#10 North Carolina State at Virginia Tech
3/29: VT 10, NC State 2
3/30: NC State 14, VT 1
3/31: NC State 1, VT 0
I caught all of Game One, almost all of Game Two (left in 8th due to Passover), and the last few innings of Game Three (came late also due to Passover) this weekend, and here are some notes from what I saw. Unfortunately, English Field does not have a stadium radar gun, so I wasn't able to get velocities on all pitchers, though I was able to get some general ranges from a friend with a radar gun. Naturally, this list will focus more on the Wolfpack than the Hokies, as the Wolfpack are full of new faces that I haven't gotten to analyze before. I'll publish similar lists after the series with Louisville and Duke.
General Notes
Virginia Tech
The Hokies, now 11-15, continued their mediocre play with the series loss to the #10 Wolfpack. They managed to get to starter Michael Bienlien as well as relievers Nolan Clenney and Connor Centala in an eight run third inning on Thursday, letting offspeeds go and making the pitchers come to them. It didn't work against Johnny Piedmonte and Brian Brown, pitchers with better control, the next few days, and the team overall did not look good. The two bright spots for the team were Thursday starter Connor Coward (we'll get to him in a minute) and centerfielder Nick Menken, who made two spectacular catches. On Thursday, he laid out full sprint to catch a deep fly ball in left center, and on Friday, he crashed into the wall, again at full speed, while hanging onto a Brett Kinneman fly ball. So far, haven't seen much to be impressed by from the rest of the team though.
North Carolina State
Previously ranked #10 at D1Baseball, the Wolfpack improved to 23-5 and will hope to move up this week. They are clearly an offense-first team, with one of the game's most dangerous lineups including sluggers Brett Kinneman, Evan Edwards, Will Wilson, and Brad Debo, speedsters Josh McLain and Brock Deatherage, and freshman star Patrick Bailey. It is a team that focuses more on spraying line drives and home runs all over the field than on plate discipline, as many of their hitters seemed to chase pitches out of the zone looking to drive something. The aggressive approach has worked so far with the immense talent of their hitters, and it stands in stark contrast to a team like the famously patient Virginia Cavaliers. They're not scheduled to face any top tier arms nor have they already, so it will be interesting to see how that aggressive approach stacks up against some of the big arms they could face in the NCAA Tournament. Of the two best arm's they've faced, Clemson's Jacob Hennessy and Georgia Tech's Xzavion Curry, they managed fairly well against Hennessy but struggled against a dominant Curry.
Individual Notes
Connor Coward (VT Senior RHP)
2-2, 3.04 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 54/20 K/BB in 47 IP
Coward dominated the Wolfpack on Thursday, allowing just two unearned runs over eight innings on three hits and one walk, striking out nine. He wasn't throwing particularly hard, just 86-88 I was told, but he mixed his fastball, curveball, and changeup well and was able to locate them all around the plate while keeping the offspeeds down in the zone. A senior who has gotten better each year, he's more of a college pitcher than a pro prospect, but what he did against a talented NC State offense should be noticed and he could make a solid late round pick (30+) if he keeps pitching this way.
Jack Owens (VT redshirt Junior 2B)
1 HR, .295/.434/.400, 8 SB, 17/13 K/BB
Owens had a monster redshirt-sophomore season last year (5 HR, .358/.424/.504), but his power and contact are both down this year. Fortunately, though, his walks are up and he's getting hit by pitches at a crazy rate (12 in 26 games so far), giving him a high .434 on-base percentage. Owens is mostly a slap hitter and will have little to no power in pro ball if he makes it that far, so he will have to keep getting on base to keep his value up. I like that he has kicked up his walk rate this year, and his strikeout rate isn't too high, but overall I think the package is just a little light for pro ball. His defense at second base is pretty good, as he is athletic and can get to most balls hit his way.
Brett Kinneman (NC State Junior OF)
12 HR, .336/.418/.750, 3 SB, 22/16 K/BB
Kinneman has demolished opponents' pitching this season, and while he didn't pop any home runs in this series, he showed his talent by taking a Connor Coward fastball over right fielder Stevie Mangrum's head on Thursday, making it look easy in the process. He did chase some offspeed pitches out of the zone, so there is work to do and he's not a first round talent yet, but the lefty has a clean swing and a good enough eye in the zone to square up fastballs with ease. At this point, he's looking like he could be a top 100 pick, and if he can improve his plate discipline a little bit, he could crack the top 50 in time.
Brock Deatherage (NC State Senior OF)
5 HR, .324/.427/.510, 14 SB, 32/14 K/BB
Deatherage has had a very up and down career in Raleigh, slashing .317/.395/.482 as a sophomore in 2016 but dropping to .218/.304/.330 as a junior last year, leading to a 29th round selection in the draft. He has continued his streaky hitting this year, and with a huge game on Friday, he's back up to a career-best .324/.427/.510. He has a lean build and a ton of speed which plays on both sides of the ball. The streakiness in his bat stems from his aggressive approach and long swing, where he keeps his hands back before whipping the bat through the zone. That swing generates some impressive power, highlighted by a big home run on Friday that cleared the right field bullpen, but also leads to swing and miss. He's worth a top 20 round pick this year, but he could push himself into the top ten rounds if he cuts down on his strikeouts and stays consistent for the rest of the season.
Josh McLain (NC State Senior OF)
2 HR, .333/.348/.447, 5 SB, 10/4 K/BB
McLain is a little guy, listed at six feet tall and 165 pounds, but he knows his game. He's a speedy center fielder who can get to most balls, and he uses a short, quick swing to spray line drives and fly balls around the park. There's not much swing and miss in his game as he has a very good eye at the plate, but this leads to a low walk rate which saps his value. He doesn't have a high ceiling but as he continues to slap everything he sees into the outfield, he might not be a bad pick in the late rounds. Even though he's a senior, he's young for his class and is actually a month older than junior Brett Kinneman. He just has to get his walk rate up, because his strikeout rate has dropped each of the four seasons he has been in Raleigh.
Will Wilson (NC State Sophomore SS)
7 HR, .324/.427/.581, 0 SB, 17/18 K/BB
He's not draft eligible yet, but he may be the highest drafted player on this team when it's all said and done. The sophomore shortstop is not the biggest guy in the world, but he generates plenty of power for his size through a quick, whippy swing that generates a ton of torque. His power is mostly to the pull side and probably will always remain so, but he still has the ability to drive line drives into right field with zip. He can lose control of the strike zone at times and has a bit more swing and miss than you'd expect given his 17/18 strikeout to walk ratio, but that should be fixed as he matures, and he already shows a generally good eye at the plate. Defensively, he's unspectacular at shortstop and will probably have to move off the position. He has a strong arm but also has a tendency to sail his throws, and his range is so-so, so he might be better off at second or third base. I really like him as a prospect, and he might be a first round pick in my book in 2019 if he keeps hitting the way he is.
Michael Bienlien (NC State Sophomore RHP)
2-2, 4.96 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 11/4 K/BB in 16 IP
Bienlien was a 40th round pick out of high school in Chesapeake, Virginia in 2016 (in fact the same Great Bridge program that produced Justin Upton), though he hasn't gotten great results quite yet with the Wolfpack. Bienlien started off strong on Thursday, but his command deteriorated each inning and he was knocked out in the third as Tech went on to score eight runs in the inning. Bienlien throws from a high three quarters arm slot and can run his fastball up to 95 while sitting 91-93, and it has good run on it that makes it tough to square up. His curveball is kind of slurvy and needs to be tightened, and the Hokies were able to get to him when they realized he struggled to throw strikes with it. When it comes to his fastball, his overall control is better than his within-the-zone command, but he has been able to keep his walks down throughout his career and that was apparent in the early going on Thursday. He just needs to tighten his breaking stuff and his junior year next year will be telling.
Patrick Bailey (NC State Freshman C)
3 HR, .309/.400/.485, 9/10 K/BB
Bailey was a heralded recruit out of high school in High Point, North Carolina, finding himself drafted in the 37th round in 2017 before coming to campus. He has lived up to his billing and more so far, showing power and a surprisingly keen eye at the plate. Despite being a true freshman who doesn't turn 19 until May, he has walked more than he has struck out and continued to select good pitches during this series. He gets his power from a clean swing with few holes, and his power should increase as he fills out his frame. Behind the plate, he shows the tools to stick at catcher, with a strong arm and good mobility. At times, he tried to do too much or rush himself, which led to a throwing error on Thursday, but it's important to remember that he's just 18. In Kinneman, Wilson, and Bailey, this team could have a top 100 or even a top 50 pick in each of the next three drafts.
Others
Joe Freiday Jr. (Virginia Tech): 6'4" catcher with a ton of power and arm strength, surprisingly good defense behind the plate but too much swing and miss at this point to be seriously considered as a pro prospect
Evan Edwards (NC State): JuCo transfer slashing .318/.438/.612 with 8 home runs this season, using a long, quick swing to generate plenty of power and hard contact. Does have swing and miss in his game due to the length of his swing
Brad Debo (NC State): Sophomore who only DH'd this weekend, put up big numbers as a freshman (.335/.387/.493) but has slumped a bit this year (.271/.386/.371). Value is in his bat, but his swing includes some arm bar and I think teams have taken advantage of that
Kent Klyman (NC State): Sophomore who has been dominant with a running high 80's fastball and a good slider, decent command and an imposing presence at 6'7"
Saturday, March 31, 2018
Friday, March 30, 2018
Season Preview: NL Central
Division Crown Contenders: Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers
Additional Wild Card Contenders: None
Unlikely to Contend: Pirates, Reds
The race for the NL Central crown looks to be the most interesting division race in baseball, with three teams who could legitimately win. The Cubs are the favorites, retaining much of the same lineup that won them the World Series in 2016 as well as some fresh faces on the pitching staff. The Cardinals and Brewers got better as well, and it wouldn't be surprising if both NL Wild Card winners came out of this division. Neither the Cardinals' nor the Brewers' roster quite stacks up to that of the Cubs, but the difference isn't all that big and anything can happen over the course of 162 games. This will likely be the only three-way division battle in the majors. The Pirates are just beginning their own rebuild and retain plenty of their major pieces, while the Reds' rebuild is starting to bare fruit but isn't quite ready to begin moving the team upwards.
Chicago Cubs
Notable Additions: Yu Darvish, Tyler Chatwood, Brandon Morrow, Steve Cishek
Notable Losses: Jake Arrieta, Wade Davis, John Lackey, Koji Uehara, Hector Rondon, Alex Avila, Jon Jay
Summary: Well-rounded team with deep roster, two star hitters in Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, and a very good rotation that will only be helped by an excellent defense. Again the team to beat in the NL Central.
The Cubs retain one of the best teams in baseball, right up there with the Nationals, Indians, and Red Sox and just behind the Astros, Yankees, and Dodgers. A familiar offense that has remained largely untouched over the past couple of seasons retains the deadly duo of Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo at the heart. However, behind Bryant and Rizzo, the team is really about depth over star power, as they have five guys capable of starting in the outfield and playing well (Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora, Ian Happ, Ben Zobrist) as well as one of the better backup catchers in the game in 24 year old rookie Victor Caratini. The defense should be as good as ever, with Heyward, Bryant, Javy Baez, Rizzo, Addison Russell, and Willson Contreras all carrying excellent gloves, enough to make up for Schwarber's mediocrity in left field. These great gloves will all help the pitchers play up, and the rotation looks a bit different than it did at the start of last season. Out are Jake Arrieta and John Lackey, and in their places stand Yu Darvish, Jose Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood, pushing Mike Montgomery and Eddie Butler out of the rotation. In addition, Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks remain, giving the Cubs five above average starters as well as two very competent pieces further down the depth chart. Wade Davis, Koji Uehara, and Hector Rondon are all gone from the bullpen, but Brandon Morrow and Steve Cishek have joined Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards Jr., and Brian Duensing to form a very good core. The team's two main strengths are starting pitching and defense, but it's overall still a very well-rounded team that would surprise nobody by making a deep postseason run.
St. Louis Cardinals
Notable Additions: Marcell Ozuna, Miles Mikolas, Greg Holland, Luke Gregerson, Bud Norris, Jason Motte
Notable Losses: Lance Lynn, Trevor Rosenthal, Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk, Aledmys Diaz, Seung-Hwan Oh, Zach Duke
Summary: A very deep roster that lacks a true star, but one that can sum many, many valuable parts to make a very good team. Not quite on the same level as the Cubs, but not far behind.
The Cardinals' roster may not have as many flashy names as the Cubs, but don't count them out. They bring and offense as deep as anybody's that's not led by any one particular player, but is rather the sum of Marcell Ozuna, Jedd Gyorko, Tommy Pham, Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong, Kolten Wong, and co. Each of those guys can hit, and their backups are just as good. Jose Martinez may be the most underrated player in the game, coming off a season where he slashed .309/.379/.518 with 14 home runs and backed it up with high exit velocities and an overall excellent batted ball profile. Greg Garcia is just a backup as well but he gets on base at a ridiculous rate. Molina's soon-to-be backup catcher, Carson Kelly, is among the best catching prospects in the game. There's no Bryant or Rizzo, but the offense is just as deep as the Cubbies'. On the mound, it's the same story. Carlos Martinez leads a rotation that includes veterans Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright, as well as youngsters Luke Weaver and Jack Flaherty, plus Japan transfer Miles Mikolas. In May, the Cards are expected to get top prospect Alex Reyes back from Tommy John surgery, and he could single handedly change the complexion of the pitching staff. The bullpen is led by newly acquired relief ace Greg Holland, but its real strength here is depth over star power, with Luke Gregerson, Tyler Lyons, Dominic Leone, Brett Cecil, and more, it's a better bullpen then people realize. The lack of a true star as well as a slightly inferior rotation sets them behind the Cubs, but after that, they're pretty much step for step with the division favorites.
Milwaukee Brewers
Notable Additions: Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Jhoulys Chacin, Boone Logan, Yovani Gallardo, Wade Miley, Matt Albers
Notable Losses: Neil Walker, Matt Garza, Wily Peralta, Lewis Brinson, Carlos Torres
Summary: Very unbalanced roster with a surplus of outfielders and a dearth of starting pitching, will be led by its offense while hoping the pitching can keep the opposition down just enough
The Brewers made quite a few big acquisitions this offseason and have a lot of talent on the roster; the problem is that it might be the most unbalanced roster in baseball. This team legitimately has six or seven guys who are capable of starting in a major league outfield, yet obviously only three can at a time. Meanwhile, the rotation is lacking to the point where it could keep them from seriously challenging the Cubs and Cardinals. We'll get to that later. This outfield includes the newly acquired Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, as well as the power hitting Domingo Santana, veteran and former MVP Ryan Braun, utility man Hernan Perez, 20-20 man Keon Broxton, and highly regarded prospect Brett Phillips. All but Phillips are starter-quality outfielders, and Phillips could be if he got the chance, but he and Broxton will start the season at AAA just due to the crazy amount of depth. Even Braun will be pushed to first base a fair amount, meaning slugger Eric Thames and the power hitting Jesus Aguilar will also have a tough time grabbing at bats. Meanwhile, Travis Shaw and Orlando Arcia will start on the left side of the infield, and the light-hitting Eric Sogard will play second base. It's a very good offense that features a ton of depth in some places, making it pretty similar to the Cubs and Cardinals. Meanwhile, the starting rotation could use some work with ace Jimmy Nelson set to miss significant time early in the season. The Crew went out and signed Jhoulys Chacin, a solid mid-rotation guy, with Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Brent Suter, and rookie Brandon Woodruff taking the other spots. It's not a terrible rotation, but when compared to the other rotations in the division, it's not hard to see how trading an outfielder or two for a pitcher would help tremendously. I would, however, like to see how Josh Hader fairs in the rotation if he ever gets his chance. The bullpen is pretty good, with Corey Knebel serving as the relief ace and Hader, Matt Albers, Boone Logan, and Jeremy Jeffress also likely to get the ball in big situations. If the Brewers can shift around their roster and make it more balanced, they are definitely a team that could contend in the NL Central and even without trades could win an NL Wild Card.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Notable Additions: Corey Dickerson, Joe Musgrove, Colin Moran, Michael Feliz, Kyle Crick, Michael Saunders
Notable Losses: Andrew McCutchen, Gerrit Cole, Daniel Hudson, Chris Stewart
Summary: Just beginning their rebuild, pretty balanced roster without star power, very mediocre bullpen behind Felipe Rivero and George Kontos
The Pirates sold off two of their biggest pieces, Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole, but they still have a fairly balanced roster that could get them to .500. They're unlikely to contend, especially in this tough division, but they won't roll over and die either. There is no centerpiece on offense, with Corey Dickerson, Josh Bell, Starling Marte, and Gregory Polanco forming the heart of the order and guys like Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, David Freese, Colin Moran, and Francisco Cervelli joining them in the lineup. Bell, Moran, and Adam Frazier are young guys to watch here. On the mound, Gerrit Cole is gone, and Ivan Nova looks like he'll be the only veteran in the rotation. Behind him, young guys like Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams, Chad Kuhl, and Joe Musgrove will get starts, and if anyone falters or gets hurt, Tyler Glasnow could get another shot and Steven Brault could start as well. The bullpen is led by Felipe Rivero, one of the best relievers in the game, and George Kontos, but otherwise lacks depth and will rely on unproven relievers like Michael Feliz, Josh Smoker, and Dovydas Neverauskas. This certainly isn't a contending team, so with injuries, they could fall to the bottom of the league, but even a good season wouldn't get them much higher than .500.
Cincinnati Reds
Notable Additions: Ben Revere, Jared Hughes, David Hernandez, Vance Worley
Notable Losses: Zack Cozart, Drew Storen
Summary: Rebuilding team with some fun guys to watch in Joey Votto, Billy Hamilton, and Luis Castillo, not expected to make much noise as a team but prospects making the majors are always interesting
The Reds are a few years into their rebuild, and some of their prospects are starting to reach the majors, so like many of the other rebuilding teams, they should be fun to watch. Joey Votto, one of the game's best hitters, stands virtually alone as an impact bat on offense, with Eugenio Suarez, Scooter Gennett, and Adam Duvall providing as much protection as they can. Tucker Barnhart can swing it a little as well, and if Devin Mesoraco can bounce back, that's another valuable player behind the plate. Scott Schebler will look to repeat his 30 homer performance from last season, while prospects Jesse Winker and Phillip Ervin will look to make their mark on the big club. Meanwhile, Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza don't provide much value at the plate, but Peraza has a good glove and Hamilton is one of the best defenders in the game. The rotation is led by ace Luis Castillo, but behind him, there's not much going on in terms of established talent. Homer Bailey hasn't been effective in years, Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan combined to pitch in four games last season, and Sal Romano and Tyler Mahle are unproven. That said, DeSclafani was very good in 2016, and I'd consider Romano a breakout candidate for 2018. Mahle even threw a perfect game in the minors last season. The bullpen does have some veteran names, with Raisel Iglesias leading David Hernandez and Jared Hughes, but Amir Garrett and Kevin Shackelford could also push their way through. Overall, it's a young team that's not ready to contend, but there are some interesting guys to watch.
Additional Wild Card Contenders: None
Unlikely to Contend: Pirates, Reds
The race for the NL Central crown looks to be the most interesting division race in baseball, with three teams who could legitimately win. The Cubs are the favorites, retaining much of the same lineup that won them the World Series in 2016 as well as some fresh faces on the pitching staff. The Cardinals and Brewers got better as well, and it wouldn't be surprising if both NL Wild Card winners came out of this division. Neither the Cardinals' nor the Brewers' roster quite stacks up to that of the Cubs, but the difference isn't all that big and anything can happen over the course of 162 games. This will likely be the only three-way division battle in the majors. The Pirates are just beginning their own rebuild and retain plenty of their major pieces, while the Reds' rebuild is starting to bare fruit but isn't quite ready to begin moving the team upwards.
Chicago Cubs
Notable Additions: Yu Darvish, Tyler Chatwood, Brandon Morrow, Steve Cishek
Notable Losses: Jake Arrieta, Wade Davis, John Lackey, Koji Uehara, Hector Rondon, Alex Avila, Jon Jay
Summary: Well-rounded team with deep roster, two star hitters in Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, and a very good rotation that will only be helped by an excellent defense. Again the team to beat in the NL Central.
The Cubs retain one of the best teams in baseball, right up there with the Nationals, Indians, and Red Sox and just behind the Astros, Yankees, and Dodgers. A familiar offense that has remained largely untouched over the past couple of seasons retains the deadly duo of Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo at the heart. However, behind Bryant and Rizzo, the team is really about depth over star power, as they have five guys capable of starting in the outfield and playing well (Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora, Ian Happ, Ben Zobrist) as well as one of the better backup catchers in the game in 24 year old rookie Victor Caratini. The defense should be as good as ever, with Heyward, Bryant, Javy Baez, Rizzo, Addison Russell, and Willson Contreras all carrying excellent gloves, enough to make up for Schwarber's mediocrity in left field. These great gloves will all help the pitchers play up, and the rotation looks a bit different than it did at the start of last season. Out are Jake Arrieta and John Lackey, and in their places stand Yu Darvish, Jose Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood, pushing Mike Montgomery and Eddie Butler out of the rotation. In addition, Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks remain, giving the Cubs five above average starters as well as two very competent pieces further down the depth chart. Wade Davis, Koji Uehara, and Hector Rondon are all gone from the bullpen, but Brandon Morrow and Steve Cishek have joined Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards Jr., and Brian Duensing to form a very good core. The team's two main strengths are starting pitching and defense, but it's overall still a very well-rounded team that would surprise nobody by making a deep postseason run.
St. Louis Cardinals
Notable Additions: Marcell Ozuna, Miles Mikolas, Greg Holland, Luke Gregerson, Bud Norris, Jason Motte
Notable Losses: Lance Lynn, Trevor Rosenthal, Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk, Aledmys Diaz, Seung-Hwan Oh, Zach Duke
Summary: A very deep roster that lacks a true star, but one that can sum many, many valuable parts to make a very good team. Not quite on the same level as the Cubs, but not far behind.
The Cardinals' roster may not have as many flashy names as the Cubs, but don't count them out. They bring and offense as deep as anybody's that's not led by any one particular player, but is rather the sum of Marcell Ozuna, Jedd Gyorko, Tommy Pham, Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong, Kolten Wong, and co. Each of those guys can hit, and their backups are just as good. Jose Martinez may be the most underrated player in the game, coming off a season where he slashed .309/.379/.518 with 14 home runs and backed it up with high exit velocities and an overall excellent batted ball profile. Greg Garcia is just a backup as well but he gets on base at a ridiculous rate. Molina's soon-to-be backup catcher, Carson Kelly, is among the best catching prospects in the game. There's no Bryant or Rizzo, but the offense is just as deep as the Cubbies'. On the mound, it's the same story. Carlos Martinez leads a rotation that includes veterans Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright, as well as youngsters Luke Weaver and Jack Flaherty, plus Japan transfer Miles Mikolas. In May, the Cards are expected to get top prospect Alex Reyes back from Tommy John surgery, and he could single handedly change the complexion of the pitching staff. The bullpen is led by newly acquired relief ace Greg Holland, but its real strength here is depth over star power, with Luke Gregerson, Tyler Lyons, Dominic Leone, Brett Cecil, and more, it's a better bullpen then people realize. The lack of a true star as well as a slightly inferior rotation sets them behind the Cubs, but after that, they're pretty much step for step with the division favorites.
Milwaukee Brewers
Notable Additions: Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Jhoulys Chacin, Boone Logan, Yovani Gallardo, Wade Miley, Matt Albers
Notable Losses: Neil Walker, Matt Garza, Wily Peralta, Lewis Brinson, Carlos Torres
Summary: Very unbalanced roster with a surplus of outfielders and a dearth of starting pitching, will be led by its offense while hoping the pitching can keep the opposition down just enough
The Brewers made quite a few big acquisitions this offseason and have a lot of talent on the roster; the problem is that it might be the most unbalanced roster in baseball. This team legitimately has six or seven guys who are capable of starting in a major league outfield, yet obviously only three can at a time. Meanwhile, the rotation is lacking to the point where it could keep them from seriously challenging the Cubs and Cardinals. We'll get to that later. This outfield includes the newly acquired Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, as well as the power hitting Domingo Santana, veteran and former MVP Ryan Braun, utility man Hernan Perez, 20-20 man Keon Broxton, and highly regarded prospect Brett Phillips. All but Phillips are starter-quality outfielders, and Phillips could be if he got the chance, but he and Broxton will start the season at AAA just due to the crazy amount of depth. Even Braun will be pushed to first base a fair amount, meaning slugger Eric Thames and the power hitting Jesus Aguilar will also have a tough time grabbing at bats. Meanwhile, Travis Shaw and Orlando Arcia will start on the left side of the infield, and the light-hitting Eric Sogard will play second base. It's a very good offense that features a ton of depth in some places, making it pretty similar to the Cubs and Cardinals. Meanwhile, the starting rotation could use some work with ace Jimmy Nelson set to miss significant time early in the season. The Crew went out and signed Jhoulys Chacin, a solid mid-rotation guy, with Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Brent Suter, and rookie Brandon Woodruff taking the other spots. It's not a terrible rotation, but when compared to the other rotations in the division, it's not hard to see how trading an outfielder or two for a pitcher would help tremendously. I would, however, like to see how Josh Hader fairs in the rotation if he ever gets his chance. The bullpen is pretty good, with Corey Knebel serving as the relief ace and Hader, Matt Albers, Boone Logan, and Jeremy Jeffress also likely to get the ball in big situations. If the Brewers can shift around their roster and make it more balanced, they are definitely a team that could contend in the NL Central and even without trades could win an NL Wild Card.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Notable Additions: Corey Dickerson, Joe Musgrove, Colin Moran, Michael Feliz, Kyle Crick, Michael Saunders
Notable Losses: Andrew McCutchen, Gerrit Cole, Daniel Hudson, Chris Stewart
Summary: Just beginning their rebuild, pretty balanced roster without star power, very mediocre bullpen behind Felipe Rivero and George Kontos
The Pirates sold off two of their biggest pieces, Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole, but they still have a fairly balanced roster that could get them to .500. They're unlikely to contend, especially in this tough division, but they won't roll over and die either. There is no centerpiece on offense, with Corey Dickerson, Josh Bell, Starling Marte, and Gregory Polanco forming the heart of the order and guys like Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, David Freese, Colin Moran, and Francisco Cervelli joining them in the lineup. Bell, Moran, and Adam Frazier are young guys to watch here. On the mound, Gerrit Cole is gone, and Ivan Nova looks like he'll be the only veteran in the rotation. Behind him, young guys like Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams, Chad Kuhl, and Joe Musgrove will get starts, and if anyone falters or gets hurt, Tyler Glasnow could get another shot and Steven Brault could start as well. The bullpen is led by Felipe Rivero, one of the best relievers in the game, and George Kontos, but otherwise lacks depth and will rely on unproven relievers like Michael Feliz, Josh Smoker, and Dovydas Neverauskas. This certainly isn't a contending team, so with injuries, they could fall to the bottom of the league, but even a good season wouldn't get them much higher than .500.
Cincinnati Reds
Notable Additions: Ben Revere, Jared Hughes, David Hernandez, Vance Worley
Notable Losses: Zack Cozart, Drew Storen
Summary: Rebuilding team with some fun guys to watch in Joey Votto, Billy Hamilton, and Luis Castillo, not expected to make much noise as a team but prospects making the majors are always interesting
The Reds are a few years into their rebuild, and some of their prospects are starting to reach the majors, so like many of the other rebuilding teams, they should be fun to watch. Joey Votto, one of the game's best hitters, stands virtually alone as an impact bat on offense, with Eugenio Suarez, Scooter Gennett, and Adam Duvall providing as much protection as they can. Tucker Barnhart can swing it a little as well, and if Devin Mesoraco can bounce back, that's another valuable player behind the plate. Scott Schebler will look to repeat his 30 homer performance from last season, while prospects Jesse Winker and Phillip Ervin will look to make their mark on the big club. Meanwhile, Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza don't provide much value at the plate, but Peraza has a good glove and Hamilton is one of the best defenders in the game. The rotation is led by ace Luis Castillo, but behind him, there's not much going on in terms of established talent. Homer Bailey hasn't been effective in years, Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan combined to pitch in four games last season, and Sal Romano and Tyler Mahle are unproven. That said, DeSclafani was very good in 2016, and I'd consider Romano a breakout candidate for 2018. Mahle even threw a perfect game in the minors last season. The bullpen does have some veteran names, with Raisel Iglesias leading David Hernandez and Jared Hughes, but Amir Garrett and Kevin Shackelford could also push their way through. Overall, it's a young team that's not ready to contend, but there are some interesting guys to watch.
Monday, March 26, 2018
Season Preview: NL East
Division Crown Contenders: Nationals, Mets
Additional Wild Card Contenders: None
Unlikely to Contend: Phillies, Braves, Marlins
The NL East has been one of the game's weaker divisions over the past few seasons, and while that won't change in a big way in 2018, the Phillies, Braves, and even the Mets are trending up (Mets more short term than long term), with the Phillies and Braves in particular having two of the strongest farm systems in the game. That said, the Nationals have reigned in this division and it will be tough for anybody to catch them; the Mets have the best shot, in fact a better shot than many people think, but that doesn't change that the clear favorites play in the nation's capital. The NL Wild Card race as a whole looks to be very competitive this season, so if they don't catch the Nationals, it will be tough, but doable, for the Mets to crack the postseason. The Phillies and Braves aren't quite ready to grab a Wild Card in this environment, and the Marlins look like the worst team in baseball at the moment.
Washington Nationals
Notable Additions: Matt Adams, Jeremy Hellickson, Joaquin Benoit, Miguel Montero
Notable Losses: Jayson Werth, Adam Lind, Stephen Drew, Matt Albers, Oliver Perez
Summary: More or less the same team from last year, the Nationals are in that second tier just behind the "super teams" in New York, LA, and Houston, showcasing a star-studded roster with a lot of depth on offense
The Nationals' roster is largely unchanged from last season, swapping pinch hitter Adam Lind out for Matt Adams and reliever Matt Albers for Joaquin Benoit. The only glaring difference, really will be the loss of Jayson Werth, who spent the last seven seasons with the club, but his role was beginning to be reduced anyways, so it's more of an off-field loss than an on-field one. The Nationals are the Indians of the NL; they're excellent, but not quite a super-team like the Yankees, Astros, or Dodgers. The offense is led by MVP candidates Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon, with guys like Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, Adam Eaton, and a rejuvenated Ryan Zimmerman also swinging big bats. Michael A. Taylor looks to start the season as the team's center fielder, but with Victor Robles waiting in the wings, he knows he'll have to play at a high level to keep his job. Perhaps the biggest question on offense comes behind the plate, where Matt Wieters will need to bounce back offensively to keep from being a liability in the lineup. Adams, Howie Kendrick, Brian Goodwin, and Wilmer Difo add to a versatile bench. On the mound, the Nationals' front four starters look as good as anybody's in Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Tanner Roark, but the question lies in the fifth spot. A.J. Cole, Jeremy Hellickson, Erick Fedde, and Austin Voth have all competed for it, but it looks like it will go to Cole, a talented arm who has never really gotten his footing in the majors. Joe Ross is set to return late in the season, and he will be a valuable asset once he does. The bullpen return's the core trio acquired at the deadline in Sean Doolittle, Brandon Kintzler, and Ryan Madson, with Shawn Kelley and Enny Romero also looking to make an impact, as well as Benoit when he returns from a forearm injury. The roster has some holes, but it is so elite in other areas with Harper, Rendon, Scherzer, and Strasburg headlining the roster, that it still looks like one of baseball's top five teams.
New York Mets
Notable Additions: Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, Anthony Swarzak, Adrian Gonzalez
Notable Losses: Neil Walker, Nori Aoki
Summary: Better team than most people realize, should be able to ride a strong rotation far enough to get into a battle for a Wild Card and nip at the Nationals' heels in the division
The Mets are a better team than they get credit for. Last year, everything went wrong, especially on the pitching staff, with pretty much everybody but Jacob deGrom missing time or having a considerably worse year than expected. This year, with nowhere to go but up in terms of luck, and with a good offseason, the Mets have perhaps their best team since the 2015 rendition that reached the World Series. Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto (once he returns), Todd Frazier, Jay Bruce, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Travis d'Arnaud form a pretty decent group of bats, and youngsters Amed Rosario, Dom Smith, and Brandon Nimmo are up and looking for breakouts. The rotation, finally healthy aside from Jason Vargas, is the team's strong suit, starting with ace Noah Syndergaard and also including deGrom, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Steven Matz. There is also depth, with Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman waiting in the wings, plus Vargas once he returns from hand surgery. The bullpen is a bit shallower, but Jeurys Familia returns as the relief ace while Anthony Swarzak replaces Addison Reed (traded at the deadline) and A.J. Ramos comes back for his first full season in blue and orange. There are clearly soft spots on the roster, but no glaring holes, with a strong rotation leading an average offense and average bullpen. That should be enough to get them into competition for a Wild Card as well as to keep the Nationals on their toes.
Philadelphia Phillies
Notable Additions: Jake Arrieta, Carlos Santana, Pat Neshek, Tommy Hunter
Notable Losses: Daniel Nava
Summary: Rapidly improving team that isn't quite there yet, but that will use 2018 as a testing ground to see which players it will use for contention in 2019. Won't win a Wild Card, but could flirt with .500.
The end of the rebuild is near, and the Phillies are just about ready to contend. It likely won't happen for another year, especially given how tough the NL Wild Card race will be this year, but don't underestimate these guys. They added Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta on hefty contracts, clearly with towards becoming competitive. On offense, Santana joins Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco, and Nick Williams as they prepare to do some damage, and rookies J.P. Crawford, Jorge Alfaro, Scott Kingery, and Roman Quinn all look to make their presence known. Hernandez could find himself traded at the deadline, setting up Philadelphia's double-play combination of the future between Crawford and Kingery this year. On the mound, Arrieta and Aaron Nola lead a respectable rotation, which will also include some combination of Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Ben Lively, Zach Eflin, and Drew Hutchison. The top is much more impressive than the bottom, but there is a lot of youth there and a couple of guys will likely step up this year. The Phillies also a added Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter to the bullpen, joining Hector Neris, Luis Garcia, and Hoby Milner as core pieces there. There are definitely holes in this team; it's young, and quite a few spots on the diamond will be filled with unproven names, but the team will look to use 2018 as a spring pad into contending in 2019.
Atlanta Braves
Notable Additions: Chris Stewart, Peter Moylan, Anibal Sanchez
Notable Losses: R.A. Dickey, Matt Adams, Jim Johnson, Jason Motte
Summary: About a year behind the Phillies in their rebuild, the Braves will have a ton of talent on their farm and it's just beginning to reach the majors. Expect some intermittent winning streaks, but individual players will be more fun to watch than the team as a whole for now.
It was a quiet offseason in Atlanta, but as with Philadelphia, things are changing. The Braves' rebuild may be about a year behind that of the Phillies, but their farm system is beginning to bear fruit and some fresh faces are beginning to get more playing time. Already, Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies, the team's double play duo of the future, has begun playing together in the bigs, and the 23 year old Rio Ruiz also looks to get reps at third base until Johan Camargo comes back in a few weeks. Around the time Ruiz comes out of the everyday lineup, though, baseball's top prospect, Ronald Acuna, will get his promotion and compete for the NL Rookie of the Year Award. Ender Inciarte, Tyler Flowers, Nick Markakis, and Preston Tucker also bring playable bats, and all of it revolves around slugger Freddie Freeman. It's not an enviable lineup this year, but once Acuna, Swanson, and Albies make all their early-career adjustments, it should be one of the better offenses in baseball. The rotation has a similar story to the offense, only a bit more extreme. Led by Julio Teheran and also consisting of Mike Foltynewicz, Brandon McCarthy, Sean Newcombe, and Anibal Sanchez, it's pretty mediocre, but as with the offense, prospects are on the way. Luiz Gohara will return in May, and Newcombe is a solid prospect in his own right. Down on the farm, guys like Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, Kyle Wright, Max Fried, Joey Wentz, Ian Anderson, Bryse Wilson, and Kyle Muller, among others, combine with Gohara and Newcombe to form possibly the best collection of pitching prospects ever seen, setting up what is likely to be a mega-rotation reminiscent of Maddux-Smoltz-Glavine in the 1990's. However, we're still a few years from that, so Braves fans will just have to be patient. The bullpen lacks elite arms but does have a lot of depth due to the Braves' youth, led by Arodys Vizcaino and continuing with A.J. Minter (yet another pitching prospect) and Jose Ramirez. They won't be competing for a playoff berth, but the young guys will be a lot of fun to watch.
Miami Marlins
Notable Additions: Starlin Castro, Cameron Maybin, Lewis Brinson
Notable Losses: Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Dee Gordon, Ichiro Suzuki, Vance Worley
Summary: The full-blown rebuild is in the midst, leaving the Marlins with very few proven pieces and a club that could end up with the worst record in the majors. Offense is ahead of the pitching at this point, for whatever that's worth.
The Marlins went into a full fire sale this offseason, selling off the entire outfield plus second baseman Dee Gordon. It puts them in a pretty rough position when it comes to 2018, but their farm system did jump from arguably the worst in baseball to something almost resembling average. There's work to do, as J.T. Realmuto, Justin Bour, and Starlin Castro might be on the chopping block next, so this team could tank further. For now, Realmuto, Bour, Castro, and Derek Dietrich look to make up the diminished offensive core, with prospects Lewis Brinson, Brian Anderson, and Magneuris Sierra looking to take advantage of open opportunities. Brinson in particular has a very good shot at competing for the NL Rookie of the Year Award. The rotation is just as young, led by a pretty good arm in Jose Urena followed by a bunch of pitchers who are either hurt (Dan Straily, Wei-Yin Chen) or unproven (Odrisamer Despaigne, Jacob Turner). The bullpen is in no better a position, led by Brad Ziegler, Kyle Barraclaugh, and Drew Steckenrider and lacking any kind of depth behind them. It shouldn't be news to anybody that the Marlins are likely to finish last in the division, and quite possible last in the majors.
Additional Wild Card Contenders: None
Unlikely to Contend: Phillies, Braves, Marlins
The NL East has been one of the game's weaker divisions over the past few seasons, and while that won't change in a big way in 2018, the Phillies, Braves, and even the Mets are trending up (Mets more short term than long term), with the Phillies and Braves in particular having two of the strongest farm systems in the game. That said, the Nationals have reigned in this division and it will be tough for anybody to catch them; the Mets have the best shot, in fact a better shot than many people think, but that doesn't change that the clear favorites play in the nation's capital. The NL Wild Card race as a whole looks to be very competitive this season, so if they don't catch the Nationals, it will be tough, but doable, for the Mets to crack the postseason. The Phillies and Braves aren't quite ready to grab a Wild Card in this environment, and the Marlins look like the worst team in baseball at the moment.
Washington Nationals
Notable Additions: Matt Adams, Jeremy Hellickson, Joaquin Benoit, Miguel Montero
Notable Losses: Jayson Werth, Adam Lind, Stephen Drew, Matt Albers, Oliver Perez
Summary: More or less the same team from last year, the Nationals are in that second tier just behind the "super teams" in New York, LA, and Houston, showcasing a star-studded roster with a lot of depth on offense
The Nationals' roster is largely unchanged from last season, swapping pinch hitter Adam Lind out for Matt Adams and reliever Matt Albers for Joaquin Benoit. The only glaring difference, really will be the loss of Jayson Werth, who spent the last seven seasons with the club, but his role was beginning to be reduced anyways, so it's more of an off-field loss than an on-field one. The Nationals are the Indians of the NL; they're excellent, but not quite a super-team like the Yankees, Astros, or Dodgers. The offense is led by MVP candidates Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon, with guys like Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, Adam Eaton, and a rejuvenated Ryan Zimmerman also swinging big bats. Michael A. Taylor looks to start the season as the team's center fielder, but with Victor Robles waiting in the wings, he knows he'll have to play at a high level to keep his job. Perhaps the biggest question on offense comes behind the plate, where Matt Wieters will need to bounce back offensively to keep from being a liability in the lineup. Adams, Howie Kendrick, Brian Goodwin, and Wilmer Difo add to a versatile bench. On the mound, the Nationals' front four starters look as good as anybody's in Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Tanner Roark, but the question lies in the fifth spot. A.J. Cole, Jeremy Hellickson, Erick Fedde, and Austin Voth have all competed for it, but it looks like it will go to Cole, a talented arm who has never really gotten his footing in the majors. Joe Ross is set to return late in the season, and he will be a valuable asset once he does. The bullpen return's the core trio acquired at the deadline in Sean Doolittle, Brandon Kintzler, and Ryan Madson, with Shawn Kelley and Enny Romero also looking to make an impact, as well as Benoit when he returns from a forearm injury. The roster has some holes, but it is so elite in other areas with Harper, Rendon, Scherzer, and Strasburg headlining the roster, that it still looks like one of baseball's top five teams.
New York Mets
Notable Additions: Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, Anthony Swarzak, Adrian Gonzalez
Notable Losses: Neil Walker, Nori Aoki
Summary: Better team than most people realize, should be able to ride a strong rotation far enough to get into a battle for a Wild Card and nip at the Nationals' heels in the division
The Mets are a better team than they get credit for. Last year, everything went wrong, especially on the pitching staff, with pretty much everybody but Jacob deGrom missing time or having a considerably worse year than expected. This year, with nowhere to go but up in terms of luck, and with a good offseason, the Mets have perhaps their best team since the 2015 rendition that reached the World Series. Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto (once he returns), Todd Frazier, Jay Bruce, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Travis d'Arnaud form a pretty decent group of bats, and youngsters Amed Rosario, Dom Smith, and Brandon Nimmo are up and looking for breakouts. The rotation, finally healthy aside from Jason Vargas, is the team's strong suit, starting with ace Noah Syndergaard and also including deGrom, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Steven Matz. There is also depth, with Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman waiting in the wings, plus Vargas once he returns from hand surgery. The bullpen is a bit shallower, but Jeurys Familia returns as the relief ace while Anthony Swarzak replaces Addison Reed (traded at the deadline) and A.J. Ramos comes back for his first full season in blue and orange. There are clearly soft spots on the roster, but no glaring holes, with a strong rotation leading an average offense and average bullpen. That should be enough to get them into competition for a Wild Card as well as to keep the Nationals on their toes.
Philadelphia Phillies
Notable Additions: Jake Arrieta, Carlos Santana, Pat Neshek, Tommy Hunter
Notable Losses: Daniel Nava
Summary: Rapidly improving team that isn't quite there yet, but that will use 2018 as a testing ground to see which players it will use for contention in 2019. Won't win a Wild Card, but could flirt with .500.
The end of the rebuild is near, and the Phillies are just about ready to contend. It likely won't happen for another year, especially given how tough the NL Wild Card race will be this year, but don't underestimate these guys. They added Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta on hefty contracts, clearly with towards becoming competitive. On offense, Santana joins Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco, and Nick Williams as they prepare to do some damage, and rookies J.P. Crawford, Jorge Alfaro, Scott Kingery, and Roman Quinn all look to make their presence known. Hernandez could find himself traded at the deadline, setting up Philadelphia's double-play combination of the future between Crawford and Kingery this year. On the mound, Arrieta and Aaron Nola lead a respectable rotation, which will also include some combination of Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Ben Lively, Zach Eflin, and Drew Hutchison. The top is much more impressive than the bottom, but there is a lot of youth there and a couple of guys will likely step up this year. The Phillies also a added Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter to the bullpen, joining Hector Neris, Luis Garcia, and Hoby Milner as core pieces there. There are definitely holes in this team; it's young, and quite a few spots on the diamond will be filled with unproven names, but the team will look to use 2018 as a spring pad into contending in 2019.
Atlanta Braves
Notable Additions: Chris Stewart, Peter Moylan, Anibal Sanchez
Notable Losses: R.A. Dickey, Matt Adams, Jim Johnson, Jason Motte
Summary: About a year behind the Phillies in their rebuild, the Braves will have a ton of talent on their farm and it's just beginning to reach the majors. Expect some intermittent winning streaks, but individual players will be more fun to watch than the team as a whole for now.
It was a quiet offseason in Atlanta, but as with Philadelphia, things are changing. The Braves' rebuild may be about a year behind that of the Phillies, but their farm system is beginning to bear fruit and some fresh faces are beginning to get more playing time. Already, Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies, the team's double play duo of the future, has begun playing together in the bigs, and the 23 year old Rio Ruiz also looks to get reps at third base until Johan Camargo comes back in a few weeks. Around the time Ruiz comes out of the everyday lineup, though, baseball's top prospect, Ronald Acuna, will get his promotion and compete for the NL Rookie of the Year Award. Ender Inciarte, Tyler Flowers, Nick Markakis, and Preston Tucker also bring playable bats, and all of it revolves around slugger Freddie Freeman. It's not an enviable lineup this year, but once Acuna, Swanson, and Albies make all their early-career adjustments, it should be one of the better offenses in baseball. The rotation has a similar story to the offense, only a bit more extreme. Led by Julio Teheran and also consisting of Mike Foltynewicz, Brandon McCarthy, Sean Newcombe, and Anibal Sanchez, it's pretty mediocre, but as with the offense, prospects are on the way. Luiz Gohara will return in May, and Newcombe is a solid prospect in his own right. Down on the farm, guys like Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, Kyle Wright, Max Fried, Joey Wentz, Ian Anderson, Bryse Wilson, and Kyle Muller, among others, combine with Gohara and Newcombe to form possibly the best collection of pitching prospects ever seen, setting up what is likely to be a mega-rotation reminiscent of Maddux-Smoltz-Glavine in the 1990's. However, we're still a few years from that, so Braves fans will just have to be patient. The bullpen lacks elite arms but does have a lot of depth due to the Braves' youth, led by Arodys Vizcaino and continuing with A.J. Minter (yet another pitching prospect) and Jose Ramirez. They won't be competing for a playoff berth, but the young guys will be a lot of fun to watch.
Miami Marlins
Notable Additions: Starlin Castro, Cameron Maybin, Lewis Brinson
Notable Losses: Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Dee Gordon, Ichiro Suzuki, Vance Worley
Summary: The full-blown rebuild is in the midst, leaving the Marlins with very few proven pieces and a club that could end up with the worst record in the majors. Offense is ahead of the pitching at this point, for whatever that's worth.
The Marlins went into a full fire sale this offseason, selling off the entire outfield plus second baseman Dee Gordon. It puts them in a pretty rough position when it comes to 2018, but their farm system did jump from arguably the worst in baseball to something almost resembling average. There's work to do, as J.T. Realmuto, Justin Bour, and Starlin Castro might be on the chopping block next, so this team could tank further. For now, Realmuto, Bour, Castro, and Derek Dietrich look to make up the diminished offensive core, with prospects Lewis Brinson, Brian Anderson, and Magneuris Sierra looking to take advantage of open opportunities. Brinson in particular has a very good shot at competing for the NL Rookie of the Year Award. The rotation is just as young, led by a pretty good arm in Jose Urena followed by a bunch of pitchers who are either hurt (Dan Straily, Wei-Yin Chen) or unproven (Odrisamer Despaigne, Jacob Turner). The bullpen is in no better a position, led by Brad Ziegler, Kyle Barraclaugh, and Drew Steckenrider and lacking any kind of depth behind them. It shouldn't be news to anybody that the Marlins are likely to finish last in the division, and quite possible last in the majors.
Sunday, March 25, 2018
Season Preview: AL West
Division Crown Contenders: Astros
Additional Wild Card Contenders: Angels, Mariners
Unlikely to Contend: Athletics, Rangers
The division race itself won't be too fun to watch, as the Astros are fielding a super team and in all likelihood will have the race all but won by the trade deadline. However, the Angels and Mariners both have valid Wild Card hopes, and this division could have four teams finish above .500 if either the A's or Rangers get hot. The Angels in particular have improved significantly, and at this point have a very good shot at a Wild Card. The Mariners aren't particularly special, but they're good enough, especially behind that deep offense, and there will be a lot of scraping and clawing in the middle of the division. The A's are improved and the Rangers have taken a step back, so it's tough to tell who will end up in the cellar. Look forward to some fun races, even if the Astros are miles ahead of everyone else.
Houston Astros
Notable Additions: Gerrit Cole, Joe Smith, Hector Rondon
Notable Losses: Carlos Beltran, Cameron Maybin, Joe Musgrove, Mike Fiers, Luke Gregerson, Michael Feliz, Tyler Clippard, Francisco Liriano
Summary: One of the best offenses ever built? Check. Dominant starting rotation one through five with backup plans? Check. Good bullpen? Check. Good luck beating the Astros this year.
It may look like the Astros lost a lot of players, but compared to the quality of the players they picked up, this team is definitely improved, which is a scary thought considering they won the World Series last season. There really are no holes on this roster; with baseball's best offense (sorry Yankees) and arguably baseball's best rotation, as well as a solid bullpen. Let's start with the offense: between Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer, any of whom could win the AL MVP Award this year, as well as Alex Bregman, Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis, Brian McCann, and Yuli Gurriel, this team can hurt you one through nine in the lineup. Even on the bench, with Jake Marisnick, J.D. Davis, Tyler White, and Derek Fisher, you're going to have a tough time getting outs at any point in the game. As fun as the Aaron Judge/Giancarlo Stanton/Gary Sanchez trio will be to watch in New York, the Altuve/Correa/Springer trio in Houston is nearly as good, and they provide much more defensive value to boot. On the mound, Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Lance McCullers, and Charlie Morton fill out a very good rotation, so even if the offense goes quiet for a day, they'll still be in a position to win. Behind them, Brad Peacock and Collin McHugh could easily step in for extended periods of time in the case of injury. Ken Giles, Chris Devenski, and Will Harris form one of the better bullpen trios in the game, and Hector Rondon and Joe Smith are very nice additions in their own right. Devenski in particular is one of the most valuable relievers in the game, with the ability to go multiple innings at an extremely high level of effectiveness. This roster is not only well rounded but elite in all regards, basically the Mike Trout of baseball teams. It would be a major upset to see them fall anywhere short of the ALCS.
Los Angeles Angels
Notable Additions: Shohei Ohtani, Zack Cozart, Ian Kinsler, Rene Rivera, Chris Young, Chris Carter
Notable Losses: Huston Street, Yusmeiro Petit, Ricky Nolasco, Jesse Chavez, Bud Norris, C.J. Cron, Brandon Phillips, Yunel Escobar, Ben Revere
Summary: High upside team with Mike Trout/Shohei Ohtani looking to be one of the most exciting pairs of teammates, rebuilt offense with strong defense but questionable pitching staff with a ton of talent and not much depth or certainty
The Angels struck gold by adding two way star Shohei Ohtani, and that set off an offseason in which they shored up the whole offense to get ready for at least a Wild Card run. They won't catch the Astros, but the Angels are as good on paper as the Red Sox and Twins and could make a lot of noise if they stay healthy. The offense, which was shallow last season, added Ohtani at DH, Ian Kinsler at second base, Zack Cozart at third, and Chris Carter, Chris Young, and Rene Rivera to the bench while only losing C.J. Cron, Brandon Phillips, Yunel Escobar, and Ben Revere. In addition to the newcomers, it goes without saying that Mike Trout is the best player in the game, and Justin Upton, Kole Calhoun, and Andrelton Simmons have good bats as well. Interestingly, defense will be a strong suit for the team, with Simmons, Trout, Cozart, and Martin Maldonado carrying excellent gloves, and Ian Kinsler showing the ability to flash the leather as well. The rotation, however, could perform at any number of levels. The talent is high, but of the six possible starters, only one topped 90 innings last season and none topped 150 innings. Ace Garrett Richards has been as dominant as anybody on a per-inning basis, but has been limited to twelve starts over the past two seasons. Andrew Heaney has made six in the same span. Tyler Skaggs reached the majors in 2012 but has never made more than 18 starts in a season. Matt Shoemaker missed half of last season. Of course, Ohtani is a complete wild card, and even he missed much of the season in Japan. Only J.C. Ramirez (147.1 innings) actually pitched what could be called a full season. There's lots of talent there, especially in Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, and Ohtani, but absolutely nothing is guaranteed with any of those guys. Lastly, the bullpen is a little bit of a jumble, as it lost many key pieces from 2017, with Blake Parker, Keynan Middleton, and Cam Bedrosian left to form the heart, definitely making the bullpen a weak spot. Overall, the Angels have a lot of upside, especially with Ohtani, but the pitching staff has a lot of holes that could become glaring if a few injuries occur in the starting rotation.
Seattle Mariners
Notable Additions: Ichiro Suzuki, Dee Gordon, Ryon Healy, Juan Nicasio
Notable Losses: Yonder Alonso, Danny Valencia, Jarrod Dyson, Yovani Gallardo, Emilio Pagan
Summary: Unlike most Mariners teams, this one will get by with a strong, balanced offense while hoping a mediocre pitching staff can hold opponents down just enough
The Mariners are kind of stuck in that not really competing but not rebuilding area, which will see them field a team in the .500 range but not one quite good enough to make a deep postseason run. It was a relatively quiet offseason by Jerry DiPoto standards, as he made just two notable trades and signed a couple of free agents. The offense actually does look about as balanced as it has ever been, with Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano forming the heart and Jean Segura, Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger, Mike Zunino, newcomers Dee Gordon and Ryon Healy, and returnee Ichiro Suzuki playing support. It's not elite, but one through nine (OK maybe one through eight, but we love Ichiro) can hurt you, especially if Haniger can build on last year's breakout. This has not been typical of Mariners teams in the past. The rotation's success may hinge around face of the franchise Felix Hernandez, who we all remember as one of the best pitchers in baseball from 2009-2014 but who has seen his ERA rise from 2.14 in 2014 to 3.53 in 2015, 3.82 in 2016, and 4.36 in 2017. Since he made his debut less than four months after his 19th birthday, it's easy to forget that he's still doesn't turn 32 until April, so hopefully he can turn it around. Behind him, James Paxton was quietly one of the better arms in the game last year and could even improve further this season, and Mike Leake is a reliable veteran. However, Ariel Miranda, Marco Gonzales, and Erasmo Ramirez are all wild cards, making the rotation a weak spot overall. Edwin Diaz, Juan Nicasio, and Nick Vincent headline what looks more or less like an average bullpen, especially with David Phelps set to miss the season.
Oakland Athletics
Notable Additions: Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Buchter, Emilio Pagan, Yusmeiro Petit, Brett Anderson
Notable Losses: Ryon Healy, Jesse Hahn, John Axford, Chris Carter
Summary: Not quite good enough to contend yet, but the A's got better and have a deep roster filled with guys looking to make impressions, so don't expect them to roll over and play .400 ball
Like everybody above them in this division, the A's got better this offseason, and while they likely won't contend, in the words of MLB.com writer Mike Petriello, they'll be "interesting." Khris Davis, Matt Olson, Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, and Marcus Semien are back to lead an almost-average offense (and I mean that as a compliment, considering where they were last year), and Stephen Piscotty came over from the Cardinals to add more support. Additionally, prospects like Franklin Barreto, Renato Nunez, and Dustin Fowler look ready to step up, just as Olson and Matt Chapman did last season. Think of them as the White Sox of the AL Central. On the mound, there is no standout arm, but 27 year old Kendall Graveman is the elder statesman in the rotation as everybody comes into the season with something to prove. Losing Jharel Cotton to Tommy John surgery was big, but behind Graveman, they still have Sean Manaea, Daniel Mengden, Andrew Triggs, and Daniel Gossett, some of whom were quietly pretty good last season. Depending on how he pitches, top prospect A.J. Puk could be up to contribute as well later in the season. The bullpen has seen almost a complete makeover; the only relievers on both the 2016 and the 2018 teams are Liam Hendricks, Ryan Dull, and Danny Coulombe. Push it back to the start of the 2015 season, and you have 100% turnover. Blake Treinen, Ryan Buchter, and Emilio Pagan look to take the lead, with Chris Hatcher, Yusmeiro Petit, and Santiago Casilla looking to play big roles as well. What this team lacks in star power it makes up for in depth; they won't contend, but they'll be interesting.
Texas Rangers
Notable Additions: Mike Minor, Doug Fister, Jesse Chavez, Tim Lincecum
Notable Losses: Andrew Cashner, Carlos Gomez, Mike Napoli, Miguel Gonzalez, Tyson Ross
Summary: Team on the downswing, lacking depth on both offense and in the rotation, but a deep bullpen and a few nice pieces around the roster should be enough to at least make them relevant.
The Rangers were the only team in the AL West to get worse this offseason, and while they still have a pretty good team, they've probably fallen behind everybody else in the division. There is no centerpiece on offense, though with veteran Adrian Beltre and go-big-or-go-home Joey Gallo making up the top two bats, and Nomar Mazara, Elvis Andrus, and Shin-Soo Choo also looking to contribute on a high level, they do have something to work with. It's a pretty shallow offense overall, not typical for the Rangers, though it will be interesting to see how Ryan Rua performs with regular playing time. The rotation isn't much better, led by Cole Hamels, Matt Moore, Doug Fister, Martin Perez, and Mike Minor, guys who all have had success in the past but who all have questions heading into 2018 (even Hamels posted an ERA north of 4.00 last season). The bullpen does look like the lone strong spot for this team, because even without a true relief ace, the combination of Alex Claudio, Matt Bush, Jake Diekman, and Keone Kela looks like a good base for a very deep collection of arms. If Tim Lincecum takes well to a transition to the bullpen, it could be even better. Between Beltre, Gallo, Hamels, and the bullpen, the Rangers should have just enough going for them to hang around, but not enough to make much noise.
Additional Wild Card Contenders: Angels, Mariners
Unlikely to Contend: Athletics, Rangers
The division race itself won't be too fun to watch, as the Astros are fielding a super team and in all likelihood will have the race all but won by the trade deadline. However, the Angels and Mariners both have valid Wild Card hopes, and this division could have four teams finish above .500 if either the A's or Rangers get hot. The Angels in particular have improved significantly, and at this point have a very good shot at a Wild Card. The Mariners aren't particularly special, but they're good enough, especially behind that deep offense, and there will be a lot of scraping and clawing in the middle of the division. The A's are improved and the Rangers have taken a step back, so it's tough to tell who will end up in the cellar. Look forward to some fun races, even if the Astros are miles ahead of everyone else.
Houston Astros
Notable Additions: Gerrit Cole, Joe Smith, Hector Rondon
Notable Losses: Carlos Beltran, Cameron Maybin, Joe Musgrove, Mike Fiers, Luke Gregerson, Michael Feliz, Tyler Clippard, Francisco Liriano
Summary: One of the best offenses ever built? Check. Dominant starting rotation one through five with backup plans? Check. Good bullpen? Check. Good luck beating the Astros this year.
It may look like the Astros lost a lot of players, but compared to the quality of the players they picked up, this team is definitely improved, which is a scary thought considering they won the World Series last season. There really are no holes on this roster; with baseball's best offense (sorry Yankees) and arguably baseball's best rotation, as well as a solid bullpen. Let's start with the offense: between Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer, any of whom could win the AL MVP Award this year, as well as Alex Bregman, Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis, Brian McCann, and Yuli Gurriel, this team can hurt you one through nine in the lineup. Even on the bench, with Jake Marisnick, J.D. Davis, Tyler White, and Derek Fisher, you're going to have a tough time getting outs at any point in the game. As fun as the Aaron Judge/Giancarlo Stanton/Gary Sanchez trio will be to watch in New York, the Altuve/Correa/Springer trio in Houston is nearly as good, and they provide much more defensive value to boot. On the mound, Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Lance McCullers, and Charlie Morton fill out a very good rotation, so even if the offense goes quiet for a day, they'll still be in a position to win. Behind them, Brad Peacock and Collin McHugh could easily step in for extended periods of time in the case of injury. Ken Giles, Chris Devenski, and Will Harris form one of the better bullpen trios in the game, and Hector Rondon and Joe Smith are very nice additions in their own right. Devenski in particular is one of the most valuable relievers in the game, with the ability to go multiple innings at an extremely high level of effectiveness. This roster is not only well rounded but elite in all regards, basically the Mike Trout of baseball teams. It would be a major upset to see them fall anywhere short of the ALCS.
Los Angeles Angels
Notable Additions: Shohei Ohtani, Zack Cozart, Ian Kinsler, Rene Rivera, Chris Young, Chris Carter
Notable Losses: Huston Street, Yusmeiro Petit, Ricky Nolasco, Jesse Chavez, Bud Norris, C.J. Cron, Brandon Phillips, Yunel Escobar, Ben Revere
Summary: High upside team with Mike Trout/Shohei Ohtani looking to be one of the most exciting pairs of teammates, rebuilt offense with strong defense but questionable pitching staff with a ton of talent and not much depth or certainty
The Angels struck gold by adding two way star Shohei Ohtani, and that set off an offseason in which they shored up the whole offense to get ready for at least a Wild Card run. They won't catch the Astros, but the Angels are as good on paper as the Red Sox and Twins and could make a lot of noise if they stay healthy. The offense, which was shallow last season, added Ohtani at DH, Ian Kinsler at second base, Zack Cozart at third, and Chris Carter, Chris Young, and Rene Rivera to the bench while only losing C.J. Cron, Brandon Phillips, Yunel Escobar, and Ben Revere. In addition to the newcomers, it goes without saying that Mike Trout is the best player in the game, and Justin Upton, Kole Calhoun, and Andrelton Simmons have good bats as well. Interestingly, defense will be a strong suit for the team, with Simmons, Trout, Cozart, and Martin Maldonado carrying excellent gloves, and Ian Kinsler showing the ability to flash the leather as well. The rotation, however, could perform at any number of levels. The talent is high, but of the six possible starters, only one topped 90 innings last season and none topped 150 innings. Ace Garrett Richards has been as dominant as anybody on a per-inning basis, but has been limited to twelve starts over the past two seasons. Andrew Heaney has made six in the same span. Tyler Skaggs reached the majors in 2012 but has never made more than 18 starts in a season. Matt Shoemaker missed half of last season. Of course, Ohtani is a complete wild card, and even he missed much of the season in Japan. Only J.C. Ramirez (147.1 innings) actually pitched what could be called a full season. There's lots of talent there, especially in Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, and Ohtani, but absolutely nothing is guaranteed with any of those guys. Lastly, the bullpen is a little bit of a jumble, as it lost many key pieces from 2017, with Blake Parker, Keynan Middleton, and Cam Bedrosian left to form the heart, definitely making the bullpen a weak spot. Overall, the Angels have a lot of upside, especially with Ohtani, but the pitching staff has a lot of holes that could become glaring if a few injuries occur in the starting rotation.
Seattle Mariners
Notable Additions: Ichiro Suzuki, Dee Gordon, Ryon Healy, Juan Nicasio
Notable Losses: Yonder Alonso, Danny Valencia, Jarrod Dyson, Yovani Gallardo, Emilio Pagan
Summary: Unlike most Mariners teams, this one will get by with a strong, balanced offense while hoping a mediocre pitching staff can hold opponents down just enough
The Mariners are kind of stuck in that not really competing but not rebuilding area, which will see them field a team in the .500 range but not one quite good enough to make a deep postseason run. It was a relatively quiet offseason by Jerry DiPoto standards, as he made just two notable trades and signed a couple of free agents. The offense actually does look about as balanced as it has ever been, with Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano forming the heart and Jean Segura, Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger, Mike Zunino, newcomers Dee Gordon and Ryon Healy, and returnee Ichiro Suzuki playing support. It's not elite, but one through nine (OK maybe one through eight, but we love Ichiro) can hurt you, especially if Haniger can build on last year's breakout. This has not been typical of Mariners teams in the past. The rotation's success may hinge around face of the franchise Felix Hernandez, who we all remember as one of the best pitchers in baseball from 2009-2014 but who has seen his ERA rise from 2.14 in 2014 to 3.53 in 2015, 3.82 in 2016, and 4.36 in 2017. Since he made his debut less than four months after his 19th birthday, it's easy to forget that he's still doesn't turn 32 until April, so hopefully he can turn it around. Behind him, James Paxton was quietly one of the better arms in the game last year and could even improve further this season, and Mike Leake is a reliable veteran. However, Ariel Miranda, Marco Gonzales, and Erasmo Ramirez are all wild cards, making the rotation a weak spot overall. Edwin Diaz, Juan Nicasio, and Nick Vincent headline what looks more or less like an average bullpen, especially with David Phelps set to miss the season.
Oakland Athletics
Notable Additions: Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Buchter, Emilio Pagan, Yusmeiro Petit, Brett Anderson
Notable Losses: Ryon Healy, Jesse Hahn, John Axford, Chris Carter
Summary: Not quite good enough to contend yet, but the A's got better and have a deep roster filled with guys looking to make impressions, so don't expect them to roll over and play .400 ball
Like everybody above them in this division, the A's got better this offseason, and while they likely won't contend, in the words of MLB.com writer Mike Petriello, they'll be "interesting." Khris Davis, Matt Olson, Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, and Marcus Semien are back to lead an almost-average offense (and I mean that as a compliment, considering where they were last year), and Stephen Piscotty came over from the Cardinals to add more support. Additionally, prospects like Franklin Barreto, Renato Nunez, and Dustin Fowler look ready to step up, just as Olson and Matt Chapman did last season. Think of them as the White Sox of the AL Central. On the mound, there is no standout arm, but 27 year old Kendall Graveman is the elder statesman in the rotation as everybody comes into the season with something to prove. Losing Jharel Cotton to Tommy John surgery was big, but behind Graveman, they still have Sean Manaea, Daniel Mengden, Andrew Triggs, and Daniel Gossett, some of whom were quietly pretty good last season. Depending on how he pitches, top prospect A.J. Puk could be up to contribute as well later in the season. The bullpen has seen almost a complete makeover; the only relievers on both the 2016 and the 2018 teams are Liam Hendricks, Ryan Dull, and Danny Coulombe. Push it back to the start of the 2015 season, and you have 100% turnover. Blake Treinen, Ryan Buchter, and Emilio Pagan look to take the lead, with Chris Hatcher, Yusmeiro Petit, and Santiago Casilla looking to play big roles as well. What this team lacks in star power it makes up for in depth; they won't contend, but they'll be interesting.
Texas Rangers
Notable Additions: Mike Minor, Doug Fister, Jesse Chavez, Tim Lincecum
Notable Losses: Andrew Cashner, Carlos Gomez, Mike Napoli, Miguel Gonzalez, Tyson Ross
Summary: Team on the downswing, lacking depth on both offense and in the rotation, but a deep bullpen and a few nice pieces around the roster should be enough to at least make them relevant.
The Rangers were the only team in the AL West to get worse this offseason, and while they still have a pretty good team, they've probably fallen behind everybody else in the division. There is no centerpiece on offense, though with veteran Adrian Beltre and go-big-or-go-home Joey Gallo making up the top two bats, and Nomar Mazara, Elvis Andrus, and Shin-Soo Choo also looking to contribute on a high level, they do have something to work with. It's a pretty shallow offense overall, not typical for the Rangers, though it will be interesting to see how Ryan Rua performs with regular playing time. The rotation isn't much better, led by Cole Hamels, Matt Moore, Doug Fister, Martin Perez, and Mike Minor, guys who all have had success in the past but who all have questions heading into 2018 (even Hamels posted an ERA north of 4.00 last season). The bullpen does look like the lone strong spot for this team, because even without a true relief ace, the combination of Alex Claudio, Matt Bush, Jake Diekman, and Keone Kela looks like a good base for a very deep collection of arms. If Tim Lincecum takes well to a transition to the bullpen, it could be even better. Between Beltre, Gallo, Hamels, and the bullpen, the Rangers should have just enough going for them to hang around, but not enough to make much noise.
Friday, March 23, 2018
Season Preview: AL Central
Division Crown Contenders: Indians, Twins
Unlikely to Contend: White Sox, Royals, Tigers
Like most divisions this year, the AL Central has a clear favorite, and in this case it's the Cleveland Indians. It's not that the Indians are necessarily on the same level as the Yankees or Astros – I think they actually peaked in 2016 – but that the division is overall pretty weak as usual and that they are the only real powerhouse in the division. The Twins had a great offseason and have a better chance at catching the Indians than most people think, but it doesn't change the fact that all smart bets would be on Cleveland. I do think the Twins have a very good chance at capturing a Wild Card, and it'll be a fun three-way battle between them, the Angels, and whoever is in second place between the Red Sox and Yankees. The White Sox will be a fun team to watch, given that the fruits of their rebuild are now beginning to reach the majors, and some of them are ready to make a serious impact. Down at the bottom, the Royals and Tigers look unlikely to make much noise, given the personnel losses suffered in Kansas City and the rebuild occurring in Detroit.
Cleveland Indians
Notable Additions: Yonder Alonso, Rajai Davis, Carlos Torres
Notable Losses: Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli, Jay Bruce, Austin Jackson, Joe Smith, Bryan Shaw, Boone Logan
Summary: A very good team that isn't quite a super team, but they can hold their own against the league powerhouses with a multitude of big bats and high level arms.
The Indians lost their fair share of players this offseason, most notably on offense and in the bullpen. They were able to replace Carlos Santana with Yonder Alonso and Austin Jackson with Rajai Davis, but the offense will otherwise lean heavily on a bounce-back from Michael Brantley if it wants to be as good as last year's. Fortunately, having a healthy Brantley could be better than any free agent addition, as he has played just 101 games over the past two seasons but was worth 9.6 fWAR from 2014-2015 when healthy. Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, and the aforementioned Alonso form a very good core for the lineup with a healthy Brantley, and a breakout from Bradley Zimmer could be icing on the cake for a very good team. They do lack some depth though, as I would not be too confident in a bench made up of Brandon Guyer, Tyler Naquin, Giovanny Urshela, Yan Gomes, and Francisco Mejia, especially in the inevitable case of injuries when one or more will need to step up. On the mound, the rotation looks as good as ever, with Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin, and Mike Clevinger holding down the fort until Danny Salazar returns from a shoulder injury. The bullpen did take heavy losses, losing Joe Smith, Bryan Shaw, and Boone Logan, all productive relievers, while replacing it with an inferior contingent of Carlos Torres, Matt Belisle, Craig Breslow, and Neil Ramirez. That said, Cody Allen and Andrew Miller form one of the best one-two bullpen punches in baseball, and Dan Otero is another high-level arm. This team has some holes, so I wouldn't classify it as a super team, but they're primed for another deep postseason run.
Minnesota Twins
Notable Additions: Lance Lynn, Jake Odorizzi, Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, Zach Duke, Logan Morrison, Erick Aybar
Notable Losses: Hector Santiago, Glen Perkins, Bartolo Colon, Matt Belisle
Summary: Extremely improved team with balanced offense and rotation, lack star power but will contend for a Wild Card spot
The Twins look like they'll be one of the most improved teams of 2018. A very good offseason saw them lose no big pieces, save for Glen Perkins if only because of his service time, but plenty of cost effective additions. Logan Morrison adds a 30 homer bat to an offense that already has some nice pieces in Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario, Joe Mauer, and Byron Buxton, who doubles as arguably baseball's best defensive outfielder. Losing Jorge Polanco for half the season hurts, but the team has a deep lineup with quite a few guys who are capable of stepping up into larger roles if necessary. It doesn't quite match up with Cleveland's offense, but it's not blown out of the water either. On the mound, Jake Odorizzi and Lance Lynn are welcome additions to slot in with Jose Berrios, Ervin Santana, and Kyle Gibson, and the Twins do have a few arms in the high minors that could step in if necessary. Again, it lacks the true ace the Indians have in Corey Kluber, but they should get consistent quality efforts out of each of their starters. The bullpen could be better, but Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, and Zach Duke are big additions that at least make this year's edition better than last year's. Overall, the Twins improved significantly on what wasn't a great team last year, and they have a very good shot at a Wild Card spot. I wouldn't, however, expect them to challenge the Indians unless a lot went right.
Chicago White Sox
Notable Additions: Welington Castillo, Miguel Gonzalez, Joakim Soria, Luis Avilan, Hector Santiago
Notable Losses: Derek Holland, Jake Petricka, Zach Putnam, Mike Pelfrey
Summary: Very young team that is just now beginning to come out of its rebuild, not quite ready yet but they do have a lot of potential future stars to watch
The White Sox won't contend, but I think this will be the year they get themselves up out of the cellar and at least play some competitive baseball. Behind slugger Jose Abreu, breakout hitter Avisail Garcia, and the newly signed Welington Castillo, the offense has a lot of young guys to watch, including Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, Matt Davidson, Ryan Cordell, Eloy Jimenez, and a personal favorite of mine, Nicky Delmonico. It could really go in any number of directions given the inexperience of most of the hitters, but it will definitely be interesting and should be trending up. The rotation is the same story, as James Shields may be the worst Opening Day starter in baseball this year, but up-and-comers Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Carson Fulmer, and if we're lucky, Michael Kopech, will all get a chance to make their marks this year. Additionally, once Carlos Rodon returns from his shoulder injury, we can see the former 3rd overall pick try to work his way up to stardom as well. The bullpen is rebuilt with Joakim Soria and Luis Avilan coming in to replace Jake Petricka and Zach Putnam, and more young guys should push their way through the cracks to join that duo as well as Nate Jones and Danny Farquhar. It's not a great bullpen, but the White Sox aren't looking to contend anyways. I could definitely see them finishing near .500 though.
Kansas City Royals
Notable Additions: Jon Jay, Lucas Duda, Ricky Nolasco, Wily Peralta, Jesse Hahn
Notable Losses: Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Melky Cabrera, Brandon Moss, Jason Vargas, Mike Minor, Ryan Buchter, Scott Alexander, Chris Young
Summary: The Royals are about to enter into another rebuild, but management did decide to build at least a somewhat competitive team for 2018 and they at least won't roll over and play dead as they begin to sell off assets
The Royals' window to contend seems to have closed, but they got a World Series Championship in 2015 so they have to be happy with how it went down. Now, they're left with a shallow MLB roster and an even shallower farm system after two of the franchise faces, Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain, left via free agency. It's time to start rebuilding, which the Royals have been to a small extent, so it wouldn't be surprising to see some moves at the deadline. The team isn't terrible, as the front office clearly put some effort into trying to be competitive by bringing back Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar while signing Jon Jay, Lucas Duda, and Ricky Nolasco, among others, so there is at least something to look forward to in 2018. The Hosmer and Cain-less offense is now led by Moustakas, Duda, Whit Merrifield, and Salvador Perez, plus hopefully a long, long awaited breakout from Jorge Soler. The defense is pretty good, too, with Perez and Alex Gordon owning some of the best gloves in baseball and Jay and Escobar being capable of some highlight reel plays as well. Ricky Nolasco replaces Jason Vargas in the rotation, with Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, and Jason Hammel sitting atop the veteran unit. The Royals also have plenty of big league-ready prospects who can step in, such as Jake Junis (not technically a prospect after throwing 98.1 innings last season), Eric Skoglund, and Scott Barlow. The crop of prospects isn't nearly as good as the that of the White Sox, but it will be interesting nonetheless, at least on the mound. The bullpen saw significant turnover too and will likely not be as good this year, one major weakness for the team. Overall, they won't contend, and it's likely the beginning of another rebuild in Kansas City.
Detroit Tigers
Notable Additions: Francisco Liriano, Mike Fiers, Leonys Martin, Travis Wood
Notable Losses: Ian Kinsler, Alex Presley, Bryan Holaday, Tyler Collins, Bruce Rondon
Summary: Rebuilding team that lacks impact players outside of Miguel Cabrera, Nicholas Castellanos, and Michael Fulmer, likely to continue rebuild through the season
It was a quiet offseason in Detroit, as the rebuild is on and the team is set to go dormant for a couple of seasons. Justin Verlander and J.D. Martinez were shipped off during the season, and Ian Kinsler is gone to Los Angeles, leaving Miguel Cabrera as the sole star remaining on the team. If nothing else, Cabrera is a fun one to watch, sitting 38 home runs shy of 500 for his career and already possessing a Hall of Fame resume. He was one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball last year and should bounce back from his .249/.329/.399 slash line from last season. Joining him on offense will be Nicholas Castellanos and fellow long, longtime veteran Victor Martinez, who is 39 and entering his 17th major league season. One guy to watch will be third baseman Jeimer Candelario, who came over from Chicago in the Justin Wilson trade and who looks like an early AL Rookie of the Year candidate. Mike Mahtook, Dixon Machado, and Victor Reyes are more guys who could see increased playing time this year and try to make their mark. The rotation is definitely a weak spot, led by Michael Fulmer, Jordan Zimmermann, Francisco Liriano, and Mike Fiers, of which only Fulmer can be considered above average at this point. Daniel Norris as well will try to bounce back from a tough 2017. The bullpen has a couple of nice pieces at the top in Shane Greene and Alex Wilson, but it's otherwise pretty barren and will rely on a lot of young guys to step up. Fortunately, the Tigers seem to be hoarding right handed pitching prospects, so we could see guys like Beau Burrows, Franklin Perez, and even Kyle Funkhouser try to break through onto the weak pitching staff. Rookies are fun to watch, but they don't always win games, so don't expect Detroit to finish much higher than .400.
Unlikely to Contend: White Sox, Royals, Tigers
Like most divisions this year, the AL Central has a clear favorite, and in this case it's the Cleveland Indians. It's not that the Indians are necessarily on the same level as the Yankees or Astros – I think they actually peaked in 2016 – but that the division is overall pretty weak as usual and that they are the only real powerhouse in the division. The Twins had a great offseason and have a better chance at catching the Indians than most people think, but it doesn't change the fact that all smart bets would be on Cleveland. I do think the Twins have a very good chance at capturing a Wild Card, and it'll be a fun three-way battle between them, the Angels, and whoever is in second place between the Red Sox and Yankees. The White Sox will be a fun team to watch, given that the fruits of their rebuild are now beginning to reach the majors, and some of them are ready to make a serious impact. Down at the bottom, the Royals and Tigers look unlikely to make much noise, given the personnel losses suffered in Kansas City and the rebuild occurring in Detroit.
Cleveland Indians
Notable Additions: Yonder Alonso, Rajai Davis, Carlos Torres
Notable Losses: Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli, Jay Bruce, Austin Jackson, Joe Smith, Bryan Shaw, Boone Logan
Summary: A very good team that isn't quite a super team, but they can hold their own against the league powerhouses with a multitude of big bats and high level arms.
The Indians lost their fair share of players this offseason, most notably on offense and in the bullpen. They were able to replace Carlos Santana with Yonder Alonso and Austin Jackson with Rajai Davis, but the offense will otherwise lean heavily on a bounce-back from Michael Brantley if it wants to be as good as last year's. Fortunately, having a healthy Brantley could be better than any free agent addition, as he has played just 101 games over the past two seasons but was worth 9.6 fWAR from 2014-2015 when healthy. Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, and the aforementioned Alonso form a very good core for the lineup with a healthy Brantley, and a breakout from Bradley Zimmer could be icing on the cake for a very good team. They do lack some depth though, as I would not be too confident in a bench made up of Brandon Guyer, Tyler Naquin, Giovanny Urshela, Yan Gomes, and Francisco Mejia, especially in the inevitable case of injuries when one or more will need to step up. On the mound, the rotation looks as good as ever, with Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin, and Mike Clevinger holding down the fort until Danny Salazar returns from a shoulder injury. The bullpen did take heavy losses, losing Joe Smith, Bryan Shaw, and Boone Logan, all productive relievers, while replacing it with an inferior contingent of Carlos Torres, Matt Belisle, Craig Breslow, and Neil Ramirez. That said, Cody Allen and Andrew Miller form one of the best one-two bullpen punches in baseball, and Dan Otero is another high-level arm. This team has some holes, so I wouldn't classify it as a super team, but they're primed for another deep postseason run.
Minnesota Twins
Notable Additions: Lance Lynn, Jake Odorizzi, Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, Zach Duke, Logan Morrison, Erick Aybar
Notable Losses: Hector Santiago, Glen Perkins, Bartolo Colon, Matt Belisle
Summary: Extremely improved team with balanced offense and rotation, lack star power but will contend for a Wild Card spot
The Twins look like they'll be one of the most improved teams of 2018. A very good offseason saw them lose no big pieces, save for Glen Perkins if only because of his service time, but plenty of cost effective additions. Logan Morrison adds a 30 homer bat to an offense that already has some nice pieces in Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario, Joe Mauer, and Byron Buxton, who doubles as arguably baseball's best defensive outfielder. Losing Jorge Polanco for half the season hurts, but the team has a deep lineup with quite a few guys who are capable of stepping up into larger roles if necessary. It doesn't quite match up with Cleveland's offense, but it's not blown out of the water either. On the mound, Jake Odorizzi and Lance Lynn are welcome additions to slot in with Jose Berrios, Ervin Santana, and Kyle Gibson, and the Twins do have a few arms in the high minors that could step in if necessary. Again, it lacks the true ace the Indians have in Corey Kluber, but they should get consistent quality efforts out of each of their starters. The bullpen could be better, but Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, and Zach Duke are big additions that at least make this year's edition better than last year's. Overall, the Twins improved significantly on what wasn't a great team last year, and they have a very good shot at a Wild Card spot. I wouldn't, however, expect them to challenge the Indians unless a lot went right.
Chicago White Sox
Notable Additions: Welington Castillo, Miguel Gonzalez, Joakim Soria, Luis Avilan, Hector Santiago
Notable Losses: Derek Holland, Jake Petricka, Zach Putnam, Mike Pelfrey
Summary: Very young team that is just now beginning to come out of its rebuild, not quite ready yet but they do have a lot of potential future stars to watch
The White Sox won't contend, but I think this will be the year they get themselves up out of the cellar and at least play some competitive baseball. Behind slugger Jose Abreu, breakout hitter Avisail Garcia, and the newly signed Welington Castillo, the offense has a lot of young guys to watch, including Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, Matt Davidson, Ryan Cordell, Eloy Jimenez, and a personal favorite of mine, Nicky Delmonico. It could really go in any number of directions given the inexperience of most of the hitters, but it will definitely be interesting and should be trending up. The rotation is the same story, as James Shields may be the worst Opening Day starter in baseball this year, but up-and-comers Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Carson Fulmer, and if we're lucky, Michael Kopech, will all get a chance to make their marks this year. Additionally, once Carlos Rodon returns from his shoulder injury, we can see the former 3rd overall pick try to work his way up to stardom as well. The bullpen is rebuilt with Joakim Soria and Luis Avilan coming in to replace Jake Petricka and Zach Putnam, and more young guys should push their way through the cracks to join that duo as well as Nate Jones and Danny Farquhar. It's not a great bullpen, but the White Sox aren't looking to contend anyways. I could definitely see them finishing near .500 though.
Kansas City Royals
Notable Additions: Jon Jay, Lucas Duda, Ricky Nolasco, Wily Peralta, Jesse Hahn
Notable Losses: Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Melky Cabrera, Brandon Moss, Jason Vargas, Mike Minor, Ryan Buchter, Scott Alexander, Chris Young
Summary: The Royals are about to enter into another rebuild, but management did decide to build at least a somewhat competitive team for 2018 and they at least won't roll over and play dead as they begin to sell off assets
The Royals' window to contend seems to have closed, but they got a World Series Championship in 2015 so they have to be happy with how it went down. Now, they're left with a shallow MLB roster and an even shallower farm system after two of the franchise faces, Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain, left via free agency. It's time to start rebuilding, which the Royals have been to a small extent, so it wouldn't be surprising to see some moves at the deadline. The team isn't terrible, as the front office clearly put some effort into trying to be competitive by bringing back Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar while signing Jon Jay, Lucas Duda, and Ricky Nolasco, among others, so there is at least something to look forward to in 2018. The Hosmer and Cain-less offense is now led by Moustakas, Duda, Whit Merrifield, and Salvador Perez, plus hopefully a long, long awaited breakout from Jorge Soler. The defense is pretty good, too, with Perez and Alex Gordon owning some of the best gloves in baseball and Jay and Escobar being capable of some highlight reel plays as well. Ricky Nolasco replaces Jason Vargas in the rotation, with Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, and Jason Hammel sitting atop the veteran unit. The Royals also have plenty of big league-ready prospects who can step in, such as Jake Junis (not technically a prospect after throwing 98.1 innings last season), Eric Skoglund, and Scott Barlow. The crop of prospects isn't nearly as good as the that of the White Sox, but it will be interesting nonetheless, at least on the mound. The bullpen saw significant turnover too and will likely not be as good this year, one major weakness for the team. Overall, they won't contend, and it's likely the beginning of another rebuild in Kansas City.
Detroit Tigers
Notable Additions: Francisco Liriano, Mike Fiers, Leonys Martin, Travis Wood
Notable Losses: Ian Kinsler, Alex Presley, Bryan Holaday, Tyler Collins, Bruce Rondon
Summary: Rebuilding team that lacks impact players outside of Miguel Cabrera, Nicholas Castellanos, and Michael Fulmer, likely to continue rebuild through the season
It was a quiet offseason in Detroit, as the rebuild is on and the team is set to go dormant for a couple of seasons. Justin Verlander and J.D. Martinez were shipped off during the season, and Ian Kinsler is gone to Los Angeles, leaving Miguel Cabrera as the sole star remaining on the team. If nothing else, Cabrera is a fun one to watch, sitting 38 home runs shy of 500 for his career and already possessing a Hall of Fame resume. He was one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball last year and should bounce back from his .249/.329/.399 slash line from last season. Joining him on offense will be Nicholas Castellanos and fellow long, longtime veteran Victor Martinez, who is 39 and entering his 17th major league season. One guy to watch will be third baseman Jeimer Candelario, who came over from Chicago in the Justin Wilson trade and who looks like an early AL Rookie of the Year candidate. Mike Mahtook, Dixon Machado, and Victor Reyes are more guys who could see increased playing time this year and try to make their mark. The rotation is definitely a weak spot, led by Michael Fulmer, Jordan Zimmermann, Francisco Liriano, and Mike Fiers, of which only Fulmer can be considered above average at this point. Daniel Norris as well will try to bounce back from a tough 2017. The bullpen has a couple of nice pieces at the top in Shane Greene and Alex Wilson, but it's otherwise pretty barren and will rely on a lot of young guys to step up. Fortunately, the Tigers seem to be hoarding right handed pitching prospects, so we could see guys like Beau Burrows, Franklin Perez, and even Kyle Funkhouser try to break through onto the weak pitching staff. Rookies are fun to watch, but they don't always win games, so don't expect Detroit to finish much higher than .400.
Thursday, March 22, 2018
Season Preview: AL East
Division Crown Contenders: Yankees, Red Sox
Additional Wild Card Contenders: Blue Jays
Unlikely to Contend: Orioles, Rays
With two powerhouses at the top in the Yankees and Red Sox, the AL East is one of only two divisions (the other being the NL Central) without a clear favorite. In fact, the battle for the division crown might be the most fun one to watch this season, and whoever misses out will likely host the Wild Card Game. I'm putting my money on the Yankees winning out, as they are a young team that seemingly arrived a year early and will only be getting better with the arrivals of Giancarlo Stanton as well as the slew of MLB ready prospects hungry to make a difference. The bottom of the division is fairly middling, as the Blue Jays will probably break .500 and might contend for a second Wild Card spot but the Orioles and Rays look to be .400-.450 teams.
New York Yankees
Notable Additions: Giancarlo Stanton, Neil Walker, Brandon Drury
Notable Losses: Todd Frazier, Chase Headley, Starlin Castro, Michael Pineda, Jaime Garcia
Summary: Powerhouse team led by top-notch, homer happy offense and elite bullpen, should have few problems with a good-enough rotation.
The Yankees look like not only the favorites to win the AL East, but one of the best teams in baseball. Last year, they ran all the way to the ALCS with a team that wasn't supposed to be quite ready, and they've only gotten better. While Neil Walker for Starlin Castro, Brandon Drury for Chase Headley, and Greg Bird for Todd Frazier aren't eye popping substitutions, reigning NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton represents a huge upgrade over Jacoby Ellsbury in the outfield and with Aaron Judge will form the most fearsome lineup duo in baseball since Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. Add in the best catcher in baseball, Gary Sanchez, and that's a lineup not to be messed with. Prospects Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Tyler Wade, Clint Frazier, and Billy McKinney are also chomping at the bit for playing time, so if any starters see injuries, the Yanks will have the manpower to overcome. On the mound, the starting rotation is more or less average behind ace Luis Severino, but the bullpen might be the best ever constructed. Aroldis Chapman (3.22 ERA, 69/20 K/BB) leads a historic set of relief arms comprised of Dellin Betances (2.87, 100/44), David Robertson (1.84, 98/23), Chad Green (1.83, 103/17), Tommy Kahnle (2.59, 96/17), and Adam Warren (2.35, 54/15), among others. If starters like Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray, C.C. Sabathia, and Jordan Montgomery can avoid getting blown up, it's tough to see this team losing many games.
Boston Red Sox
Notable Additions: J.D. Martinez
Notable Losses: Addison Reed, Doug Fister, Chris Young
Summary: Another AL powerhouse, but with more question marks than the Yankees and a smaller margin for error.
The Red Sox had a fairly quiet offseason aside from adding the big bat of J.D. Martinez, sitting on a powerhouse team that was already ready to compete. However, while the Yankees more or less know what they're getting out of their team, the Red Sox have a lot of questions. Martinez adds power to an offense that also includes Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez, plus up-and-comers Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers, but much of the Sox' projection for the season is based on improvements from the latter two. Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley have been up-and-down as well, and Dustin Pedroia is going to miss a chunk of the season after offseason knee surgery. The catching situation is also a bit up in the air, as none of Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon, or Blake Swihart have ever appeared in 100 games in a season. On the mound, Chris Sale, David Price, and Rick Porcello form a solid top three, but injuries to Drew Pomeranz, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Steven Wright raise questions, at least for the beginning of the season. Craig Kimbrel is one of the top relievers in baseball, and Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg (once healthy) could make for a very good trio, so the bullpen will be a strong spot even with the loss of Addison Reed. Behind Sale, Martinez, Betts, Kimbrel, and co., Red Sox have the tools to keep pace with the Yankees; they just have a smaller margin for error.
Toronto Blue Jays
Notable Additions: Randal Grichuk, Curtis Granderson, Yangervis Solarte, Aledmys Diaz, Jaime Garcia, Seung-Hwan Oh, Tyler Clippard, John Axford
Notable Losses: Jose Bautista, Ryan Goins, Tom Koehler, Michael Saunders, Darwin Barney
Summary: Middling team with a lot of depth on the bench, an average rotation, and a deep, rebuilt bullpen. A healthy Troy Tulowitzki could do wonders if a few other things break right, but a Wild Card would be a long shot.
The Blue Jays had a busy offseason of smaller moves, adding no big names but adding depth all over the place. The once-shallow offense now added Yangervis Solarte, Aledmys Diaz, and Danny Espinosa to back up the oft-injured Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis in the infield while adding Randal Grichuk and Curtis Granderson to fill out the outfield. This team has a lot of depth on offense and has two big bats in Josh Donaldson and Justin Smoak, but to me, the problem with the offense is more that they lack lineup depth. It's great to have a bunch of fourth outfielder/utility man options, but when you don't have any real, impactful bats behind Donaldson and Smoak, that's a problem, and it will keep the Blue Jays' offense more average than elite. On the mound, they don't have a clear ace like Boston's Chris Sale or New York's Luis Severino, but they do have five capable major league starters in Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, and Jaime Garcia, so long as everyone stays healthy. Really, it's not a strength or a weakness. The bullpen may be their one true strength, as Roberto Osuna is one of the best relievers in baseball and they made a slew of additions through free agency, including Seung-Hwan Oh, Tyler Clippard, John Axford, Jake Petricka, Craig Breslow, and Al Albuquerque, and they already have guys like Ryan Tepera, Danny Barnes, and Aaron Loup in the mix. Overall, it's a pretty average team, but they could try to grab a second Wild Card spot if everything breaks just right.
Baltimore Orioles
Notable Additions: Alex Cobb, Andrew Cashner, Danny Valencia, Colby Rasmus
Notable Losses: Seth Smith, J.J. Hardy, Ubaldo Jimenez, Welington Castillo, Wade Miley, Jeremy Hellickson
Summary: A strong offense will have a lot of pressure putting up runs in support of what looks like a very mediocre pitching staff from top to bottom
The Orioles have some solid pieces to work with, but unfortunately the whole has usually been less than the sum of the parts for the Orioles in recent years and I don't see that changing this year. On offense, Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Chris Davis, and up-and-comers Jonathan Schoop, Trey Mancini, and even Austin Hays form a lineup that shouldn't be messed with, especially with Machado's down year last season looking like a fluke. This is a good hitting team with a surprising amount of depth on offense, but that's not where their downfall has lied in the past few seasons. Last year, their rotation posted the worst ERA in baseball at 5.70, and while they did sub Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner for Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley, it's still not pretty. Their is no true ace, and it would even be a stretch to say anybody in that rotation, including Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, and Chris Tillman, is even a #2 starter on most teams. There will be a lot of pressure on the offense when the rotation is filled with #3's, #4's, and #5's throughout, and that's before anybody gets hurt. The bullpen is not much better, especially with relief ace Zach Britton set to miss the start of the season, as Brad Brach and Darren O'Day combine with him to form a decent trio, but not one that rivals Chapman/Betances/Robertson in New York or Kimbrel/Smith/Thornburg in Boston. If things break right on the pitching staff and they're able to hold opponents down just enough to win slugfests, this team might have an outside shot at a Wild Card, but if the offense slumps at any point during the season, the whole team will slump no matter what the pitching staff does.
Tampa Bay Rays
Notable Additions: Carlos Gomez, C.J. Cron, Denard Span, Christian Arroyo, Daniel Hudson
Notable Losses: Evan Longoria, Steven Souza, Logan Morrison, Alex Cobb, Jake Odorizzi, Brad Boxberger, Tommy Hunter, Steve Cishek, Colby Rasmus, Lucas Duda
Summary: The Rays are in a transition year, with a weak lineup and a lack of impact arms aside from Chris Archer and Alex Colome, with the one spot to be excited about being the defense.
There is a lot of turnover pretty much everywhere on the roster, and 2018 will definitely be a transition season for the Rays. Evan Longoria, Steven Souza, and Logan Morrison, who were three of the best bats on the team, are gone, leaving Kevin Kiermaier, Wilson Ramos, and newcomers Carlos Gomez and C.J. Cron to pick up the slack. What this does mean, though, is that rookies like Christian Arroyo, Jake Bauers, Willy Adames, and Joey Wendle may get the opportunity to showcase what they can do. While the bats are light, the team does have some good defense, as Kiermaier is one of the best outfielders in the game and Mallex Smith, Adeiny Hechavarria, and Denard Span also carry solid gloves. On the mound, the Rays are looking to use a four man rotation with Alex Cobb and Jake Odorizzi gone, comprising of Chris Archer, Blake Snell, Jake Faria, and Nathan Eovaldi. The injury to Jose De Leon hurts, but they do have guys like Anthony Banda, Ryan Yarbrough, and Chih-Wei Hu, among others, who can step up if necessary. Aside from retaining Alex Colome, Dan Jennings, and Sergio Romo, the bullpen was decimated in the offseason, with Brad Boxberger, Tommy Hunter, Steve Cishek, Shawn Tolleson, and Xavier Cedeno packing up and heading elsewhere. There's a lot to be excited about on the farm, but don't expect the Rays to climb much higher than .400.
Additional Wild Card Contenders: Blue Jays
Unlikely to Contend: Orioles, Rays
With two powerhouses at the top in the Yankees and Red Sox, the AL East is one of only two divisions (the other being the NL Central) without a clear favorite. In fact, the battle for the division crown might be the most fun one to watch this season, and whoever misses out will likely host the Wild Card Game. I'm putting my money on the Yankees winning out, as they are a young team that seemingly arrived a year early and will only be getting better with the arrivals of Giancarlo Stanton as well as the slew of MLB ready prospects hungry to make a difference. The bottom of the division is fairly middling, as the Blue Jays will probably break .500 and might contend for a second Wild Card spot but the Orioles and Rays look to be .400-.450 teams.
New York Yankees
Notable Additions: Giancarlo Stanton, Neil Walker, Brandon Drury
Notable Losses: Todd Frazier, Chase Headley, Starlin Castro, Michael Pineda, Jaime Garcia
Summary: Powerhouse team led by top-notch, homer happy offense and elite bullpen, should have few problems with a good-enough rotation.
The Yankees look like not only the favorites to win the AL East, but one of the best teams in baseball. Last year, they ran all the way to the ALCS with a team that wasn't supposed to be quite ready, and they've only gotten better. While Neil Walker for Starlin Castro, Brandon Drury for Chase Headley, and Greg Bird for Todd Frazier aren't eye popping substitutions, reigning NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton represents a huge upgrade over Jacoby Ellsbury in the outfield and with Aaron Judge will form the most fearsome lineup duo in baseball since Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. Add in the best catcher in baseball, Gary Sanchez, and that's a lineup not to be messed with. Prospects Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Tyler Wade, Clint Frazier, and Billy McKinney are also chomping at the bit for playing time, so if any starters see injuries, the Yanks will have the manpower to overcome. On the mound, the starting rotation is more or less average behind ace Luis Severino, but the bullpen might be the best ever constructed. Aroldis Chapman (3.22 ERA, 69/20 K/BB) leads a historic set of relief arms comprised of Dellin Betances (2.87, 100/44), David Robertson (1.84, 98/23), Chad Green (1.83, 103/17), Tommy Kahnle (2.59, 96/17), and Adam Warren (2.35, 54/15), among others. If starters like Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray, C.C. Sabathia, and Jordan Montgomery can avoid getting blown up, it's tough to see this team losing many games.
Boston Red Sox
Notable Additions: J.D. Martinez
Notable Losses: Addison Reed, Doug Fister, Chris Young
Summary: Another AL powerhouse, but with more question marks than the Yankees and a smaller margin for error.
The Red Sox had a fairly quiet offseason aside from adding the big bat of J.D. Martinez, sitting on a powerhouse team that was already ready to compete. However, while the Yankees more or less know what they're getting out of their team, the Red Sox have a lot of questions. Martinez adds power to an offense that also includes Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez, plus up-and-comers Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers, but much of the Sox' projection for the season is based on improvements from the latter two. Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley have been up-and-down as well, and Dustin Pedroia is going to miss a chunk of the season after offseason knee surgery. The catching situation is also a bit up in the air, as none of Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon, or Blake Swihart have ever appeared in 100 games in a season. On the mound, Chris Sale, David Price, and Rick Porcello form a solid top three, but injuries to Drew Pomeranz, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Steven Wright raise questions, at least for the beginning of the season. Craig Kimbrel is one of the top relievers in baseball, and Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg (once healthy) could make for a very good trio, so the bullpen will be a strong spot even with the loss of Addison Reed. Behind Sale, Martinez, Betts, Kimbrel, and co., Red Sox have the tools to keep pace with the Yankees; they just have a smaller margin for error.
Toronto Blue Jays
Notable Additions: Randal Grichuk, Curtis Granderson, Yangervis Solarte, Aledmys Diaz, Jaime Garcia, Seung-Hwan Oh, Tyler Clippard, John Axford
Notable Losses: Jose Bautista, Ryan Goins, Tom Koehler, Michael Saunders, Darwin Barney
Summary: Middling team with a lot of depth on the bench, an average rotation, and a deep, rebuilt bullpen. A healthy Troy Tulowitzki could do wonders if a few other things break right, but a Wild Card would be a long shot.
The Blue Jays had a busy offseason of smaller moves, adding no big names but adding depth all over the place. The once-shallow offense now added Yangervis Solarte, Aledmys Diaz, and Danny Espinosa to back up the oft-injured Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis in the infield while adding Randal Grichuk and Curtis Granderson to fill out the outfield. This team has a lot of depth on offense and has two big bats in Josh Donaldson and Justin Smoak, but to me, the problem with the offense is more that they lack lineup depth. It's great to have a bunch of fourth outfielder/utility man options, but when you don't have any real, impactful bats behind Donaldson and Smoak, that's a problem, and it will keep the Blue Jays' offense more average than elite. On the mound, they don't have a clear ace like Boston's Chris Sale or New York's Luis Severino, but they do have five capable major league starters in Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, and Jaime Garcia, so long as everyone stays healthy. Really, it's not a strength or a weakness. The bullpen may be their one true strength, as Roberto Osuna is one of the best relievers in baseball and they made a slew of additions through free agency, including Seung-Hwan Oh, Tyler Clippard, John Axford, Jake Petricka, Craig Breslow, and Al Albuquerque, and they already have guys like Ryan Tepera, Danny Barnes, and Aaron Loup in the mix. Overall, it's a pretty average team, but they could try to grab a second Wild Card spot if everything breaks just right.
Baltimore Orioles
Notable Additions: Alex Cobb, Andrew Cashner, Danny Valencia, Colby Rasmus
Notable Losses: Seth Smith, J.J. Hardy, Ubaldo Jimenez, Welington Castillo, Wade Miley, Jeremy Hellickson
Summary: A strong offense will have a lot of pressure putting up runs in support of what looks like a very mediocre pitching staff from top to bottom
The Orioles have some solid pieces to work with, but unfortunately the whole has usually been less than the sum of the parts for the Orioles in recent years and I don't see that changing this year. On offense, Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Chris Davis, and up-and-comers Jonathan Schoop, Trey Mancini, and even Austin Hays form a lineup that shouldn't be messed with, especially with Machado's down year last season looking like a fluke. This is a good hitting team with a surprising amount of depth on offense, but that's not where their downfall has lied in the past few seasons. Last year, their rotation posted the worst ERA in baseball at 5.70, and while they did sub Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner for Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley, it's still not pretty. Their is no true ace, and it would even be a stretch to say anybody in that rotation, including Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, and Chris Tillman, is even a #2 starter on most teams. There will be a lot of pressure on the offense when the rotation is filled with #3's, #4's, and #5's throughout, and that's before anybody gets hurt. The bullpen is not much better, especially with relief ace Zach Britton set to miss the start of the season, as Brad Brach and Darren O'Day combine with him to form a decent trio, but not one that rivals Chapman/Betances/Robertson in New York or Kimbrel/Smith/Thornburg in Boston. If things break right on the pitching staff and they're able to hold opponents down just enough to win slugfests, this team might have an outside shot at a Wild Card, but if the offense slumps at any point during the season, the whole team will slump no matter what the pitching staff does.
Tampa Bay Rays
Notable Additions: Carlos Gomez, C.J. Cron, Denard Span, Christian Arroyo, Daniel Hudson
Notable Losses: Evan Longoria, Steven Souza, Logan Morrison, Alex Cobb, Jake Odorizzi, Brad Boxberger, Tommy Hunter, Steve Cishek, Colby Rasmus, Lucas Duda
Summary: The Rays are in a transition year, with a weak lineup and a lack of impact arms aside from Chris Archer and Alex Colome, with the one spot to be excited about being the defense.
There is a lot of turnover pretty much everywhere on the roster, and 2018 will definitely be a transition season for the Rays. Evan Longoria, Steven Souza, and Logan Morrison, who were three of the best bats on the team, are gone, leaving Kevin Kiermaier, Wilson Ramos, and newcomers Carlos Gomez and C.J. Cron to pick up the slack. What this does mean, though, is that rookies like Christian Arroyo, Jake Bauers, Willy Adames, and Joey Wendle may get the opportunity to showcase what they can do. While the bats are light, the team does have some good defense, as Kiermaier is one of the best outfielders in the game and Mallex Smith, Adeiny Hechavarria, and Denard Span also carry solid gloves. On the mound, the Rays are looking to use a four man rotation with Alex Cobb and Jake Odorizzi gone, comprising of Chris Archer, Blake Snell, Jake Faria, and Nathan Eovaldi. The injury to Jose De Leon hurts, but they do have guys like Anthony Banda, Ryan Yarbrough, and Chih-Wei Hu, among others, who can step up if necessary. Aside from retaining Alex Colome, Dan Jennings, and Sergio Romo, the bullpen was decimated in the offseason, with Brad Boxberger, Tommy Hunter, Steve Cishek, Shawn Tolleson, and Xavier Cedeno packing up and heading elsewhere. There's a lot to be excited about on the farm, but don't expect the Rays to climb much higher than .400.
Wednesday, March 21, 2018
Orioles Add Alex Cobb to Rotation
Alex Cobb:12-10, 3.66 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 128/44 K/BB, 179.1 IP
Four years, $57 million, full no-trade clause for 2018 and partial no-trade clause after
After signing Andrew Cashner a month ago, the Orioles again added to their rotation with righty Alex Cobb, signing him to a four year deal worth $57 million. As I wrote with Cashner, the Orioles rotation last season was downright awful, but swapping Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley for the incoming Cashner and Cobb is certainly an upgrade. It's not enough to give the Orioles even an average rotation, but it's something. Cobb's deal is actually close to market value, unlike those written below in the email. From 2013-2014, Cobb was one of the better pitchers in baseball, going 21-12 with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 49 starts for the Rays, but he missed all of 2015 and was limited to five starts in 2016 before bouncing back in 2017. This past year, he wasn't quite as good as he was in 2013-2014, but a 3.66 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over a career high 29 starts were still valuable and enough to make him a reliable mid-rotation arm. His 17.3% strikeout rate was down from 22.5% from 2013-2014. However, his 5.9% walk rate was the lowest of his career and much lower than the 7.3% rate from 2013-2014, showing that Cobb is aware of where he stands now as a pitcher post-injury and has made the necessary adjustments. That's always a good sign. For his career, the Vero Beach, Florida native is 48-35 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 115 starts, all with the Rays.
Four years, $57 million, full no-trade clause for 2018 and partial no-trade clause after
After signing Andrew Cashner a month ago, the Orioles again added to their rotation with righty Alex Cobb, signing him to a four year deal worth $57 million. As I wrote with Cashner, the Orioles rotation last season was downright awful, but swapping Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley for the incoming Cashner and Cobb is certainly an upgrade. It's not enough to give the Orioles even an average rotation, but it's something. Cobb's deal is actually close to market value, unlike those written below in the email. From 2013-2014, Cobb was one of the better pitchers in baseball, going 21-12 with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 49 starts for the Rays, but he missed all of 2015 and was limited to five starts in 2016 before bouncing back in 2017. This past year, he wasn't quite as good as he was in 2013-2014, but a 3.66 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over a career high 29 starts were still valuable and enough to make him a reliable mid-rotation arm. His 17.3% strikeout rate was down from 22.5% from 2013-2014. However, his 5.9% walk rate was the lowest of his career and much lower than the 7.3% rate from 2013-2014, showing that Cobb is aware of where he stands now as a pitcher post-injury and has made the necessary adjustments. That's always a good sign. For his career, the Vero Beach, Florida native is 48-35 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 115 starts, all with the Rays.
Tuesday, March 20, 2018
Yankees Add Neil Walker to Infield Picture
Neil Walker: 14 HR, .265/.362/.439, 0 SB, 114 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR
One year, $4 million, up to $500,000 in plate appearance-related incentives
The Yankees continued adding to their infield, bringing in a strong bat in Neil Walker for just $4 million, or up to $4.5 million if he can crack 500 plate appearances. Walker's signing means that he'll likely replace Starlin Castro as the starting second baseman, with the newly acquired Brandon Drury sliding over to third base and rookies Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar beginning the season at AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre. However, another rookie, Tyler Wade, could challenge Walker for a starting spot. Walker is a very competent hitter, coming off a season in which he slashed .265/.362/.439 with 14 home runs in 111 games, good for a 114 wRC+ and showing both on-base ability and power. A year prior, in 2016, he had a career year, slashing .282/.347/.476 with 23 home runs, enough for a 122 wRC+ and a career high 3.7 fWAR. His power should play up in Yankee Stadium, plus he should see more pitches to hit with guys like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez in the lineup around him, so the 32 year old should have another good year this year. For his career, the Pittsburgh area native has 130 home runs, a .272/.341/.437 slash line, 29 stolen bases, and 21.1 fWAR over 1060 games.
One year, $4 million, up to $500,000 in plate appearance-related incentives
The Yankees continued adding to their infield, bringing in a strong bat in Neil Walker for just $4 million, or up to $4.5 million if he can crack 500 plate appearances. Walker's signing means that he'll likely replace Starlin Castro as the starting second baseman, with the newly acquired Brandon Drury sliding over to third base and rookies Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar beginning the season at AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre. However, another rookie, Tyler Wade, could challenge Walker for a starting spot. Walker is a very competent hitter, coming off a season in which he slashed .265/.362/.439 with 14 home runs in 111 games, good for a 114 wRC+ and showing both on-base ability and power. A year prior, in 2016, he had a career year, slashing .282/.347/.476 with 23 home runs, enough for a 122 wRC+ and a career high 3.7 fWAR. His power should play up in Yankee Stadium, plus he should see more pitches to hit with guys like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez in the lineup around him, so the 32 year old should have another good year this year. For his career, the Pittsburgh area native has 130 home runs, a .272/.341/.437 slash line, 29 stolen bases, and 21.1 fWAR over 1060 games.
Twins Add Lance Lynn in Latest Move
Lance Lynn: 11-8, 3.43 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 153/78 K/BB, 186.1 IP
One year, $12 million
Unlike Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn did not get the kind of contract he was looking for, signing for just $12 million on a one year deal. It can run up to $13 million if he reaches 170 innings this season and $14 million if he reaches 180 innings, but it is still far short of the $50 million+ deal he was expected to receive. The good news about a one year deal for Lynn is that he'll be a free agent next season in what has to be a better market. Lynn joins a new-look Twins team that has already added Jake Odorizzi to the rotation, Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, and Zach Duke to the bullpen, and Logan Morrison to the lineup. The Twins' rotation is looking good for the season, with Lynn joining Odorizzi, Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios, and Kyle Gibson, with Phil Hughes and rookie Stephen Gonsalves acting as insurance. Lynn was a quietly above-average starter for the Cardinals from 2012-2015, then missed 2016 with Tommy John surgery, but picked right back up where he left off in 2017 by posting a 3.43 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 153/78 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 starts. He's a bit inconsistent, and the increased walk rate is a bit troubling (career high 10.1% in 2017) as well as the diminished strikeout rate (career low 19.7%). Lynn should be a solid #4, but don't get ahead of yourself in thinking that he could turn the Twins rotation from a good one to a great one. For his career, the Indiana native and former Ole Miss Rebel is 72-47 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 183 games (161 starts), all with the Cardinals.
One year, $12 million
Unlike Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn did not get the kind of contract he was looking for, signing for just $12 million on a one year deal. It can run up to $13 million if he reaches 170 innings this season and $14 million if he reaches 180 innings, but it is still far short of the $50 million+ deal he was expected to receive. The good news about a one year deal for Lynn is that he'll be a free agent next season in what has to be a better market. Lynn joins a new-look Twins team that has already added Jake Odorizzi to the rotation, Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, and Zach Duke to the bullpen, and Logan Morrison to the lineup. The Twins' rotation is looking good for the season, with Lynn joining Odorizzi, Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios, and Kyle Gibson, with Phil Hughes and rookie Stephen Gonsalves acting as insurance. Lynn was a quietly above-average starter for the Cardinals from 2012-2015, then missed 2016 with Tommy John surgery, but picked right back up where he left off in 2017 by posting a 3.43 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 153/78 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 starts. He's a bit inconsistent, and the increased walk rate is a bit troubling (career high 10.1% in 2017) as well as the diminished strikeout rate (career low 19.7%). Lynn should be a solid #4, but don't get ahead of yourself in thinking that he could turn the Twins rotation from a good one to a great one. For his career, the Indiana native and former Ole Miss Rebel is 72-47 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 183 games (161 starts), all with the Cardinals.
Saturday, March 17, 2018
Phillies Sign Jake Arrieta
Jake Arrieta: 14-10, 3.53 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 163/55 K/BB, 168.1 IP
Three years, $75 million. Opt-out after two years, $55 million, team option for two years, $40 million (or more based on Cy Young related escalators) that cancels opt-out
Many of the players who have signed in March have gotten well below-market deals, unfortunately, However, that is not the case for Jake Arrieta, who signed for three years and $75 million to go pitch in Philadelphia. He has an opt out after two years and $55 million, but the Phillies can "void" the opt out by "extending" him by two years and $40 million, meaning the contract could be as large as a five year, $115 million deal. The guarantee within the contract is probably not as long as he would have liked, but at this point he made out pretty well considering the circumstances of this awful offseason. Arrieta is no longer the ace he was in 2015, as his ERA has jumped from 1.77 to 3.10 to 3.53 in the past three seasons, but he's still a solid #2 arm that can really help a Phillies team that is trending in the right direction. $25 million per season actually strikes me as a bit much for Arrieta (well actually $30 million, then $25 million, then $20 million), but it does make up for the lack of longevity in the deal as well as being able to bring him to a team that's not contending...yet. Having also added Carlos Santana on a three year deal this offseason, I don't see Philadelphia winning a Wild Card in 2018, but they could compete by 2019 with that young core growing up. Arrieta himself still has some left in the tank, having put up a 3.53 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 30 starts last year, and he'll only be 32, 33, and 34 for the guaranteed portion of this contract, which isn't too bad. However, do expect his ERA to jump a little, due in part to natural decline but also due to the Phillies' more hitter-friendly home park as well as their inferior defense when compared to that of the Cubs. For his career, the former TCU Horned Frog is 88-56 with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 197 games (191 starts); however, since he was traded to the Cubs in 2013, he is 68-31 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 128 starts.
Three years, $75 million. Opt-out after two years, $55 million, team option for two years, $40 million (or more based on Cy Young related escalators) that cancels opt-out
Many of the players who have signed in March have gotten well below-market deals, unfortunately, However, that is not the case for Jake Arrieta, who signed for three years and $75 million to go pitch in Philadelphia. He has an opt out after two years and $55 million, but the Phillies can "void" the opt out by "extending" him by two years and $40 million, meaning the contract could be as large as a five year, $115 million deal. The guarantee within the contract is probably not as long as he would have liked, but at this point he made out pretty well considering the circumstances of this awful offseason. Arrieta is no longer the ace he was in 2015, as his ERA has jumped from 1.77 to 3.10 to 3.53 in the past three seasons, but he's still a solid #2 arm that can really help a Phillies team that is trending in the right direction. $25 million per season actually strikes me as a bit much for Arrieta (well actually $30 million, then $25 million, then $20 million), but it does make up for the lack of longevity in the deal as well as being able to bring him to a team that's not contending...yet. Having also added Carlos Santana on a three year deal this offseason, I don't see Philadelphia winning a Wild Card in 2018, but they could compete by 2019 with that young core growing up. Arrieta himself still has some left in the tank, having put up a 3.53 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 30 starts last year, and he'll only be 32, 33, and 34 for the guaranteed portion of this contract, which isn't too bad. However, do expect his ERA to jump a little, due in part to natural decline but also due to the Phillies' more hitter-friendly home park as well as their inferior defense when compared to that of the Cubs. For his career, the former TCU Horned Frog is 88-56 with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 197 games (191 starts); however, since he was traded to the Cubs in 2013, he is 68-31 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 128 starts.
Saturday, March 10, 2018
Twins Add Logan Morrison to Lineup
Logan Morrison: 38 HR, .246/.353/.516, 2 SB, 130 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR
One year, $6.5 million
The Minnesota Twins are looking like sneaky contenders for next season, at least for the AL Wild Card, and they added Logan Morrison to a lineup that is a little deeper than you might expect. Behind big boppers Miguel Sano and Brian Dozier, Morrison will join Joe Mauer, the emerging Byron Buxton, and Eddie Rosario, among others. Morrison is limited defensively and will likely split time at first base and DH with Mauer, but his big, and the Twins hope he can repeat his career year from last year. In 149 games, Morrison slashed .246/.353/.516 with 38 home runs, good for a 130 wRC+ on the strength of a 13.5% walk rate, so his low, .246 batting average was hardly an issue. If he can keep up that high walk rate and even just approach his power from last season, his bat will be worth that $6.5 million. However, there is reason for pause because as recently as 2016, Morrison slashed .238/.319/.414 with 14 home runs and a 100 wRC+ over 107 games, and his numbers from 2015 were even worse. I do think Morrison's power breakout was for real, though, because his ground ball rate dropped dramatically from 44.7% in 2015 and 44.2% in 2016 to just 33.3% in 2017, as he focused more on lifting the ball and driving it over the fence. Look for Morrison to chase 30 home runs again in 2018. For his career, the Kansas City native has 122 home runs, a .245/.330/.433 slash line, and 5.6 fWAR over 864 games.
One year, $6.5 million
The Minnesota Twins are looking like sneaky contenders for next season, at least for the AL Wild Card, and they added Logan Morrison to a lineup that is a little deeper than you might expect. Behind big boppers Miguel Sano and Brian Dozier, Morrison will join Joe Mauer, the emerging Byron Buxton, and Eddie Rosario, among others. Morrison is limited defensively and will likely split time at first base and DH with Mauer, but his big, and the Twins hope he can repeat his career year from last year. In 149 games, Morrison slashed .246/.353/.516 with 38 home runs, good for a 130 wRC+ on the strength of a 13.5% walk rate, so his low, .246 batting average was hardly an issue. If he can keep up that high walk rate and even just approach his power from last season, his bat will be worth that $6.5 million. However, there is reason for pause because as recently as 2016, Morrison slashed .238/.319/.414 with 14 home runs and a 100 wRC+ over 107 games, and his numbers from 2015 were even worse. I do think Morrison's power breakout was for real, though, because his ground ball rate dropped dramatically from 44.7% in 2015 and 44.2% in 2016 to just 33.3% in 2017, as he focused more on lifting the ball and driving it over the fence. Look for Morrison to chase 30 home runs again in 2018. For his career, the Kansas City native has 122 home runs, a .245/.330/.433 slash line, and 5.6 fWAR over 864 games.
Thursday, March 8, 2018
Royals Bring Back Moustakas on One Year Deal
Mike Moustakas: 38 HR, .272/.314/.521, 114 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR
One year, $6.5 million, $15 million mutual option for 2019, up to $2.2 million in incentives
In this terrible free agent market, Mike Moustakas signed with the Royals for well below market value, grabbing just $6.5 million guaranteed months after finishing up a 38 homer season. That's a far cry from the one year, $17.4 million qualifying offer he turned down at the beginning of the offseason, with many expecting him to earn over $50 million on the open market. Now, his deal is a little better for him than it sounds; he'll earn $5.5 million in 2018, then he and the Royal will have a $15 million mutual option for 2019 with a $1 million buyout, and with $2.2 million available in incentives, the deal could be worth as much as $22.7 million over two seasons. Also, because he doesn't turn 30 until September, he'll be in a good position next offseason to sign a longer contract should his option not go through. From the Royals' side, this deal makes a lot of sense. $6.5 million is not much to pay for a power bat, and with Lucas Duda replacing Eric Hosmer and Jon Jay replacing Lorenzo Cain, they're actually not that much worse than they were last year. They likely won't contend, but with Moustakas, Duda, Jay, Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler, and Salvador Perez in that lineup, they'll at least be interesting for their fans to watch while they begin to rebuild. Moose is coming off a big 2017 season in which he slashed .272/.314/.521 with 38 home runs over 148 games, worth a solid 114 wRC+ and 2.2 fWAR. He hits for power and average, but his 5.7% walk rate did keep his good season from being a great season, and he has never walked at more than an 8% rate during his career. For his career, the 29 year old has 119 home runs, a .251/.305/.425 slash line, and 12.1 fWAR over 836 games, all with the Royals.
One year, $6.5 million, $15 million mutual option for 2019, up to $2.2 million in incentives
In this terrible free agent market, Mike Moustakas signed with the Royals for well below market value, grabbing just $6.5 million guaranteed months after finishing up a 38 homer season. That's a far cry from the one year, $17.4 million qualifying offer he turned down at the beginning of the offseason, with many expecting him to earn over $50 million on the open market. Now, his deal is a little better for him than it sounds; he'll earn $5.5 million in 2018, then he and the Royal will have a $15 million mutual option for 2019 with a $1 million buyout, and with $2.2 million available in incentives, the deal could be worth as much as $22.7 million over two seasons. Also, because he doesn't turn 30 until September, he'll be in a good position next offseason to sign a longer contract should his option not go through. From the Royals' side, this deal makes a lot of sense. $6.5 million is not much to pay for a power bat, and with Lucas Duda replacing Eric Hosmer and Jon Jay replacing Lorenzo Cain, they're actually not that much worse than they were last year. They likely won't contend, but with Moustakas, Duda, Jay, Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler, and Salvador Perez in that lineup, they'll at least be interesting for their fans to watch while they begin to rebuild. Moose is coming off a big 2017 season in which he slashed .272/.314/.521 with 38 home runs over 148 games, worth a solid 114 wRC+ and 2.2 fWAR. He hits for power and average, but his 5.7% walk rate did keep his good season from being a great season, and he has never walked at more than an 8% rate during his career. For his career, the 29 year old has 119 home runs, a .251/.305/.425 slash line, and 12.1 fWAR over 836 games, all with the Royals.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)