Showing posts with label Kaleb Wing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kaleb Wing. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 9, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Chicago Cubs

Full list of draftees

Chicago seems to have revolved its draft not around its first picks but around later picks. They went massively under slot value with their first three picks and poured that money into two massive over slot bonuses for preps – righty Kaleb Wing in the fourth round and slugger Josiah Hartshorn in the sixth round, both of whom signed for the two highest bonuses in the Cubs' class outside of first rounder Ethan Conrad. While four of the first six picks were bats, it was overall a pitching-heavy class that included nine arms in a ten pick stretch from the seventh through the sixteenth rounds.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-17: OF Ethan Conrad, Wake Forest
Slot value: $4.75 million. Signing bonus: $3.56 million ($1.19 million below slot value).
My rank: #30. MLB Pipeline: #28. Baseball America: #23.
The Cubs saved a ton of money with their first pick, giving #17 overall pick Ethan Conrad just under the slot value of the #25 pick and saving nearly $1.2 million in the process. He's a very interesting case that teams doubtlessly had widely varied opinions on given his somewhat unique path, and it's likely the Cubs see him as a mid-first round talent for the price of a late first rounder. An Upstate New York native, he began his career near home at Marist and turned into one of the best hitters in the MAAC, even setting the NCAA single game record with four triples against St. Peter's in 2024. Amid a torrid run through the Cape Cod League in which he hit .385/.433/.486, he transferred to Wake Forest and hoped to follow the Seaver King route to the top ten. While he started red hot (.372/.479/.744), he made it just 21 games before going down with a shoulder injury. Conrad does a lot of things well on the baseball field. He is built like a power hitter at 6'3", 220 pounds, but employs more of a balanced approach aimed at making high rates of contact and it works. He keeps his strikeout rates low and had no issue with advanced pitching on the Cape, while posting healthy exit velocity data under the hood that points to at least average power in pro ball, perhaps above average if he can consistently elevate. Additionally, despite his size he can show plus speed once he gets going, giving him a shot to play center field at the next level if he can maintain his conditioning. Given the size, there is probably a better chance he fits in an outfield corner, with the potential to be an average right fielder or an above average left fielder. All in all, the profile actually reminds me a lot of a bigger JJ Wetherholt with a physical build, sneaky athleticism, coordination, and high baseball IQ helping all of their tools play up. Conrad has a shot to hit 15-20 home runs annually, perhaps peaking in the 20's some years at his ceiling, with high on-base percentages and a few stolen bases. Ian Happ is not a bad comp either, though Conrad is a bit bigger and more athletic.

2-56: OF Kane Kepley, North Carolina
Slot value: $1.68 million. Signing bonus: $1.4 million ($280,000 below slot value).
My rank: #76. MLB Pipeline: #84. Baseball America: #60.
Going back to the college ranks, the Cubs picked up a leadoff type in Kane Kepley. Spending his first two collegiate seasons at Liberty, he became known as one of the toughest outs in the Atlantic Sun Conference and put up a robust .461 on-base percentage over two years as an underclassman. Transferring to UNC for his junior season, his production took a step back but most teams attributed that to luck more than anything else, with the Cubs in particular seeing every bit of the second round prospect he was projected to be. Kepley stands just 5'8" and is often the smallest guy on the field, but his baseball IQ is off the charts. He is extraordinarily disciplined at the plate and walked (14.2%) twice as often as he struck out (7.1%) in 2025, flat out refusing to chase bad pitches out of the zone. That was true against elite pitching in the Cape Cod League last summer as well, where he walked 21.6% of the time and struck out just 11.4%. Kepley's quick, flat swing helps him make contact at an enormous rate, giving him a true plus hit tool overall and perhaps plus-plus if you isolate simply contact quantity from contact quality. Now as you may expect, there isn't much power in the profile. While he popped for nine home runs at Liberty in 2024, he hit just three at UNC in 2025 and registered below average exit velocities. The North Carolina native's size limits the raw power and his flat swing limits the game power, so he likely tops out around 5-10 home runs annually in the big leagues and instead relies on ultra high on-base percentages. Meanwhile, he is a plus runner who stole 45 bases (fourth-most in NCAA Division I) and was caught just four times, good for an elite 91.8% success rate. Just as with his hitting, Kepley's baserunning instincts are excellent and that carries over to defense as well, where he plays at 110 miles per hour in center field with no fear of crashing into walls. If he can find enough gaps to rack up doubles and triples, he has a chance to be a big league leadoff hitter. If he struggles to hit for impact and pitchers start to attack him in the zone and force him to rely on poking the ball through holes, he may profile more as a fourth outfielder whose below average arm precludes him from right field.

3-90: RHP Dominick Reid, Abilene Christian
Slot value: $865,500. Signing bonus: $649,125 ($216,375 below slot value).
My rank: #142. MLB Pipeline: #209. Baseball America: #366.
Dominick Reid marks a third consecutive under slot pick as well as a third consecutive transfer, though while Ethan Conrad and Kane Kepley transferred from smaller programs to bigger ones, Reid went the opposite direction. He spent two years at Oklahoma State, where he pitched just 19.1 combined innings on a deep Cowboys pitching staff. Transferring to Abilene Christian for the 2025 season, he immediately stepped into a much larger role and rewarded the coaching staff's faith, dominating an admittedly weaker schedule with 112 strikeouts over fifteen starts. Highlights included a fifteen strikeout masterpiece against Prairie View A&M in March as well as three dominant starts against Tarleton State, Cal Baptist, and Utah Valley (18 IP, 1 ER, 28/1 K/BB) to end the season. Reid sits in the low 90's and touches 96 with his fastball, but it plays up with carrying action from a lower slot. He works between a running two seamer or a cutter in the opposite direction, keeping off of barrels. Unlike most strikeout pitchers, he does not have a reliable breaking ball at this point, with his slider often backing up on him and spinning softly over the plate without the finishing action to get under barrels. However, he makes up for it with a plus changeup with excellent fading action to miss a ton of bats and make hitters look silly. The Dallas-Fort Worth product has an easy, athletic delivery that lends well to average command, and he especially throws the changeup with a ton of conviction to land it where he wants it. Reid clocks in at 6'3" with an ideal pitcher's frame and some projection remaining, lending confidence he can remain as a starter and perhaps add a tick of velocity. Chicago will tinker with his breaking ball to unlock something usable, and that may ultimately be the difference in whether he can get through a big league lineup multiple times. Ultimately, he should be able to pitch off the fastball and changeup alone in a bullpen role if he can live closer to the mid 90's. This is a fun project for Chicago and exactly the kind of sleeper that could surprise people.

4-121: RHP Kaleb Wing, Scotts Valley HS [CA]
Slot value: $623,300. Signing bonus: $1.5 million ($876,700 above slot value).
My rank: #117. MLB Pipeline: #87. Baseball America: #201.
After saving almost $1.7 million over their first three picks, the Cubs dumped about half of those savings into fourth rounder Kaleb Wing, recipient of the third highest bonus in the team's class. In fact, Wing's $1.5 million bonus was close to the slot value of the #61 pick and functioned to keep him from a Loyola Marymount commitment. He reminds me a bit of Billy Carlson, another West Coast two-way prep who went tenth overall to the White Sox, though unlike Carlson, Wing will stick on the mound. He has a low 90's fastball that touches 96, though it has been pushing higher and higher in the velocity department and plays up with significant running action. He drops in a big, two plane curveball with plenty of finish, diving across the plate when he spins it right. While it can pop out of his hand at times and hang up in the zone, it has a chance to be plus in time as he adds power and consistency. Wing has a similarly promising changeup that dives towards the plate, but it can get too soft at times and he'll need to find more consistency. More recently, he has added a slider to the mix to make for a high upside four pitch mix. The 6'2" righty is an excellent athlete that plays a solid shortstop and repeats his delivery well, though he is on the skinnier side and may have less projection than other similarly lanky prep arms. Key for Wing will be continuing to add power across his arsenal, which he has been doing, and getting more consistent with his secondary stuff. There is a chance for three plus pitches in this arsenal if he can do so, and the Cubs are banking on added bulk helping him hold his stuff over a long professional season.

5-151: OF Kade Snell, Alabama
Slot value: $465,400. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($265,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #227. Baseball America: #200.
This is a really nice value pick for the Cubs, who got a really good hitter in Kade Snell for ninth round money here in the fifth round. Snell, who turned 23 shortly after the draft, has had a long, winding college career. He began at Auburn as a pitcher in 2021, but never got into a game due to injuries and transferred to Wallace State JC for two seasons as a two-way player. Returning to the SEC, he joined Alabama in 2024 and again worked as a two-way player, but gave up pitching for his redshirt senior season in 2025 and responded with a huge season at the plate. Snell is a metric monster. When Baseball America released its data through mid-April, he was one of just four hitters to post a contact rate above 90%, with the other three all getting drafted in the top 81 picks. Not only that, but he had the highest 90th percentile exit velocity of any BA 500 hitter with a contact rate above even just 84%, smoking the competition. He has a flat swing that gets long through the zone and is designed to rope line drives around the field, which he does with plenty of authority showing very solid-average top-end exit velocities. The power plays down a tick because the swing is geared more for line drives, but he hits a ton of them. A patient hitter, he draws plenty of walks then rarely misses when he does swing, doing damage against all pitch types and ultimately running a minuscule 6.9% strikeout rate even while facing a tough SEC schedule with Alabama. He hit .342/.435/.456 in 21 games in the Cape Cod League back in 2023, and at this point there's little question that he has one of the best combinations of pro-readiness and impact in the entire draft. While he's a below average runner that will be limited to an outfield corner, he has plenty of arm strength with a fastball that's been up to 93 and should show adequately in either corner. Given his age, he'll expect to move quickly.

6-181: OF Josiah Hartshorn, Orange Lutheran HS [CA]
Slot value: $355,800. Signing bonus: $2 million ($1.64 million above slot value).
My rank: #77. MLB Pipeline: #108. Baseball America: #167.
With all the saving going on with every pick but the Kaleb Wing pick, it almost feels like the Cubs coordinated much of their draft to make this pick. Josiah Hartshorn, selected here at pick #181, signed for the second highest bonus in the Cubs' class with a bonus roughly the value of the #49 overall pick early in the second round. He had previously been committed to Texas A&M. A product of powerhouse Orange Lutheran in Southern California that also produced numerous recent big leaguers and top prospects, most notably Gerrit Cole, Hartshorn could wind up the best hitter ever to come out of the school. While he has a long track record of performance against top pitching, he rose late in the draft with strong impressions down the stretch in his senior season of high school ball. He already has a big league body at 6'2", 220 pounds, helping him bring a heavy barrel from both sides of the plate and produce plus power that he's tapping more and more in games. Not just a masher, Hartshorn's experience against top arms has paid off and he manages the strike zone well. With his power coming naturally, he's able to make plenty of contact too. Unfortunately, he's dealt with back and elbow injuries that have thrown a wrench in things, so the hope is that with more consistent time on the field, the hit tool could get to above average to complement the plus power. The nagging injuries have hurt his defense as well, with fringy speed and arm strength that could tick up with increased health or continue to tick down as he ages. Regardless, Chicago is buying a potential 25-30 homer bat that could produce high on-base percentages to boot. If he winds up at first base, that's still plenty of offense to profile.

7-211: LHP Pierce Coppola, Florida
Slot value: $278,500. Signing bonus: $278,500.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #430.
Pierce Coppola is an interesting pick with lots to digest. He was a top prospect in the 2021 draft who ranked #187 on my board that year, but made it to campus at Florida where he figured to step into a big role. Unfortunately, it wasn't until 2024 that he made his second appearance for the Gators after injuries all but wiped out his first two seasons, then he struggled to an 8.75 ERA (albeit with a promising 35/12 K/BB) in 2024. He came out of the gate sharp in 2025 and cut his ERA down to 2.53 while running his strikeout rate to an absurd 46.7%, but went down with an undisclosed injury after seven starts and did not return until the MLB Draft Combine in June after the season. Coppola's fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96 at peak, playing up because of the natural extension he creates with his big frame. The 6'8" lefty has inconsistent secondary stuff headlined by a solid slider, while his changeup is a third pitch at this point. He has never thrown more than 23.2 innings in a season and thus it's not surprising that much of his game remains raw, especially for such a lanky kid who needs consistent reps to keep everything in sync, and his command is a similar story to his secondary stuff. Durability is a big concern especially given his age (turning 23 in December) and the amount of ground he needs to cover to get up to speed, so there is a wide range of outcomes here. He's healthy now and Chicago is banking on him staying that way, with the sneaky upside of a starting pitcher. More likely is that the New Jersey native winds up in the bullpen, where his fastball/slider combination would likely pick up and his massive size would make for an uncomfortable at bat.

15-451: RHP Noah Edders, Troy
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $100,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #411.
The Cubs finally grabbed a local kid in the fifteenth round. Noah Edders grew up in Woodridge, a suburb about 22 miles southwest of downtown Chicago, and attended nearby Downers Grove South High School. Beginning his career at Bradley, he worked his way into the rotation to middling results. He transferred south to Troy for the 2025 season and again posted an up and down year, but finished strong with 10.2 (earned) run-less, walk-less innings and nine strikeouts in the MLB Draft League. Edders throws a sinker in the low 90's that tops out around 94 and can mold it into a couple different shapes, giving him a dynamic if average offering to start with. His slider is probably his best pitch with tight, late bite to sneak under barrels, while he also has a less consistent changeup. He's big and physical at a listed 6'4", 230 pounds with a smooth, easy delivery to help him live in and around the zone. While the command isn't pinpoint, it's solid enough and the Cubs likely think the size and delivery point to a durable workhorse starting pitcher who can handle a long, grinding pro season. Getting a bit more consistent with his secondary stuff and perhaps adding a tick to his fastball will help him get to his back-end starter ceiling.