2020 Draft Review: Cincinnati Reds

1-12: OF Austin Hendrick, West Allegheny HS (PA)
2-48: RHP Christian Roa, Texas A&M
CBB-65: C Jackson Miller, Mitchell HS (FL)
3-84: RHP Bryce Bonnin, Texas Tech
4-113: OF Mac Wainwright, St. Edward HS (OH)
5-143: RHP Joe Boyle, Notre Dame

The Reds had six picks and could afford to take some risks, so they went shooting for upside here with three high school hitters and three college arms, two of which are more known for their stuff than their command. They didn't pull off anything too funny, mostly picking up guys for around slot value, and so far they've signed five out of six. I didn't love any individual pick, but I liked a lot of them and I think they picked up a good class overall. It was also a fairly local draft, with three of the six growing up within 250 miles of Cincinnati in Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Louisville.
Full index of team reviews.

1-12: OF Austin Hendrick, West Allegheny HS, PA (my rank: 13)
The Pittsburgh area isn't the biggest hotbed of prep talent in the country, though every few years, it pops up with some impressive prospects – Neil Walker in 2009, Alex Kirilloff in 2016, and now Austin Hendrick in 2020. Hendrick has been a famous name on the prep circuit for a long time, up there with Pete Crow-Armstrong, Drew Romo, and Blaze Jordan as one of the high school hitters scouts had the longest history with. Though he's not the biggest guy in the world at a listed six feet tall, he possesses elite bat speed that produces tremendous raw power from the left side, turning on baseballs so quickly that if you blink, you miss it. His hands and bat are so quick that even his low effort warmup swings can drive the ball deep into the gaps pretty easily, and when he turns on one, he can obliterate it. The hit tool is a bit more uncertain. There are many who have questioned his consistency with it, worrying about his ability to wait back on and recognize offspeed pitches, and since he turned 19 in June, he's one of the older players in the prep class – a bit of a double whammy. Others, however, will argue that those concerns are really only popping up due to the intense microscope that comes with being considered in the top half of the first round, and give him at least an average hit tool if not slightly better. He has tapped his power consistently on the showcase circuit against quality arms and given that he's coming from the Northeast rather than somewhere like Florida or California, that's particularly impressive. The Reds clearly are buying into the power and believe that he will indeed make enough contact to tap it, and if he reaches his lofty ceiling, he could be a 30+ home run guy and send some baseballs into the Ohio River. The defense isn't as flashy, but he's a good athlete with a strong arm who can be above average in right field, which certainly helps his all-around profile. It cost $4 million to lure him away from a Mississippi State commitment, but the Reds still saved $370,000 under slot value. Pre-draft profile here.

2-48: RHP Christian Roa, Texas A&M (my rank: 83)
This is one pick I'm not sold on. I don't hate it or anything, as Roa is a very good pitcher, but I felt there were better options available at that point in the draft, though Roa does fit very well into this system. He reminds me a lot of Nationals first rounder Cade Cavalli, with slightly quieter stuff. A 6'4" righty, the Houston native has a low to mid 90's fastball that has reached as high as 96, though at times he's been down closer to 90. Roa adds a very good set of secondary pitches that all flash above average to plus, including a top to bottom curveball, a more lateral slider, and an advanced changeup. He throws strikes with all four of his pitches from a clean delivery, giving him the look of a big league starter. However, he's been much more good than great during his career at Texas A&M, going 5-3 with a 4.26 ERA and a 93/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.2 innings over the last three seasons. Evaluators think the lack of performance stems from a two-fold lack of deception in his delivery and control (ability to throw strikes) that is ahead of his command (ability to hit spots). So while he doesn't often hurt himself with walks, he does hurt himself when he leaves pitches over the plate. The Reds think he's just a tweak or two away from putting it all together, with plenty of starter's traits all over the place, and he could end up a #2 or #3 starter if he reaches his full potential. He got $1.54 million to sign, which is full slot value. Pre-draft profile here.

CBB-65: C Jackson Miller, Mitchell HS, FL (my rank: 77)
Most evaluators saw Jackson Miller on the fringes of the top 100 prospects this year (#104 on MLB Pipeline, #99 on Baseball America), but personally I thought he could have been a steal at that point in the draft, as evidenced by my ranking him 77th. The Reds had the same line of thinking that I did and pounced early, grabbing him at #65, and they could have a really valuable player here. Usually I'm not a huge fan of high school catchers, which meant I had Drew Romo near the back of the top 50 and pushed Daniel Susac and Corey Collins outside the top 100, but there's something about Miller I really like. The Tampa-area product has a really loose operation at the plate and some moderate projection in his 6' frame, and together I think it could lead to above average power down the line. There is some nice leverage in that left handed swing, and while he doesn't have the longest summer track record, he makes pretty consistent contact that will help him tap that power as he grows into it. Behind the plate, he's an average defender for now, but he shows the same ease of operation and looks like he could grow into an above average big league defender. High school catchers have a very, very spotty track record, which is why I don't typically like them, but Miller has such as well-rounded, projectable game that I give him as good a shot as any to buck the trend. At 65, it's definitely risky grabbing that high school catcher without loud tools, but I think this could pay off for them. Just finding a big league catcher that can hit at all is honestly a win these days. Committed to Wake Forest, he's the Reds' last unsigned pick and they have a little more than $1.3 million left in their bonus pool, enough to pay him about $275,000 above slot. Pre-draft profile here.

3-84: RHP Bryce Bonnin, Texas Tech (my rank: 118)
Bryce Bonnin has been famous the longest in this Reds class, as he figured prominently into top five rounds conversations coming out of Barbers Hill High School just east of Houston in 2017. Instead, he followed through on a commitment to Arkansas, but the Razorbacks saw him as a reliever so he transferred to Texas Tech, where he would have the chance to start. Results were mixed there, and while he did strike out 27 to just six walks in 2020, he also had a 7.36 ERA, and he'll likely have to live with being a reliever long term. Drafting him well inside the top 100 picks though, the Reds might have hope he can hold out as a starter. He runs his fastball up to 97, sitting in the low to mid 90's, and gets great angle on it from a wide, crossfire delivery, making it tough to pick up. He also throws a plus slider that dives across the plate with great horizontal movement, and that pitch too can get into the upper 80's at times. His delivery is pretty herky jerky and features very long arm action, but the arm itself is really loose and streamlining him a bit could really help his well below average command. With a decent curveball and changeup in tow, Bonnin has what it takes to be a starter if you squint hard enough. However, he looks like a reliever and the as-is product could play way up in the bullpen, where he could just pitch off that fastball/slider combination for an inning or two at a time and not worry so much about spotting his pitches. Bonnin signed for $700,000, which was $21,900 below slot.

4-113: OF Mac Wainwright, St. Edward HS (unranked)
Wainwright grew up in the Cleveland area and attended St. Edward High School in Lakewood, but we'll still call him a semi-hometown guy from across the state. Columbus tends to be the mediator between any Cleveland-Cincinnati rivalry, and Wainwright held an Ohio State commitment in hand, so I think that tips the scale. Either way, Wainwright already has big fans in the Reds' scouting department and front office, and he has a chance to be a star in Cinncinati. He's a 6'1" right handed hitter with a loose, clean swing that allows you to project a lot of added power down the line. Additionally, he's a good runner with a good arm, with the potential to be decent in center field or above average in a corner spot. Injuries kept him away from most of the showcase events, so he isn't much of a known commodity and went unranked on Baseball America's top 500 prospects list, but the Reds have scouted him for a long time in their backyard and they're comfortable with the product. Not set to turn 18 until August, he's very young for a high school senior (more than a year younger than Hendrick), and the Reds will have to be patient with his development. He probably won't move through the minors as quickly as Hendrick or Miller, but he has the natural talent and athleticism to break out in a few seasons. Overall, it's more of a long term, sleeper name to watch. Wainwright signed at slot value for $512,400 rather than head to Ohio State.

5-143: RHP Joe Boyle, Notre Dame (my rank: 102)
If big stuff excites you, then this is the pick for you. The Reds started the draft all the way up the Ohio River in Pittsburgh, and they finished down the river with Louisville-area native Joe Boyle, who attended high school just an hour and a half down I-71 from Cincinnati in Goshen, Kentucky. The Notre Dame closer brings absolutely massive stuff, sitting in the upper 90's with his fastball and touching as high as 102. With a 6'7" frame and a crossfire delivery, he hides the ball well and gets great extension, creating extremely uncomfortable at bats and making his velocity play up even further. He has a slider as well, which ranges anywhere from average to plus-plus, as it flattens out at times but an also touch 90 miles an hour with sharp, bat missing bite. With two potentially plus-plus pitches, it's really easy to envision him as a closer, but he'll have to improve his command significantly. He's walked 48 batters in 36 career innings for the Fighting Irish, and it was a similar story in the Cape Cod League where he walked 14 in 22 innings. He struggles to repeat his arm slot and hasn't seen much improvement, if any at all, in his command in college. The Reds will have their work cut out for them on that front, but the good news is he's young for the class with an August birthday and he's also known to be very analytically inclined and a hard worker. His $500,000 signing bonus was $117,300 above slot.

Undrafted: OF Jacob Hurtubise, Army (unranked)
Another semi-hometown player, Hurtubise grew up in the Indianapolis suburb of Zionsville before heading east to West Point for school. He gradually hit for more and more impact throughout his Army career and topped out with a fantastic junior season in 2019, where he slashed .375/.541/.445 with 45 stolen bases and a 26/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games. However, he pulled a hamstring in 2020 and we only got to see him for five games. He employs an extremely advanced approach at the plate that enables him to stay in control his own at bats even against advanced pitching, and from there he makes consistent line drive contact around the field. Hurtubise's plus speed enables him to turn leg out extra base hits and steal lots of bases (105 in his career) as well. He's been working to get bigger and stronger, though the overall projection is that of a fourth or fifth outfielder.

Undrafted: SS Gus Steiger, South Sakota State (unranked)
Steiger has been as steady as they come at South Dakota State, slashing .319/.367/.435 with seven home runs, 29 stolen bases, and a 92/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games over his career. He's a relatively aggressive hitter who doesn't walk much, but he makes plenty of hard contact to keep his strikeouts reasonably low. He'll never be a power hitter but there's some reasonable pop in there as well that should enable him to hit for some impact in pro ball. Overall, it's an average offensive profile, bu the selling point is his above average glove that will enable him to stick at shortstop long term. It buys his bat some slack and helps the Minneapolis-area native project as a utility infielder down the road.

2020 Draft Profile: Austin Hendrick

OF Austin Hendrick, West Allegheny HS [PA]
Full index of profiles here

DoB: 6/15/2001.  B/T: L/L
Commitment: Mississippi State

The Pittsburgh area isn't one of the country's premier baseball hotbeds, with its most notable recent products being Neil Walker, Ian Happ, and Alex Kirilloff. Now, they have a big name for the 2020 draft, as West Allegheny's Austin Hendrick may actually be an even better prospect than Kirilloff was in his 2016 draft year. A big performance over the summer made him easily the top high school bat in the country until Zac Veen's meteoric rise brought him into the same tier, and there are still a lot of scouts who would rank Hendrick ahead of Veen today.

Hendrick is a hitter, plain and simple. He has an explosive left handed swing that gives him some of the best raw power in the high school class, with a combination of strength and athleticism enabling him to whip the barrel around at high speeds. The hit tool isn't quite as refined, as there is some swing and miss in his game, but he's trending in the right direction there after a strong summer saw him make fairly consistent contact against high quality pitching. If that trend continues into pro ball and he can get to his huge raw power consistently, then his upside is as high as any hitter in this class. Defensively, he's actually pretty solid compared to a lot of other guys with his profile, as he can be a positive presence in right field with a strong arm, some sneaky speed, and enough range to make all the plays you need him to make.

The swing types are a bit different, but Hendrick reminds me a bit of now-Cardinals prospect Nolan Gorman as a hitter. Gorman was another left handed high school bat with explosive raw power and questions about his hit tool, but so far in pro ball, that hasn't been an issue yet as he mashed in A ball this year. Now, one negative in Hendrick's profile that wasn't present in Gorman's is age, as Hendrick is eleven months older relative to his class. His June birthday means he'll turn 19 a couple of days after the draft was originally scheduled to happen, presumably giving him extra development time already under his belt as compared to his peers. That said, the bat is so potent right now that the age can be more of an afterthought, and we heard very little about Bobby Witt Jr.'s June birthday last year before he went second overall to the Royals.

The stoppage in play might actually work a little bit to Hendrick's benefit. While guys like Zac Veen, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Robert Hassell were set to face stronger competition in the Daytona Beach, Los Angeles, and Nashville areas, respectively, Hendrick's weaker competition in Pittsburgh really wasn't going to give him a chance to prove much that he hadn't already proven on the summer showcase circuit. That wouldn't necessarily hurt him, but he would have had less of a chance to round out his profile and cement himself than some other guys would have. Now, everybody's stock is more or less frozen. That puts Hendrick as a first round lock, one with a very good shot to go in the top half of the round and potentially even in the top ten picks as arguably the top high school hitter in the country. His ceiling has him at 30-40 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages and defense, and a more middle ground projection of 25-30 home runs and decent on-base percentages still makes him a real asset in the lineup. He's committed to Mississippi State and he'll be eligible again as a sophomore due to his early birthday, though he figures to go high enough in the first round that that won't be an issue.

Summer batting practice and fielding
Summer game action