Tuesday, July 31, 2018

The Trade Deadline All In One Place

AL East

75-33 Boston Red Sox (buyers)
Acquired: Ian Kinsler, Nathan Eovaldi, Steve Pearce, cash, international bonus money
Traded: Jalen Beeks, minor leaguers Ty Buttrey, Williams Jerez, Santiago Espinal, Lorenzo Cedrola
Made minor upgrades without selling the farm 

67-37 New York Yankees (buyers)
Acquired: Zach Britton, J.A. Happ, Lance Lynn, Luke Voit, international bonus money
Traded: Brandon Drury, Adam Warren, Chasen Shreve, Tyler Austin, Giovanny Gallegos, Billy McKinney, minor leaguers Dillon Tate, Caleb Frare, Cody Carroll, Josh Rodgers, Luis Rijo
Made roster much more efficient but upgrading positions, selling off expendables, and dealing from depth

53-53 Tampa Bay Rays (both)
Acquired: Tommy Pham, Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, Hoby Milner, Jalen Beeks, minor leaguers Brian Shaffer, Michael Perez, two players to be named later, cash, international bonus money
Traded: Chris Archer, Nathan Eovaldi, Matt Andriese, Wilson Ramos, Jonny Venters, Jeremy Hazelbaker, minor leaguers Genesis Cabrera, Justin Williams, Roel Ramirez, Hunter Schryver, cash
Took interesting path by acquiring some controllable players while also selling off all kinds of players from Chris Archer to prospects to free agent rentals

48-57 Toronto Blue Jays (sellers)
Acquired: Ken Giles, Brandon Drury, Billy McKinney, David Paulino, minor leaguers Forrest Wall, Chad Spanberger, Hector Perez, Corey Copping, Jacob Waguespack
Traded: Roberto Osuna, J.A. Happ, Seung-Hwan Oh, Aaron Loup, John Axford
Added to strong farm system while also ridding themselves of domestic abuser Roberto Osuna, overall a great job 

32-74 Baltimore Orioles (sellers)
Acquired: Jonathan Villar, Evan Phillips, Breyvic Valera, minor leaguers Yusniel Diaz, Bruce Zimmerman, Jean Carlos Encarnacion, Luis Ortiz, Dillon Tate, Brett Cumberland, Rylan Bannon, Dean Kremer, Zach Pop, Cody Carroll, Josh Rodgers, Jean Carmona, international bonus money
Traded: Manny Machado, Kevin Gausman, Zach Britton, Jonathan Schoop, Brad Brach, Darren O'Day
Finally got serious about a rebuild and completely revamped their farm system by tearing down the team in such a way that would make the Marlins look conservative

AL Central

57-48 Cleveland Indians (buyers)
Acquired: Brad Hand, Adam Cimber, Leonys Martin, James Hoyt, minor leaguers Oscar Mercado, Kyle Dowdy
Trade: Francisco Mejia, minor leaguers Willi Castro, Conner Capel, Jhon Torres, Tommy DeJuneas
Upgraded bullpen and outfield but outside of Brad Hand, no major pieces moved

49-56 Minnesota Twins (sellers)
Acquired: Logan Forsythe, Tyler Austin, Chase De Jong, Jeremy Hazelbaker, minor leaguers Jhoan Duran, Ernie De La Trinidad, Gabriel Maciel, Gilberto Celestino, Jorge Alcala, Luke Raley, Devin Smeltzer, Ryan Costello, Luis Rijo, Jon Kemmer
Traded: Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Ryan Pressly, Lance Lynn, Zach Duke, cash
Added high-upside talent by offloading some of the bigger names on the roster

45-62 Detroit Tigers (neither)
Acquired: Minor leaguer Willi Castro
Traded: Leonys Martin, minor leaguer Kyle Dowdy
Stayed mostly quiet after wild deadline last season

37-68 Chicago White Sox (sellers)
Acquired: Minor leaguers Kodi Medeiros, Wilber Perez, Caleb Frare, Hunter Schryver
Traded: Joakim Soria, international bonus money
Quiet deadline, but they did grab a quality prospect in Medeiros

32-73 Kansas City Royals (sellers)
Acquired: Brian Goodwin, Brett Phillips, Jorge Lopez, minor leaguers Blake Perkins, Kelvin Gutierrez, Yohanse Morel
Traded: Kelvin Herrera, Mike Moustakas, minor leaguer Jacob Condra-Bogan
Also quiet, added some nice young outfield pieces for a couple long-time players

AL West

67-41 Houston Astros (buyers)
Acquired: Roberto Osuna, Ryan Pressly, Martin Maldonado, minor leaguer Tommy DeJuneas
Traded: Ken Giles, David Paulino, James Hoyt, minor leaguers Hector Perez, Gilberto Celestino, Jorge Alcala, Patrick Sandoval, Jon Kemmer, international bonus money
Grabbed two quality arms and a catcher in exchange for a host of arms from the system

63-43 Seattle Mariners (buyers)
Acquired: Cameron Maybin, Adam Warren, Zach Duke, Sam Tuivailala
Traded: Chase de Jong, minor leaguers Seth Elledge, Bryson Brigman, Ryan Costello, international bonus money
Added reinforced bullpen without giving up any top prospects from a depleted farm system

62-46 Oakland Athletics (buyers)
Acquired: Jeurys Familia
Traded: Bobby Wahl, minor leaguer Will Toffey, international bonus money
Quiet deadline but got Familia at a big discount

54-53 Los Angeles Angels (sellers)
Acquired: Ty Buttrey, minor leaguers Patrick Sandoval, Williams Jerez, international bonus money
Traded: Ian Kinsler, Martin Maldonado, cash
Unlucky season forced Angels to sell, though it was more of a re-stock than a tear-down

46-62 Texas Rangers (sellers)
Acquired: Austin Jackson, Cory Gearrin, Eddie Butler, minor leaguers Taylor Hearn, Jason Bahr, Rollie Lacy, Tyler Thomas, Wei-Chieh Huang, three players to be named later
Traded: Cole Hamels, Keone Kela, Jake Diekman, Jesse Chavez, player to be named later
Sent all of their arms off and brought back...a lot of players to be named later, though Taylor Hearn is a big get

NL East

58-48 Philadelphia Phillies (buyers)
Acquired: Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilson Ramos, Aaron Loup, cash, international bonus money
Traded: Hoby Milner, minor leaguers Franklyn Kilome, Jacob Waguespack, Elniery Garcia, player to be named later
Made some minor but necessary additions while dealing from position of depth

56-47 Atlanta Braves (buyers)
Acquired: Kevin Gausman, Adam Duvall, Darren O'Day, Brad Brach, Jonny Venters
Traded: Matt Wisler, Preston Tucker, Lucas Sims, Evan Phillips, minor leaguers Bruce Zimmerman, Jean Carlos Encarnacion, Brett Cumberland, international bonus money
Did a great job of adding quality arms and Duvall without giving up anyone that figured prominently into their long term plans, simultaneously paving way for William Contreras by trading Cumberland

52-53 Washington Nationals (neither)
Acquired: Kelvin Herrera, minor leaguers Jhon Romero, Jacob Condra-Bogan
Traded: Brandon Kintzler, Brian Goodwin, minor leaguers Blake Perkins, Kelvin Gutierrez, Yohanse Morel
Stood mostly idle during what should have been a frantic trade deadline, seemingly content with mediocrity

44-59 New York Mets (sellers)
Acquired: Bobby Wahl, minor leaguers Will Toffey, Franklyn Kilome, international bonus money
Traded: Asdrubal Cabrera, Jeurys Familia
Unloaded difference makers to give their farm system a quick jolt

46-60 Miami Marlins (sellers)
Acquired: Minor leaguers Tommy Eveld, Bryson Brigman, international bonus money
Traded: Cameron Maybin, Brad Ziegler
Amid swirling J.T. Realmuto rumors, elected to just send off two decent pieces for a couple of prospects

NL Central

61-44 Chicago Cubs (buyers)
Acquired: Cole Hamels, Brandon Kintzler, Jesse Chavez, cash
Traded: Eddie Butler, minor leaguers Rollie Lacy, Jhon Romero, Tyler Thomas, player to be named later
Were able to make nice upgrades to pitching staff despite lack of prospects to give

62-47 Milwaukee Brewers (buyers)
Acquired: Jonathan Schoop, Mike Moustakas, Joakim Soria, cash
Traded: Jonathan Villar, Brett Phillips, Jorge Lopez, minor leaguers Luis Ortiz, Kodi Medeiros, Wilber Perez, Jean Carmona
Addressed a quite few needs but did have to take from farm system to do so

55-52 Pittsburgh Pirates (buyers)
Acquired: Chris Archer, Keone Kela
Traded: Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, Taylor Hearn, two players to be named later
Made huge additions to pitching staff, but at a steep cost

54-52 St. Louis Cardinals (sellers)
Acquired: Chasen Shreve, Giovanny Gallegos, minor leaguers Genesis Cabrera, Justin Williams, Roel Ramirez, Seth Elledge, Conner Capel, Jhon Torres, Elniery Garcia
Traded: Tommy Pham, Sam Tuivailala, Luke Voit, minor leaguer Oscar Mercado, international bonus money
Had a quick re-tool and grabbed some quality prospects in the process, could still compete in 2018

48-58 Cincinnati Reds (sellers)
Acquired: Matt Wisler, Preston Tucker, Lucas Sims, minor leaguers James Marinan, Aneurys Zabala, Lorenzo Cedrola
Traded: Adam Duvall, Dylan Floro, Zach Neal, international bonus money
Deadline has to be disappointing with small return for Adam Duvall

NL West

59-48 Los Angeles Dodgers (buyers)
Acquired: Manny Machado, Brian Dozier, John Axford, Dylan Floro, Zach Neal, international bonus money
Traded: Logan Forsythe, Breyvic Valera, minor leaguers Yusniel Diaz, Rylan Bannon, Dean Kremer, Zach Pop, Luke Raley, Devin Smeltzer, James Marinan, Aneurys Zabala, Corey Copping
Made huge upgrades to infield, had to part with many prospects but kept all top prospects except Diaz

59-49 Arizona Diamondbacks (buyers)
Acquired: Eduardo Escobar, Brad Ziegler, Jake Diekman, Matt Andriese
Traded: Minor leaguers Jhoan Duran, Ernie De La Trinidad, Gabriel Maciel, Brian Shaffer, Michael Perez, Wei-Chieh Huang, Tommy Eveld, player to be named later
Made quite a few important upgrades but had to part with a large number of prospects, avoiding the big names but still denting the farm system

57-48 Colorado Rockies (buyers)
Acquired: Seung-Hwan Oh
Traded: Minor leaguers Forrest Wall, Chad Spanberger
Quiet deadline, probably will hurt them in the chase for the Dodgers and Diamondbacks because they need more offense

54-54 San Francisco Giants (neither)
Acquired: Player to be named later
Traded: Austin Jackson, Cory Gearrin, minor leaguer Jason Bahr
Made salary dump trade early in July then stood idle at the deadline

42-67 San Diego Padres (sellers)
Acquired: Francisco Mejia
Traded: Brad Hand, Adam Cimber
Success of this deadline will depend on whether Mejia sticks as a catcher

Pirates, Rays Complete Chris Archer Blockbuster

Pirates Get: RHP Chris Archer (3-5, 4.31 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 102/31 K/BB, Age 29)
Rays Get: OF Austin Meadows (5 HR, .292/.327/.468, 4 SB, 110 wRC+, Age 23)
RHP Tyler Glasnow (1-2, 4.34 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 72/34 K/BB, Age 24)
Player to be named later

After years of rumors that he would be moved, the Rays finally shipped star pitcher Chris Archer north to Pittsburgh. It's an especially big day for Pittsburgh, who is usually on the other end of deals like this (see Gerrit Cole, Andrew McCutchen, Tony Watson, Neil Walker, Mark Melancon, you get it). This deal certainly accomplishes a goal for both teams, and while it makes a bit more sense for Tampa than it does for Pittsburgh, in my opinion, both teams come out winners.

The Pirates were sitting at 40-48 coming off their fifth straight loss on July 7th, but they have turned it around to go 15-4 since then and now sit at 55-52, just 3.5 games back of the Diamondbacks for the second Wild Card. In adding star pitcher Chris Archer, ownership sent a clear message to the team; we believe in you, and let's win now. Of course, the cost was steep, perhaps too steep, but the reality is that Archer does change the dynamic of this team. It's unclear who draws the short straw in the current rotation, though it looks like it will be Joe Musgrove or Nick Kingham, with Archer settling in at the top with Ivan Nova, Jameson Taillon, and Trevor Williams. Archer himself is a bit of a mixed bag. I'm not backtracking on the statement that he changes the dynamic of the team: his vibrant personality, high strikeout totals, partial track record of success, and team-friendly contract (his options run through 2021 and total just $24 million for 2019-2021) provide a big jolt to the Pirates. However, when you look at the numbers, Archer is more of a mid-rotation starter than an ace. From 2013-2015, he was great, even ace-like, going 31-29 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 89 starts, even striking out 252 batters (29%) in 2015. In 2016, his ERA jumped to 4.02 but he still struck out 233 batters (27.4%), then it was more of the same in 2017, when his ERA was 4.07 and he struck out 249 (29.2%). This year, his ERA is up to 4.31 and his strikeout rate is down to 24.7%, and at this point I think he is who he has been over the past three seasons rather than the previous three seasons from 2013-2015. Still, 24.7% is a high strikeout rate, and when you strike out guys at that rate while keeping your walks down like Archer does, you're not likely to see your ERA jump much higher than the 4.31 it currently sits at. In the end, they probably gave up too much, but it's a deal whose message is perhaps more important than its personnel. For his career, the Raleigh-area native is 54-68 with a 3.69 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 1146/347 strikeout to walk ratio (25.7% to 7.8%) over 1063 innings, all with the Rays.

Meanwhile, the Rays have to be very happy with the value they pulled out of Archer, and this trade is very on-brand for the team. They somehow always manage to rebuild without tanking, which is very rare for small market teams, and it looks like they'll be ready to contend as soon as 2019. With Jake Bauers, Willy Adames, Christian Arroyo, Blake Snell, and a hoard of young pitchers just breaking into the majors, a core is forming and it could surprise everyone. Because of this, the Rays brought back two young, post-hype players who are already in the majors and can contribute immediately, and I think that's great for them. I'll start with Austin Meadows, who was drafted ninth overall out of high school outside Atlanta in 2013. It's been a bumpy road since then, as he has spent significant time on the disabled list in every season except 2015, but he is finally healthy this year and the results have been great. In 49 games with the Pirates, he is slashing .292/.327/.468 with five home runs and four stolen bases, good for a very respectable 110 wRC+. I think that's about indicative of his true talent, and over a full season, that's borderline All Star caliber. If he continues to stay healthy and get more time on the field under his belt, it's not hard to envision him as a 20/20 player, and it's easy to forget he just turned 23 in May. Kevin Kiermaier, Tommy Pham, and Carlos Gomez have the three starting outfield spots for now, but Gomez doesn't seem like much of a road block and Meadows should get plenty of playing time. Meanwhile, Tyler Glasnow was at one time one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, and for good reason; to date, over 118 minor league games (117 starts), his performance record looks like this: 45-21, 2.02 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 785/278 K/BB (33% to 11.7%) over 593.1 innings. However, his stock is down after years of not being able to translate that success to the majors. His extended look in 2017 was especially ugly, as he went 2-7 with a 7.69 ERA, a 2.02 WHIP, and a 56/44 strikeout to walk ratio (18.4% to 14.4%) over 62 innings, his lack of command really hurting him. They shifted him to the bullpen this year and the results have been moderately better: 4.34 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 72/34 K/BB (29.6% to 14%), the strikeout rate noticeably up but the lack of command still keeping him from being a true difference maker. He turns just 25 in a few weeks and a change of scenery should do him good, and if the Rays can get his command under control (no pun intended) then his ceiling is not too far off from Chris Archer. For his career, he is 3-11 with a 5.79 ERA, a 1.71 WHIP, and a 152/91 strikeout to walk ratio (23.3% to 13.9%) over 141.1 innings. Additionally, don't discount the player to be named later, as he is reportedly supposed to be a more than just a throw in.

Monday, July 30, 2018

Blue Jays, Astros Swap Relief Aces

Astros Get: RHP Roberto Osuna (0-0, 2.93 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 13/1 K/BB, Age 23)
Blue Jays Get: RHP Ken Giles (0-2, 4.99 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 31/3 K/BB, Age 27)
RHP David Paulino (0-0, 4.67 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 33/6 K/BB at GCL and AAA, Age 24)
RHP Hector Perez (3-4, 3.73 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 101/48 K/BB at High A and AA, Age 22)

The Blue Jays and Astros swapped two of the game's better relievers, and I have to say I think the Blue Jays come out on top of this one. Osuna is more consistent than Giles, but when he's at his best, Giles can be just as good, and unlike Osuna, he does not have a domestic abuse suspension on his record. With the two minor league arms coming along with Giles, it's hard to see the Jays as anything but clear winners here.

New Astros relief ace Roberto Osuna is a controversial player, and for good reason. Back in May, he was suspended 75 games for domestic violence, and his court date is set for Wednesday. Astros GM Jeff Luhnow stated that the front office believes he "...is remorseful, has willfully complied with all consequences related to his past behavior, has proactively engaged in counseling, and will fully comply with our zero tolerance policy related to abuse of any kind..." From the outside, it's tough to say whether the Astros truly believe Osuna has grown from the incident or whether they're just releasing the statement to cover themselves, so I'll let you make of it what you want to. On to baseball analysis: when he's on the field, Osuna is as good a reliever as anybody in the game, save for maybe Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel. He broke into the majors at just 20 years old in 2015 as the first player ever born in 1995, immediately contributing with a 2.58 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP over 68 appearances, striking out 75 and walking just 16 in 69.2 innings. His numbers were very similar in 2016, and while his ERA jumped to 3.38 in 2017, he put up a career-best 83/9 strikeout to walk ratio (33.3% to 3.6%) in 64 innings. In 15 appearances before his suspension this year, he had a 2.93 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 13/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 15.1 innings, i.e. more of the same. What sets Osuna apart from other elite relievers is his consistency, and that is something the Astros have not gotten from their bullpen. Along with newly acquired Ryan Pressly, he'll hope to jump start the bullpen, which also includes Chris Devenski, Tony Sipp, Will Harris, Joe Smith, and Hector Rondon as big names. He's under team control for 2018, 2019, and 2020, so it's not just a rental. For his career, the Mexico native has a 2.87 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 253/40 strikeout to walk ratio (29% to 4.6%) over 223 innings.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays did a fantastic job here, simultaneously ridding themselves of a domestic abuser and picking up a nearly as good major league arm plus two prospects. Ken Giles, like Osuna, is under team control for 2018, 2019, and 2020, and when he's at his best, he's as good. Back in 2015, he posted a 1.80 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 69 appearances for the Astros, striking out 87 and walking 25 in 70 innings. In 2017, he had a 2.30 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an 83/21 strikeout to walk ratio (33.6% to 8.5%) in 62.2 innings. However, those were the peaks, and in 2016, his ERA sat at 4.11 (though 102 strikeouts put his K rate at 35.7%), and this year, he has been inconsistent enough to earn a demotion to AAA Fresno. Through 34 appearances with the Astros, he has a 4.99 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 31/3 strikeout to walk ratio (24% to 2.3%) over 30.2 innings, the uptick in earned runs coming from increased hittability. Though his strikeouts are down a little, it's nice to see the low walk rate as well, and hopefully the BABIP gods (his is .366 this year) will work more in his favor in Toronto with Kevin Pillar out there catching all those fly balls. For his career, the Albuquerque native has a 2.72 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 367/85 strikeout to walk ratio (32.6% to 7.5%) over 274.2 innings. David Paulino is very well known to prospect enthusiasts at this point, pushing his way to being ranked the 38th best prospect in all of baseball prior to the 2017 season by my favorite prospect evaluator, John Sickels at Minor League Ball. However, his stock tumbled that year as he pitched in just nine professional games (three at AAA Fresno, six in the majors), missing much of the season to a PED suspension and then ending his season early with elbow surgery. He missed much of this season recovering from that surgery but has managed to pitch in just seven games, with three coming in rehab work in the Gulf Coast League and four coming with AAA Fresno (5.50 ERA, 23/5 K/BB in 18 innings). The 6'7" right hander has starter quality stuff and is talented enough to profile near the top of a major league rotation, but the multitude of injuries he has suffered throughout his career make it look more and more likely he'll have to switch to the bullpen in order to stay healthy. He's 24 and in AAA, so he's just about major league ready and just needs to prove he can stay on the mound. In nine career MLB games (seven starts) from 2016-2017, the Dominican is 2-1 with a 6.25 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 36/10 strikeout to walk ratio (22.9% to 6.4%) over 36 innings. Lastly, Hector Perez has a lower ceiling but is a much safer bet than Paulino. The 6'3" righty has been brought along slowly in the Astros organization but he's pitching as well as ever this year. Starting in High A Buies Creek, he went 3-3 with a 3.84 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and an 83/40 strikeout to walk ratio in 72.2 innings, showing great stuff but the need for better command. Recently promoted to AA Corpus Christi, he hasn't missed a beat, posting a 3.24 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an 18/8 strikeout to walk ratio in 16.2 innings. At every level, his command problems look like they will finally catch up to him with his next promotion, but so far they haven't and now that he's in AA, his consistent performance makes him look like he could be a fine #3 or #4 starter with the possibility for more. He just turned 22 in June.

Thursday, July 19, 2018

Indians Upgrade Bullpen with Hand, Padres Add Top Prospect Mejia

Indians get: LHP Brad Hand (2-4, 3.05 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 65/15 K/BB, Age 28)
RHP Adam Cimber (3-5, 3.17 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 51/10 K/BB, Age 27)
Padres get: C/IF/OF Francisco Mejia (0 HR, .000/.500/.000, 0 SB, 117 wRC+, Age 22)

Lefty Brad Hand has been on the trade block for a while now, and the Padres finally let him (and Aaron Cimber) go over to Cleveland in exchange for top prospect Francisco Mejia. The Indians' bullpen is far under-performing, with its 5.28 ERA ranking second to last in baseball just one year after its 2.89 ERA led all of baseball. Hand, who has been one of the best left handers in baseball over the past three seasons, should change that. Though he hasn't quite been pitching to his 2017 levels (2.16 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 104/20 K/BB), his 3.05 ERA this year and 1.08 WHIP are very respectable and at this point, he has proven to be consistently well above average, something few relievers can do. Joining Cody Allen and Andrew Miller at the back of that bullpen will once again give the Indians something to be proud of in the later innings. As a huge bonus, Hand is under contract through the 2020 season, being owed just $6.5 million in 2019 and $7 million in 2020. He has a $10 million option in 2021 as well, which is very affordable if he continues to perform to this level. Meanwhile, perhaps submarining righty Adam Cimber will get lost in this trade, but he shouldn't be. The 27 year old rookie has matched Hand nearly pitch for pitch this season, doing so from an extreme submarine delivery. He's old for a rookie, having been drafted back in 2013 as a senior out of the University of San Francisco, but he should be ale to shore up the middle innings for quite a few years.

This isn't your typical trade because in exchange for their controllable star and an extra piece, the Padres are only getting one prospect back. That prospect happens to be nationally-recognized catcher Francisco Mejia, but it's still just one prospect. You can look at it in two ways. From one perspective, Padres were only able to get one prospect, and even though he is one of the better prospects in the game, they're putting all their eggs in one basket while trading away a controllable star. If you look at it another way, the Padres were able to get a prospect many would view as "untouchable," a potential superstar who could headline a package for just about anyone in baseball, without trading away a true superstar of their own. To me, it all comes down to whether the Padres think he can catch. There's few questions about the bat; he slashed .297/.346/.490 with 14 home runs at AA Akron in 2017, and though he started slow this year, he has built his slash line up .279/.328/.426 with seven home runs for AAA Columbus. In fact, he was hitting just .178/.236/.276 with three total home runs as late as May 24th, but he has caught fire since then, including a .455/.476/.717 slash line in June. He profiles as a guy with middling home run power, perhaps 15-20 per season, while maintaining a high batting average and a decent on-base percentage. That's not necessary the most exciting offensive package, but if he can stick behind the plate, he suddenly ends up in the same realm as J.T. Realmuto and Gary Sanchez. However, if his mediocre receiving skills cause him to move to third base or the outfield, something he doesn't want to do, he becomes more of a decent regular who can put up 2.0-3.0 fWAR per season. I haven't watched enough of Mejia to be able to say whether I think he can stick behind the plate, but I can tell you this; if you like his chances back there, it's a great trade, but if you don't, you can't help but be just a little disappointed that he's all you got for Hand. We'll have to see.

Dodgers Land Manny Machado

Dodgers get: SS Manny Machado (24 HR, .315/.387/.575, 8 SB, 156 wRC+, Age 26)
Orioles get: 2B Breyvic Valera (0 HR, .172/.273/.172, 0 SB, 34 wRC+, Age 26)
OF Yusniel Diaz (6 HR, .314/.428/.477, 8 SB, 147 wRC+ at AA, Age 21)
RHP Dean Kremer (6-3, 3.03 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 125/29 K/BB at High A and AA, Age 22)
3B Rylan Bannon (20 HR, .296/.402/.559, 4 SB, 159 wRC+ at High A, Age 22)
RHP Zach Pop (1-2, 1.04 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 47/13 K/BB at Class A and High A, Age 21)

The Orioles are an absolute joke this season at 28-69 heading into the All Star Break, a full 39.5 games back of the Red Sox in the AL East. The one bright spot, and I mean the one, lone, single bright spot has been Manny Machado, who has been playing like the perennial All Star he always has been but who also is a free agent after the season. When you're 39.5 games back in your division and 30 games back of the second wild card spot, the season is over, and you might as well get some value out of Machado while you can. Meanwhile, Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager went down with an elbow injury at the end of April and he won't play again this year. Given LA's prospect depth, that makes them the perfect landing spot for a rental infielder like Machado, who will reportedly see time at both shortstop and third base for the remainder of the season. Through 96 games with the O's this year, he's slashing .315/.387/.575 with 24 home runs, good for a 156 wRC+ and 3.8 fWAR. That is a game changing stat line regardless of defensive value, and when you can play a terrific third base and a very decent shortstop to go along with it, that's team-changing. The one knock on Machado has been his very sharp home/road split; playing 48 games apiece, he is slashing .360/.448/.691 with 17 home runs at home and .274/.329/.468 with seven home runs on the road. His strikeout to walk ratios are also drastically different: 21/28 at home and 30/17 on the road. His plate discipline has always been at least somewhat better at home, so maybe he just like's the batters' eye? My guess is most of it is dumb luck and the random nature of statistics in small(ish) sample sizes. While Camden Yards is definitely a hitters' park, its effects aren't that drastic. He'll continue to hit great out west, but maybe his wOBA drops by .010 or .020 or so.

Meanwhile, the Orioles got an array of prospects, but none are more valuable than 21 year old outfielder Yusniel Diaz, around whom the deal is centered. Diaz is a Cuban signee in his third pro season, and he's playing his best baseball by slashing .314/.428/.477 with six home runs and a 39/41 strikeout to walk ratio in 59 games at AA Tulsa. Diaz will never get up into that 20-30 home run range, even in Baltimore, but he's a great athlete that should hit around 15-20 home runs per season in Camden while also getting on base and playing good defense. He shows great plate discipline and sprays line drives around the park, and though his base running could use some work (he has been caught stealing 30 times in 54 attempts in the minor leagues), he's fast. On defense, he could be above average at the outfield corners or hold his own in center field, and he has the upside of a starting outfielder who could get on base at a clip near .400 with that moderate power and good defense. Breyvic Valera is the only one of the quintet to have played in the majors, appearing in five games for the Cardinals in 2017 and 20 more for the Dodgers this year. He hasn't been great in either trial, slashing .154/.250/.154 with no extra base hits for his career, but he's an established minor league bat that should be able to stick as a utility infielder once he translates his success to the majors. In 56 games at AAA Oklahoma City this year, he's hitting a much better .284/.350/.433 with six home runs and a nice 20/21 strikeout to walk ratio. He's already 26, but he should be able to help out off the bench. Right handed pitcher Dean Kremer has taken very well to his transition to full-time starting. In 16 starts with High A Rancho Cucamonga in the very hitter-friendly California League, he went 5-3 with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP,  striking out 114 and walking 26 in 79 innings. Those are fantastic numbers for that league. Upon being promoted to AA Tulsa, he dominated Midland (A's AA) in his first start, tossing seven shutout innings on three hits, three walks, and eleven strikeouts. He was somewhat buried in a deep Dodgers farm system, but in a much more shallow Baltimore system, he has a chance to push his way to the majors as a starting pitcher. You may remember him from the World Baseball Classic, where the Israeli citizen pitched for Team Israel during its improbable run. Third baseman Rylan Bannon has done nothing but hit since being drafted in the eighth round out of Xavier in 2017, slashing .336/.425/.591 in the rookie-level Pioneer League last year before skipping straight to High A Rancho Cucamonga this year. Through 89 games, he is slashing .296/.402/.559 with 20 home runs and a 103/59 strikeout to walk ratio, great numbers even when you account for the boost he's getting from the Cal League. Those numbers are a little inflated and he probably ends up an average hitter at the major league level, though his 14.6% walk rate will really help him maintain value as a guy who can get on base. If he cuts down his strikeouts, he has an outside shot at starting in the Orioles infield down the road. Right hander Zach Pop is a relief prospect that has been exceptional since the Dodgers "popped" him in the seventh round of the 2017 draft out of the University of Kentucky, ranking 135th on my pre-draft list. He was used exclusively as a reliever during his junior year of college, and he took a big step forward when the Dodgers cleaned up his command. Beginning at Class A Great Lakes, he posted a 2.20 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over eleven appearances, striking out 24 and walking seven in 16.1 innings. When he earned the promotion to High A Rancho Cucamonga in that hitter-friendly Cal League, he seemed to reach another gear, posting a 0.33 ERA, a 0.70 WHIP, and a 23/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings. He throws hard, hitting the upper 90's at times, and his slider ranges from loopy meatball to un-hittable. He projects as a middle relief type or set-up man. Overall, the package obviously centers on Diaz and whether he can successfully become an impact player in Baltimore, but there is a lot of depth behind him and at least one or two of the others will likely end up making an impact down the road.

Wednesday, July 18, 2018

2018 First "Half" Awards

AL MVP: Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels)
25 HR, .310/.454/.606, 15 SB, 187 wRC+, 6.5 fWAR in 97 games
When three American League players finished the first half with exactly 6.5 fWAR, it's going to be a narrow race, and I picked Trout just a hair ahead of Mookie Betts and Jose Ramirez. While Betts has hit at a better rate (202 wRC+ to Trout's 187 and Ramirez' 174), Trout has played 19 more games than Betts, and I have to take that into account that Trout has played in every single game for the 49-48 Angels. He has also been incredible consistent, never posting an OPS below 1.064 in any of the three full months (April, May, June) because his on-base percentage never dipped below .427 and his slugging percentage never fell below .593. Oh yeah, and he has walked more (84) than he has struck out (83), swiped 15 bases in 16 attempts, and played good defense in center field. Trout is the best player since at least Barry Bonds, and he's as good as ever in 2018.

Runner up: Mookie Betts (23 HR, .359/.448/.691, 18 SB, 202 wRC+, 6.5 fWAR)
Honorable mentions: Jose Ramirez (6.5 fWAR), Francisco Lindor (5.4 fWAR), Andrelton Simmons (4.0 fWAR)

NL MVP: Nolan Arenado (Colorado Rockies)
23 HR, .312/.395/.586, 2 SB, 145 wRC+, 4.1 fWAR in 90 games
I have been resistant to giving Arenado the MVP award in any season because his numbers have been more in line with those of others rather than ahead of them, and a Rockies MVP candidate really should be blowing his competition out of the water offensively. Well this year, he is, with his .412 wOBA (not park adjusted) second only to defensive butcher Jesus Aguilar's .414 in the National League, helping his 145 wRC+ (park adjusted, Coors Field effect mitigated) good for fifth behind Aguilar (159), Eugenio Suarez (158), Freddie Freeman (150), and Paul Goldschmidt (146). (On a side note, who the heck thought those two would be in first and second place?). Throw in Arenado's elite defense, and you have an MVP. He is currently setting career highs in all of his rate stats, including batting average (.312), on-base percentage (.395), slugging percentage (.586), wOBA (.412), wRC+ (145), walk rate (12.4%), and also strikeout rate (18.2%, not that that one is a good thing). He's really having a career year, and like Trout, he hasn't really slumped at all. The one thing I notice is that his home/road splits are even more drastic than you'd expect, as he is slashing .370/.447/.694 with 14 home runs in 46 games at Coors and .253/.343/.476 with nine home runs in 44 games on the road. The wRC+, which is not effected by Coors, is then 175 at home and 115 on the road.

Runner up: Jacob deGrom (5-4, 1.68 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 149/30 K/BB in 123.1 IP)
Honorable mentions: Max Scherzer (2.41 ERA), Aaron Nola (2.30 ERA), Scooter Gennett (3.3 fWAR)

AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander (Houston Astros)
9-5, 2.29 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 172/24 K/BB in 137.2 innings
Even at 35, Justin Verlander is at the top of his game, likely solidifying his Hall of Fame case with his performance this season. He's near the top of all the AL leaderboards this year, including ERA (4th), WHIP (1st), strikeouts (4th), strikeout to walk ratio (2nd), innings (1st), and pitching fWAR (3rd). While he has scuffled just a bit in his last few starts, he did go on a tear from April 9th to June 2nd where he pitched at least six innings in each of his eleven starts and gave up no more than two runs, earned or unearned. At the end of May, his ERA sat at 1.11 and his WHIP at 0.72, and while those numbers have risen to 2.29 and 0.84, respectively, and it's not like he has even been bad since then; his 4.11 ERA and 1.05 WHIP are pretty respectable for a "slump," or as I like to call it in this case, a regression. He's going up against tough opponents in the AL West including the surprisingly good Mariners and A's as well as the just-hanging-in-there Angels.

Runner up: Chris Sale (10-4, 2.23 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 188/31 K/BB in 129 IP)
Honorable mentions: Trevor Bauer (2.24 ERA), Gerrit Cole (2.52 ERA), Luis Severino (2.31 ERA)

NL Cy Young: Jacob deGrom (New York Mets)
5-4, 1.68 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 149/30 K/BB in 123.1 innings
It's easy to forget about him, as he pitches for the forgettable Mets, but deGrom is quietly shutting down opponents every time he steps on the mound. His 1.68 ERA is first in major league baseball by a long shot, and if you add in his three unearned runs, his 1.90 RA9 still crushes everybody else's ERA. He has allowed more than three runs in a game just once, when he allowed four on April 10th, and has allowed more than one earned run in just five of his 19 starts. That means in 14 out of 19 starts, he limited the opposition to zero or one earned runs, and he still had just a 4.05 ERA in those other five starts, a.k.a. his five worst starts of the season. Nobody has put his team in a better position to win game in and game out than deGrom, and it really takes that much to go 5-4 with that Mets offense behind you.

Runner up: Max Scherzer (12-5, 2.41 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 182/34 K/BB in 134.2 IP)
Honorable mentions: Aaron Nola (2.30 ERA), Miles Mikolas (2.79 ERA), Kyle Freeland (3.11 ERA)

AL Rookie of the Year: Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Angels)
7 HR, .283/.365/.522, 2 SB, 145 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR in 54 games
4-1, 3.10 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 61/20 K/BB in 49.1 innings
Ohtani was supposed to run away with this award after a hot start to the season, but the injury makes it a race. With Gleyber Torres hurt as well, Ohtani is able to hold onto his spot into the All Star Break. At the plate, his .283/.365/.522 line is downright incredible for a rookie that is also pitching, and if he had enough plate appearances, his 145 wRC+ would rank 11th in the American League. Combine that with a borderline ace-like performance on the mound on a per-inning basis, one in which he has a 3.10 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over nine starts, and you have something that's literally un-heard of. Unfortunately, he may not pitch again this season, but that means he'll get more plate appearances to beef up his offensive numbers. Among rookies, his 2.2 combined fWAR easily bests Torres' 1.6 for the most in the American League, but even if they were close, I'd still give it to Ohtani for the sheer difficulty of what he is doing.

Runner up: Gleyber Torres (15 HR, .294/.350/.555/ 2 SB, 143 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR)
Honorable mentions: Jake Bauers (1.5 fWAR), Miguel Andujar (1.1 fWAR), Lou Trivino (1.22 ERA)

NL Rookie of the Year: Jack Flaherty (St. Louis Cardinals)
3-4, 3.24 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 87/24 K/BB in 75 innings
This is a crowded NL Rookie of the Year field, with lots of players holding their own but nobody really standing out yet. I think that will change once Juan Soto catches up to everyone else from a volume of work perspective, but for now, we'll go with Jack Flaherty, who is pitching like a veteran in St. Louis. Through 14 starts he has a 3.24 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an 87/24 strikeout to walk ratio, getting hit around a few times but also tossing some absolute gems. On May 20th, against the surprisingly good Phillies, he allowed one run on just two hits and one walk while striking out 13 in 7.2 innings. On June 22nd, against another good team, the Brewers, he allowed one run again, this time on just one hit, two walks, and 13 strikeouts over seven innings. You don't expect rookies to be consistent, and while Flaherty hasn't been an exception on that front, few can touch him when he's at his best.

Runner up: Brian Anderson (8 HR, .288/.363/.429, 2 SB, 119 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR)
Honorable mentions: Juan Soto (1.5 fWAR), Joey Lucchesi (3.34 ERA), Tyler Mahle (4.02 ERA)


Tuesday, July 17, 2018

2018 Draft Review: San Francisco Giants

First 5 rounds: Joey Bart (1-2), Sean Hjelle (2-45), Jake Wong (3-80), Blake Rivera (4-106), Keaton Winn (5-136)
Also notable: Patrick Hilson (6-166), David Villar (11-316), Matt Frisbee (15-436)

Although Pablo Sandoval hit the most unfortunate walk-off home run in Giants history to knock them out of getting the first overall pick, the Giants still got away with a fantastic selection in Joey Bart second overall. However, I think the rest of the draft is just decent, and while Bart is great, the farm system won't get as much of a jolt as perhaps it could have. This was a pitching-heavy draft that saw them take arms with four straight picks after the Bart selection, and many of the pitchers are more about upside than floor. Interesting side note: the Giants didn't draft a single left handed hitter or thrower until Bryce Tucker in the 14th round, then went until the Jacob Lopez in the 26th round before they drafted another (not counting switch hitting, right handed throwing 20th rounder Jett Manning).

1-2: C Joey Bart (my rank: 4)
I had Brady Singer and Matthew Liberatore ranked ahead of Bart, but not by much, and I absolutely won't fault the Giants for taking a guy with both an exceptional bat and high defensive value. The last time the Giants took a performing college catcher with a high pick, Florida State's Buster Posey turned out alright and caught for three World Series championships. Joey Bart, who like Posey grew up in Georgia, had a huge junior season at Georgia Tech, slashing .359/.471/.632 with 16 home runs and a 56/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. He showed huge raw power with some long, long home runs, and he also cut his strikeout rate from 24% as a sophomore to 20.6% as a junior while bumping up his walk rate from 7.7% to 15.1%. The power is great, but when he coupled it with that improved plate discipline that had been a major sticking point for him, it shot him up draft boards. The strikeout rate is still high and is probably his biggest weakness, and it could be drawn from the fact that he is fairly slow in getting his hands going. Once they're going though, it's a clean swing with plenty of loft and power. On defense, he has evolved from a fringy receiver to one who could not only stick behind the plate but excel there, showing a great arm, good receiving and blocking skills, and all of the leadership qualities and intangibles that come with being a catcher. If he can cut his strikeout rates further, he could be the next Buster Posey. He signed for just over $7 million, coming in at $469,600 below slot. He began his pro career in the rookie level Arizona League, where he slashed .261/.320/.391 with a 7/1 strikeout to walk ratio over six games, but he really took off upon a promotion to the short season Northwest League, slashing .310/.356/.857 with seven home runs and a 10/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 10 games.

2-45: RHP Sean Hjelle (my rank: 46)
Hjelle (pronounced "jelly") was considered a fringe-first round pick at the outset of the season, and while he didn't take any steps backward, he fell back a few spots in the draft because he didn't really take a step forward either. The Kentucky ace, finished his junior year 7-4 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, striking out 91 and walking 22 in 99 innings for the Wildcats. The first thing you notice about Hjelle is his size; at 6'11", he'll tie Jon Rauch for the tallest player in major league history if he gets that far, and at just 225 pounds, he's a string bean. Despite his size, he's very athletic and coordinated, and he commands his pitches well too. The stuff is nothing really special on its own, as his fastball sits in the low 90's, the curveball shows good break and sharpness, and the changeup is just good, but it all plays up because it seems like he's letting go of the ball right in front of you with those long arms. His height also creates good downhill plane, and because he can command it all, he gets his share of swings and misses. He projects as a #4 starter, and while there is always the durability risk for skyscrapers like Hjelle, he has been durable so far and is more like Chris Young than Randy Johnson in that he gets by on pitchability rather than stuff. He signed for $1.5 million, which is $87,600 below slot, and he has allowed one run on four hits and no walks through four innings in the Northwest League, striking out two.

3-80: RHP Jake Wong (my rank: 101)
Wong is a right handed pitcher out of Grand Canyon University who had a breakout year this year, going 9-3 with a 2.81 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an 88/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings. That came on the heels of a very strong Cape Cod League performance, albeit as a reliever, where he posted a 2.66 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, and a 22/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 innings last summer. The 6'2" hurler sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, though the rest of his game needs work. His slider is good when it's on but it can also flatten out at times, and his changeup is also good-not-great. While a lot of guys can make an arsenal like that play up with other factors, Wong lacks deception and has average command, leading me to think he'd be better off in the bullpen where his fastball could sit in the mid 90's and his slider could sharpen. If developed right, though, he does have mid-rotation upside. He signed for $850,000, which is $111,300 above slot, and he has allowed five runs (four earned) on seven hits, one walk, and seven strikeouts through 5.1 innings in the Northwest League.

4-106: RHP Blake Rivera (unranked)
Rivera was the last one out of my rankings, coming in at #111 before I cut the list off at 110. I couldn't find any video on him either before or after the draft, but he's a 6'4" right handed pitcher out of Wallace State Community College in Alabama, the same school that produced Craig Kimbrel. Rivera has high upside, as he throws his fastball in the low 90's while also showing a very good curveball. His changeup is a bit behind, as is his control, but he does have a smooth delivery and scouts think they can improve that control. There is plenty of arm strength here and if he can get more consistent, he does have a chance to start. He signed for $800,000, which is $271,800 over slot, and he has allowed two runs (one earned) on one hit and three walks over 3.1 innings in the Northwest League, striking out three.

Others: 5th rounder Keaton Winn is another 6'4" JuCo right handed pitcher, coming from Iowa Western Community College. He doesn't throw quite as hard as Rivera, sitting closer to 90 with his running fastball, and his slider has good break down and away from righties. While his stuff isn't quite as electric as Rivera's, he does have a better chance to start with a fairly easy delivery, though he'll have to add a changeup to do so. 6th rounder Patrick Hilson is an outfielder from high school out in Jonesboro, Arkansas, showing some athleticism and power despite being just 5'10". He's understandably raw, coming from a less traditional baseball area in the Mississippi Delta, but he has some upside. 11th rounder David Villar got better and better with each of his three seasons at the University of South Florida, finishing it off this year by slashing .374/.463/.648 with 12 home runs and a 58/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games. While he features big power and plenty of loud contact from the right side of the plate, he also strikes out a fair amount (21.5% this year), and he'll have to prove he can translate his success to the pros. As of now, he's a third baseman, and he has a shot at sticking there. If he can make the necessary adjustments at the plate and acclimate his bat to pro pitching, he could be a steal in the eleventh round. 15th rounder Matt Frisbee will be great at selling jerseys if he makes it to the majors (though probably not as great as Seth Beer or Travis Swaggerty), coming from UNC-Greensboro. This year, he went 10-2 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, striking out 116 and walking just 23 in 91 innings for a surprisingly good Spartans team. The 6'5" righty throws in the low to mid 90's but can hit 97 in short spurts and still command it, though he'll need to work on his secondaries to cut it in pro ball. He's likely a reliever.

Monday, July 16, 2018

2018 Draft Review: San Diego Padres

First 5 rounds: Ryan Weathers (1-7), Xavier Edwards (CBA-38), Grant Little (CBB-74), Owen Miller (3-84), Dylan Coleman (4-111), Dwanya Williams-Sutton (5-141)
Also notable: Jawuan Harris (7-201), Luke Becker (9-261), Sean Guilbe (12-351)

Since they already have one of the best farm systems in baseball, the Padres went for upside here to see if they can add a few more names to their list of high level prospects. They leaned a little bit more on hitters but not much, and while I think they made some reaches, they added a lot of talent. Overall, from a team with a top ten pick as well as two competitive balance picks, I think the haul is a little light, but as an upside-oriented draft, only a couple players have to be successful for it to be a successful draft.

1-7: LHP Ryan Weathers (my rank: 18)
Weathers is a great pitcher, no doubt, and definitely a first round talent, so it's hard to be negative here but there were definitely high school pitchers, even a high school lefty (Matthew Liberatore) available that I liked better. Weathers is a 6'1" lefty out of Loretto High School in rural Tennessee, about 90 miles southwest of Nashville. The son of 19 year MLB veteran David Weathers, Ryan is arguably the safest bet among all high school pitchers. Though he lacks physical projection, he's very good right now, throwing a low 90's fastball, a curveball with inconsistent break but good power, and a solid changeup, all of which he commands well. Really, aside from acclimating to higher levels and better hitters, all that he has to do to end up a major league starter is maintain his command and get more consistent with his curveball, which is saying a lot for a high schooler. His lack of a "to-do" list might also give him time to tinker with adding a slider and improving his changeup further. I like him, but those that are high on him really, really like him, and he has a good chance to move through the minors quickly by high school standards and be a mid-rotation starter for a long time, though his chances of becoming an ace are lower. He signed for just over $5.2 million, right at slot.

CBA-38: SS Xavier Edwards (my rank: 26)
Edwards is a high school shortstop from South Florida, one with speed and the ability to switch hit. Despite being a switch hitter, he shows great feel for the barrel and should post high batting averages and on-base percentages at the major league level. The swing is cleaner from the right side and will require some refinements on the left, but he is wiry and strong enough to hit for some power, though 20 homer seasons won't be in the books. With that exceptional speed, he will be able to remain a shortstop, though likely not a Gold Glove caliber one. At best, he could be a leadoff man in San Diego. He signed for $2.6 million, which is $721,700 above slot, and he is slashing .423/.515/.423 with no extra base hits but six stolen bases and a 4/6 strikeout to walk ratio through seven games in the rookie level Arizona League.

CBB-74: OF Grant Little (unranked)
Little was the first of eleven players drafted off an exceptional Texas Tech team this year, as he was draft eligible as a sophomore and slashed .370/.462/.642 with 12 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 38/40 strikeout to walk ratio in 65 games. He's an average sized hitter (6'1", 185 lbs), but he generates power through a quick, efficient swing and by gaining ground with his load, something I always like to see. Defensively, his position is kind of up in the air, as he could definitely play left field but that would put a lot of pressure on his bat. He may be able to handle center, and second base is also an option. No matter where he plays, his bat will have to carry him, but he may have just enough bat to profile as a 20 homer, .350 on-base percentage guy and start. He signed for $800,000, which is $12,200 below slot, and he's slashing .293/.340/.317 with three stolen bases and a 5/3 strikeout to walk ratio through ten games in the short season Northwest League.

3-84: SS Owen Miller (unranked)
Miller started for three years at Illinois State, playing well as a freshman (.328/.368/.498) and as a sophomore (.325/.351/.498) before breaking out as a junior, slashing .384/.433/.537 with six home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 23/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 52 games. He generates his moderate power from a fairly long swing which will have to be shortened in pro ball, though a low 9.1% strikeout rate this year will help him and it may not need to be shortened too much as long as he keeps catching up to better and better pitching. He doesn't walk much, which isn't really a problem now while he's hitting for power but might become one if he takes more of a contact-oriented approach, and with his speed he could steal a few bases. Defensively, he has a chance to stick at shortstop but may ultimately be a second baseman. He signed for $500,000, which is $194,500 below slot, and he is slashing .336/.373/.448 with two home runs and a 15/4 strikeout to walk ratio through 29 games in the Northwest League.

4-111: RHP Dylan Coleman (my rank: 78)
Coleman is a college arm with great stuff but who doesn't always get the results you would think he'd get. He had his best year for Missouri State this year, going 10-2 with a 3.77 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 129/59 strikeout to walk ratio in 102.2 innings, striking out opponents in bunches but also allowing too many walks. He has an extremely quick arm and throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's with a great slider and a good curveball, but he struggles to repeat his delivery and has trouble locating his pitches consistently. He'll require a lot of work for a college arm, but the 6'6" righty has a high ceiling and could be a #2 starter. He signed for $500,000, which is $2,800 below slot and started off in the Northwest League, throwing six innings and allowing three runs (two earned) on six hits, two walks, and seven strikeouts before a promotion to Class A Fort Wayne. There, he has tossed 4.2 shutout innings on two hits, four walks, and four strikeouts.

5-141: OF Dwanya Williams-Sutton (unranked)
Williams-Sutton has the distinction of being the first Dwanya to ever play professional baseball, and he'll do so after a successful breakout season at East Carolina. As a junior this past year, he slashed .331/.477/.556 with seven home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 33/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 games, though he did miss some time with a wrist injury. He's a very athletic, very strong outfielder who may be able to profile in center field but can fall back on right field. He does have his share of swing and misses (19% strikeout rate) but he also walks a fair amount (14.4%) and offers plenty of upside if the Padres can help him channel his strength and athleticism into more power. He did struggle on the Cape (.148/.324/.185, 11/4 K/BB), and his bat may be a little bit behind that of other college hitters, but his ceiling is higher. To boot, he's young for his grade, having just turned 21 a few days ago. He signed for $350,000, which is $25,600 below slot, and he's slashing .262/.295/.429 with a home run and a 12/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games in the Northwest League.

Others: 7th rounder Jawuan Harris, even at just 5'9", is an athlete through and through, as he plays on the Rutgers baseball team and football team, going so far as to play both ways on the gridiron as a safety and a wide receiver. As you can guess, he's pretty raw, but he has excellent speed that should help him stay in center field. He has never quite gotten it going at the plate, finishing his junior year slashing .246/.375/.387 with a pair of home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 47/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games. He swings and misses a lot (26.7% strikeout rate this year), as you would expect, but he also draws a surprising number of walks (15.9%), and the Padres will bank on their being untapped potential obscured by his football focus. 9th rounder Luke Becker has been a steady contributor at Kentucky, where he finished his junior season slashing .286/.410/.466 with seven home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 45/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. He's a second baseman that uses an advanced approach at the plate (14.3% walk rate) to get on base and drive balls into the gaps, though he swings and misses a bit much for a player of that profile (17.4% strikeout rate). If he can hone his plate discipline just a bit further, which I think he can, he could stick as a utility infielder and get some shots at starting at second base. 12th rounder Sean Guilbe is a borderline top five rounds talent, but he slid to the 12th due to signability and cost the Padres $175,000 against their bonus pool for a total of a $300,000 bonus. He's a powerful third baseman out of high school in Reading, Pennsylvania, one who can drive the ball out of any park but who may struggle with contact at the next level.

Sunday, July 15, 2018

2018 Draft Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

First 5 rounds: J.T. Ginn (1-30), Michael Grove (2-68), John Rooney (3-104), Braydon Fisher (4-134), Devin Mann (5-164)
Also notable: Josh McLain (9-284), Deacon Liput (10-314), Niko Hulsizer (18-554), Tre Todd (21-644)

By failing to sign first round pick J.T. Ginn, the Dodgers ended up with a pretty light draft class at the top, though they did find some gems later on. I really like some of their later draft picks, and I think they did a good job of getting lots of different kinds of players. They grabbed pitchers with their first four picks but actually leaned a little more on hitters as the draft went on, and came together with a respectable draft class when they easily could have not done so with just two of the first 103 picks, especially when the first one didn't even sign.

1-30: RHP J.T. Ginn (my rank: 56)
I didn't like this pick at the time, but Ginn didn't sign anyways so it doesn't really matter. Instead, he'll head to Mississippi State, where he'll be eligible for the 2020 draft as a sophomore. He's one of two unsigned first round picks heading to Mississippi State, where he'll join the Braves' eighth overall pick, Carter Stewart. Ginn should be an immediate contributor there, as his fastball already sits in the mid 90's and his slider can be a plus pitch, and he commands both well enough. However, his delivery is fairly high effort and most see him as a reliever at the next level, where he could be a closer with that fastball/slider combination. High school relief prospects are an interesting group, as they don't have the ceilings of many other high schoolers but also can't move through the minors in the blink of an eye like college relievers, though Ginn does have an outside chance at being able to start if he can develop a changeup and prove he can maintain his velocity and command deep into games. He's very old for the class, having turned 19 in May.

2-68: RHP Michael Grove (unranked)
This Michael Grove pick kind of came out of nowhere, as he was unranked on MLB.com's top 200 and Fangraphs' top 130 (as well as their 52 "other" college pitchers), and came in at #271 on the Baseball America 500. That said, upon looking back over his scouting reports, this is good digging by the Dodgers. He was good as a freshman at West Virginia University in 2016 (2-4, 3.40 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 56/20 K/BB in 45 IP), then was pitching great during his sophomore year in 2017 (3-1, 2.87 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 61/15 K/BB in 47 IP) before blowing out his elbow and requiring Tommy John surgery halfway through the season. He hasn't pitched since, sitting out his entire junior year, but if I knew about him before the draft, I would have ranked him inside my top 100. Pre-injury, he sat in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and also had a very good diving slider, both of which he could command. Those are the building blocks for something more than just the back-end starter you think he'd be based on his rankings, and with the Dodgers he could end up a mid-rotation arm. He signed for over $1.2 million, coming in $312,500 above slot.

3-104: LHP John Rooney (unranked)
John Rooney was a known quantity throughout his college career despite struggling over his first two seasons at Hofstra University, posting ERA's above 5.00 in both his freshman and sophomore seasons, but he broke out in a huge way in 2018. In 13 starts, the big lefty went 8-2 with a 1.23 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a 108/27 strikeout to walk ratio in 95 innings, simply dominating the fairly low level of competition he was facing. Despite being a physically mature 6'5", he sits around 90 with his fastball, though he can dial it up if he needs to. His slider is good too, and he also has a decent changeup, giving him the chance to be a back-end starter at the major league level due to his command and ability to use his height to make his pitches play up. He held his own in the Cape Cod League (1-2, 4.38 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 29/15 K/BB in 37 IP), putting up numbers similar to what he could do in the majors. He signed for $563,240, which is $23,440 above slot.

4-134: RHP Braydon Fisher (my rank: 72)
As you can probably guess, I liked this pick, and I think Fisher has the chance to be the best arm to come out of this draft class for Los Angeles. The high schooler from outside of Houston has a live arm that produces fastballs in the low to mid 90's and a good slider, and at a skinny 6'4" and with a quick arm, he has lots of projection. However, he doesn't have much of a track record, as he didn't play on the mainstream showcase circuit during the summer, so he's a high risk pick. He's also very young for his class, as he's more than a year younger than J.T. Ginn and still doesn't turn 18 for another couple of weeks. He signed for $497,500, which was $95,200 above slot, and he has started off his pro career by allowing five runs (three earned) on six hits, four walks, and six strikeouts in five innings in the rookie level Arizona League.

5-164: 2B Devin Mann (unranked)
I saw Mann play when Louisville visited Virginia Tech this season, though he was mired in a slump at the time and did not look good, going hitless in ten at bats. He broke out of it not long afterwards, and he finished the season slashing .303/.446/.504 with seven home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a great 45/59 strikeout to walk ratio in 64 games. At 6'3" and 180 pounds with an athletic frame, he's built like a prototypical hitter, and he generates average power that could produce 15-20 home runs per season in the majors while getting on base at a great clip. You'd expect more power just by looking at him, but his swing lacks the bat speed and whip to produce it, at least from when I saw it during his slump. He swings and misses his fair share (14.8% strikeout rate) but it's not too high of a rate, though seeing him at his worst somewhat skews my perception of him. His 19.4% walk rate this year was excellent, and he could hit his way to the majors as a utility infielder. He signed for $272,500, which was $28,100 below slot, and he's already advancing quickly through the minors. He made a quick stop in the Arizona League, picking up a single in five at bats while adding a walk and striking out three times before being promoted to Class A Great Lakes in the full season Midwest League. Against advanced competition, he is slashing .242/.311/.318 with a home run, a pair of stolen bases, and a 13/6 strikeout to walk ratio in 18 games, a very credible performance at that level for someone barely a month past being drafted.

9-284: OF Josh McLain (unranked)
I also saw McLain play against Virginia Tech when he came with NC State. The Wolfpack leadoff man had a great season, slashing .344/.375/.458 with four home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 32/10 strikeout to walk ratio, capping off his third straight season with an OPS between .823 and .833. The Dodgers had also drafted him in the 14th round in 2017, but he didn't sign, and they got their man this year. He's a skinny guy, listed at 6'1" and 170 pounds, with pretty good speed and a very quick bat through the zone. Despite the low 3.4% walk rate, he has a very good eye within the zone and rarely swings and misses. His aggressive (and successful from a contact perspective) approach leads to that low walk rate, and it's not just weak contact. He sprays line drives all over the field and can generate lift when he wants to, and I think he'll continue to be successful with wood bats against pro pitching. Despite being a senior, he's very young for his grade with a September birthday where he'll turn 22. He signed for $7,500, which is $136,100 below slot, and after collecting two hits in six at bats in the Arizona League, he's holding his own at Class A Great Lakes, slashing .292/.316/.389 with four stolen bases and a 22/1 strikeout to walk ratio in 18 games.

Others: 10th rounder Deacon Liput was also drafted in the 19th round in 2017 by the Dodgers and didn't sign, and like with McLain, the Dodgers got him to sign this time. Always a very light hitter at Florida, he broke out this year by slashing .285/.375/.478 with nine home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 49/31 strikeout to walk ratio in 56 games. He's a good fielder and likely has utility upside, though his bat doesn't project to be anything special. Ultimately I could see him hitting something like Enrique Hernandez at his best. 18th rounder Niko Hulsizer has spent his career at Morehead State putting up eye popping numbers at the plate, including a ridiculous sophomore season in 2017 where he slashed .349/.435/.775 with 27 home runs and a 74/27 strikeout to walk ratio in 59 games in a hitter-friendly environment. He came down to Earth a bit this year, slashing .314/.423/.615 with 12 home runs and a 40/21 strikeout to walk ratio, dropping his strikeout rate from 25.3% to 19.2% and upping his walk rate from 9.3% to 10.1%. He has a bit of a slow swing and his power is more about strength, so he'll strike out a lot in pro ball, but he's already hitting well in the Pioneer League (.348/.464/.587, 2 HR, 10/10 K/BB). Lastly, I also saw 21st rounder Tre Todd play when Liberty came to visit Virginia Tech, and he was impressive. After demolishing JuCo pitching with Harford JuCo in 2017 (.408/.577/.856, 20 HR, 40 SB, 30/68 K/BB), he continued mashing when he transferred to Liberty this year, slashing .315/.479/.553 with 10 home runs and a 61/60 strikeout to walk ratio. His swing is long, which leads to a high strikeout rate (22.9% this year), but he gets the bat in the zone early and keeps it on plane with the pitch, which is good. He generates plenty of power from that swing and he has a chance to stick behind the plate as a catcher.

Saturday, July 14, 2018

2018 Draft Review: Colorado Rockies

First 5 rounds: Ryan Rolison (1-22), Grant Lavigne (CBA-42), Mitchell Kilkenny (2-76), Terrin Vavra (3-96), Ryan Feltner (4-126), Jacob Bird (5-156)
Also notable: Niko Decolati (6-186), Andrew Quezada (7-216), Kyle Datres (12-366), Kumar Rocker (38-1146)

The Rockies always have to take a slightly different approach to drafting, knowing that it's a different game in Coors Field. They have traditionally gone for pitching prospects with velocity or who get lots of ground balls. Curveballs don't break as much at altitude, which is why they would conceivably shy away from them. They leaned heavily on college players by taking just one high schooler, second rounder Grant Lavigne, in their first 33 picks, and leaned slightly more on pitching but not heavily. Overall, they got a lot of talent, though part of me feels like they could have gotten just a bit more.

1-22: LHP Ryan Rolison (my rank: 21)
This pick makes no sense to me. Ryan Rolison is a great arm that is absolutely a first round talent, but he relies on his curveball, something that he definitely won't be able to do at altitude in Colorado. It's just odd to me that the Rockies would go for him with more fastball-oriented college pitchers like Jackson Kowar and Shane McClanahan still on the board. Rolison is a 6'2" righty out of Ole Miss who was draft-eligible as a sophomore this year, going 10-4 with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 120/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 97 innings. He was fairly inconsistent,  especially towards the end of the season, but it's important to remember that he was pitching in the SEC with all those powerhouse teams. His 28% strikeout rate was still very impressive, especially in the SEC, though his 10.5% walk rate was a little high. He throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's, but his best pitch is his curveball, which has big break and can be used in any count in any location. He also throws a changeup that is nothing special but should continue develop. His command is just okay, and he suffers through bouts of wildness, and improving that consistency there will be his key to the majors. He's only 6'2" and seems physically mature, but getting on a pro workout regimen should help him maintain his fastball in the 94-95 range when all is said and done. For most teams, that's a potential #2 starter profile, but because his curveball won't be as effective at altitude, he might become more of a #3 or #4 guy. He did dominate the Cape Cod League last summer (4-0, 1.93 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 35/10 K/BB in 28 IP) and he's younger than most college players drafted this year, having just turned 21 a few days ago. He signed for just over $2.9 million, right at slot, and he allowed one run on one hit and no walks over two innings in his rookie level Pioneer League debut, striking out two.

CBA-42: 1B Grant Lavigne (my rank: 68)
This pick is the opposite of the Rolison pick. My rankings might show this as a bit of a reach, but the Rockies are the perfect team for a power hitting first baseman like Lavigne and he could really thrive in Coors. He's a 6'4" left handed slugger from just outside Manchester, New Hampshire, one with huge power and a great swing that won't need much tweaking. On the flip side, he's kind of a one-tool player, as he provides little value on defense, can't really run, and hadn't proven himself against real pitching. Playing in New Hampshire, he really didn't face much in terms of quality arms, so whether he can make contact against more advanced pitching in pro ball was a question. It's a risk, but that power will play very nicely in Coors Field. He signed for $2 million, which is $296,000 over slot, but I used a lot of past tense in that paragraph because he's ripping the cover off the ball in the minors so far. Through 18 games in the rookie level Pioneer League, which is an aggressive assignment for a high schooler from New Hampshire, he's slashing .391/.475/.623 with four home runs, four stolen bases, and a 14/8 strikeout to walk ratio, answering many questions about his contact ability. That performance alone would be enough for me to bump him up 35-40 slots in my rankings if I could do it over.

2-76: RHP Mitchell Kilkenny (my rank: 90)
Kilkenny wrapped up a successful three year career at Texas A&M with a solid junior year where he was 8-5 with a 3.34 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 92/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 97 innings, facing a lot of SEC competition. It was his first full season as a starter and he looked like a seasoned veteran. The 6'4" righty is your generic college pitching prospect, showing a low 90's fastball with a good slider and a decent changeup, commanding it all well and showing some projection to boot. He's one of those guys with the ceiling of a #3 starter but a very good chance to make the majors, a low risk pick in the second compensation round. Unfortunately, he underwent Tommy John surgery after the draft and won't be ready to pitch until at least mid-2019. He signed for $550,000, which is $237,200 below slot.

3-96: SS Terrin Vavra (unranked)
Vavra is a solid hitting shortstop out of the University of Minnesota, putting up his best year as a junior by slashing .386/.455/.614 with ten home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 22/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games. He's a guy who does a little bit of everything at the plate with his moderate power, good contact and keen eye. On defense, he probably won't stay at shortstop and has a better chance of becoming a decent second baseman. It all adds up to a nice package, but because his one main tool is in the contact/plate discipline department, his power will have to play up in order for him to start in the majors. Like Kilkenny, he also signed for $550,000, though he was $31,900 under slot. He's off to a great start in the short-season level Northwest League, slashing .406/.472/.563 with a home run, three stolen bases, and an 8/4 strikeout to walk ratio in eight games.

4-126: RHP Ryan Feltner (unranked)
This is a typical Rockies pick. Feltner has been mediocre as a starter at Ohio State, posting his best season this year but going 5-5 with a 4.52 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and an 86/44 strikeout to walk ratio in 91.2 innings.  He'll be better off in relief, where he'll be able to sit in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and have his decent slider and good changeup play up. There is incentive to try to keep him as a starter because he can still run his fastball into the mid 90's late in games, but he just hasn't had the results there. His command has been inconsistent, and hopefully as a reliever he'll get more consistent there. His fastball does lack life and he lacks much deception, which has also made his stuff play down. After struggling as a starter on the Cape in 2016 (14.88 ERA, 12/10 K/BB in 16.1 IP), he was much better as a reliever in 2017 (0.00 ERA, 15/7 K/BB in 15.1 IP). He signed for $434,700, right at slot, and tossed two shutout innings on one hit and one walk in his first appearance in the Pioneer League, striking out two.

Others: 5th rounder Jacob Bird was inconsistent over his first three years at UCLA, when he was used mostly in a swing role, but he took off with a great senior year this year. In 16 starts, he went 7-4 with a 2.18 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 61/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 111.2 innings, showing workhorse ability and great command that helped him get outs even without premium stuff. The 6'3" righty has the chance to push his way to the majors as a #4 or #5 starter. 6th rounder Niko Decolati comes from Loyola Marymount, where he was better as a sophomore (.320/.426/.432, 4 HR, 53/22 K/BB) than as a junior (.271/.367/.444, 6 HR, 60/23 K/BB). He's an enigma as a prospect, showing great power in batting practice but struggling to convert that power to games. He'll have an uphill battle trying to make it play up in pro ball with wood bats, but Coors Field is the best place for him to be able to get to that power and is therefore probably the best team he could have ended up with. With an August birthday, he's also one of the younger college juniors out there. 7th rounder Andrew Quezada was pretty good for Cal State Fullerton this year, going 4-5 with a 3.90 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 58/19 strikeout to walk ratio in 83 innings over 14 stats. He has great command, which helps his low 90's fastball, good slider, and good changeup play up, but none are good enough to generate tons of swings and misses. Like Bird, he'll look for a back of the rotation spot, but he could also end up in the bullpen. As a reliever on the Cape last summer, he posted a 1.50 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 17/3 strikeout to walk ratio in 18 innings. 12th rounder Kyle Datres has been taking care of business as the UNC third baseman for three years now, getting better each year and finishing his junior year with a .345/.438/.511 line, seven home runs, and a 38/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 64 games. He is good at a lot of things at the plate but not great at any, showing satisfactory power, contact, and patience. If he adds a little loft to his swing and the power breaks through, he could be a starting second or third baseman in the majors, but because he's a year old for his class (turned 22 in January), he has less time to make those adjustments. A good grab in the 12th round. Lastly, 38th rounder Kumar Rocker didn't sign, as he was a first round talent who fell due to a strong commitment to Vanderbilt. Rocker is a 6'5" righty from high school near Athens, Georgia, and his thick build makes him look a bit more like a football player than a pitcher, drawing comparisons to C.C. Sabathia. He has a power arm that can throw fastballs in the mid 90's, and his slider looks plus at times as well. He can be inconsistent with his control, but it's better than a lot of high school pitchers, and he has ace upside. It may take him some time to adjust to facing SEC competition at Vanderbilt, but he should emerge by his sophomore year as one of the best arms in the conference. He ranked 20th on my list.

Friday, July 13, 2018

2018 Draft Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

First 5 rounds: Matt McLain (1-25), Jake McCarthy (CBA-39), Alek Thomas (2-63), Jackson Goddard (3-99), Ryan Weiss (4-129), Matt Mercer (5-159)
Also notable: Tyler Holton (9-279), Nick Dalesandro (10-309), Blaze Alexander (11-339)

Not being able to sign first round pick Matt McLain was a big blow to the draft class, but I think they still managed to scrap together a very nice class, that competitive balance pick at #39 really helping. They focused on hitters for the first three picks before jumping to college pitchers for five picks in a row, and they were able to sign a couple of IMG Academy stars to large over-slot bonuses a bit later in the draft. Obviously, there's no headline pick in this draft class since they missed on their first rounder, but there's a lot of second tier talent spread around and D-Backs fans can look at this as a quantity draft.

1-25: 2B Matt McLain (my rank: 65)
Despite the ranking, I actually didn't mind this pick when the Diamondbacks made it because McLain is definitely a second round talent and one that I figured the D-Backs would try to cut a deal with to save slot space. However, they were unable to sign him, and I therefore am not a fan of this pick, which is hard to say because I do like McLain as a player, just a little lower in the draft. He's a high school infielder from Southern California, one who succeeds with average tools that play up due to his work ethic and feel for the game. He's skinny and probably won't hit for too much power, though there is some whip in his swing and it should spray lots of line drives once higher level coaching streamlines it to keep it in the zone longer. Defensively, he's nothing special, but he can play all around the infield and has a chance of sticking at shortstop in pro ball, though that's far from a given. He'll be eligible for the 2021 draft and in the meantime will hope to provide a spark for a UCLA program that has underperformed in recent years.

CBA-39: OF Jake McCarthy (my rank: 31)
I'm actually a big fan of McCarthy as a player and I really like this pick. The UVA outfielder was great in 2017 (.338/.425/.506, 5 HR, 27 SB, 35/26 K/BB) and was looking to build on that in 2018 when a broken wrist caused him to miss more than half the season. He still managed good numbers in his 20 games, slashing .329/.414/.415 with nine stolen bases and a 9/10 strikeout to walk ratio, though he failed to hit a home run. UVA plays in a pitchers' park and preaches a line-drive approach at the plate, so that explains his low power numbers in college, but I expect him to hit for more in pro ball due to his clean, explosive swing that should respond well to some loft. Defensively, he has the speed to stick in center field and could be a top of the lineup force in Arizona. Additionally, with a July birthday, he's young for the class, and he signed for $1.65 million, which is $184,500 below slot. He slashed .273/.333/.455 with a strikeout, a walk, and a stolen base in three games for the rookie level Arizona League before earning a promotion to the short-season level Northwest League, where he is slashing .231/.322/.346 with a home run, six stolen bases, and a 13/4 strikeout to walk ratio through 14 games.

2-63: OF Alek Thomas (my rank: 47)
Thomas is somewhat of a cross between McLain and McCarthy as a player, interestingly enough, playing McCarthy's position with his power potential but at McLain's age and with his noted game feel and attitude. Thomas comes from high school in Chicago, and where his dad is actually the strength and conditioning coach for the White Sox. I originally saw him as more of a fourth outfielder type but as he continued to show a very advanced approach at the plate, I warmed to him and moved him up about twenty spots on my rankings. At just 5'11" and fairly skinny, there isn't much power projection, but he could post high on-base percentages and steal lots of bases with his selective approach and plus speed. He's great defensively and should stick in center field, which will take some pressure off his bat, but adding power to his game would be big for him and would get him over the hump. He signed for $1.2 million, which is $164,500 below slot, and he's playing exactly as expected in the Arizona League, slashing .324/.400/.451 with six stolen bases and a 12/8 strikeout to walk ratio through 16 games, hitting no home runs yet but knocking three doubles and three triples.

3-99: RHP Jackson Goddard (my rank: 109)
Goddard is one of those guys with great stuff who hasn't been able to put it together in college due to inconsistency and poor command. He pitched for Kansas, where this year he went 5-1 with a 4.10 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 60/28 strikeout to walk ratio in 52.2 innings. He's a 6'3" righty that throws in the low to mid 90's and also adds a good slider and a good changeup, showing an arsenal that could be nearly major league ready. However, he struggles to command it, with those issues often stemming from his high effort delivery. The Diamondbacks will probably continue to run him out as a starter at first but he's probably best off as a reliever, where he could consistently sit around 96 and buckle hitters with his offspeed stuff if he can command it. He signed for $550,000, which is $15,100 below slot, and he has allowed three earned runs through four innings on two hits, three walks, and two strikeouts in four appearances between the Arizona League and the Northwest League.

5-159: RHP Matt Mercer (my rank: 99)
Mercer has a similar story to Goddard, though I like him just a bit better. The Oregon pitcher finished his junior year 5-7 with a 4.16 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and an 86/42 strikeout to walk ratio in 88.2 innings, showing a low to mid 90's fastball but not much in the way of offspeed pitches. While he, like Goddard, struggles with command, I like him better because he maintains his stuff throughout his starts and even though he's an inch shorter at 6'2", he looks to have a little bit more projectability. If the D-Backs can help him with that release point and get his offspeed stuff going more consistently, they could have stolen a back-end starter here in the fifth round. Otherwise, he's make a good reliever. Mercer signed for $314,800, right at slot, and he has allowed one earned run over four innings on three hits, one walk, and three strikeouts in three appearances between the Arizona League and the Northwest League.

Others: 4th rounder Ryan Weiss has been the ace of the Wright State pitching staff over the last two seasons, finishing 2018 9-2 with a 3.40 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 92/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 98 innings. He has better command than both Goddard and Mercer, though his fastball sits in the low 90's and doesn't reach the mid 90's as often as those two. His curveball and changeup are there and he has the best chance of sticking in the rotation of the three, and while his ceiling is probably the lowest, it's not by much. 9th rounder Tyler Holton has been exceptional over three years at Florida State, going 13-7 with a 2.44 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 234/65 strikeout to walk ratio in 190.2 innings since his freshman season, but he missed all but one start of his junior season with Tommy John surgery and won't pitch until 2019. The D-Backs were able to jump in and buy low, and he might end up being better than the three pitchers I've already written about. His fastball sits in the upper 80's and doesn't get above 90 all that much, but it plays up due to deception as well as his slider/changeup combination, and if he can add just a little velocity, he could surprise a lot of people. Unfortunately, he just turned 22 in June, and he may be 23 before he throws his first professional pitch. 10th rounder Nick Dalesandro is a light hitting Purdue catcher who slashed .297/.400/.402 this year with a pair of home runs, 27 stolen bases, and a 31/37 strikeout to walk ratio in 59 games. It's not your typical profile for a catcher, as he shows great speed and a patient approach at the plate without much power. Because he has the ability to stick behind the plate, Arizona will give his bat plenty of chances to catch develop and he could be the fastest catcher in the majors if he gets that far. 11th rounder Blaze Alexander is a high schooler out of the IMG Academy in Florida, with his $500,000 signing bonus taking up $375,000 of the Diamondbacks' slot space. He play shortstop and can stick there defensively, more-so because of his excellent arm (he can hit 95 on the mound) than because of his range. His bat takes some time to get into the zone, leading to contact and consistency problems, but he generates good bat speed and could have plus power to the pull side down the road if he taps into it enough. He's really a high-upside player who could be an impact player on the major league club if he does improve that contact, especially because he can play shortstop.

2018 Draft Review: St. Louis Cardinals

First 5 rounds: Nolan Gorman (1-19), Griffin Roberts (CBA-43), Luken Baker (2-75), Mateo Gil (3-95), Steven Gingery (4-123), Nick Dunn (5-153)
Also notable: Lars Nootbaar (8-243), Brandon Riley (14-423), Connor Coward (26-783)

The Cardinals always seem to draft well with too many homegrown stars to count, and this year looks no different. They got some really good players, especially for where their picks were, and it wouldn't surprise me if a couple turned out to be stars. They drafted high schoolers in the first and third rounds but otherwise stuck with college players, not taking a third high schooler until the 22nd round. They also split it up between hitters and pitchers, leaning a little heavier on the hitters in the first ten rounds but overall striking good balance. With the hitters, they did seem to focus on power early, and this draft could fill out the middle of their lineup a few years down the road. As always, a good job by St. Louis.

1-19: 3B Nolan Gorman (my rank: 13)
Gorman is a high schooler from the Phoenix suburbs, showing perhaps the best raw power in the entire high school class. The left handed hitting third baseman generates huge exit velocities and can hit the ball a mile, though the rest of his game could use some work. He takes some time to get his hands going and his swing is somewhat long, but his hands are so quick once they're moving that he shouldn't have too much trouble in the low minors. The Cardinals will surely work with him on shortening that swing in order to help him catch up to quicker fastballs in the mid and upper minors. At this point, he struggles a bit with breaking balls and looks a bit uncomfortable in the box against better pitching, so the Cardinals do have their work cut out for them. On defense, he could stick at third base, but first base is also a possibility. That's not the most glowing report, but Gorman's power is so great that it makes up for all of that and his upside is that of a 30-40 homer per year slugger. He signed for just over $3.2 million, right at slot, and he's slashing an excellent .313/.432/.597 with six home runs and a 16/14 strikeout to walk ratio through 19 games after an aggressive assignment to the rookie level Appalachian League.

CBA-43: RHP Griffin Roberts (my rank: 55)
This is a pick I wouldn't be thrilled with if I were a Cardinals fan, but Roberts does have a lot of upside for a college arm. The 6'3" righty out of Wake Forest had an interesting college career, pitching great as a reliever in 2017 (2.19 ERA, 80/32 K/BB, 53 innings) but regressing a little as a starter this year (3.82 ERA, 130/38 K/BB, 96.2 innings). As a starter, his fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and he throws an excellent put-away slider and a decent changeup, though that fastball bumps into the upper 90's as a reliever. He does throw with some effort and his command isn't always there, but he continued striking guys out in bunches even with the transition to the rotation this year. He also dominated the Cape Cod League as a starter (1.97 ERA, 35/6 K/BB, 32 innings), and he just may be able to stick as a starter. He'll have to tighten that command and improve that changeup, but the upside is high here for a college pitcher. His age is a minor negative, as he already turned 22 in June and he is really the age of a young college senior. He signed for a little under $1.7 million, right at slot.

2-75: 1B Luken Baker (my rank: 51)
Baker is a slugger, plain and simple, and if he hadn't suffered a pair of freak, season-ending injuries in the past two seasons, I think he could have easily gone in the top 50 picks. Baker was one of the top recruits to make it to college for the 2016 season, setting the world on fire as a freshman both on the mound (3-1, 1.70 ERA, 41/16 K/BB, 47.2 innings) and at the plate (.379/.483/.577, 11 HR, 39/45 K/BB) at TCU. The Horned Frogs slugger gave up pitching after his freshman year, though he never matched his freshman numbers. This year he was slashing .319/.443/.575 with nine home runs and an 18/24 strikeout to walk ratio before going down with a broken leg 31 games into the season, a year after he had ended his sophomore season with a fractured arm. Baker is a huge, huge person, listed at 6'4", 265 pounds, and he looks it. As you'd expect, he's a bottom of the scale runner and isn't a great fielder either at first base, though he does have a cannon arm. His head jerks a bit when he swings, though the rest of his swing is clean, and he manages the strike zone exceptionally well for such a burly hitter (12.9% K rate, 17.1% walk rate). I would like to see just a little more power given his lack of defensive value, though I'm confident the Cardinals will bring it out of him. He signed for $800,000, which was a whole $400 over slot, and he is 1-4 with a home run, a strikeout, and a walk in his first two games in the rookie level Gulf Coast League.

3-95: SS Mateo Gil (unranked)
Gil is a high schooler from the Fort Worth area, showing power potential as well as the possibility of being able to play shortstop. He'll need a lot of work, as he swings and misses a lot and has not proven he can make his power play to the opposite field, something pitchers will take advantage of immediately. If the Cardinals can improve his pitch recognition and clean up his swing, Gil could be a dynamic contributor for the team. He signed for $900,000, which is $312,400 above slot, and he's slashing .254/.371/.288 with no home runs and an 18/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 16 games in the Gulf Coast League.

4-123: LHP Steven Gingery (my rank: 70)
This is a great buy-low get for the Cardinals. Gingery was absolutely lights out at Texas Tech in 2017 (10-1, 1.58 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 107/29 K/BB, 91 innings) but blew out his elbow in his first start of 2018 and needed Tommy John surgery. When healthy, the 6'2" lefty throws his fastball right around 90 but he commands it well and gets hitters out with possibly the best changeup in a draft stacked with changeups. He lacks much projection, but if he can make his fastball and curveball tick up just a little, he should have no trouble stepping into a major league rotation. The fact that he's very young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until September also buys him time to return from surgery and still be on track. He signed for $825,000, which is $378,100 above slot.

26-783: RHP Connor Coward (unranked)
I watched plenty of Connor Coward at Virginia Tech, where he just finished his senior year 2-7 with a 5.19 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 76/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 78 innings for the Hokies. He never put up big numbers, with his 4.75 ERA in 2017 marking his career best in Blacksburg, but he does have the chance to make something of himself as a minor leaguer. He's fairly inconsistent but throws his fastball in the low 90's and when his curve is working, it's a pretty good pitch. His delivery is easy, though he could use to take a step forward with his average command, and he has no trouble maintaining his stuff deep into starts. However, because his stuff is fringy overall, he'll be best off going to the bullpen where it can play up and give him a shot at major league middle or long relief. He signed for an undisclosed amount and is currently dominating the Gulf Coast League, tossing eleven innings and allowing one run (0.82 ERA) on five hits, no walks, and 13 strikeouts while averaging nearly three innings per appearance.

Un-drafted Free Agent Signing: C Joe Freiday (unranked)
The Cardinals also picked up Coward's battery mate, catcher Joe Freiday, as an un-drafted free agent. Freiday has always been a fringe-prospect, showing great tools but never quite putting it together on the field. Standing 6'3" and weighing 240 pounds, he's got plenty of power, but his aggressive approach leads to too many swings and misses. He struggled mightily on the Cape after his sophomore year in 2016 (.105/.105/.316, 1 HR, 11/0 K/BB) and hit mediocre as a junior in NCAA play in 2017 (.225/.315/.423, 8 HR, 53/13 K/BB). As a senior this year, his power dipped, and he finished at .250/.338/.400 with five home runs and a 33/15 strikeout to walk ratio. What stands out to me is the improvement in his plate discipline, which was visible if you watched him play, as he dropped his strikeout rate from 32.3% to a more reasonable 20.6% while upping his walk rate from 7.9% to 9.4%. He chased fewer pitches and was more willing to go the other way, but he can really turn on balls on the inner half. On defense, he moves well and can block his share of balls in the dirt, but he really stands out for his excellent arm strength that generated consistent pop times below 2.00. He'll have a long road to the bigs because even with the improvement in his plate discipline, he still swings and misses far too much and will be exploited by pro pitching. So far in the Gulf Coast League, he's slashing .286/.500/.286 with no extra base hits and a 5/6 strikeout to walk ratio in four games.

Others: 5th rounder Nick Dunn comes from the University of Maryland, where he finished his junior year slashing .330/.419/.561 with ten home runs and a 19/32 strikeout to walk ratio. He plays second base and uses his very advanced approach at the plate and clean swing to help his average offensive tools play up. He also performed very well on the Cape over two years (.321/.394/.415, 2 HR, 35/34 K/BB in 81 games) and should be able to get to the majors quickly. He doesn't have too much upside but could be a fringe-starter who focuses on on-base ability. 8th rounder Lars Nootbaar comes from the University of Southern California, where he was much better as a sophomore (.304/.416/.473, 5 HR, 32/35 K/BB) than as a junior (.249/.357/.373, 6 HR, 37/34 K/BB). He's a contact hitting outfielder with good plate discipline that will help him transition well to pro ball, but the ceiling is that of a fourth outfielder, basically a cheaper Nick Dunn at the plate. 14th rounder Brandon Riley, a utility man from UNC, was also better as a sophomore (.317/.406/.496, 7 HR, 34/37 K/BB) than as a junior (.284/.386/.416, 5 HR, 47/45 K/BB), upping both his strikeout and walk rates this year. He has some speed and will provide more defensive value than Dunn and Nootbaar, and he should be a high floor, low ceiling prospect for the Cards that could get to the majors quickly.