Wednesday, July 4, 2018

2018 Draft Review: Philadelphia Phillies

First 5 rounds: Alec Bohm (1-3), Colton Eastman (4-107), Matt Vierling (5-137)
Also notable: Logan Simmons (6-167), Dominic Pipken (9-257), Madison Stokes (10-287), Jack Perkins (11-317), Jesse Wilkening (14-407)

The Phillies didn't have second or third round picks due to signing Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana, but they still made the most of what they had. They started off with three straight college players before using the money they saved on first rounder Alec Bohm to go significantly over slot on their seventh, ninth, twelfth, and sixteenth round picks, thereby recouping a lot of the value they lost in not having those picks. It was a well-played chess game by Phillies management this year, and they'll be able to inject some talent into a system that has been becoming top-heavy and pitching-heavy.

1-3: 3B Alec Bohm (my rank: 7)
The Phillies' system is both top-heavy and pitching-heavy, so injecting some elite offensive talent into the system here with the third overall pick works out very well for them. Bohm played third base at Wichita State, slashing .339/.436/.625 with 16 home runs and a 28/39 strikeout to walk ratio in 57 games, showing elite power, contact, and patience at the plate. He actually managed to hit those 16 home runs with a bit of a loopy swing that has room to add more power, and because he has such good barrel control and an eye at the plate (10.5% strikeout rate), he can make that change without sacrificing much contact. In Philadelphia, he's a guy who could hit 30-40 home runs per season while also getting on base at a .400 clip, making him a middle-of-the-order threat who could anchor this lineup as a best case scenario. His glove is nothing special, and there is a decent chance he has to move from third base to first base, but it's the bat the Phillies are buying and he has the best combination of ceiling and floor of all bats this year. He signed for $5.85 million, saving the Phillies nearly $1.1 million in bonus space. He slashed .500/.571/.667 with a 0/1 strikeout to walk ratio in five games in the rookie level Gulf Coast League, but his slashing just .176/.222/.206 with a 6/1 ratio in nine games since being promoted to the short season level New York-Penn League.

4-107: RHP Colton Eastman (my rank: 76)
In the third round of the 2017 draft, the Phillies picked up a 6'3" pitchability righty out of Cal State Fullerton named Connor Seabold. In the fourth round in 2018, they grabbed a 6'3" pitchability righty out of Cal State Fullerton named Colton Eastman. It has gone well with Seabold and he's already in AA, so I guess the Phillies figured having two of the same guy would be cool. Eastman finished his junior season 10-4 with a 2.37 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, striking out 124 and walking 28 in 117.2 innings, and the most impressive part was that the ERA and WHIP were both career worsts. That puts his career line at 20-7, 2.29 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 261/64 K/BB over 250 innings. Not bad. His stuff has kind of fluctuated throughout his career, but as it stands now, his fastball doesn't get too far above 90 while his curve looks good and his changeup looks better. His fastball is a little slower than it once was, his curve is a little better, and his changeup is a little worse, but the Phillies do well with pitching and will hope to get all three pitches to the top of their potential at the same time. He doesn't have pinpoint command, but the control is well above average and it all comes together as a fairly safe back of the rotation profile. He signed for $522,900, right at slot.

5-137: OF Matt Vierling (unranked)
Vierling is one of those guys that does a little bit of everything well. At Notre Dame, he slashed .310/.402/.505 with ten home runs and a 28/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games as a junior, showing moderate power, on-base ability, speed, and defense. He also made six appearances out of the Irish bullpen. He profiles more as a back-up at the major league level, but even a small step forward in his offensive game could make him a starting right or center fielder. He has an advanced approach at the plate, and with that moderate power, he could hit 15-20 home runs per season with on-base percentages around .350 at his best. On defense, he has a cannon arm and may have enough speed to stick in center, which would make it easier for him to start, though right field is a possibility. He signed for $380,000, which is $10,600 below slot, and has gotten off to a hot start in the minors. In 12 games in the New York-Pen League, he slashed .420/.453/.580 with a home run and a 2/3 strikeout to walk ratio, and has collected three hits in seven at bats (.429 AVG) since being promoted to Class A Lakewood.

9-257: RHP Dominic Pipken (my rank: 88)
Pipken was a top three rounds talent, but fell to the ninth because of signability. The 6'4" right hander out of high school in the East Bay north of Oakland has good present stuff and a lot of projectability. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's from an easy delivery, so it is easy to dream on mid 90's velocity when all is said and done. His offspeeds are more of a work in progress, though his slider does have good shape and could be a plus pitch with pro refinement. He doesn't have the best command at this point and has been inconsistent this spring, so it's a high risk pick, but there is high reward as well. He signed for $800,000, which is $646,400 above slot.

Others: 6th rounder Logan Simmons is an infielder out of high school in Macon, Georgia that has a high ceiling, low floor profile. A shortstop at this point, he may have to move to third base, but that's not a given. His bat is where the variance lies, as he has plenty of power from the right side but has often struggled with contact, even at the high school level. If the Phillies can streamline his swing and cut his strikeouts down significantly, he has the upside of a starting shortstop with power, but if he struggles with contact and has to move to third base, it'll be a tough road forward. His $750,000 signing bonus was $457,300 above slot. 10th rounder Madison Stokes played four years at South Carolina, finishing it off with a .322/.414/.579 slash line, 11 home runs, and a 44/29 strikeout to walk ratio in his senior season. He can play all over the field, including shortstop, and combined with his offensive profile, he has a good chance at hitting his way to a utility role in the majors. His $10,000 signing bonus also saved the Phillies $132,600 in slot space. 11th rounder Jack Perkins may not be as famous as his teammate in the Stetson rotation, Mariners first rounder Logan Gilbert, but he was nearly as effective. Over 18 games (17 starts), he went 11-3 with a 2.80 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 108/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 106 innings. He held his own in the Cape Cod League (4.97 ERA, 22/11 K/BB) and projects as a back-end starter with the potential for more if he can add velocity, considering his projectable 6'4" frame and late birthday (turns 21 in August). 14th rounder Jesse Wilkening had a breakout year as Nebraska's catcher this year, slashing .372/.445/.588 with nine home runs and a 36/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. He's very capable defensively with good all around actions, and he has shown the ability to get on base and hit for some power. It's a backup catcher profile, but some steps forward at the plate could land him in a starting role.

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