit. As a sophomore at ECU in 2018, he slashed .406/.462/.671 with 14 home runs, then went on to slash .305/.421/.576 with four home runs and a 17/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games on the Cape. However, he took a small step back in 2019 and finished at .358/.444/.550 with seven home runs and a 44/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games, still great numbers but comparably pedestrian against his 2018 season. His streakiness might stem from his long swing and so-so plate discipline, and he struck out in 17.1% of his plate appearances this year. He seems like the kind of guy where pro coaching could turn him around, as that Cape line shows that he's not afraid of advanced pitching and the power he packs in his 6'3" frame is very real. Defensively, the Greenville, North Carolina native isn't much, so he'll have to hit to move up. He signed at slot for $386,600 and is slashing .328/.380/.500 with two home runs and an 18/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games between Connecticut and West Michigan.

6-172: C Cooper Johnson (Mississippi, unranked)
Cooper Johnson has had an interesting career trajectory. A top prospect out of high school in the Chicago area, he had a shot to go on Day One of the 2016 Draft and ranked 73rd on my list that year. However, he was unsignable and packed it up for Ole Miss, where he slashed just .213/.301/.269 as a freshman and .235/.329/.324 as a sophomore. Heading to the Cape after both seasons, he combined to hit just .145/.275/.145 over 32 games. However, while he didn't quite get his stock back to where it was three years ago, Johnson managed to right the ship a bit this year and finished at a respectable .271/.371/.449 with eight home runs and the same 44/29 strikeout to walk ratio as Packard over 63 games. Perhaps most importantly, he maintained those numbers in SEC play, where he slashed .284/.373/.431. He starts with his hands up over his head at the plate, and he uses his uppercut swing to hit for average power when he's able to get into one. However, the swing is still somewhat long and outside of his decent numbers in SEC play this year, he's completely unproven against higher level pitching. That's okay for now, because he's a catcher with a cannon arm who can handle himself behind the plate. He has a very good chance to stick back there and if he can continue the progress he made in 2019 and find the barrel consistently in pro ball, he could be a backup catcher at the big league level. Johnson signed at slot for $291,400, and he's slashing .226/.355/.306 with a 20/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 games between Connecticut and West Michigan.

7-202: RHP Zack Hess (LSU, my rank: 90)
Ah, the good ole' premium arm with premium stuff who just hasn't gotten results. Zack Hess was draft eligible as a sophomore at LSU last year and ranked 102nd on my list, but he elected to go back to Baton Rouge to try to bump up his stock after his 5.05 ERA that year. However, this year was more of the same as he bounced between the rotation and the bullpen for the LSU, and he finished with a 4.71 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an 82/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 70.2 innings. The Lynchburg, Virginia native is a 6'6" righty with a ton of arm strength, firing his fastball in the low to mid 90's as a starter and bumping it to the upper 90's in relief. He also hurls a plus slider that is devastating in short spurts, though his lack of a changeup caused it to play down in the rotation. Hess also has awkward mechanics and has battled his command throughout his time in Baton Rouge, so his new Tigers organization is going to need to smooth him out there. Honestly, I see no reason for Detroit to try him as a starter at all, and they should just stick him in the bullpen and let him rocket to the majors. Though he's a junior, he turned 22 in February and is the age of a senior, so the bullpen thing becomes even better of an idea. Hess signed at slot for $227,700 and he has a 2.53 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 15/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.2 innings between complex ball, Connecticut, and West Michigan, where he has worked exclusively in relief.

9-262: RHP Austin Bergner (North Carolina, unranked)
Bergner, like a lot of the guys the Tigers drafted this year, was well-regarded in high school, but he opted to attend UNC instead. Draft eligible as a sophomore, he elected to return for his junior year, where he had a 4.94 ERA, a 1.49 WHIP, and a 77/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 innings. The Orlando-area native sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a very good changeup that can really miss bats when he locates it, though his curveball is more average to a bit below. His command comes and goes and he can get hit hard when it's not on, and with the effort with which he throws and his age (turned 22 in May), he might be better off in the bullpen. However, if the Tigers are willing to be patient, they could make him a #4 or #5 starter if he refines his curve and command. Bergner signed at slot for $157,200 and has a 7.20 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 9/4 strikeout to walk ratio over ten innings between complex ball and Connecticut.

39-1162: SS Cade Doughty (Denham Springs HS [LA], my rank: 81)
With a talent level that had him in the second or third round, Cade Doughty fell to the 39th because of signability and he'll make the short trip down I-12 to LSU for school. The Baton Rouge-area high schooler has very good bat to ball skills and feel for the barrel, a semi-projectable frame at 6'1", and enough whip in his swing to have some power projection. His mechanics aren't the most consistent at this point, but he finds the barrel often enough that he should be able to transition fairly smoothly to whatever tweaks the Tigers (the LSU kind) make. He's also a very good defender at third base, and he could also handle second base or the outfield. I find him very interesting and he could make an immediate impact on the LSU program.

2019 Draft Preview: College RHP's

Teams love advanced college pitchers and are quick to take them early, yet this group of right handers is thin at the top and none are threatening to go in the top five picks, with only three looking like locks for the first round. However, once you get past the thin first tier, there are quite a few names to choose from, and they come in about as many shapes and sizes as you could hope for.

Tier I: Jackson Rutledge, Alek Manoah, George Kirby
There's no debate that this is the first tier, as you would be hard pressed to find anyone listed here ranked below anyone listed in the next tier. Jackson Rutledge surpassed Carter Stewart as the top junior college arm available, and depending on who you ask, some (myself included) would say he's the best college right hander available period. Rutledge transferred from Arkansas to San Jacinto CC in Houston, and the results could not have possibly been any better for the 6'8" righty. The St. Louis native has bumped his fastball consistently into the mid 90's, topping out in the upper 90's with regularity and missing plenty of bats. It's not just the fastball, though, as he spins a curve and a slider to knock hitters off balance, both of which could be plus pitches. He needs to work on his changeup and command, as well as his overall consistency, but his upside is perhaps the highest among any pitcher in this draft. He should go in the top half of the first round. Alek Manoah has been downright incredible for West Virginia this year, posting a 1.85 ERA, an 0.88 WHIP, and a nasty 135/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.1 innings heading into the NCAA Tournament. Back in April, he had a three start stretch against Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Kansas in which he tossed 26 shutout innings on just ten hits, no walks, and 41 strikeouts; that'll get it done. The big-bodied 6'6" Florida native sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, and his slider has improved into a true strikeout pitch while his changeup has become a usable third pitch and his command has improved as well. Still, Manoah needs to further refine his secondary pitches and command if he wants to be an ace or #2 guy, and while he has much less reliever risk than he did a few months ago, he's not the complete package quite yet as a starter. Like Rutledge, he'll go in the top half of the first round. Lastly, George Kirby is a hair behind Rutledge and Manoah, but he's a great pitcher in his own right, having finished his junior season with a 2.75 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a 107/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 innings. He is actually the safest bet to remain a starter in this entire draft, combining a strong 6'3" frame with great command of a full arsenal. He throws in the low 90's but can reach back for more when he needs it, adding a good curveball and slider as well as a changeup. In today's game, where the three true outcomes (strikeouts, walks, home runs) are emphasized, Kirby is especially dominant, having struck out 107 while allowing just six walks and three home runs all season. He lacks the ceiling of Rutledge or Manoah but projects as a strong #3 starter with less risk than other arms, and he projects to go in the middle of the first round, perhaps in the 15-20 range just a few picks behind the other two.

Tier II: Seth Johnson, Matt Canterino, Isaiah Campbell, John Doxakis, Drey Jameson
There is a big drop off after Rutledge, Manoah, and Kirby, with the second tier all coming with their fair share of concerns and little probability that more than one will be a first rounder. Seth Johnson is the most likely of that crew to end up there, raising his stock astronomically in the last calendar year. At this time last year, he was a light hitting shortstop at Louisburg College in North Carolina, but the wicked fastball/slider combination he displayed in his transition to the mound gives him a high ceiling. He posted a 4.72 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a 77/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings against relatively weak competition in the Big South, but it was his first time pitching and he showed a low to mid 90's fastball as well as a good slider and a usable curveball and changeup. His command isn't pinpoint but he was able to find the strike zone consistently, and he should continue to improve in that respect down the road. With no track record to speak of, he's a risky pick, but he won't turn 21 until September and the 6'1" righty has a high ceiling if he can continue on his current trajectory. Over at Rice, Matt Canterino put up a second straight strong season by posting a 2.90 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 112/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 93 innings heading into the tournament. He's 6'2" with long arms and a bit of a funky delivery, but he repeats it well and throws plenty of strikes. Stuff-wise, he sits in the low 90's and adds a pair of very good breaking balls, though in pro ball he'll need to work on his changeup. He currently has mid-rotation starter projection but could be a #2 if he continues to command everything well, though the effort in his delivery could push him to the bullpen. He figures to go in the comp round or early second round. Isaiah Campbell could have gone in the top five rounds last year, but he was young for the class and stayed an extra year at Arkansas. After posting a 4.26 ERA in 2018, he dropped it to 2.50 in 2019 heading into the tournament with a 0.96 WHIP and a 97/15 strikeout to walk ratio in 90 innings. He still throws in the low to mid 90's from a high release point with a good slider, but what was fringy command last year has been tightened up to average this year. He adds a curveball and an interesting splitter, both of which need work, and the development of those pitches will likely be the difference as to whether he ends up a #3 starter or a power reliever. He'll probably be drafted in the same range as Canterino. John Doxakis has had an exceptional SEC career, and he capped it off with a 1.84 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 106/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.2 innings for Texas A&M this year. Doxakis is 6'4" but only throws around 90 with his fastball, instead relying on a good slider and better command to keep hitters off balance. He's got a little bit of effort in his delivery and while it doesn't impact his ability to spot his pitches, it creates some questions as to whether he can stick in the rotation long term. Still, he's built like a starter and has strong makeup, so he could add some velocity and end up a solid #3 or #4 starter long-term. He won't be 21 until August and he figures to go in the same range as Canterino and Campbell, but I like the other two just a bit better. Lastly, Ball State's Drey Jameson is one of the more interesting prospects in this draft, having posted a 3.24 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 146/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings against relatively weaker competition in the MAC. He's only six feet tall and skinny at that, but he sits in the mid 90's and holds that velocity consistently, adding a pair of very good breaking balls. Jameson's live arm could help teams dream on a Sixto Sanchez-type player (though Sanchez has better command and ironically is almost a year younger), though like Sanchez he faces durability concerns due to his slight frame. His ability to hold his fastball velocity does give him a strong shot to remain a starter, and he could go anywhere from the comp round to the end of the second round.

Tier III: Ryan Zeferjahn, Ryne Nelson, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Hess, Noah Song
Four of the five of these guys face serious reliever questions, and I find it unlikely that more than one of them aside from Song ends up a big league starter. Ryan Zeferjahn has perhaps the best shot after posting a 3.97 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 107/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.1 innings for Kansas, though he got blown up for nine runs in his last start against Kansas State in the Big 12 Tournament. Zeferjahn was a top three rounds prospect coming out of high school in Topeka and the scouting report is roughly the same now, as the 6'4" righty can sit in the mid 90's and add a very good slider, but his awkward mechanics impact his command and his consistency (he had tossed 7.1 shutout innings against the same Kansas State team a week earlier). Because of this, he probably only has a 50/50 shot at remaining in the rotation, though his fastball/slider combination could play up in the bullpen and be very effective. He should go in the second or third round. Ryne Nelson is more likely than not going to be a reliever, especially after a tough stretch late in the season. Nelson had a 4.29 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 104/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings for Oregon, showing premium mid to upper 90's velocity and a good slider from an athletic 6'4" frame. However, his poor command and lack of a reliable third pitch cause those first two to play down in the rotation, but in the bullpen he has the potential to hit 100 MPH. He just needs to clean up his command, and he'll probably be a third round pick. Ryan Pepiot had an up and down season for Butler, posting a 3.92 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 126/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings. This showed a little bit of regression from his strong 2018 (2.62 ERA, 101/32 K/BB), and he gets by with a four pitch mix headlined by a low 90's fastball and a very good changeup. His two breaking balls, combined with that changeup, helped him carve up Big East hitters, but they're a little bit too soft to be strikeout pitches against pro hitters. He also tends to lose his command of the strike zone from time to time, so a move to the bullpen might help him with his consistency and enable him to focus on either his curve or his slider instead of both, though pro coaching could make him a #4 starter. He looks like a third rounder. Zack Hess was eligible as a sophomore at LSU last year and his scouting report has not changed much, but he has been as inconsistent as anybody this year with a 4.70 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and a 78/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings. Hess is 6'6" and can sit in the mid to upper 90's as a reliever, but he's been used mostly as a starter, where his fastball is more low to mid 90's. He also has a very good slider that can be a true out pitch out of the bullpen, but his mediocre command and lack of a reliable third pitch kept him from succeeding in the LSU rotation. There is still some talk of running him out as a starter in pro ball, but it seems like that experiment has played its course and he should become a full time reliever, where his fastball/slider combination could make him a strong set-up man and help him get to the big leagues quickly. He should be a third round pick. Lastly, Noah Song has one of the most unique profiles in college baseball. The 6'4" senior put up video game numbers at Navy this season (11-1, 1.44 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 161/31 K/BB in 94 IP), but he's required by law to serve two years in the Navy before he can pitch professionally. On one hand, it's hard to pass on a guy who throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a good slider as part of a full arsenal which he commands somewhat well, but on the other, he might not get to pitch professionally until after his 24th birthday. A team willing to be patient with him could get a fringe-first round arm somewhere later in the draft, so where he ends up is completely up in the air.

Others: Ryan Garcia, Ryan Jensen, Alec Marsh, Tyler Baum, Hunter Brown

*Carter Stewart has signed with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks and will not be draft-eligible. He would have fit into Tier II.