Sunday, March 25, 2018

Season Preview: AL West

Division Crown Contenders: Astros
Additional Wild Card Contenders: Angels, Mariners
Unlikely to Contend: Athletics, Rangers

The division race itself won't be too fun to watch, as the Astros are fielding a super team and in all likelihood will have the race all but won by the trade deadline. However, the Angels and Mariners both have valid Wild Card hopes, and this division could have four teams finish above .500 if either the A's or Rangers get hot. The Angels in particular have improved significantly, and at this point have a very good shot at a Wild Card. The Mariners aren't particularly special, but they're good enough, especially behind that deep offense, and there will be a lot of scraping and clawing in the middle of the division. The A's are improved and the Rangers have taken a step back, so it's tough to tell who will end up in the cellar. Look forward to some fun races, even if the Astros are miles ahead of everyone else.

Houston Astros
Notable Additions: Gerrit Cole, Joe Smith, Hector Rondon
Notable Losses: Carlos Beltran, Cameron Maybin, Joe Musgrove, Mike Fiers, Luke Gregerson, Michael Feliz, Tyler Clippard, Francisco Liriano
Summary: One of the best offenses ever built? Check. Dominant starting rotation one through five with backup plans? Check. Good bullpen? Check. Good luck beating the Astros this year.

It may look like the Astros lost a lot of players, but compared to the quality of the players they picked up, this team is definitely improved, which is a scary thought considering they won the World Series last season. There really are no holes on this roster; with baseball's best offense (sorry Yankees) and arguably baseball's best rotation, as well as a solid bullpen. Let's start with the offense: between Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer, any of whom could win the AL MVP Award this year, as well as Alex Bregman, Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis, Brian McCann, and Yuli Gurriel, this team can hurt you one through nine in the lineup. Even on the bench, with Jake Marisnick, J.D. Davis, Tyler White, and Derek Fisher, you're going to have a tough time getting outs at any point in the game. As fun as the Aaron Judge/Giancarlo Stanton/Gary Sanchez trio will be to watch in New York, the Altuve/Correa/Springer trio in Houston is nearly as good, and they provide much more defensive value to boot. On the mound, Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Lance McCullers, and Charlie Morton fill out a very good rotation, so even if the offense goes quiet for a day, they'll still be in a position to win. Behind them, Brad Peacock and Collin McHugh could easily step in for extended periods of time in the case of injury. Ken Giles, Chris Devenski, and Will Harris form one of the better bullpen trios in the game, and Hector Rondon and Joe Smith are very nice additions in their own right. Devenski in particular is one of the most valuable relievers in the game, with the ability to go multiple innings at an extremely high level of effectiveness. This roster is not only well rounded but elite in all regards, basically the Mike Trout of baseball teams. It would be a major upset to see them fall anywhere short of the ALCS.

Los Angeles Angels
Notable Additions: Shohei Ohtani, Zack Cozart, Ian Kinsler, Rene Rivera, Chris Young, Chris Carter
Notable Losses: Huston Street, Yusmeiro Petit, Ricky Nolasco, Jesse Chavez, Bud Norris, C.J. Cron, Brandon Phillips, Yunel Escobar, Ben Revere
Summary: High upside team with Mike Trout/Shohei Ohtani looking to be one of the most exciting pairs of teammates, rebuilt offense with strong defense but questionable pitching staff with a ton of talent and not much depth or certainty

The Angels struck gold by adding two way star Shohei Ohtani, and that set off an offseason in which they shored up the whole offense to get ready for at least a Wild Card run. They won't catch the Astros, but the Angels are as good on paper as the Red Sox and Twins and could make a lot of noise if they stay healthy. The offense, which was shallow last season, added Ohtani at DH, Ian Kinsler at second base, Zack Cozart at third, and Chris Carter, Chris Young, and Rene Rivera to the bench while only losing C.J. Cron, Brandon Phillips, Yunel Escobar, and Ben Revere. In addition to the newcomers, it goes without saying that Mike Trout is the best player in the game, and Justin Upton, Kole Calhoun, and Andrelton Simmons have good bats as well. Interestingly, defense will be a strong suit for the team, with Simmons, Trout, Cozart, and Martin Maldonado carrying excellent gloves, and Ian Kinsler showing the ability to flash the leather as well. The rotation, however, could perform at any number of levels. The talent is high, but of the six possible starters, only one topped 90 innings last season and none topped 150 innings. Ace Garrett Richards has been as dominant as anybody on a per-inning basis, but has been limited to twelve starts over the past two seasons. Andrew Heaney has made six in the same span. Tyler Skaggs reached the majors in 2012 but has never made more than 18 starts in a season. Matt Shoemaker missed half of last season. Of course, Ohtani is a complete wild card, and even he missed much of the season in Japan. Only J.C. Ramirez (147.1 innings) actually pitched what could be called a full season. There's lots of talent there, especially in Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, and Ohtani, but absolutely nothing is guaranteed with any of those guys. Lastly, the bullpen is a little bit of a jumble, as it lost many key pieces from 2017, with Blake Parker, Keynan Middleton, and Cam Bedrosian left to form the heart, definitely making the bullpen a weak spot. Overall, the Angels have a lot of upside, especially with Ohtani, but the pitching staff has a lot of holes that could become glaring if a few injuries occur in the starting rotation.

Seattle Mariners
Notable Additions: Ichiro Suzuki, Dee Gordon, Ryon Healy, Juan Nicasio
Notable Losses: Yonder Alonso, Danny Valencia, Jarrod Dyson, Yovani Gallardo, Emilio Pagan
Summary: Unlike most Mariners teams, this one will get by with a strong, balanced offense while hoping a mediocre pitching staff can hold opponents down just enough

The Mariners are kind of stuck in that not really competing but not rebuilding area, which will see them field a team in the .500 range but not one quite good enough to make a deep postseason run. It was a relatively quiet offseason by Jerry DiPoto standards, as he made just two notable trades and signed a couple of free agents. The offense actually does look about as balanced as it has ever been, with Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano forming the heart and Jean Segura, Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger, Mike Zunino, newcomers Dee Gordon and Ryon Healy, and returnee Ichiro Suzuki playing support. It's not elite, but one through nine (OK maybe one through eight, but we love Ichiro) can hurt you, especially if Haniger can build on last year's breakout. This has not been typical of Mariners teams in the past. The rotation's success may hinge around face of the franchise Felix Hernandez, who we all remember as one of the best pitchers in baseball from 2009-2014 but who has seen his ERA rise from 2.14 in 2014 to 3.53 in 2015, 3.82 in 2016, and 4.36 in 2017. Since he made his debut less than four months after his 19th birthday, it's easy to forget that he's still doesn't turn 32 until April, so hopefully he can turn it around. Behind him, James Paxton was quietly one of the better arms in the game last year and could even improve further this season, and Mike Leake is a reliable veteran. However, Ariel Miranda, Marco Gonzales, and Erasmo Ramirez are all wild cards, making the rotation a weak spot overall. Edwin Diaz, Juan Nicasio, and Nick Vincent headline what looks more or less like an average bullpen, especially with David Phelps set to miss the season.

Oakland Athletics
Notable Additions: Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Buchter, Emilio Pagan, Yusmeiro Petit, Brett Anderson
Notable Losses: Ryon Healy, Jesse Hahn, John Axford, Chris Carter
Summary: Not quite good enough to contend yet, but the A's got better and have a deep roster filled with guys looking to make impressions, so don't expect them to roll over and play .400 ball

Like everybody above them in this division, the A's got better this offseason, and while they likely won't contend, in the words of MLB.com writer Mike Petriello, they'll be "interesting." Khris Davis, Matt Olson, Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, and Marcus Semien are back to lead an almost-average offense (and I mean that as a compliment, considering where they were last year), and Stephen Piscotty came over from the Cardinals to add more support. Additionally, prospects like Franklin Barreto, Renato Nunez, and Dustin Fowler look ready to step up, just as Olson and Matt Chapman did last season. Think of them as the White Sox of the AL Central. On the mound, there is no standout arm, but 27 year old Kendall Graveman is the elder statesman in the rotation as everybody comes into the season with something to prove. Losing Jharel Cotton to Tommy John surgery was big, but behind Graveman, they still have Sean Manaea, Daniel Mengden, Andrew Triggs, and Daniel Gossett, some of whom were quietly pretty good last season. Depending on how he pitches, top prospect A.J. Puk could be up to contribute as well later in the season. The bullpen has seen almost a complete makeover; the only relievers on both the 2016 and the 2018 teams are Liam Hendricks, Ryan Dull, and Danny Coulombe. Push it back to the start of the 2015 season, and you have 100% turnover. Blake Treinen, Ryan Buchter, and Emilio Pagan look to take the lead, with Chris Hatcher, Yusmeiro Petit, and Santiago Casilla looking to play big roles as well. What this team lacks in star power it makes up for in depth; they won't contend, but they'll be interesting.

Texas Rangers
Notable Additions: Mike Minor, Doug Fister, Jesse Chavez, Tim Lincecum
Notable Losses: Andrew Cashner, Carlos Gomez, Mike Napoli, Miguel Gonzalez, Tyson Ross
Summary: Team on the downswing, lacking depth on both offense and in the rotation, but a deep bullpen and a few nice pieces around the roster should be enough to at least make them relevant.

The Rangers were the only team in the AL West to get worse this offseason, and while they still have a pretty good team, they've probably fallen behind everybody else in the division. There is no centerpiece on offense, though with veteran Adrian Beltre and go-big-or-go-home Joey Gallo making up the top two bats, and Nomar Mazara, Elvis Andrus, and Shin-Soo Choo also looking to contribute on a high level, they do have something to work with. It's a pretty shallow offense overall, not typical for the Rangers, though it will be interesting to see how Ryan Rua performs with regular playing time. The rotation isn't much better, led by Cole Hamels, Matt Moore, Doug Fister, Martin Perez, and Mike Minor, guys who all have had success in the past but who all have questions heading into 2018 (even Hamels posted an ERA north of 4.00 last season). The bullpen does look like the lone strong spot for this team, because even without a true relief ace, the combination of Alex Claudio, Matt Bush, Jake Diekman, and Keone Kela looks like a good base for a very deep collection of arms. If Tim Lincecum takes well to a transition to the bullpen, it could be even better. Between Beltre, Gallo, Hamels, and the bullpen, the Rangers should have just enough going for them to hang around, but not enough to make much noise.

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