Despite the Braves' 2017 bonus trimming scandal as well as trades for guys like Kevin Gausman, Shane Greene, and Mark Melancon, they retain one of the strongest systems in the majors on the backs of their excellent pitching and outfield depth. On the mound, there's a whole slew of big league ready arms in Kyle Wright, Ian Anderson, Bryce Wilson, Tucker Davidson, and co., and their group of young outfielders might be the best in the game – defensive wizard Cristian Pache and the all-around Drew Waters are ready to join Ronald Acuna in arguably the most exciting young outfield in the game, while guys like Greyson Jenista, Trey Harris, Justin Dean, and Michael Harris provide a nice second wave a bit lower down. They also have a pair of nice catchers in Shea Langeliers and William Contreras, but the one place this system seems a bit shallower is in the infield, where Braden Shewmake looks like the only legitimate impact prospect. Now, the repercussions from that 2017 scandal can be seen a bit in the lower minors, where the Braves are a bit shallower than in the upper minors, but there's so much talent closer to the big leagues that that isn't really a problem yet.
Affiliates: AAA Gwinnett Stripers, AA Mississippi Braves, High A Florida Fire Frogs, Class A Rome Braves, rookie level Danville Braves, complex level GCL and DSL Braves
Catcher
- Alex Jackson (2020 Age: 24): The sixth overall pick of the 2014 draft out of high school in the San Diego area, Jackson came over from the Mariners in the Max Povse/Rob Whalen deal of 2016 and in 2019 he hit .229/.313/.533 with 28 home runs and a 118/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 games at AAA Gwinnett and was hitless in 13 major league at bats. Jackson has a ton of power, but not much else. He struggles with contact and strikes out a lot, and he's just barely passable behind the plate. Based on the power alone, he should be the first man up if either Travis d'Arnaud or Tyler Flowers gets hurt, though he'll never be a full time starter behind the plate – if he somehow taps his power enough to warrant a starting role, he'll probably be moved to the outfield.
- William Contreras (2020 Age: 22): The younger brother of Cubs catcher Willson Contreras, William has a shot to be the Braves' catcher of the future and he slashed .255/.315/.354 with six home runs and an 84/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at High A Florida and AA Mississippi in 2019. That was a small step back from his 2018 numbers (.285/.347/.436, 11 HR), but he was also a 21 year old catcher reaching the upper minors, so there's a lot of slack to give. He puts the bat on the ball really easily, which gives him a high floor, and he's developed some power as he's matured. A sound defender behind the plate, it's currently more of a backup profile than that of a true starter, but he's young enough and a competent enough hitter that he could conceivably tap a little more power and change that.
- Shea Langeliers (2020 Age: 22): Contreras will have to earn that starting spot, because coming up right behind him is Shea Langeliers, who was the ninth overall pick out of Baylor in 2019. Aggressively pushed to Class A Rome in his debut, he slashed .255/.310/.343 with a pair of home runs and a 55/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games, though he was hitting better towards the end of the season as he gained his footing. Langeliers has some power in his right handed swing, and with solid average plate discipline, he projects as an average hitter overall. That's okay, because the Braves drafted him for his glove. It's just about impossible to run on Langeliers and his cannon arm, and he adds exceptional receiving skills behind the plate too, giving him Gold Glove potential back there. So if he hits at all, that will be enough. Langeliers is also a big time asset because this organization loves to draft and develop young pitching, and having a guy like Langeliers to work with those kids could be huge.
- Keep an eye on: Logan Brown
Corner Infield
- Bryce Ball (2020 Age: 21-22): If there's one place where this system isn't deep, it's in the corner infield, but that's the place where you're the most okay with not having a ton of prospects. Last year, the Braves picked up third baseman CJ Alexander in the 20th round and he hit .352/.429/.495 in his pro debut before dropping to .117/.245/.180 this year (yikes), but Bryce Ball finds himself in a very similar spot to where Alexander was a year ago. The Braves took Ball in the 24th round out of Dallas Baptist in 2019, and he went on to absolutely obliterate opposing pitchers in his pro debut by slashing .329/.395/.628 with 17 home runs and a 50/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games at rookie level Danville and Class A Rome. At a hulking 6'6" and 235 pounds, Ball is limited to first base, but with the way he hit in his pro debut, that might not be a problem. He has tremendous raw power to all fields, and he got to it consistently both in the Appalachian League and in the more advanced South Atlantic League, though higher level pitching began to expose his approach just a little bit. I'm really interested to see what he does in his first full season in 2020, where he won't turn 22 until July since he was young for his class, and he could make himself a legitimate power prospect in a hurry.
- Keep an eye on: CJ Alexander
Middle Infield
- Wendell Rijo (2020 Age: 24): For someone who is set to play all of 2020 at just 24 years old, Rijo has been around the block and then some. He originally signed with the Red Sox out of the Dominican Republic for $625,000 in 2012, then was traded to Milwaukee for Aaron Hill in 2016. In 2018, it was on to the Yankees, and in 2019, the Braves picked him up in the AAA phase of the Rule 5 Draft, which only forces him to stick on the AAA roster, not the major league one. This past season, he slashed .258/.325/.438 with 13 home runs and an 89/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 games between High A, AA, and AAA, showing an all-around, ready-now, utility infield profile. He doesn't have much power but is adept enough at making regular, hard contact to hit for decent averages in the majors. He makes up for a weaker arm with good defense in the infield, and while second base is his most natural position, he can handle shortstop or third base if needed. The Braves aren't too deep in the infield at the major league level, so he has a good shot to hit his way into a utility role at some point in 2020.
- Braden Shewmake (2020 Age: 22): The Braves took Shewmake in the first round out of Texas A&M in 2019, and he rewarded them by slashing .300/.371/.425 with three home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 40/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games at Class A Rome and AA Mississippi. The Braves drafted Shewmake for his advanced bat, and he didn't disappoint by handling the strike zone extremely well and finding the barrel consistently in that pro debut. He's a lanky 6'4", but it remains to be seen whether he taps any power. He's a solid enough defender, performing adequately at shortstop, though he'll likely move over to second base in the future. That's a utility infield projection at worst, though it may be tough for him to break into that middle infield between Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies as a starter. He could end up sliding to third base, where the Braves don't have a clear long term answer, though his bat might be just a bit stretched there. The overall offensive projection is probably 5-15 home runs annually, depending on how much power he taps, with high on-base percentages and a few stolen bases.
- Beau Philip (2020 Age: 21): Philip, a second round pick out of Oregon State in 2019, is more of an upside play than a safe bet, especially for a day one college draftee. A community college transfer who missed some time in the spring with hamstring problems, we only got to see him for 44 games at the Division I level and he struggled in his pro debut, slashing .193/.297/.280 with four home runs and a 51/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games at rookie level Danville. Fortunately, he was very young for a college draftee and will play all of 2020 at 21 years old, giving him additional time to tap into his considerable talent. He packs a little bit of power into his 6' frame and was consistently finding the gaps in college, though it looks like he'll need to refine his approach a bit to continue to do so in pro ball. He's a competent defender that should be able to handle shortstop and he has a utility infield profile if it all clicks, but he does have the potential to surprise us and become more.
- Keep an eye on: Riley Unroe, Riley Delgado, AJ Graffanino, Greg Cullen, Vaughn Grissom
Outfield
- Cristian Pache (2020 Age: 21): Pache has always been a truly elite defender, but the book on him used to be "if he can hit at all, he'll be a valuable player." Formerly a light hitting teenager who went homerless in his first two pro seasons, he began to "hit at all" in 2018 when he slashed .279/.307/.410 in High A and AA, and he continued that over to 2019 when he slashed .277/.340/.462 with 12 home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 122/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at AA Mississippi and AAA Gwinnett. With Pache, everything begins with his defense. Between his speed, arm, and instincts, I don't think it gets much better, and I don't think Braves fans have seen anything like it since Andruw Jones. At the plate, he has plenty of wiry strength but he used to be a gap hitter – now, he's learning to drive the ball more and in addition to his 12 home runs in 2019, he hit 36 doubles and nine triples. Set to play all of 2020 at just 21 years old, a couple weeks younger than Juan Soto, he could conceivably turn some of those doubles and triples into home runs as he continues to grow, and while he projects for about 10-15 home runs a season for now, he could bump that number up to 15-20. Pache also controls the zone well enough to post decent on-base percentages, and he'll probably push Ender Inciarte out of the center field spot at some point in 2020.
- Drew Waters (2020 Age: 21): I've been a big fan of Waters as a prospect ever since he was at Etowah High School in Woodstock, and his hometown Braves picked him up in the second round in 2017. He's hit everywhere he's gone while the Braves have pushed him aggressively, and in 2019 he slashed .309/.360/.459 with seven home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 164/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 134 games at AA Mississippi and AAA Gwinnett. To me, it's a really interesting profile with a lot to pick apart. The switch hitter is a free swinger with an explosive swing from both sides of the plate, and while that has led to ugly K/BB numbers, he's also been very young for the levels he's played and and he'll spend all of 2020 at 21 years old. It also hasn't inhibited his ability to make consistent hard contact, as he's hit 79 doubles and 18 triples over the past two seasons – that is a LOT. A line drive-oriented approach has kept him from tapping into his home run power in games, with just 20 home runs in 298 career minor league games, though I think he'll begin to tap it as his plate discipline catches up with his feel for the barrel, and he could hit 15-20 a year. Waters is also a gifted defender who has the ability to stick in center field and be an asset, but with Mr. Pache already polishing his Gold Gloves in his mind, Waters will probably end up at a corner, and most likely unseating Nick Markakis at some point in 2020. Get excited for that Acuna-Pache-Waters outfield, it's going to be fun.
- Greyson Jenista (2020 Age: 23): Jenista was a second round pick out of Wichita State in 2018, and in 2019 he slashed .233/.318/.349 with nine home runs and a 145/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at High A Florida and AA Mississippi. It was a bit of a disappointing season after a strong pro debut in 2018, and with the aforementioned Acuna-Pache-Waters outfield of the future in Atlanta, it's hard to see him finding a starting spot. That said, Jenista is a very competent hitter with a patient approach and a track record of hitting, though he's had a difficult time tapping the considerable raw power in his 6'3" frame and explosive swing. Perhaps allowing him to repeat AA in his age-23 season in 2020 could help him get back on his feet as a hitter, and if it all clicks he could be one of the better fourth outfielders in the game as an all-around contributor.
- Trey Harris (2020 Age: 24): Drew Waters isn't the only Atlanta native trying to work his way into the Braves outfield. Harris graduated from McEachern High School in Powder Springs before attending Missouri, where he had an unremarkable career and ended up an unheralded 32nd round pick in 2018. However, he's opened a lot of eyes with an excellent first full season in 2019, where he slashed .323/.389/.498 with 14 home runs and a 91/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at Class A Rome, High A Florida, and AA Mississippi. Always one of the shortest guys on the field at 5'8", Harris packs a lot of strength into his stocky frame and uses an explosive swing to generate good power, and his great feel for the barrel enables it to play above average in games. While he doesn't walk a whole lot, he avoids strikeouts very well for a 5'8" kid swinging for the fences, giving him the opportunity to continue producing as he works through the upper minors and eventually into the majors. An average defender, he's like Jenista in that he'll have a tough time breaking into the starting three in that outfield, but he's also put himself in a great position to counter Jenista's left handed bat with his right handed bat as a bench option down the line.
- Justin Dean (2020 Age: 23): Dean is a semi-hometown player who grew up in Mauldin, which is in the Greenville, South Carolina area, and the Braves drafted him in the 17th round out of Lenoir-Rhyne University in North Carolina in 2018. He's rewarded them so far, and in 2019 he slashed .284/.386/.431 with nine home runs, 47 stolen bases, and a 115/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at Class A Rome. The one guy on the field smaller than Trey Harris, Dean stands just 5'6", but he plays a lot bigger. His elite speed is his best attribute, but his patient approach at the plate and natural feel for finding the barrel enable him to utilize it often. He's unlikely to ever be a full time starter in Atlanta, but his combination of speed and gap power make him a really intriguing option as a fourth outfielder down the line. In order to get there, he'll have to cut down on his swing and miss a bit.
- Michael Harris (2020 Age: 19): Make that three young outfielders from the ATL trying to work their way into the Braves outfield – Harris, of no relation to Trey, attended Stockbridge High School in the southern suburbs and was drafted in the third round in 2019. Considered a bit of a project at the time he was drafted, he tore through the complex level Gulf Coast League in his pro debut and slashed .349/.403/.514 with a pair of home runs, five stolen bases, and a 20/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 31 games. That was enough to skip over rookie level Danville entirely and head straight to Class A Rome, where he slumped a bit with a .183/.269/.232 line, three stolen bases, and a 22/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 22 games. Even with the tough run through Class A, it's a very successful debut for a kid who was supposed to take some time to adjust, and because he'll only turn 19 in spring training, he comes with really high upside. Harris is more of a slap hitter for now, but there's enough strength in his 6' frame and quickness in his left handed swing (it looks like the Braves have had him give up switch hitting) to project some power down the road. Combined with his speed and defense, he's a sleeper to become a real contributor in Atlanta, though there's a ton of outfield depth in this system and he has a lot of guys to overtake in the depth chart.
- Keep an eye on: Tyler Nelsony, Jefrey Ramos, Stephen Paolini
Starting Pitching
- Kyle Wright (2020 Age: 24): It feels weird to say someone is "somehow still a prospect" when he was only drafted in 2017, but it feels that way for Wright, the fifth overall pick out of Vanderbilt that year. Somewhat of a hometown guy having grown up just north of Huntsville, Alabama, Wright raced through the minors and reached the majors in 2018, though he spent most of 2019 at AAA Gwinnett and posted a 4.17 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 116/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 112.1 innings. Between two major league stints, he has a 7.71 ERA, a 1.83 WHIP, and a 23/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.2 innings, and the Braves are obviously still patiently waiting for him to break through. Wright is incredibly talented, sitting in the mid 90's with his fastball and adding two distinct, swing and miss breaking balls in a curve and a slider, as well as a changeup that has taken a step forward in pro ball and become a weapon. At this point his control (throwing strikes) is ahead of his command (locating his pitches within the zone), which has caused him to get hit much harder in the majors than his stuff dictates he should. He's still young, set to play all of 2020 at 24 years old, but Wright has not made that last jump to truly executing the nuances of the game that separates the good from the great pitchers. We'll try again in 2020 – I'd project the 6'4" righty more as a #3 starter than an ace at this point, but really any outcome is still possible.
- Bryse Wilson (2020 Age: 22): Another southerner, Wilson grew up in Hillsborough near Durham, North Carolina, and like Wright he remains rookie eligible despite reaching the majors in 2018. In 2019, he posted a 3.42 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 118/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 innings at AAA Gwinnett, and between his two short stints in the majors, he has a 7.00 ERA and a 22/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings. Standing a stocky 6'1", Wilson is a power arm that tosses a low to mid 90's fastball while adding a tight slider and a changeup, all of which he can command decently well. He hasn't been quite consistent enough with that breaking ball or his command to stick in the majors just yet, but a few minor adjustments will help the 22 year old get to where he needs to be. Ultimately, he lacks the ceiling of some of the other arms in this system, but he profiles well as a #4 or #5 guy who can eat innings effectively.
- Ian Anderson (2020 Age: 21-22): Anderson was the third overall pick in 2016 out of high school in the Albany, New York area, and he's pitched extremely effectively while he's climbed the minors more slowly than most Braves arms, whom they tend to push aggressively. In 2019, Anderson posted a 3.38 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 172/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 135.2 innings at AA Mississippi and AAA Gwinnett, though he was much more effective at the lower level (2.68 ERA, 147/47 K/BB) than at the higher one (6.57, 25/18). The 6'3" righty has seen Wright and Wilson struggle to stick in the majors to this point, and both he and the Braves are hoping that isn't the case this time. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and flashes a plus curveball with hard, downward break, though it can soften up at times. He also throws a good changeup that gives him a third weapon, and while his command can waver, it didn't prove to be an issue at all until he reached AAA in 2019. I'm pretty confident in his stuff, so the key to avoiding the bumpy starts experienced by Wright and Wilson will be his command and whether he can hit his spots enough to keep the ball off major league barrels. Regardless, he's very young and won't turn 22 until May, so even if it takes him a year or two to figure it out, he finds himself in a great position to become a future #2 or #3 starter.
- Tucker Davidson (2020 Age: 24): The Braves picked up Davidson in the 19th round in 2016 out of the West Texas junior college ranks, and that's turned out to be an extremely savvy move. Davidson broke out in 2019 with a 2.15 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 134/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 129.2 innings at AA Mississippi and AAA Gwinnett, as his secondary stuff has gotten more consistent. The 6'2" lefty gets good angle on his low to mid 90's fastball, and his curveball has started to bite more while his changeup looks like an average pitch. The command is slowly ticking in the right direction as well, looking average at this point, and together it's painting a back-end starter picture in the near future. There are a few names ahead of him for the open 2020 rotation spots, but a strong spring and continued strong performance in AAA to start the season could get him some looks this year.
- Kyle Muller (2020 Age: 22): Muller was the Braves' second round pick out of a Dallas high school in 2016, one round after Anderson, and he looks like he's starting to figure it out. The 6'6" lefty put up a 3.14 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 120/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.2 innings at AA Mississippi in 2019, coming in with a lot of similarities to Anderson. A bit taller and broader, Muller also has a low to mid 90's fastball, though his curve and changeup are a bit lighter than Anderson's. He does get good downer action on that curveball, but it doesn't flash plus as often as Anderson's, and his command is a bit shakier. Given those command problems, he'll probably join Wilson as a #4 or #5 starter in the long run, though he does have the stuff to be more of a #3 if he can lock down the strike zone a bit better. Given the starting pitching depth in this system, there's also a non-zero chance he ends up as a power fastball/curveball lefty reliever in the long run.
- Jasseel De La Cruz (2020 Age: 22-23): Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic back in 2015, De La Cruz has always had upside but he finally began to make real progress towards it in 2019, when he had a 3.25 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 121/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 innings at Class A Rome, High A Florida, and AA Mississippi. The 6'1" righty has a low to mid 90's fastball that can seem to get on hitters quicker than that, and he's gotten more consistent with his slider, changeup, and command in 2019. That said, given the depth of starting pitching in this system, the overall package remains just a bit light for De La Cruz to have more than a 50/50 shot at starting at this point, so further refinement overall is still needed. The good news is that he certainly took a step in the right direction in 2019 as he found his arm slot and release point more consistently, and he's young enough that he could still make the necessary adjustments to become a useful starter.
- Freddy Tarnok (2020 Age: 21): Tarnok was a high risk, high upside third round pick out of a Tampa-area high school in 2017, and he's shown mixed results in pro ball while maintaining that high ceiling. In 2019, he put up a 4.75 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 91/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 106 innings between High A Florida and some complex level rehab work, which isn't too shabby for a kid who's only been pitching for a couple of years. The Braves love Tarnok's loose athleticism and projectable 6'3" frame, and he now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball while adding a nice curve with some depth as well as a changeup. Tarnok needs to sharpen those offspeed pitches a bit further, and his command remains fringe-average, so further refinement is certainly needed. He's still young, set to play all of 2020 at 21 years old, and he's on enough of an upward trajectory that the Braves are confident he'll be able to make those adjustments. He still comes with the same risk/reward profile he had as a high schooler, but he's further along down the line and has significant development under his belt at this point.
- Ricky DeVito (2020 Age: 21): DeVito was up and down during his time at Seton Hall, and the Braves pounced in the eighth round in 2019 to see if they can straighten him out. In his pro debut, DeVito posted a 3.44 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 35/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 36.2 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League and at rookie level Danville and Class A Rome. At his best, he throws a low to mid 90's fastball, a good curveball, and a solid changeup with average command, giving him the upside of a #3 or #4 starter. However, frequently in 2019, he threw closer to 90 and his secondary stuff flattened out a bit while his command wavered. Mechanical inconsistency was likely a major factor, and the Braves, who are no strangers to developing young pitching, will look to get that ironed out first. DeVito was young for a college junior and won't turn 22 until the end of the 2020 season, giving the Braves a little extra time to tinker with him, but ultimately there's reliever risk here if he doesn't get significantly more consistent with his stuff.
- Jose Olague (2020 Age: 21): Here is a deep sleeper for you. Olague was an under the radar signing out of Mexico in 2017, and he pitched well in the Dominican Summer League in 2018 before skipping straight over the Gulf Coast League as well as the Appalachian League. Heading straight to Class A Rome in 2019, Olague responded well with a 4.02 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 68/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 innings. That scouting report says it all, as Olague is an extreme pitch to contact type of pitcher who gets his outs by generating weak contact on pitchers' pitches. He sits around 90 with his fastball and adds a couple breaking balls, but he places them right where he wants them and is adept at avoiding barrels. He'll have a really small margin for error going forward, but it will be interesting to see if he can add any velocity or sharpen any of his secondary stuff and emerge as a legitimate starting pitching candidate.
- Keep an eye on: Nolan Kingham, Hayden Deal, Odalvi Javier, Alan Rangel
Relief Pitching
- Huascar Ynoa (2020 Age: 21-22): Originally a Twins prospect, Ynoa came over in the Jaime Garcia deal in 2017 and finally reached the bigs in 2019. Overall, he had a 5.09 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 110/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.1 innings between High A Florida, AA Mississippi, and AAA Gwinnett, though his two big league outings included a strong performance against the Twins and a nightmare one in Milwaukee. Developed as a starter to this point, his future is most likely in the bullpen, where he can hope for a velocity bump and more consistent secondaries. Ynoa already sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, which seems to jump out of his hand, and he has some nice finish on his slider and changeup. The command has wavered significantly, so the hope is that will matter less if he moves to the bullpen and dials his fastball consistently into the mid 90's and sharpens his slider a bit. A successful transition could make him an important part of the Atlanta bullpen in 2020.
- Patrick Weigel (2020 Age: 25-26): It's been a long time coming for Weigel, who was a seventh round pick out of Houston in 2014, but he's finally knocking on the door to the majors. In 2019, returning from Tommy John surgery, he posted a 2.73 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 71/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 innings at AA Mississippi and AAA Gwinnett, splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen. He'll probably fit better in the latter going forward, where his low to mid 90's fastball sees a nice bump towards the mid to upper 90's and he can focus on one of his two decent breaking balls. At 6'6' and 240 pounds, his imposing presence will also work well in that role, and he could be a multi-inning weapon in the near future, though likely not a closer.
- Daysbel Hernandez (2020 Age: 23): Hernandez stands at a stocky 5'10", but that doesn't stop him from overpowering hitters. In 2019, the Cuban defector posted a 1.71 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 70/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.2 innings at High A Florida, mostly on the strength of a hard running, mid to upper 90's fastball. That alone was too much for Florida State League hitters to handle in 2019, but the key going forward will be further refining his hard slider that stands out more for its upper 80's velocity than its actual movement. He also shows a solid changeup, but he doesn't use it much in games. His command is also improving, and in the end he profiles as a middle reliever with set-up upside.
- Kasey Kalich (2020 Age: 22): The Braves picked Kalich up out of Texas A&M in the fourth round in 2019, three rounds after his teammate Braden Shewmake, and he had a strong pro debut with a 1.25 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 24/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.2 innings, mostly at Class A Rome. The 6'3" righty should move quickly on the back of his mid 90's fastball and improving slider. He's got the velocity, so sharpening that slider just a bit more while continuing to remain around the zone will be the keys to fulfilling that quick-mover projection. If it all goes right, he could be up in the bigs by 2021 as a potential set-up man.
- Keep an eye on: Thomas Burrows, Kurt Hoekstra, Troy Bacon, Trey Riley, Ryan Shetter, Victor Vodnik, Tyler Owens
Showing posts with label Braden Shewmake. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Braden Shewmake. Show all posts
Monday, January 20, 2020
Thursday, July 18, 2019
2019 Draft Review: Atlanta Braves
First five rounds: Shea Langeliers (1-9), Braden Shewmake (1-21), Beau Philip (2-60), Michael Harris (3-98), Kasey Kalich (4-127), Stephen Paolini (5-157)
Also notable: Ricky DeVito (8-247), Tyler Owens (13-397), Joey Estes (16-487)
After failing to sign first rounder Carter Stewart in 2018, the Braves got the ninth overall pick this year in addition to their regular first round pick at #21, and they used them on two of the best college position players in Texas in Baylor's Shea Langeliers and Texas A&M's Braden Shewmake. They also signed several underslot deals early on, saving about $1.5 million between Langeliers and second rounder Beau Philip, and they spread that extra money around on several hard to sign high schoolers on Day Three. In fact, with $125,000 as the de facto slot value in rounds 11-40, the Braves signed four different players to bonuses above $250,000 in those rounds and a fifth at at just a hair under $200,000. They love to draft and develop young pitching, and it has worked out for them with guys like Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, Ian Anderson, Kyle Muller, Joey Wentz, and Bryse Wilson coming through the pipeline, so guys like Tyler Owens and Joey Estes will hope to join that group down the line. It's a high risk draft given all the high schoolers, but they hope that those early picks will mitigate some of that.
1-9: C Shea Langeliers (Baylor, my rank: 11)
Adley Rutschman was the clear best catcher (and near-consensus best player) in this year's draft as someone who was exceptional on both sides of the ball, but Shea Langeliers might actually be the better defender. The Dallas-Fort Worth area native has an absolute cannon behind the plate, and his exceptional defensive actions behind the plate make him a safe bet to not only stick as a catcher but provide serious positive value back there. Given how the Braves love to draft and develop young pitching, having Langeliers there to work with those kids will be an added bonus. However, his bat isn't as sure of a thing as his glove, especially as a top ten pick here. He had a big freshman season at Baylor and slashed .313/.388/.540, but that line dropped to .252/.351/.496 as a sophomore and a broken hand early in his junior season this year clouded his draft status. He bounced back very nicely and finished the year with a .308/.374/.530 line, ten home runs, and a 29/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games, including an incredible showing against Nebraska-Omaha in the NCAA regional in Los Angeles where he picked up five hits, including a single, a double, and three home runs, in six at bats. Overall, his 14% strikeout rate was fairly low, though so was his 8.7% walk rate, and his numbers across the board were more good than great. He has some power but may need some minor mechanical changes to tap into it more, though with average plate discipline and feel for the barrel, he ultimately projects for 15-20 home runs annually with middling on-base percentages if his bat develops as expected. His glove, though, will take a ton of pressure off that bat. He signed for $4 million, which was $950,000 below slot, and he's slashing .203/.294/.324 with a home run and a 19/9 strikeout to walk ratio through 19 games at Class A Rome.
1-21: SS Braden Shewmake (Texas A&M, my rank: 40)
I remain a bit skeptical of this pick, but not as much as I was a month ago due to Braden Shewmake's hot start in the Class A South Atlantic League. Shewmake gives the Braves a second straight Texas college position player, as well as a second straight kid from DFW; Langeliers grew up in Keller on the Fort Worth side, while Shewmake comes from Wylie on the Dallas side. Oh, and they were born one day apart in November of 1997 in the same DFW metroplex. Anyways, Shewmake has been a consistent performer all three seasons down at Texas A&M, and he capped it off by slashing .313/.374/.474 with six home runs and a 27/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games this season. He finds the barrel extremely easily, as evidenced by just a 9.6% strikeout rate against tough competition this season, tending to spray line drives around the field with occasional over the fence pop. At 6'4", he's still projectable and could add additional power, but too often this season I felt that he lacked the ability to truly impact the ball consistently, especially given his size. I think the key to success for Shewmake as a first round pick will be developing that power, because otherwise he projects as a utility infielder with solid on-base percentages. He's also not a lock to stay at shortstop, as he's not the steadiest defender and may have to move to second or third base. His makeup and leadership are reportedly plusses, so that should help him maximize his ability. Shewmake signed at slot for $3.13 million, and he's off to a torrid .358/.404/.509 start with a home run and an 18/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games with Langeliers at Rome.
2-60: SS Beau Philip (Oregon State, unranked)
At 60th overall, Beau Philip was actually the first player drafted that I did not have ranked on my pre-draft list. The Sacramento-area native transferred from San Joaquin Delta College to Oregon State this season, then slashed .311/.369/.486 with five home runs and a 36/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games for the Beavers. Philip is an athletic kid with some solid raw tools, though with only 44 Division I games under his belt, he doesn't quite have the track record that some would like to see. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, but he's good at driving the ball into the gaps and he has enough speed to make things happen on the bases. That also helps him out defensively, where he has a strong arm and should be either a solid shortstop or a very good defensive third baseman. Overall, he hasn't really put it all together, but with his talent and age (he doesn't turn 21 until October, making him extremely young for the class), the Braves hope that pro refinement can make him a competent utility infielder or even a fringe starter who could hit for solid on-base percentages and ten or so home runs per season with positive defensive value. He signed for $697,500, which was $462,500 below slot, and he's slashing .123/.247/.233 with two home runs, three stolen bases, and a 20/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 games at rookie level Danville.
3-98: OF Michael Harris (Stockbridge HS [GA], unranked)
After three straight college picks from major programs, the Braves turned back to their own back yard to grab high schooler Michael Harris out of Stockbridge High School on the south side of the Atlanta suburbs. Jeff Francoeur (Parkview HS, 2002), Brian McCann (Duluth HS, 2002), and Jason Heyward (Henry County HS, 2007) were all early draft picks as high schoolers from the Atlanta area that went on to star for the Braves, and Drew Waters (Etowah HS, 2017) is on the way as well while Lucas Sims (Brookwood HS, 2012) didn't quite work out. Harris was actually a two-way player in high school, but the Braves are betting on his offensive upside and will stick him in center field. Offensively, he's a switch hitter whose swing is a bit quicker from the right side than the left, but he has some power in his quick hands. He's going to need mechanical refinements in both of his swings, as he lacks much extension at this point and also has his fair share of swing and miss. He'll be a project, but he has high upside as a potential power/speed guy who can play a good center field. Committed to Texas Tech, he instead signed for $547,500, which was $43,600 below slot, and he's slashing .383/.453/.468 with a pair of stolen bases and a 12/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 13 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League.
4-127: RHP Kasey Kalich (Texas A&M, unranked)
Going back to College Station, the Braves took Shewmake's teammate Kasey Kalich in the fourth round. The South Texas native from Victoria began his collegiate career at Blinn College but transferred down the road to A&M for his sophomore season this year, where he posted a 3.18 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 51/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 innings out of the bullpen. Though he's a sophomore, he turned 21 in April and was draft-eligible this year, and he uses his mid 90's fastball and solid slider to generate a ton of swings and misses. He'll have to refine that slider a bit in pro ball to get more bite on it, but his loose arm and present velocity give the Braves something to work with and gives him the upside of a solid set-up man. The command isn't pinpoint, but it shouldn't be an issue going forward. He signed for $347,500, which was $99,900 below slot, and he has a 1.69 ERA, a 1.88 WHIP, and an 8/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 5.1 innings between the Gulf Coast League and Rome so far.
5-157: OF Stephen Paolini (St. Joseph's HS [CT], unranked)
Stephen Paolini, a high schooler in Trumbull, Connecticut, was little-known on draft day and there isn't much information available on him anywhere. He's a 6'2" outfielder with some leverage in his left handed swing, though he'll need mechanical refinements to help him get to his power more consistently. Matt Powers over at Talking Chop wrote that Paolini "is a plus runner who should hit for some power." Together, it looks like the Braves are hoping that pro coaching can help him grow into a power/speed threat who can play center field, not too unlike third rounder Michael Harris. Committed to Elon, he signed for $597,500, which was $264,200 above slot, and he's slashing .159/.283/.159 with a 13/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 11 games in the Gulf Coast League.
8-247: RHP Ricky DeVito (Seton Hall, my rank: 130)
Ricky DeVito was dominant as a sophomore at Seton Hall in 2018, posting a 1.88 ERA and a 67/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 starts, then he went on to put up a 2.45 ERA and a 35/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.1 innings in the elite Cape Cod League that summer. He entered 2019 with a chance to push himself into the first round conversation with a good spring, but DeVito ultimately took a step back as a junior this year. The Staten Island native put up a 3.92 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 68/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.1 innings, looking great some days but getting hit hard on others. DeVito used a low to mid 90's fastball and a good curveball and changeup for his big 2018, but his velocity was down a tick in 2019 and his command took a step back as he struggled to keep his mechanics together consistently. From the Braves' perspective, getting him back to being consistent with those mechanics should help his stuff tick back up in pro ball, where he could be a #4 starter, and not turning 21 until August gives him a bit of extra time. However, he's trending in the wrong direction as it stands and he carries reliever risk if he can't figure out his command. DeVito signed for $167,500, which was $1,400 above slot, and he has a 5.79 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 13/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 9.1 innings between the Gulf Coast League and Danville.
13-397: RHP Tyler Owens (Trinity Catholic HS [FL], unranked)
Tyler Owens is a high schooler from Ocala, Florida, who brings premium velocity from a short stature. Despite standing only 5'10", he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can blow it by hitters when he wants to. He's also got a slider and a changeup, though both lack the consistent finish that he will ultimately need in pro ball. Owens does a good job of transferring his power from his legs to his arm, but ratcheting a fastball up to 94-95 from a 5'10" frame still requires some effort regardless. It's kind of a reliever profile, but the Braves will hope to get his secondaries refined enough to get him into the back of a rotation. Owens was committed to Florida but signed for $547,500, which counted for $422,500 against the Braves' bonus pool, and he has a 4.76 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 5/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 5.2 innings between the Gulf Coast League and Danville.
16-487: RHP Joey Estes (Paraclete HS [CA], unranked)
Going well overslot again, the Braves grabbed Joey Estes from high school in Lancaster, California in the 16th round. He's a 6'2" righty with a live arm that produces running low 90's fastballs as well as a solid breaking ball with good depth, and he has shown feel for a changeup with some fade. Like a lot of kids his age, he needs to get more consistent with his mechanics and get more extension in his delivery as well as get more consistent with his arm slot, but he's got the talent and the Braves will hope to bring it out of him consistently. There is significant reliever risk here, though he also doesn't turn 18 until October and is very young for a high school senior. Committed to Long Beach State, he signed for $500,000, which counted for $375,000 against the Braves' bonus pool.
Also notable: Ricky DeVito (8-247), Tyler Owens (13-397), Joey Estes (16-487)
After failing to sign first rounder Carter Stewart in 2018, the Braves got the ninth overall pick this year in addition to their regular first round pick at #21, and they used them on two of the best college position players in Texas in Baylor's Shea Langeliers and Texas A&M's Braden Shewmake. They also signed several underslot deals early on, saving about $1.5 million between Langeliers and second rounder Beau Philip, and they spread that extra money around on several hard to sign high schoolers on Day Three. In fact, with $125,000 as the de facto slot value in rounds 11-40, the Braves signed four different players to bonuses above $250,000 in those rounds and a fifth at at just a hair under $200,000. They love to draft and develop young pitching, and it has worked out for them with guys like Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, Ian Anderson, Kyle Muller, Joey Wentz, and Bryse Wilson coming through the pipeline, so guys like Tyler Owens and Joey Estes will hope to join that group down the line. It's a high risk draft given all the high schoolers, but they hope that those early picks will mitigate some of that.
1-9: C Shea Langeliers (Baylor, my rank: 11)
Adley Rutschman was the clear best catcher (and near-consensus best player) in this year's draft as someone who was exceptional on both sides of the ball, but Shea Langeliers might actually be the better defender. The Dallas-Fort Worth area native has an absolute cannon behind the plate, and his exceptional defensive actions behind the plate make him a safe bet to not only stick as a catcher but provide serious positive value back there. Given how the Braves love to draft and develop young pitching, having Langeliers there to work with those kids will be an added bonus. However, his bat isn't as sure of a thing as his glove, especially as a top ten pick here. He had a big freshman season at Baylor and slashed .313/.388/.540, but that line dropped to .252/.351/.496 as a sophomore and a broken hand early in his junior season this year clouded his draft status. He bounced back very nicely and finished the year with a .308/.374/.530 line, ten home runs, and a 29/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games, including an incredible showing against Nebraska-Omaha in the NCAA regional in Los Angeles where he picked up five hits, including a single, a double, and three home runs, in six at bats. Overall, his 14% strikeout rate was fairly low, though so was his 8.7% walk rate, and his numbers across the board were more good than great. He has some power but may need some minor mechanical changes to tap into it more, though with average plate discipline and feel for the barrel, he ultimately projects for 15-20 home runs annually with middling on-base percentages if his bat develops as expected. His glove, though, will take a ton of pressure off that bat. He signed for $4 million, which was $950,000 below slot, and he's slashing .203/.294/.324 with a home run and a 19/9 strikeout to walk ratio through 19 games at Class A Rome.
1-21: SS Braden Shewmake (Texas A&M, my rank: 40)
I remain a bit skeptical of this pick, but not as much as I was a month ago due to Braden Shewmake's hot start in the Class A South Atlantic League. Shewmake gives the Braves a second straight Texas college position player, as well as a second straight kid from DFW; Langeliers grew up in Keller on the Fort Worth side, while Shewmake comes from Wylie on the Dallas side. Oh, and they were born one day apart in November of 1997 in the same DFW metroplex. Anyways, Shewmake has been a consistent performer all three seasons down at Texas A&M, and he capped it off by slashing .313/.374/.474 with six home runs and a 27/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games this season. He finds the barrel extremely easily, as evidenced by just a 9.6% strikeout rate against tough competition this season, tending to spray line drives around the field with occasional over the fence pop. At 6'4", he's still projectable and could add additional power, but too often this season I felt that he lacked the ability to truly impact the ball consistently, especially given his size. I think the key to success for Shewmake as a first round pick will be developing that power, because otherwise he projects as a utility infielder with solid on-base percentages. He's also not a lock to stay at shortstop, as he's not the steadiest defender and may have to move to second or third base. His makeup and leadership are reportedly plusses, so that should help him maximize his ability. Shewmake signed at slot for $3.13 million, and he's off to a torrid .358/.404/.509 start with a home run and an 18/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games with Langeliers at Rome.
2-60: SS Beau Philip (Oregon State, unranked)
At 60th overall, Beau Philip was actually the first player drafted that I did not have ranked on my pre-draft list. The Sacramento-area native transferred from San Joaquin Delta College to Oregon State this season, then slashed .311/.369/.486 with five home runs and a 36/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games for the Beavers. Philip is an athletic kid with some solid raw tools, though with only 44 Division I games under his belt, he doesn't quite have the track record that some would like to see. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, but he's good at driving the ball into the gaps and he has enough speed to make things happen on the bases. That also helps him out defensively, where he has a strong arm and should be either a solid shortstop or a very good defensive third baseman. Overall, he hasn't really put it all together, but with his talent and age (he doesn't turn 21 until October, making him extremely young for the class), the Braves hope that pro refinement can make him a competent utility infielder or even a fringe starter who could hit for solid on-base percentages and ten or so home runs per season with positive defensive value. He signed for $697,500, which was $462,500 below slot, and he's slashing .123/.247/.233 with two home runs, three stolen bases, and a 20/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 games at rookie level Danville.
3-98: OF Michael Harris (Stockbridge HS [GA], unranked)
After three straight college picks from major programs, the Braves turned back to their own back yard to grab high schooler Michael Harris out of Stockbridge High School on the south side of the Atlanta suburbs. Jeff Francoeur (Parkview HS, 2002), Brian McCann (Duluth HS, 2002), and Jason Heyward (Henry County HS, 2007) were all early draft picks as high schoolers from the Atlanta area that went on to star for the Braves, and Drew Waters (Etowah HS, 2017) is on the way as well while Lucas Sims (Brookwood HS, 2012) didn't quite work out. Harris was actually a two-way player in high school, but the Braves are betting on his offensive upside and will stick him in center field. Offensively, he's a switch hitter whose swing is a bit quicker from the right side than the left, but he has some power in his quick hands. He's going to need mechanical refinements in both of his swings, as he lacks much extension at this point and also has his fair share of swing and miss. He'll be a project, but he has high upside as a potential power/speed guy who can play a good center field. Committed to Texas Tech, he instead signed for $547,500, which was $43,600 below slot, and he's slashing .383/.453/.468 with a pair of stolen bases and a 12/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 13 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League.
4-127: RHP Kasey Kalich (Texas A&M, unranked)
Going back to College Station, the Braves took Shewmake's teammate Kasey Kalich in the fourth round. The South Texas native from Victoria began his collegiate career at Blinn College but transferred down the road to A&M for his sophomore season this year, where he posted a 3.18 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 51/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 innings out of the bullpen. Though he's a sophomore, he turned 21 in April and was draft-eligible this year, and he uses his mid 90's fastball and solid slider to generate a ton of swings and misses. He'll have to refine that slider a bit in pro ball to get more bite on it, but his loose arm and present velocity give the Braves something to work with and gives him the upside of a solid set-up man. The command isn't pinpoint, but it shouldn't be an issue going forward. He signed for $347,500, which was $99,900 below slot, and he has a 1.69 ERA, a 1.88 WHIP, and an 8/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 5.1 innings between the Gulf Coast League and Rome so far.
5-157: OF Stephen Paolini (St. Joseph's HS [CT], unranked)
Stephen Paolini, a high schooler in Trumbull, Connecticut, was little-known on draft day and there isn't much information available on him anywhere. He's a 6'2" outfielder with some leverage in his left handed swing, though he'll need mechanical refinements to help him get to his power more consistently. Matt Powers over at Talking Chop wrote that Paolini "is a plus runner who should hit for some power." Together, it looks like the Braves are hoping that pro coaching can help him grow into a power/speed threat who can play center field, not too unlike third rounder Michael Harris. Committed to Elon, he signed for $597,500, which was $264,200 above slot, and he's slashing .159/.283/.159 with a 13/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 11 games in the Gulf Coast League.
8-247: RHP Ricky DeVito (Seton Hall, my rank: 130)
Ricky DeVito was dominant as a sophomore at Seton Hall in 2018, posting a 1.88 ERA and a 67/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 starts, then he went on to put up a 2.45 ERA and a 35/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.1 innings in the elite Cape Cod League that summer. He entered 2019 with a chance to push himself into the first round conversation with a good spring, but DeVito ultimately took a step back as a junior this year. The Staten Island native put up a 3.92 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 68/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.1 innings, looking great some days but getting hit hard on others. DeVito used a low to mid 90's fastball and a good curveball and changeup for his big 2018, but his velocity was down a tick in 2019 and his command took a step back as he struggled to keep his mechanics together consistently. From the Braves' perspective, getting him back to being consistent with those mechanics should help his stuff tick back up in pro ball, where he could be a #4 starter, and not turning 21 until August gives him a bit of extra time. However, he's trending in the wrong direction as it stands and he carries reliever risk if he can't figure out his command. DeVito signed for $167,500, which was $1,400 above slot, and he has a 5.79 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 13/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 9.1 innings between the Gulf Coast League and Danville.
13-397: RHP Tyler Owens (Trinity Catholic HS [FL], unranked)
Tyler Owens is a high schooler from Ocala, Florida, who brings premium velocity from a short stature. Despite standing only 5'10", he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can blow it by hitters when he wants to. He's also got a slider and a changeup, though both lack the consistent finish that he will ultimately need in pro ball. Owens does a good job of transferring his power from his legs to his arm, but ratcheting a fastball up to 94-95 from a 5'10" frame still requires some effort regardless. It's kind of a reliever profile, but the Braves will hope to get his secondaries refined enough to get him into the back of a rotation. Owens was committed to Florida but signed for $547,500, which counted for $422,500 against the Braves' bonus pool, and he has a 4.76 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 5/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 5.2 innings between the Gulf Coast League and Danville.
16-487: RHP Joey Estes (Paraclete HS [CA], unranked)
Going well overslot again, the Braves grabbed Joey Estes from high school in Lancaster, California in the 16th round. He's a 6'2" righty with a live arm that produces running low 90's fastballs as well as a solid breaking ball with good depth, and he has shown feel for a changeup with some fade. Like a lot of kids his age, he needs to get more consistent with his mechanics and get more extension in his delivery as well as get more consistent with his arm slot, but he's got the talent and the Braves will hope to bring it out of him consistently. There is significant reliever risk here, though he also doesn't turn 18 until October and is very young for a high school senior. Committed to Long Beach State, he signed for $500,000, which counted for $375,000 against the Braves' bonus pool.
Thursday, May 16, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: Second Basemen
It's hard to say exactly who ends up at second base down the road, as most second basemen begin their pro careers as shortstop (as will many of the players listed below), so this list is more of an educated guess as to who will end up at second base long term. There are no standouts here, with many projecting to be solid utility infielders, though there are some very good bats to be found at both the college and high school levels.
Tier I: Will Wilson, Braden Shewmake
There are two second basemen with serious first round aspirations, though both currently play shortstop. In my opinion, North Carolina State's Will Wilson is the superior prospect, having hit well all three years in Raleigh, improving each time. This year has been his best, as he slashed .346/.429/.681 with 15 home runs and a 39/27 strikeout to walk ratio through 47 games as of this writing, showcasing both power and the ability to make consistent hard contact against quality ACC pitching. He's a smaller guy at 5'11" and 175 pounds, but he generates a ton of torque in his right handed swing and should continue to hit for power at the next level. While he doesn't have the most advanced feel for the strike zone in the ACC, he has a strong enough plate discipline that it shouldn't be an issue in pro ball. Defensively, he has a shot to stick at short with his athleticism and strong arm, but his most likely landing spot will be second base, where he should be an above average defender. Meanwhile, Braden Shewmake over at Texas A&M remains a first round prospect, though he was better in 2018 (5 HR, .325/.395/.450, 21/21 K/BB) than in 2019 (5 HR, .307/.360/.462, 23/17 K/BB). Shewmake is a much bigger guy than Wilson at 6'4", but he's skinny and scouts are unsure if he will ever grow into that frame. However, if he does, the additional power he could generate would give him very high upside given his already strong bat to ball skills and feel for the barrel. While Wilson is likely destined for second base, Shewmake could end up at any infield position to the left of first base due to his stronger arm and bigger size. However, if the power never comes, Shewmake will be more of a table-setter than a true impact hitter. Both Wilson and Shewmake project to go somewhere in the back half of the first round, though Shewmake could fall into the comp round.
Tier II: Chase Strumpf, Brooks Lee, Matthew Lugo
These three potential future second basemen couldn't be more different, but all of their skill sets add up to roughly the same tier. Chase Strumpf, as the only college player in this tier, holds the least risk, though like Shewmake he was better as a sophomore last year (12 HR, .363/.475/.633, 53/45 K/BB) than as a junior this year (7 HR, .309/.453/.503, 43/41 K/BB). He is also unique on this list because he is the only player who actually plays second base right now, manning the keystone for the best college team in the country, the UCLA Bruins. As a mediocre to decent defender, Strumpf's value is mostly tied to his bat, as he combines high walk rates with good present power to be a force in the middle of the Bruins lineup. His bat projects to be productive in the major leagues with the potential to reach true impact level, though there is enough swing and miss in his game (to go along with his reduced numbers this year) to put some risk there. Because he's nothing special defensively, he'll need to hit to hold value, and he projects as a second rounder. Meanwhile, Brooks Lee has one of the more interesting profiles of this year's high school crop. As the son of Cal Poly head coach Larry Lee, it comes as no surprise that Brooks has tremendous feel for the game and that he maximizes his skill set at every turn. A switch hitter, neither his left handed nor right handed swings are all that smooth, but he has such good hand-eye coordination and feel for the barrel that he can make consistent hard contact against even the best high school pitching. He is also a competent defender that could stick at short but who may have to move to second or third base down the line, but it's really the hit tool and the high baseball IQ you are buying here. He'll need some mechanical adjustments in pro ball and has a second round profile, but teams like his feel for the game enough that he could sneak into the comp round. Matthew Lugo, the top Puerto Rican prospect this year, is much more raw than Lee but has plenty of upside. He is athletic and projectable, with his whippy swing providing some power projection down the road. His future position is up in the air, but he should provide positive defensive value either as a workable shortstop or as a solid second or third baseman. All together, he has a high ceiling as a very productive regular and a low floor, so he could go anywhere in the second or third rounds.
Tier III: Cameron Cannon, Josh Smith, Christian Cairo
By tier three, you're definitely looking at guys who are more likely to end up as utility infielders than true starters. Still, there are a couple of good options to choose from, each of whom comes with relatively lower risk. Arizona's Cameron Cannon has been very strong with the bat, slashing .391/.473/.633 with seven home runs and a 28/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games for the Wildcats, showing very few holes in his game. He has great feel for the barrel and a solid approach at the plate, giving him a high chance to hit well in pro ball, and he packs some power into his 5'10" frame due to his whippy swing that could produce even more in pro ball. He's nothing special defensively, but he's a gamer who can handle pretty much any position and he has a classic utility infield profile. Louisiana State's Josh Smith, meanwhile, has been as steady as they come, slashing .345/.440/.518 with seven home runs and a 38/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games for the Tigers in a breakout junior season. He also shows some power and the ability to play multiple positions, showing a little more arm strength but a little less power projection than Cannon. He also strikes out just a little more than you would like for a player with his profile, so he and Cannon both look like third rounders at this point with the chance to sneak into the second. Meanwhile, Christian Cairo has a similar profile to both, though he's still in high school in the Tampa area. The son of MLB veteran Miguel Cairo, Christian brings the expected feel for the game and in that sense isn't too dissimilar to Brooks Lee. However, Lee shows more power projection, with Cairo looking more like a consistent line drive bat who shows a good feel for the zone and who makes all of the routine plays in the infield. He has a clean swing and should have little trouble transitioning to pro ball with the ultimate projection of being a utility infielder with the chance for more.
Others: Brady McConnell, Gabe Holt, Michael Massey
Tier I: Will Wilson, Braden Shewmake
There are two second basemen with serious first round aspirations, though both currently play shortstop. In my opinion, North Carolina State's Will Wilson is the superior prospect, having hit well all three years in Raleigh, improving each time. This year has been his best, as he slashed .346/.429/.681 with 15 home runs and a 39/27 strikeout to walk ratio through 47 games as of this writing, showcasing both power and the ability to make consistent hard contact against quality ACC pitching. He's a smaller guy at 5'11" and 175 pounds, but he generates a ton of torque in his right handed swing and should continue to hit for power at the next level. While he doesn't have the most advanced feel for the strike zone in the ACC, he has a strong enough plate discipline that it shouldn't be an issue in pro ball. Defensively, he has a shot to stick at short with his athleticism and strong arm, but his most likely landing spot will be second base, where he should be an above average defender. Meanwhile, Braden Shewmake over at Texas A&M remains a first round prospect, though he was better in 2018 (5 HR, .325/.395/.450, 21/21 K/BB) than in 2019 (5 HR, .307/.360/.462, 23/17 K/BB). Shewmake is a much bigger guy than Wilson at 6'4", but he's skinny and scouts are unsure if he will ever grow into that frame. However, if he does, the additional power he could generate would give him very high upside given his already strong bat to ball skills and feel for the barrel. While Wilson is likely destined for second base, Shewmake could end up at any infield position to the left of first base due to his stronger arm and bigger size. However, if the power never comes, Shewmake will be more of a table-setter than a true impact hitter. Both Wilson and Shewmake project to go somewhere in the back half of the first round, though Shewmake could fall into the comp round.
Tier II: Chase Strumpf, Brooks Lee, Matthew Lugo
These three potential future second basemen couldn't be more different, but all of their skill sets add up to roughly the same tier. Chase Strumpf, as the only college player in this tier, holds the least risk, though like Shewmake he was better as a sophomore last year (12 HR, .363/.475/.633, 53/45 K/BB) than as a junior this year (7 HR, .309/.453/.503, 43/41 K/BB). He is also unique on this list because he is the only player who actually plays second base right now, manning the keystone for the best college team in the country, the UCLA Bruins. As a mediocre to decent defender, Strumpf's value is mostly tied to his bat, as he combines high walk rates with good present power to be a force in the middle of the Bruins lineup. His bat projects to be productive in the major leagues with the potential to reach true impact level, though there is enough swing and miss in his game (to go along with his reduced numbers this year) to put some risk there. Because he's nothing special defensively, he'll need to hit to hold value, and he projects as a second rounder. Meanwhile, Brooks Lee has one of the more interesting profiles of this year's high school crop. As the son of Cal Poly head coach Larry Lee, it comes as no surprise that Brooks has tremendous feel for the game and that he maximizes his skill set at every turn. A switch hitter, neither his left handed nor right handed swings are all that smooth, but he has such good hand-eye coordination and feel for the barrel that he can make consistent hard contact against even the best high school pitching. He is also a competent defender that could stick at short but who may have to move to second or third base down the line, but it's really the hit tool and the high baseball IQ you are buying here. He'll need some mechanical adjustments in pro ball and has a second round profile, but teams like his feel for the game enough that he could sneak into the comp round. Matthew Lugo, the top Puerto Rican prospect this year, is much more raw than Lee but has plenty of upside. He is athletic and projectable, with his whippy swing providing some power projection down the road. His future position is up in the air, but he should provide positive defensive value either as a workable shortstop or as a solid second or third baseman. All together, he has a high ceiling as a very productive regular and a low floor, so he could go anywhere in the second or third rounds.
Tier III: Cameron Cannon, Josh Smith, Christian Cairo
By tier three, you're definitely looking at guys who are more likely to end up as utility infielders than true starters. Still, there are a couple of good options to choose from, each of whom comes with relatively lower risk. Arizona's Cameron Cannon has been very strong with the bat, slashing .391/.473/.633 with seven home runs and a 28/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games for the Wildcats, showing very few holes in his game. He has great feel for the barrel and a solid approach at the plate, giving him a high chance to hit well in pro ball, and he packs some power into his 5'10" frame due to his whippy swing that could produce even more in pro ball. He's nothing special defensively, but he's a gamer who can handle pretty much any position and he has a classic utility infield profile. Louisiana State's Josh Smith, meanwhile, has been as steady as they come, slashing .345/.440/.518 with seven home runs and a 38/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games for the Tigers in a breakout junior season. He also shows some power and the ability to play multiple positions, showing a little more arm strength but a little less power projection than Cannon. He also strikes out just a little more than you would like for a player with his profile, so he and Cannon both look like third rounders at this point with the chance to sneak into the second. Meanwhile, Christian Cairo has a similar profile to both, though he's still in high school in the Tampa area. The son of MLB veteran Miguel Cairo, Christian brings the expected feel for the game and in that sense isn't too dissimilar to Brooks Lee. However, Lee shows more power projection, with Cairo looking more like a consistent line drive bat who shows a good feel for the zone and who makes all of the routine plays in the infield. He has a clean swing and should have little trouble transitioning to pro ball with the ultimate projection of being a utility infielder with the chance for more.
Others: Brady McConnell, Gabe Holt, Michael Massey
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