Thursday, May 16, 2019

2019 Draft Preview: Second Basemen

It's hard to say exactly who ends up at second base down the road, as most second basemen begin their pro careers as shortstop (as will many of the players listed below), so this list is more of an educated guess as to who will end up at second base long term. There are no standouts here, with many projecting to be solid utility infielders, though there are some very good bats to be found at both the college and high school levels.

Tier I: Will Wilson, Braden Shewmake
There are two second basemen with serious first round aspirations, though both currently play shortstop. In my opinion, North Carolina State's Will Wilson is the superior prospect, having hit well all three years in Raleigh, improving each time. This year has been his best, as he slashed .346/.429/.681 with 15 home runs and a 39/27 strikeout to walk ratio through 47 games as of this writing, showcasing both power and the ability to make consistent hard contact against quality ACC pitching. He's a smaller guy at 5'11" and 175 pounds, but he generates a ton of torque in his right handed swing and should continue to hit for power at the next level. While he doesn't have the most advanced feel for the strike zone in the ACC, he has a strong enough plate discipline that it shouldn't be an issue in pro ball. Defensively, he has a shot to stick at short with his athleticism and strong arm, but his most likely landing spot will be second base, where he should be an above average defender. Meanwhile, Braden Shewmake over at Texas A&M remains a first round prospect, though he was better in 2018 (5 HR, .325/.395/.450, 21/21 K/BB) than in 2019 (5 HR, .307/.360/.462, 23/17 K/BB). Shewmake is a much bigger guy than Wilson at 6'4", but he's skinny and scouts are unsure if he will ever grow into that frame. However, if he does, the additional power he could generate would give him very high upside given his already strong bat to ball skills and feel for the barrel. While Wilson is likely destined for second base, Shewmake could end up at any infield position to the left of first base due to his stronger arm and bigger size. However, if the power never comes, Shewmake will be more of a table-setter than a true impact hitter. Both Wilson and Shewmake project to go somewhere in the back half of the first round, though Shewmake could fall into the comp round.

Tier II: Chase Strumpf, Brooks Lee, Matthew Lugo
These three potential future second basemen couldn't be more different, but all of their skill sets add up to roughly the same tier. Chase Strumpf, as the only college player in this tier, holds the least risk, though like Shewmake he was better as a sophomore last year (12 HR, .363/.475/.633, 53/45 K/BB) than as a junior this year (7 HR, .309/.453/.503, 43/41 K/BB). He is also unique on this list because he is the only player who actually plays second base right now, manning the keystone for the best college team in the country, the UCLA Bruins. As a mediocre to decent defender, Strumpf's value is mostly tied to his bat, as he combines high walk rates with good present power to be a force in the middle of the Bruins lineup. His bat projects to be productive in the major leagues with the potential to reach true impact level, though there is enough swing and miss in his game (to go along with his reduced numbers this year) to put some risk there. Because he's nothing special defensively, he'll need to hit to hold value, and he projects as a second rounder. Meanwhile, Brooks Lee has one of the more interesting profiles of this year's high school crop. As the son of Cal Poly head coach Larry Lee, it comes as no surprise that Brooks has tremendous feel for the game and that he maximizes his skill set at every turn. A switch hitter, neither his left handed nor right handed swings are all that smooth, but he has such good hand-eye coordination and feel for the barrel that he can make consistent hard contact against even the best high school pitching. He is also a competent defender that could stick at short but who may have to move to second or third base down the line, but it's really the hit tool and the high baseball IQ you are buying here. He'll need some mechanical adjustments in pro ball and has a second round profile, but teams like his feel for the game enough that he could sneak into the comp round. Matthew Lugo, the top Puerto Rican prospect this year, is much more raw than Lee but has plenty of upside. He is athletic and projectable, with his whippy swing providing some power projection down the road. His future position is up in the air, but he should provide positive defensive value either as a workable shortstop or as a solid second or third baseman. All together, he has a high ceiling as a very productive regular and a low floor, so he could go anywhere in the second or third rounds.

Tier III: Cameron Cannon, Josh Smith, Christian Cairo
By tier three, you're definitely looking at guys who are more likely to end up as utility infielders than true starters. Still, there are a couple of good options to choose from, each of whom comes with relatively lower risk. Arizona's Cameron Cannon has been very strong with the bat, slashing .391/.473/.633 with seven home runs and a 28/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games for the Wildcats, showing very few holes in his game. He has great feel for the barrel and a solid approach at the plate, giving him a high chance to hit well in pro ball, and he packs some power into his 5'10" frame due to his whippy swing that could produce even more in pro ball. He's nothing special defensively, but he's a gamer who can handle pretty much any position and he has a classic utility infield profile. Louisiana State's Josh Smith, meanwhile, has been as steady as they come, slashing .345/.440/.518 with seven home runs and a 38/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games for the Tigers in a breakout junior season. He also shows some power and the ability to play multiple positions, showing a little more arm strength but a little less power projection than Cannon. He also strikes out just a little more than you would like for a player with his profile, so he and Cannon both look like third rounders at this point with the chance to sneak into the second. Meanwhile, Christian Cairo has a similar profile to both, though he's still in high school in the Tampa area. The son of MLB veteran Miguel Cairo, Christian brings the expected feel for the game and in that sense isn't too dissimilar to Brooks Lee. However, Lee shows more power projection, with Cairo looking more like a consistent line drive bat who shows a good feel for the zone and who makes all of the routine plays in the infield. He has a clean swing and should have little trouble transitioning to pro ball with the ultimate projection of being a utility infielder with the chance for more.

Others: Brady McConnell, Gabe Holt, Michael Massey

No comments:

Post a Comment