First 5 rounds: Travis Swaggerty (1-10), Gunnar Hoglund (CBA-36), Braxton Ashcraft (2-51), Connor Kaiser (3-86), Aaron Shortridge (4-114), Grant Koch (5-144)
Also notable: Michael Flynn (6-174), Brett Kinneman (7-204), Zack Kone (13-384), Jonah Davis (15-444)
The Pirates mixed up their draft both between high school and college and between hitters and pitchers. I think they drafted some nice talent, though overall I think they came away with a fairly mediocre class, especially with competitive balance pick Gunnar Hoglund choosing not to sign. With Hoglund heading to college and Travis Swaggerty more of a known commodity, it will likely be on Braxton Ashcraft to pick up the slack and make this class look good.
1-10: OF Travis Swaggerty (my rank: 8)
Swaggerty, an outfielder at South Alabama, was considered by some to be the best college hitter in the class until Florida's Jonathan India and Georgia Tech's Joey Bart passed him. Swaggerty did nothing wrong, slashing .296/.455/.526 with 13 home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 38/54 strikeout to walk ratio in 57 games. Though it was down from his sophomore year (.361/.487/.567, 10 HR, 19 SB, 43/47 K/BB), the improvement of his plate discipline and power was nice to see for a guy who stands just 5'11". He's solidly built but is a great runner, covering plenty of ground in center field and stealing plenty of bases, and his above average arm makes him very valuable on defense. Swaggerty's bat is just as much a calling card as his defense, as he has shown great plate discipline (13.7% strikeout rate, 19.5% walk rate) to go along with good power and speed, having cleaned up and shortened his swing this year to cut down on those strikeouts. Even though his swing is shorter, he gained power this year, and he can really hit it for a shorter guy. There's a lot of boom in the bat and an Andrew Benintendi future is not out of the question. As a bonus, he doesn't turn 21 until August, making him one of the younger college juniors in the class. He signed for $4.4 million, which is $160,200 below slot, and he is slashing a cool .295/.354/.500 with a home run, a pair of stolen bases, and an 11/2 strikeout to walk ratio through 11 games in the short season New York-Penn League.
CBA-36: RHP Gunnar Hoglund (my rank: 40)
Hoglund, a high school pitcher from near Tampa, did not end up signing, so this paragraph will be of more interest to Ole Miss fans than to Pirates fans. Hoglund is a 6'4" righty on whom opinions vary, with some liking him in this range and others thinking he'd be better off in the second round, and I'm of the former opinion. I definitely like Hoglund and while this is pretty early in the draft, I wouldn't have minded it if they signed him. He throws his running fastball in the low to mid 90's with the potential for more, coming from a clean and easy delivery. His curve has good shape, and if he can improve its power, it can be a plus pitch as well. Third on the to-do list will be adding a changeup, and with those three pitches, he could be a #2 starter. He commands everything pretty well and his delivery bodes well for him continuing to do so, so he really does have a very realistic chance of reaching that upside. Of course, he didn't sign, and he'll go replace Ryan Rolison in the rotation for a still very talented Ole Miss Rebels team. Slot value was just under $2 million, and the Pirates won't be able to re-allocate that bonus space elsewhere.
2-51: RHP Braxton Ashcraft (my rank: 81)
Ashcraft is a 6'5" right handed high school pitcher from Robinson, Texas (just outside of Waco), and he looks just like you'd expect a guy with that description to look. As with any good central Texan, he's a former football standout as well, displaying tremendous athleticism to go with his size. He throws his fastball in the low 90's and is trending up, with mid 90's velocities easily foreseeable when all is said and done. However, the rest of his game is very much a work in progress, as his slider has good shape but not much power and his changeup isn't really there yet. He has an easy delivery and commands his pitches fairly well, though the command will have to take a step forward. Obviously by the rankings, I'm not a big fan of this pick, though I don't dislike it as much as I would for other teams. The Pirates do well with high school power pitchers, with Tyler Glasnow, Mitch Keller, Shane Baz, and Braeden Oegle performing well. Ashcraft signed for $1.825 million, which comes out to $442,600 over slot.
3-86: SS Connor Kaiser (unranked)
Most of Kaiser's value is in his glove, where he is an excellent defensive shortstop who can stick at the position all the way up to the majors. He's not a great hitter, though, as he did pretty much nothing at the plate over his first two seasons at Vanderbilt before having a moderate breakout season in 2018, slashing .293/.389/.446 with six home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 52/31 strikeout to walk ratio. He employs a big leg kick at the plate that gives him somewhat of a long swing and sometimes affects his timing, so he'll probably have to tone down the leg kick in the pros to cut down on his strikeouts. My guess is that whatever adjustments he ends up making in pro ball will sap much of his power, and he'll have to hit his way to the majors as an on-base type. Really, just as long as he provides any value on offense, he should be good to go in terms of getting to the bigs because playing a good shortstop exerts very little pressure on the bat. However, I'm not a big fan of this pick because he really has a ceiling somewhere around Alcides Escobar and that's just not enough upside for me inside the top 100 picks. He signed for $625,000, which is $48,200 below slot, and he is slashing .211/.340/.211 with a stolen base and an 11/6 strikeout to walk ratio through 11 games in the New York-Penn League.
5-144: C Grant Koch (unranked)
Koch, who caught for the Arkansas team that came one out away from the NCAA Championship, has been inconsistent throughout his career. He was pretty good as a sophomore (.264/.358/.498, 13 HR, 47/33 K/BB) then tore it up for Team USA over the summer (.372/.500/.535), but regressed as a junior this year (.245/.358/.375, 7 HR, 45/38 K/BB). He has a relatively slow swing and the bat take some time to get going, though he can really drive the ball when he gets into one. His swing will need to get cleaned up to catch up to pro pitching, and his pretty good plate discipline (17.3% strikeout rate, 14.6% walk rate) should help him with that transition. Behind the plate, he has gotten better and should be able to stick back there as an average defender, taking some pressure off the bat. Overall, it's a backup catcher profile, and he signed right at slot for $364,600. Through a pair of games in the New York-Penn League, he is hitless in six games but has drawn three walks without striking out.
7-204: OF Brett Kinneman (unranked)
I had the chance to watch Kinneman over a three game series at Virginia Tech and came away impressed, and you can read about that here. He's may be a college pick, but he seems to me to fit the high ceiling, low floor mold. The NC State outfielder had an up and down season, finishing with an overall .274/.392/.581 line, 17 home runs, and a 65/46 strikeout to walk ratio in 60 games, showing easy power but room for improvement in his approach. Kinneman has easy power from a clean swing, showing the ability to really put a charge into baseballs without selling out at all. However, he does have a tendency to chase, leading to a 23% strikeout rate this year, though he also draws his share of walks with a 16.2% walk rate. Kinneman's clean power gives him the chance to be a 20-30 homer bat in the majors, and refining his approach will be the key to doing so. It's a great get in the seventh round, and he signed at slot for $215,500. Through 18 games in the New York-Penn League, he's slashing .279/.405/.328 with an 18/13 strikeout to walk ratio and no home runs yet.
Others: 4th rounder Aaron Shortridge comes from Cal-Berkeley, having finished his junior year 5-3 with a 2.77 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 74/14 strikeout to walk ratio in 91 innings. It was the 6'3" righty's first year as a starter and he took well to it, and the Pirates are keeping him as a starter so far in pro ball. I don't have velocity data on him but he throws from an easy delivery which should be conducive to maintaining his stuff and command throughout starts, and he could gain some more velocity by channeling his delivery more on-line to the plate. His curve looks average right now but could improve in time. 6th rounder Michael Flynn is not the same guy who has been in and out of courtrooms in Washington, D.C., rather he's a right handed pitcher out of Arizona. With the Wildcats this year, he went 6-5 with a 4.89 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 72/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings, though his stuff is better than that. He throws his fastball in the low 90's and adds a couple of breaking balls, and his changeup is pretty good as well. The numbers might have been poorer due to the lack of movement on his fastball, and he also ran into trouble when he left pitches over the plate to get hit, as his control is ahead of his command at this point. He could end up being a back-end starter. 13th rounder Zack Kone comes from Duke, where he had his best year this year by slashing .300/.359/.449 with five home runs and a 40/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. He played shortstop there, but may be forced over to second base if he can't improve his defense. If he can, it will buy his bat time to develop, and he could end up as a solid utility man at the major league level. To get there though, he'll have to improve his plate discipline and draw a few more walks. 15th rounder Jonah Davis is another Cal Golden Bear who had a breakout year this year, slashing .321/.446/.606 with 14 home runs and a 75/27 strikeout to walk ratio in 54 games. Clearly, the power is there (even at 5'10"), but also clearly, he strikes out way too much. Pro pitching will eat him up if he doesn't become more refined at the plate (31% strikeout rate will only get higher in pro ball if something doesn't change), but being a relatively speedy center fielder, he will hold onto his prospect status as long as he sticks in center and keeps hitting home runs.
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