2019 Draft Review: Cleveland Indians

First five rounds: Daniel Espino (1-24), Yordys Valdes (2-63), Joe Naranjo (3-101), Christian Cairo (4-130), Hunter Gaddis (5-160)
Also notable: Will Brennan (8-250), Ike Freeman (14-430), Jonathan French (30-910)

The Indians had an on-brand draft here, focusing on adding high schoolers to a system led exclusively by high school and international signings. Their first four picks were high schoolers, as the Indians love upside as much as any team except perhaps the Texas Rangers. First rounder Daniel Espino has as much upside as any pitcher in the class, and even fifth rounder Hunter Gaddis and seventh rounder Xzavion Curry, the first two college players they took, are more about upside than safety. There is a lot of risk in this draft, but with a little patience, they could turn out some real impact pieces here.

1-24: RHP Daniel Espino (Georgia Premier Academy, my rank: 22)
Espino, a Panamanian right hander who pitched at the Georgia Premier Academy in Statesboro, has a very interesting profile. Despite standing just 6'1", he possesses the best raw stuff of any pitcher in the entire draft, high school or college. His 80 grade fastball sits comfortably in the mid to upper 90's, and its serious running action makes it almost impossible to square up even if you can catch up to it. You can't sit on the heater, either, because he adds both a curveball and a slider, both of which have sharp break and miss bats. His changeup is behind the other three but should come, and he commands everything fairly well. A few years ago, that might have put him in top five pick consideration, but the track record for high schoolers who throw this hard is not great. 2014 Marlins draftee Tyler Kolek is no longer really a prospect, 2016 Rockies draftee Riley Pint can't throw strikes at all, 2017 Reds draftee Hunter Greene just went down with Tommy John surgery, and 2018 Indians draftee Ethan Hancock battled injuries his senior year of high school and saw his stock fall considerably during the spring. The fact that Espino is 6'1" and has very long arm action in his delivery does not help his cause, but the Indians hope that the efficiency he has in transferring power from his legs will ease some of the stress on his arm and alleviate some injury risk. Espino's upside is tremendous; if he stays healthy, he has true ace potential and should be a safe bet to be at least a mid-rotation starter if he shows any semblance of command. However, the risk is just as big as his upside, and he has Kolek, Pint, Greene, and Hancock to thank for dropping him to the 24th pick in the draft. Despite a commitment to Louisiana State, he signed for $2.5 million, which is $330,000 below slot.

2-63: SS Yordys Valdes (McArthur HS [FL], my rank: 95)
Yordys Valdes rivals Bobby Witt Jr. and Nasim Nunez as one of the top defensive shortstops in the high school class, as the kid from South Florida is a lock to stay there with his cannon arm and plus range despite average speed. It's the bat, though, that will need patience. He's a switch hitter who is on a positive trajectory, generating some torque in his swing that could eventually lead to 5-10 home runs per season, though he's more of a slap/low line drive hitter than anything else at this point. The Indians are buying the glove here with hopes that he'll grow into some impact at the plate, and the fact that he doesn't turn 18 until August should help a little bit. He was committed to Florida State, but the Indians signed him for $1 million, about $80,000 below slot.

3-101: 1B Joe Naranjo (Ayala HS [CA], unranked)
If you're familiar with some of the more well known prospects in this year's draft, Joe Naranjo is a bit similar to Reds third rounder Tyler Callihan, who could have gone in the first or comp round if he was more signable. Naranjo, out of a Los Angeles-area high school, is currently hit over power, showing a natural ability to get his pitch and drive the ball to the gaps for extra base hits. At six feet tall, he's unlikely to grow into a ton more power, but he has natural loft in his swing and with his feel for the barrel, he should be able to add some power as he gets stronger and as the Indians tweak his swing mechanics. All the pressure will be on his bat because he's not providing much defensive value at first base, but he has a chance to be a real impact hitter if he can use his feel for hitting to generate more power. He currently projects for about 15 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages, though obviously his ceiling is higher. He signed for $770,000, which was $193,000 above slot.

4-130: SS Christian Cairo (Calvary Christian HS [FL], my rank: 82)
The Indians are going overslot here, but they're getting a great player. The son of former big leaguer Miguel Cairo (1996-2012), Christian inherited his dad's instincts and feel for the game. None of his tools stand out, but he knows the strike zone and makes plenty of contact and should continue to improve with pro coaching despite his lack of present power. Defensively, the Tampa-area native is more likely to end up at second base than shortstop, but he's a smooth defender who makes all the plays and uses his instincts well. With his clean swing and feel for the game on both sides of the ball, he's unlikely to be a star and likely projects for just 5-10, maybe 15 home runs per season, but he should have high on-base percentages as a table-setter type and will be a net positive at second base. At the very least, he should be a utility infielder, which is saying a lot for a high schooler. He had a strong commitment to Louisiana State, but the Indians handed him $955,000, or $520,700 above slot, to come to Cleveland instead.

5-160: RHP Hunter Gaddis (Georgia State, unranked)
Even though he's a college pitcher, Hunter Gaddis is a bit more of an upside play than a safe bet. He's a 6'6" righty who grew up north of Atlanta, then attended a smaller program in Georgia State. He was very good as a sophomore (2.95 ERA, 98/24 K/BB), though his junior season was more up and down as he posted a 4.85 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 112/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 innings against fairly mediocre competition. However, he also had a 2.00 ERA and a 13/4 strikeout to walk ratio over a brief, 18 inning Cape Cod stint, so he has had some success against better hitters. Gaddis is an interesting study as a pitcher, as he has an awkward delivery with a lot of seemingly out of sync moving parts, but he still throws plenty of strikes with four pitches. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider and changeup as well as a mediocre curveball, but he gets hit harder than he should when he leaves his pitches over the plate. He also doesn't get much extension and that gives hitters a longer look, which will hurt him more in pro ball. The Indians will have to make some mechanical changes to help him reach his potential of a #3 or #4 starter, which are never guaranteed to work, but the stuff and command are good enough that it could pay big dividends. He signed for $415,000, which was $90,900 above slot.

8-250: OF Will Brennan (Kansas State, unranked)
Brennan was a two-way player at Kansas State, though he only posted a 6.40 ERA and a 39/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings as a pitcher, so he was drafted as a hitter. His offensive numbers were much better, as he slashed .291/.369/.417 with four home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 12/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games, though that was down from .359/.454/.427 as a sophomore. He's very much a contact hitter, as he is extremely difficult to strike out and hits mostly singles and doubles, though slightly more power might be possible if the Indians decide to go that route. Overall, he projects as a fourth or fifth outfielder, as he did slash just .233/.294/.247 over 39 games on the Cape. The Kansas City-area native signed right at slot value for $163,900.

14-430: SS Ike Freeman (North Carolina, unranked)
I'm not sure if Freeman signs in the 14th round, but he's a good get as a potential utility infielders if the Indians can sign him. In 2019, he slashed .293/.436/.427 with six home runs and a 32/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games. He's a fairly average player across the board, but he produced at a big program at UNC and held his own in the Cape Cod League (.250/.329/.397, 17/7 K/BB), with his strong plate discipline and ability to stick in the infield helping his whole package play up. Freeman probably won't add power and he's unlikely to ever start regularly for the Indians, but the North Carolina native should be a good solid utility infielder if his approach can translate up and he can continue to get on base and hit for some moderate impact.

30-910: C Jonathan French (Parkview HS [GA], my rank: 101)
As a likely third to fifth rounder based on skill, French probably won't sign here with a strong commitment to Clemson and a used up Cleveland bonus pool. He has a clean swing and shows some power, but swing and miss questions make him a bit risky as a hitter. He's better defensively, as he needs work on refining his game back there but has no glaring flaws, and that will buy the hit tool time to develop. If he can get to that power consistently, he could eventually be a starting catcher in the major leagues, something that's harder and harder to come by. The Atlanta native likely eclipse Kyle Wilkie as Clemson's best catcher since Chris Okey, who was drafted in the second round by the Reds in 2016.

2019 Draft Preview: Catchers

Drafting catchers is extremely risky, because catching is both the most demanding and the most difficult job on the diamond. Most catchers are either considered bat-first or glove-first, and many struggle to develop the secondary trait because the rigors of catching are either a) too difficult to learn or b) holding back their bat. High school catchers are especially risky, but even college catchers flop with regularity, as we have recently seen with guys like Max Pentecost (2014 Kennesaw State -> Blue Jays), Austin Rei (2015 Washington -> Red Sox), Chris Okey (2016 Clemson -> Reds), and Logan Ice (2016 Oregon State -> Indians).

Tier I: Adley Rutschman, Shea Langeliers
While catchers tend to be risky, there are two excellent options right at the top, by themselves making this a banner year for college catching. Adley Rutschman is the best catching prospect in recent memory, topping even Joey Bart (2018 Georgia Tech -> Giants), Mike Zunino (2012 Florida -> Mariners), and Matt Wieters (2007 Georgia Tech -> Orioles). He is exceptional in every facet of the game, absolutely crushing Pac-12 pitching with 16 home runs, a .424/.575/.771 slash line, and a 36/66 strikeout to walk ratio through 51 games, showing power, contact, and plate discipline. Rutschman is as safe a bet as any player in this class to hit well in pro ball, and he could produce 30 or more home runs annually with high on-base percentages. Defensively, he produces plenty of positive value, showing great glove work and a strong arm behind the plate. On top of that, he is considered a strong leader and a hard worker, and in all likelihood the Orioles will pick him first overall. Meanwhile, in most other draft classes, Baylor's Shea Langeliers would be the top catching prospect available. Langeliers is a glove-first catcher with a cannon arm and very good glove work, likely better defensively than even Rutschman. His bat, however, is an interesting story. He was just decent at the plate in 2018 (11 HR, .252/.351/.496, 45/35 K/BB), and a hand injury at the beginning of the season looked to slow him down even further. However, he has been very good since returning, slashing .311/.376/.484 with six home runs and a 24/15 strikeout to walk ratio, and he figures to be an average hitter in the majors. While that's not the most exciting profile, Yadier Molina is still a potential Hall of Famer, though Langeliers figures to hit for a little more power with a little bit lower of an on-base percentage. He looks to be drafted somewhere in the top half of the first round, likely closer to the middle than the front.

Tier II: Ethan Hearn, Jonathan French
The top two high school catchers are pretty close to each other with their stock, though high school catchers in general come with a ton of risk and I'd be weary of picking either of these players on day one. I see Mobile product Ethan Hearn as the slightly better prospect, as he has shown plenty of power and loft at the plate, though he does have some swing and miss in his game. He's solid defensively with his strong arm but needs to clean up the rest of his game behind the plate. Overall, he has the tools to be a successful, productive catcher on both sides of the ball, but tweaking both sides of a catcher's game simultaneously is difficult and Hearn has plenty of risk. He looks to go in the second or third round. Over in the Atlanta area, Jonathan French has a fairly similar profile to Hearn. He shows power from a clean swing, though he also has swing and miss issues and I'm slightly more confident in Hearn's power than his. Defensively, he also has a strong arm and is ahead of Hearn with his overall glove work, but he still has work to do and also comes with plenty of risk. He's also a second or third rounder, but he more likely fits in the third.

Tier III: Kyle McCann, Carter Bins, Thomas Dillard
On the college side, these three come with work to do, just like Hearn and French, but they're also three years older. Kyle McCann plays for Georgia Tech and has absolutely mashed this year, slashing .296/.462/.699 with 22 home runs and a 63/54 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games, showing no doubt about his pure power but raising questions about his hit tool. Sure, McCann can take just about any ACC pitcher deep, but he has also struck out in a quarter of his plate appearances and slashed just .219/.309/.344 in the Cape Cod League last summer. His high walk rate might make teams feel a bit better about the swing and miss, but he's definitely not a lock to get to his power consistently at the next level. Defensively, he's just so-so, and there is a real chance he is forced to move to first base. In the best case scenario, McCann sticks behind the plate and goes on to mash 30 home runs per season in the majors, but in the worst case scenario he flairs out as a minor league first baseman who strikes out too much to be an impact offensively. He looks like a third or fourth rounder. Meanwhile, Fresno State's Carter Bins is McCann's polar opposite. He's a glove-first catcher who will stick behind the plate (though not to Langeliers' caliber), but his bat has been disappointing this year and he's far from a lock to produce in pro ball. He was pretty good as a sophomore (7 HR, .301/.372/.526, 41/17 K/BB), but he has regressed as a junior (5 HR, .263/.370/.389, 42/28 K/BB), showing improved plate discipline and that's about it. He has some loft and whip in his swing that could help him produce some power with wood bats, but the bat speed is closer to average and he might never hit more than 10-15 home runs per season. Combine that with some moderate swing and miss, and Bins looks more like a back-up catcher than a starter, though he has the tools to improve. Lastly, Thomas Dillard is more of a first base prospect, but he has caught some at Ole Miss and a team could choose to run him out there as a catcher and just see what happens. He is having a strong season with the bat for the Rebels, slashing .298/.440/.505 with ten home runs and a 39/50 strikeout to walk ratio through 56 games. He has plenty of pop in his right handed stroke, using his stocky frame and the whip and loft in his swing to drive balls out of the park. Additionally, his strong plate discipline helps cut down the swing and miss in his game to reasonable levels despite the power-oriented swing, and I see him as a better bet to hit in pro ball than both McCann and Bins. However, he is also the most likely of the three to end up at first base, which would put more pressure on his bat to perform. He projects as a 20-25 home run hitter with solid if unspectacular on-base percentages and figures to go in the third or fourth round.

Others: Cooper Johnson, Nick Kahle, Hayden Dunhurst