1-23: SS Carson Tucker, Mountain Pointe HS (AZ)
CBA-36: RHP Tanner Burns, Auburn
2-56: LHP Logan Allen, Florida International
3-95: OF Petey Halpin, Mira Costa HS (CA)
4-124: SS Milan Tolentino, Santa Margarita HS (CA)
5-154: RHP Mason Hickman, Vanderbilt
The Indians have a brand and as usual, they stuck to it. They value youth, and in turn they picked up three high school bats, one of which (Petey Halpin) only turned 18 in May. They also like hit tools and guys who can stay up the middle, and their three high schoolers certainly have those traits as some of the better pure hitters in the class projected for SS, CF, and SS. They usually go the college route to find their arms, valuing track record on that side, and it's hard to find a much better combined track record than Tanner Burns (14-9, 2.86 career), Logan Allen (3.33 career), and Mason Hickman (11-0, 1.79 over last two seasons). Overall, I think they did pretty well with their six selections, with no picks popping out to me as total steals but all of them looking anywhere from solid to very good.
Full index of team profiles here
1-23: SS Carson Tucker, Mountain Pointe HS, AZ (my rank: 55)
The younger brother of Pirates infielder Cole Tucker, Carson has been a rising name all spring. He showed good feel for the game and sprayed around a lot of line drives last summer on the showcase circuit, but he lacked the physicality most teams were looking for and most in the industry wanted to see him head to Texas and get stronger. Well, that happened over the winter, and he came out in the spring bigger, faster, and stronger. The skinny 5'11" kid from Phoenix is now a 6'2" athlete, and this spring he was driving baseballs with much more authority around the field. Instead of line drive singles to all fields, scouts saw deep drives that turned into doubles, triples, and even home runs, and there is no reason to think he can't keep getting better. He has a good head on his shoulders as a kid with great feel for the game, and he plays a very solid shortstop. He likely won't be a Gold Glover out there, but he shows the instincts and athleticism to consistently make plays. 23 might have been a bit of a surprise for some people, but the Indians clearly buy into the trajectory and like where he's going. He projects for average power, perhaps 15-20 home runs per season, with good on-base percentages. If he does stick at shortstop, that's a very favorable offensive outlook, and he might be able to add more power and poke up above 20 home runs more often than not. Slot value is $2.93 million, and it remains to be seen how much it takes to buy him out of his Texas commitment. If he gets to Cleveland while his brother is still in Pittsburgh, the two cities are just two hours apart on Interstate 76. Pre-draft profile here.
CBA-36: RHP Tanner Burns, Auburn (my rank: 27)
Pitchers are unpredictable creatures, but sometimes, they develop exactly as expected. Burns found himself in the middle of top 50 conversation as a polished arm coming out of high school in Decatur, Alabama in 2017, but a firm commitment to Auburn meant he fell in the draft and didn't sign. He has performed since the day he stepped on campus, with the polish he showed as a high schooler coming in handy in college, putting together one of the most consistent track records of any 2020 arm. In three years for the Tigers, Burns is 14-9 with a 2.86 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 210/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 188.2 innings, and he's gotten better and better each year (ERA dropped from 3.01 to 2.82 to 2.42). Though he's on the smaller side at six feet tall, he's dominated the SEC with a power fastball in the low to mid 90's and a power curve that he can locate to both sides of the plate. The curve can be inconsistent and can get slurvy at times, earning more 55 grades than 60 on the 20-80 scouting scale, but it's a true 60 at its best. There's a changeup as well, but he hasn't needed it as much and it needs further refinement. Burns' strike throwing ability and strong lower half portend to an innings eating profile even if he is a bit shorter and stockier, and he has the one-two punch in that fastball and curveball to be more than just a #4/#5 starter. That seems to be his floor, with a ceiling as a #3 starter or, if we're really lucky, even a #2. The track record and stuff gives him a great combination of floor and ceiling outside the first round, and Cleveland is a great fit as an organization. Slot value is $2.05 million, which seems reasonable to me. Pre-draft profile here.
2-56: LHP Logan Allen, Florida International (my rank: 51)
The Indians already have a fastball/changeup lefty from Florida named Logan Allen, so why not make it two? This new Logan Allen, much like previous pick Tanner Burns, was a well-known prospect in the 2017 draft that headed to school instead of sign. Also like Burns, he's performed from day one. Through three years at FIU, he has a 3.33 ERA and a 246/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 183.2 innings, like Burns getting better and better each year (ERA dropped from 3.89 to 3.11 to 2.45). He also dominated in the elite Cape Cod League, where he struck out 24 and walked just three over 15 shutout innings. This sustained dominance has come despite not having the world's loudest stuff, as he sits just 91-92 with his fastball. His curveball has big, two plane break, but it can get loopy and lacks the hard, late bite that you'd like to see in a pitch like that. His best pitch is a plus changeup that disappears at the last second, one which he tunnels extremely well off his fastball to miss bats consistently. Allen is a plus strike thrower who locates his three pitches very well, and his ability to attack the zone makes everything play up consistently. At first glance, his stuff might look a little light for pro ball, but his sustained dominance (including the Cape Cod League) leads me to think you really shouldn't bet against him. Especially in this Indians system, that loves polished arms, he could do really well with a #3 starter ceiling. Slot value is $1.28 million. Pre-draft profile here.
3-95: OF Petey Halpin, Mira Costa HS, CA (my rank: 80)
On brand, yet again. Petey Halpin grew up in the Silicon Valley area, but moved down to the Los Angeles area for his senior year of high school. He's a hit over power outfielder with some projection and a lot of positive trajectory, one who should thrive in this system. A lean kid at six feet tall, he has a very fluid swing from the left side with nice whip and leverage, and he uses it to make consistent hard contact with some sneaky power. Depending on how much he bulks up as he grows into his frame, he could get to above average power eventually, but that could come at the expense of his above average to plus speed. Right now, he uses his good speed well and could be an above average defender in center field, but if he slows down at all, he might be more of an average defender down the road. Regardless, the hit tool plays and he should get to at least double digit home run power, so it might just be a matter of which direction the Indians want to develop him in – speedy center field type, or all-around impact hitter that slows down to about average speed as he develops. Regardless, it's a fun, broad set of skills to project on, and since he didn't turn 18 until May, he's relatively young for the class. Slot value is $610,800, though I imagine it might take a little bit more to woo him away from a Texas commitment. Pre-draft profile here.
4-124: SS Milan Tolentino, Santa Margarita HS, CA (my rank: 116)
For their next pick, the Indians went back to the Southern California high school ranks, picking Milan Tolentino out of high school in Orange County. The son of ex-major leaguer and current Angels broadcaster Jose Tolentino, Milan is yet another hit over power kid. He makes very consistent contact from the left side of the plate, peppering the ball around the field with great feel for finding the barrel. However, he has very limited present power and doesn't project to add a ton, using more of a slap-heavy approach than really trying to drive the ball with authority. That works for some hitters, though with Tolentino possessing just average speed, the Indians need to be confident he can not only just make consistent contact, but find the barrel consistently. Regardless, they're buying the defense here, as Tolentino projects to be an above average shortstop due to his plus instincts and feel for the game. That helps him make up for his lack of true foot speed, and the feel for the game should also help him start to hit for more impact as he gets stronger. It's probably a utility infield profile, but with some moderate upside here in the fourth round. Slot value is $460,000, but as with Halpin, it might take a little more to sign him away from a UCLA commitment.
5-154: RHP Mason Hickman, Vanderbilt (unranked)
The Indians finished off with another polished college arm, with Hickman bringing a great track record despite a lack of loud stuff. Since the start of the 2019 season, Hickman is 11-0 with a 1.79 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a 155/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 115.1 innings – exceptional numbers with a team that faces a very tough SEC schedule. However, the numbers are slightly less impressive upon further inspection, as Hickman actually served as the team's Tuesday starter in 2019, meaning in that span, he pitched a grand total of...four innings in actual SEC play. Still, the profile is interesting in and of itself. He's a huge, 6'6" right hander who grew up in the Nashville area, coming in with an upper 80's fastball that occasionally creeps above 90, a curve with good depth, a slider, and a changeup. None of his offerings are much better than average, and none will function as an out pitch in pro ball. The good news is that he possesses some of the best command in the 2020 class, spotting his pitches consistently to all four quadrants of the zone and keeping hitters off balance more often than not. He'll need to lean on that ability to mix and locate pitches in pro ball, because any mistakes could prove very costly given how light his stuff is. While he doesn't project to add a ton of velocity, the Indians do really well with these polished college arms, and just a little added crispness to his stuff could make him a steal at the back of the draft. If he doesn't take that step forward, though, I'm very worried about his ability to keep pro hitters fooled consistently enough. Slot value is $343,400, and I could imagine him taking a slight discount.
Undrafted: C Joe Donovan, Michigan (unranked)
After the Tigers drafted Ohio State catcher and Massillon native Dillon Dingler to open the second round, the Indians hit back by signing the catcher from That Team Up North in the undrafted free agent market. Joe Donovan, a native of the Chicago area, was one of the better defensive catchers in college baseball, holding down the starting spot on the Michigan team that made it to the College World Series in 2019. Unfortunately, for all the praise he gets behind the plate, he hasn't hit much, with just a .228/.316/.388 line, ten home runs, and an 82/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 92 games with the Wolverines. He's shown flashes of offensive impact at times, including a nice Cape performance two summers ago and nine home runs as a sophomore in 2019, but ultimately he's made too much weak contact and loses the strike zone just enough to where he doesn't profile as much more than a backup catcher. Still, that defense made him a prime target in the UDFA market, and at $20,000 the Indians got themselves a real bargain.
Other undrafted signings:
LHP Jaime Arias, Fresno State: 2-1, 3.75 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 22/3 K/BB in 24 IP
RHP Cade Smith, Hawaii: 1-0, 4.42 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 22/8 K/BB in 18.1 IP
SS Alonzo Richardson, Helix HS, CA (signed away from San Diego State commitment)
Showing posts with label Tanner Burns. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tanner Burns. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 24, 2020
Saturday, April 11, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Tanner Burns
RHP Tanner Burns, Auburn
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 12/28/1998.
2020 Stats: 3-1, 2.42 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 32/7 K/BB in 22.1 IP
Coming out of Decatur High School in northern Alabama, Burns was one of the better prep arms available in the 2017 draft and could have gone as high as the comp round had he been signable. Instead, he headed down south to Auburn and has been one of the steadiest contributors in college baseball ever since. As a freshman, he put up a 3.01 ERA and a 77/37 strikeout to walk ratio across 86.2 innings, a impressive line no matter the context but exceptional for a freshman in the SEC. He followed that up with an even better sophomore season in 2019, putting up a 2.82 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 101/23 strikeout to walk ratio across 79.2 innings, and he was off to a strong start again in 2020 before the season shut down. In what was likely the final start of his college career, he struck out ten and allowed just one hit across seven scoreless innings against Chicago State. Among college arms, Burns might have the most complete, consistent track record in a very deep class, as it's not often that a kid can come in and thrive in the SEC from day one.
A shorter, stockier kid at six feet tall, Burns is more about floor than ceiling. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can hold that velocity into the late innings, though he doesn't project to add much from here. He throws both a slider and a curveball, though the two can blend into each other and the slider is definitely the better pitch. That slider is his bread and butter, with low to mid 80's velocity as well as big, hard break. The curveball, meanwhile, is about five miles per hour slower and doesn't have quite the sharp bite of his slider, and it will need significant work if he wants to keep throwing it in pro ball. If he can get a bit more consistent with those two breaking balls, perhaps learning to intentionally manipulate the two pitches into a spectrum of sorts rather than falling victim to that unintentional blend, he'll rack up plenty of strikeouts at the big league level. Burns also throws a pretty decent changeup, and there's no reason to think it can't be at least an average pitch at the next level.
Burns doesn't have pinpoint command, but he hits his spots consistently and seems like the kind of guy who could wind up with plus command down the line. He has a very strong lower half and uses that strength to drive into his pitches, allowing him to hit 96 or 97 at times and maintain that low to mid 90's velocity throughout games and throughout the season. He's not the biggest guy in the world, but he has proven durable in college and should have no trouble adjusting to a 200 inning season.
Burns comes with a bit of a limited ceiling, but the right-now product is very good and he has a high floor as a #4 or #5 innings-eating starter and the ceiling of a dependable mid-rotation guy. In a draft class where a lot of guys could fall due to a lack of a track record, Burns should benefit from a career 2.86 ERA and 210/67 strikeout to walk ratio across 188.2 innings as an SEC starter. His likely draft range is the back half of the first round, though that track record could push him closer to the middle if teams prefer his dependability over wild cards like Garrett Crochet and Carmen Mlodzinski.
Game footage from Chicago State start
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 12/28/1998.
2020 Stats: 3-1, 2.42 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 32/7 K/BB in 22.1 IP
Coming out of Decatur High School in northern Alabama, Burns was one of the better prep arms available in the 2017 draft and could have gone as high as the comp round had he been signable. Instead, he headed down south to Auburn and has been one of the steadiest contributors in college baseball ever since. As a freshman, he put up a 3.01 ERA and a 77/37 strikeout to walk ratio across 86.2 innings, a impressive line no matter the context but exceptional for a freshman in the SEC. He followed that up with an even better sophomore season in 2019, putting up a 2.82 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 101/23 strikeout to walk ratio across 79.2 innings, and he was off to a strong start again in 2020 before the season shut down. In what was likely the final start of his college career, he struck out ten and allowed just one hit across seven scoreless innings against Chicago State. Among college arms, Burns might have the most complete, consistent track record in a very deep class, as it's not often that a kid can come in and thrive in the SEC from day one.
A shorter, stockier kid at six feet tall, Burns is more about floor than ceiling. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can hold that velocity into the late innings, though he doesn't project to add much from here. He throws both a slider and a curveball, though the two can blend into each other and the slider is definitely the better pitch. That slider is his bread and butter, with low to mid 80's velocity as well as big, hard break. The curveball, meanwhile, is about five miles per hour slower and doesn't have quite the sharp bite of his slider, and it will need significant work if he wants to keep throwing it in pro ball. If he can get a bit more consistent with those two breaking balls, perhaps learning to intentionally manipulate the two pitches into a spectrum of sorts rather than falling victim to that unintentional blend, he'll rack up plenty of strikeouts at the big league level. Burns also throws a pretty decent changeup, and there's no reason to think it can't be at least an average pitch at the next level.
Burns doesn't have pinpoint command, but he hits his spots consistently and seems like the kind of guy who could wind up with plus command down the line. He has a very strong lower half and uses that strength to drive into his pitches, allowing him to hit 96 or 97 at times and maintain that low to mid 90's velocity throughout games and throughout the season. He's not the biggest guy in the world, but he has proven durable in college and should have no trouble adjusting to a 200 inning season.
Burns comes with a bit of a limited ceiling, but the right-now product is very good and he has a high floor as a #4 or #5 innings-eating starter and the ceiling of a dependable mid-rotation guy. In a draft class where a lot of guys could fall due to a lack of a track record, Burns should benefit from a career 2.86 ERA and 210/67 strikeout to walk ratio across 188.2 innings as an SEC starter. His likely draft range is the back half of the first round, though that track record could push him closer to the middle if teams prefer his dependability over wild cards like Garrett Crochet and Carmen Mlodzinski.
Game footage from Chicago State start
Thursday, January 11, 2018
Top 10 Prospects to Reach NCAA - 2018
The MLB draft is different from the NBA and NFL drafts in that high schoolers are eligible to be drafted and often sign, greatly reducing the amount of talent in college baseball. If Major League Baseball functioned the same way as other sports, many of today's top prospects, including the Rockies' Brendan Rodgers (Florida State), the Blue Jays' Bo Bichette (Arizona State), the Indians' Triston McKenzie (Vanderbilt), the Astros' Kyle Tucker (Florida) and Forrest Whitley (Florida State), and the Phillies Mickey Moniak (UCLA) would be in college right now, making their mark on their programs and perhaps the College World Series. However, some of the top talent can sneak through, as we see with some of the top 2015 draft prospects, Florida star Brady Singer and TCU star Luken Baker. In this slow offseason, let's take a look at the top 2017 high school talent to reach the NCAA, according to my pre-draft rankings from June. The rankings denote where I ranked them among all draft eligible players, not just high schoolers.
1. OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA). 2017 rank: #38
I was much higher on Mitchell than most, and he chose to attend UCLA rather than accept a 14th round draft selection by the Oakland A's. Mitchell is a bit raw as a prospect, but he's an excellent athlete that reminds me of a left handed Hunter Pence. His swing is long and flat and needs work, but the bat is in the zone for a very long time, and looks a lot like Pence's swing. One reason his draft stock fell a bit was due to his diabetes, but if he can show he can manage it with the Bruins, he could emerge a first rounder. Pence didn't even end up at a Division I school right away, beginning his career at Texarkana College, but he mashed for two seasons at UT-Arlington (16 HR, .368/.421/.585) before teams took him seriously enough to draft him. Mitchell could have a similar career after he transitions to Pac-12 pitching.
2. RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn). 2017 rank: #43
Auburn was able to pry top draft prospect Davis Daniel away from the Cubs in 2016, and they got an even more highly regarded draft prospect in Tanner Burns. A pitcher like Daniel, Burns could have gone in the second round, but he fell to the 39th and chose the Auburn Tigers over the Yankees. Daniel didn't get going right away (5.89 ERA, 1.44 WHIP as a freshman in 2017), but Burns comes in much more polished and could make an impact quickly for the Tigers. While his stuff seemed borderline for MLB teams looking to draft him, it should translate right away to facing SEC hitters, with a low to mid 90's fastball, an inconsistent but at times great curveball, and a changeup that is coming along. He's not a control artist but can command it reasonably well, and in addition to working with Daniel, he'll join arguably the top pitcher in college baseball, Casey Mize, in what looks to be an exceptionally talented Auburn rotation featuring three big league prospects.
3. LHP Jake Eder (Vanderbilt). 2017 rank: #59
Vanderbilt always loses quite a few recruits to the MLB draft, but they usually land at least one top draft prospect, including Alonzo Jones and the late Donny Everett from the 2015 high school class. Eder is the biggest prospect to make it to campus since Everett, standing 6'4" and coming in with a low 90's fastball, some secondaries to work with, and very little in the command/mechanics department. Unlike Burns, he won't have an immediate impact on a Vandy rotation that already includes Patrick Raby (10-4, 2.73 ERA), Chandler Day (7-2, 3.78 ERA), and Drake Fellows (3-3, 3.30 ERA), but he may be Vanderbilt's 2020 ace if they can clean up his mechanics, which I believe are the root of the problem for his lack of command and consistent secondary stuff. At a school that has recently produced superstar pitching prospects Kyle Wright, Jordan Sheffield, Carson Fulmer, and Walker Buehler, there may be no better place for him to work on everything.
4. OF Daniel Cabrera (Louisiana State). 2017 rank: #73
Unlike Eder, Daniel Cabrera will be ready to contribute on day one in Baton Rouge. LSU seems to always have stars in its outfield, most recently Greg Deichmann and Jake Fraley, and Cabrera can join well regarded 2018 draft prospects Zach Watson and Antoine Duplantis in tracking down fly balls at Alex Box Stadium. Cabrera earned his draft stock more from having an advanced, polished bat than from having a high ceiling, which means he's ready to face SEC pitching now and shouldn't have too much trouble transitioning. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, but he knows himself as a hitter and can spray line drives all over the field. By his sophomore year, he could be hitting near the top of the LSU lineup and being the next in a line of great Tigers outfielders.
5. LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M). 2017 rank: #78
Our fourth straight SEC recruit lands in College Station, where he could be the next great Aggie arm. In the upper 80's, his fastball isn't fast enough to blow by SEC hitters yet, but he's very projectable and already has an advanced changeup and a good curveball. He seems like the kind of guy that could put it together and surprise everyone, turning into not just a star but a superstar at the NCAA level. He has a ways to go, but I get a good feeling with him.
6. RHP Bryce Bonnin (Arkansas). 2017 rank. #82
The Arkansas Razorbacks have to be excited about their pitching staff in 2018, because not only did highly regarded 2017 draft prospect Blaine Knight (8-4, 3.28 ERA) turn down the Rangers as a draft-eligible sophomore, but high schooler Bryce Bonnin is skipping out on the Cubs and joining Knight in Fayetteville. Our fifth straight SEC recruit on this list has a deadly fastball/slider combination, but unlike Burns and Lacy, I feel like he could use some time working out of the bullpen as a freshman. His loose arm works well with his stuff, but he does need to tighten his command and work on his changeup, where the bullpen could serve as the perfect practice ground. By his junior year, he could be one of the best arms in the SEC.
7. SS Greg Jones (UNC-Wilmington). 2017 rank: #84
Jones is a little different from the other hitters on this list in that a) he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2019 and b) he's joining a mid-major school, rather than a power five like the players above him. UNC-Wilmington will have less time time to work with him if he decides to go pro after his sophomore season, but his transition will also be easier due to the lower level of play of mid-major schools. Jones is very raw as a player as he experienced a late growth spurt in high school, but he is toolsy as they come with blinding speed and more power potential than you would expect from a skinny 5'11" shortstop. Due to the mid-major nature of UNC-Wilmington, Jones will have a chance to contribute right away, though we should expect some growing pains from him. He'll probably strike out a ton early, but the Seahawks are known for their offensive prowess and he'll be right in the middle.
8. RHP Chris McMahon (Miami). 2017 rank: #92
McMahon's arrival at Miami will be similar to Burns' at Auburn in that he should be ready to contribute early on. He throws low 90's and can command it fairly well, and his curveball and changeup are ready for the ACC now. Miami struggled last year, but landing a big recruit like McMahon could help spark the team in 2018, especially as they return most of their roster.
9. RHP Kyle Hurt (Southern California). 2017 rank: #98
USC hasn't been great at landing their top draft-eligible recruits, but they did grab a solid pitcher in Kyle Hurt. Like UNCW's Greg Jones, he'll be eligible for the draft as a sophomore, and like Jones, he does have work to do. He works with three good pitches in a low 90's fastball, a hard curveball, and a nice changeup, but his curve and change do lack consistency. He looked really good over the summer of 2016, but hurt his knee in the winter and had some bumps in his recovery. Hurt is a little bit of a wild card, but if he overcomes his inconsistency issues, he could be a durable starter for the Trojans.
10. RHP C.J. Van Eyk (Florida State). 2017 rank: #107
Florida State landed the top high school prospect to forgo signing in the 2016 draft, Drew Mendoza, and this year they grabbed the number ten guy, C.J. Van Eyk (as well as would-be #11 Shane Drohan, who just missed this list). Mendoza had a very successful freshman year (10 HR, .270/.400/.534), and Van Eyk will look to follow in his footsteps by making an immediate impact. More talented than a few of the guys above him on this list, Van Eyk only ranks so low because at draft time he was a Tommy John candidate, but it looks like he has avoided the surgery. Van Eyk throws a fastball in the low 90's and has an excellent curveball, though his command does tend to deteriorate has the throws harder. FSU will have two big things to work on with him: helping him bring his command with him into the higher velocity bands and building him up so he can be durable enough to last a full college season. Once that happens, he could be the next Seminole ace. He joins a very talented FSU pitching staff that includes highly regarded 2018 draft prospects Tyler Holton (10-3, 2.34 ERA) and Cole Sands (6-4, 5.40 ERA, but is better than the numbers say) as well as the aforementioned Drohan.
Edit: 3a. SS Brady McConnell (Florida). 2017 rank: #58
I missed McConnell by mistake when originally compiling this list, but he slotted one spot ahead of Vanderbilt's Jake Eder and should have been number three. McConnell is a slick-fielding shortstop with a smooth, powerful swing for a skinny guy, contracting and unloading on pitches with his legs. Unfortunately, because his swing relies on a fair amount of pre-pitch movement, he was a bit inconsistent in the spring and fell from a first round candidate to more of a second round talent, causing him to pack up and head to Gainesville instead of signing with an MLB team. Being that Florida, the reigning national champion, is still perhaps the most talented team in the country, McConnell will join a very talented infield that includes well-regarded draft prospects Jonathan India and Deacon Liput, and his spot may be open with the departure of Dalton Guthrie. We've heard more about the simply ridiculous pitching staff that includes potential first overall pick Brady Singer, fellow potential first rounder Jackson Kowar, and superstar closer Michael Byrne, as well as top recruit Hunter Ruth (see "Others" below), but this Florida team is as well-rounded, talented, and dangerous as college teams come.
Others: #118 LHP Shane Drohan (Florida State), #119 RHP Gavin Williams (East Carolina), #120 RHP Hunter Ruth (Florida), #122 C Philip Clark (Vanderbilt), #127 RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina)
1. OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA). 2017 rank: #38
I was much higher on Mitchell than most, and he chose to attend UCLA rather than accept a 14th round draft selection by the Oakland A's. Mitchell is a bit raw as a prospect, but he's an excellent athlete that reminds me of a left handed Hunter Pence. His swing is long and flat and needs work, but the bat is in the zone for a very long time, and looks a lot like Pence's swing. One reason his draft stock fell a bit was due to his diabetes, but if he can show he can manage it with the Bruins, he could emerge a first rounder. Pence didn't even end up at a Division I school right away, beginning his career at Texarkana College, but he mashed for two seasons at UT-Arlington (16 HR, .368/.421/.585) before teams took him seriously enough to draft him. Mitchell could have a similar career after he transitions to Pac-12 pitching.
2. RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn). 2017 rank: #43
Auburn was able to pry top draft prospect Davis Daniel away from the Cubs in 2016, and they got an even more highly regarded draft prospect in Tanner Burns. A pitcher like Daniel, Burns could have gone in the second round, but he fell to the 39th and chose the Auburn Tigers over the Yankees. Daniel didn't get going right away (5.89 ERA, 1.44 WHIP as a freshman in 2017), but Burns comes in much more polished and could make an impact quickly for the Tigers. While his stuff seemed borderline for MLB teams looking to draft him, it should translate right away to facing SEC hitters, with a low to mid 90's fastball, an inconsistent but at times great curveball, and a changeup that is coming along. He's not a control artist but can command it reasonably well, and in addition to working with Daniel, he'll join arguably the top pitcher in college baseball, Casey Mize, in what looks to be an exceptionally talented Auburn rotation featuring three big league prospects.
3. LHP Jake Eder (Vanderbilt). 2017 rank: #59
Vanderbilt always loses quite a few recruits to the MLB draft, but they usually land at least one top draft prospect, including Alonzo Jones and the late Donny Everett from the 2015 high school class. Eder is the biggest prospect to make it to campus since Everett, standing 6'4" and coming in with a low 90's fastball, some secondaries to work with, and very little in the command/mechanics department. Unlike Burns, he won't have an immediate impact on a Vandy rotation that already includes Patrick Raby (10-4, 2.73 ERA), Chandler Day (7-2, 3.78 ERA), and Drake Fellows (3-3, 3.30 ERA), but he may be Vanderbilt's 2020 ace if they can clean up his mechanics, which I believe are the root of the problem for his lack of command and consistent secondary stuff. At a school that has recently produced superstar pitching prospects Kyle Wright, Jordan Sheffield, Carson Fulmer, and Walker Buehler, there may be no better place for him to work on everything.
4. OF Daniel Cabrera (Louisiana State). 2017 rank: #73
Unlike Eder, Daniel Cabrera will be ready to contribute on day one in Baton Rouge. LSU seems to always have stars in its outfield, most recently Greg Deichmann and Jake Fraley, and Cabrera can join well regarded 2018 draft prospects Zach Watson and Antoine Duplantis in tracking down fly balls at Alex Box Stadium. Cabrera earned his draft stock more from having an advanced, polished bat than from having a high ceiling, which means he's ready to face SEC pitching now and shouldn't have too much trouble transitioning. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, but he knows himself as a hitter and can spray line drives all over the field. By his sophomore year, he could be hitting near the top of the LSU lineup and being the next in a line of great Tigers outfielders.
5. LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M). 2017 rank: #78
Our fourth straight SEC recruit lands in College Station, where he could be the next great Aggie arm. In the upper 80's, his fastball isn't fast enough to blow by SEC hitters yet, but he's very projectable and already has an advanced changeup and a good curveball. He seems like the kind of guy that could put it together and surprise everyone, turning into not just a star but a superstar at the NCAA level. He has a ways to go, but I get a good feeling with him.
6. RHP Bryce Bonnin (Arkansas). 2017 rank. #82
The Arkansas Razorbacks have to be excited about their pitching staff in 2018, because not only did highly regarded 2017 draft prospect Blaine Knight (8-4, 3.28 ERA) turn down the Rangers as a draft-eligible sophomore, but high schooler Bryce Bonnin is skipping out on the Cubs and joining Knight in Fayetteville. Our fifth straight SEC recruit on this list has a deadly fastball/slider combination, but unlike Burns and Lacy, I feel like he could use some time working out of the bullpen as a freshman. His loose arm works well with his stuff, but he does need to tighten his command and work on his changeup, where the bullpen could serve as the perfect practice ground. By his junior year, he could be one of the best arms in the SEC.
7. SS Greg Jones (UNC-Wilmington). 2017 rank: #84
Jones is a little different from the other hitters on this list in that a) he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2019 and b) he's joining a mid-major school, rather than a power five like the players above him. UNC-Wilmington will have less time time to work with him if he decides to go pro after his sophomore season, but his transition will also be easier due to the lower level of play of mid-major schools. Jones is very raw as a player as he experienced a late growth spurt in high school, but he is toolsy as they come with blinding speed and more power potential than you would expect from a skinny 5'11" shortstop. Due to the mid-major nature of UNC-Wilmington, Jones will have a chance to contribute right away, though we should expect some growing pains from him. He'll probably strike out a ton early, but the Seahawks are known for their offensive prowess and he'll be right in the middle.
8. RHP Chris McMahon (Miami). 2017 rank: #92
McMahon's arrival at Miami will be similar to Burns' at Auburn in that he should be ready to contribute early on. He throws low 90's and can command it fairly well, and his curveball and changeup are ready for the ACC now. Miami struggled last year, but landing a big recruit like McMahon could help spark the team in 2018, especially as they return most of their roster.
9. RHP Kyle Hurt (Southern California). 2017 rank: #98
USC hasn't been great at landing their top draft-eligible recruits, but they did grab a solid pitcher in Kyle Hurt. Like UNCW's Greg Jones, he'll be eligible for the draft as a sophomore, and like Jones, he does have work to do. He works with three good pitches in a low 90's fastball, a hard curveball, and a nice changeup, but his curve and change do lack consistency. He looked really good over the summer of 2016, but hurt his knee in the winter and had some bumps in his recovery. Hurt is a little bit of a wild card, but if he overcomes his inconsistency issues, he could be a durable starter for the Trojans.
10. RHP C.J. Van Eyk (Florida State). 2017 rank: #107
Florida State landed the top high school prospect to forgo signing in the 2016 draft, Drew Mendoza, and this year they grabbed the number ten guy, C.J. Van Eyk (as well as would-be #11 Shane Drohan, who just missed this list). Mendoza had a very successful freshman year (10 HR, .270/.400/.534), and Van Eyk will look to follow in his footsteps by making an immediate impact. More talented than a few of the guys above him on this list, Van Eyk only ranks so low because at draft time he was a Tommy John candidate, but it looks like he has avoided the surgery. Van Eyk throws a fastball in the low 90's and has an excellent curveball, though his command does tend to deteriorate has the throws harder. FSU will have two big things to work on with him: helping him bring his command with him into the higher velocity bands and building him up so he can be durable enough to last a full college season. Once that happens, he could be the next Seminole ace. He joins a very talented FSU pitching staff that includes highly regarded 2018 draft prospects Tyler Holton (10-3, 2.34 ERA) and Cole Sands (6-4, 5.40 ERA, but is better than the numbers say) as well as the aforementioned Drohan.
Edit: 3a. SS Brady McConnell (Florida). 2017 rank: #58
I missed McConnell by mistake when originally compiling this list, but he slotted one spot ahead of Vanderbilt's Jake Eder and should have been number three. McConnell is a slick-fielding shortstop with a smooth, powerful swing for a skinny guy, contracting and unloading on pitches with his legs. Unfortunately, because his swing relies on a fair amount of pre-pitch movement, he was a bit inconsistent in the spring and fell from a first round candidate to more of a second round talent, causing him to pack up and head to Gainesville instead of signing with an MLB team. Being that Florida, the reigning national champion, is still perhaps the most talented team in the country, McConnell will join a very talented infield that includes well-regarded draft prospects Jonathan India and Deacon Liput, and his spot may be open with the departure of Dalton Guthrie. We've heard more about the simply ridiculous pitching staff that includes potential first overall pick Brady Singer, fellow potential first rounder Jackson Kowar, and superstar closer Michael Byrne, as well as top recruit Hunter Ruth (see "Others" below), but this Florida team is as well-rounded, talented, and dangerous as college teams come.
Others: #118 LHP Shane Drohan (Florida State), #119 RHP Gavin Williams (East Carolina), #120 RHP Hunter Ruth (Florida), #122 C Philip Clark (Vanderbilt), #127 RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina)
Saturday, June 17, 2017
2017 Draft Review: New York Yankees
First 5 rounds: Clarke Schmidt (1-16), Matt Sauer (2-54), Trevor Stephan (3-92), Canaan Smith (4-122), Glenn Otto (5-152).
Also notable: Dalton Lehnen (6-182), Tristan Beck (29-872), Jake Mangum (30-902), Tanner Burns (37-1112).
The Yankees employed an interesting draft strategy here, leaning heavily on right handed pitching, as nine of their first eleven picks were right handed pitchers, an a tenth was a left handed pitcher. However, they did a good job in the early rounds of at least diversifying the types of pitchers they drafted (more on that below). It looks like they will try to cut a deal with first rounder Clarke Schmidt, and use that saved money to try to sign second rounder Matt Sauer and possibly fallers Tristan Beck and Tanner Burns, as Jake Mangum has said he will not sign. The Yankees have been pretty good at developing pitching lately, with homegrown guys like Luis Severino, Jordan Montgomery, Giovanny Gallegos, Chance Adams, and Domingo Acevedo making or looking to make an impact on the big league club. Additionally, former first rounders Ian Clarkin and James Kaprielian have run into their share of issues, but they are 22 and 23 respectively and far from being lost causes. With all this new pitching coming into the system, those ranks could grow even larger.
1-16: RHP Clarke Schmidt (my rank: 34)
The Yankees reached down the board for a money saver here, but Schmidt could easily end up providing first round value for New York in his own right. The South Carolina ace was 4-2 with a 1.34 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP when he went down with Tommy John surgery in April, potentially pushing himself into top ten consideration had he stayed healthy and maintained the performance. However, Schmidt had durability questions before the injury, and missing a year gives more grounds for concern. That said, he doesn't have too many weaknesses on the mound, with a low 90's sinker that will play well in Yankee Stadium and a slider/changeup combo that gives him one of the better arsenals in the class.
2-54: RHP Matt Sauer (my rank: 29)
As you can see, I ranked Sauer slightly higher than Schmidt, though Sauer will be much more expensive as a high schooler with a commitment to Arizona. Sauer is a raw right handed pitcher, though he has a very high ceiling. He has terrible mechanics, but he still runs his fastball into the mid 90's with a slider that is absolutely nasty on the right days. If he's so good while doing everything wrong, imagine how good he can be once he starts doing things right. Of course, with the need to rework his delivery, there is heightened risk, and he could very well end up in the bullpen if he continues to use lots of effort in his delivery.
3-92: RHP Trevor Stephan (my rank: 104)
Stephan is a 6'5" college righty from Arkansas, with one of the better fastballs in the draft. It sits in the low to mid 90's, and he commands it well to help it play up. His slider and changeup need work, though both secondaries showed progress this year and he could cut it as a starter if he continues with the trajectory he's currently on.
4-122: OF Canaan Smith (unranked)
No, not the country singer. A catcher in high school, the Yankees drafted their lone hitter of the first eleven rounds as an outfielder. According to Baseball America, Smith walked 57 times this year, which is among the top ten single season totals in high school history, so he obviously has a patient approach. There's thunder in his left handed bat, too, though he'll need to learn to get his upper and lower halves on time together. It's a very interesting offensive package, one that will require some fine tuning but one that could pay off in a big way down the road.
5-152: RHP Glenn Otto (my rank: 105)
Back to the right handed pitchers. Otto has been a well-known name for the Rice Owls for some time now, spending his entire career in the bullpen and serving the last two seasons as the team's closer. He wasn't quite as dominant as teams would have hoped for in 2017, which is why he slid to the fifth round, but he brings a plus fastball/curveball combination from a durable, 6'4" frame. Some teams think he can start, and I'm not sure how the Yankees feel, but command issues plus the lack of a third pitch will make that difficult. He could be in the Bronx bullpen fairly soon if he remains a reliever.
29-872: RHP Tristan Beck (my rank: 33)
Tristan Beck was in the running to be drafted in the top ten picks before he blew out his back and had to miss the season, but he still had a chance of going in the top 30-40 picks if he hadn't fallen due to (what my guess is) signability. A draft-eligible sophomore, if he doesn't sign with New York, he'll be able to return to Stanford as a redshirt-sophomore and still have plenty of leverage in next year's draft. When he's healthy, Beck shows a full arsenal that could make him an above-average MLB starting pitcher if not better, and he would have had one of the higher floors in this draft class had he not gotten hurt. Yankees fans should be excited if Beck signs, but I doubt it happens in the 29th round.
37-1112: RHP Tanner Burns (my rank: 43)
Burns is another right handed pitcher (sense the theme?) that fell due to signability, and he probably has even less of a chance of signing than Beck. Burns is a stocky, 6' Alabama high schooler who has as high a floor as any high school pitcher (this is the only time you will hear "floor" and "high school pitcher" in the same sentence). A very competent moundsman, he throws in the low 90's but accompanies his fastball with a solid curveball and a decent changeup. He commands it all well, but it looks like he's headed to Auburn, where he could turn himself into a Griffin Canning-type pitcher in three years.
Others: 6th rounder Dalton Lehnen has the distinction of being one of only two players to have been drafted out of a school in South Dakota this year, the other being SD State catcher Luke Ringhofer, who went to the Orioles in the 22nd round. Lehnen, out of Augustana College, has a profile very similar to that of Trevor Stephan, though Lehnen is left handed and less proven. Though I attend Virginia Tech, I have gotten surprisingly few chances to see 15th rounder Aaron McGarity throw, as he was limited to just ten appearances last year and seemed to rarely pitch when I was at the games this year. In the few times I did get to see the senior right hander throw, he ran his fastball into the low 90's and flashed a power breaking ball that could miss bats. At 6'3", 180 lbs, he is more projectable than the typical 22 year old, but he'll have to improve his command and prove he can hold up to a full season's work if he wants to cut it in pro ball. 30th rounder Jake Mangum ranked 143rd on my list as a speedy leadoff type at Mississippi State, but he has already announced that he will not sign, making any discussion here moot. Mangum's freshman season rocked the SEC, as he slashed .408/.458/.510 for the Bulldogs, but he slumped to .324/.380/.385 as a draft-eligible sophomore this year. 33rd rounder Jacob Stevens, you guessed it, a right handed pitcher, will likely return to school to re-establish his draft stock. He dominated as a freshman at Boston College last year (2.54 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 70/33 K/BB as a starter), but struggled as a draft-eligible sophomore this year (5.10 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 73/42 K/BB). If the Yankees sign him and get him back to his 2016 form, this is a steal in the late rounds.
Also notable: Dalton Lehnen (6-182), Tristan Beck (29-872), Jake Mangum (30-902), Tanner Burns (37-1112).
The Yankees employed an interesting draft strategy here, leaning heavily on right handed pitching, as nine of their first eleven picks were right handed pitchers, an a tenth was a left handed pitcher. However, they did a good job in the early rounds of at least diversifying the types of pitchers they drafted (more on that below). It looks like they will try to cut a deal with first rounder Clarke Schmidt, and use that saved money to try to sign second rounder Matt Sauer and possibly fallers Tristan Beck and Tanner Burns, as Jake Mangum has said he will not sign. The Yankees have been pretty good at developing pitching lately, with homegrown guys like Luis Severino, Jordan Montgomery, Giovanny Gallegos, Chance Adams, and Domingo Acevedo making or looking to make an impact on the big league club. Additionally, former first rounders Ian Clarkin and James Kaprielian have run into their share of issues, but they are 22 and 23 respectively and far from being lost causes. With all this new pitching coming into the system, those ranks could grow even larger.
1-16: RHP Clarke Schmidt (my rank: 34)
The Yankees reached down the board for a money saver here, but Schmidt could easily end up providing first round value for New York in his own right. The South Carolina ace was 4-2 with a 1.34 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP when he went down with Tommy John surgery in April, potentially pushing himself into top ten consideration had he stayed healthy and maintained the performance. However, Schmidt had durability questions before the injury, and missing a year gives more grounds for concern. That said, he doesn't have too many weaknesses on the mound, with a low 90's sinker that will play well in Yankee Stadium and a slider/changeup combo that gives him one of the better arsenals in the class.
2-54: RHP Matt Sauer (my rank: 29)
As you can see, I ranked Sauer slightly higher than Schmidt, though Sauer will be much more expensive as a high schooler with a commitment to Arizona. Sauer is a raw right handed pitcher, though he has a very high ceiling. He has terrible mechanics, but he still runs his fastball into the mid 90's with a slider that is absolutely nasty on the right days. If he's so good while doing everything wrong, imagine how good he can be once he starts doing things right. Of course, with the need to rework his delivery, there is heightened risk, and he could very well end up in the bullpen if he continues to use lots of effort in his delivery.
3-92: RHP Trevor Stephan (my rank: 104)
Stephan is a 6'5" college righty from Arkansas, with one of the better fastballs in the draft. It sits in the low to mid 90's, and he commands it well to help it play up. His slider and changeup need work, though both secondaries showed progress this year and he could cut it as a starter if he continues with the trajectory he's currently on.
4-122: OF Canaan Smith (unranked)
No, not the country singer. A catcher in high school, the Yankees drafted their lone hitter of the first eleven rounds as an outfielder. According to Baseball America, Smith walked 57 times this year, which is among the top ten single season totals in high school history, so he obviously has a patient approach. There's thunder in his left handed bat, too, though he'll need to learn to get his upper and lower halves on time together. It's a very interesting offensive package, one that will require some fine tuning but one that could pay off in a big way down the road.
5-152: RHP Glenn Otto (my rank: 105)
Back to the right handed pitchers. Otto has been a well-known name for the Rice Owls for some time now, spending his entire career in the bullpen and serving the last two seasons as the team's closer. He wasn't quite as dominant as teams would have hoped for in 2017, which is why he slid to the fifth round, but he brings a plus fastball/curveball combination from a durable, 6'4" frame. Some teams think he can start, and I'm not sure how the Yankees feel, but command issues plus the lack of a third pitch will make that difficult. He could be in the Bronx bullpen fairly soon if he remains a reliever.
29-872: RHP Tristan Beck (my rank: 33)
Tristan Beck was in the running to be drafted in the top ten picks before he blew out his back and had to miss the season, but he still had a chance of going in the top 30-40 picks if he hadn't fallen due to (what my guess is) signability. A draft-eligible sophomore, if he doesn't sign with New York, he'll be able to return to Stanford as a redshirt-sophomore and still have plenty of leverage in next year's draft. When he's healthy, Beck shows a full arsenal that could make him an above-average MLB starting pitcher if not better, and he would have had one of the higher floors in this draft class had he not gotten hurt. Yankees fans should be excited if Beck signs, but I doubt it happens in the 29th round.
37-1112: RHP Tanner Burns (my rank: 43)
Burns is another right handed pitcher (sense the theme?) that fell due to signability, and he probably has even less of a chance of signing than Beck. Burns is a stocky, 6' Alabama high schooler who has as high a floor as any high school pitcher (this is the only time you will hear "floor" and "high school pitcher" in the same sentence). A very competent moundsman, he throws in the low 90's but accompanies his fastball with a solid curveball and a decent changeup. He commands it all well, but it looks like he's headed to Auburn, where he could turn himself into a Griffin Canning-type pitcher in three years.
Others: 6th rounder Dalton Lehnen has the distinction of being one of only two players to have been drafted out of a school in South Dakota this year, the other being SD State catcher Luke Ringhofer, who went to the Orioles in the 22nd round. Lehnen, out of Augustana College, has a profile very similar to that of Trevor Stephan, though Lehnen is left handed and less proven. Though I attend Virginia Tech, I have gotten surprisingly few chances to see 15th rounder Aaron McGarity throw, as he was limited to just ten appearances last year and seemed to rarely pitch when I was at the games this year. In the few times I did get to see the senior right hander throw, he ran his fastball into the low 90's and flashed a power breaking ball that could miss bats. At 6'3", 180 lbs, he is more projectable than the typical 22 year old, but he'll have to improve his command and prove he can hold up to a full season's work if he wants to cut it in pro ball. 30th rounder Jake Mangum ranked 143rd on my list as a speedy leadoff type at Mississippi State, but he has already announced that he will not sign, making any discussion here moot. Mangum's freshman season rocked the SEC, as he slashed .408/.458/.510 for the Bulldogs, but he slumped to .324/.380/.385 as a draft-eligible sophomore this year. 33rd rounder Jacob Stevens, you guessed it, a right handed pitcher, will likely return to school to re-establish his draft stock. He dominated as a freshman at Boston College last year (2.54 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 70/33 K/BB as a starter), but struggled as a draft-eligible sophomore this year (5.10 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 73/42 K/BB). If the Yankees sign him and get him back to his 2016 form, this is a steal in the late rounds.
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