There are two clear headliners in this year's college outfield class, though aside from Kameron Misner, there probably won't be any others picked until the middle of the second round or later. Aside from the lack of a middle tier of late first round/comp round/early second round guys, there is a lot to like here, and once you get towards the end of day one/start of day two, there are quite a few guys who could make a difference in a variety of ways.
Tier I: JJ Bleday, Hunter Bishop
The two top outfielders in the class arrived here with huge junior seasons in which they tremendously improved their stock. Vanderbilt's JJ Bleday was seen as more likely to go in the back half of the first round after he slashed .368/.494/.511 with four home runs and a 23/31 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore in 2018, with scouts pleased by his plate discipline but looking for more power. He provided it and more this year, slashing .346/.461/.748 with 25 home runs and a 45/45 strikeout to walk ratio through 55 games, showing few if any holes in his offensive game with power, contact, and plate discipline in spades. He also slashed .311/.374/.500 on the Cape and has slashed .304/.438/.687 in SEC play, so there is little worry that he'll produce at the next level. With a strong arm but not much foot speed, he'll be a serviceable right fielder with most of his value tied to his bat, which projects to have middle of the order impact. He'll get drafted somewhere between the third and sixth picks. Across the country, Arizona State's Hunter Bishop has improved his stock more than perhaps any player this season, jumping from a day two pick to the top half of the first round. After slashing .250/.352/.407 as a sophomore for the Sun Devils, he busted out with 22 home runs, a .356/.482/.792 slash line, and a 56/42 strikeout to walk ratio through 51 games as a junior, showing some of the best raw power in the class along the way. Despite adding a ton of power, Bishop cut his strikeout rate by a quarter and bumped up his walk rate by more than 50%, which bodes well for his ability to continue to tap that power at the next level. His strikeout rate is still a little bit high (22.3%) and he has come down to Earth a bit in Pac-12 play (.273/.403/.555), so he's safely behind Bleday in my book, he's easily the better defender and could stay in center field. He likely cracks the top ten picks and there have been a lot of rumors about the Rangers taking him eighth overall, though I believe I may be the low guy on him.
Tier II: Kameron Misner
Don't take Misner's spot by himself here to mean anything about him specifically; there really are no other college outfielders who are close to his skill level, with Bleday and Bishop being much better and the Tier III guys being well behind him. Missouri's Kameron Misner could have pushed his way into Tier I with a good run through SEC play, but his overall .287/.443/.485 line with ten home runs and a 56/54 strikeout to walk ratio includes just a .222/.353/.315 line against advanced SEC pitching. That makes Misner a bit of a conundrum, as he missed most of SEC play as well as summer ball last season with a broken foot. He's a great athlete with power, speed, and a strong arm, and he hit well last year (.360/.497/.576) in his 34 games as a sophomore, mostly against non-SEC pitching. Misner's great outfield defense will buy his bat plenty of time, and his power and high walk rate are definitely there, but he's just unproven against higher level pitching and the holes in his swing might get exposed. He has the ceiling of a #5 hitter with a strong glove and arm, but he comes with more risk than is usual for players of his profile. He looks to be drafted in the back half of the first round.
Tier III: Matt Wallner, Kyle Stowers, Will Robertson, Zach Watson, Dominic Fletcher
While Misner is alone in that second tier, there are plenty of bats in the third tier and they're all a little different. Matt Wallner, a two-way player out of Southern Miss, has had an up and down season after slashing .351/.474/.618 with 16 home runs and a 53/48 strikeout to walk ratio last year. This year, he's slashing .315/.431/.665 with 19 home runs and a 43/40 strikeout to walk ratio through 53 games, the only real differences between this year and last year being less consistency, a bit more power, and a lower batting average on balls in play. He's 6'5" and his left handed swing is geared more for power than for contact, which has worked against C-USA pitching but gave him so-so results in the Cape Cod League (.250/.343/.417, 24/8 K/BB). He's far from a guarantee to hit at the next level, but he has shown enough game power and plate discipline to warrant a second round selection and he could pop 30 home runs annually in the majors. Some teams were also looking at him as a potential reliever, but arm issues have kept him from pitching this season and he has stated that he prefers to hit. That arm does play well in the outfield, giving him some defensive value in right field. Over at Stanford, Kyle Stowers has had an interesting run. In 2018, Stowers slashed .286/.383/.512 with ten home runs and a 49/30 strikeout to walk ratio, then he hit six home runs and slashed .326/.361/.565 on the Cape over the summer. This year seems like more of the same with seven home runs and a .293/.365/.506 line, but his 21/21 strikeout to walk ratio means means that he cut his strikeout rate in half. That's especially interesting given that the length in his swing has led to swing and miss concerns. It's hard to say what Stowers' ultimate projection is, because he looks like more of a fourth outfielder with his solid power but potentially low on-base percentages, but the production on the Cape and this year's reduced strikeout rate could mean that he'll get to his power more often than we might think. He looks like a third rounder, but he could sneak into the back of the second. Creighton's Will Robertson is also hard to project, with his eleven home runs, .301/.390/.554 slash line, and 37/19 strikeout to walk ratio making for another solid season in Omaha. He has left handed power and it played up on the Cape (4 HR, .300/.380/.435), making evaluators hopeful that his lack of tough competition in the Big East will be less of an issue. He could be a middle of the order hitter if everything plays up as hoped, though his aggressive approach against mediocre Big East pitching does give him some risk. He also doesn't have much defensive value as a decent left fielder, so the pressure will be on his bat. He looks like a third rounder. Zach Watson is a very well known name in the SEC, as he has started for LSU for three years now and has produced every season. This year has been more of the same, as he slashed .317/.367/.472 with five home runs and a 38/14 strikeout to walk ratio through his first 50 games. He was draft-eligible as a sophomore last year and could have been a second or third round pick after slashing a nearly identical .308/.366/.479, but he wanted to return to Baton Rouge and he's back in roughly the same spot this year. He has a line drive bat and hits the ball very hard for someone listed at just 165 pounds, but his aggressive approach limits his walks and his line drive swing limits his power. Offensively, he has the tools to work with to become a solid piece (though he'll also turn 22 a few weeks after the draft), but his real value is on defense, where he is a very good center fielder and can track down almost any ball hit in his direction. Because he hasn't made any progress over last year's numbers, he looks like a third round pick. Arkansas's Dominic Fletcher is a fairly similar player to Watson, slashing .320/.383/.551 with ten home runs and a 48/22 strikeout to walk ratio through 55 games this season. Fletcher, like Watson, makes plenty of contact against SEC pitching and has a long track record of starting for his team, though he's also listed at 5'9" and that limits his overall offensive outlook. He has a strong glove, though not quite to the same level as Watson's, and that buys his bat some slack, and he's also considered to have a strong feel for the game that will help him maximize his tools. Improving his plate discipline should be a good start, and he also looks like a third round pick.
Others: Bryant Packard, Matt Gorski, Gabe Holt, Jordan Brewer
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