2021 MLB Draft Review: Detroit Tigers

Full list of draftees

The Tigers injected a ton of mostly pitching talent this year, taking eight arms in their first ten picks. They came away with the top high school pitcher in the class as well as by some accounts the second best college pitcher in the class (fifth on my board). While the previous wave of Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Alex Faedo, Beau Burrows, Tarik Skubal, and Kyle Funkhouser has been fairly hit and miss so far, Detroit is hoping to lay the groundwork for the next wave of pitching with names like Jackson Jobe, Ty Madden, and Dylan Smith, then possibly catch some lightning in a bottle with a more under the radar guy like Tyler Mattison, Tanner Kohlhepp, or Jordan Marks. While the system has no shortage of corner bats, Izaac Pacheco adds another one with a huge ceiling as well. It's kind of funny to write because I'm not the world's biggest Ty Madden fan, but getting him at #32 is still an absolute steal no matter where you land on him, so that's easily my favorite pick of this draft class for them. One last interesting trend I noticed was that their second, third, and fourth picks all grew up in the Houston area.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-3: RHP Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS [OK]. My rank: #8.
Given that all four top prep shortstops were still on the board, many Tigers fans were unhappy with this pick and while I wouldn't have taken Jackson Jobe in this situation either, there's no denying that the Tigers got their man and that Jobe is an absolute stud. He entered the spring as arguably the second best pitching prospect in the high school class behind Andrew Painter, but the combination of a slow start for Painter and a hot one from Jobe flipped that convincingly and by July, he was the top prep arm by most accounts. Jobe is relatively new to pitching and earned serious draft buzz as a shortstop, but has rapidly and continually improved since stepping on the mound. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 97-98, all without a ton of effort. His slider is his best pitch, coming in with ridiculous spin rates that cause it to suddenly disappear at the last second, combining close to ideal power and shape and flashing plus-plus. Jobe also spins a sharp, above average curveball that is fully distinct from his slider, and he also throws one of the better changeups in the prep class. Everything plays up because he fills up the strike zone consistently, with above average control and average command that should only get better with more experience. The 6'2" righty is a great athlete that repeats his delivery well and holds his stuff deep into games, and he still has some projection remaining. Combining the power, deep arsenal, athleticism, and feel for pitching in general, there really isn't much to dislike here, with the only knock on Jobe (aside from his demographic) perhaps being his age, as he turned 19 a few weeks after the draft. That's really not a big issue given how new he is to pitching and how quickly he's taken to it. Prep right handers are very, very risky, but the Oklahoma City native has true top of the rotation potential and the Tigers are all in. Committed to Ole Miss, he instead signed for $6.9 million, which was $321,200 below slot value but still marked the second largest bonus in the class behind only Jack Leiter.

CBA-32: RHP Ty Madden, Texas. My rank: #18.
By ranking Ty Madden 18th, I was actually one of the low guys on him, as he came in at #9 at MLB Pipeline, #12 at Baseball America, and #13 at Prospects Live. He had one of the most complete profiles in the college pitching class and was largely expected to be off the board somewhere in the 8-15 range, and I don't think the Tigers even dreamed he'd be available at pick 32. Even if I was a bit lower than most on his outlook pre-draft, there's no denying that Detroit got incredible value here, especially given he didn't require a massive above slot bonus. Madden largely met the sky-high expectations set on him coming into the season, posting a 2.45 ERA and a 137/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.2 innings perhaps highlighted by a complete game, two hit shutout of Houston while striking out fourteen on March 5th. He was hit just a touch harder in Big 12 conference play (3.71 ERA, 60/20 K/BB in 53.1 IP), but he was still largely consistent and went at least six innings in sixteen of his eighteen starts and only allowed more than two earned runs on four occasions. An absolute workhorse, he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has run it up to 99, holding that velocity deep into games. Madden adds a slider and a changeup which switch back and forth as to which is better, with the slider looking plus on some days with late bite and the changeup looking above average on others. The 6'3" righty fills up the strike zone with both and has one of the best combinations of stuff and command in the class, effectively deploying his three pitches to work through lineups multiple times. Really, it's almost the perfect profile and perhaps five to ten years ago, he would have been considered a slam dunk top ten pick with a shot at the top five. The only knock here is approach angle, as the Houston-area native comes from a very high release point that puts steep angle on all of his pitches. That used to be a desired trade, but nowadays teams are looking for flatter angles that enable the fastball to ride up in the zone, whereas Madden is mostly confined to pounding the bottom of the zone with all of his pitches. The game is always changing and perhaps this once again becomes a valued profile, and either way, he certainly has the command and stuff to be effective living around the knees. He projects more as a #3 starter than an ace, but has a very high floor and has proven fully durable in Austin. He signed for $2.5 million, which was $242,700 above slot value and roughly slot for the 28th overall pick.

2-39: SS Izaac Pacheco, Friendswood HS [TX]. My rank: #47.
The industry was a bit split on Izaac Pacheco, but his fans saw one of the best power bats in the country just demolish local pitching this spring after a solid, if at times uneven, run through the summer showcase circuit. He produces massive raw power from the left side, a product of the strength, bat speed, and leverage he can produce from his 6'4" frame. That enables him to put on a show in batting practice and in games when he gets a hold of one, which he did frequently this spring. There are more questions about the hit tool, as he has a tendency to pull off the ball looking for pull side home runs and strides towards first base rather than towards the pitcher in his load. Additionally, Pacheco can chase at times as well and swing over the top of breaking stuff. Because of that, he might move a bit more slowly at the outset, but the Tigers believe he could be a few mechanical tweaks and a refined approach away from flipping from a below average to an above average contact hitter. If he does, the power will certainly play, and he has a chance for 30+ a year if he makes enough contact. Drafted as a shortstop, Pacheco probably fits better at third base in the long run because he's not all that quick, but he is excellent a vacuuming up the balls he can get to and with his plus arm, he could be a plus defender at third base. So really, the only question here is on the hit tool (admittedly the most important tool), and if Detroit can get that figured out, it's a great all-around profile for the second round. Rather than attend Texas A&M, the Houston-area native signed for $2.75 million, which was $843,200 above slot value and roughly the value of the 25th overall pick. Through 14 games in the FCL, he's slashing .200/.322/.300 with a home run and 22 strikeouts.

3-74: RHP Dylan Smith, Alabama. My rank: #68.
Detroit went back to the college pitching ranks and drafted a third kid in a row from the Houston area, scooping up Dylan Smith after a huge breakout year at Alabama. After two unremarkable years pitching out of the Crimson Tide bullpen, he ratcheted things up with a 3.84 ERA and a 113/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 98.1 innings as a starter this spring, capping it off with a complete game win over Rider in the Ruston Regional. Like Ty Madden, he was a bit more hittable in conference play (4.89 ERA, 68/15 K/BB in 57 IP) and especially prone to the long ball. The stuff is nasty, with Smith sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and getting up to around 95-96, and he shows great feel to spin the baseball with a distinct slider and curveball that are both above average. The slider is a bit ahead of the curve, while he flips in a solid changeup that should continue to work for him in pro ball. For now, the control is ahead of the command, but he does pound the zone and with an athletic 6'2" frame and delivery, he'll likely continue to tighten it up within the zone. That should help with his home run issues, and he has a chance to pitch in the middle of the Detroit rotation in the not too distant future. There's certainly a lot to work with and a lot working for him already. The Houston-area native signed for $1.115 million, which was $270,800 above slot value.

4-104: RHP Tyler Mattison, Bryant. Unranked.
Tyler Mattison had a chance to be drafted last year, but when the draft was shortened to five rounds, those hopes largely went away. It ended up being a blessing in disguise for Mattison, who had the best year of his four year Bryant career this spring, posting a 2.46 ERA and a 95/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.1 innings and earned a much higher draft selection than he would have had. He may be a fourth year player but he's extremely young for the class and more or less age appropriate for the class below, so age isn't really much of a factor here and we can evaluate him along the same lines as most of the third year class. His fastball has been steadily ticking up and now sits in the low to mid 90's with some 98's and 99's, coming from a steep angle similar to the similarly-named Ty Madden. He adds a curveball that shows good depth and is coming along nicely, as well as a newer slider and a more established changeup that looks above average at times. The 6'4" righty has proven durable so far and significantly improved his command in 2021, giving the look of a #4 starter. He didn't face the strongest competition in the Northeastern Conference but the stuff is trending up quickly and should be able to rise to the challenge in pro ball. The far Upstate New York native signed for $400,000, which was $160,000 below slot value.

5-135: RHP Tanner Kohlhepp, Notre Dame. My rank: #154.
Tanner Kohlhepp is taking a long road to Detroit, having grown up in Wisconsin, begun his career at Tennessee, transferred to Iowa Western JC, and now finished off at Notre Dame just a few miles south of the Michigan border. He really found his stride in South Bend and put up a career year with a 3.08 ERA and a 65/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.1 innings mostly out of the Irish bullpen, often working two, three, four innings at a time. Kohlhepp shows a mid 90's fastball that can hit triple digits in short stints, adding a whole host of secondaries in a slider, cutter, and changeup. None stands out as a true plus weapon, but coming from his funky sidearm slot, they all miss bats darting in different directions while the big fastball keeps hitters from cheating to get to them. There's some effort in his funky operation that may keep the 6'4" righty from starting long term, and he'll definitely want to get better about hitting his spots within the zone, but his size and deep arsenal do give him a chance. He gets both lefties and righties out consistently and holds his stuff over multiple innings. Even if he does end up back in the bullpen, where he's fully comfortable, in my opinion there's no harm in running him out there as a starter and just seeing what happens. He is very old for his class and turned 22 in May. The Eau Claire native signed for $400,000, which was $14,000 below slot value.

7-195: LHP Brant Hurter, Georgia Tech. My rank: #195.
Brant Hurter had a chance to pitch his way into early round consideration in 2020, but Tommy John surgery took that opportunity away and he had to try again this year. Now nearly 23, he's coming off an up and down but all around solid campaign in which he posted a 3.90 ERA and an 83/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 85.1 innings, numbers that were really marred by a couple of tough starts against Louisville and Notre Dame. He sits around 90 with his fastball that can get up to 94-95 and adds a slider that looks plus on its best days, and usually at least above average. Hurter mainly sticks with those two pitches but can flip in a changeup when he needs to, and if he's going to start in pro ball, he should be able to incorporate that pitch more into his arsenal. The big 6'6" lefty has an interesting operation in which he doesn't really extend that far down the mound with his lower half, working around and then over the top of his plant leg to put some angle on the ball. Regardless, he consistently fills up the strike zone and aside from the Tommy John, he has proven durable so far and has thrown 187.1 innings in his three healthy seasons. Given his age and lack of velocity, I'd probably like to see him pushed to the bullpen and just work off the hopefully bumped-up fastball and slider, where he could move quickly. The Atlanta-area native signed for full slot value at $241,000.

9-255: RHP Garrett Burhenn, Ohio State. Unranked.
Though they haven't taken a player from Michigan or Michigan State since Jake Bivens and Grant Reuss in 2017 (neither of whom made it out of complex ball), the Tigers drafted an Ohio State Buckeye for the third consecutive season after Andrew Magno in 2019 and Dillon Dingler in 2020. Burhenn was on scouts' radars in the Midwest as an underclassman, but he really pushed himself forward by reinventing himself over the pandemic. After showing pretty ordinary stuff in 2019 and 2020, everything got a little crisper in 2021 and he finished with a 3.81 ERA and a 91/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.1 innings. His fastball sits in the low 90's with good spin, while his slider is an above average pitch and his brand new curveball works well off the slider. He also throws a changeup that looks like a solid average pitch. Burhenn has always pounded the strike zone, but he tended to get hit hard when he left his average stuff over the plate, but now that everything has improved a half grade, he's missed more bats and more barrels. The 6'3" righty has a durable frame and now has 192.2 collegiate innings under his belt despite the pandemic robbing him a full middle season, and his simplified delivery should help him stick as a back-end starter. The Indianapolis native signed for full slot value at $160,800.

16-465: RHP Jack Anderson, Florida State. Unranked.
This one might seem a bit under the radar, but Jack Anderson always caught my eye despite having more famous teammates. He had a strong year out of the Florida State bullpen and put up a 2.48 ERA with a 45/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 innings, usually working about one to two innings at a time. Anderson works with a low 90's fastball, a sharp mid 80's slider, and a changeup that gives him a third average or better pitch. He pounds the strike zone with everything and after walking three in his season-opening tuneup against North Florida, he went on a run of fourteen consecutive appearances without a free pass spanning 27.2 innings and struck out 35 in that span. I'm not usually a fan of college relievers, but I'll cut some slack in the sixteenth round despite the Tampa native's lack of a plus pitch because I think he'll make everything work really well together. If the Tigers can perhaps bring another tick of velocity out of his fastball, which I think is possible given his sturdy 6'3" frame, he has a chance to get into some high leverage situations down the line. He signed for $125,000.

2021 MLB Draft: Ten Options for the Nationals at pick #11 (final update)

The draft is almost here, so I'll be updating this story one more time. The Nationals pick at #11 and have been almost exclusively tied to arms, so that will be the focus here, but I do see three to four bats that could make sense if the Nationals want to buck some trends (and make me happy). 

First, I'll give my opinion on who I think the Nationals should draft. There are six players who I would give virtually no chance of reaching the Nationals, and those are high school shortstops Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, Brady House, and Kahlil Watson, in addition to Vanderbilt righthander Jack Leiter and Louisville catcher Henry Davis. If one of those falls to #11, the Nationals should 100% snatch one up if the signing bonus is remotely reasonable. There's also Vanderbilt ace Kumar Rocker, who is very unlikely to be available at #11, but he seems to have at least a sliver of a chance of getting down there and I absolutely don't see the Nationals passing him up if he's available. I'd go for it in that case as well. Jackson Jobe seems to be in the same boat, but prep righthanders tend to slide in the draft and if he's available with a remotely reasonable signing bonus, again I think the Nationals should pounce. In the event that all eight are gone, which is likely, there are two college bats I think the Nationals should focus on. I'd take Boston College outfielder Sal Frelick out of the remaining players, and if he's gone along with the other eight, I'd go with UCLA shortstop Matt McLain. Then in the unlikely scenario that those are the top ten picks, I'm a bit lost because I think there's a slight break in the quality of players, so I would either pick Will Bednar or just grab Gunnar Hoglund, sign him below slot, then overspend at pick #47. Below is what would be my board if I were the Nationals picking at #11, not what I think their board is, color coded by how likely they are to be available. Red is definitely not, orange is probably not, yellow is 50-50, and green is most likely.

Marcelo Mayer, Jack Leiter, Henry Davis, Brady House, Kahlil Watson, Kumar Rocker, Jackson Jobe, Sal Frelick, Matt McLain, Will Bednar, Gunnar Hoglund

Without further introduction, here are the ten players I think the Nationals are most likely to end up with at #11, ordered by likelihood. I'm not a reporter, so these are more just guesses than anything else. Slot value is just over $4.54 million and the Nationals' overall bonus pool for their top ten rounds is $8.77 million.

1. RHP Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS, OK
As I said in the previous paragraph, I don't think Jackson Jobe will make it out of the top ten, as he's getting interest as high as #3 to the Tigers. However, in the event that he does, I can absolutely see Mike Rizzo smashing Jobe's name into the keyboard or doing whatever he does to make his picks with extra zeal. The Oklahoma City product is relatively new to pitching, but his name has been rocketing up boards ever since his dominant summer a year ago. His fastball is now sitting comfortably in the low to mid 90's and has touched 98, but that's not his main weapon. Jobe's slider is arguably the best breaking ball in the entire high school class, coming in with absurd spin rates that cause it to shoot down and away from righties or into lefties at the last second. That feel for spin translates to his curveball, which is a distinct and above average pitch in its own right, and he possesses one of the better changeups in the high school class as well. Together with a clean delivery and notable athleticism, he consistently deals strikes and really has all the ingredients to be an impact starting pitcher. Aside from his demographic, that of an inherently risky high school righthander, Jobe only has one thing working against him – age. He'll turn 19 a few weeks after the draft, making him one of the older players in the class, but everything else is so good that that should not be a factor. He'll likely demand an enormous signing bonus, probably the highest on this list of ten, to keep from attending Mississippi, where he'll be draft-eligible as a sophomore in 2023.

2. RHP Ty Madden, Texas
2021 stats: 7-5, 2.45 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 137/44 K/BB in 113.2 IP.
While he is getting some looks in the back of the top ten and could end up in Colorado at #8 or Los Angeles at #9, there is a very good shot that Ty Madden is available for the Nationals at #11. The unquestioned ace of the most complete pitching staff in the country (sorry, Vanderbilt), Madden is everything the Nationals love – a big, durable, consistent performer who has the look of a mid-rotation starter. He combines arm strength with pitchability, creating the type of pitcher that does not grow on trees. Madden's fastball comes in with low to mid 90's velocity, getting up to 99 at times early in games, and he adds a potentially plus slider that plays very well off his fastball. His changeup can be a bit inconsistent, but when it's on, it gives him a third potentially above average pitch, which will help him pitch deep into games. He commands all three pitches very well, pounding the bottom of the strike zone and missing bats in bunches. If there's anything to nitpick with the Houston-area native, it's something called his VAA, or vertical approach angle. Because the 6'3" righty comes from such a high release point, everything he throws has significant downward plane, which plays very well around hitters knees and below. However, he has gotten hit harder when he leaves pitches up, and in today's launch angle-conscious game that has more hitters going for high VBA's – vertical barrel angles, – it will be especially difficult for him to be effective in that part of the zone in pro ball. Fortunately, his command means that he won't miss his spots often, and his velocity gives him some margin for error.

3. RHP Sam Bachman, Miami [OH]
2021 stats: 4-4, 1.81 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 93/17 K/BB in 59.2 IP.
Sam Bachman's draft outlook is probably about the same as Madden's with some teams interested in the back of the top ten but a good chance of reaching #11. If both he and Madden are available for the Nationals, it will be an interesting decision for Rizzo, as both pitchers seem to fit his models but for very different reasons. While Madden is durable and consistent, Bachman is more of a power arm that comes with significant durability questions, but we know Rizzo has never been one to shy away from injured or potentially-injury prone arms. Bachman's raw stuff is elite, perhaps the best in the entire class outside of the Vanderbilt duo of Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker. The 6'1" righty deals regularly in the mid 90's with his fastball and has touched as high as 101, but it's not just the velocity that makes it a special pitch. He also comes from an extremely low release point while still maintaining a three quarters arm slot, putting tremendous ride on the pitch that makes it play exceptionally well up in the zone. And with his velocity, even when he misses over the plate, it's tough to square up. Bachman also adds a plus slider that breaks late and tight, playing well off the fastball. As with Madden, his changeup has been a bit less consistent, but it too flashes above average and like Madden, he could have three plus pitches at the major league level. While he doesn't quite parallel the Longhorn ace in the command arena, his ability to hit his spots is trending upwards and he fills up the strike zone very consistently, setting himself apart from other data-friendly power arms. The drawback here is durability, as the Indianapolis-area native throws with considerable effort and some evaluators don't like his arm action. Additionally, he missed a few weeks this spring with arm soreness and I don't think he ever threw 100 pitches in a game, so he comes with considerable relief risk even if the pure stuff and command fit in the rotation. Personally, I'd pull the trigger on Bachman before Madden, but I'm not sure about Rizzo.

4. SS Matt McLain, UCLA
2021 stats: 9 HR, .333/.434/.579, 9 SB, 34/34 K/BB in 47 games.
Jackson Jobe, Ty Madden, and Sam Bachman seem like the clear frontrunners to me, so after those three this list definitely becomes guesswork. If the Nationals were to pass on an arm and pick up a bat, UCLA shortstop Matt McLain seems like the most likely bet to me. He was extremely well regarded coming out of his Los Angeles-area high school, but surprisingly turned down the Diamondbacks after being drafted 25th overall in 2018. His time at UCLA has been up and down, but there have been more ups and than downs and he was on a tear before going down with a broken thumb in May, then picked up where he left off in a brief return. Though he's just 5'11" and skinny at that, he has always possessed great feel to hit and has learned to drive the ball more and more consistently throughout his time in Los Angeles, now projecting for at least average power. He also tightened up the strike zone in 2021, aiding projections for a plus hit tool, and his plus speed enables him to be a factor on the basepaths. The jury is still out on whether he can stick at shortstop long term, as he has the athleticism to profile there but his feel for the spot has been inconsistent. Either way, he profiles as a plus defender at second base, so you're getting significant value on the defensive side to go along with his top-of-the-lineup offensive upside. Personally, I'd prefer McLain over both Madden and Bachman.

5. RHP Will Bednar, Mississippi State
2021 stats: 9-1, 3.12 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 139/26 K/BB in 92.1 IP.
When I first started working on this list, I didn't include Will Bednar, despite the fact that I personally would have considered him at #11 if I were picking. However, after dominating at the College World Series and allowing no hits in the final game, he seems to be much more of a realistic target for Mike Rizzo and co. Bednar has been trending straight up since he landed in Starkville with a 2.93 ERA and a 37% strikeout rate (162 in 107.2 innings) against top competition, and he can attack hitters in a lot of ways. His main weapon is a low to mid 90's fastball that can hit 96-97 early in games but usually settles into the 91-94 range, playing up because it has tremendous riding life that plays extremely well up in the zone. He adds a plus slider with extreme horizontal sweep, then can go to an average curve and changeup that he uses significantly less often. While the Pittsburgh-area native doesn't have pinpoint command, he generally fills up the strike zone and has gotten better at locating his pitches to all four quadrants even as his stuff has leapt forward. He has a durable 6'2" frame and looks the part of a #2 starter.

6. OF Sal Frelick, Boston College
2021 stats: 6 HR, .359/.443/.559, 13 SB, 28/27 K/BB in 48 games.
Sal Frelick's draft stock is in a similar place to McLain's, if perhaps a tick better, and I would prefer Frelick if both he and McLain were available. In fact, among the players with any significant chance to reach the Nationals at pick #11, Frelick is the one I want. He elevated his profile this year by coming out of the gate hot when most other first round bats stumbled, and he maintained the hot hitting to finish the season hitting .359/.443/.559 with just a 12.3% strikeout rate. Undersized at 5'9", he's an elite athlete that plays with a ton of energy, giving him the ability to impact the game in numerous ways. He makes a ton of contact with plus bat to ball skills and excellent adjustability in his left handed swing that helps him find the barrel even against tough pitches, and when he gets one over the plate, he has enough power to make you pay. The Boston-area native is a plus runner that will gladly steal a base or two and will stick in center field, though some have toyed with trying him at second base. Personally, I'd just leave him at center and let him run wild. If the Nationals drafted him, he would immediately become the most dynamic player in their system.

7. RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi
2021 stats: 4-2, 2.87 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 96/17 K/BB in 62.2 IP.
#11 overall might be a bit early to nab a pitcher fresh off spring Tommy John surgery, but Mike Rizzo has never shied away from injured pitchers early in the draft and depending on who's available here, I wouldn't mind the pick either. Aside from a healthy right arm, Gunnar Hoglund has everything you look for in a starting pitching prospect – velocity, two offspeed pitches, command, a clean delivery, consistent performance, and an upward trajectory. His fastball previously sat effortlessly around 90, but the 6'4" righty added some juice in 2021 and ticked up to about 92-94, touching as high as 97 early in games. After mostly pitching off his fastball early in his career, he began to lean more on an improved slider in 2021 that touched the upper 80's, getting consistently above average grades. And as the season moved on, he began incorporating a surprisingly good changeup more and more, giving him three above average pitches to work with. On top of all of that, he has regularly been noted as having some of the best command in the class, easily locating all of his pitches where he wants them. There are no weaknesses in this profile and given that Tommy John is becoming more and more of a regularity, the Tampa-area native could present Rizzo with a really interesting discount option. From there, Mike can overspend at pick #47, perhaps on a high school arm like Frank Mozzicato, Ben Kudrna, or Maddux Bruns, though I would personally prefer Mozzicato or Kudrna to Bruns (and I'd prefer a high school bat over all three of them, though I doubt Rizzo would go that route).

8. OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State
2021 stats: 16 HR, .374/.490/.680, 17 SB, 32/42 K/BB in 55 games.
Fun fact, Colton Cowser was actually teammates with Ty Madden at Cypress Ranch High School in the Houston suburbs, and they were actually the third and fourth best prospects on that team at the time behind 2019 draftees JJ Goss (Rays, 36th overall) and Matthew Thompson (White Sox, 45th overall). He's been on a tear since late March, once homering four times in two games and another time going deep in five consecutive games, all while pushing his on-base percentage close to .500. Evaluators have long been waiting for him to grow into his 6'3" frame and start tapping his power, and he showed this year he has a chance to be average in that regard. Cowser is also an excellent contact hitter who consistently puts together professional at bats, showing that with significantly more walks (42) than strikeouts (32) in 2021. Though he wasn't facing the toughest competition in the Southland Conference, he did perform well with the US Collegiate National Team back in 2019, so evaluators are very comfortable with his offensive profile. He's also an above average runner who can swipe a base and be a net-positive in the outfield, where he projects as a fringy centerfielder or an above average corner guy. Cowser profiles as a potential leadoff guy who can hit 15-20 home runs per season for the Nationals down the line.

9. RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt
2021 stats: 14-4, 2.73 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 179/39 K/BB in 122 IP.
I think it's highly unlikely Kumar Rocker makes it all the way to the Nationals. There has been some talk of him going as high as fifth overall to the Orioles, while the Diamondbacks at #6 and the Royals at #7 have shown interest as well. But if the chips fall that way and Rocker gets out of the top ten, I absolutely do not see Mike Rizzo letting him go any further. At this point, we all know the book on Kumar. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's deep into games, with his extension making the pitch play up. Rocker's slider is one of the best pitches in college baseball when he's commanding it, making even advanced hitters look like absolute fools. He throws a cutter that has a chance to be an above average pitch and while he has shown a changeup in the past, he didn't use it much in 2021 and it wasn't particularly effective when he broke it out late in the season. Rocker has also been noted as a control-over-command pitcher throughout his career, one who has no trouble filling up the strike zone or eliciting chases but who struggles to hit spots within the zone. Regardless, his exceptional track record in the SEC and strong makeup that enables him to step up when the lights shine the brightest will not be lost on scouting directors come draft day, and the stuff is so good that he can afford merely average command in pro ball and still succeed. If the command steps up from 50 to 55, he'll be an ace.

10. RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS, FL
Eleventh overall feels a touch too early to grab Andrew Painter, but Mike Rizzo loves himself a high school pitcher and if Jackson Jobe is off the board, he could come into consideration. Painter entered the spring as the top pitching prospect in the high school class, but a combination of a loud spring from Jobe and a slow start for Painter changed that. He turned it around as the season went on, helping most traditional evaluators feel comfortable that he is still the second best. Painter is a huge, 6'6" righthander that combines physical projection with present stuff and pitchability. His fastball gets up to 95-96 without much effort, and he holds the low 90's deep into games. The South Florida product adds a pair of distinct, above average breaking balls, while his changeup is more advanced than that of most high school pitchers. He commands everything well, giving him an extremely well-rounded profile at a young age that reminds some of Mick Abel a year ago, albeit with less glowing numbers on the analytic side. The reason Painter might belong closer to the back of the first round is just that, the analytics, as some see a more traditional arsenal that doesn't stand out in today's game of high spin rates. Personally, I see Gage Jump and Chase Petty as the second and third best high school pitchers in the class, but my guess is the Nationals have Painter as #2 behind Jobe. He'll likely be an expensive sign with a Florida commitment, but at #11, I don't see him going above slot value.

Potential Second Round Targets

I mentioned a few times that the Nationals might elect to save some money early on with a pick like Gunnar Hoglund or Gavin Williams, or perhaps even on any number of other players on this list not named Jobe or Rocker (albeit less), and that would enable them to go after an expensive high schooler in the second round at pick #47. Knowing the Nationals, that would likely be a high school pitcher. Some options there:

LHP Frank Mozzicato, East Catholic HS, CT
Mozzicato has been flying up boards late in the spring once the Connecticut high school season finally got started, absolutely dominating his Hartford-area competition with a low 90's fastball and one of the best curveballs in the high school class. He's young for the class and has projection remaining in his 6'3" frame, but that projection is important considering he only tops out at 93 as of now. He's a UConn recruit.

RHP Ben Kudrna, Blue Valley Southwest HS, KS
Kudrna hasn't burst onto the scene quite like Mozzicato, but he's been quietly sliding up boards for a long time now. His fastball has ticked up into the mid 90's and he fills up the strike zone with an above average slider and changeup, all from a clean, repeatable delivery. The Kansas City-area product doesn't quite have the bat-missing stuff to project as an ace, but he has a higher floor than most high school pitchers. He's committed to LSU.

LHP Maddux Bruns, UMS-Wright Prep HS, AL
Named after Greg Maddux, this 6'2" lefty has a bit of a different profile. The Mobile native has huge raw stuff, led by a fastball that has reportedly touches the upper 90's, as well as a plus curveball and an above average slider. It's power, power, power, but at this point he has extremely inconsistent command that can be anywhere from average to non-playable. Bruns is one day shy of a full year older than Mozzicato, so he's already 19 and will be draft-eligible after two years at Mississippi State if he gets there. I would prefer both Mozzicato and Kudrna heavily to Bruns.

This is an extremely deep class of high school bats, so there will undoubtedly be numerous available at #47 that really shouldn't be there. They'll be very expensive at this point and will require an above-slot bonus, but if the Nationals save money at pick #11, they should be able to get one. I think it's much more likely they go for a pitcher, but I would really like one of the bats.

SS Max Muncy, Thousand Oaks HS, CA
No, not that Max Muncy. This Muncy (no relation) really stands out for his feel for the game, and even if he's not the most athletic player in the class, he understands his body and maximizes the production he gets out of his 6'1" frame. He has a chance to be a very well-rounded player who could improve quickly with pro coaching and conditioning. He's committed to Arkansas.

3B Wes Kath, Desert Mountain HS, AZ
Kath has been trending up this spring as one of the most well-rounded bats in the West. He combines a strong feel to hit with impressive raw power in his sturdy, 6'3" frame, giving him the chance for both high on-base percentages and high slugging percentages. He has the arm for third base and may be able to stick there. Kath is an Arizona State commit.

SS James Triantos, James Madison HS, VA
Okay, pick #47 might be just a little bit rich for James Triantos, but we have to include the local kid. Oh yeah, and he plays at my alma mater and I used to take batting practice in his backyard, so while I haven't seen him hit since he was in middle school, I'm following this one pretty closely. Triantos has absolutely ripped the cover off the ball this spring, helping lead Madison High School in Vienna to its first state championship since 2015, a team which I was on. He produces great leverage through the zone that gives him power to all fields, and he simply hasn't swung and missed this spring, either. He's probably a third baseman long term and while he's a UNC commit, signability likely won't be an issue this early.

2021 MLB Draft: Ten Options for the Nationals at pick #11 (April update)

Back in February, before the season started, I highlighted ten players I could see the Nationals taking with the eleventh overall pick. Now in April, a lot has changed, so I'll spare the introduction that can be found in the original article and hop right into it. With nearly three months to go, a lot can and will still change, but here is where things stand now. Ranking on my most recent top 75 in parentheses.

RHP Ty Madden, Texas (#11)
2019-2020: 7-1, 2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 63/28 K/BB in 67.1 IP.
2021: 4-1, 1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 57/18 K/BB in 53.1 IP.
As I mentioned last time, this one really fits with the Nationals' drafting style. Ty Madden is your traditional, tall, consistent right hander with no glaring flaws to his game. His low to mid 90's fastball has topped out at 99 this spring, and he commands it well to both sides of the plate. He adds a slider that is usually at least average and flashes plus, as well as a consistently above average changeup. Combine three at least above average pitches with consistent command and a durable frame, and you have a prototypical starting pitcher. As he's continued to stay healthy and pound the strike zone, worries have faded over his slightly funky arm action that features some stab in the back, and instead focus on the "old school" steep plane on his pitches. Coming from straight over the top, his VAA (vertical approach angle) is difficult to lift with a traditional hitting approach, but won't miss as many bats as a flatter, Jack Leiter-esque fastball. Still, with an excellent spring that has featured seven consecutive starts of at least six innings and no more than two runs or three walks, he's as safe a bet as anybody in this draft to become a mid-rotation starter, something the Nationals would love.

RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi (#8)
2019-2020: 6-3, 4.24 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 90/18 K/BB in 91.1 IP.
2021: 3-1, 2.57 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 78/16 K/BB in 49 IP.
Gunnar Hoglund was in the "other possibilities" section of this list last time, but a bump in velocity puts him squarely in the conversation for Washington at pick #11, if he even makes it out of the top ten. Despite touching 96 in high school, Hoglund was generally around 90 throughout his first two years at Ole Miss, instead focusing deploying his plus command. He threw an average slider that flashed above average, as well as a seldom-used changeup, but mostly pitched off that fastball by dotting it right where he wanted it. Even though we knew he had more velocity in the tank, it was still a back-of-the-first-round profile until he proved it. Well, in 2021, he proved it. I was at Globe Life Field in Arlington to catch his start against Texas Tech, where he came out throwing 94-95 in the first inning and now two months later, he hasn't looked back. Holding that same plus command, Hoglund is regularly in the low to mid 90's nowadays with an effortless delivery that screams durability. His slider has taken a big step forward and is regularly above average, flashing plus, and it's topping out around 87-88, which was the lower end of his fastball velocity a year ago. He's also broken out that changeup more often and it's looking like a solidly above average pitch as well. At this point, I would prefer the Nationals draft Hoglund to Madden, but he might not even make it this far if he keeps pitching like this.

RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt (#3)
2019-2020: 14-6, 3.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 142/29 K/BB in 114.2 IP.
2021: 7-1, 1.88 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 73/14 K/BB in 48 IP.
Wait, what? Isn't Kumar Rocker supposed to be a candidate at 1-1? Well, his stock his slipping just a little bit right now. If the draft were today, he wouldn't make it to the Nationals at pick #11, but the draft is not today and he might be trending in that direction. For most of his time at Vanderbilt, the big righty has sat in the mid 90's with his fastball and touched 97-98 at the high end, but over his past few starts, that velocity has dipped pretty significantly into the low 90's. When you're talking about the very top of the draft, where teams are making potentially franchise-altering decisions, that's a big deal. There are teams wondering whether it's health related, fatigue related, or what, but he's going to want to answer that question definitively before July. Still, we're talking about a kid with great extension and a flat VAA (remember Madden had a steep VAA) that makes his fastball play above its velocity, and while his command is not pinpoint, he's been very consistent about landing the pitch for strikes (though the quality of those strikes has been nitpicked). He also adds arguably the best breaking ball in the class, an elite slider that crushes souls and could get big league hitters out right now. Rocker hasn't used his changeup as much, but it does flash above average. If his velocity comes back before the draft, it's highly unlikely he's available to the Nationals at pick #11, but continued fluctuations coupled with fastball command questions (i.e., hitting spots) could push him outside the top ten. So long as he stays healthy and nothing drastic happens, I see the Nationals as a potential floor for him.

SS Matt McLain, UCLA (#23)
2019-2020: 7 HR, .244/.306/.411, 7 SB, 77/21 K/BB in 74 games.
2021: 6 HR, .314/.411/.542, 4 SB, 20/19 K/BB in 29 games.
I mentioned Matt McLain as an option for the Nationals back in February, and after a relatively slow start to the season, he was trending away from this list. However, he's now picked up a hit in sixteen of his last seventeen games and at one point hit four home runs in four games against Washington and Stanford, pushing his name back into consideration here just outside the top ten. McLain has no one flashy tool, but is instead what you call a "gamer" – the kid can just play. Despite standing a skinny 5'11", his athleticism and strong feel for the barrel have enabled him to tap more and more power throughout his amateur career, and that power showed up with wood bats as well in an exceptional turn through the California Collegiate League over the summer. He has reduced the swing and miss in his game as well, dropping his strikeout rate from 25.7% as a freshman to 20.3% as a sophomore and 14.2% this year as a junior. Meanwhile, his walk rate climbed from 6.8% and 6.3% over his first two years to 13.5% this year. A strong athlete, he is also a plus runner and has an outside chance at sticking at shortstop, though his feel to play the position at a major league level is questionable and he might fit better at second or third base. Overall, we're talking about a kid who can impact a baseball game in a lot of ways, and for a traditional team like the Nationals, a 15-20 home run bat with relatively high batting averages and an infield glove sounds like a fit. An August birthday makes him relatively old for the class, and that turns off some teams, but the Nationals did pop fellow August baby Cade Cavalli in the first round last year.

OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State (#28)
2019-2020: 8 HR, .339/.436/.554, 14 SB, 38/34 K/BB in 70 games.
2021: 12 HR, .351/.486/.730, 9 SB, 23/24 K/BB in 31 games.
Colton Cowser, like his alliterative counterpart Matt McLain, was featured on this list back in February, and he's on a similar, if more extreme, trajectory. Cowser was excellent as a freshman (.361/.450/.602) but never really got going in his shortened sophomore season (.255/.379/.364), then got off to a slow start in 2021 that caused many in the industry (myself included) to sour on him a bit. I actually dropped him as low as #41 at one point. However, he clubbed four home runs in two games against Northwestern State and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi to bust out of that slump in a big way, then later homered in five consecutive games against Central Arkansas, Texas A&M, and New Orleans. Now that he's hot again, there is a lot to like in this profile. Ty Madden's high school teammate has a very strong feel for hitting, something he showed on a national stage with the US Collegiate National Team back in 2019. He has a flat left handed swing that is more geared for line drives than fly balls, but he finds that barrel extremely frequently against the so-so Southland Conference pitching he faces at Sam Houston State. With a wiry 6'3" frame, it's easy to see him tacking on a bit more power, though he will need to tinker with his swing to get there consistently against pro pitching. Cowser, like McLain, is a plus runner, though as an outfielder he's working to prove he can stick in center field. In a year without many viable college bats, a guy like Cowser who can impact the game in a lot of ways sticks out.

OF Sal Frelick, Boston College (#12)
2019-2020: 6 HR, .332/.428/.486, 25 SB, 22/33 K/BB in 54 games.
2021: 5 HR, .360/.438/.576, 8 SB, 15/16 K/BB in 30 games.
Here's a new name. Coming into the season, Sal Frelick was an interesting back-of-the-first-round type who could impact the game in a lot of ways (that's three straight players I've used that verbiage for) but didn't necessarily stick out. Halfway through the season, boy does he stick out as arguably the second best college position player out there (at this point, there's probably no catching Henry Davis). The Massachusetts native has been blasting the ball around the field with ferocity this season, finding the barrel extremely consistently with elite bat to ball skills and wiry strength. In the past, he's often sold out for contact by putting bad (but successful) swings on bad pitches, and this year he's doing more damage and getting his "A" swing off more often. Described as a "ridiculous athlete," he plays a great center field with plus speed and could even fit at second base if needed. Some teams might be scared off by the size in this part of the draft, but that would be foolish and Frelick has every chance to become an impact, every day center fielder with 15-20 home run power (perhaps more), high on-base percentages, and plenty of stolen bases. Between McLain and Cowser, Frelick is probably the least likely to still be on the board when the Nationals pick.

RHP Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS [OK] (#16)
This might be a bit of a reach unless they under slot him, but I do want to include a couple of high school pitchers for a team that has a history with them (see Mason Denaburg, Lucas Giolito). Jackson Jobe is an extremely interesting pitcher out of the Oklahoma City high school ranks, and could give the Nationals a second straight first round Okie pitcher after Tulsa-native and Sooner star Cade Cavalli last year. Relatively new to pitching, the 6'2" righty was better prospect as a hitter until a huge summer on the showcase circuit as a pitcher last year. He has a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90's in short stints and gets up to 95-96, but the real story is his slider. While Kumar Rocker has the best breaking ball in the college class, Jobe's slider is the best in the high school class with ridiculous spin rates well north of 3000 RPM's. Its bite is late, it's tight, and it's just a wicked pitch overall. He also adds a curveball and a changeup that flash above average, and by staying healthy and filling up the strike zone this spring, he has added confidence that he'll stick in the rotation. Jobe is old for the class and will turn 19 slightly after the draft, but even if that did bother the Nationals, the fact that he's relatively new to pitching should offset it. He is committed to Ole Miss but in the top half of the first round, I don't expect him to be too expensive.

RHP Bubba Chandler, North Oconee HS [GA] (#29)
Same deal as Jackson Jobe here – this would probably be a reach unless he signed well below slot, but the Nationals aren't afraid of high school pitchers and Bubba Chandler seems like a guy they would like. Pitching at Kumar Rocker's alma mater near Athens, Georgia, Chandler is a ridiculous athlete who is actually committed to Clemson to play quarterback as well. If you follow college football at all, you know the enormity of that distinction – kid's a stud. Heading into the spring, it seemed unlikely that his projected second to fourth round draft range would deter him away from Dabo Swinney's program, but he's had some of the most helium of any high schooler in the country this spring. Does that push him all the way up to the Nationals at pick #11? Probably not, but we can still discuss it. Chandler is a 6'3" righty with a fastball that has leapt into the mid 90's, touching 97, and his command has held solid as well. He adds a sharp curveball that looks like one of the best breakers in the class at its best, a new slider that brings a more horizontal look, and a changeup that is quickly becoming a weapon in its own right. Combine that with obviously immense athleticism and you have a very, very interesting arm to buy early in the draft. That Clemson commitment will make him very expensive if he were picked closer to the back of the first round, but here at the eleventh pick you could probably under slot him.

SS Kahlil Watson, Wake Forest HS [NC] (#7)
We'll finish up with a couple of bats. While Bubba Chandler might be a reach here, Kahlil Watson might not even make it to pick #11 with the way he's trending. If he is available, the Nationals would be smart to snatch him up. Though Raleigh-Durham is Braves country in reality, his hometown of Wake Forest, NC is technically closer to Washington than it is to Atlanta and I'll call that a hometown pick. Watson is a loud player in every sense of the word, but the first thing you notice is his swing. He generates tremendous torque from the left side with a vicious uppercut, giving him plus raw power despite a smaller 5'9" frame. Despite the ferocity of his swing, it's a controlled operation and he's made consistent contact both on the showcase circuit and this spring in North Carolina. Watson also showcases plus speed that makes him a threat on the bases, and combined with his strong arm makes him a good bet to stick at shortstop. A high-energy player that is fun to watch on the diamond, he has face-of-the-franchise upside if he reaches it. For now, he's probably just outside that top tier of high school hitters (Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, Brady House) just due to a hit tool that's more average than above average, but he could very well be gone anyways in the top ten. He's committed to NC State and will be expensive.

OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL] (#9)
This one would really be a hometown pick, as James Wood grew up in Olney, Maryland, about twenty miles due north of Nationals Park. He attends the famed IMG Academy down in Florida along with numerous other 2021 and 2022 draft prospects, where he's actually their second best draft prospect behind 2022's Elijah Green. Wood is a towering 6'6" slugger who can absolutely punish a baseball when he connects, but the separating factor is actually his hit tool. He makes surprisingly easy contact for a hitter so big and so strong, identifying balls and strikes well against elite competition. That makes him all the more dangerous and has earned him comparisons to Zac Veen, who went ninth overall to the Rockies last year, though Wood has more present power. He's an easygoing kid who plays the game with an ultra-low heartbeat, somewhat the opposite of Kahlil Watson above him on this list, letting his play do the talking. For now, he's a good athlete as well who can actually handle center field, but he'll likely slow down as he ages and right field is probably the best fit with his cannon arm. Wood has true middle-of-the-order upside as a kid who could hit 30+ home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Committed to Mississippi State, he will likely be an expensive sign.

A few other possibilities
RHP McCade Brown, Indiana
OF Christian Franklin, Arkansas
C Luca Tresh, North Carolina State
RHP Chase Petty, Mainland Regional HS [NJ]
C Harry Ford, North Cobb HS [GA]

Updates on those mentioned last time

RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn (#43): 0-3, 7.71 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 16/6 K/BB in 18.2 IP.
Fitts had a chance to pitch himself into top ten consideration with a strong spring, but instead he lost his rotation spot at Auburn as he's proven more hittable than expected despite filling up the strike zone relatively well. Analytics-driven teams will still like his high spin fastball and pair of nice secondaries, but because he hasn't proven he can start, he figures to go closer to the back of the first round at best.

LHP Steven Hajjar, Michigan (#56): 1-0, 2.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 42/10 K/BB in 35.1 IP.
It's been a much stronger season for Hajjar than for Fitts, but Hajjar was a long shot two months ago and hasn't taken the step forward he needed. His velocity is still relatively fringy around 90, peaking into the low 90's, which isn't enough this early in the draft. He has promising secondaries and has thrown more consistent strikes in 2021, so he'll still be a strong option in the second round, perhaps even for the Nationals at pick #47.

RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State (#37): 2-3, 6.67 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 25/12 K/BB in 29.2 IP.
It's been an unfortunate season for Jaden Hill at every step of the way. A potential top five pick coming into the season, concerns started to crop up when his slider proved more inconsistent than expected and he failed to miss as many bats with his fastball as some scouts had hoped. Then on April 2nd in a highly touted matchup against potential first overall pick Jack Leiter, he walked off the field holding his elbow and ended up needing Tommy John surgery. It is truly remarkable how Jaden Hill has transformed himself as a pitcher over three years in Baton Rouge, but now with two season-ending injuries in three years and no consistent track record of starting, it's really hard to project him as a long term starter in the big leagues. I don't think the Nationals would bite at #11, but if he slipped to #47 in the second round, I could see them paying him well above slot to sign.

3B Alex Binelas, Louisville (#40): 7 HR, .231/.319/.496, 2 SB, 30/12 K/BB in 30 games.
It hasn't exactly been smooth sailing for Alex Binelas. After taking the ACC by storm as a freshman (.291/.383/.612), he played just two games a sophomore due to a broken hand. Healthy in 2021, he struggled mightily out of the gate with just one hit in his first six games against relatively weak competition. He's since shown glimpses of the star he was as a freshman, including a four game stretch against NC State, Western Kentucky, and Notre Dame in which he went 9-15 with three home runs, but overall he just hasn't been able to recover the stock he lost with those early season struggles. Combine that with a move to first base for Louisville, and he fits closer to the back of the first round at best right now.

RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS [FL] (#26)
I considered including Andrew Painter on this list again this time around, but ultimately I opted for the two prep arms trending up (Jackson Jobe and Bubba Chandler) rather than one trending down. Painter's stock isn't crashing, per se, but he's no longer the consensus top pitcher in the class after a spring where his command has been a bit shakier than before and he's been hit a little harder. There's still a lot to like in a 6'6" right hander who can hit the mid 90's, adds a full arsenal, and shows well above average command at times, but not at pick #11. He could be an option for the Nationals at pick #47 if they want to sign him way above slot. He's committed to Florida and will want first round money no matter what.

SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA] (#5)
Unlike the other names that I included last time but didn't this time, Brady House isn't slipping. Instead, he's continued to wow evaluators with his huge tool set and I think it's highly unlikely he gets to the Nationals at pick #11 unless his signing bonus demands are outrageous. If House goes out and lights up the pre-draft showcases like I expect him to, we'll see him go well within the top ten picks.

2021 MLB Draft: Ten early options for the Nationals at pick #11

The Nationals will pick eleventh overall in this year's draft, the highest they've picked since selecting Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon sixth overall in 2011. Rendon was the fourth in an extremely successful run of first round picks, including Stephen Strasburg (1st overall, 2009), Drew Storen (10th overall, 2009), and Bryce Harper (1st overall, 2010). Since Rendon, the Nationals have not had overwhelming success in the first round, with perhaps Erick Fedde (18th overall, 2014) and Carter Kieboom (28th overall, 2016) being the only ones to make any kind of impact on the big league club so far. Lucas Giolito (16th overall, 2012) has become a star, but with the White Sox.

Recent first round picks:
2020: RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (22nd overall)
2019: RHP Jackson Rutledge, San Jacinto CC (17th overall)
2018: RHP Mason Denaburg, Merritt Island HS, FL (27th overall)
2017: LHP Seth Romero, Houston (25th overall)
2016: SS Carter Kieboom, Walton HS, GA (28th overall)

There's a clear trend with the Nationals, a more traditional organization that likes big college pitchers and isn't afraid of a little injury history. Cavalli, Denaburg, Fedde, Giolito, and Rendon all had significant injury history when the Nationals drafted then, and Romero was healthy but saw his stock drop due to serious off-field makeup concerns. To this point, Kieboom has been a moderate success, and the jury is still out on Romero, Rutledge, and Cavalli. Meanwhile, Denaburg has been limited to just 20.1 innings with a 7.52 ERA in complex ball, and while at 21 years old he still has a chance to reclaim his prospect status, that one may end up being a bust. Now, a lot will definitely change between February and July, but heading into the spring season, here are ten names for Nationals fans to track.

RHP Ty Madden, Texas
2019-2020: 7-1, 2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 63/28 K/BB in 67.1 IP.
This one fits the Nationals' drafting style to a tee. First, we can look at the relatively meaningless geographic parallels, as the Houston-area native follows Houston picks Rendon, Romero, and Rutledge, and would also give the Nationals a second consecutive Big 12 arm after Cavalli. More importantly, Ty Madden is a very traditional 6'3" college righty except for a bit of a funky arm action, something I'd suspect only further endears him to an organization not afraid of injuries. Madden sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, getting up to 96-97 in games and topping out around 99 in bullpen sessions, putting fairly unique downward angle and run on the ball that makes it difficult to lift. He adds a relatively inconsistent slider that is usually at least average but can flash true plus, and his changeup has been a more stable offering for him that plays consistently above average and flashes plus as well. His command has come along nicely, walking just four of 97 batters in 2020 (a 4.1% rate, down from 13% in 2019), though the Nationals' brass will want to see him hold that command over a full season. If things break right for him and he stays healthy (or perhaps even if he doesn't), I'm sure the Nationals will take a very hard look at the potential #2 starter.

RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn
2019-2020: 6-3, 4.88 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 63/22 K/BB in 75.2 IP.
Richard Fitts has a little bit more to prove than Madden, having pitched mostly out of the bullpen so far at Auburn, but he has a chance to don the Curly W as well. Another big, 6'3" righty, Fitts impressed evaluators at fall practice in 2020 and pushed his way from a second or third round projection to a legitimate first round contender. In the fall, he worked in a starting role where his fastball began consistently hitting the mid 90's, playing up due to the tough crossfire angle he puts on the ball. The Birmingham-area native adds a downer slider and an above average splitter, and he lands all three pitches for strikes consistently. He looked the part of a future mid-rotation starter in the fall, and if he can hold that profile in the spring, a traditional organization like the Nationals could pounce very early. Watch to see if his velocity and command hold.

LHP Steven Hajjar, Michigan
2020: 3-0, 2.70 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 24/11 K/BB in 20 IP.
Like Fitts, Steven Hajjar has a lot to prove in 2021, but he has the chance to establish himself as a prototypical college lefty ace. Currently on the fringes of the first round conversation, Hajjar has thrown just twenty innings in his college career due to a 2019 ACL tear and the 2020 shutdown. 6'5" left handed pitchers will grab the attention of scouts traditional and progressive alike, and that's why teams love his upside. His fastball sits in the low 90's when he's on, while his slider and changeup both flash plus as well. However, we're yet to see any kind of proven consistency, especially considering the Massachusetts native's stuff was down a bit in the fall, his fastball occasionally dipping into the upper 80's and his secondary pitches flattening out. Given that, the fact that he's very young for the class (won't turn 21 until August) really helps his case, and scouts believe that his youth only adds to his upside. If Hajjar comes out this spring holding more consistent fastball velocity and taking a step forward with his command, which is presently below average, he could fly off the board. From there, it would be easy to project plus stuff and an impact starter ceiling on him.

RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State
2019-2020: 1-0, 0.83 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 28/8 K/BB in 21.2 IP.
Jaden Hill, like Hajjar, has barely been on the mound in NCAA play, but that's about where the similarities start and end. While Hajjar is from the Boston suburbs, Hill hails from Ashdown, a small Arkansas town near Texarkana. And while Hajjar might fit more in the early second round if the draft were today, Hill is already firmly in the top ten discussion. The big, 6'4" righty is a former high school quarterback armed with a fastball that has touched the upper 90's in short stints, and his secondary pitches are well ahead of Hajjar's as well. The slider flashes double plus at its best, rendering hitters completely helpless as it dives all the way across the plate, and his changeup has long been a weapon in its own right since his high school days. He recently added a cutter as well, giving him a four pitch arsenal that makes him one of the toughest at bats in college baseball. On top of it all, he's actually proven to be a solid strike thrower, something that usually isn't the case with that kind of elite stuff. Of course, the injury issues are the biggest concern here, as elbow soreness and collarbone surgery (stemming from a high school football injury) kept him off the mound for much of 2019 and the shutdown stopped him in 2020. For that reason, he has not been able to prove his stuff or command can hold over a full season, and it gives him a wide range of outcomes. If Hill comes out and stays healthy for a full season, with his stuff looking as sharp in June as it did in February, there is no chance he makes it to the Nationals at pick #11 – he could legitimately be gone in the first five picks in that case. If his stuff dips early in the season and doesn't come back, then the Nationals might pass on him. But if the stuff stays sharp and he deals with continued nagging injuries, he could perfectly fit the Nationals' draft strategy of targeting high upside starting pitchers with injury concerns. In fact, it really wouldn't be too dissimilar a pick to Cavalli last year.

SS Matt McLain, UCLA
2019-2020: 7 HR, .244/.306/.411, 7 SB, 77/21 K/BB in 74 games.
As far as traditional bats go, Matt McLain is right at the top of the list. A first round pick out of a Los Angeles-area high school in 2018, McLain didn't sign with the Diamondbacks and instead headed to UCLA, where he struggled to a .203/.276/.355 line as a freshman. However, his stock has since recovered and more, with a hot start to the 2020 season (.397/.422/.621) and an even hotter run through summer ball (.436/.536/.773). McLain is a bit undersized at 5'11", but has exceptional feel for the barrel that enables him to spray line drives around the field and could end up giving him 15-20 home run power in time. Though he makes very easy contact most of the time, he can expand the zone against breaking balls and that leads to some minor strikeout concerns. Unless he makes a dramatic shift in his aggressive approach, McLain will likely never draw a ton of walks, but he should hit for a high enough batting average to put up strong on-base percentages. A premium athlete, his plus speed helps him on both sides of the ball and should keep him at shortstop in the long run. Improved plate discipline in 2021 could have him off the board before the Nationals have a chance to make a selection, but his present profile fits right into the Nationals' drafting philosophy.

3B Alex Binelas, Louisville
2019-2020: 14 HR, .286/.376/.596, 3 SB, 50/27 K/BB in 61 games.
If the Nationals decide to go with a college bat, Alex Binelas makes just as much sense as Matt McLain. While he wasn't nearly as famous as McLain at Oak Creek High School in the Milwaukee suburbs, his massive freshman season (14 HR, .291/.383/.612) rocketed him into the national spotlight, but a hand injury in the second game of his sophomore season means that freshman season is all we have to go off of. Binelas brings a lightning quick left handed swing that produces plus raw and game power, sending balls over the fence or to the gaps with consistent triple digit exit velocities. Despite its explosiveness, that swing can get choppy at times, leading to some swing and miss (19.8% K rate as a freshman). It's not a major concern at this point considering he was a freshman in the ACC, but it's something he'll have to cut down on in his junior year, especially in conference play. If he does, he might already be off the board before the Nationals pick at #11, but positional questions could work in Washington's favor if they cause him to slip a little. A third baseman at Louisville, his cannon arm gives him a chance to stick over there, but he's a somewhat choppy defender and might be stretched in the shifting era. The upside in his bat is so great that teams in the top ten picks might be willing to risk a move to first base, but continued swing and miss questions could keep him around for the Nats.

OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State
2019-2020: 8 HR, .339/.436/.554, 14 SB, 38/34 K/BB in 70 games.
Another traditional bat for the Nationals to consider is Colton Cowser, who was actually teammates with Ty Madden at Cypress Ranch High School in the Houston suburbs (in addition to top 2019 picks JJ Goss and Matthew Thompson). Cowser might have been the fourth best prospect on that team when he graduated, but he had a massive freshman season (.361/.450/.602) and landed on the US Collegiate National Team. Despite an unspectacular sophomore season (.255/.379/.364), he remains one of the top bats in the college class with premium leadoff potential. Cowser is a true plus hitter, showing a combination of excellent knowledge of the strike zone with excellent bat to ball skills, which he proved with the US CNT. For now, his swing is geared more for line drives than fly balls, but evaluators see his athletic 6'3" frame and think that he could grow into average power, perhaps more if he starts trying to lift the ball. With plus speed and the ability to stick in center field, he may not need to do so in order to become an impact player at the big league level. If Cowser hits in 2021 like he did in 2019, he could fit right in with the Nationals at pick #11.

RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS [FL]
We've hammered home the point that the Nationals are traditional and love pitching, and Andrew Painter fits that to a tee. The Fort Lauderdale native has an extremely projectable 6'6" frame with a full, well rounded arsenal that he can command. Painter's fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, topping out around 95-96 without much effort, but promising more as he fills out his frame. He spins a downer curveball and a more lateral slider, both of which are consistently at least average while flashing above average regularly. With an above average changeup as well, Painter can attack you in a variety of ways. His extremely easy delivery enables him to hit spots as well as anyone in the high school class, and it also raises his floor considerably. Many scouts have likened him to Mick Abel, the first high school pitcher taken in 2020, who lasted until the Phillies at pick #15. It would probably take Painter stepping forward with one of his breaking balls to get the Nationals to bite on him over a guy like Madden or McLain, but if he does, he has as good a chance to land in Washington as anywhere else. The one thing that might hold the Nationals back is Mason Denaburg, their most recent first round high school pitcher, who has struggled to stay healthy since going 27th overall in 2018. Painter won't come cheap, either, holding a commitment to Florida.

RHP Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS [OK]
Right now, Painter is the top high school pitcher in the country, but a lot can change before July. Jackson Jobe was known as more of a hitter a year ago, but a loud summer rocketed him into the first round as a right handed pitcher. The 6'2" convert to pitching already sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, topping out around 95-96 just like Painter, but his secondary pitches are ahead of his counterpart. His slider is one of the best breaking balls in the class, coming in with immense spin rates and tight, late bite. His curveball and changeup both flash above average as well, and he's an athletic kid that fills up the strike zone. Given that he's still new to pitching, Jobe could continue to rise with a strong spring and more consistency, with the potential to become a legitimate big league starting pitcher. If he does, the Nationals could bite as early as pick #11, though one drawback is age, with the Oklahoma City native set to turn 19 in July. Committed to Ole Miss, he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore, which could raise his asking price further.

SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA]
We'll round it out with the most famous name in the prep class, shortstop Brady House. Scouts have been excitedly waiting for the Georgian to become draft eligible, as he brings a long track record of hitting against premium pitching. However, House's 2020 summer was just a bit more inconsistent than some scouts had hoped for, and a combination of that and prospect fatigue have allowed Jordan Lawlar, Marcelo Mayer, and perhaps even James Wood to overtake him in the prep bat rankings. Still, House brings a lot to the table. He shows easy plus raw power from the right side, power which he tapped consistently in games going back to when he was an underclassman. At times in 2020, his swing got out of whack as he tried to show off his pop and it came at the expense of his hit tool. The pure hitting ability is there if House trusts himself, and if he proves his summer was just a little blip, he might be gone before the Nationals pick. House is also a solid athlete with a chance to stick at shortstop with some hard work, but most scouts see him sliding over to third base and focusing on his big bat. Additionally, with a June birthday, he's relatively young for the class. Hailing from just outside the Atlanta suburbs, House has a commitment to Tennessee in hand, so if he slips too far past the Nationals with an uneven senior season, he could pull a Dylan Crews and head to school.

A few other possibilities
RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi
RHP Mason Black, Lehigh
OF Jud Fabian, Florida
SS Khalil Watson, Wake Forest HS [NC]
OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL]

2021 MLB Draft: Ten preseason picks for first overall

Some years, you have a clear first overall pick. Going back, that was the case in the past three drafts, when we saw Auburn's Casey Mize, Oregon State's Adley Rutschman, and Arizona State's Spencer Torkelson cruise to the 1-1 slot. As we head into the 2021 season, we have a frontrunner in Vanderbilt's Kumar Rocker, but he's far from a slam dunk and there are numerous players that could catch him. A lot can and will change between now and July 11th, but for now, here are ten names with a chance to land in Pittsburgh at first overall.

The Frontrunner: RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt
One of the top recruits to make it to campus in 2018, Kumar Rocker has only elevated his profile in the time since. Through 27 appearances (19 starts), he has 14-6 with a 3.06 ERA and a 142/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.2 innings against Vanderbilt's tough schedule, including a nineteen strikeout no-hitter of Duke in the 2019 Nashville Super Regional. The Georgian is an imposing figure at a listed 6'4", 255 pounds, and he brings the stuff to match. Rocker's fastball sits in the mid 90's and touches 99, and he adds in a plus-plus slider with devastating late bite and a well above average changeup with great sink. His command isn't pinpoint, but he fills up the strike zone consistently. His delivery has a few extra moving parts, but it's fluid and he repeats it extremely well. At this point, Rocker emphatically checks all the boxes you want to see at the top of the draft: high-end velocity, a true putaway pitch, a third potential plus pitch, durability, and track record. If we want to nitpick, which you have to at the top of the draft, he doesn't get a ton of swings and misses on his fastball and could be susceptible to the long ball in the majors.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Rocker is in the driver's seat, so he mostly needs to just maintain. That means staying healthy (obviously), continuing to fill up the strike zone, and continuing to miss bats at the ridiculous pace he has in the past. If he wants to truly separate from the pack, getting more whiffs on that fastball would be nice, as would advancing his command (ability to hit spots) to above average to match that above average control (ability to throw strikes).

Quietly Dominant: RHP Jack Leiter, Vanderbilt
Though Kumar Rocker is currently the favorite to go first overall, there are some who think he's the second best pitcher on his own team. Jack Leiter, like Rocker, arrived on campus as one of the top recruits in the country, and he turned heads by firing five innings of one hit ball against Evansville in his first college game. However, because he was a full year older than his graduating class, he's eligible as a sophomore and will turn 21 in April. While Rocker stands out for his stuff while showing strong pitchability, Leiter is the opposite in that he stands out for his pitchability while also showing strong stuff. On the shorter side at six feet tall, his fastball sits in the low 90's but plays up due to his elite ability to release the ball out front, giving him a combination of great extension and a very low (i.e. good) release height. He flips in a curveball in the 70's that already has the depth, and it could be a plus pitch if he continues to put more power behind it. There's a relatively new slider that flashes above average and could be plus in time, while his changeup plays average. Combine that with above average command and plus overall feel for pitching, and you have the building blocks of a big league starter who will stick around for a long time.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Leiter does have some work. Since he didn't graduate high school until he was well past his 19th birthday, he's only gotten to throw 15.2 innings in college so far. While nobody doubts his ability, he has to go out and prove it against Vanderbilt's SEC schedule. Leiter's lack of elite velocity (both on his fastball and his secondaries) might also turn off some evaluators, but he reportedly hit 97 with his fastball in fall practice and getting more consistently into the mid 90's this spring (he was more 90-94 as a freshman) could give him the final bump.

Leading the High School Class: SS Jordan Lawlar, Jesuit HS [TX]
Two years ago, a high school shortstop from the Dallas-Fort Worth Mid-Cities went second overall to the Kansas City Royals, and now Irving native Jordan Lawlar finds his stock at a similar level to Southlake native Bobby Witt Jr. Hailing from the same Jesuit High School program that produced Josh Bell, Kyle Muller, and golfer Jordan Spieth, Lawlar stands at the top of a strong class of high school bats. He stands out first and foremost for his strong feel for the game, making heads up plays consistently on both sides of the ball. He shows a clean swing from the right side, producing plenty of hard, line drive contact against the top arms in the class with ease. Much more than just a slap hitter, the 6'2" teenager has been growing into some legitimate power and now projects for 15-20 home runs per season, perhaps even more, to go along with those high on-base percentages. He's also one of the better defenders in the class and will stick at shortstop, making his bat look even better, and his plus speed means that you'd be hard pressed to find a hole in his game. The only knock on Lawlar at this point is his age, as a July birthday means he'll already be 19 on draft day. The rest of his profile is so strong, though, that it's hard to hold that against him.
What he needs to do to go first overall: He's so close, so the answer is not much other than maintain. Tapping his power more consistently while continuing to get on base at a high clip would certainly help, as it's the only place he doesn't grade out as true plus. Otherwise, if the Vanderbilt commit continues to steal the show this spring like he did over the summer, he's right there.

Right Behind Lawlar: SS Marcelo Mayer, Eastlake HS [CA]
While Jordan Lawlar has but some narrow daylight between himself and the rest of the high school class, Marcelo Mayer is right on his heels. Mayer, like Lawlar, comes from a powerhouse program, with suburban San Diego's Eastlake High School having produced Adrian Gonzalez, Casey Schmitt, and Keoni Cavaco. Also like Lawlar, he has great feel for the game and an easy plus hit tool, but comes with perhaps even more power projection due to an explosive, but clean, left handed swing and a projectable 6'3" frame. He's also an even better shortstop than Lawlar, but lacks his counterpart's plus speed on the bases. Personally, I like Mayer's ceiling even better than I do Lawlar's, with a real possibility of 25 home runs per season with high on-base percentages and potential Gold Glove defense at a premium position.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Mayer needs to tap his power in games. He's done so occasionally, but while he has the lead over Lawlar in terms of power projection, Lawlar has tapped his more consistently to this point. By closing the gap between his present and projected power, Mayer can help scouts feel more confident he'll tap his massive ceiling. Given that the Southern California commit already possesses exceptional feel for the barrel, nobody's all that concerned anyways.

Tools and Track Record: OF Jud Fabian, Florida
Jud Fabian graduated high school a year early and got to campus at Florida just before his 18th birthday, and now he won't turn 21 until multiple months after the draft. After a respectable freshman campaign (.232/.353/.411), Fabian broke out as a sophomore (.294/.407/.603, 5 HR in 17 games) and now has a pair of strong summers in the Cape Cod League and Florida Collegiate League under his belt. Listed at 6'2", he packs above average raw power into his athletic frame and taps it consistently in games due to his strong plate discipline. He's also an above average runner with the chance to stick in center field, meaning he can impact the game in as many ways as anybody in this class. If there's one concern for the Ocala native, it's the pure bat to ball skills, as he has some minor swing and miss concerns in the zone despite good pitch recognition and selection.
What he needs to do to go first overall: For me personally, cutting down on swing and miss in the zone would be a big plus. It's not something I'm particularly concerned about, but it brings what could be a 55 or 60 hit tool based on his plate discipline down to more of a 50. That could help him really showcase his power, and with all the walks he draws and his ability to steal bases and play up the middle, we could have a pretty complete ballplayer in that case that would be hard to turn down.

Loud Stuff, Quiet Track Record: RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State
Pitch for pitch, Kumar Rocker might not have the best stuff in this class – that may very well be LSU's Jaden Hill. Hailing from a small town outside Texarkana, Hill was another big recruit who has seen his stuff improve considerably in Baton Rouge. Originally a fastball/changeup pitcher, he touched the upper 90's in his few short stints in game action and still shows plus potential with his changeup. The difference between now and three years ago, however, is his slider, which has improved from a fringy offering to a true plus pitch that flashes plus-plus. The Arkansas native is also working on a cutter that flashes above average, rounding out his arsenal. Hill has never had trouble throwing strikes and now that his quarterback career is through, the 6'4", 235 pounder looks the part of a durable starter as well.
What he needs to do to go first overall: In one sentence, he needs his stuff to be just as loud at the end of the season as it is at the start. Injuries as a freshman plus the coronavirus shutdown have limited him to 21.2 innings, mostly as a reliever, so he simply has not proven that his stuff can hold up over long stretches. To this point, Hill has done nothing to prove he can't be a front of the rotation type, so he just needs to prove he can.

The Pure Bat: C Adrian Del Castillo, Miami
The title says it all here – there isn't a more professional hitter in this class than Adrian Del Castillo. The Miami native is a career .336/.430/.571 hitter for the Hurricanes with 14 home runs and significantly more walks (43) than strikeouts (32), showing the calm, confident, mature hitting ability that few can rival. Though he's just 5'11" and stockily built at that, he possesses above average raw power that he taps consistently in games to go along with his plus hit tool. Del Castillo's short-to-it, long-through-it swing is perfectly geared for putting barrel to baseball, combining with his plus plate discipline to help him execute as consistently as anyone. On defense, there are more question marks. He carries over his feel for the game behind the plate, showing good fundamentals and an accurate arm, but he lacks the athleticism and explosiveness you'd like to see in a catching prospect. He's working hard to improve back there, but it's far from a guarantee at this point.
What he needs to do to go first overall: As far as the bat goes, he just has to maintain. However, there needs to be improvement in the glove. If Del Castillo has to move off catcher, 5'11" is a little short for first base and his below average speed and unspectacular arm would limit him to a mediocre left field. If he can get a little smoother behind the plate, showing better ability to get down and block balls in the dirt/put a little more power on his throws, scouts can be more confident they won't have to accept a defensive liability at 1B/LF. Honestly, if he proves he can stick behind the plate this spring, consider Adrian Del Castillo a top-three candidate to go first overall.

The Former First Rounder: SS Matt McLain, UCLA
While Vanderbilt's Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter had first round pedigree coming out of high school, Matt McLain was actually drafted 25th overall in 2018, but did not sign with the Diamondbacks. His freshman season was disappointing (.203/.276/.355), but since the calendar flipped to 2020, McLain has seen his stock explode. He hit .397/.422/.621 in thirteen games as a sophomore, then a ridiculous .436/.536/.773 with seven home runs over the summer in the California Collegiate League. The Los Angeles-area native appears slight in stature at 5'11", but he's an explosive athlete that churns out plus run times and hits for more power than you'd expect. His quick right handed swing enables him to make plenty of hard contact, also helping that power play up to average so far, with the chance to get to above average. He can be a bit choppy at shortstop but overall projects to stick there with a strong arm and plenty of speed. McLain's main drawback is a susceptibility to offspeed stuff, part of an overall aggressive approach that can limit his on-base percentages.
What he needs to do to go first overall: McLain will always be projected as a hit-over-power guy, so in order to make his way to the very top of the class, he'll naturally need to prove that hit tool is rock-solid. To do that, he'll need to lay off breaking balls out of the zone in 2021, and overall bring his walk rate up considerably. That walk rate is 6.7% for his career, so we'd really like to see something in the double digits in 2021 with a reduction in the strikeout rate.

The Next Texas Horse: RHP Ty Madden, Texas
Ty Madden has been trending up ever since his high school days in the Houston suburbs, where he was teammates with JJ Goss (Rays, comp round 2019), Matthew Thompson (White Sox, second round 2019), and Colton Cowser (Sam Houston State, likely first round 2021). Madden had a 3.40 ERA and a 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 42.1 innings as a freshman, then ramped that up to a 1.80 ERA and a 26/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 25 innings as a sophomore. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, topping out around 96-97 in games and as high as 99 in fall practice, and the pitch plays up further due to the tough angle and run he puts on it. His slider has been relatively inconsistent, shortening up at times but showing true plus at others. Madden also possesses one of the better changeups in the class, an above average pitch that is more consistent than his slider. His command has steadily improved and he has no trouble filling up the strike zone nowadays, and while some stabbing motion in the back of his delivery and a funky arm path worry some scouts, he has been durable to this point.
What he needs to do to go first overall: There aren't any giant leaps that need to be made. Rather, incremental improvements in various parts of his game could do the trick for the 6'3" right hander. Maintaining his low to mid 90's fastball over a full season, getting a little more consistent with that slider, and refining his command just a touch would all help. There's really not much to dislike in Madden's game, so he just needs to continue to prove it.

The Sleeper: RHP Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest
I don't think Ryan Cusick is one of the ten most likely players to go first overall, but it's not impossible and it's really fun to think about. Hailing from the same Connecticut boarding school, the Avon Old Farms School, that produced George Springer and 2020 Orioles second rounder Hudson Haskin, Cusick's 5.63 ERA and 98/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 innings highlight the up and down nature of his career in Winston-Salem. The Boston-area native has a wicked fastball that can touch 97-98 in games with great ride that makes it tough to square up, though he can dip into the low 90's fairly frequently. His slider flashes true plus, perhaps even plus-plus, but frequently flattens out into a below average pitch. He also throws an average changeup and can flip in a slurvy curveball. His command has been wildly inconsistent, from fringe average as a freshman to well below average as a sophomore (18 walks in 22.1 innings) and back to fringe average in summer ball. Cusick reaches his velocity pretty easily, and he's gotten more coordinated with his lanky 6'6" frame and explosive stuff.
What he needs to do to go first overall: A lot. Cusick took a big step forward with an exceptional summer in the Coastal Plain League (1.14 ERA, 40/9 K/BB), but he needs to continue to prove himself in the spring. The Pirates won't consider him unless he gets close to average command on a consistent basis, and his slider needs to take that last step forward and stop flattening out. That's all easier said than done, but if the draft were held to day, I don't think Cusick would be a factor in the top half of the first round.

Honorable Mentions

3B Alex Binelas, Louisville: Binelas had as loud of a freshman season as you can have (14 HR, .291/.383/.612), showing as explosive of a bat as any in the class. His lightning quick swing gives him massive raw power and elite exit velocities, while his strong feel for the barrel enables him to tap that power consistently in games. His swing can be a bit rigid, as can his actions at third base, so he lacks the up the middle projection you usually see with the first overall pick. The Milwaukee-area native also lacks the plus hit tool that Spencer Torkelson had, so for that reason, it's hard to envision a path to the very top of the draft.

SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA]: The most famous name in the high school class coming into the summer, House hasn't faltered so much as players like Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer have simply outperformed him. Coming from just outside the Atlanta suburbs, he shows plus raw power that he has consistently tapped in games against top competition. His hit tool has been more inconsistent, as he goes through stretches where he is completely unfazed by velocity and high-end breaking stuff, but at others he shows a bit more swing and miss than you'd like. The 6'3" shortstop's right handed swing could use a little fine tuning, as it's simple and explosive when he stays within himself but can get out of whack at times, and he'll need to learn to add loft regardless. House has a chance to stick at shortstop, but he might outgrow the position and move to third base.

OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL]: Wood has been one of the fastest risers in the class as he's proven his hit tool more and more. Growing up on the Maryland side of the DC suburbs, he transferred to the famous IMG Academy outside Tampa and it's paying off. The 6'6" giant has a very laid back playing style, showing up in a calm demeanor and a patient approach at the plate. When he swings, though, he unleashes huge raw power that comes from a combination of loft, strength, and extension in his left handed swing. He possesses a keen eye at the plate and won't chase bad pitches, though he can get himself into deep counts and swing and miss from there occasionally. An above average runner for now, he has a chance to stick in center field and could be a plus defender in right.

RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS [FL]
No high school right handed pitcher has ever gone first overall, and while that's unlikely to change in 2021, it's hard to find anything wrong with Andrew Painter. He's a towering 6'6" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball that tops out around 95-96, with that projectable frame promising more velocity. He adds a pair of good breaking balls in a downer curveball and a more lateral slider, neither of which is a true plus pitch but both of which are consistently at least average and flash above average. His changeup is the same story, playing at least average consistently and flashing above. Unlike most high school pitchers with his build, he's a polished strike thrower with an easy, simple delivery, making him the complete package at a young age. The next step, aside from staying healthy, will be refining at least one of his breaking balls into a plus pitch.

RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn
Fitts was one of the fall's biggest risers, pushing himself from a fringe-day one arm to a true first round talent. Mostly a swingman over his first two years at Auburn, the Birmingham-area native sat around 90 with his fastball and showed promise with his secondaries and command as a reliever. He earned a starting role over the summer and in the fall, where his fastball actually ticked up into the low to mid 90's, playing up due to the tough angle he puts on his pitches. His downer slider and nice splitter both flash above average, and as he did as a reliever, he throws strikes with all three pitches. With a durable 6'3" frame, he has all the starter traits necessary to project in the rotation long term, and he just needs to go out and prove it this spring.

2021 MLB Draft: an early look at the Big 12

Originally published on Prospects Worldwide on September 16th.

It’s always about projection this early in the draft process, but in 2021 that’s even more the case because we don’t have a full sophomore season to lean back on. That means for most players, aside from four brief weeks of action and whatever summer ball they played, we really just have their freshman seasons to look back on. Naturally, there are more arms that stand out at this point because it’s easier to spot upticks in stuff than improved plate discipline or power. That’s certainly the case in the Big 12, where nine out of the ten names on this list are pitchers. Overall, though, it’s a weak year for the conference at least for now, with only one first round prospect at this point (Ty Madden) and only four or five that fit into the top five rounds for now.

1. RHP Ty Madden, Texas

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’3″, 215 lbs. Born 2/21/2000. Hometown: Cypress, TX
2019-2020: 7-1, 2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 63/28 K/BB in 67.1 IP.

Easily the top prospect in the Big 12 for now, Ty Madden will take over for Bryce Elder (5th round, Braves) in leading a very talented Texas staff. The Houston-area native was strong as a freshman in 2019 (3.40 ERA, 37/24 K/BB) but took it to another level in the shortened 2020 season, putting up a 1.80 ERA and a 26/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings against a pretty strong non-conference schedule that included a gutsy quality start against a loaded Arkansas lineup. That was sandwiched around a strong run through the Cape Cod League as an underclassman in 2019 (3.33 ERA, 28/14 K/BB in 27 IP), and he’s looking to 2020 to put it all together.

Madden has a great pitcher’s frame at 6’3″ and with a low to mid 90’s fastball that can reach 96, he has the velocity to match. His best pitch might be his slider, though, bringing mid 80’s velocity and showing late, sharp bite that misses bats in bunches. He has great feel for the pitch and can manipulate its angle, which will serve him very well as his game continues to mature. Furthermore, he can morph it into a solid average curveball, though the breaking ball is at its best when it’s a true slider. Lastly, he brings an above average changeup that can flash plus at times, giving him multiple weapons.

All of that points to a career as a starter for Madden, but he will likely need a strong, full season in the Longhorns rotation in 2021 in order to prove it. His arm action is a bit funky, with a short stabbing motion in the back before he turns and fires to the plate. His strike throwing improved considerably from 2019 (13% BB rate) to 2020 (4.1%), to the point where scouts peg him with at least average command, which partially assuages those arm action concerns. The other side, of course, is injury risk, though he’s proven durable for Texas so far. Still, he’ll need to prove he can hold his velocity and command over a full season in the rotation to truly make scouts comfortable, as he won’t get the benefit of the doubt that guys with cleaner, more traditional arm actions receive.

2. LHP Jordan Wicks, Kansas State

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’3″, 220 lbs. Born 9/1/1999. Hometown: Conway, AR
2019-2020: 9-3, 2.85 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 112/30 K/BB in 110.2 IP.

While Ty Madden remains the top prospect in the Big 12, Jordan Wicks is easily the fastest riser. The Conway, Arkansas native announced his presence with a very effective freshman season for Kansas State with a 3.61 ERA and an 86/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 84.2 innings, but it’s what he’s done since then that has made scouts sit up and pay attention. Combining his shortened 2020 season with Kansas State with an exceptional run through the Northwoods League, Wicks is 5-0 with a 0.39 ERA, a 0.74 WHIP, and a 55/9 strikeout to walk ratio across 46 innings this calendar year – that’ll play.

There’s really not much to dislike with Wicks at all. Coming from a durable 6’3″ frame, he throws with clean arm action and gets a little bit of crossfire from a closed off delivery, hiding the ball well along the way. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and peaks around 93, nothing crazy but enough given the rest of his profile. His changeup is a plus pitch that has fooled hitters throughout his college career, coming in with great fading action to the arm side that plays especially well off his delivery. There’s a pair of breaking balls as well, though at this point, they play better off his other stuff than on their own.

The changeup is certainly his weapon, but his above average command combined with his deception makes everything play up significantly. Wicks’ name is gaining steam fast and he could be challenging Madden by the spring, with a pretty high floor already as a back-end starter. An uptick in either his velocity or his breaking stuff could push him into the back of the first round conversation, and an uptick in both (which is very plausible given his clean delivery and high spin rates) will put him right smack in the middle of it.

3. RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’2″, 210 lbs. Born 3/23/2000. Hometown: Willis, TX
2019-2020 (@ TX A&M/San Jac. CC): 6-0, 3.09 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 51/13 K/BB in 35 IP.

Brandon Birdsell was part of the best rotation in junior college baseball in 2019, with his San Jacinto rotation-mates Luke Little (Cubs, 4th round) and Mitchell Parker (Nationals, 5th round) both getting drafted. Birdsell was talented enough to warrant a draft selection as well and some saw him as the best prospect in that rotation, but he instead set his sights on building his stock across the state at Texas Tech. Having lost Clayton Beeter (Dodgers, comp round), Bryce Bonnin (Reds, third round), and John McMillon (Royals, undrafted), the Red Raiders rotation is wide open, and Birdsell is one of the frontrunners to stand out on yet another talented pitching staff in Lubbock.

If anything, the 6’2″ right hander has a power arm. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and has been trending upwards, hitting 97 in his final start of the abbreviated 2020 season. He backs that up with a rapidly improving slider that has tightened into an above average pitch, and it was a true weapon for him at San Jac. He’s also steadily refining his changeup, and with a durable frame, smooth delivery, and solid strike throwing ability, he is looking more and more like a mid-rotation starter.

Having thrown just 35 innings in his college career so far, there isn’t much of a track record here, but what he has shown in a small sample is as good as any arm in the Big 12. Going out and maintaining his positive trajectory in Lubbock in 2021 could send him flying up draft boards. Like Madden, he’s also from the Houston area, albeit a bit farther out.

4. RHP Micah Dallas, Texas Tech

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’2″, 205 lbs. Born 4/14/2000. Hometown: Aubrey, TX
2019-2020: 8-2, 3.44 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 107/29 K/BB in 91.2 IP.

Brandon Birdsell won’t be the only one looking to jump into that wide-open Texas Tech rotation. Micah Dallas was strong as a freshman in 2019 (7-2, 4.03 ERA, 84/28 K/BB) but was bumped back to the bullpen in 2020, where he was absolutely untouchable. In five relief appearances averaging more than three innings apiece, he struck out 23 batters over 15.2 innings while allowing just nine baserunners, including four shutout innings against Stanford. With Beeter and Bonnin gone, it’s hard not to see him reclaiming that weekend rotation spot alongside the newcomer Birdsell.

The North Texas native is fun to watch. His fastball sits in the low 90’s, topping out around 93, but you’re more likely to see him work off his offspeed pitches. His power slider is an above average pitch and he’ll throw it in any count, inducing some ugly swings and misses as hitters struggle to pick it up out of his hand. He’ll also use a solid average changeup that keeps lefties at bay, again with the conviction to use it whenever he sees fit. Dallas pounds the strike zone with an aggressive bulldog mentality that makes all of his pitches play up, which also helps is average command play up into above average control.

There are some reliever questions with Dallas, who has a stockier build at 6’2″ and throws with some effort. His delivery might need to be cleaned up a bit, but even at present he fills the strike zone very effectively. That bulldog mentality will fit really well in the bullpen should he be forced into that role, where he could more sustainably rely on that slider/changeup combination, but he won’t turn 21 until April and has plenty of time to refine his game. With his demeanor, power slider, and feel for pitching, he has every chance to do so. I’m probably one of the higher guys on Dallas at this point.

5. RHP Kolby Kubichek, Texas

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6′, 180 lbs. Born 11/28/1999. Hometown: Bryan, TX
2019-2020: 2-2, 5.21 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 23/17 K/BB in 27.2 IP.

Kolby Kubichek may have grown up in the heart of Aggieland, but he gives us our second Longhorn arm in the top four. While his college track record leaves something to be desired at this point, he piqued scouts interests with an exceptional run through the Cape Cod League as an underclassman in 2019, putting up a 1.77 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 41/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 35.2 innings against elite, older competition. Like his rotation-mate, the top ranked Ty Madden, he has a bit of an unconventional profile, and that’s exactly why scouts will be watching his starts in Austin very closely this year.

This is a very interesting pitcher to break down. Kubichek’s best pitch is his fastball, but it only sits around 90 and tops out around 92. He’s an old school pitcher that comes straight over top with his release point, which puts excellent sinking action on the pitch while running inside to right handed batters. When located, it’s extremely difficult to square up and do damage on, and it played especially well against wood bats on the Cape. His next best pitch is a rapidly improving changeup that he really gained feel for that summer, bringing great sinking and fading action that is extremely difficult to differentiate from his sinker. Lastly, he brings in a slider and a curveball that are more ordinary at this point.

There is really a lot to like with Kubichek, the overall package remains just a little bit light if you want to project him as a bona fide starting pitcher, at least for now. He’s tacked some strength onto his smaller six foot frame, but he still remains just little bit undersized. His command has improved, but it still remains average at this point and when you only throw 90, you’re going to need to hit your spots very consistently to survive in pro ball, even if your sinker has great movement. Lastly, the lack of a plus breaking ball limits his ceiling a little bit. He’s not going to get any bigger, so if scouts are going to be confident in projecting him as a starter on draft day, he’ll probably want to see either an uptick in his stuff or his command this spring. Still, there are no glaring holes in the profile, and he remains a very well-rounded pitcher who does a lot of things well on the mound.

6. RHP Riley Cornelio, Texas Christian

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’3″, 195 lbs. Born 6/6/2000. Hometown: Monument, CO
2020: 1-0, 0.87 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 6/7 K/BB in 10.1 IP.

Big 12 fans know that this list wouldn’t be complete without a TCU arm to follow in the footsteps of Nick Lodolo, Durbin Feltman, Brandon Finnegan, and the countless other arms I don’t need to name, and those who follow the draft will recognize Riley Cornelio’s name. Cornelio was a top draft prospect coming out of the Colorado Springs high school ranks in 2019, and thanks to a June birthday that made him very old for his class, he’s draft eligible again as a sophomore in 2021. That means he’ll have to put in a lot of work proving himself this year, because with the shortened 2020 season, he only has 10.1 college innings to his name with some very interesting numbers. Facing 40 batters, he allowed just three hits (.094 opponents AVG) but walked seven while striking out six and allowed three runs, only one of which was earned. In this case, the scouting profile fits in perfectly with the numbers.

Cornelio is a lanky 6’3″ righty with wicked stuff, but he’s still learning how to harness it. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s and tops out around 95, getting nice riding action along the way that routinely misses barrels. His curveball is a true plus pitch at its best, bringing wipeout action that played up immediately against college hitters last year. However, it can flatten out at times when he leaves it up, which is fairly often. There’s a changeup, though for now it’s his third pitch.

Cornelio creates a lot of deception with a crossfire delivery that hides the ball well, but a byproduct of starting so closed off and unfurling his body is that he regularly loses his arm slot and release point. That severely impacts his command, which probably grades out at a 40 at this point. As a two pitch pitcher with poor command, he carries tremendous relief risk, though as a draft eligible sophomore that has thrown 10.1 college innings, he hasn’t had much of a chance to prove himself anyways. That’s the downside of being old for your class. Given his lack of experience, it would not be surprising for him to come out in 2021 with a cleaner operation, in which case he could shoot up draft boards. For now though, we’ll have to wait and see, but that fastball/curveball combination is wicked.

7. CF Eric Kennedy, Texas

Bat: L. Throw: R. 5’11”, 200 lbs. Born 9/15/1999. Hometown: Tampa, FL
2019-2020: 3 HR, .305/.381/.403, 17 SB, 35/30 K/BB in 66 games.

The top position player prospect in the Big 12, Kennedy is also our third Longhorn on the list. There really isn’t much going on in terms of impact bats in this conference, especially if you’re looking for power, so the contact-oriented Kennedy rises to the top just based on his consistency. After hitting .310/.382/.418 with a very strong 23/21 strikeout to walk ratio as a true freshman in 2019, he followed it up with a solid, albeit unspectacular, start to the 2020 season with a .288/.380/.356 line and eight stolen bases through 17 games.

Kennedy isn’t a power hitter, but he does a lot of everything else well. The Tampa native is a plus runner, and he deploys that speed very well on the bases, swiping nine bags in eleven attempts as a freshman before going a perfect eight for eight as a sophomore. That speed will enable him to stick in center field as well, where his strong arm makes him a valuable overall defender. At the plate, he’s hit over power, employing a quick left handed swing to drive the ball around the yard and to the gaps. His patient approach combined with strong bat to ball skills means there is very little swing and miss in his game, and it gives him a high floor as someone who will for sure hit in pro ball. Whether you see Kennedy as anything more than a fourth outfielder, though, likely depends on how you project his power.

At 5’11”, he’s not the biggest guy in the world, and he hasn’t shown much even in the way of simple extra base power so far at Texas. Given his very strong feel for hitting, some swing changes to give him more extension could help him profile for 5-10 home runs per year or more, and he’ll have a chance to show more pure offensive impact in 2021.

8. RHP Ryan Bergert, West Virginia

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’2″, 200 lbs. Born 3/8/2000. Hometown: Canton, OH
2019-2020: 4-1, 2.30 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 68/19 K/BB in 58.2 IP.

Here is a guy who has just dominated everywhere he’s gone. As a true freshman at WVU in 2019, Ryan Bergert came out and posted a 1.80 ERA and a sharp 38/8 strikeout to walk ratio across 34 innings, and he followed that up with a 2.92 mark and a 30/11 K/BB in 24.2 innings in 2020. This summer, he was one of the best pitchers in the Northwoods League, too, with a 2.33 ERA and a 31/10 strikeout to walk ratio across 27 innings. Names like Madden, Kubichek, and Dallas are more recognizable in this Lone Star-centered conference but Bergert is quietly positioning himself as one of the best pitchers available.

Bergert’s numbers stand out, but he has the stuff to match. The 6’2″ righty usually works around 90, but he can reach back for 94-95 at times and his high spin rates help it play faster. He also adds in a really sharp curveball that doesn’t always have the finish he would like, but which flashes plus at his best. The Canton, Ohio native primarily works off those two pitches, but there is still some projection remaining in his frame and his above average command helps him profile as a starting pitcher. He’s going to want to refine that changeup a bit and an uptick in velocity would be nice as well, but you can’t argue with his track record against strong competition and he’s a sleeper to watch for the 2021 draft.

9. LHP Dalton Fowler, Oklahoma

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’5″, 190 lbs. Born 1/7/2000. Hometown: Arlington, TN
2019-2020 (@ NW Miss. CC): 10-2, 3.33 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 127/53 K/BB in 83.2 IP.

Despite losing all three weekend starters to the draft last year in Cade Cavalli (Nationals, first round), Levi Prater (Cardinals, third round), and Dane Acker (A’s, fourth round), plus its top pitching recruit in Dax Fulton (Marlins, second round), Oklahoma is bringing in a really talented pitching staff this year. A big reason for that is Northwest Mississippi CC transfer Dalton Fowler, who actually is actually a fairly similar pitcher to Fulton. Fowler was very inconsistent as a freshman in Senatobia, but was off to a hot start in 2020 with 39 strikeouts to just 20 baserunners allowed in 19 innings, and he could have been a sixth to tenth round draft pick in a normal draft. Instead, the Memphis-area native will head west to Norman and look to put it all together.

Like top recruit turned Miami Marlin Dax Fulton, Dalton Fowler is a lanky fastball-curveball lefty. He’s variously listed at 6’5″ or 6’6″ and at less than 200 pounds, he’s a true stringbean. Fowler’s fastball sits in the low 90’s and he’s gotten better at maintaining that velocity, so scouts are looking to see if he can push the upper end as well as he continues to fill out that big frame.

In the past, his curveball has fluctuated between below average and above average, but he’s gotten more consistent with the pitch and is flashing more above average breakers. There’s a changeup as well that’s coming along, and his command has improved from 40 grade to 45 grade. There is still considerable work to be done, but Fowler is extremely projectable and slowly but steadily trending in the right direction, and if Oklahoma’s coaching staff can help him put it all together, he has real impact starter potential. Consider him the high ceiling, low floor name in this group.

10. SS Hueston Morrill, Oklahoma State

Bat: R. Throw: R. 5’11”, 165 lbs. Born 11/27/1999. Hometown: Live Oak, FL
2019-2020: 4 HR, .276/.388/.406, 18 SB, 78/47 K/BB in 76 games.

Eight of the top nine prospects in the Big 12 are pitchers, but here at ten we’ll get to one more hitter, Oklahoma State’s jack-of-all-trades Hueston Morrill. Morrill, who like the other hitter on this list, Eric Kennedy, is a native Floridian, made an immediate impact in Stillwater with a .282/.390/.386 line and 12 stolen bases over 58 games as a true freshman in 2019. After a so-so run through the Cape Cod League that summer (.238/.299/.300, 26/6 K/BB), he started to show some pop as a sophomore with a slightly less balanced .258/.383/.470 line and a couple home runs in 18 games. Now, a very shallow crop of Big 12 position players gives him a chance to stand out in front of area scouts.

Morrill doesn’t have a standout tool, rather he does a lot of things very well, and steps forward in any area could send him flying up draft boards. Though his hit tool probably grades out as fringe-average at this point, he’s a patient hitter that works counts and draws walks, making evaluators comfortable with a 50 grade in that area. While he’s a bit undersized at 5’11” and 165 pounds, he has shown nice gap power throughout his career and was starting to tap into more impact as a sophomore in 2020. The swing can get a bit long at times, but he leaves the barrel in the zone for a long time and that enables him to make consistent hard contact.

Additionally, Morrill is a good runner with 18 stolen bases in 21 tries so far with the Cowboys. On the other side of the ball, he played second base as a freshman then moved over to shortstop as a sophomore, and he has the quickness and arm strength to stick there. In fact, he actually showed a low 90’s fastball in high school and drew some interest as a right handed pitcher, which illustrates his upside at shortstop. Right now, because both his hit and power tools are fringy, he profiles more as a utility infielder than anything else, but continuing to tap that power like he’s capable of and tightening up his bat to ball skills a little bit could make a big difference.

Other Big 12 Interesting Options

Kansas State:

The Wildcats bring two interesting arms to the table this year in Carson Seymour and Connor McCullough. Seymour was draft-eligible last season, but he had just 28 collegiate innings under his belt and team’s weren’t comfortable with his track record in a five round draft. The 6’6″, 260 pound righty had seen a dramatic improvement in his stuff and hit 99 with his fastball while flashing two plus breaking balls in a slider and a curveball. However, the quality of his stuff was inconsistent and his command remained unrefined, and he’ll go into 2021 looking to prove he’s for real. McCullough, who like Seymour (Dartmouth) transferred from another four year school (Arkansas), dominated the Cape Cod League as an underclassman in 2019 with a 1.72 ERA and a 42/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 36.2 innings. He doesn’t have the same size or overpowering stuff as Seymour, tossing a fastball around 90 to go with a high spin curveball and a solid changeup. McCullough does beat Seymour when it comes to consistency and command, though, giving him less risk than his high upside counterpart.

Oklahoma:

The Sooners have three more names I’m interested in right now. Right hander Wyatt Olds shook off a mediocre freshman season to post a 1.89 ERA and a 29/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 innings as a sophomore, and that was against as tough of a non-conference slate as you’re going to get. He has a really funky delivery in which he reaches as far back as he can, bends his torso forward as if he’s going to come submarine, then comes back up to sling the ball from a high sidearm slot. The result is excellent extension that makes the ball extremely difficult to pick up, and that makes his low 90’s fastball and frisbee slider play up. His command has improved at Oklahoma, but it’s still fringy and he likely profiles as a reliever. Ben Abram is absolutely massive at 6’7″ and 255 pounds, coming in with average stuff but great pitchability. He commands his 90-ish fastball, above average 12-6 curveball, and decent slider and changeup very well, and with that durable frame, he profiles well as a #5 starter. Any small uptick in his velocity could send him moving up boards. On the other side of the ball, we have draft-eligible sophomore Connor Beichler, an undersized 5’9″, 155 pound second baseman with an extremely disciplined approach at the plate. He uses a line drive swing to spray the ball around the field, though he understandably doesn’t profile for a ton of power. He’s also reported to have a very strong work ethic.

Oklahoma State:

The Cowboys have an interesting sleeper that I’ll be watching this spring in Clemson/junior college transfer Justin Wrobleski. He’s a 6’1″ lefty with a low 90’s fastball that tops out around 95, and his loose arm puts plenty of run on the ball to make it tough to square up. Wrobleski adds in an above average slider that pairs well with his fastball in addition to a decent changeup, but he doesn’t have much of a track record and needs to tighten up his command. Lefties with the potential for two plus pitches will always garner attention though. There’s also righthander Kale Davis, who sits around 90 with his fastball and adds an above average curveball. At 6’4″, he has a great pitcher’s frame, and he has better command than Wrobleski. Scouts will be looking for an uptick in velocity in 2021.

Texas:

The Longhorns had three of the top five players on this list, and they still have more to watch even after promising righty Kamron Fields transferred to Texas Southern. Right hander Mason Bryant has as high of a ceiling as anybody on this list, standing 6’5″ and coming in with a mid 90’s fastball. He also adds an above average slider, but for now, the Austin native has very little track record in the Big 12, having thrown 12 total innings with a 9.75 ERA. His command is well below average at this point and he has a lot of work to do if he wants to get drafted as a starter. Right hander Dawson Merryman, unlike Bryant, has no chance to start in pro ball as a two pitch sidearmer. He tosses his fastball in the low 90’s, which is faster than many sidearmers, and can sling a frisbee slider across the plate as well. Hailing from the small town of Greenwood, Texas, which is just outside Midland, he’s a solid strike thrower and could move quickly through the minors. We also have right hander Andre Duplantier, the cousin of Diamondbacks pitcher and Rice alum Jon Duplantier, is around 90 with his fastball, adds a solid curveball, and was strong as a freshman last year with a 2.00 ERA and a 13/3 strikeout to walk ratio in nine innings. He lacks a plus carrying tool, but he does a lot of things well and could sneak up on some people.

Texas Christian:

Behind Cornelio, the Horned Frogs have a nice crop of players to watch. Right hander Johnny Ray could have gone in the sixth to tenth round last year had it been a normal draft, putting up a 2.53 ERA and a 21/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.1 innings. Nothing here is plus, but he’s solid average across the board with a low 90’s fastball, a good slider, and an average curveball and changeup to go with average command. Getting more innings under his belt and proving his strike throwing ability could put him in a similar range in 2021. Righty Marcelo Perez has my attention, though he’s a bit undersized at 5’10”. The Laredo, Texas native brings a low 90’s fastball, an above average slider with really nice, late bite, and a solid changeup, and he pumps it all out with relative ease. However, his lack of height and extension lead to a lot of relief questions. Outfielder Porter Brown hit just .237/.351/.316 over his first two seasons in Fort Worth, but in a conference without a ton of big bats, he stands out for his speed and plate discipline. Though he’s just 5’11”, his line drive bat profiles to add some impact as he gets more at bats under his belt.

Texas Tech:

Perhaps the deepest team in this conference when it comes to draft prospects, the Red Raiders had two of the top three names on this list and bring plenty more. Austin Becker was a big name on the 2017 summer showcase circuit leading up to the 2018 draft, but his command regressed in the spring, and his stay at Vanderbilt lasted just four innings in 2019. Transferring to Texas Tech, he struggled mightily with his command in 2020 and will now miss the 2021 season with Tommy John surgery. At his best, though, the 6’5″ righty shows a mid to upper 90’s fastball and an above average curveball and changeup, but he’ll have a lot of ground to make up once he comes back healthy. Mason Montgomery is a 6’2″ lefty that has caught some eyes, showing a low 90’s fastball with more in the tank. With a clean delivery and improving strike throwing ability, he’s trending in the right direction and of course, he’s left handed. We have Dylan Neuse, younger brother of A’s infielder Sheldon Neuse, who was draft eligible in 2020 but was not selected in the five round event despite a .355/.438/.487 slash line in 19 games. Just 5’9″, he has an explosive right handed swing that produces a lot of hard contact, but he can lose some of that leverage when he gets power conscious and likely profiles more as a contact hitter in pro ball. With plus speed to go with strong plate discipline, he could make a nice super-utility man. Max Marusak is even faster than Neuse, but the Amarillo native has hit just .244/.304/.341 in 55 games in Lubbock. His blazing speed will always keep him on the radar, but he makes a lot of weak contact and does not draw many walks. Scouts hope the skinny six footer can build on his strong bat to ball skills and innate athleticism in 2021.

West Virginia:

I just have one name for you here to follow up Ryan Bergert, and that’s Jackson Wolf. An Ohio native like his rotation-mate, Wolf exploded with a 1.05 ERA, a 0.74 WHIP, and a 27/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.2 innings in 2020, but went undrafted despite being eligible. He’s a 6’7″ lefty (immediate underline for scouts) that only sits in the upper 80’s with his fastball, occasionally creeping above 90, but he gets such great extension that it looks like he’s throwing 95. He has a fringy breaking ball and average command, so it’s unlikely he’ll remain a starter in pro ball, but I’m interested to see how much that fastball can tick up in relief.