2020 Prospect Depth Chart: Toronto Blue Jays

Even with the graduations of the trio of players' sons of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio, the Jays still have more on the way in Kacy (Roger's son) Clemens and Griffin (Jeff's son) Conine. More importantly, even after those graduations, they retain one of the very best systems in the game. They have a ton of depth virtually everywhere, as well as the big names you love to see at the top of a system. Nate Pearson is one of the top couple of pitching prospects in the game, and behind him there's a lot of high ceiling talent in hitters like Jordan Groshans, Conine, Orelvis Martinez, and Miguel Hiraldo and pitchers like Eric Pardinho, Simeon Woods Richardson, Alek Manoah, Adam Kloffenstein, and Kendall Williams. The Jays seem to love ground ball pitchers with good command, and they've certainly found the right ones given the current state of this system.

Affiliates: AAA Buffalo Bisons, AA New Hampshire Fisher Cats, High A Dunedin Blue Jays, Class A Lansing Lugnuts, short season Vancouver Canadians, rookie level Bluefield Blue Jays, complex level GCL and DSL Blue Jays

Catcher
- Reese McGuire (2020 Age: 25): Danny Jansen rightfully earned the role as the Blue Jays starting catcher going forward, at least for now, though Reese McGuire has been hitting just enough to stay in the picture as his long-term backup. A former first round pick out of a Seattle-area high school way back in 2013, the same first round that produced veterans Kris Bryant, Jon Gray, and Tim Anderson, McGuire originally went to the Pirates before coming over to Toronto in the Drew Hutchison/Francisco Liriano deal in 2016. In 2019, McGuire hit an underwhelming .247/.316/.366 with five home runs and a 44/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 72 games at AAA Buffalo, but through two short major league seasons, he's hitting a great .297/.343/.539 with seven home runs in 44 games. While he definitely won't be that kind of hitter over longer sample sizes, the strong performances show that his bat is major league ready and that his strong plate discipline will play up in the majors. He doesn't have a ton of power, but he should get on base enough given that he has a very strong glove, which takes a ton of pressure off his bat. He'll still have to hit because the Blue Jays have quite a few talented young catchers coming up through the minors, but at least for now, he and Jansen profile well together behind the dish.
- Riley Adams (2020 Age: 23-24): In most systems, Adams would stand out as a power hitting catcher with a solid glove, but this system is so deep behind the plate that he's probably a backup in the long term. In 2019, the former 2017 third round pick out of San Diego slashed .261/.366/.443 with 14 home runs and a 123/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 games at High A Dunedin and AA New Hampshire, representing a massive improvement over the .246/.352/.361 line he put up in 2018. Adams has always been a patient hitter, but in 2019 he finally started to tap the power in his 6'4" frame consistently, and he now projects for 10-15 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages. He's not a Gold Glover behind the plate, but he's fully competent back there and gets the job done, so his overall profile shows a well-rounded game with no true strengths but no true weaknesses either. If he can build off his offensive success in 2019, he could find himself as a backup catcher in Toronto soon.
- Alejandro Kirk (2020 Age: 21): Kirk was an unheralded prospect signing out of Tijuana, Mexico in 2016, and since hurting his hand in a car accident in 2017, he's hit his way straight into the middle of prospect lists. After hitting .354/.443/.558 in rookie ball in 2018, he continued the hot hitting into 2019 by slashing .290/.403/.465 with seven home runs and an excellent 39/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 92 games at Class A Lansing and High A Dunedin. He has an excellent understanding of the strike zone and rarely swings and misses, which enables him to find the barrel more often than not and hit for a lot of impact despite his stocky 5'9" stature. It bodes extremely well for his ability to keep hitting as he's promoted to the upper minors and eventually the majors, and he could post .350+ on-base percentages at the major league level. How much power he will hit for is uncertain, but because he finds that barrel so easily, whatever power he has will play up. Defensively, it's a bit of a different story for Kirk, as he can't match the gloves of the other names on this list. In some systems, he might be able to work his way into a starting catching spot anyways, but with all the catchers in this system, he might be forced over to DH since he's too short for first base and too slow for the outfield. You know what they say, though, if you can hit, they'll find a spot for you.
- Gabriel Moreno (2020 Age: 20): Moreno has a fairly similar profile to Kirk. Also an unheralded prospect who signed for just $25,000 out of Venezuela in the same 2016 signing class, he demolished complex and rookie ball in 2018 (.359/.395/.575) and was teammates for some time with Kirk in both 2018 and 2019. Moreno, who is more than a year younger, slashed .280/.337/.485 with 12 home runs and a 38/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 games at Class A Lansing in 2019. He doesn't walk quite as much as Kirk, but he's equally difficult to strike out and that excellent feel for the barrel enables his below average raw power to play up to average in games. Standing 5'11", he's skinnier than Kirk but does do a good job of channeling his strength into his swing, and he could eventually hit 15 home runs a year in the majors. Defensively, he's also a work in progress, but he's younger and does grade out a bit better than Kirk back there, giving him a better chance to stick as a catcher.
- Keep an eye on: Hagen Danner, Philip Clarke, Ryan Sloniger, Javier D'Orazio

Corner Infield
- Jordan Groshans (2020 Age: 20): Groshans went in the first round out of high school just outside Houston in 2018, and he was raking at Class A Lansing with a .337/.427/.482 line, two home runs, and a 21/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games when a foot injury ended his 2019 season in May. At 6'3", he has above average power as well as very good feel for the barrel, but his swing is currently more geared for line drives and he'll probably need to add some loft in order to fully tap that power. He brings a strong approach at the plate and has hit everywhere he's gone, so I wouldn't be too worried about it, it's just an adjustment he needs to make. Defensively, he's athletic and has played shortstop for now, though he probably won't stick at the position and profiles as an above average defender at third base. Overall, it's a favorable outlook as a guy who can hit 20-25 home runs per season with high on-base percentages if everything breaks right, though obviously that profile comes with significant risk since he's just 71 games into his pro career.
- Miguel Hiraldo (2020 Age: 19): As with Groshans, it's not completely clear where Hiraldo will end up defensively, as he's played mostly shortstop in his minor league career but probably won't stick there, with third base being the best fit but second base looking potentially more viable given the presence of Groshans, a superior defender. There isn't much question about his bat, though, as he slashed .299/.346/.485 with seven home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 36/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games in 2019, mostly at rookie level Bluefield. He's extraordinarily talented with explosive athleticism that plays on both sides of the ball, even at 5'11", though like most teenagers, he's still learning the overall nuances of the game. That explosive swing could produce well above average power down the line, and while he hasn't been much of a strikeout risk yet, how much he taps that power will likely come down to how consistently he can find the barrel against more advanced pitching. It's hard to project him in any kind of concrete way just yet, as he's set to play all of 2020 at 19 years old, but it's an exciting profile for the Blue Jays to build off of. It will also be interesting to see where in the infield he ends up.
- Johnny Aiello (2020 Age: 23): Aiello was a well-regarded high school prospect coming out of the Philadelphia area in 2015, but he chose to attend school and a strong sophomore year at Wake Forest bumped up his stock. However, he slumped as a junior and fell to the Blue Jays in the 14th round in 2018, and in 2019 he slashed .258/.352/.419 with eight home runs and a 96/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 77 games at Class A Lansing. Aiello's calling card is his power, which helped him hit 26 extra base hits in those 77 games, but his big weakness is swing and miss, with those 96 strikeouts in the same timeframe. The key for Aiello going forward will obviously be cutting down on those strikeouts, which in turn will help him tap even more power and potentially become a platoon/bench bat down the road.
- Keep an eye on: Cullen Large, Yorman Rodriguez, Spencer Horwitz

Middle Infield
- Kevin Smith (2020 Age: 23-24): Smith, a fourth round pick out of Maryland in 2017, is one of the more interesting hitters in the system. He hit well in the elite Cape Cod League in college but put up just a .323 on-base percentage as a junior at Maryland, then has hit consistently worse as he's been promoted. He broke out to hit an incredible .355/.407/.639 in Class A in 2018, but that dropped to .274/.332/.468 after a promotion to High A that same year. In 2019, up at AA, he hit just .209/.263/.402 with 19 home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 151/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games for New Hampshire, and he's more or less the same hitter he was a year ago. Smith generates a lot of power from his 5'11" frame, and he's gotten to it consistently throughout his amateur and pro careers despite all the problems he's had with swing and miss. When he hits it, he hits it hard, and he'll probably continue to hit for power in the majors. Given how much he's struggled to control the zone, though, he might not ever post high enough on-base percentages to start, with a right handed Kelly Johnson or Danny Espinosa being good comps. In addition to his power, his defense will get him to the majors, as he's strong at shortstop and can handle any position in the infield.
- Otto Lopez (2020 Age: 21): Lopez gotten better and better since being an under the radar signing out of the Dominican Republic in 2016, and in 2019 he slashed .324/.371/.425 with five home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 63/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games at Class A Lansing. He employs a short, direct swing that helps him keep his strikeout rate extremely low, and as he fills out he should continue to get stronger and drive more extra base hits. He probably won't ever be a power threat, though he could threaten for double digit home runs if he fills out a little more and starts to lift the ball, but he could post high on-base percentages as more of a contact/line drive hitter. The projection here is that of a future utility infielder, though he's a sleeper who could turn into more if he does tap some of that power. Though he was signed out of the Dominican, he actually grew up in Montreal as a Dominican-Canadian, giving the Jays a hometown prospect.
- Tanner Morris (2020 Age: 22): Morris went in the fifth round out of UVA in 2019, then hit .246/.384/.346 with two home runs and a 56/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games at short season Vancouver. He stands out for his ability to control the zone and make consistent contact, which has enabled him to hit everywhere he's gone. However, Morris is more of a slap hitter who doesn't drive the ball with a ton of authority, so in order to stay relevant in this system, he'll have to develop at least more doubles power if not more home run power. A decent defender in the infield, he's more of a second baseman, which overall doesn't really help or hurt his profile. If he can hit with more authority, he could be a utility infielder down the road, and he does come with a very high floor just because of that barrel control and eye for the zone.
- Leonardo Jimenez (2020 Age: 18-19): Jimenez is just 18 years old, but he's turned out to be a very advanced hitter and he slashed .294/.372/.371 with a 44/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games, mostly at rookie level Bluefield. While he can spray line drives around the field, he doesn't hit for a ton of impact yet at the plate, instead relying for now on his great feel for hitting in general. The hope is that he can grow into more strength and start to be an extra base threat, though he'll probably never hit more than 5-10 home runs per season. He's a strong defender that should be able to stick at shortstop, adding to his profile, and he has a very good chance to be up in High A as a teenager.
- Orelvis Martinez (2020 Age: 18): Signed for $3.5 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2018, Martinez skipped the Dominican Summer League entirely and began his pro career in the complex level Gulf Coast League in 2019, slashing .275/.352/.549 with seven home runs and a 29/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games. A truly explosive hitter, Martinez has arguably the highest upside of any position player in the system, and he showed that by cracking 20 extra base hits in 40 games at just 17 years old in 2019. He generates a ton of raw power from the right side and got to it consistently, and he kept his strikeouts down as well despite his age and big swing. He generates natural loft and leverage in his swing, though going forward, he'll need to refine his approach significantly. Since he's set to play all of 2020 at just 18 years old, that's a non-issue at this point. Defensively, he has a good shot to stick at shortstop and would be above average if he moved to third, and overall he comes with high risk but All Star upside.
- Keep an eye on: Logan Warmoth, Samad Taylor, Kevin Vicuna, Nick Podkul, LJ Talley

Outfield
- Anthony Alford (2020 Age: 25-26): Yes, Alford somehow still retains his rookie status, despite appearing in the majors in three different seasons (which, by the way, makes him the longest tenured active Blue Jay). A third round pick out of a Mississippi high school way back in 2012, a draft in which Marcus Stroman was a Blue Jays' first round pick, Alford hit .264/.348/.434 with eight home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 95/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 games between AAA Buffalo and complex level rehab in 2019, and in three major league seasons he's hit .145/.203/.218 with a home run in 33 games. A former college football player at both Southern Miss and Ole Miss, Alford's athleticism clearly shows on the field, mostly in his great speed that has enabled him to steal 114 bases in his minor league career. The Jays were hoping that he'd eventually tap some power in his 6'1" frame, though that never quite came and he's more of a doubles and triples hitter than a home run hitter. With a fringy hit tool, he's probably more of a fourth outfielder than a starter, where he should have a decent all-around offensive game. He also has good range in center field, but his fringy arm limits his overall value there. Regardless, I'm not writing about him again next year even if he's still somehow a prospect, and this is probably the make it or break it season for the 25 year old.
- Griffin Conine (2020 Age: 22-23): Conine rode an up and down career at Duke to a second round selection in 2018, but he was suspended for 50 games to start 2019 due to a positive test for Ritalin. Once he returned, he raked against modest competition, slashing .283/.371/.576 with 22 home runs and a 125/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 games at Class A Lansing, which are great numbers that really show his profile well. Conine has a lot of raw power from the left side, using an explosive left handed swing and a 6'1" frame to generate a lot of power that he has gotten to consistently against advanced pitching. However, he also has a lot of swing and miss in his game, especially when he really tries to yank one, and a 35.9% strikeout rate as a 21-22 year old in Class A is a bit worrisome. Perhaps some of that can be chalked up to the late start, but he is going to have to lock down the strike zone at least a little bit going forward once he starts to face more advanced pitching. Conine's power comes naturally, so he'll probably never have any trouble tapping it, it's just a matter of what else he can do aside from hit home runs. With his strong arm, he profiles well in right field.
- Ryan Noda (2020 Age: 24): Noda was a 15th round pick out of Cincinnati in 2017, and he's added a new dimension to his game in pro ball, patience at the plate. He led all of Minor League Baseball with 109 walks in 2018, then in 2019 he slashed .238/.372/.418 with 13 home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 138/74 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games at High A Dunedin. He has a strong swing from the left side that enables him to generate a lot of power, and he's a ridiculously patient hitter that will make you throw him his pitch and will take walks all day. He also strikes out a lot because he's frequently in deep counts, which limits his batting average, so he's a three true outcome hitter. Noda probably won't ever make enough contact to start every day in the majors, but he has a chance to be a bench bat/platoon hitter that hits right handed pitching well.
- Will Robertson (2020 Age: 22): Robertson, a fourth round pick out of Creighton in 2019, has a fairly similar profile to Griffin Conine, and he slashed .268/.365/.404 with six home runs and a 49/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games at short season Vancouver in his pro debut. Like Conine, he excelled against elite competition in the Cape Cod League in college but had an up and down career at school, and he comes from the left side with a lot of power as well as questions as to how much he'll get to it. The profile isn't quite as extreme, as he has a bit less raw power as well as the ability to control the zone a bit better, though he's also a bit worse in the field. In all, I like Conine better as a prospect, but I think this was a really nice pickup in the fourth round as someone who could potentially hit 20-25 home runs in the majors with decent on-base percentages, and a good shot at being a bench/platoon bat.
- Dasan Brown (2020 Age: 18): Brown was the Blue Jays' third round pick in 2019, and as fate would have it, he grew up a Jays fan in the Toronto suburb of Oakville about 20 miles southwest of Rogers Centre. He spent his pro debut in the complex level Gulf Coast League, slashing .222/.444/.356 with six stolen bases and a 17/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 games. Brown, who was young for a high school senior and who will spend the entire 2020 season at just 18 years old, was drafted for his speed and projectability, as he's very raw as a player right now. He employs a choppy swing that keeps him from hitting for a ton of impact, so the Blue Jays will need to overhaul his mechanics, but he packs a lot of strength into his lean frame and could end up with plenty of gap power. Defensively, his plus speed helps him show great range in the outfield, so he'll definitely be able to stick in center. Patience will be key in developing Brown, but the Blue Jays are hoping to unlock a truly homegrown leadoff hitter.
- Keep an eye on: Forrest Wall, Josh Palacios, Chavez Young, Demi Orimoloye, Eric Rivera, Justin Ammons

Starting Pitching
- Nate Pearson (2020 Age: 23): There has never, ever been any question about Pearson's arm strength, which has consistently pushed his fastball upwards of 100 MPH, but before 2019, we just hadn't been able to see much of him. A late first round pick out of the Florida JuCo ranks in 2017, he was hit by a comebacker in his first start in 2018 and missed the rest of the regular season recovering, so heading into this year we'd seen him for just 21.2 pro innings. That changed in 2019, when he put up a 2.30 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a 119/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.2 innings at High A Dunedin, AA New Hampshire, and AAA Buffalo, and now he's just about ready to contribute to the major league rotation in a big way. More of a raw arm heading into his draft year, he began to refine his all around game that year and that trend has continued into pro ball, despite the injury. He now sits in the upper 90's with his fastball and has touched as high as 104 in short stints, and he adds a slider, a curve, and a changeup. His secondaries stand out mostly for their velocity, though his upper 80's slider (which can touch 91) does have some short, hard bite and his mid 80's curveball gets nice, late downer action. Additionally, he can actually command his stuff decently well for a 6'6" power arm, giving him all the ingredients to not just be an impact starter, but a true ace. So long as he can keep his command together in the bigs, Pearson should be able to reach that ceiling and he's one of the top arms in all of minor league baseball.
- Anthony Kay (2020 Age: 25): Kay was a Mets compensation pick out of UConn in 2016, but good old Tommy John shut down his 2017 season before he made a successful comeback in 2018. Midway through 2019, he was shipped to Toronto in the Marcus Stroman deal, and between the two organizations he posted a 2.96 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 135/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 133.2 innings at AA and AAA, also putting up a 5.79 ERA and a 13/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 14 major league innings. He's a well rounded pitcher that sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and who adds a good curveball and changeup, and while his command isn't pinpoint, he does a good enough job throwing strikes and has proven durable since the surgery. It's a classic mid rotation starter profile, one who can eat innings and pitch effectively, but one that probably falls short of any top of the rotation projections. Having already pitched a few major league games in September, he has a chance to work his way into the back of that Toronto rotation out of spring training, and he should get an extended look at some point this season regardless.
- T.J. Zeuch (2020 Age: 24-25): Picked ten selections ahead of Kay in the first round of the 2016 draft out of Pittsburgh, Zeuch has proven to be a solid if unspectacular arm. In 2019, he had a 3.74 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 51/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.2 innings at High A Dunedin and AAA Buffalo, then put up a 4.76 ERA and a 20/11 strikeout to walk ratio in 22.2 major league innings in September. A 6'7" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball, he's much more of the pitch to contact type than the strikeout type, inducing a ton of ground balls with a combination of the natural downward plane he creates and the sink on his fastball. He's got a good curve that he can use off his fastball, though the rest of his arsenal is fairly fringy and is why he doesn't usually finish off strikeouts. With his solid strike throwing ability, he could very well be a #4 starter in the near future, though there are a lot of guys competing for spots and he may not get that opportunity straight out of spring training. I do see significant bullpen risk, but he could be a very effective sinker/slider guy in that role.
- Joey Murray (2020 Age: 23): Murray is an interesting one. An eighth round pick out of Kent State in 2018, his entire game is fairly fringy across the board but he's just gone out and dominated hitters everywhere he's gone. After a standout career at Kent State followed a 1.75 ERA in his pro debut in 2018, he came back in 2019 and posted a 2.75 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 169/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.1 innings at Class A Lansing, High A Dunedin, and AA New Hampshire. He doesn't have anything that really stands out about his game, but nobody can seem to hit the 6'2" righty. He sits around 90 with his fastball, adds a full set of offspeed pitches that look decent and have some nice movement at times, and throws strikes in general but shouldn't be called a control artist by any means. I think what it might be is his arm path, as he gets great extension and appears to hold onto the ball for a split second longer than hitters expect, causing them to be off balance when he does release it. He doesn't look like much of a prospect when you watch his bullpen sessions, but you don't pay pitchers to stand out on paper, you pay them to get outs, and Joey Murray gets a lot of them.
- Patrick Murphy (2020 Age: 24-25): Murphy, a third round pick out of a Phoenix-area high school way back in 2013, in the same draft as Reese McGuire, dealt with a lot of injuries early on threw just four innings from 2013-2015, including high school. Finally healthy in 2016, he began to build himself up with 90.2 innings, then threw 106.2 in 2017 and 152.2 in 2018. However, nagging injuries limited him a bit in 2019, and he finished with a 4.71 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and an 86/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 innings at AA New Hampshire. His power arm helps him sit in the mid 90's with his fastball, and he spins a really good curveball that can flash plus, two plane break when he stays on top of it. The rest of his game is fairly fringy, leading to significant bullpen risk, but he's a starter for now and does have the chance to stick there. If he can refine either his changeup or his command a bit more, he could be a #4 starter, though that fastball/curveball combination would play well out of the bullpen.
- Yennsy Diaz (2020 Age: 23): Diaz is another guy where we're not quite sure if he'll be a starter or a reliever, and his overall profile is pretty similar to Murphy's. Originally signed for $1.6 million out of the Dominican Republic back in 2014, he posted a 3.74 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 116/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 144.1 innings at AA New Hampshire this year then struggled to find the zone in his lone MLB relief appearance. Diaz is a 6'1" righty that, like Murphy, works in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good curveball, though also like Murphy, the rest of his game remains fringy. Diaz is a bit younger and has now topped 140 innings in back to back seasons, probably giving him a bit better of a chance to stick in the rotation, though I like Murphy's breaking ball better and in general think he's the better prospect. They'll both battle to claim a #4 or #5 starter's spot in the next year or two.
- Thomas Hatch (2020 Age: 25): Hatch was a Cubs third rounder in 2016 out of Oklahoma State, then he came over to the Blue Jays in the David Phelps deal in 2019. Between the two organizations, he posted a 4.12 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 127/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 135.1 innings in AA, and he kicked it into another gear with a set of really strong starts at the end of the season in the Jays organization. He only sits in the low 90's with his fastball, and adds solid offspeed stuff, but his command has been improving steadily and now might be a tick above average, whereas a year ago it was a probably below. That will help his decent arsenal play up, and it gives him a newfound chance to crack it as a #4 or a #5 starter in the near-ish future.
- Simeon Woods Richardson (2020 Age: 19): Younger than the typical high school senior, Woods Richardson was up and down as a Houston-area high schooler and landed with the Mets in the second round in 2018, then came over to the Blue Jays in the Marcus Stroman deal in 2019. Between the two organizations, he posted a 3.80 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 126/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 106.2 innings at Class A and High A, actually looking better at the higher level after the trade. Woods Richardson is looking more like the pitcher he was when he was at his best in high school, now sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adding a hard curveball with late tumbling action as well as a changeup. He also showed surprisingly advanced command in 2019, making him a really complete pitcher for a teenager who was supposed to be raw coming in. His ceiling is perhaps as high as any arm in this system not belonging to Nate Pearson, as he has plenty of time to further refine his game and work towards his top of the rotation potential. Watch him.
- Alek Manoah (2020 Age: 22): Manoah rode a huge junior year at West Virginia to becoming a first round selection in 2019, then he posted a 2.65 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 27/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings at short season Vancouver in his pro debut. He's actually not too dissimilar to where Nate Pearson was a couple years ago, so the fit makes sense for the Blue Jays. Manoah is a 6'6", 260 pound beast with one of the strongest arms in the system. His fastball sits in the mid 90's, and he took steps forward with both his slider and his changeup as a junior in 2019. The slider is now a safely above average weapon, and the changeup is a very useable pitch, so the key going forward will be further refining those pitches. His command has taken a step forward as well and is now solid-average. There's still significant refinement needed compared to other first round college arms, but he's not the velocity-only guy he was at the start of his junior season and he has #2 starter upside.
- Eric Pardinho (2020 Age: 19): I talked about Woods Richardson being a very complete pitcher for a teenager, and the same can be said about Pardinho. Pound for pound, Pardinho is as talented as any pitcher in the minors, standing at a listed 5'10" and 155 pounds. The little righty ran into some elbow problems in 2019, which caused the Blue Jays to handle him extremely cautiously, but he still posted a 2.15 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 35/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 37.2 innings between Class A Lansing and one appearance in the complex level Gulf Coast League. The elbow is supposedly not going to be an issue going forward, so assuming health, he could be in the majors at a very young age. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a really nice curveball in addition to a slider and a changeup, and unlike most teenagers, he mixes his pitches well and throws strikes with all of his offerings. He's got a lot to prove, namely durability as well as the ability to sharpen some of his secondary pitches, but he'll pitch all of 2020 at just 19 years old and knows the art of pitching well beyond his years.
- Josh Winckowski (2020 Age: 21-22): Winckowski was a little known 15th round pick out of high school in the Fort Myers area of Forida in 2016, and while the Blue Jays have had him inch along through the low minors, he's gotten better and better along the way. In 2019, he finally reached full season ball and posted a 2.69 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 108/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 127.1 innings Class A Lansing and High A Dunedin, handling the promotion well. He's a 6'4" righty that has seen a velocity bump in pro ball, now sitting comfortably in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, and he adds a slider as well as a changeup, both of which are improving. He still doesn't miss a ton of bats, instead generating a lot of ground balls, but with his combination of stuff and command, he has a good shot to work his way up as a #4 starter and potentially pass some of the more well-known names on this list.
- Adam Kloffenstein (2020 Age: 19): Kloffenstein was actually teammates with top hitting prospect Jordan Groshans in high school, and he was a third round pick out of that Houston-area school in the same 2018 draft. Held back in short season ball for his first full season, he was successful and posted a 2.24 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 64/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.1 innings for Vancouver. He's a big 6'5" righty with a great combination of stuff and pitchability, showing a low 90's sinker and a slightly harder straight fastball as well as a pair of breaking balls and a changeup. He's split his breaking ball into those two distinct pitches in the slider and curveball, both of which he shows great feel for and should be able to sharpen as he develops. He does a solid job of throwing strikes, and this all adds up to a great profile because he will spend all of 2020 at just 19 years old . Because of his age, the Blue Jays won't have a problem bringing him along slowly, and he comes with #2 or #3 starter upside when all is said and done.
- Kendall Williams (2020 Age: 19): Though they were selected out of high school a year apart, Williams is actually one day older than Kloffenstein and they share a similar profile as teenage pitchers with a great combination of floor and ceiling. Williams' brief pro debut was a strong one, as he posted a 1.13 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, and a 19/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 16 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League, and he'll start to climb the ladder in earnest in 2020. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a really good curveball in addition to a slider and a changeup, and he gets great plane on the ball that helps his pitches play up. He also fills the strike zone well for someone his age, giving him a nice set of building blocks to go off of going forward. It will be interesting to see how much he and Kloffenstein's careers parallel each other. Personally, I like Kloffenstein slightly better, but they're both more or less the same pitcher. Both could potentially move more quickly than the typical high school arms, but the Jays do like to bring their young kids along slowly.
- Keep an eye on: Zach Logue, Nick Allgeyer, Juan De Paula, Sean Wymer

Relief Pitching
- Hector Perez (2020 Age: 23-24): Acquired from the Astros in the Roberto Osuna deal, Perez is a starer for now but his command will likely push him to the bullpen, especially giving the starting pitching depth in this system. In 2019, he posted a 4.60 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 117/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 121.1 innings at AA New Hampshire, and while he could blow his stuff by lower level hitters, his lack of command has caused it all to play down against more advanced hitters. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and should sit in the higher end of that band in short stints, and he adds a whole set of secondary pitches that can drop or dive or whatever, at least when they're on. That makes him a very uncomfortable at bat in any situation, but the inconsistency in his secondary stuff as well as his complete lack of command can help hitters make the most of those at bats. If he moves to the bullpen, he won't need to be quite as consistent with those offspeed pitches for innings and innings at a time, and his command should be less of a factor as hitters won't get a chance to settle in.
- Kyle Johnston (2020 Age: 23-24): The one for one Daniel Hudson for Kyle Johnston deal could not have possibly worked out better for the Nationals, but the Blue Jays are still hoping to get something out of it. Johnston, like Perez, is still a starter, but his future is likely in the bullpen after struggling in six appearances after the trade. A former 2017 sixth round pick out of Texas, Johnston had a 4.98 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 113/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 124.2 innings in High A, though his command fell apart after the trade. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a hard cutter that's extremely difficult to square up, though the rest of his game is fairly fringy as he lacks a true breaking ball, or much of a changeup, or consistent command. That pushes him to the bullpen, where he should bump up to the mid 90's and be a strong fastball/cutter guy.
- Keep an eye on: Kirby Snead, Ty Tice, Jon Harris

Reviewing the Toronto Blue Jays Farm System

Over the past few years, the Blue Jays have transformed their farm system from more or less average to one of the best in the game by simply not having many busts. They have had a ton of guys break out over the past few seasons, and of course, none bigger than Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the best pure bat in recent memory. Vladimir Guerrero, Craig Biggio, Dante Bichette, and Jeff Conine all have kids in this system, giving the system the best bloodlines in baseball. There is more hitting talent than pitching talent here, but they're definitely not short on arms and Blue Jays fans have plenty of reasons to be excited.

Affiliates: AAA Buffalo Bisons, AA New Hampshire Fisher Cats, High A Dunedin Blue Jays, Class A Lansing Lugnuts, Short Season Vancouver Canadians, rookie level Bluefield Blue Jays, and complex level GCL and DSL Blue Jays

The Headliner: 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

19 year old Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (you might have heard of his father) is the best prospect in baseball, and unless you are absolutely enamored with Fernando Tatis Jr.'s upside, it's not really that close. Guerrero burst onto the scene in 2017 by slashing .323/.425/.485 with more walks than strikeouts in Class A and High A as just an 18 year old, then established himself as the best prospect in all of baseball by slashing .381/.437/.636 with 20 home runs and a 38/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 95 games, mostly at AA New Hampshire and AAA Buffalo, in 2018. Those are crazy numbers regardless of the context, but Guerrero was a 19 year old in the highest levels of the minors and showed elite contact, elite power, and elite plate discipline all along. This is a true middle of the order bat, one that could produce 30-40 home runs per season with on-base percentages over .400; those are MVP numbers. Defensively, he's mediocre at third base but has worked hard to remain at the position, and he could be adequate there in the long run with a little luck. However, if he has to move to first base or back to the outfield, he is such a gifted hitter that it won't be a problem. Guerrero, who turns 20 in March, will likely spend the first few weeks of the 2019 season "working on his defense" (i.e. postponing his free agency by a year) but once he is called up towards the end of April, he'll be the frontrunner for the AL Rookie of the Year Award.

High Minors Hitters: C Danny Jansen, C Reese McGuire, OF Anthony Alford, 1B Rowdy Tellez, SS Bo Bichette, 2B Cavan Biggio, and SS Santiago Espinal

Take away Guerrero, the best prospect in baseball, and the Blue Jays are still very deep in the upper minors with plenty of potential bats that could be anywhere from usable to impactful. 23 year old Danny Jansen is one of the top catching prospects in the game, following up his breakout 2017 by slashing .275/.390/.473 with 12 home runs and a 49/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at AAA Buffalo, then slashing .247/.347/.432 with three home runs in a 31 game stint in the majors. He's average defensively, but with his great plate discipline and ability to find the barrel regularly, he should be able to put it together and be a full-time starting catcher as soon as this season. In fact, if the Blue Jays don't make any moves before Opening Day, there won't be much competition for the starting catcher's spot come the beginning of the season, and Jansen could win it outright. He won't be a middle of the order hitter, but he should still be a net-positive in the lineup and that's plenty for a catcher. 23 year old Reese McGuire, the first round pick (14th overall) from the same 2013 draft that produced Jansen in the 16th round, is Jansen's primary competition behind the plate after slashing .233/.312/.339 with seven home runs and a 77/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games at Buffalo, followed by a .290/.333/.581 line with a pair of home runs in 14 major league games. McGuire is clearly the superior defender, but his bat is also clearly behind Jansen's and he looks primed for the back-up role. Together, he and Jansen will make a good tandem behind the plate in the classic bat-first starter, glove-first backup mold. Out in the outfield, 24 year old Anthony Alford has seen his development stall in the upper levels, and he slashed .238/.314/.339 with five home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 120/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games at High A Dunedin and Buffalo, also slashing .105/.190/.105 in 13 major league games. He's a speedy center fielder whose defense has kept him afloat in this stacked system, and when his bat is going, he looks like a future starter. However, that bat has been very inconsistent as he has lost control of the strike zone from time to time, and at this point he looks more like a competent fourth outfielder than a future leadoff man. However, when he's going right, he can still be a very valuable player for the Blue Jays and string together time in the starting lineup here and there. 23 year old Rowdy Tellez, the 30th round pick from that 2013 draft that produced Jansen and McGuire, slashed .270/.340/.425 with 13 home runs and a 74/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games at Buffalo, then got hot in his first taste of major league action and slashed .314/.329/.614 with four home runs in 23 games for the Blue Jays. He's a big guy at 6'4" who hits for good power and can get the bat on the ball consistently, though as a first baseman with mediocre defense, he'll have to continue to hit to earn playing time in the majors. 2019 will be the year we find out whether he can provide the requisite big numbers for the position, though to me, he looks more like a platoon bat. 20 year old Bo Bichette, the son of Dante Bichette, followed up his huge 2017 (.362/.423/.565, 14 HR, 22 SB) with another big 2018, slashing .286/.343/.453 with eleven home runs, 32 stolen bases, and a 101/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 143 games at AA New Hampshire, playing the whole season at 20 years old. He's a second baseman with a great bat, one that should produce high batting averages in the majors while hitting at least 15-20 home runs and 30-40 doubles per season. He has fantastic bat control and can find the barrel as consistently as anybody, enabling him to employ a big swing and maximize what power he has in his six foot frame. Defensively, there's a chance he could stick at shortstop, though he's just alright there and might be able to provide more value at a different position. 23 year old Cavan Biggio, son of Craig Biggio, had a breakout year this year and slashed .252/.388/.499 with 26 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 148/100 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games at New Hampshire. Biggio is a power hitter with an extremely patient approach that allows him to draw tons of walks, but which also leads to a fair amount of strikeouts. If the strikeouts turn out to be a problem at the next level, he might end up just a utility infielder, but if he can keep control of the strike zone, he profiles as an offensive-minded second baseman who could pop 20 home runs per season and draw enough walks to give him more than respectable on-base percentages, which adds up to a very valuable player. Lastly, 24 year old Santiago Espinal, acquired from the Red Sox for Steve Pearce, slashed .297/.356/.444 with ten home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 67/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games between High A and AA. He's a little bit old for a prospect who just made it out of High A, but he brings a good glove at shortstop and backs it up with a line drive bat and an advanced approach at the plate. He provides enough value on defense that there isn't too much pressure on his bat, and the fact that he could profile as a useful hitter in the major leagues makes him a prospect worth tracking. We'll have to see how he holds up over a full season in the upper minors but he could be a strong utility infielder or a fringe-average starting shortstop.

Low and Mid Minors Hitters: SS Kevin Smith, SS Logan Warmoth, OF Griffin Conine, SS Ronny Brito, SS Jordan Groshans, OF Cal Stevenson, and SS Orelvis Martinez

Lower in the minors, the Blue Jays don't quite have impact prospects like Guerrero and Bichette, but there is still some tremendous upside when you get down to the very bottom of the system. They do, though, have a ton of prospects who could potentially play shortstop (joining Bo Bichette and Santiago Espinal from the previous section), and that's one of the hardest positions to check off in a system. Up in the middle of the system, 22 year old Kevin Smith represents the best in the pack after slashing .302/.358/.528 with 25 home runs, 29 stolen bases, and a 121/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at Class A Lansing and High A Dunedin. Most of the production came at the lower level (.355/.407/.639) but he still held his own at the higher level (.274/.332/.468), and that he hit this well at all is a welcome sign for the Blue Jays. Toronto took him in the fourth round out of Maryland in 2017, where he posted just a .323 on-base percentage as a junior and struck out in over 20% of his plate appearances, showing raw power in batting practice but struggling to prove he could be more than a one-trick pony with the bat. He still doesn't draw a ton of walks and he takes his fair share of strikeouts, but he has done a much better job of getting to his power in pro ball and he pushed his on-base percentage up to .358. Defensively, he's pretty good at shortstop and may be able to stick there, taking even more pressure off his bat and giving him a real chance to be a long term starter. To do that, of course, he'll have to continue to manage the strike zone as well as he has and continue to make adjustments. Meanwhile, 23 year old Logan Warmoth, the Jays' first round pick (22nd overall) in that same 2017 draft, has had the opposite experience in pro ball, seeing his great college numbers (.336/.404/.554 as a junior at UNC) drop significantly in the minors. In 2018, he slashed .249/.330/.317 with just one home run and a 73/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 games, mostly at Dunedin, continuing to put the bat on the ball at a decent clip and get on base but seeing his power completely evaporate. I wasn't a big fan of the pick at the time and now my worries about his bat are proving to be warranted, though finding the barrel a bit more in 2019 could turn his fortunes around. He's still a competent shortstop who would be an above average defender if moved to second base, so the defense does buy the bat some slack, but he does need to start hitting soon if he wants to remain relevant in this system. 21 year old Griffin Conine (son of Jeff Conine) had a shot at being a first round pick out of Duke in 2018, but his plate discipline fell apart in the spring and he slid to the Blue Jays in the second round (52nd overall), after which he slashed .243/.314/.430 with seven home runs and a 65/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, mostly at short season Vancouver. He has a ton of raw power from a very strong frame at 6'1", but his long swing and tendency to sell out for the power hurts his ability to get to it consistently. The Blue Jays will work with him to shorten that swing and ease up on the selling out, and if they can successfully help him improve in those areas without sacrificing power, Conine could be a legitimate impact bat. I was a big fan of his before his approach fell apart in the spring, so I really hope he can get back to where he was and potentially provide 30 homer power with solidly decent defense in right field. 19 year old Ronny Brito was acquired from the Dodgers for Russell Martin this offseason, having slashed .295/.359/.496 with 11 home runs and a 78/23 strikeout to walk ratio between complex ball and rookie ball in 2018. He's a slick fielding shortstop whose bat is supposedly behind his glove, but the power outburst in the Pioneer League showed that his upside is more than just that of a utility infielder. A successful transition to full season ball as a 20 year old in 2019 could sent Brito shooting up prospect lists, as good defensive shortstops who can hit are a rarity (except in this system, apparently). 19 year old Jordan Groshans was a first round pick (12th overall) out of a Houston area high school in 2018, and he slashed .296/.353/.446 with five home runs and a 37/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games between complex ball and rookie level Bluefield. He was much better in complex ball (.331/.390/.500) than in rookie ball (.182/.229/.273), but a big showing in the Appalachian League playoffs would have pushed that rookie ball slash line up to a much more respectable .268/.333/.411. Groshans is a legitimate hitter with power, some plate discipline, and the ability to barrel the ball up consistently, and when you combine that with the potential (although not guarantee) to stick at shortstop, he's a complete player. Like Brito, he could shoot up prospect lists with a strong transition to full season ball in 2019. 22 year old Cal Stevenson was a tenth round pick out of Arizona in 2018 and likely maxes out as a fourth outfielder, but he had such a great debut that he deserves a writeup. After signing, Stevenson slashed .369/.511/.523 with two home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a fantastic 24/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games between complex ball and Bluefield, showing a tremendous feel for the strike zone as well as the ability to get the bat on the ball virtually whenever he wanted to. At a skinny 5'10", he lacks power and will likely never develop much, but anybody who can get on base at a .500 rate in the minors (and steal 21 bases in 22 tries) is worth watching regardless of the power production, so 2019 will be very interesting when he plays against more age-appropriate competition. Lastly, 17 year old Orelvis Martinez has not played professionally yet, but he signed for $3.5 million out of the Dominican Republic in July and has tremendous upside. He has a quick, powerful swing that will need some tweaking, and his advanced feel for hitting could come together with that power potential to make him an all-around impact bat. Defensively, he's pretty good at shortstop but even if he has to move to third base eventually, he should be a net-positive on defense. Overall, he's completely unproven and has a lot of work to do to reach his ceiling, but at 17 years old he'll have plenty of time to do so and could be an all-around impact player if it all works out.

High Minors Pitchers: RHP Sean Reid-Foley, RHP David Paulino, RHP Trent Thornton, RHP T.J. Zeuch, RHP Hector Perez, and RHP Elvis Luciano

The Blue Jays aren't as deep in pitching as they are in hitting, but there are still plenty of arms near the top of the minors, some of which could turn into very productive, long-term starters. 23 year old Sean Reid-Foley is a 6'3" right hander out of Jacksonville who went 12-5 with a 3.26 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 150/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 129.2 innings between AA New Hampshire and AAA Buffalo, and who then posted a 5.13 ERA and a 42/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.1 major league innings. He's a classic mid-rotation starter with a low to mid 90's fastball and a wide arrange of secondary pitches, none of which stick out as plus but all of which he mixes effectively. The command is fairly average, but when he's mixing his stuff well, SRF is tough to square up and he could be a very solid #3 or #4 starter in Toronto. 25 year old David Paulino has already made appearances for the Astros in 2016 and 2017, as well as the Blue Jays in 2018, but with just 42.2 total major league innings (5.48 ERA, 42/12 K/BB), he still qualifies as a prospect. His development has been choppy to say the least, as he has missed significant time with injuries throughout his career and was hit with an 80 game PED suspension in 2017, and in his seven minor league starts in 2018 he posted a 4.67 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 33/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings between AAA and complex ball rehab. He's a massive, 6'7" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball, a very good set of secondaries that produce swings and misses, and even pretty good command that helps it all play up. However, with all the injuries and the suspension, he hasn't been able to stay on the mound long enough to get any real traction (in eight pro seasons, he has never thrown more than 90 innings in one season), so there's a lot more risk associated with him than you'd expect given his profile. Paulino could be anything from a solid #3 starter to a middle reliever. 25 year old Trent Thornton is another former Astro, coming over this offseason for Aledmys Diaz, and he posted a 4.42 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 122/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 124.1 innings at AAA. He sits in the mid 90's and adds a pair of swing and miss breaking balls, and with his good command, he should be major league ready on Opening Day. However, his changeup has never really materialized, making the rest of his stuff play down a hair, so the Blue Jays hope that access to new pitching coaches will help him get over the hump and go from back-end starter type to legitimate #3 or #4 guy. 23 year old T.J. Zeuch was the Blue Jays' first round pick (21st overall) in 2016 out of Pittsburgh, and he posted a 3.17 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 105/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 156.1 innings at High A Dunedin and New Hampshire in 2018. He's 6'7" and sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, adding a full array of secondaries and making it work so far despite a low strikeout rate. Overall, I'm a bit worried about his transition to AAA and the majors in 2019 because the secondaries just haven't proven to be anything special yet, even with the slider standing out a bit as a go-to pitch. His ability to throw more than 150 innings in 2018 was a plus, but there's some reliever risk here if he can't take a step forward with either his secondaries or his average command. If he does take that step forward, he could be a #3 starter. 22 year old Hector Perez came over from the Astros with Paulino in the Roberto Osuna trade, posting a 3.76 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 133/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 innings between High A and AA in the two systems. He's a fireballer with a mid to upper 90's fastball and a solid set of breaking balls, generating tons of swings and misses despite mediocre command. That command is what has held him back so far, as his stuff is good enough to dominate upper-level hitters right now and is just a small step forward in consistency from dominating major leaguers as well. If he can learn to have even average command in addition to getting a little more consistent with his stuff, he's a potential #2 or #3 starter, but without adjustments he likely profiles as a hard-throwing reliever. Lastly, 18 year old Elvis Luciano has not pitched above rookie ball, but he's included in this section (rather than the low-minors section) for a very interesting reason. The Blue Jays selected him in the Rule 5 Draft, meaning that unless the Jays want to send him back to Kansas City, Luciano will have to break camp with the major league team and last the entire season in the majors. That will be a tough task for a teenager who just posted a 3.90 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 70/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings at the Royals' rookie ball affiliates, as he will completely bypass full season ball in such a way that would make Juan Soto proud. He throws a low to mid 90's fastball and a good curveball, but the rest of his game is raw (as you'd expect from an 18 year old) and he'll probably get hit hard in the majors. If he does stick, then the Blue Jays deserve a big pat on the back for adding a potential mid-rotation starter. Additionally, if he breaks camp with the team on Opening Day (lest he'd be sent back to the Royals), Luciano would not only become the first player born in 2000 to play in the majors, he'd beat out every 1999 player as well assuming that his new teammate, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., spends the first few weeks of the season in AAA "working on his defense."

Low Minors Pitchers: RHP Nate Pearson, RHP Eric Pardinho, RHP Adam Kloffenstein, RHP Sean Wymer, and RHP/1B Andy McGuire

The Blue Jays aren't nearly as deep in low minors pitchers as they are in low minors hitters or even upper minors pitchers, though two arguably the two most exciting arms in the system are in this demographic. 22 year old Nate Pearson was a first round pick (28th overall) in 2017 out of a Florida junior college, though he missed the beginning of 2018 with back problems then fractured his forearm in his first start back, ending his season with two earned runs in 1.2 innings (10.80 ERA) at High A. Pearson is a fireballing 6'6" right hander with an upper 90's fastball and a good slider, though the rest of his game needs work. His control comes and goes and he hasn't developed a consistent changeup yet, and the lost season in 2018 didn't help. However, with his top tier arm strength, it's easy to envision him piling up the strikeouts as he moves through the minors just on his two main pitches, and developing either his command or his changeup could make him a mid-rotation starter; developing both could make him a #2 or even an ace. Even if he remains the pitcher he is today, Pearson has a high floor as a hard throwing reliever whose fastball could sit right around 100 in short stints, which could make him a set-up man or even a closer. We'll see what strides he makes in 2019. 18 year old Eric Pardinho burst onto the scene in rookie ball this season, posting a 2.88 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 64/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 innings with rookie level Bluefield. Essentially just a kid, he's listed at 5'10" and just 155 pounds, but the Brazilian righty might be the best prospect ever to come out of his country now that he throws in the low 90's and adds a great curveball, a developing changeup, and better command than you would expect from someone his age and with his background. This enabled him to dominate the Appalachian League at just 17 years old, and he'll spend the whole 2019 season at just 18 years old as he transitions to full season ball and really shows us what he's made of. It's very early, but Pardinho (who was born in 2001 if you want to feel old) has ace upside. 18 year old Adam Kloffenstein was actually high school teammates with Jordan Groshans (see low minors hitters section), and now they're teammates in the Blue Jays system after Groshans was drafted 12th overall and Kloffenstein came off the board in the third round (88th overall) from Magnolia High School near Houston. Kloffenstein is a 6'5" righty who threw just two innings in complex ball this year (no earned runs, one hit, two walks, four strikeouts), bringing a low 90's fastball and a full array of secondaries to the table, all of which he commands reasonably well. He's obviously young and unproven, but Kloffenstein has a classic mid-rotation starter's profile if he can sharpen his command just a bit more, and for a high school pitcher, he really doesn't have too many adjustments he needs to make. Expect him to be a quick riser despite his age (he turns 19 at the end of the 2019 season). 21 year old Sean Wymer was the Jays' fourth round pick out of TCU in 2018 (ironically where Kloffenstein was committed to pitch collegiately), and he posted a respectable 4.84 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 34/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 35.1 innings at short season Vancouver after he signed. Wymer is a 6'1" righty whose command is ahead of his stuff, working in the low 90's and adding a full array of secondary pitches, none of which stand out. He didn't really being starting until his junior year at TCU, working as a reliever his first two seasons, so I think it will be interesting how pro coaching helps him continue that transition from reliever to starter. If it goes well, he could be a #4 or #5 guy, and he could still be useful as a long reliever if he is pushed back to the bullpen. Lastly, 24 year old Andy McGuire played in the same high school baseball program as me in 2012 and 2013, and he earns mention here for that as well as for his uniqueness as a prospect. McGuire was actually considered a second round talent for the 2013 draft, but he attended Texas instead and had a roller coaster of a career that saw him switch from infielder to pitcher, transfer out, transfer back in, sit out a season, get cut from the team, and finally make it back onto the roster as a fifth year senior in 2018. He played so well in 2018 that he earned a 28th round selection from the Blue Jays, who sent him to Bluefield as a two-way player. He slashed .275/.431/.375 with an 11/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 13 games as a hitter, and he also posted a 3.09 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 22/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings as a pitcher. Having turned 24 during the offseason, he's certainly not young as far as prospects go, but it's always interesting to have a two-way player in the minors and he has the upside as either a middle reliever on the mound or a utility/bench bat.

2018 Draft Review: Toronto Blue Jays

First 5 rounds: Jordan Groshans (1-12), Griffin Conine (2-52), Adam Kloffenstein (3-88), Sean Wymer (4-116), Christopher Bec (5-146)
Also notable: Joey Murray (8-236), Cal Stevenson (10-296), John Aiello (14-416), Andy McGuire (28-836)

Instead of focusing on upside or floor, the Blue Jays split the difference and grabbed a bunch of players early on who offered a good mix of both. I like their draft overall, and I think Jays fans should be happy with what they got here. Getting two guys from the same high school in the first three rounds is a nice bonus as well. However, third rounder Adam Kloffenstein's huge bonus (almost $1.8 million above slot) is going to make the bonus pool tight everywhere else and definitely affected their drafting strategy.

1-12: SS Jordan Groshans (my rank: 32)
This is a bit of a reach with the 12th overall pick, but since they saved $800,900 on his signing bonus, it's more excusable. For a high schooler, he offers a great mix of floor and upside, as his bat is already advanced and he has the ability to stick in the dirt. Though the bat is advanced for his age, the high schooler from outside of Houston will need some mechanical adjustments to add lift to his swing and thus power to his profile. Because he hit well against good pitching on the showcase circuit and already shows the ability to drive the ball to all fields, that shouldn't be too much of an issue. On defense, he probably won't stick at shortstop, but Toronto will give him every chance to try. He probably ends up at third base and hits 20 home runs per year with on-base percentages up around .350. Slot value was just over $4.2 million, but he signed for $3.4 million to save his team some money, which they put to his teammate in the third round.

2-52: OF Griffin Conine (my rank: 36)
Already having the sons of Vladimir Guerrero, Craig Biggio, and Dante Bichette playing together on their AA team in New Hampshire and getting fantastic results out of them, the Jays decided to add another ballplayer's kid in Griffin Conine, son of Jeff Conine. The younger Conine came into the spring with sky high expectations following a fantastic summer in the Cape Cod League (.329/.406/.537, 9 HR, 43/20 K/BB), but those high expectations may have gotten to him, as he changed his approach and struggled mightily during the first half of his junior season at Duke. His swing got long and he swung at too many pitches outside the zone, exacerbating his already present strikeout issues. However, he turned it around in the middle of the season, and his final line turned out to be pretty good: .286/.410/.608, 18 HR, 74/43 K/BB. The left handed power obviously stands out, as does the high walk rate at 15.5%. However, the strikeouts also stand out, as 26.6% is exceptionally high and it will cause issues in his transition to pro ball. The swing will have to be shortened and his approach will have to improve, but ultimately, the power, as well as the potential to be an average right fielder, stand out enough that I would definitely give him a shot. He's also young for a college junior, not turning 21 until July, so that's another bonus. Slot value is $1.35 million and he has not signed yet. Depending on how the money falls, the Jays may only be able to offer him an under-slot deal.

3-88: RHP Adam Kloffenstein (my rank: 38)
Groshans' high school teammate in Magnolia, Texas, Kloffenstein is a fantastic talent for the third round, though they did pay a first round price to get him. The 6'5" righty is durably built and should have no problems sticking in the rotation, though with that durable build comes less projection than the typical 6'5" high school arm. That's okay, because where he is at now is already really good. He can vary his fastball from a low 90's sinker to a mid 90's straight burner, and he can also change the shape of his breaking ball at will. It will probably develop into two pitches, a curve and a slider. The changeup is there as well, and it looks good at times. Combine that with good command and a late birthday (he turns 18 in August), and you have a safer bet than most high schoolers to stick in the rotation. As you can tell by my ranking, I think he's a borderline first round prospect, so getting him here is exciting. However, his $2.45 million signing bonus was nearly $1.8 million above slot, only $800,900 of which was saved on Groshans, so the Jays will have to save money elsewhere. They did already get $135,200 back on tenth rounder Cal Stevenson's under-slot deal, but there is more work to be done.

4-116: RHP Sean Wymer (my rank: 91)
I wasn't a big fan of Wymer to begin with this season, and when his shift from the TCU bullpen to the rotation produced underwhelming results, I basically wrote him off as a top 100 prospect. However, I'm intrigued just enough by his profile that I pushed him back into the top 100, and here is why. Wymer finished the season 6-3 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 15 games (10 starts), striking out 69 and walking 14 in 74 innings for the Horned Frogs. He throws his fastball in the low 90's and adds an overall average mix of a curveball, slider, and changeup. At 6'1", he lacks projectability, and I originally thought he belonged back in the bullpen. I do have a little bit of hope that he can start, as he has a durable build and good command, and I also get the feeling that he might just be getting used to starting, and with a full season under his belt and some pro coaching, he could take off in the near future and become a back-end arm in the rotation. If not, he was successful as a reliever for TCU as a sophomore (2.10 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 66/10 K/BB) and he can transition back there as a long reliever. I think he's good value in the fourth round. He has not signed yet, with his bonus pool being worth $478,600.

28-836: 1B Andy McGuire (unranked)
The Texas two way star has had a bit of a wild ride. I had the opportunity to practice alongside Andy in high school, as I was a sophomore on the JV team when he was widely being considered a top 100 prospect as an infielder for the 2013 draft. He was intent on attending Texas and slipped to the Rockies in the 36th round, didn't sign, then took the bumpiest of roads from there. In 22 games as a freshman in 2014, he slashed an abysmal .113/.210/.127, then switched to the mound full time as a sophomore in 2015, putting up a 5.25 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP over 13 appearances. In 2016, he transferred to USC Aiken in South Carolina, but transferred straight back to Texas and sat out the season due to NCAA transfer rules. After not making the Longhorns team in 2017, he got a shot as a fifth year senior in 2018 and made the most of it. In 40 games as a hitter, he slashed .263/.383/.500 with a pair of home runs and an 8/7 strikeout to walk ratio, and in 27 appearances as a reliever, he put up a 2.01 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 28/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 31 innings. The Blue Jays took him in the 28th round as an infielder, where he'll look to continue to resurrect his career. McGuire showed great plate discipline with that 8/7 strikeout to walk ratio (17%/14.9%), though in an admittedly small sample size, which is especially impressive considering his four year layoff between collegiate at bats. The talent is definitely there, and if you go back and look at MLB.com's 2013 top draft prospects list, you'll find him at number 62. He is a fantastic guy who has worked incredibly hard to be where he is today, and I wish him the best of luck with his pro career.

Others: 8th rounder Joey Murray is the latest in a long line of Kent State aces, finishing his junior season 9-2 with a 2.45 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 141/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.2 innings. While the strikeout rate is high, he doesn't throw rockets, instead sitting in the upper 80's with his fastball. He gets his swings in misses on deception and movement, as his delivery is quirky and his curve and slider both have good movement. With his mediocre command, he likely ends up a reliever, but the deception as well as the velocity boost he'll get should help him climb the ladder. 10th rounder Cal Stevenson is a college performer from the University of Arizona, finishing up his senior season with a .293/.416/.397 slash line, a home run, and a 16/35 strikeout to walk ratio as the Wildcats' leadoff man. Despite being a senior, he's actually the age of a college junior, turning 22 in September. He'll never hit for any power, limiting his ceiling to that of a fourth outfielder, but he'll provide good defense and on-base abilities. His 7.1% strikeout rate was nice and low, and when you combine that with a very good 15.6% walk rate, you get a guy who should be able to handle pro pitching with ease. 14th rounder John Aiello might be a signability risk after coming off a down year at Wake Forest, but that's okay because it is the 14th round. He was a well regarded prospect out of high school in 2015, but chose to head to campus and had a huge sophomore season in 2017 by slashing .328/.417/.643 with 20 home runs and a 76/25 strikeout to walk ratio. However, he regressed to .231/.346/.389 with eight home runs while keeping that ugly 79/25 strikeout to walk ratio, so he's definitely a risk. If he improves his plate discipline and shows that 2018 was a fluke, this is a great pick in the middle of the draft.

2018 MLB Draft: Top 15 Outfielders

There are no superstars in this year's outfield class, but there is good depth, especially if you are looking for guys who can stay in center field long term. Being a center fielder is much like being a shortstop or second baseman in that pressure is taken off the bat, and on the flip side, being a left fielder means that all of the pressure is on the bat, nearly as much as if a player was a first baseman.

1. Travis Swaggerty (South Alabama)
Swaggerty opened eyes with a big sophomore season at South Alabama (10 HR, .361/.487/.567), and while his batting average dropped in 2018, he walked a lot more, added more power, and pushed himself possibly into the top ten picks. Over 57 games, he hit 13 home runs and slashed .296/.455/.526 with an excellent 38/54 strikeout to walk ratio. He generates more power than you would think for a 5'11" guy, especially with his speed. That speed plays on both sides of the ball, as he projects to stay in center field long term, taking some pressure off his bat. Add in that he's young for a college junior and won't turn 21 until August, and you have a guy with power, patience, and speed who could impact the game in a lot of ways.

2. Jarred Kelenic (Waukesha West HS, WI)
There was buzz that the Tigers could select Kelenic first overall for an under slot deal for a while, but that has faded and he looks to go somewhere in the middle of the first round, with the top ten still being a possibility. He may be the most advanced high school hitter available, one who could slot into full season ball soon and who could work his way to the majors fairly quickly. While he doesn't have a plus tool, he does everything well, showing a very advanced approach at the plate as well as some power, speed, and good defense. If he can stay in center field, he could be a left handed Adam Eaton, but even if he slides to a corner, he'll still be an impactful player for a long time. He is a little old for the class, turning 19 in July, but he's so advanced as a hitter that that shouldn't be a problem. He's committed to Louisville.

3. Connor Scott (Plant HS, FL)
If Kelenic is the unspectacular, steady player, Scott is the exciting wild card. The Tampa native is lanky at 6'4" with plenty of room to grow into his frame, and he does everything well. While his approach is not as advanced as Kelenic's, he still has a good feel for the barrel and could grow into more power. He's extremely fast and has a cannon arm, meaning he could be an above average defender in center field, so he can impact the game on both ends of the ball. He is a little bit of a bust risk, as his swing is awkward and his power hasn't developed yet, but the swing works for him and it's not too dissimilar to former teammate and Astros first round pick Kyle Tucker's. He won't make it out of the first round and has a good shot at going in the top half, and he's committed to Florida.

4. Trevor Larnach (Oregon State)
Larnach's excellent performance this spring has had him shooting up draft boards, as he has slashed .330/.452/.632 with 17 home runs to actually overshadow possible top five pick Nick Madrigal in the Oregon State lineup at times. That power is real, as he generates elite exit velocities off the bat, so it should play up with wood bats. He does strike out a lot, but he also walks a lot, showing a power/patience combination that should carry him all the way to the majors. He also swung well in the Cape Cod League for two years, and he's overall trending hard in the right direction. He could hit his way to the majors quickly. On defense though, he's mediocre and will likely have to play left field, where he has enough bat to carry him. He'll likely come off the board before Scott.

5. Greyson Jenista (Wichita State)
Alec Bohm's teammate in Wichita is a first round prospect as well, albeit not as strong of one. He looked like a first round lock after a very good summer in the Cape Cod League (3 HR, .310/.391/.401) in which he was universally praised by coaches for his work ethic and leadership as well as his performance, but a pedestrian junior season (9 HR, .309/.446/.475) has knocked him at least to the back half of the first round if not out of it. I'm still high on him and think he'll be an impact player in time, as he has an explosive swing from a 6'4" frame that will help his power play up. He also walks a lot, and if he can improve his barrel control, he should be able to put it all together and be a complete hitter. He's athletic for his size and should be able to stay in the outfield, but he may have to move to first base if he slows down.

6. Jake McCarthy (Virginia)
Jake McCarthy, whose brother Joe is currently a prospect in the Rays system, had a very good sophomore year (5 HR, .338/.425/.506, 27 SB) and was ready to build on it in 2018 until a broken wrist cut a large chunk out of his season. I still like him as a prospect, as he has a clean, explosive swing that could generate more power if he adds some loft to go along with enough speed to stay in center field. The wrist injury makes him a bit of a wild card, and he may end up as a tweener that doesn't hit quite enough to break past AAA, but I buy the upside and think he could be an every day center fielder. He's also young for a college junior, and he's unlikely to go in the first round but should be drafted shortly afterwards.

7. Jordyn Adams (Green Hope HS, NC)
Adams is a fast rising prospect who could make this ranking look too conservative when it is all said and done. He wasn't well known heading into the season, but a huge performance at the National High School Invitational in March and continued good play afterwards have elevated him to a likely first round prospect. He's a super-athlete who is committed to North Carolina not just for baseball but for football as well, showcasing top of the scale speed that should help him stay in center field no matter how his arm and glove progress. That takes pressure off his bat, which is behind his glove but could generate power and contact when it's all said and done. His swing is long and smooth, and once he gives up football, it should get shorter and more consistent, though he does do a good job of getting the barrel into the zone early. He's ranked here but will go higher than McCarthy, probably higher than Jenista, and possibly in the same range as Scott and Larnach at best, though signability will be an issue no matter where he is drafted.

8. Mike Siani (Penn Charter HS, PA)
The Philadelphia area doesn't have much going on in terms of draft prospects, but Siani is right there in the national conversation. He is fast enough and has enough arm strength to not only stay in center field, but be very good there, taking some pressure off his bat. He'll need that pressure off, because even though he has some loft in his swing and the wheels to turn doubles into triples, he has struggled to find the barrel and will take some time to develop. If it all breaks right, I honestly see some Adam Haseley in him, and he's committed to Virginia like Haseley. He's a little old for a high school senior, turning 19 in July, and is probably a second round pick.

9. Griffin Conine (Duke)
Jeff Conine's son had a huge sophomore season (13 HR, .298/.425/.546) and then hit extremely well in the Cape Cod League (9 HR, .329/.406/.537), leading to projections that he could hit his way into the top ten picks with a good junior season. That didn't happen, as he sold out for power, his swing got long, and he struck out way too much, but he began to right the ship as the season went on and brings 15 home runs and a respectable .265/.390/.559 line into this writing. He strikes out a ton, 27.3% of the time, and that alone could be his downfall in pro ball. However, if he cleans up his approach with pro coaching, he has a good shot at being a power hitting right fielder in the middle of a major league order. He's also young for a college junior, turning 21 in July, and should go somewhere in the second round.

10. Steele Walker (Oklahoma)
Walker is an interesting prospect for more reasons than just his cool name, as he has hit better than ever during his junior year at Oklahoma (13 HR, .352/.441/.606), but hasn't seen his draft stock move up all that much. He plays the game hard and plays it smart, getting the most out of his skill set despite a relative lack of loud tools, which has led to plenty of success for the Sooners, but given that description, I'd like to see a better strikeout to walk ratio than 48/31 if I'm going to take him in the first round, as some teams have shown interest in doing. He strikes me as a bit of a tweener, a player who can't quite field enough to stay in center field but who doesn't quite hit enough for left field, so he could end up a fourth outfielder, but he also plays the game in such a way that he could surprise. He is a little bit old for his class though, turning 22 in July (quite a few July birthdays in this part of the rankings, I know). He could go anywhere from the end of the first round to the back of the second round, and likely ahead of Conine and Siani.

11. Kyler Murray (Oklahoma)
While I consider Walker a slightly better prospect, his teammate Kyler Murray is perhaps the most interesting man in the draft. A potential first round pick as a Dallas area high schooler, he was instead busy leading the famous Allen High School football program as one of the top quarterback recruits in the country to Texas A&M. Things didn't work out there and he transferred to Oklahoma, where he backed up first overall pick Baker Mayfield in Norman. Meanwhile, this paragraph is supposed to be about baseball, and I'll get to that. He had to sit out his freshman baseball season at Oklahoma due to transfer rules and slashed a miserable .122/.317/.122 as a sophomore, leading to the baseball world all but forgetting about him, but he's back out of nowhere this year. In 51 games, he has ten home runs and is slashing .296/.398/.556 with a respectable 56/28 strikeout to walk ratio given the circumstances, showing plenty of speed and the athleticism you'd expect from a two sport star. His bat is coming along nicely as well, and once (if ever) he focuses full time on baseball, he should be able to cut down that strikeout rate and bump up the walk rate. There is a lot of potential to unlock here, and to top it off, he is young for a college junior and won't turn 21 until August. He has pushed himself into the first round conversation, but he will be an extremely tough sign given that he has the opportunity to take over for Mayfield as the starting quarterback of the famous University of Oklahoma offense next fall.

12. Nick Schnell (Roncalli HS, IN)
Schnell is a high ceiling outfielder from Indianapolis who does a little bit of everything. He can run and stay in center field, taking pressure of his bat, and he has added power this spring with big bat speed and a whippy bat path. He is fairly raw at the plate, and pro coaching will need to clean up that swing, but as I said, the good defense buys him slack. He looks to go somewhere in the second round and is committed to Louisville, like Kelenic.

13. Alek Thomas (Mount Carmel HS, IL)
Thomas lacks any real standout tool but plays the game well and has a higher floor than most high school hitters. His feel to hit and defensive ability are both advanced, and if he can improve his arm strength, he'll be a good center fielder. That takes some pressure off his bat, which might need it because he lacks power and could end up a fourth outfielder if he doesn't start driving the ball with more authority. He's committed to TCU and could go as early as the end of the first round.

14. Jameson Hannah (Dallas Baptist)
Hannah may only be 5'9", but he has a lot of Denard Span in him and has shown consistent gap power this spring, slashing .363/.449/.556 with six home runs, 24 doubles, three triples, and an even 38/38 strikeout to walk ratio for the Patriots. He's fast, has shown a great feel for the barrel, and should stick in center field. If he can't cut it as a leadoff guy, he'll make a solid fourth outfielder, and should go somewhere in the second or third round.

15. Parker Meadows (Grayson HS, GA)
The younger brother of Pirates rookie star Austin Meadows, Parker isn't quite the same prospect but has high upside. His left handed swing, combined with his lean 6'4" frame, is built for knocking balls out of the park, but his feel for the barrel is subpar and will need to improve if he wants to go anywhere. With his speed and arm strength, he should be able to stick in center field, buying the contact some time to come along. He's committed to Clemson, where he could emerge as a first round pick in three years. If he chooses to sign, he's a second or third round talent.

Others: Kyle Isbel (UNLV), Tristan Pompey (Kentucky), Joe Gray Jr. (Hattiesburg HS, MS), Zach Watson (Louisiana State), Ryder Green (Karns HS, TN), Nick Decker (Seneca HS, NJ)

2018 Draft: An Early Top 10 Prospect List (1/5/2018)

Aside from a few rumors, there isn't much going on in the world of baseball, so I'm taking some time during this slow Hot Stove period to look over what looks like, for now, the top of the draft. Things will undoubtedly change between now and June, but here are my top ten prospects for now:

1. RHP Brady Singer (University of Florida). MLB.com rank: #1
Right now, Gator ace Brady Singer checks all of the boxes of a 1-1 pick, and there aren't many publications out there that don't have him in the top slot. The 6'5", 180 pound right hander had a big sophomore year with Florida last year, going 9-5 with a 3.21 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 129/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 126 innings mostly against tough SEC competition. He has an extremely quick arm that produces a hard running, deceptive, low to mid 90's fastball that only figures to get faster as he fills out his lanky frame. His slider is one of the best breaking pitches in the NCAA, as he can manipulate it's shape and speed at will to give hitters a multitude of different looks. On top of it all, he can command everything well and he is said to have great makeup, and looks to have a very good shot at ending up a number two starter if not more. At worst, I think he still cracks the back of a big league rotation. He originally hails from Eustis, Florida, outside of Orlando.
What he can do this spring: Not much. Singer just needs to stay healthy and keep doing what he has been doing, and he'll remain a frontrunner for 1-1.

2. LHP Matthew Liberatore (Mountain Ridge HS, AZ). MLB.com rank: #3
I am a huge fan of Matthew Liberatore, a 6'5" high school left hander out of the Phoenix area. In my four years of following the draft closely, he is the first pitcher to remind me of Clayton Kershaw right off the bat. Liberatore is currently pitchability over stuff, but I can see him having plus stuff when all is said and done, combining the two traits in a similar way to Kershaw. He throws his fastball in the low 90's and has an excellent, diving changeup well advanced beyond most high schoolers. His curveball isn't quite the pitch his fastball and changeup are, but it has good shape and spin rate, and if he adds power, it will be a third plus pitch. Around it all, like Singer, he has great command. His pitching motion could use some work, as he doesn't quite get all of his momentum going towards the plate, but that's fixable. The similarities with Kershaw are there: handedness, build, stuff (Kershaw throws low 90's as well), command, and even drop and drive pitching mechanics. Kershaw's curve has more power and he also throws an excellent slider, but Liberatore is Kershaw lite. He is committed to the University of Arizona.
What he can do this spring: If he takes a step forward with his curveball while maintaining the rest of his skill set, he could challenge Singer for the 1-1 spot.

3. RHP Ethan Hankins (Forsyth Central HS, GA). MLB.com rank: #2
There aren't many publications that list Ethan Hankins as anything but the top high school pitcher in the country, but his ranking behind Liberatore here speaks more to how much I like Liberatore than anything about Hankins. Hankins is a 6'6" right handed pitcher from high school on the outskirts of the Atlanta suburbs, and he has arguably the most electric arm in this draft. He throws a running mid 90's fastball that hits 98 and could top out at 100 by the time he fills out his frame, and unlike most power high school arms, he can actually control it. Like Liberatore, he also has an advanced changeup, though his biggest area for improvement comes with his two breaking pitches. His curveball and slider both look good at times, and his curveball has especially good shape, but they lack power and are average at this point. All of that together helped him dominate the 18 and Under World Cup this past summer more than any other prospect. If he develops one or both breaking pitches, he could be a top of the rotation starter, but he has a bit of a lower floor should his command unravel, with his realistic floor being that of a power reliever. Hankins is committed to Vanderbilt.
What he can do this spring: Without improving one of his breaking pitches, he probably has a better chance to go in the 3-6 range, but improving either his slider or curveball to plus could make him the first high school right hander ever to go first overall.

4. RHP Casey Mize (Auburn University). MLB.com ranking: #8.
I promise some hitters are coming, but the top of this draft is just filled with great pitchers. Auburn ace Casey Mize lacks the ceiling of those above him on this list, but he has dominated college hitters unlike almost anybody else in the league. In 13 games (12 starts) for the Tigers this past spring, Mize went 8-2 with a 2.04 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 109/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 83.2 innings, mostly against tough SEC hitters. Aside from Singer, Mize might be the most advanced pitcher in this draft, showing excellent command of a mid 90's fastball, a plus splitter, and a very good slider. The 6'3" right hander is a bulldog on the mound, and though he doesn't figure to gain much velocity,  he's excellent where he is now. His whole arsenal, with his command, could play in the major leagues in the very near future, but he has one flaw that causes teams to take a second look; durability. Mize seemed to run out of gas towards the end of the spring collegiate season and was shut down, and when he tried to ramp it back up over the summer, he strained his forearm and had to be shut down again. An optimist could say that professional conditioning regimens could be just what he needs, but the truth is that Mize has not proven that he can handle a 100 inning workload, let alone a 200 inning workload. He has the makings of a mid rotation starter, and if he stays healthy, he is very likely to reach that potential. Mize comes from Springville, Alabama, outside of Birmingham.
What he can do this spring: All Mize needs to to is stay healthy. I have a hard time seeing him go 1-1 no matter what he does due to his lack of a high ceiling, but a healthy Mize who maintains his stuff and velocity all through the spring has a very good chance of going in the top five.

5. 2B/SS Nick Madrigal (Oregon State University). MLB.com ranking: #11
Finally, we have the first hitter on our list. The first thing anybody notices about Madrigal is his size: at 5'7" and 160 pounds, he always one of the smallest guys on the field, but Astros second baseman Jose Altuve might be the best thing that ever happened to him. With Altuve proving that little guys can rake, Madrigal's draft stock is much higher than it might have been had he come around a few years earlier. Oregon State was the best team in the country for most of the season, and Madrigal played a huge part in that by slashing .380/.449/.532 with 20 doubles, two triples, four home runs, and 16 stolen bases in 60 games. He also proved to have an excellent approach at the plate, walking 27 times while striking out just 16 times, good for 9.6% and 5.7% of his plate appearances, respectively. Despite his small size, he does have nearly average power, coming from a quick bat that he deploys against a stiff front leg. If he wants to improve that power, he could benefit from gaining more ground with his stride, but a guy his size should maximize his ability to spray line drives around the field, something he does very well. In the field, he's a second baseman right now, though his arm may just be strong enough for shortstop. Either way, he's a very valuable asset, one who should at least hit for average in the major leagues due to his excellent approach. He originally comes from Elk Grove, California, just south of Sacramento.
What he can do this spring: Madrigal likely isn't going to grow any more, so aside from a surprise outburst of power, the best thing Madrigal can do for his draft stock is to keep spraying line drives all over the field and maybe add a few more walks, as 9.6% is good but not amazing.

6. 3B Nolan Gorman (O'Connor HS, AZ). MLB.com ranking: #4
The players who in my opinion are the best high school hitter and best high school pitcher, respectively, in the class, go to school just ten minutes apart in the northern Phoenix suburbs. While Matthew Liberatore will draw scouts by the dozens to Mountain Ridge High School, neighboring Sandra Day O'Connor High School will have it's own share of scouts to see power hitting third baseman Nolan Gorman. At 6'1", Gorman is a bit undersized for a pure power hitter, but the MLB All Star Game High School Home Run Derby champion can blast home runs with the best of them. He has extremely quick hands that help him maximize the power coming from his thick build, though he does sometimes appear uncomfortable at the plate. This has led to worries from scouts as to how his power will translate up, and I myself have noticed that he gets his hands back fairly late, something he'll have to fix against advanced pitching. When your bat is as quick as Gorman's it's often easier to make these adjustments, but it is something to watch. If all goes right, he could hit 30-40 home runs annually in the majors. Like Liberatore, Gorman is committed to the University of Arizona.
What he can do this spring: Gorman needs to show a better approach at the plate, so keeping his strikeouts down and drawing lots of walks would be good for him. A home run off rival Matthew Liberatore would be a nice bonus.

7. OF Jarred Kelenic (Waukesha West HS, WI). MLB.com ranking: #12
Wisconsin isn't typically a hotbed for talent, but they've had a nice run with first rounder Gavin Lux and second rounder Ben Rortvedt in 2016, followed by first rounder Jeren Kendall (Wisconsin native playing at Vanderbilt) in 2017, and finally Jarred Kelenic this year. Kelenic may be a bit old for his class with a July birthday, but he's a five tool player who could contribute in multiple categories at the big league level. He's an excellent pure hitter, using a clean swing to spray line drives and extra base hits all over the field while knocking his share of home runs. He doesn't get fooled at the plate, and he won't need as much time adjusting to the low minors as, for example, a Nolan Gorman-type. He's also a very good defensive outfielder, and while he may not stick in center, he could provide plenty of value in right. If it all breaks right, Kelenic could be an annual 20-20 threat while posting on-base percentages approaching .400. He is committed to the University of Louisville.
What he can do this spring: Kelenic is a great all-around player who doesn't shine in any particular place, so I think the best tool for him to improve this spring would be power. Listed at 6'1" and 195 pounds, he has a wiry, athletic frame that could produce more than the average power he has now. Some big moonshots in front of scouts could push him towards the top five.

8. SS Brice Turang (Santiago HS, CA). MLB.com ranking: #7
Southern California native Brice Turang has been a top prospect for years, and he could find himself drafted in the top ten picks in 2018. Like Kelenic, Turang is more of an all-around player than one with standout tools, though he's not exactly the same. First off, he's a shortstop (and a good one at that), and he is faster than Kelenic. On the flip side, his bat isn't quite as developed, as he shows a whippy swing from a lean frame but was up and down over the summer. I like that swing, and I think he could hit for power and average in the majors, but it'll take some work to get there. Turang is committed to Louisiana State.
What he can do this spring: Of primary focus for Turang should be to show more consistency at the plate than he did over the summer. That would solidify his ranking in the top ten. If he does that while adding the power I believe he is capable of adding, he'll jump back into the top five where he was ranked before the summer.

9. SS/3B Nander De Sedas (Montverde Academy, FL). MLB.com ranking: #6
Nander De Sedas is a high school switch hitter with a good balance of above average power and above average contact, and while it's not as certain as with Turang, he could stick at shortstop. De Sedas has a clean swing that enables him to reach that balance, though his mechanics can get a bit inconsistent due to his switch hitting, which is normal for high schoolers. He gets dinged a little bit due to his early birthday, like Kelenic's a July one, but his combination of approach, power, and defensive value isn't easy to come by. If he has to move off shortstop, he does have the arm to stick at third base. De Sedas is committed to Florida State.
What he can do this spring: Two areas where De Sedas could conceivably improve are on defense and with power. If he emerges from the winter having worked hard on improving his range at shortstop, teams can safely draft him as a shortstop and see him as a future Francisco Lindor (who also attended the Montverde Academy), albeit with less speed. Adding power could also help his bat profile better at third base should shortstop not work out, and his plate discipline would make him an attractive alternative to Nolan Gorman.

10. RF Griffin Conine (Duke University). MLB.com ranking: #19
Former Marlins and Orioles star Jeff Conine's son Griffin is looking like one of the top bats in this year's college class. After a forgettable freshman season (0 HR, .205/.306/.247), Conine broke out in a big way by socking 13 home runs and slashing .298/.425/.546 as a sophomore, striking out 45 times while walking 41 times in 58 games. He continued that production over into the prestigious Cape Cod League, where he slashed .329/.406/.537 with nine home runs and a 43/20 strikeout to walk ratio in 42 games, and scouts named him the league's top prospect. I'm personally a huge fan of Conine, as he generates his plus power from a strong 6'1" frame while keeping his bat in the zone for a long time. He could use to add some more loft, but I like the way his swing has come along so far, and doing so could turn him into a legitimate 30+ home run threat. He's a patient hitter, which enabled him to post on-base percentages above .400 in both his predominantly-ACC collegiate season and his Cape Cod season, but he does also swing and miss quite a bit. That's his only flaw on offense. Defensively, he should be a very good right fielder, showcasing more speed than typical for a power hitter as well as a very good arm. To top it off, he's a little younger than the typical college junior, not turning 21 until July. He's originally from the Fort Lauderdale, Florida area.
What he can do this spring: Conine has the power and he's trending in the right direction, so aside from continuing this trend, I think the best thing he can do is to cut down his strikeouts. 16.8% in his collegiate season and 23% in the Cape Cod League aren't astronomically high as they are, but cutting that regular season rate down to 10-15% could do wonders for his draft stock, as teams will be much more confident that he can tap into his raw power.

Just missed: LHP Shane McClanahan (South Florida), LHP Ryan Rolison (Mississippi), RHP Logan Gilbert (Stetson), OF Greyson Jenista (Wichita State), OF Travis Swaggerty (South Alabama)