The Blue Jays went pitching-heavy this year, selecting arms with their first five picks and nine of their first ten. Even though they did not have a second round pick due to signing George Springer, they managed to make a few picks that I really liked, most notably their first pick in Gunnar Hoglund, who in my opinion was one of the top arms in the entire class. Toronto did select two Canadians in 14th and 16th rounds, though Abbotsford native Micah Bucknam did not sign and will instead attend Washington for school. Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
1-19: RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi. My rank: #12. I'm a huge fan of this pick, especially considering they got him below slot. Gunnar Hoglund has been on prospect radars for a while, and his ability to command a high velocity fastball got him drafted 36th overall by the Pirates, but he did not sign. Hoglund settled in as one of the best strikethrowers in the SEC over the next two seasons, walking just 18 batters in 91.1 innings as a 19-20 year old by pulling back a bit on his velocity. I went to his first start of the 2021 season against Texas Tech (which I wrote about at length here), and everything changed. After sitting 88-92 as an underclassman, he came out firing and touched 96 in the first inning, holding 90+ velocity for the entire start and in fact, for the entire season. That increased velocity came from the same simple, easy delivery he's always shown, and he maintained plus command throughout the season. That led to a 2.87 ERA and a 96/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 62.2 innings. The 6'4" righty also tightened up his slider this year, bumping it into the mid to upper 80's and earning some plus grades at his best, and also took a big step forward with a changeup that looks like an above average pitch as well. All of that had him trending towards the top ten picks, and in fact he ranked as high as eighth on my midseason lists, but unfortunately he went down with Tommy John surgery in May. While that's obviously a crushing blow, I'm honestly not too worried. Nowadays, it seems like almost everybody is getting TJ at some point anyways, and while that still doesn't make it a good thing, at least it's happening now rather than in pro ball when he's knocking on the door to the majors. Hoglund is also so advanced in so many facets of pitching that once he's healthy again, even though he'll be 22 and a half years old, he should be able to move quickly and still reach the majors in a reasonable timeframe. If his stuff and command come all the way back, I see a pretty high floor as a back-end starter and a more likely outcome as a #3 guy. The Tampa-area native signed for $3.25 million, which was about $110,000 below slot value.
3-91: LHP Ricky Tiedemann, Golden West JC [CA]. My rank: #134. Ricky Tiedemann was eligible last year and ranked 75th on my list, and after teams would not reach his signing bonus demands, he switched his commitment from San Diego State to Long Beach City College to be eligible for the draft this year. When LBCC cancelled its baseball season due to COVID fears, he transferred quickly to Golden West JC and put up a 3.55 ERA and a 60/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 innings. His fastball has ticked up slightly into the low 90's, topping out around 93-94 at its best, while his slider has gotten more consistent and looks like an average pitch. His changeup remains his main weapon, coming in with great fade from his low three quarters arm slot and earning some plus grades. The 6'4" lefty is generally around the zone, but he struggles to command within it and his stuff isn't quite crisp enough to avoid getting hit hard when he leaves pitches over the plate. His proponents will point to the projection in his frame and the looseness of his delivery that will allow him to add velocity, while his detractors will wonder if he'll ever miss enough bats to be more than a back-end starter or a reliever. The Blue Jays are likely in that first camp, and the fact that he's extremely young for a college freshman (still 18 for a few more weeks) should help him continue to add power to his stuff. The southern California native signed for $644,800, which was $2,500 below slot value.
4-121: RHP Chad Dallas, Tennessee. My rank: #159. Chad Dallas is a relatively safe pick in the fourth round, albeit one without a ton of upside. He began his career at Panola JC, then followed the Alerick Soularie path from the Texas JUCO ranks to Tennessee. After making a strong impression as a sophomore in 2020 (2.53 ERA, 21/6 K/BB), he was the Volunteers' most consistent starter this year and finished with a 4.19 ERA and a 122/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings, facing a tough schedule with a hitter-friendly home park. "Cheese" Dallas attacks hitters with a low 90's fastball that has reached as high as 97 in the past, adding in a full set of secondaries with an above average slider, an average curve, and a seldom-used changeup. The 5'11" righty is a bit undersized, but his competitiveness and above average command enable him to power through lineups and pitch deep into ballgames. It looks like a high probability back-end starter, or he could wind up in the bullpen with his fastball/slider combination. It does help that he's relatively young for the class and only turned 21 in June. The southeast Texas native signed for $497,500, which was $23,800 above slot value.
5-152: RHP Irv Carter, Calvary Christian HS [FL]. My rank: #74. This is another pick I really like for the Blue Jays. Irv Carter may have been the third player drafted off his own high school team, but in the fifth round, I think he represents the best value. Carter has a big right arm that fires fastballs in the low 90's and has been clocked up to 94, but most evaluators agree that there is plenty more in the tank. He attacks hitters with a hard, above average slider that can show plus bite at its best, and he's shown relatively advanced feel for his changeup as well, though the latter needs to gain more consistency. A fringy curveball is currently a fourth pitch The 6'4" righty is very animated on the mound, breaking out numerous different deliveries to mess with hitters' timing. His primary delivery features a short pause right before foot strike, but sometimes he'll add an extra tap in his windup, shimmy at the top, or add a second leg lift. That partly contributes to fringy command, as changing up his lower half mechanics pre-pitch often leads to inconsistent lower half mechanics mid-delivery, and his upper body sometimes doesn't catch up while his lower half is off doing its thing. The Blue Jays will want to smooth that out and get him consistent with a single, normal delivery, then perhaps let him go back to changing things up once he's comfortably repeating his mechanics. There is a ton of natural talent here, from the strong frame to the excellent feel to spin the baseball, and Toronto is really buying into the upside. A Miami commit, the south Florida native instead signed for $850,000, which was $499,700 above slot value.
6-182: RHP Hayden Juenger, Missouri State. Unranked. The Blue Jays see a fast-moving reliever in Hayden Juenger, who served as Missouri State's closer this year and put up a 3.86 ERA and a 31/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 innings. There's not a ton of video available on him, but the 6' righty does have a smaller frame and an uptempo delivery that will likely keep him in the bullpen. He can bring it with a mid 90's fastball that serves as his primary weapon, also keeping hitters off balance with a slider and a changeup. Juenger is extremely young for the class and will only turn 21 shortly after this review is published, so Toronto will have that much extra time to develop his fresh arm in their system. College relievers do not have a great track record early in the draft, but the St. Louis-area native's youth and arm strength still intrigue the Blue Jays here, where they feel they're deep enough into the draft to go after an electric arm. He signed for $197,500, which was $70,700 below slot value.
12-362: 3B Riley Tirotta, Dayton. Unranked. Riley Tirotta is an interesting one, and someone who was on my radar before the draft but who I just didn't get around to. A fourth year player, had he been willing to accept a lower signing bonus, he probably could have gone in the top six or seven rounds given that he was a favorite among Midwest area scouts. Tirotta was inconsistent over his first three years at Dayton but put it all together in 2021, slashing .337/.450/.696 with 16 home runs and a 36/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games. The South Bend, Indiana native employs a big right handed uppercut that helps him tap his above average power very consistently in games, and he cut his strikeout rate to 16.2% during his breakout this year. Throw in plus speed that has enabled him to steal 43 bases in 162 career games, and you have someone who can impact the game in a lot of ways. The catch is that most of his damage has come against so-so A-10 pitching, and he did struggle in the Cape Cod League back in 2019. The debate rages as to whether he's a legitimate impact hitter that's simply unproven against better pitching, or if he's really an organizational depth guy who just beat up on a weaker schedule. The Cape numbers my point to the latter, but the Blue Jays will counter that it was a 19 game sample two years ago. Defensively, he has the speed to play the infield, but it doesn't necessarily translate out there and he could be a candidate to move to the outfield if third base doesn't work out. Set to turn 23 in August, he's on the older side, and he signed for $125,000.
14-422: 3B Damiano Palmegiani, Southern Nevada JC. Unranked. The Blue Jays selected two Canadians this year, but only one signed. Damiano Palmegiani grew up in Surrey in the Vancouver area, then played his high school ball at the Vauxhall Academy boarding school in rural southern Alberta. After playing his freshman year at Cal State Northridge, he transferred to the College of Southern Nevada this year and absolutely mashed, slashing .389/.532/1.360 with 26 home runs and a 38/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. He generates big raw power from the right side, a product of the strength in his 6'1" frame and the leverage he creates with a strong base and kinetic chain. There's a slight hitch in his swing that leads to a slightly longer path to the baseball, which did not hurt him in the slightest this year but could be an issue in pro ball. While his 13.4% strikeout rate was low against junior college competition, the arms out west aren't quite as strong as the ones in Texas or Florida and certainly not as tough as an SEC or Pac-12 schedule. He did hit .304/.403/.482 with a 17/8 strikeout to walk ratio against better pitching in the MLB Draft League, but struck out 25.8% of the time. Defensively, he's going to need a lot of work if he wants to stick at third base, with the outfield a more likely outcome. He's an average runner so left field is probably where he ends up, where his bat will have to carry him. Palmegiani signed for $157,500, of which $32,500 counts against the bonus pool.
17-512: LHP Cooper Benson, Arizona State. Unranked. Arizona State was excited to get Cooper Benson to campus, but he'll be leaving Tempe with only 27 innings under his belt. After looking strong in twenty innings as a freshman, he left his second start with an injury and ultimately went down with Tommy John surgery. It's hard to have looked better than he did, however, tossing seven shutout innings between the two starts while allowing just two hits and no walks while striking out ten of the 23 Sacramento State and Hawaii batters he faced. Benson has a fastball around 90 and adds an average curve and an above average changeup that plays very well off his fastball. He curls his arm behind his back in his delivery, creating nice deception and making it hard to pick it up out of his hand. The San Luis Obispo, California native filled up the strike zone this year, though it's always a question how that will hold up once he gets back from surgery, especially considering he was just a sophomore and only turned 21 the day this was published. The Blue Jays are buying into that hot start to the season and hoping they uncovered a gem that was on his way to a breakout. The 6' lefty signed for $125,000.
The draft is almost here, so I'll be updating this story one more time. The Nationals pick at #11 and have been almost exclusively tied to arms, so that will be the focus here, but I do see three to four bats that could make sense if the Nationals want to buck some trends (and make me happy).
First, I'll give my opinion on who I think the Nationals should draft. There are six players who I would give virtually no chance of reaching the Nationals, and those are high school shortstops Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, Brady House, and Kahlil Watson, in addition to Vanderbilt righthander Jack Leiter and Louisville catcher Henry Davis. If one of those falls to #11, the Nationals should 100% snatch one up if the signing bonus is remotely reasonable. There's also Vanderbilt ace Kumar Rocker, who is very unlikely to be available at #11, but he seems to have at least a sliver of a chance of getting down there and I absolutely don't see the Nationals passing him up if he's available. I'd go for it in that case as well. Jackson Jobe seems to be in the same boat, but prep righthanders tend to slide in the draft and if he's available with a remotely reasonable signing bonus, again I think the Nationals should pounce. In the event that all eight are gone, which is likely, there are two college bats I think the Nationals should focus on. I'd take Boston College outfielder Sal Frelick out of the remaining players, and if he's gone along with the other eight, I'd go with UCLA shortstop Matt McLain. Then in the unlikely scenario that those are the top ten picks, I'm a bit lost because I think there's a slight break in the quality of players, so I would either pick Will Bednar or just grab Gunnar Hoglund, sign him below slot, then overspend at pick #47. Below is what would be my board if I were the Nationals picking at #11, not what I think their board is, color coded by how likely they are to be available. Red is definitely not, orange is probably not, yellow is 50-50, and green is most likely.
Marcelo Mayer, Jack Leiter, Henry Davis, Brady House, Kahlil Watson,Kumar Rocker, Jackson Jobe, Sal Frelick, Matt McLain, Will Bednar, Gunnar Hoglund
Without further introduction, here are the ten players I think the Nationals are most likely to end up with at #11, ordered by likelihood. I'm not a reporter, so these are more just guesses than anything else. Slot value is just over $4.54 million and the Nationals' overall bonus pool for their top ten rounds is $8.77 million.
1. RHP Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS, OK As I said in the previous paragraph, I don't think Jackson Jobe will make it out of the top ten, as he's getting interest as high as #3 to the Tigers. However, in the event that he does, I can absolutely see Mike Rizzo smashing Jobe's name into the keyboard or doing whatever he does to make his picks with extra zeal. The Oklahoma City product is relatively new to pitching, but his name has been rocketing up boards ever since his dominant summer a year ago. His fastball is now sitting comfortably in the low to mid 90's and has touched 98, but that's not his main weapon. Jobe's slider is arguably the best breaking ball in the entire high school class, coming in with absurd spin rates that cause it to shoot down and away from righties or into lefties at the last second. That feel for spin translates to his curveball, which is a distinct and above average pitch in its own right, and he possesses one of the better changeups in the high school class as well. Together with a clean delivery and notable athleticism, he consistently deals strikes and really has all the ingredients to be an impact starting pitcher. Aside from his demographic, that of an inherently risky high school righthander, Jobe only has one thing working against him – age. He'll turn 19 a few weeks after the draft, making him one of the older players in the class, but everything else is so good that that should not be a factor. He'll likely demand an enormous signing bonus, probably the highest on this list of ten, to keep from attending Mississippi, where he'll be draft-eligible as a sophomore in 2023.
2. RHP Ty Madden, Texas 2021 stats: 7-5, 2.45 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 137/44 K/BB in 113.2 IP. While he is getting some looks in the back of the top ten and could end up in Colorado at #8 or Los Angeles at #9, there is a very good shot that Ty Madden is available for the Nationals at #11. The unquestioned ace of the most complete pitching staff in the country (sorry, Vanderbilt), Madden is everything the Nationals love – a big, durable, consistent performer who has the look of a mid-rotation starter. He combines arm strength with pitchability, creating the type of pitcher that does not grow on trees. Madden's fastball comes in with low to mid 90's velocity, getting up to 99 at times early in games, and he adds a potentially plus slider that plays very well off his fastball. His changeup can be a bit inconsistent, but when it's on, it gives him a third potentially above average pitch, which will help him pitch deep into games. He commands all three pitches very well, pounding the bottom of the strike zone and missing bats in bunches. If there's anything to nitpick with the Houston-area native, it's something called his VAA, or vertical approach angle. Because the 6'3" righty comes from such a high release point, everything he throws has significant downward plane, which plays very well around hitters knees and below. However, he has gotten hit harder when he leaves pitches up, and in today's launch angle-conscious game that has more hitters going for high VBA's – vertical barrel angles, – it will be especially difficult for him to be effective in that part of the zone in pro ball. Fortunately, his command means that he won't miss his spots often, and his velocity gives him some margin for error.
3. RHP Sam Bachman, Miami [OH] 2021 stats: 4-4, 1.81 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 93/17 K/BB in 59.2 IP. Sam Bachman's draft outlook is probably about the same as Madden's with some teams interested in the back of the top ten but a good chance of reaching #11. If both he and Madden are available for the Nationals, it will be an interesting decision for Rizzo, as both pitchers seem to fit his models but for very different reasons. While Madden is durable and consistent, Bachman is more of a power arm that comes with significant durability questions, but we know Rizzo has never been one to shy away from injured or potentially-injury prone arms. Bachman's raw stuff is elite, perhaps the best in the entire class outside of the Vanderbilt duo of Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker. The 6'1" righty deals regularly in the mid 90's with his fastball and has touched as high as 101, but it's not just the velocity that makes it a special pitch. He also comes from an extremely low release point while still maintaining a three quarters arm slot, putting tremendous ride on the pitch that makes it play exceptionally well up in the zone. And with his velocity, even when he misses over the plate, it's tough to square up. Bachman also adds a plus slider that breaks late and tight, playing well off the fastball. As with Madden, his changeup has been a bit less consistent, but it too flashes above average and like Madden, he could have three plus pitches at the major league level. While he doesn't quite parallel the Longhorn ace in the command arena, his ability to hit his spots is trending upwards and he fills up the strike zone very consistently, setting himself apart from other data-friendly power arms. The drawback here is durability, as the Indianapolis-area native throws with considerable effort and some evaluators don't like his arm action. Additionally, he missed a few weeks this spring with arm soreness and I don't think he ever threw 100 pitches in a game, so he comes with considerable relief risk even if the pure stuff and command fit in the rotation. Personally, I'd pull the trigger on Bachman before Madden, but I'm not sure about Rizzo.
4. SS Matt McLain, UCLA 2021 stats: 9 HR, .333/.434/.579, 9 SB, 34/34 K/BB in 47 games. Jackson Jobe, Ty Madden, and Sam Bachman seem like the clear frontrunners to me, so after those three this list definitely becomes guesswork. If the Nationals were to pass on an arm and pick up a bat, UCLA shortstop Matt McLain seems like the most likely bet to me. He was extremely well regarded coming out of his Los Angeles-area high school, but surprisingly turned down the Diamondbacks after being drafted 25th overall in 2018. His time at UCLA has been up and down, but there have been more ups and than downs and he was on a tear before going down with a broken thumb in May, then picked up where he left off in a brief return. Though he's just 5'11" and skinny at that, he has always possessed great feel to hit and has learned to drive the ball more and more consistently throughout his time in Los Angeles, now projecting for at least average power. He also tightened up the strike zone in 2021, aiding projections for a plus hit tool, and his plus speed enables him to be a factor on the basepaths. The jury is still out on whether he can stick at shortstop long term, as he has the athleticism to profile there but his feel for the spot has been inconsistent. Either way, he profiles as a plus defender at second base, so you're getting significant value on the defensive side to go along with his top-of-the-lineup offensive upside. Personally, I'd prefer McLain over both Madden and Bachman.
5. RHP Will Bednar, Mississippi State 2021 stats: 9-1, 3.12 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 139/26 K/BB in 92.1 IP. When I first started working on this list, I didn't include Will Bednar, despite the fact that I personally would have considered him at #11 if I were picking. However, after dominating at the College World Series and allowing no hits in the final game, he seems to be much more of a realistic target for Mike Rizzo and co. Bednar has been trending straight up since he landed in Starkville with a 2.93 ERA and a 37% strikeout rate (162 in 107.2 innings) against top competition, and he can attack hitters in a lot of ways. His main weapon is a low to mid 90's fastball that can hit 96-97 early in games but usually settles into the 91-94 range, playing up because it has tremendous riding life that plays extremely well up in the zone. He adds a plus slider with extreme horizontal sweep, then can go to an average curve and changeup that he uses significantly less often. While the Pittsburgh-area native doesn't have pinpoint command, he generally fills up the strike zone and has gotten better at locating his pitches to all four quadrants even as his stuff has leapt forward. He has a durable 6'2" frame and looks the part of a #2 starter.
6. OF Sal Frelick, Boston College 2021 stats: 6 HR, .359/.443/.559, 13 SB, 28/27 K/BB in 48 games. Sal Frelick's draft stock is in a similar place to McLain's, if perhaps a tick better, and I would prefer Frelick if both he and McLain were available. In fact, among the players with any significant chance to reach the Nationals at pick #11, Frelick is the one I want. He elevated his profile this year by coming out of the gate hot when most other first round bats stumbled, and he maintained the hot hitting to finish the season hitting .359/.443/.559 with just a 12.3% strikeout rate. Undersized at 5'9", he's an elite athlete that plays with a ton of energy, giving him the ability to impact the game in numerous ways. He makes a ton of contact with plus bat to ball skills and excellent adjustability in his left handed swing that helps him find the barrel even against tough pitches, and when he gets one over the plate, he has enough power to make you pay. The Boston-area native is a plus runner that will gladly steal a base or two and will stick in center field, though some have toyed with trying him at second base. Personally, I'd just leave him at center and let him run wild. If the Nationals drafted him, he would immediately become the most dynamic player in their system.
7. RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi 2021 stats: 4-2, 2.87 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 96/17 K/BB in 62.2 IP. #11 overall might be a bit early to nab a pitcher fresh off spring Tommy John surgery, but Mike Rizzo has never shied away from injured pitchers early in the draft and depending on who's available here, I wouldn't mind the pick either. Aside from a healthy right arm, Gunnar Hoglund has everything you look for in a starting pitching prospect – velocity, two offspeed pitches, command, a clean delivery, consistent performance, and an upward trajectory. His fastball previously sat effortlessly around 90, but the 6'4" righty added some juice in 2021 and ticked up to about 92-94, touching as high as 97 early in games. After mostly pitching off his fastball early in his career, he began to lean more on an improved slider in 2021 that touched the upper 80's, getting consistently above average grades. And as the season moved on, he began incorporating a surprisingly good changeup more and more, giving him three above average pitches to work with. On top of all of that, he has regularly been noted as having some of the best command in the class, easily locating all of his pitches where he wants them. There are no weaknesses in this profile and given that Tommy John is becoming more and more of a regularity, the Tampa-area native could present Rizzo with a really interesting discount option. From there, Mike can overspend at pick #47, perhaps on a high school arm like Frank Mozzicato, Ben Kudrna, or Maddux Bruns, though I would personally prefer Mozzicato or Kudrna to Bruns (and I'd prefer a high school bat over all three of them, though I doubt Rizzo would go that route).
8. OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State 2021 stats: 16 HR, .374/.490/.680, 17 SB, 32/42 K/BB in 55 games. Fun fact, Colton Cowser was actually teammates with Ty Madden at Cypress Ranch High School in the Houston suburbs, and they were actually the third and fourth best prospects on that team at the time behind 2019 draftees JJ Goss (Rays, 36th overall) and Matthew Thompson (White Sox, 45th overall). He's been on a tear since late March, once homering four times in two games and another time going deep in five consecutive games, all while pushing his on-base percentage close to .500. Evaluators have long been waiting for him to grow into his 6'3" frame and start tapping his power, and he showed this year he has a chance to be average in that regard. Cowser is also an excellent contact hitter who consistently puts together professional at bats, showing that with significantly more walks (42) than strikeouts (32) in 2021. Though he wasn't facing the toughest competition in the Southland Conference, he did perform well with the US Collegiate National Team back in 2019, so evaluators are very comfortable with his offensive profile. He's also an above average runner who can swipe a base and be a net-positive in the outfield, where he projects as a fringy centerfielder or an above average corner guy. Cowser profiles as a potential leadoff guy who can hit 15-20 home runs per season for the Nationals down the line.
9. RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt 2021 stats: 14-4, 2.73 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 179/39 K/BB in 122 IP. I think it's highly unlikely Kumar Rocker makes it all the way to the Nationals. There has been some talk of him going as high as fifth overall to the Orioles, while the Diamondbacks at #6 and the Royals at #7 have shown interest as well. But if the chips fall that way and Rocker gets out of the top ten, I absolutely do not see Mike Rizzo letting him go any further. At this point, we all know the book on Kumar. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's deep into games, with his extension making the pitch play up. Rocker's slider is one of the best pitches in college baseball when he's commanding it, making even advanced hitters look like absolute fools. He throws a cutter that has a chance to be an above average pitch and while he has shown a changeup in the past, he didn't use it much in 2021 and it wasn't particularly effective when he broke it out late in the season. Rocker has also been noted as a control-over-command pitcher throughout his career, one who has no trouble filling up the strike zone or eliciting chases but who struggles to hit spots within the zone. Regardless, his exceptional track record in the SEC and strong makeup that enables him to step up when the lights shine the brightest will not be lost on scouting directors come draft day, and the stuff is so good that he can afford merely average command in pro ball and still succeed. If the command steps up from 50 to 55, he'll be an ace.
10. RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS, FL Eleventh overall feels a touch too early to grab Andrew Painter, but Mike Rizzo loves himself a high school pitcher and if Jackson Jobe is off the board, he could come into consideration. Painter entered the spring as the top pitching prospect in the high school class, but a combination of a loud spring from Jobe and a slow start for Painter changed that. He turned it around as the season went on, helping most traditional evaluators feel comfortable that he is still the second best. Painter is a huge, 6'6" righthander that combines physical projection with present stuff and pitchability. His fastball gets up to 95-96 without much effort, and he holds the low 90's deep into games. The South Florida product adds a pair of distinct, above average breaking balls, while his changeup is more advanced than that of most high school pitchers. He commands everything well, giving him an extremely well-rounded profile at a young age that reminds some of Mick Abel a year ago, albeit with less glowing numbers on the analytic side. The reason Painter might belong closer to the back of the first round is just that, the analytics, as some see a more traditional arsenal that doesn't stand out in today's game of high spin rates. Personally, I see Gage Jump and Chase Petty as the second and third best high school pitchers in the class, but my guess is the Nationals have Painter as #2 behind Jobe. He'll likely be an expensive sign with a Florida commitment, but at #11, I don't see him going above slot value.
Potential Second Round Targets
I mentioned a few times that the Nationals might elect to save some money early on with a pick like Gunnar Hoglund or Gavin Williams, or perhaps even on any number of other players on this list not named Jobe or Rocker (albeit less), and that would enable them to go after an expensive high schooler in the second round at pick #47. Knowing the Nationals, that would likely be a high school pitcher. Some options there:
LHP Frank Mozzicato, East Catholic HS, CT Mozzicato has been flying up boards late in the spring once the Connecticut high school season finally got started, absolutely dominating his Hartford-area competition with a low 90's fastball and one of the best curveballs in the high school class. He's young for the class and has projection remaining in his 6'3" frame, but that projection is important considering he only tops out at 93 as of now. He's a UConn recruit.
RHP Ben Kudrna, Blue Valley Southwest HS, KS Kudrna hasn't burst onto the scene quite like Mozzicato, but he's been quietly sliding up boards for a long time now. His fastball has ticked up into the mid 90's and he fills up the strike zone with an above average slider and changeup, all from a clean, repeatable delivery. The Kansas City-area product doesn't quite have the bat-missing stuff to project as an ace, but he has a higher floor than most high school pitchers. He's committed to LSU.
LHP Maddux Bruns, UMS-Wright Prep HS, AL Named after Greg Maddux, this 6'2" lefty has a bit of a different profile. The Mobile native has huge raw stuff, led by a fastball that has reportedly touches the upper 90's, as well as a plus curveball and an above average slider. It's power, power, power, but at this point he has extremely inconsistent command that can be anywhere from average to non-playable. Bruns is one day shy of a full year older than Mozzicato, so he's already 19 and will be draft-eligible after two years at Mississippi State if he gets there. I would prefer both Mozzicato and Kudrna heavily to Bruns.
This is an extremely deep class of high school bats, so there will undoubtedly be numerous available at #47 that really shouldn't be there. They'll be very expensive at this point and will require an above-slot bonus, but if the Nationals save money at pick #11, they should be able to get one. I think it's much more likely they go for a pitcher, but I would really like one of the bats.
SS Max Muncy, Thousand Oaks HS, CA No, not that Max Muncy. This Muncy (no relation) really stands out for his feel for the game, and even if he's not the most athletic player in the class, he understands his body and maximizes the production he gets out of his 6'1" frame. He has a chance to be a very well-rounded player who could improve quickly with pro coaching and conditioning. He's committed to Arkansas.
3B Wes Kath, Desert Mountain HS, AZ Kath has been trending up this spring as one of the most well-rounded bats in the West. He combines a strong feel to hit with impressive raw power in his sturdy, 6'3" frame, giving him the chance for both high on-base percentages and high slugging percentages. He has the arm for third base and may be able to stick there. Kath is an Arizona State commit.
SS James Triantos, James Madison HS, VA Okay, pick #47 might be just a little bit rich for James Triantos, but we have to include the local kid. Oh yeah, and he plays at my alma mater and I used to take batting practice in his backyard, so while I haven't seen him hit since he was in middle school, I'm following this one pretty closely. Triantos has absolutely ripped the cover off the ball this spring, helping lead Madison High School in Vienna to its first state championship since 2015, a team which I was on. He produces great leverage through the zone that gives him power to all fields, and he simply hasn't swung and missed this spring, either. He's probably a third baseman long term and while he's a UNC commit, signability likely won't be an issue this early.
Back in February, before the season started, I highlighted ten players I could see the Nationals taking with the eleventh overall pick. Now in April, a lot has changed, so I'll spare the introduction that can be found in the original article and hop right into it. With nearly three months to go, a lot can and will still change, but here is where things stand now. Ranking on my most recent top 75 in parentheses.
RHP Ty Madden, Texas (#11) 2019-2020: 7-1, 2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 63/28 K/BB in 67.1 IP. 2021: 4-1, 1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 57/18 K/BB in 53.1 IP. As I mentioned last time, this one really fits with the Nationals' drafting style. Ty Madden is your traditional, tall, consistent right hander with no glaring flaws to his game. His low to mid 90's fastball has topped out at 99 this spring, and he commands it well to both sides of the plate. He adds a slider that is usually at least average and flashes plus, as well as a consistently above average changeup. Combine three at least above average pitches with consistent command and a durable frame, and you have a prototypical starting pitcher. As he's continued to stay healthy and pound the strike zone, worries have faded over his slightly funky arm action that features some stab in the back, and instead focus on the "old school" steep plane on his pitches. Coming from straight over the top, his VAA (vertical approach angle) is difficult to lift with a traditional hitting approach, but won't miss as many bats as a flatter, Jack Leiter-esque fastball. Still, with an excellent spring that has featured seven consecutive starts of at least six innings and no more than two runs or three walks, he's as safe a bet as anybody in this draft to become a mid-rotation starter, something the Nationals would love.
RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi (#8) 2019-2020: 6-3, 4.24 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 90/18 K/BB in 91.1 IP. 2021: 3-1, 2.57 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 78/16 K/BB in 49 IP. Gunnar Hoglund was in the "other possibilities" section of this list last time, but a bump in velocity puts him squarely in the conversation for Washington at pick #11, if he even makes it out of the top ten. Despite touching 96 in high school, Hoglund was generally around 90 throughout his first two years at Ole Miss, instead focusing deploying his plus command. He threw an average slider that flashed above average, as well as a seldom-used changeup, but mostly pitched off that fastball by dotting it right where he wanted it. Even though we knew he had more velocity in the tank, it was still a back-of-the-first-round profile until he proved it. Well, in 2021, he proved it. I was at Globe Life Field in Arlington to catch his start against Texas Tech, where he came out throwing 94-95 in the first inning and now two months later, he hasn't looked back. Holding that same plus command, Hoglund is regularly in the low to mid 90's nowadays with an effortless delivery that screams durability. His slider has taken a big step forward and is regularly above average, flashing plus, and it's topping out around 87-88, which was the lower end of his fastball velocity a year ago. He's also broken out that changeup more often and it's looking like a solidly above average pitch as well. At this point, I would prefer the Nationals draft Hoglund to Madden, but he might not even make it this far if he keeps pitching like this.
RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt (#3) 2019-2020: 14-6, 3.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 142/29 K/BB in 114.2 IP. 2021: 7-1, 1.88 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 73/14 K/BB in 48 IP. Wait, what? Isn't Kumar Rocker supposed to be a candidate at 1-1? Well, his stock his slipping just a little bit right now. If the draft were today, he wouldn't make it to the Nationals at pick #11, but the draft is not today and he might be trending in that direction. For most of his time at Vanderbilt, the big righty has sat in the mid 90's with his fastball and touched 97-98 at the high end, but over his past few starts, that velocity has dipped pretty significantly into the low 90's. When you're talking about the very top of the draft, where teams are making potentially franchise-altering decisions, that's a big deal. There are teams wondering whether it's health related, fatigue related, or what, but he's going to want to answer that question definitively before July. Still, we're talking about a kid with great extension and a flat VAA (remember Madden had a steep VAA) that makes his fastball play above its velocity, and while his command is not pinpoint, he's been very consistent about landing the pitch for strikes (though the quality of those strikes has been nitpicked). He also adds arguably the best breaking ball in the class, an elite slider that crushes souls and could get big league hitters out right now. Rocker hasn't used his changeup as much, but it does flash above average. If his velocity comes back before the draft, it's highly unlikely he's available to the Nationals at pick #11, but continued fluctuations coupled with fastball command questions (i.e., hitting spots) could push him outside the top ten. So long as he stays healthy and nothing drastic happens, I see the Nationals as a potential floor for him.
SS Matt McLain, UCLA (#23) 2019-2020: 7 HR, .244/.306/.411, 7 SB, 77/21 K/BB in 74 games. 2021: 6 HR, .314/.411/.542, 4 SB, 20/19 K/BB in 29 games. I mentioned Matt McLain as an option for the Nationals back in February, and after a relatively slow start to the season, he was trending away from this list. However, he's now picked up a hit in sixteen of his last seventeen games and at one point hit four home runs in four games against Washington and Stanford, pushing his name back into consideration here just outside the top ten. McLain has no one flashy tool, but is instead what you call a "gamer" – the kid can just play. Despite standing a skinny 5'11", his athleticism and strong feel for the barrel have enabled him to tap more and more power throughout his amateur career, and that power showed up with wood bats as well in an exceptional turn through the California Collegiate League over the summer. He has reduced the swing and miss in his game as well, dropping his strikeout rate from 25.7% as a freshman to 20.3% as a sophomore and 14.2% this year as a junior. Meanwhile, his walk rate climbed from 6.8% and 6.3% over his first two years to 13.5% this year. A strong athlete, he is also a plus runner and has an outside chance at sticking at shortstop, though his feel to play the position at a major league level is questionable and he might fit better at second or third base. Overall, we're talking about a kid who can impact a baseball game in a lot of ways, and for a traditional team like the Nationals, a 15-20 home run bat with relatively high batting averages and an infield glove sounds like a fit. An August birthday makes him relatively old for the class, and that turns off some teams, but the Nationals did pop fellow August baby Cade Cavalli in the first round last year.
OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State (#28) 2019-2020: 8 HR, .339/.436/.554, 14 SB, 38/34 K/BB in 70 games. 2021: 12 HR, .351/.486/.730, 9 SB, 23/24 K/BB in 31 games. Colton Cowser, like his alliterative counterpart Matt McLain, was featured on this list back in February, and he's on a similar, if more extreme, trajectory. Cowser was excellent as a freshman (.361/.450/.602) but never really got going in his shortened sophomore season (.255/.379/.364), then got off to a slow start in 2021 that caused many in the industry (myself included) to sour on him a bit. I actually dropped him as low as #41 at one point. However, he clubbed four home runs in two games against Northwestern State and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi to bust out of that slump in a big way, then later homered in five consecutive games against Central Arkansas, Texas A&M, and New Orleans. Now that he's hot again, there is a lot to like in this profile. Ty Madden's high school teammate has a very strong feel for hitting, something he showed on a national stage with the US Collegiate National Team back in 2019. He has a flat left handed swing that is more geared for line drives than fly balls, but he finds that barrel extremely frequently against the so-so Southland Conference pitching he faces at Sam Houston State. With a wiry 6'3" frame, it's easy to see him tacking on a bit more power, though he will need to tinker with his swing to get there consistently against pro pitching. Cowser, like McLain, is a plus runner, though as an outfielder he's working to prove he can stick in center field. In a year without many viable college bats, a guy like Cowser who can impact the game in a lot of ways sticks out.
OF Sal Frelick, Boston College (#12) 2019-2020: 6 HR, .332/.428/.486, 25 SB, 22/33 K/BB in 54 games. 2021: 5 HR, .360/.438/.576, 8 SB, 15/16 K/BB in 30 games. Here's a new name. Coming into the season, Sal Frelick was an interesting back-of-the-first-round type who could impact the game in a lot of ways (that's three straight players I've used that verbiage for) but didn't necessarily stick out. Halfway through the season, boy does he stick out as arguably the second best college position player out there (at this point, there's probably no catching Henry Davis). The Massachusetts native has been blasting the ball around the field with ferocity this season, finding the barrel extremely consistently with elite bat to ball skills and wiry strength. In the past, he's often sold out for contact by putting bad (but successful) swings on bad pitches, and this year he's doing more damage and getting his "A" swing off more often. Described as a "ridiculous athlete," he plays a great center field with plus speed and could even fit at second base if needed. Some teams might be scared off by the size in this part of the draft, but that would be foolish and Frelick has every chance to become an impact, every day center fielder with 15-20 home run power (perhaps more), high on-base percentages, and plenty of stolen bases. Between McLain and Cowser, Frelick is probably the least likely to still be on the board when the Nationals pick.
RHP Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS [OK] (#16) This might be a bit of a reach unless they under slot him, but I do want to include a couple of high school pitchers for a team that has a history with them (see Mason Denaburg, Lucas Giolito). Jackson Jobe is an extremely interesting pitcher out of the Oklahoma City high school ranks, and could give the Nationals a second straight first round Okie pitcher after Tulsa-native and Sooner star Cade Cavalli last year. Relatively new to pitching, the 6'2" righty was better prospect as a hitter until a huge summer on the showcase circuit as a pitcher last year. He has a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90's in short stints and gets up to 95-96, but the real story is his slider. While Kumar Rocker has the best breaking ball in the college class, Jobe's slider is the best in the high school class with ridiculous spin rates well north of 3000 RPM's. Its bite is late, it's tight, and it's just a wicked pitch overall. He also adds a curveball and a changeup that flash above average, and by staying healthy and filling up the strike zone this spring, he has added confidence that he'll stick in the rotation. Jobe is old for the class and will turn 19 slightly after the draft, but even if that did bother the Nationals, the fact that he's relatively new to pitching should offset it. He is committed to Ole Miss but in the top half of the first round, I don't expect him to be too expensive.
RHP Bubba Chandler, North Oconee HS [GA] (#29) Same deal as Jackson Jobe here – this would probably be a reach unless he signed well below slot, but the Nationals aren't afraid of high school pitchers and Bubba Chandler seems like a guy they would like. Pitching at Kumar Rocker's alma mater near Athens, Georgia, Chandler is a ridiculous athlete who is actually committed to Clemson to play quarterback as well. If you follow college football at all, you know the enormity of that distinction – kid's a stud. Heading into the spring, it seemed unlikely that his projected second to fourth round draft range would deter him away from Dabo Swinney's program, but he's had some of the most helium of any high schooler in the country this spring. Does that push him all the way up to the Nationals at pick #11? Probably not, but we can still discuss it. Chandler is a 6'3" righty with a fastball that has leapt into the mid 90's, touching 97, and his command has held solid as well. He adds a sharp curveball that looks like one of the best breakers in the class at its best, a new slider that brings a more horizontal look, and a changeup that is quickly becoming a weapon in its own right. Combine that with obviously immense athleticism and you have a very, very interesting arm to buy early in the draft. That Clemson commitment will make him very expensive if he were picked closer to the back of the first round, but here at the eleventh pick you could probably under slot him.
SS Kahlil Watson, Wake Forest HS [NC] (#7) We'll finish up with a couple of bats. While Bubba Chandler might be a reach here, Kahlil Watson might not even make it to pick #11 with the way he's trending. If he is available, the Nationals would be smart to snatch him up. Though Raleigh-Durham is Braves country in reality, his hometown of Wake Forest, NC is technically closer to Washington than it is to Atlanta and I'll call that a hometown pick. Watson is a loud player in every sense of the word, but the first thing you notice is his swing. He generates tremendous torque from the left side with a vicious uppercut, giving him plus raw power despite a smaller 5'9" frame. Despite the ferocity of his swing, it's a controlled operation and he's made consistent contact both on the showcase circuit and this spring in North Carolina. Watson also showcases plus speed that makes him a threat on the bases, and combined with his strong arm makes him a good bet to stick at shortstop. A high-energy player that is fun to watch on the diamond, he has face-of-the-franchise upside if he reaches it. For now, he's probably just outside that top tier of high school hitters (Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, Brady House) just due to a hit tool that's more average than above average, but he could very well be gone anyways in the top ten. He's committed to NC State and will be expensive.
OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL] (#9) This one would really be a hometown pick, as James Wood grew up in Olney, Maryland, about twenty miles due north of Nationals Park. He attends the famed IMG Academy down in Florida along with numerous other 2021 and 2022 draft prospects, where he's actually their second best draft prospect behind 2022's Elijah Green. Wood is a towering 6'6" slugger who can absolutely punish a baseball when he connects, but the separating factor is actually his hit tool. He makes surprisingly easy contact for a hitter so big and so strong, identifying balls and strikes well against elite competition. That makes him all the more dangerous and has earned him comparisons to Zac Veen, who went ninth overall to the Rockies last year, though Wood has more present power. He's an easygoing kid who plays the game with an ultra-low heartbeat, somewhat the opposite of Kahlil Watson above him on this list, letting his play do the talking. For now, he's a good athlete as well who can actually handle center field, but he'll likely slow down as he ages and right field is probably the best fit with his cannon arm. Wood has true middle-of-the-order upside as a kid who could hit 30+ home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Committed to Mississippi State, he will likely be an expensive sign.
A few other possibilities RHP McCade Brown, Indiana OF Christian Franklin, Arkansas C Luca Tresh, North Carolina State RHP Chase Petty, Mainland Regional HS [NJ] C Harry Ford, North Cobb HS [GA]
Updates on those mentioned last time
RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn (#43): 0-3, 7.71 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 16/6 K/BB in 18.2 IP. Fitts had a chance to pitch himself into top ten consideration with a strong spring, but instead he lost his rotation spot at Auburn as he's proven more hittable than expected despite filling up the strike zone relatively well. Analytics-driven teams will still like his high spin fastball and pair of nice secondaries, but because he hasn't proven he can start, he figures to go closer to the back of the first round at best.
LHP Steven Hajjar, Michigan (#56): 1-0, 2.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 42/10 K/BB in 35.1 IP. It's been a much stronger season for Hajjar than for Fitts, but Hajjar was a long shot two months ago and hasn't taken the step forward he needed. His velocity is still relatively fringy around 90, peaking into the low 90's, which isn't enough this early in the draft. He has promising secondaries and has thrown more consistent strikes in 2021, so he'll still be a strong option in the second round, perhaps even for the Nationals at pick #47.
RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State (#37): 2-3, 6.67 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 25/12 K/BB in 29.2 IP. It's been an unfortunate season for Jaden Hill at every step of the way. A potential top five pick coming into the season, concerns started to crop up when his slider proved more inconsistent than expected and he failed to miss as many bats with his fastball as some scouts had hoped. Then on April 2nd in a highly touted matchup against potential first overall pick Jack Leiter, he walked off the field holding his elbow and ended up needing Tommy John surgery. It is truly remarkable how Jaden Hill has transformed himself as a pitcher over three years in Baton Rouge, but now with two season-ending injuries in three years and no consistent track record of starting, it's really hard to project him as a long term starter in the big leagues. I don't think the Nationals would bite at #11, but if he slipped to #47 in the second round, I could see them paying him well above slot to sign.
3B Alex Binelas, Louisville (#40): 7 HR, .231/.319/.496, 2 SB, 30/12 K/BB in 30 games. It hasn't exactly been smooth sailing for Alex Binelas. After taking the ACC by storm as a freshman (.291/.383/.612), he played just two games a sophomore due to a broken hand. Healthy in 2021, he struggled mightily out of the gate with just one hit in his first six games against relatively weak competition. He's since shown glimpses of the star he was as a freshman, including a four game stretch against NC State, Western Kentucky, and Notre Dame in which he went 9-15 with three home runs, but overall he just hasn't been able to recover the stock he lost with those early season struggles. Combine that with a move to first base for Louisville, and he fits closer to the back of the first round at best right now.
RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS [FL] (#26) I considered including Andrew Painter on this list again this time around, but ultimately I opted for the two prep arms trending up (Jackson Jobe and Bubba Chandler) rather than one trending down. Painter's stock isn't crashing, per se, but he's no longer the consensus top pitcher in the class after a spring where his command has been a bit shakier than before and he's been hit a little harder. There's still a lot to like in a 6'6" right hander who can hit the mid 90's, adds a full arsenal, and shows well above average command at times, but not at pick #11. He could be an option for the Nationals at pick #47 if they want to sign him way above slot. He's committed to Florida and will want first round money no matter what.
SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA] (#5) Unlike the other names that I included last time but didn't this time, Brady House isn't slipping. Instead, he's continued to wow evaluators with his huge tool set and I think it's highly unlikely he gets to the Nationals at pick #11 unless his signing bonus demands are outrageous. If House goes out and lights up the pre-draft showcases like I expect him to, we'll see him go well within the top ten picks.
It was a gorgeous, 73 degree day at Globe Life Field on Sunday, something that wouldn’t seem out of the ordinary in Arlington, Texas, even in February. However, it stood in stark contrast to the previous week, when temperatures plummeted near zero in the very same parking lot and millions of Texans were left in the dark. I spent the week huddled in my dark apartment with ice creeping through the window frames, alternating between eating canned tuna and braving the snowy, hour-long drive through line at the Whataburger, which served as a metaphorical soup kitchen for a desperate Metroplex. By Friday, when the State Farm College Baseball Showdown was set to start, temperatures had finally peaked just above freezing, but the tournament was delayed by a day as the Lone Star State continued to grapple with busted pipes, unsafe drinking water, and continued power outages.
On the way into the ballpark on Sunday, there was an extra light-heartedness in the air, as thawed-out fans made their way past the last melting piles of snow and laughed. “I thought it was supposed to be colder today, but it’s beautiful out,” a man decked out in Red Raider red exclaimed. We were on our way to see Texas Tech match up with Ole Miss in a top ten matchup – well, technically every game that weekend was a top ten matchup. Once the TCU Horned Frogs downed the Mississippi State Bulldogs in the morning tilt, the Rebels and Red Raiders took the field.
Gunnar Hoglund
The Rebel ace could have easily started Friday, but I was lucky enough to catch him on a Sunday. Gunnar Hoglund has long been a household name for scouts, ever since he was the 36th overall pick by the Pirates out of Fivay High School in the Tampa suburbs in 2018. At the time, he showed good command of a low to mid 90’s fastball that had touched 96, but his secondary pitches needed refinement and the Pirates couldn’t meet his asking price. The big righty headed north to Oxford, Mississippi, where he held his own as a freshman in the SEC: 5.29 ERA, 53/14 K/BB in 68 IP. He came out much stronger in 2020, posting a 1.16 ERA and a 37/4 K/BB over 23.1 innings.
Coming into the season, scouts had a lot of questions for Hoglund to answer. After flashing a fastball up to 96 in high school, he regularly pitched in the upper 80’s and scraped 91-92 at his fastest for the Rebels. That 90-ish fastball came with impeccable command, arguably the best in the class, a product of a simple, clean, very easy delivery. It was clear Hoglund could throw harder if he wanted to. He had set a loopy curveball from his high school days off to the side in favor of a tighter slider, while his changeup remained his third pitch. So, we all knew he had both the arm strength and command, but would we ever see it at the same time?
Gunnar answered that in the first inning on Sunday. Right out of the gate, he sat 94-95 in the first inning and touched 96 multiple times. The slider looked sharper, too, coming in at 85-87, a few ticks higher than it had been in the past. Dru Baker, Cal Conley, and Dylan Neuse went down in order in the first, and off we went. He didn’t hold that velocity all game, instead ticking down to the 92-94 range for the bulk of his start before coming out 90-92 in his sixth and final inning, but even at the end he was throwing as hard as he ever had in Rebel blue.
While his command wasn’t pinpoint, Hoglund used his riding fastball to induce plenty of whiffs up in the zone, while his tight slider missed a number of bats in its own right. There were blemishes, such as a two run home run from Nate Rombach and an opposite field bomb from Dylan Neuse, both off fastballs, and he did walk three. However, two of the three walks were full count battles that took hard battles (Neuse) and tough takes (Kurt Wilson) to get there. In all, I was not concerned with Hoglund’s strike throwing despite his own high standards.
The final stat line wasn’t the shiniest: 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 11 K.
But I choose to look at those eleven strikeouts (of twenty two batters faced), a factor of his newfound stuff. Outside of those few isolated incidents of hard contact from Rombach and Neuse, two extremely talented hitters in their own right, the majority of the Texas Tech lineup was overwhelmed by the stuff and struggled to touch him. Hoglund showed the same effortless delivery he’s always had, and as he gets more comfortable throwing in this higher velocity band, I think his command will remain plus. He was also flipping in that slider much more often than he has in the past, something else he’ll need to get comfortable with as opposed to pitching mostly off the fastball. Going forward, he’ll need to show that command, and he’ll also need to work in a changeup more often if he wants to go in the first round. But Sunday was a big step towards that.
Micah Dallas
Toeing the rubber against Hoglund was Texas Tech’s Micah Dallas, himself one of the top prospects in the Big 12. However, the North Texas native was not as sharp pitching forty miles from his hometown of Aubrey. Homeschooled in high school, he was unfazed by the Lonely Lubbock Lights (big props if you can tell me which West Texan sings that song) and was strong as a freshman (4.03 ERA, 84/28 K/BB). Then, like Hoglund, he was lights out as a sophomore in 2020 (0.57 ERA, 23/1 K/BB in 15.2 IP).
Dallas sat 90-91 for most of his outing, throwing up a few more 89’s later in the start. He leaned heavily on his low 80’s curveball, a pitch which flashes plus at its best. His delivery is not nearly as smooth as Hoglund’s, but he throws with conviction and pounds the zone nonetheless. From the start, it was clear that he did not have his best stuff, which is extremely dangerous against a lineup like Ole Miss, but he worked through it and held the Rebels off the board for the first two innings. However, they gradually began to figure him out, putting together more and more hard contact and broke through in the third. He never made it out of that inning, finishing with five runs (two earned) on three hits, two walks, and two strikeouts in 2.2 innings.
The Rebels’ five run third didn’t come out of nowhere. Jacob Gonzalez blasted a ball into the right field seats in the first inning, but it landed just to the right of the foul pole and he struck out later in the at bat. Ben Van Cleve roped a hot shot to third in the second inning, only to see it snared by Cal Conley. Trey LaFleur scorched one right at left fielder Max Marusak in the third. A few batters later, Gonzalez finally got him with a home run to the left of the foul pole, while Hayden Dunhurst and Hayden Leatherwood joined the party with singles of their own.
Micah Dallas has some work to do to prove he can start. The 89-91 velocity won’t quite be enough, and he already throws with some effort and lacks projection in his 6’2″ frame. But the building blocks are there. The curveball is an above average pitch that looks plus at its best, and it just flattened out as he leaned on it more and more heavily on Sunday. The Rebel hitters were able to sit back and wait for it. It also didn’t help that he fell behind in the count at times. The stuff played great out of the bullpen last year, and if he is forced into that role in pro ball, he could thrive with his competitiveness and ability to throw his stuff with convicion.
Brendan Girton
Once Leatherwood’s single knocked Dallas from the game, Texas Tech brought in true freshman Brendan Girton for his collegiate debut. Hailing from the tiny town of Gage in northwestern Oklahoma, Girton was a notable draft prospect at nearby Shattuck High School but headed across the South Plains to campus in Lubbock. Immediately, the 6’1″, 230 pound righty put his power arm on display. In 3.1 innings, he would strike out four batters while allowing two hits and one walk, and none crossed the plate.
Girton ended the third inning on a pair of fastballs at 94, then touched 96 a few times in the fourth before dipping to more 92-93 in the fifth. He must have known the sixth would be his final inning, because he ratcheted it back up to 96 a few times to close it out. He also flashed a low 80’s slider, but really struggled to get it down. Out of the dozen or so that he threw, no more than a couple were located below the belt. Still, the fastball was effective enough to keep Rebel hitters off the slider, and overall he was the most effective Red Raider pitcher of the day. Going forward, Girton will have to work on locating that slider better, and he has a reliever outlook for now.
Hayden Dunhurst, Jacob Gonzalez
Hayden Dunhurst and Jacob Gonzalez may have grown up in very different places, but they’re two of the most talented recruits to make it to campus in Oxford over the last couple of seasons and they both had loud days at the dish. Dunhurst was a nationally-known name at Pearl River Central High School in the small southern Mississippi town of Carriere, then stayed in state for school. Gonzalez, meanwhile, was a talented draft prospect in his own right, coming all the way across the country from the Los Angeles suburb of Glendora. They were both in Arlington this weekend, and both showed why they are the future of Ole Miss baseball.
Dunhurst had already elevated his stock with five home runs in seventeen games as a freshman last year, placing himself near the top of the 2022 draft. He had himself a nice game, starting off by working a four pitch walk off Micah Dallas. In his next at bat, he lined a single into right field to give the Rebels a lead they wouldn’t give back, and he showed off his all-fields approach by lining a 93 MPH Brendan Girton fastball the other way in the sixth inning, though it was right at left fielder Max Marusak. He finished his night by knocking a ball straight into the dirt in front of home plate, only to be tagged out by catcher Nate Rombach before he left the batters box.
Gonzalez, meanwhile, had the louder night with the bat. In his first at bat of his second career game, he nearly took Dallas deep but hooked it just to the right of the foul pole. The ball had enough distance to get out, but it will show up as a strikeout in the box score. He righted the ship in the next at bat, blasting a hanging Dallas curveball to the correct side of the foul pole to tie the game at two apiece. And the next time up, he turned around 94 from Girton for a single to right. He finished his night with a strikeout at the hands of veteran lefty Eli Riechmann, but I came away extremely impressed with his bat. Gonzalez is just 18 years old, so keep an eye on him for the 2023 draft.
Nate Rombach, Dylan Neuse
Texas Tech had some interesting bats as well. Nate Rombach and Dylan Neuse both showed off for their hometown fans as sons of the Metroplex. Rombach attended the same Mansfield Legacy High School as Noah Syndergaard, then took Lubbock by storm by blasting six home runs in nineteen games as a freshman. In his first start of 2021, Rombach announced his presence loudly by blasting a 93 MPH Gunnar Hoglund fastball over the left center field fence, the first home run Hoglund had allowed in over 32 innings. In his next at bat, he got Hoglund again, this time squaring up an 87 MPH slider for a single to left field. Redshirt senior Austin Miller gave him a different look in his third at bat, and he ripped a mid 70’s curveball foul. Miller ended up catching him looking for the strikeout, so you won’t see it in the box score, but Rombach absolutely scorched three different pitches during the day – a fastball at 93, a hard slider, and a slow curveball. Max Cioffi got him swinging on a low 90’s fastball in the ninth, but Romach had already made his point for the day.
Dylan Neuse has been around a bit longer, as he has already been eligible for three different drafts before this one. The younger brother of Dodgers infielder and Oklahoma alum Sheldon Neuse, Dylan began his career at McLennan JC in Waco before transferring to Texas Tech. He hit .298/.408/.494 as a sophomore in 2019 then .355/.438/.487 as a junior in 2020, but went undrafted in the shortened event. Gunnar Hoglund struck out the Fort Worth native in that first-inning-heard-round-the-country mentioned earlier, but Neuse made adjustments and got his payback. He worked a really tough full count walk off the command master in the third inning, showing off his exceptional plate discipline. Then in the sixth inning, he really got Hoglund, taking 92 the other way for an opposite field home run. Anybody concerned about the power output from the 5’9″ right handed hitter likely came away less so after seeing that. Neuse did drop a fly ball near the warning track in center field, which wasn’t a great look but he might not have much experience playing in indoor stadiums. In all, he profiles as an all-around player who doesn’t stand out with any particular tool, but can beat you with strong feel for the barrel and the ability to make his tools play up.
Peyton Pallette
We’ll finish off with Peyton Pallette, who started on the mound for Arkansas against Texas. I needed to get home for something and couldn’t stay the whole time, but I caught the first two innings and I’m glad I did. Benton High School outside of Little Rock has been good to Arkansas before, sending them Cliff Lee, and they might have struck gold again. Pallette got into four games as a true freshman last year, allowing three runs (one earned) over 5.2 innings in relief. He wasn’t the most likely candidate to start a top ten matchup on a loaded pitching staff that includes Patrick Wicklander, Connor Noland, Zebulon Vermillion, and even freshman Nick Griffin, so I was slightly disappointed to I didn’t get to see a bigger name.
It took precisely one pitch, a 95 mile per hour fastball, to realize I was in for a treat. Before I could blink, Pallette had set down Austin Todd, Eric Kennedy, and Mike Antico in order, and this wasn’t just any trio; the three had 373 games and 342 hits combined under their belts, making for one of the most experienced, disciplined, and consistent top three’s of any lineup in the country. They didn’t look like it Sunday. Pallette never threw a fastball under 95 as he blew pitch after pitch by them, snapping off a sharp breaking ball as well that nobody could touch.
It only took Texas starter Tristan Stevens ten pitches to work through the bottom of the first inning, so I barely had a chance to even process what I just saw before he was back on the mound again. As brilliant as the first inning was, the second was better. Pallette set down Zach Zubia, Trey Faltine, and Ivan Melendez on strikes, the latter two on six straight fastballs at 95. Unreal. Unfortunately I had to leave after that sixth straight strike, but he went on to toss 4.1 shutout innings and strike out eight of the seventeen batters he faced. He wasn’t a priority follow coming into the season, but with just one start he’s rocketed himself into 2022 draft conversation with that wicked fastball/curveball combination.
Last time, we started off with theTop Draft Prospects in the Big 12, which is my home conference now that I’m based in Dallas-Fort Worth. Shifting eastward, we’ll take a look at the SEC Top MLB Draft Prospects, the best conference in college baseball year in and year out, and 2021 is no exception. Like the Big 12, we’re definitely pitcher-heavy here due to the simple fact that it’s easier to show a velocity bump or uptick in stuff over a small sample than it is to show improvement in plate discipline or power, but there are definitely more bats here than in the Big 12.
The SEC boasts arguably the top two prospects in the draft in Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, and for some, Jud Fabian makes it the top three. The usual suspects in Vanderbilt and Florida are absolutely overflowing with talent, but the SEC is a strong conference from top to bottom and every team has players to watch. Mississippi State in particular has a really interesting group of arms that all offer something a little different. Without further ado, here are the top 2021 draft prospects in the SEC.
1. RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’4″, 255 lbs. Born 11/22/1999. Hometown: Athens, GA 2019-2020: 14-6, 3.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 142/29 K/BB in 114.2 IP.
No surprises here, Kumar Rocker is the top prospect in the SEC. And in the entire draft, for that matter. We all know Rocker’s story; a clear first round talent coming out of the Georgia high school ranks in 2018, he knew he hadn’t yet hit his ceiling and headed north to Vanderbilt for school. His freshman year went about as well as humanly possible, of course highlighted by his 19 strikeout no-hitter of Duke in the super regionals, and that success continued into his sophomore season when he struck out 28 batters in 15 innings of work. No pitcher in the country can come close to matching his combination of stuff, upside, polish, and track record.
So what makes Kumar Rocker so great? We’ll start with the stuff. The big right hander is listed at 6’4″ and 255 pounds, and he looks it for sure. The fastball sits in the mid 90’s and can hit 97-98 pretty easily, and it’s tough to pick out out of his hand. His bread and butter is a wicked, easy plus slider that dives under bats late and has made many a seasoned college hitter look silly. When he winds up a regular on Pitching Ninja in the majors, that pitch will be the reason. Lastly, it’s easy to overlook his changeup behind that power fastball/slider combination, but even his third pitch is regularly above average with great sinking action down in the zone.
Usually, these big, hard throwing underclassmen with explosive stuff need a little refining, but Rocker is actually pretty polished. His delivery features a lot of movement, but it’s smooth, coordinated, and athletic and he repeats it very well. That enables him to be an above average strike thrower, and with an extremely competitive, bulldog mentality on the mound, he pounds the zone and goes right after hitters. Of course, when you’re talking about the potential first overall pick, you’re obligated to nitpick, and the nitpicks on Rocker are that his control is ahead of his command, the command can be a little inconsistent, and his delivery might need just a little smoothing out. Still, nothing is glaring, and just a little more consistency with his command could easily make him a true ace.
2. RHP Jack Leiter, Vanderbilt
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6′, 195 lbs. Born 4/21/2000. Hometown: Summit, NJ 2020: 2-0, 1.72 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 22/8 K/BB in 15.2 IP.
Like his rotation-mate, Jack Leiter was a highly touted high school prospect and could have gone in the first round in 2019 out of the New Jersey high school ranks. Because he was extremely old for a high schooler and older than many college freshmen at the time, he’s draft eligible already as a sophomore, and it took just one start to establish himself in the very top tier of the class. In his first collegiate start, he took the mound against South Alabama and struck out twelve over five no-hit innings, then he cruised to a strong start against Evansville before a so-so outing against TCU. With just 15.2 innings under his belt, he’s already one of the most polished pitchers in the class.
Leiter can’t quite match Rocker’s stuff, but there is still plenty to like. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and tops out around 95 early in games, but even though he’s on the smaller side at six feet tall, it plays well above its velocity due to elite extension for his size. Teams increasingly look for that long extension that puts flat plane on the ball, and Leiter gets it. His best secondary pitch is a potentially plus curveball with tremendous depth, albeit with low to mid 70’s velocity. He’s begun working in a slider more that’s an average pitch for now, but he can rattle off some good ones and given his feel for pitching, it’s easy to envision him getting consistently above average with that pitch. With low to mid 80’s velocity, it also gets nice velocity separation from his curveball. Lastly, he flashes above average with his changeup as well but doesn’t use it as much.
That’s quite the repertoire, but what makes it really play up is his advanced feel to change speeds and spot his pitches. As we did with Kumar Rocker, we have to nitpick a little bit just because we’re talking about the very top of the draft here, and that’s just how it goes. You have to love Leiter’s feel for his craft, and he certainly has all the intangibles to succeed at the major league level. But we are talking about a fastball that often dips into the 90-91 range and a curve that can get down to 71-72, which isn’t exactly power stuff from a six foot pitcher, and he might have a little less margin for error than guys like Rocker. Additionally, the “burden of proof” is higher for command pitchers than for guys with loud stuff, and Leiter has thrown just 15.2 innings so far (with eight walks) at the collegiate level – he’ll have to prove over a full season that his command is all that it’s cracked up to be. If he does, he has a great chance to challenge for that 1-1 spot.
3. OF Jud Fabian, Florida
Bat: R. Throw: L. 6’2″, 195 lbs. Born 9/27/2000. Hometown: Ocala, FL 2019-2020: 12 HR, .250/.368/.466, 9 SB, 63/41 K/BB in 73 games.
While Jack Leiter is extremely old for his class, Jud Fabian enrolled early at Florida in 2019 and finds himself as one of the youngest juniors in his class, more than five months younger than the sophomore Leiter. He won’t turn 21 until well after the draft, and he’ll have multiple years of SEC play under his belt by then. Despite his age, he held his own as an 18 year old freshman in 2019, slashing .232/.353/.411 with seven home runs over 56 games against a tough SEC schedule. Fabian was off to an even hotter start against Florida’s non-conference slate in 2020, slashing .294/.407/.603 with five home runs in 17 games, including one off of the Diamondbacks’ 32nd overall pick, Slade Cecconi. Combine that with a pair of strong summers on the Cape in 2019 and in the Florida League in 2020, and Fabian has more amateur track record than any teenager in the country.
With Fabian, we’re not talking about any one loud tool. As you would expect given all the hitting he’s done as a teenager, his natural feel for the game is what stands out the most and it helps his tools, which are all at least average across the board, play up. The Ocala native has a very disciplined approach at the plate, recognizing balls from strikes and improving in his ability to recognize offspeed pitches as well. However, he does need to improve his raw bat to ball skills, because even if his pitch selection is advanced, he tends to swing and miss within the strike zone a bit more than you’d expect. At a listed 6’2″ and 195 pounds, he has a nice balance of power and athleticism in his frame, and at this point he regularly flashes above average raw and game power from a loose, balanced swing. As he continues to refine his hit tool (which I am separating from his “eye tool”), there is a chance he ends up with plus power down the road if everything breaks right.
An above average runner, Fabian’s feel for the game translates to his defense as well and he profiles to stick in center field long term, which in turn makes his offensive profile look even better. Given his youth, it’s not hard to dream on him continuing to improve at the plate and tapping into his true five tool potential, in which case he could project for 20-30 home runs a year with high on-base percentages at his ceiling. Profiling easily within the top ten picks and getting plenty of looks within the top five picks at this point, teams will want to see big production against SEC pitching in 2021, which could solidify him as the top position player prospect in college baseball. Fabian’s current competitors in that regard are Miami’s Adrian Del Castillo, UCLA’s Matt McLain, and Louisville’s Alex Binelas.
4. RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’4″, 235 lbs. Born 12/12/1999. Hometown: Ashdown, AR 2019-2020: 1-0, 0.83 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 28/8 K/BB in 21.2 IP.
“Who cares about track record – I’m buying for the future. If the stuff is there, the stuff is there!” If you find yourself nodding in agreement with that statement, then Jaden Hill is the pitcher for you. Hill’s big fastball and projectable offspeed stuff made him a well-known draft prospect coming out of high school near Texarkana, but he opted to head down to LSU and prove himself instead of going pro. As a freshman, he missed time due to elbow soreness and later collarbone surgery, the latter stemming from his days as a high school quarterback, and was limited to just ten (albeit impressive) innings. Fully healthy as a sophomore, Hill was untouchable in 11.2 shutout innings in which he struck out 17 and allowed just one (1!) hit, and that included non-conference outings against Indiana and Texas.
Let’s talk about stuff. Jaden Hill has pitched mostly in relief to this point, where he can easily touch 98 with his fastball, but in longer outings he can still sit comfortably in the mid 90’s. His go-to pitch is a rapidly improving slider that has added a ton of power since high school, showing devastating late bite as it dives across the plate. His changeup was actually ahead of the slider when he arrived in Baton Rouge, and it’s an above average pitch as well. Lastly, as he has gotten more confident in his slider, he’s been tinkering with a cutter that could split the difference in his power fastball/slider combination.
Hill’s delivery is clean, his frame is big and durable, and his arm speed is certainly there. He has also shown solid-average command in his short stints on the mound, bringing together the full package. Of course, the big question is proving it all, because 21.2 dominant innings as an underclassman is not enough to inspire confidence that his game will hold together under the rigor of a 200 inning MLB season. There is nothing in his profile to suggest he can’t, but until he does, it has to be a question. Scouts will for sure be bearing down on his starts this spring, and if the stuff is as loud in June as it was in February and the command holds together, then we likely have a top ten pick and potentially the most exciting arm to come out of LSU since Aaron Nola.
5. RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6’4, 220 lbs. Born 12/17/1999. Hometown: Hudson, FL 2019-2020: 6-3, 4.24 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 90/18 K/BB in 91.1 IP.
Continuing the theme that has become apparent here, Gunnar Hoglund was yet another highly touted arm coming out of high school in the Tampa area, and the Pirates actually drafted him 36th overall. He didn’t sign, and now has the opportunity to beat that high selection in 2021. Hoglund was solid as a freshman in 2019, putting up a 5.29 ERA and an effective 53/14 strikeout to walk ratio against a tough schedule, then devoured his opponents in 2020 with a 1.16 ERA and a 37/4 strikeout to walk ratio across 23.1 innings. At this point, he’s safely behind the big four prospects listed ahead of him here, but his floor is as high as any.
Hoglund’s selling point is his command, which is perhaps the best in the SEC given that he’s had more time to prove it than Jack Leiter. The fastball only sits around 90, but not for a lack of arm strength. He can touch 92 with very minimal effort, looking like he’s just playing catch, but when he does let loose, he has been clocked as high as 96. That easy, natural delivery enables Hoglund to hit his spots very consistently, with well above average command dating back to his high school days in Florida. Additionally, the 6’4″ right hander ditched a loopy 12-6 curveball for a tighter slider that has shown above average potential, giving him a second weapon with continued refinement. Lastly, there is a solid changeup as well, but Hoglund mainly pitches off his fastball.
On the surface, Hoglund looks like a one trick pony with plus command and average stuff. But having that 95-96 in his back pocket inspires a lot of confidence that his average velocity will tick up, and even a small improvement into perhaps the 90-93 range in 2021 will really help his draft stock. If he can refine either his slider or changeup into a true 55 grade pitch, that would help significantly as well. But even with his present stuff, I think the 6’4′, 220 pound righty really appeals to teams looking for a safe bet they know can be a #4 starter at the big league level.
6. RHP Jonathan Cannon, Georgia
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’6″, 205 lbs. Born 7/19/2000. Hometown: Alpharetta, GA 2020: 3-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.53 WHIP, 12/2 K/BB in 11.1 IP.
Unlike many of the other names on this list, Jonathan Cannon wasn’t necessarily famous on the high school circuit, but it took just 11.1 innings as a freshman at Georgia to push himself into the first round conversation. The lanky, 6’6″ right hander allowed just six baserunners and did not allow a run, striking out twelve and capping it off with 4.2 strong innings against Georgia Tech. A year after sending Emerson Hancock (Mariners) and Cole Wilcox (Padres) off to multi-million dollar bonuses, Georgia will give the draft-eligible sophomore the chance to step into the rotation and earn his own hefty payday.
For now, Cannon is mostly about projection, but not completely. Long and lanky at 6’6″, he has plenty of room to further fill out his huge frame, but his velocity has already begun creeping up. After topping out around 91-92 in high school, he’s now comfortably sitting in the low to mid 90’s and topping out around 96, with his long arms and natural extension putting nice run on the ball as well. His slider has sharpened into an above average pitch with nice horizontal bite, and his changeup is very advanced for an underclassman and gives him a potential plus pitch. The Atlanta-area native is very coordinated despite his lanky stature and fills up the strike zone consistently with solid-average command, giving even more projectability.
Like Jaden Hill a few slots ahead of him, he now has to go out and prove he can hold his stuff over a full season in the rotation, but also like Hill, he hasn’t given us any reason to believe he can’t. If Cannon is still brushing 94-95 and throwing strikes in June after 70+ innings, we’ve got a first rounder on our hands.
7. OF Christian Franklin, Arkansas
Bat: R. Throw: R. 5’11”, 185 lbs. Born 11/30/1999. Hometown: Overland Park, KS 2019-2020: 9 HR, .301/.389/.470, 13 SB, 74/33 K/BB in 75 games.
Despite losing sluggers Heston Kjerstad (Orioles) and Casey Martin (Phillies) to the 2020 draft, Arkansas returns a ton of firepower to its lineup in 2021, and perhaps no player is more exciting than Christian Franklin. He hit the ground running with a .274/.362/.419 line and six home runs as a freshman in the SEC, then cranked it up to .381/.467/.619 with three home runs against a weaker non-conference slate in 2020. Heading into 2021, it’s hard to project exactly what Franklin will turn into, but there’s no questioning his talent and ability to perform and the Kansas City-area native could develop in any number of directions.
Listed at 5’11” and 185 pounds, Franklin is not the biggest guy in the world, but he packs a lot of punch into that frame. His quick, powerful right handed swing produces more power than you’d expect, and he has tapped that power consistently everywhere he has gone. It’s not necessarily the plus, light tower power of his former teammate Kjerstad, but evaluators really like the way the ball jumps off his bat. He’s an above average runner as well that has a chance to stick in center field with a little more refinement, giving him another avenue in which to impact the game and making his offensive profile look more impressive.
For now, the major question is plate discipline, as he has struck out at a 25.3% rate during his Razorbacks career. It’s not really fair to judge a player’s plate discipline on his freshman year in the SEC, but for now, that’s all we really have (he did strike out six times in three games in Arkansas’ only tough weekend series in 2020). If Franklin comes out in 2021 with a cleaner K/BB ratio and less swing and miss, he could rocket up boards as a potential 20-20 threat.
8. LHP Jonathan Childress, Texas A&M
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’4″, 205 lbs. Born 1/22/2000. Hometown: Forney, TX 2019-2020: 2-1, 1.98 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 25/5 K/BB in 27.1 IP.
Jonathan Childress is yet another player following the three major themes on this list: a pitcher (6/8 so far) who could have been drafted high out of high school (5/8) but who lacks much of a track record so far in college (4/8). Childress was off to a hot start as a freshman in 2019 but went down with Tommy John surgery pretty quickly, then looked great in his brief return in 2020. Together, it only amounts to 27.1 innings, but he’s struck out 25 to just five walks and allowed just 25 baserunners in total. In his seven career appearances, the toughest lineups he’s had to face were Houston (2019) and Rice (2020), but there is a lot to like regardless.
The big lefty who grew up on the eastern edge of Dallas-Fort Worth makes for a very uncomfortable at bat. Coming from a crossfire delivery, he hides the ball very well and puts nice angle on the ball. His fastball velocity has fluctuated over the years, climbing as high as 94 in high school, but he didn’t maintain that velocity as the 2018 draft neared and since returning from Tommy John, he’s sat around 90 for the most part. Childress’ two plane curveball is his best and most consistent pitch, a plus breaker that he can backdoor for strikes and change the shape of for a different look. He also tosses a solid changeup, and in his small sample in college, he has shown the ability to command all three pitches very well.
Fully healthy now, he has a chance to really elevate his stock this spring simply by pitching how he’s capable of, and any uptick in velocity should send him moving up boards in a hurry. Aside from a lack of track record, there is no reason to believe Childress can’t be a mid-rotation starter.
9. RHP Tommy Mace, Florida
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’6″, 225 lbs. Born 11/11/1998. Hometown: Tampa, FL 2018-2020: 16-5, 4.37 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 145/55 K/BB in 179.1 IP.
Man, have I written about Tommy Mace a lot lately. Like so many names before him on this list, he was a very well-known draft prospect coming out of high school in 2017, but he opted to bet on his extreme projectability and head to Florida instead. Mace’s time in Gainesville has been a mixed bag so far, as he’s proven his durability and command but has not yet taken the “leap forward” that scouts have been hoping for.
After putting up a 4.84 ERA and a decent 17.4% strikeout rate over his first two years, he jumped out to a 1.67 ERA and a 24.1% strikeout rate over four starts in 2020, so he priced himself out of a possible second round selection to bet on himself once more. The Top member of the 2020 College Class to return to school, he immediately becomes the top senior-aged member of the 2021 class.
Mace’s fastball sits in the low 90’s and can hit 96, though it can be very straight and easy to pick up at times despite its solid velocity, so scouts would still like to see it tick up a little farther and get into the 94-95 range more often. He never really developed a true breaking ball, instead relying on a cutterish short slider that can be above average and miss barrels effectively. Mace’s changeup is solid average, giving him three pitches to work with, and his solid average to at times above average command makes it play up. His track record of filling up the strike zone really helps his stock as scouts wait for his stuff to tick up, though he’s set to turn 22 in November and without that tick up in 2021, he will project more as a #4 starter than a higher ceiling mid-rotation guy.
10. LHP Christian MacLeod, Mississippi State
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’4″, 225 lbs. Born 4/12/2000. Hometown: Huntsville, AL 2020: 4-0, 0.86 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 35/6 K/BB in 21 IP.
Even after losing JT Ginn (Mets), Mississippi State has a whole slew of interesting arms to watch in 2021, none more advanced than lefty Christian MacLeod. He actually missed his entire true freshman season with pneumonia in 2019, but you wouldn’t know that by the way he came out of the gate in 2020. Over four starts that included some tough matchups including Oregon State, he was absolutely dominant with a 0.86 ERA, 35 strikeouts, and just 15 baserunners allowed in 21 innings. Heading into 2021, he’s looking to build off that and fully prove himself with a strong run through SEC competition.
Listed at 6’4″ and 225 pounds, MacLeod is a big guy that projects as a mid to back of the rotation starter. His fastball sits in the low 90’s but dipped into the upper 80’s later in his starts, which should be less of an issue as he gets further from pneumonia. The curveball projects as an above-average pitch, coming in with nice depth and very little hump out of his hand, making it hard to pick up. His changeup is a solid average pitch as well with some fade. Everything played up in the shortened 2020 season with his above-average command, and now he just has to go hold it over a full season and against SEC competition.
He also needs to answer the durability questions that stem from his inability to hold his fastball velocity, but that shouldn’t be an issue. At this point, Kansas State's Jordan Wicks is the consensus top lefty in the college class, but MacLeod has a very strong argument for #2 when put up against the likes of Steven Hajjar (Michigan), Jonathan Childress (Texas A&M, see #8), Pete Hansen (Texas), and Evan Shawver (Cincinnati).
Other Interesting Options
Alabama:
The Tide doesn’t quite dominate the SEC in baseball like it does in football, but there are a couple of interesting names to look out for from the program that brought us David Robertson, Alex Avila, and Jimmy Nelson. The biggest name here is New Jersey native Tyler Ras, who tossed 11.1 shutout innings in 2020 before the shutdown. The 6’4″ righty has plenty of arm strength, sitting in the low to mid 90’s and touching 97 in short stints at times, and he gets nice fade on his changeup as well. His slider can soften up and currently grades out around a 45, but when you add in his solid-average strike-throwing, that breaking ball is all his profile is really missing. Sharpening it into even an average pitch could pay big dividends for his stock this spring. Connor Shamblin is another arm with projection, though the 6’1″ righty isn’t as clean of a product yet. He sits in the low 90’s with his fastball and can touch the mid 90’s, adding a better slider than Ras as well as a decent changeup, but the Memphis native has a jerky deliver and very inconsistent control, which bottomed out with 26 walks in 29 innings on the Cape in 2019. It’s a relief profile for now, but he was filling up the strike zone better as a sophomore in 2020 and the stuff is there for an impact profile. Lastly, the Tide would really like to see T.J. Reeves break out, as the patient right-handed hitter possesses above-average raw power and impressive strength packed into a 5’10” frame. He had a standout summer in the Northwoods League in 2019 (.324/.412/.566, 10 HR) and is an above-average runner as well, and if he can just cut down on his swing and miss a little bit, he could be one of the better bats in this conference. The Birmingham native draws plenty of walks and could stick in center field.
Auburn:
They didn’t place any names in the top ten, but there are a few who could break in with strong seasons. Infielder Ryan Bliss is easily the top prospect here, coming off a hot 2020 in which he hit .377/.412/.597 with just five strikeouts in 18 games. Despite being listed at just 5’9″ and 165 pounds, Bliss has been able to make consistent hard contact around the field while showing some gap power from a loose swing. He’s an above-average runner who shows great feel for the game on both sides of the ball, likely fitting in as a long term second baseman/utility infielder. Steven Williams is Bliss’ opposite, returning after being draft-eligible in 2020. Williams has blasted 23 home runs while slashing .270/.384/.457 in his Auburn career, though he’s never quite put it together for long stretches at a time. His swing can get long at times and while he’s very patient, he also strikes out a lot as well. With a corner outfield profile, he’ll have to show he can hit consistently, probably profiling as a platoon bat. Richard Fitts is an interesting name for sure who could be a sleeper for 2021. The 6’3″ righty has projection on his average fastball and adds a good slider and changeup, showing some of the better command in the SEC. That command buys his stuff time to come along, and with a durable frame and delivery built for starting, he could break out this spring. Auburn would also like to see high-spin lefty Garrett Wade break out after coming in as a highly regarded recruit. I liked him a lot in high school due to his hard running fastball and pair of above-average breaking balls, but his command has been shaky at Auburn and we’re still waiting on that velocity bump. Learning to get a little more extension at release could help.
Arkansas:
As discussed in Christian Franklin’s writeup, the Razorbacks lost two big hitters to the draft in Heston Kjerstad and Casey Martin, but they got a nice surprise when catcher Casey Opitz went undrafted. He’s one of the best defensive backstops in college baseball that can absolutely shut down the running game, and his hot .302/.361/.509 start to the 2020 season really elevated his profile. However, aside from that 16 game stretch, he hasn’t done much hitting at any point, his good plate discipline being his only proven trait at the plate. Opitz will be nearly 23 when the draft rolls around, which is less than ideal, and how much he hits in 2021 will determine whether he’s a legitimate backup catcher or organizational depth. On the mound, Patrick Wicklander has a lot of interesting starter traits but is yet to completely put it together. His fastball has climbed as high as 95, but at times, it can also dip into the upper 80’s. The California native has a full array of secondary pitches, with a pair of breaking balls standing out for great depth. His stuff can lack power at times and with the fringe-average command, the 6’1″ lefty doesn’t quite have what it takes to make it as a starter just yet, but incremental steps forward in any part of his game could really boost his draft stock. Lastly, we’ve got a sleeper in Elijah Trest, a 6’3″ Texan with a fastball that reaches 95 and a curve that is really tough to square up. Trest really struggled with his command as a freshman in 2019 but was better in that regard in 2020, though he still gives off reliever vibes at this point.
Florida:
We’ll never make it through all the names on this incredibly talented Florida team, so let’s just talk about the ones who just missed the list. I’m personally fond of eligible sophomore Nathan Hickey, who like Jack Leiter is the age of a college junior. He put up an exceptional .311/.439/.622 line with four home runs and a 15/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games against Florida’s non-conference slate in 2020, showcasing big raw power from an explosive left-handed swing. He’s very patient and had no trouble making the transition from high school pitching, but his swing can get a little long and there is some swing and miss to be wary of. A fringy catcher defensively, he becomes a legitimate Day One prospect if he shows he can stick back there. On the mound, Ben Specht has a mid 90’s fastball, a downer slider, and a changeup that would play in just about any rotation in college baseball, but the returns of Tommy Mace and Jack Leftwich mean he’ll have to really earn that spot. The command is so-so, but the 6’1″ righty has arm strength that doesn’t come around every day and he attacks the strike zone with a 59/19 strikeout to walk ratio in his Gators career. Sharpening his offspeed pitches would help him miss barrels in pro ball even when he misses spots. Speaking of Jack Leftwich, the 6’4″ righty flashes mid-rotation stuff with a low 90’s fastball, an above-average slider, and a solid changeup from an athletic frame, but his secondary stuff and command have been inconsistent and it led to him just missing out on the 2020 draft. Returning for 2021, he’ll be nearly 23 by the time the draft rolls around. 6’5″ righty David Luethje is a deep sleeper here, reaching the low 90’s with his fastball from a very easy delivery, flashing above average with his slider as well. He’s a decent strike-thrower who could break out at any time, though on this immensely deep Gator pitching staff, he’s struggled just to find innings, let alone land a rotation spot. Other names to watch for the Gators include Kendrick Calilao and Christian Scott.
LSU:
If you find yourself at Alex Box Stadium but miss Jaden Hill’s start, don’t worry. Landon Marceaux is a very different pitcher than Hill, but he has a chance to be a big-league starter with a fantastic baseball name. His fastball sits in the low 90’s, while he adds a solid slider and changeup as well as a usable curveball. Nothing is plus or even firmly above average, but he fills up the strike zone and mixes his pitches effectively, which makes everything play up. A bit undersized as a skinny six-footer, he lacks much projection and he’ll have to prove himself at every level, but there’s no question Marceaux knows how to pitch. In the lineup, keep your eye on Cade Beloso, a slugging first baseman who homered ten times as a true freshman in 2019. He derives his power from the brute strength in his left-handed swing, with the ability to put up great exit velocities. In order to prove to scouts his power will play in pro ball, he’ll need to get a little more patient at the plate and also shake off a mediocre Cape summer from 2019 (.222/.327/.300). As a first baseman only, that’s very important.
Mississippi:
Just missing the top ten was lefty Doug Nikhazy, who holds a career 3.12 ERA despite an undersized 5’10” frame. The Orlando native confidently pounds the strike zone with advanced pitchability that makes his fringy fastball (around 90), deep two-plane curveball, and average slider and changeup play up. There are bound to be evaluators that really like Nikhazy’s track record and feel for pitching, and an uptick in velocity would be huge. We also have a pair of interesting bats in Kevin Graham and Jerrion Ealy. Graham has 13 home runs over 68 games for the Rebels, but he needs to tighten up his strike zone judgment given his lack of defensive projection. Ealy is a sophomore who may become eligible due to the later draft date, but he’s currently busy making big plays as the football team’s running back. Packing a ton of strength into his 5’9″ frame, his game is raw and he has a lot to prove if he wants to be drafted in 2021. At his ceiling, Ealy could show an exciting package of power and speed.
Mississippi State:
Christian MacLeod may lead the post-JT Ginn pitching staff, but there is a lot of talent here beyond him. Will Bednar is a personal favorite of mine, a draft-eligible sophomore coming off an exceptional start to his freshman season (1.76 ERA, 23/6 K/BB in 15.1 IP). His fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s but reaches 95-96 at his best, and he shows great feel for a slider, curve, and changeup, though none stand out as plus. With above-average command and a sturdy 6’2″ frame, any small uptick in secondary stuff could make Bednar a very coveted arm. A very different but very talented arm is Eric Cerantola, a 6’5″ Canadian righty who has struck out 43 but walked 22 over 31.2 innings so far. He has a low to mid 90’s fastball that has climbed as high as 98 in relief, adding a good curveball and a decent changeup. Cerantola utilizes a very easy, deliberate delivery to the plate, but he still struggles with command and repeating his arm slot. That leads to questions about his overall feel for pitching, which he can answer with a strong year in the rotation in 2021. We have sophomore-eligible two-way talent KC Hunt, though he didn’t bat in 2020 and only threw 1.2 innings. Another eligible sophomore is infielder Kamren James, who hit .308/.339/.423 in 2020 with a smooth swing that could add some power as he fills out his 6’2″ frame. He will want to get more direct with that swing but he’s a sleeper who could break out in 2021.
Tennessee:
The Vols didn’t place anybody in the top ten, but they have a ton of interesting players to watch. My favorite is shortstop Jake Rucker, who was off to a hot .339/.425/.581 start with three home runs in 2020. He’s growing into his 6’1″ frame and starting to tap some power with a very quick right-handed swing, helped by the fact that he possesses above-average bat to ball skills and doesn’t swing and miss much. If he can stick at shortstop, that’s full time starting a profile, though there is a chance he’s forced to third base. I like the direction his bat is trending. Opposite Rucker in the middle infield is Max Ferguson, who like Rucker was off to a hot start in 2020 with a .333/.462/.524 line with a pair of home runs and nine stolen bases. While Rucker is trending towards average power, Ferguson’s is more fringy and he gets his hits with a very disciplined approach and an above-average hit tool. He’s also a plus runner but figures to man second base long term. Moving to the mound, Jackson Leath was also off to a red hot start in 2020 with a 1.45 ERA and a 29/5 strikeout to walk ratio but went undrafted in the shortened event. He showcases a four-pitch mix headlined by a low to mid 90’s fastball that can touch 95-96. The 6’1″ righty’s slider and curveball flash above average and his changeup is an average pitch, though, with average command and some effort in his delivery, he might wind up in the bullpen unless he can get more consistent. We have Elijah Pleasants, a 6’5″ string bean who sits in the low 90’s with his fastball and adds a good changeup, but his slider lacks power and he hasn’t missed many bats at Tennessee. Camden Sewell is a projectable 6’4″ lefty with a strong track record in Knoxville (2.23 ERA, 48/23 K/BB), hovering around 90 with his fastball and adding a high spin curveball that misses plenty of bats. Any uptick in velocity for him would be huge.
Texas A&M:
After producing Asa Lacy in 2020 and putting Jonathan Childress onto the top ten here, the Aggies still have two more very interesting left-handed pitchers for the 2021 draft. Chris Weber is an aerospace engineering student who has a 3.02 ERA and a 98/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.1 innings in College Station, coming on the back of a fastball around 90, a big 12-6 curveball, and a solid changeup. He lacks a true strikeout pitch at this point and probably profiles as a back-end starter or long reliever, but the 6’4″ lefty has above-average command and pitchability that gives him a nice floor. Joseph Menefee has missed a lot of bats so far at Texas A&M, using a low 90’s fastball and an above-average slider to do the trick, but he’s been unable to break into that Aggie rotation so far and still needs to prove he can make his stuff play up in the rotation.
Vanderbilt:
As with Florida, there are too many names here to get through all of them, even after Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter ranked #1 and #2 on this list, respectively. Isaiah Thomas (not to be confused with the NBA all-star) just missed the list and would have probably ranked ~12th had I gone that far, holding a career .300/.349/.590 line with seven home runs so far in his Vanderbilt career. He has an explosive right-handed swing that makes the ball scream off his bat, a product of the wiry strength in his 6’2″ frame. The South Florida native is extremely aggressive at the plate and has walked just four times so far in 37 games, which will have to change if he wants to be drafted on Day One, but even with the hyper-aggressive approach, he makes contact at a decent clip. With above-average speed and the potential to stick in center field, that plate discipline is really all that’s standing in his way. Catcher CJ Rodriguez is a very different player, a draft-eligible sophomore from Southern California who hit .289/.370/.356 as a freshman but struck out just three times in twelve games. He has a very simple swing that can handle high-end pitching, though it lacks explosiveness and he doesn’t project to be more than a decent all-around hitter. Rodriguez’s value comes from his glove, showing not only the physical tools but the mental aptitude as well. His youth makes him a more attractive draft candidate than a guy like Arkansas’ Casey Opitz, and an uptick in offensive output will be big. Hugh Fisher was sixth to eighth round talent in 2020, but went undrafted after sitting out the season with Tommy John surgery. He struck out 46 batters in 34.2 innings in 2019 but also walked 21, showcasing big stuff but a questionable command. The 6’5″ lefty has hit 97-98 in relief with late-life and can drop in a plus slider, and once he comes back healthy in 2021, he could move quickly as a late-inning weapon. We also have talented bats like Tate Kolwyck, Dominic Keegan, and Matt Hogan who have struggled to find playing time in that deep, deep lineup.
