The Brewers' system has thinned in recent years, especially on the offensive side, where Brice Turang and Tristen Lutz look like the only impact guys at this point (though Mario Feliciano, Carlos Rodriguez, and Luis Medina could get there soon). They're a bit deeper on the pitching side, especially at the upper levels, where they have a really nice young core of arms that could fill a variety of roles. Trey Supak, Zack Brown, Ethan Small, and the breakout Dylan File are all great pitchability guys, while Aaron Ashby, Drew Rasmussen, and Devin Williams show great stuff. My personal favorite of this group is File, a 21st round pick out of Dixie State in 2017 who has turned himself into a legitimate mid-rotation force.
Affiliates: AAA San Antonio Missions, AA Biloxi Shuckers, High A Carolina Mudcats, Class A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, rookie level Rocky Mountain Vibes, complex level AZL and DSL Brewers (plus DSL Indians/Brewers).
Catcher
- Mario Feliciano (2020 Age: 21): A competitive balance pick out of Puerto Rico in 2016, Feliciano has come along slowly but broke out in 2019 with a .270/.323/.473 slash line, 19 home runs, and a 143/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games, mostly at High A Carolina. He's still an aggressive hitter, but he's gotten much better at getting his explosive barrel to the ball and tapping into his solid raw power. Combine 15-20 home run power with the fact that he can catch, and he just might be able to hit his way to a starting role as the Brewers' catcher of the future. He'll need to cut down on his swing and miss a bit and continue to refine his approach, but he'll play all of 2020 at 21 years old and proved he could handle High A pitching in 2019.
- Payton Henry (2020 Age: 22-23): Henry, who split catching duties with Feliciano at High A Carolina in 2019, has a fairly similar profile but has fallen behind his younger counterpart on the depth chart. In 2019, the 2016 sixth round pick out of a Salt Lake City-area high school slashed .242/.315/.395 with 14 home runs and a 142/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games, generating good power from his leveraged swing but also mediocre plate discipline. He might be a better defender than Feliciano, he has just as much power, and he has a similarly aggressive approach, but he's also a year and a half older and their bats are in essentially the same place in their development, giving Feliciano the edge. Long term, I think Payton will make a good solid backup.
- Keep an eye on: Nick Kahle
Corner Infield
- Lucas Erceg (2020 Age: 24-25): Erceg was a talented amateur who began his career at Cal, but he transferred to Menlo College for his junior year and went in the second round. The Brewers have been waiting for his explosive bat to break out, but it doesn't look like it will, and in 2019 he slashed .218/.305/.398 with 15 home runs and a 102/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games. He's got some raw pop from the right side, but he's never been the most consistent hitter and at the upper levels he hasn't really been able to get to that pop with consistency. Now that the Brewers have non-tendered Travis Shaw and lost Mike Moustakas to free agency, Erceg has a chance to compete for a bench spot in 2020, and I think he should be able to lock one down at some point. I just don't think he'll ever get to his power enough to start, and he probably settles in as a platoon bat or something of the like.
- Chad Spanberger (2020 Age: 24): In any other system, Spanberger would kind of fade into the crowd as a medium-hitting first baseman/outfielder, but he sticks out in now that he's in Milwaukee because he's one of their only viable corner infield prospects. In 2019, he slashed .237/.308/.399 with 13 home runs and a 117/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at AA in the Blue Jays system, then came over in an offseason trade for Chase Anderson. Those numbers kind of accurately show his major league projection, as he's shown some moderate power and knows how to get to it, but he probably won't post high on-base percentages. He hit just .213/.299/.276 against left handed pitching in 2019, compared to .247/.313/.451 against right handers, pointing to a career as a platoon bat.
- Keep an eye on: Luis Castro, Weston Wilson, Luis Silva
Middle Infield
- Brice Turang (2020 Age: 20): Early on in the scouting process for the 2018 draft, Turang was considered a potential first overall pick, but his "just solid" play failed to live up to the perhaps unfair expectations and he fell towards the back of the first round, where the Brewers scooped him up at pick #21. The Southern California high schooler had a strong first full season, slashing .287/.384/.376 with two home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 54/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 games at Class A Wisconsin, though his numbers took a bit of a dip after his promotion to High A Carolina (1 HR, .200/.338/.276, 9 SB, 47/34 K/BB in 47 games). The biggest things that stick out for Turang are his plate discipline and his speed, as he has a very strong understanding of the strike zone for a kid his age and that even held up at High A despite the fact that he was still just 19. His baserunning acumen played up, too, as he stole 30 bases in 35 tries this year including nine out of ten at the higher level. However, scouts were split over how much power he would develop from his skinny, six foot frame, and so far, it turns out not much. There's still some hope that he could fill out and hit 15-20 home runs per season, but the more realistic outlook would be about ten as he's more focused on spraying line drives around the field. At this point, it looks like he'll stick at shortstop, giving him true leadoff upside.
- Gabe Holt (2020 Age: 22): Gabe Holt parlayed a strong two year career at Texas Tech into a seventh round selection in 2019, then slashed .263/.317/.447 with a pair of home runs and a 2/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 11 games in the complex level Arizona League and at rookie level Rocky Mountain. At Texas Tech, he was more of a singles hitter than anything else, but he has great feel for both the barrel and strike zone and actually hit for a bit more impact than expected in his small sample in the Pioneer League. He's also plenty fast and should be able to steal a lot of bases, and he has experience both at second base and in the outfield. Consider him Brice Turang–lite while he works his way up as a potential high on-base utility man.
- Eduardo Garcia (2020 Age: 17-18): Garcia signed out of Venezuela for $1.1 million in 2018, then slashed .313/.450/.469 with a home run and a 9/6 strikeout to walk ratio over ten games in the Dominican Summer League before going down with a broken ankle. He's an extremely lanky kid at 6'2" with a whippy bat and some power projection if he can fill out, and he's a competent hitter at a very young age – he won't even turn 18 until July. He's also a great defender, one who should stick at shortstop, and in a system shallow on infielders, he shouldn't have much in his way. Garcia is all projection at this point but he has as much talent as anybody.
- Felix Valerio (2020 Age: 19): There's not a ton of public information on Valerio, a teenage Dominican who came over from the Mets as part of the package for Keon Broxton before the 2019 season. He slashed .319/.409/.433 in the Dominican Summer League in 2018, then kept up the good work in the Brewers system by slashing .306/.376/.389 with 16 stolen bases and a 21/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games in the complex level Arizona League. He's only 5'7", but he's extremely difficult to strike out, and he's not just a slap hitter because he can drive balls to the gaps and use his speed to do the rest. With the lack of over the fence power, it's probably hard to see Valerio starting in the majors, but he'll play all of 2020 at 19 years old and he's already proven to be able to put the barrel on just about anything.
- Keep an eye on: C.J. Hinojosa, Korry Howell, Cam Devanny, Felix Valerio
Outfield
- Corey Ray (2020 Age: 25): It hasn't exactly been smooth sailing for Ray, who was drafted fifth overall out of Louisville in 2016. Though he hit 27 home runs in 2018, he still hasn't posted an on-base percentage above .323, and in 2019 he slashed .218/.291/.363 with eight home runs and a 106/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games between AA Biloxi, AAA San Antonio, and complex-level rehab around a fractured hand. Ray tantalizes with tools, as he can fly on the bases and shows a smooth, powerful swing from the left side that could produce 20-25 home runs per season if he could just get to it enough. That's been the problem, as his swing and get long and he swings and misses far more than he should if he wants to be a big league regular. Ray will play all of 2020 at 25 years old, so he's still young enough to be a true prospect, and hopefully he can take a clean bill of health in 2020 and get that power stroke back that he had in 2018. Better pitch recognition will probably be the first step for that.
- Tyrone Taylor (2020 Age: 26): Taylor has a classic fourth outfielder profile, with good feel for the barrel and an ability to to get to his decent power. I'm not sure how much it will play up, because he never hit for much power until he got to AAA, where he played in extremely hitter-friendly environments. In 2019, he slashed .275/.342/.462 with 14 home runs and an 87/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 97 games, then went 4-10 with a pair of doubles in a brief major league debut. He's a good defender who should be able to handle all three outfield spots, and I could see him as a solid all-around fourth outfielder with a little pop and the ability to get on base at a decent clip.
- Tristen Lutz (2020 Age: 21): A competitive balance pick out of a Dallas-area high school in 2017, Lutz might have the highest ceiling in the system, even if he hasn't quite gotten to it yet. In 2019, he slashed .255/.335/.419 with 13 home runs and a 137/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games at High A Carolina. He generates a ton of leverage from his explosive right handed swing, and he gets to it decently often. Of course, he's got enough swing and miss that there's clearly still work to do. The hope is to get him to close the holes in his swing and hopefully generate 25-30 home runs per season down the line. Defensively, he projects to be above average in right field, and if he hits enough, he should start and could be an impact hitter.
- Thomas Dillard (2020 Age: 22): Dillard has a chance to provide good value after getting drafted in the fifth round out of Ole Miss in 2019, as he already slashed .249/.391/.407 with seven home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 53/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games, mostly at Class A Wisconsin. He's country strong and uses a whippy, leveraged swing to get to his power, though there are swing and miss questions. Interestingly, his mediocre run through SEC play hurt his stock heading into the draft, as it was thought the swing and miss in his game might hamper him against advanced pitching, but he hit well in a relatively aggressive assignment to Class A almost straight out of college. He's extremely patient at the plate, and at best he could produce solid, walk-inflated on-base percentages with 20-25 home runs per season, obviously with significant risk given his strikeout concerns. Defensively, he's almost certainly a left fielder, but the Brewers drafted him as a catcher and while he's yet to play there in pro ball, he did play behind the plate very occasionally at Ole Miss and that would really make his profile interesting.
- Carlos Rodriguez (2020 Age: 19): Rodriguez signed for $1.36 million in 2017, and he's outplayed his size to make himself one of the better outfield prospects in this system. In 2019, he slashed .329/.346/.416 with three home runs and a 22/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games in the complex level Arizona League and at rookie level Rocky Mountain, showing his typical great defense while hitting for a bit more impact than was originally expected. Clocking in at a listed 150 pounds, Rodriguez is far from the biggest guy in the world, but he consistently barreled the ball up against rookie level pitching at 18 years old and that gives him a very well rounded profile. Going forward, he'll need to get a bit more patient at the plate so he can start drawing some walks and boosting his on-base percentage, though strikeouts haven't been an issue and likely won't ever be because of his plus hit tool. Down the line, Rodriguez could challenge Brice Turang as a leadoff hitter if all breaks right.
- Joe Gray Jr. (2020 Age: 20): Gray has always been known for his big raw power, but he's also been known for his swing and miss issues, and those dropped him to the second round in 2018 coming out of a Hattiesburg, Mississippi high school. Indeed, it's been rough so far for Gray, as he slashed just .164/.279/.300 with three home runs and a 36/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 31 games at rookie level Rocky Mountain, which itself isn't the most aggressive of assignments. Gray has the physical tools – he's strongly built at 6'1" and can put on a show in batting practice, his power stemming from his strength and from his lightning quick hands, and his arm strength is among the best in the system to go along with solid speed for his size. Unfortunately, he has been next to helpless at the plate against minor league pitching, and the track record for high school hitters who struggle out of the gate like this isn't great. Still, there's hope that Gray could just be a late bloomer and develop into a similar prospect to Tristen Lutz.
- Luis Medina (2020 Age: 17): Medina got $1.3 million to sign out of Venezuela in 2019, bringing a ton of power projection in his 6'2" frame that already comes naturally at 16 years old. He gets great leverage with his left handed swing and understands how to hit, with the upside of 25-30 or more home runs per season if everything breaks right. Of course, he has to prove he can hit pro pitching, keeping in mind he was literally born in the year 2003, but man I really enjoy just watching video of his swing. You can find some here.
- Keep an eye on: Pablo Abreu, Je'Von Ward, Micah Bello, Larry Ernesto, Eduarqui Fernandez
Starting Pitching
- Zack Brown (2020 Age: 25): A fifth round pick out of Kentucky in 2016, Gray impressed in his first full season in 2017 then broke out in 2018 by posting a 2.44 ERA and a 116/36 strikeout to walk ratio at AA Biloxi. It was a bit rougher in 2019, where he had a 5.79 ERA, a 1.73 WHIP, and a 98/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 116.2 innings at hitter-friendly AAA San Antonio, but he did get slightly better as the season went on. Brown sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a curveball that can be an out pitch for him, also employing a changeup and holding pretty good command. Brown was better at controlling the zone in his big 2018, but he fell behind in the count more often in 2019 and that, combined with the juiced balls in the PCL, hurt his overall numbers. I'm not overly worried, and I think he'll regain that feel for the zone and develop into a solid #4 starter in 2020.
- Trey Supak (2020 Age: 23-24): Supak, like Brown, dominated in 2018 (2.48 ERA, 123/44 K/BB), but then he got off to a hot start in 2019 with a 2.20 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP and a 91/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.2 innings at AA Biloxi before a promotion to AAA San Antonio. Everything turned on its head there, as he ended up with a 9.30 ERA, a 1.67 WHIP, and a 27/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 30 innings with the juiced balls. He stands 6'5" and clocks in at a listed 240 pounds, but he's much more about pitchability than stuff. The big kid from La Grange, the small Texas town that produced longtime Red Hunter Bailey and Ohio State running back J.K. Dobbins, sits in the low 90's with his fastball, adds a pair of solid breaking balls, and a changeup, all of which he commands and mixes very well. It's hard to stay balanced in an at bat against Supak, and he even controlled the zone well while he got shelled in AAA this year. I think once he gets his feet set and learns to miss barrels with the major league ball, he could be a #3 or #4 starter and I like him better than Zack Brown.
- Aaron Ashby (2020 Age: 21-22): A fourth round pick out of a Missouri junior college in 2018, Ashby's strong debut that year hinted that the Brewers might have had themselves a steal. It's now looking even more like that after a very good first full season in which he posted a 3.50 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 135/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 innings at Class A Wisconsin and High A Carolina. Always known for his live left arm, Ashby has continued to sharpen his stuff and now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball while adding an absolute hammer of a curveball and an effective changeup, and perhaps most importantly, his command is improving. That will probably be the difference as to whether he ends up a #2/#3 starter or more of a #4/#5 – the command is approaching average, and if he can get it a tick or two above, he could be a legit impact arm. If not, Ashby still profiles well in the back of a rotation or as a power reliever.
- Dylan File (2020 Age: 23-24): This might be the biggest sleeper in the Brewers' system, but after his big 2019 season, very few are sleeping on him any more. File was a 21st round pick out of Dixie State in southern Utah – not exactly the kind of draft profile that creates headlines – but a solid first full season in 2018 (3.96 ERA, 114/28 K/BB in Class A) at least put him on the prospect map. Then in 2019, he posted a 3.24 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 136/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 147 innings at High A Carolina and AA Biloxi, actually pitching better at the higher level and dominating in the Southern League playoffs (14.1 IP, 1 ER, 15 K). He now sits in the low 90's with his riding fastball and adds a very good slider, a good curveball, and a changeup, and he commands them all very well. File's stock is shooting up and he could be a #3 starter in the relatively near future.
- Alec Bettinger (2020 Age: 24-25): Bettinger was a tenth round pick out of Virginia in 2017, and he broke out in 2019 with a 3.44 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 157/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 146.1 innings at AA Biloxi. The 6'2" lefty has a limited ceiling, but he's proven to be an extremely competent pitcher who can make his average stuff play up. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a pair of breaking balls and a changeup, none of which truly stand out as out pitches, but all of which work for him. With his command, he has a good shot at being a #4 or a #5 starter, especially with the Brewers' shallow starting pitching at the big league level and in the minors (though their best starting pitching prospects are concentrated near the top).
- Ethan Small (2020 Age: 23): Small dominated the SEC as a redshirt junior at Mississippi State in 2019, and he played that into a first round selection in the draft. He then dominated in his brief pro debut, posting a 0.86 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, 36/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 innings in complex ball and at Class A Wisconsin. He only sits around 90 with his fastball, but he adds a great changeup and a good curveball, all of which he commands and mixes so well that opposing hitters can't help but be off balance throughout their at bats. It's always been a question as to how he'll be able to handle more disciplined, higher level pro hitters, but his dominating debut that saw him reach full season ball is at least a positive sign that they might not figure him out either. Small's upside is that of a #3 or #4 starter but I wouldn't bet against him.
- Keep an eye on: Noah Zavolas, Max Lazar, Nick Bennett, Alexis Ramirez, Caden Lemons
Relief Pitching
- Devin Williams (2020 Age: 25): Williams was a decent starting pitching prospect up until 2019, when the Brewers shifted him to the bullpen and he took off. This year, had a 2.21 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an 82/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 innings, mostly at AA Biloxi, then he had a 3.95 ERA, a 1.76 WHIP, and a 14/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 13.2 major league innings. He added a tick of velocity to his fastball and now sits in the mid to upper 90's, also adding a good slider and changeup, all of which can miss bats. His command isn't the greatest, and that hurt him in the rotation, but in short spurts he can work around it and he should be a valuable reliever in 2020.
- Drew Rasmussen (2020 Age: 24-25): Typically, if you want to be considered a top prospect, it's not ideal to turn 24 years old during your first pro season. However, Rasmussen had a long history of injuries at Oregon State and pitched just 64 innings from his sophomore through senior seasons, then got drafted in the sixth round shortly before his 23rd birthday after missing entire senior year. On a pro mound for the first time in 2019, he posted a 3.15 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 96/31 strikeout to walk ratio 74.1 innings at Class A Wisconsin, High A Carolina, and AA Biloxi, making up for lost time by pitching most of his season at the higher level. He's a fastball/slider guy, sitting in the mid to upper 90's while adding a good slider, and his good command has kept him in the rotation for now, but his future is most likely in the bullpen, where he could hit 100. If he does transition to the bullpen in 2020, he should be up with the big league club at some point.
- Antoine Kelly (2020 Age: 20): The Brewers used their first pick in 2019 on Ethan Small, a Mississippi State hurler with excellent pitchability, then spent their second round pick on Antoine Kelly, a community college kid with a golden left arm and not much else. Kelly, out of Illinois, posted a 1.26 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 41/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 28.2 innings at complex level Arizona League, but he got shelled in his lone start at Class A Wisconsin, allowing six runs in three innings. Kelly sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and perhaps more impressive than his velocity is the fact that he throws with little to no effort from a 6'6" frame. However, he lacks pretty much everything else: secondaries, command, pitchability, etc. Fortunately, he at least showed that he can throw the ball into the zone if he wants to, as he walked just five batters in 28.2 innings in complex ball, but his in-zone command is well behind. Also fortunately, he'll spent all of 2020 at 20 years old, so he has plenty of time to develop, and the Brewers hope to turn him into either a back of the bullpen force (more likely) or into a good starting pitcher (more of a reach).
- Keep an eye on: Clayton Andrews, Phil Bickford, Michael Mediavilla
Showing posts with label Thomas Dillard. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Thomas Dillard. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 11, 2019
Sunday, June 9, 2019
2019 Draft Review: Milwaukee Brewers
First five rounds: Ethan Small (1-28), Antoine Kelly (2-65), Nick Kahle (4-133), Thomas Dillard (5-163)
Also notable: Nick Bennett (6-193), Gabe Holt (7-223), Brock Begue (11-343), Carter Rustad (23-703)
Aside from sticking mostly to the college side, the Brewers followed no patterns with this draft, mixing positions and projections to grab who they thought were the best players available. They traded the 41st overall pick to the Rangers for Alex Claudio and lost their third round pick (which would have been 104th overall) for signing Yasmani Grandal, so they weren't in a great spot to begin with, but they made the most of it by targeting mostly signable college players, and their only early round junior college pick signed at slot.
1-28: LHP Ethan Small (Mississippi State, my rank: 55)
Navy's Noah Song (now a Red Sox) and Missouri's T.J. Sikkema (now a Yankee) put together fantastic seasons this year, but nobody was quite as dominant against such stiff competition as Mississippi State's Ethan Small. In 17 starts through super regionals, Small went 10-2 with a 1.76 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 168/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 innings, and he put together some of his strongest performances against tough SEC lineups like Texas A&M (one baserunner in seven shutout innings), Alabama (15 strikeouts over six shutout innings), and Ole Miss (ten strikeouts over five shutout innings). So there's no question that he can miss the best bats in college baseball; the real question is his professional projection. Small, for one, isn't small; he's a 6'3" lefty from a small town halfway between Nashville and Memphis, Tennessee. He also missed all of 2017 with Tommy John surgery, so he's a redshirt junior this year and already 22 years old. Small only sits around 90 with his fastball and adds a great changeup and a good curveball, commanding everything very well and racking up strikeouts not by his pure stuff but by his ability to mix pitches and keep hitters off balance from the start of the at bat to the end. Obviously, hitters will get better and better as he moves through the minor leagues and without much projection or velocity, his ability to remain one step ahead of his opponents will be stretched, so it will be interesting to watch him as he works his way up. He has back-end starter projection, but his incredible feel for pitching gives him the chance to move very quickly through the minors and possibly outplay that projection. Slot value is $2.49 million, though I'm not sure it will take full slot to sign him.
2-65: LHP Antoine Kelly (Wabash Valley JC, my rank: 132)
The Brewers went with another college lefty in Antoine Kelly, but these two picks couldn't possibly be more different. While Small is an established SEC arm with fantastic pitchability and average stuff, Kelly is exactly the opposite. The 19 year old is a freshman at Wabash Valley Community College in Southern Illinois, where he struck out 112 batters in just 52.2 innings thanks to a mid 90's fastball that has simply overpowered his weak competition. It's not just the velocity that scouts love, because Kelly is a 6'6" lefty with plenty of projection and he generates that velocity with very little effort, giving him the chance to sit in the upper 90's consistently with pro coaching. However, that's the end of the positives here. Kelly has a mediocre slider that won't miss professional bats, and his changeup is virtually non-existent. At the same time, he struggles with his command (he also walked 31 batters in those 52.2 innings) and some scouts have questioned his mound presence, as he is 100% thrower and 0% pitcher. The Brewers are drafting the left arm here and the left arm alone, with the hopes of helping him develop a breaking ball, a changeup, and command. It's a very high risk proposition, but arms like his are few and far between and his upside is tremendous if he can make it click. The Chicago native has already signed right at slot value for $1.03 million.
4-133: C Nick Kahle (Washington, unranked)
As a one man crew, I can't get to everyone before the draft, and Nick Kahle was the next player up on my list to research when the day came. I guess every year it has to be somebody. Kahle himself is a somewhat unremarkable prospect, but he has few glaring weaknesses and plays a premium position, and sometimes the boring guys can produce plenty of value. Kahle had a breakout year at Washington this year, slashing .339/.506/.532 with eight home runs and a 28/59 strikeout to walk ratio, his excellent plate discipline standing out above all else. He is a very patient hitter who walked in a quarter of his plate appearances this season, then did damage when (/if) he finally did get his pitch. He's a stocky 5'10" and doesn't project for a ton of power, but there is some whip in his swing and a bit of added loft could help him get close to average in that respect, and with his plate discipline, he should be able to get to whatever power he develops in pro ball. He's just average defensively, but he has a strong feel for the game and should be able to stick back there, bringing his overall projection to that of a low-risk backup catcher. He's originally from the Los Angeles area and slot value is $422,300.
5-163: C Thomas Dillard (Mississippi, my rank: 98)
Now this is a pick I can get behind, and I find it much more interesting than the Kahle pick. Through the first game of super regionals, Dillard is slashing .315/.452/.553 with 14 home runs and a 51/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games for Ole Miss, showing big production in a big conference. However, there are questions as to how much his offensive profile will translate to pro ball, as his line dropped to just .273/.406/.391 in SEC play (though he homered off Arkansas ace and Mariners second rounder Isaiah Campbell in the first game of super regionals yesterday). The Mississippi native is country strong and produces his power from a whippy swing with loft, so it's a bit of a mystery as to why his power disappeared in SEC play, with his Cape Cod numbers (.235/.367/.363, 5 HR in 55 games over two seasons) not providing much solace. However, even more interesting than his offensive profile in the immediate future is his defensive one, because put simply, he's not a catcher. Ole Miss used him there sparingly as a backup to Cooper Johnson, but he played mostly outfield and the consensus is that his glove is a long ways off from working back there, especially for a collegian who will be 22 in August. If the Brewers can make it work for him back there, they may have a steal in the fifth round, as a lot of pressure would be lifted off his bat and he would have the opportunity to be one of the better-hitting catchers in the game. Defense aside, he does have some work to do at the plate, but he projects for 20-30 home runs and solid on-base percentages if he can iron out whatever kept him from his power in SEC play. Slot value is $315,400.
6-193: LHP Nick Bennett (Louisville, unranked)
I saw Bennett pitch in 2018 (read my notes from that day here), when he was in the midst of a sophomore year where he posted a 2.84 ERA and a 72/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 innings and came away very impressed, but 2019 has been much more rocky for him. A forearm injury slowed him down and his stuff wasn't the same when he came back, posting a 4.40 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 73/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings through super regionals. He bumped his velocity up into the low 90's this year before the injury and adds a big breaking curveball with plus depth, and his changeup is above average as well, but everything ticked down after the injury and he hasn't been the same pitcher. I haven't seen his medicals but based off the forearm strain/diminished stuff, those sounds like classic pre-Tommy John symptoms. Still, when healthy, he's a 6'4" lefty who attacks hitters with three above average pitches as well as a mediocre cutter/slider, and his command has been solid throughout his career. He projects as a back-end starter, and slot value is $244,900.
7-223: OF Gabe Holt (Texas Tech, unranked)
Holt hasn't been in Lubbock long, but the sophomore has made his presence known by slashing .348/.440/.485 as a freshman in 2018 then .320/.413/.438 with three home runs and a 28/37 strikeout to walk ratio through the second game of super regionals as a sophomore this year. He's much more of a slap hitter than an impact bat, but he's extremely fast and uses his speed to his advantage at every opportunity, totaling 57 stolen bases and countless more "extra" bases over his two seasons with the Red Raiders. He also has very strong plate discipline and puts the bat on the ball with ease, giving him a very good chance to hit for average and on-base percentage in pro ball even if he'll never hit for any kind of power. Though he's just a sophomore, the Central Georgia native the age of a college junior, making him eligible this year. Slot value is $192,900, and I think Holt is a steal in this part of the draft.
11-343: LHP Brock Begue (Cuyahoga JC, unranked)
I couldn't find much about Begue's actual skill set on the mound, but the junior college arm from Ohio has a fascinating story. After suffering a series of life-threatening seizures as an infant, he lost all feeling on the right side of his body and his parents were told he would never be able to move normally. Still, he worked past his challenges and now has full range of motion and coordination, good enough to make him an eleventh round pick as a 6'3" left handed pitcher. You can read more about his story here.
23-703: RHP Carter Rustad (Staley HS [MO], my rank: 125)
Rustad is likely unsignable here, or if the Brewers can manage to get a deal done, it will have to be way over slot to pull him away from his commitment to the University of San Diego. The 6'5" righty from a Kansas City high school is much more about projection than current stuff, as he is currently very inconsistent but looks like an impact arm at his best. Early in his starts, he can sit as high as the mid 90's with an above average changeup and a slider with good shape, but that velocity can dip as far as the high 80's late in his starts and the slider often flattens out. He has easy arm action and could one day sit at the upper end of his stuff, giving him a high ceiling as well as a ton of risk.
Also notable: Nick Bennett (6-193), Gabe Holt (7-223), Brock Begue (11-343), Carter Rustad (23-703)
Aside from sticking mostly to the college side, the Brewers followed no patterns with this draft, mixing positions and projections to grab who they thought were the best players available. They traded the 41st overall pick to the Rangers for Alex Claudio and lost their third round pick (which would have been 104th overall) for signing Yasmani Grandal, so they weren't in a great spot to begin with, but they made the most of it by targeting mostly signable college players, and their only early round junior college pick signed at slot.
1-28: LHP Ethan Small (Mississippi State, my rank: 55)
Navy's Noah Song (now a Red Sox) and Missouri's T.J. Sikkema (now a Yankee) put together fantastic seasons this year, but nobody was quite as dominant against such stiff competition as Mississippi State's Ethan Small. In 17 starts through super regionals, Small went 10-2 with a 1.76 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 168/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 innings, and he put together some of his strongest performances against tough SEC lineups like Texas A&M (one baserunner in seven shutout innings), Alabama (15 strikeouts over six shutout innings), and Ole Miss (ten strikeouts over five shutout innings). So there's no question that he can miss the best bats in college baseball; the real question is his professional projection. Small, for one, isn't small; he's a 6'3" lefty from a small town halfway between Nashville and Memphis, Tennessee. He also missed all of 2017 with Tommy John surgery, so he's a redshirt junior this year and already 22 years old. Small only sits around 90 with his fastball and adds a great changeup and a good curveball, commanding everything very well and racking up strikeouts not by his pure stuff but by his ability to mix pitches and keep hitters off balance from the start of the at bat to the end. Obviously, hitters will get better and better as he moves through the minor leagues and without much projection or velocity, his ability to remain one step ahead of his opponents will be stretched, so it will be interesting to watch him as he works his way up. He has back-end starter projection, but his incredible feel for pitching gives him the chance to move very quickly through the minors and possibly outplay that projection. Slot value is $2.49 million, though I'm not sure it will take full slot to sign him.
2-65: LHP Antoine Kelly (Wabash Valley JC, my rank: 132)
The Brewers went with another college lefty in Antoine Kelly, but these two picks couldn't possibly be more different. While Small is an established SEC arm with fantastic pitchability and average stuff, Kelly is exactly the opposite. The 19 year old is a freshman at Wabash Valley Community College in Southern Illinois, where he struck out 112 batters in just 52.2 innings thanks to a mid 90's fastball that has simply overpowered his weak competition. It's not just the velocity that scouts love, because Kelly is a 6'6" lefty with plenty of projection and he generates that velocity with very little effort, giving him the chance to sit in the upper 90's consistently with pro coaching. However, that's the end of the positives here. Kelly has a mediocre slider that won't miss professional bats, and his changeup is virtually non-existent. At the same time, he struggles with his command (he also walked 31 batters in those 52.2 innings) and some scouts have questioned his mound presence, as he is 100% thrower and 0% pitcher. The Brewers are drafting the left arm here and the left arm alone, with the hopes of helping him develop a breaking ball, a changeup, and command. It's a very high risk proposition, but arms like his are few and far between and his upside is tremendous if he can make it click. The Chicago native has already signed right at slot value for $1.03 million.
4-133: C Nick Kahle (Washington, unranked)
As a one man crew, I can't get to everyone before the draft, and Nick Kahle was the next player up on my list to research when the day came. I guess every year it has to be somebody. Kahle himself is a somewhat unremarkable prospect, but he has few glaring weaknesses and plays a premium position, and sometimes the boring guys can produce plenty of value. Kahle had a breakout year at Washington this year, slashing .339/.506/.532 with eight home runs and a 28/59 strikeout to walk ratio, his excellent plate discipline standing out above all else. He is a very patient hitter who walked in a quarter of his plate appearances this season, then did damage when (/if) he finally did get his pitch. He's a stocky 5'10" and doesn't project for a ton of power, but there is some whip in his swing and a bit of added loft could help him get close to average in that respect, and with his plate discipline, he should be able to get to whatever power he develops in pro ball. He's just average defensively, but he has a strong feel for the game and should be able to stick back there, bringing his overall projection to that of a low-risk backup catcher. He's originally from the Los Angeles area and slot value is $422,300.
5-163: C Thomas Dillard (Mississippi, my rank: 98)
Now this is a pick I can get behind, and I find it much more interesting than the Kahle pick. Through the first game of super regionals, Dillard is slashing .315/.452/.553 with 14 home runs and a 51/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games for Ole Miss, showing big production in a big conference. However, there are questions as to how much his offensive profile will translate to pro ball, as his line dropped to just .273/.406/.391 in SEC play (though he homered off Arkansas ace and Mariners second rounder Isaiah Campbell in the first game of super regionals yesterday). The Mississippi native is country strong and produces his power from a whippy swing with loft, so it's a bit of a mystery as to why his power disappeared in SEC play, with his Cape Cod numbers (.235/.367/.363, 5 HR in 55 games over two seasons) not providing much solace. However, even more interesting than his offensive profile in the immediate future is his defensive one, because put simply, he's not a catcher. Ole Miss used him there sparingly as a backup to Cooper Johnson, but he played mostly outfield and the consensus is that his glove is a long ways off from working back there, especially for a collegian who will be 22 in August. If the Brewers can make it work for him back there, they may have a steal in the fifth round, as a lot of pressure would be lifted off his bat and he would have the opportunity to be one of the better-hitting catchers in the game. Defense aside, he does have some work to do at the plate, but he projects for 20-30 home runs and solid on-base percentages if he can iron out whatever kept him from his power in SEC play. Slot value is $315,400.
6-193: LHP Nick Bennett (Louisville, unranked)
I saw Bennett pitch in 2018 (read my notes from that day here), when he was in the midst of a sophomore year where he posted a 2.84 ERA and a 72/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 innings and came away very impressed, but 2019 has been much more rocky for him. A forearm injury slowed him down and his stuff wasn't the same when he came back, posting a 4.40 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 73/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings through super regionals. He bumped his velocity up into the low 90's this year before the injury and adds a big breaking curveball with plus depth, and his changeup is above average as well, but everything ticked down after the injury and he hasn't been the same pitcher. I haven't seen his medicals but based off the forearm strain/diminished stuff, those sounds like classic pre-Tommy John symptoms. Still, when healthy, he's a 6'4" lefty who attacks hitters with three above average pitches as well as a mediocre cutter/slider, and his command has been solid throughout his career. He projects as a back-end starter, and slot value is $244,900.
7-223: OF Gabe Holt (Texas Tech, unranked)
Holt hasn't been in Lubbock long, but the sophomore has made his presence known by slashing .348/.440/.485 as a freshman in 2018 then .320/.413/.438 with three home runs and a 28/37 strikeout to walk ratio through the second game of super regionals as a sophomore this year. He's much more of a slap hitter than an impact bat, but he's extremely fast and uses his speed to his advantage at every opportunity, totaling 57 stolen bases and countless more "extra" bases over his two seasons with the Red Raiders. He also has very strong plate discipline and puts the bat on the ball with ease, giving him a very good chance to hit for average and on-base percentage in pro ball even if he'll never hit for any kind of power. Though he's just a sophomore, the Central Georgia native the age of a college junior, making him eligible this year. Slot value is $192,900, and I think Holt is a steal in this part of the draft.
11-343: LHP Brock Begue (Cuyahoga JC, unranked)
I couldn't find much about Begue's actual skill set on the mound, but the junior college arm from Ohio has a fascinating story. After suffering a series of life-threatening seizures as an infant, he lost all feeling on the right side of his body and his parents were told he would never be able to move normally. Still, he worked past his challenges and now has full range of motion and coordination, good enough to make him an eleventh round pick as a 6'3" left handed pitcher. You can read more about his story here.
23-703: RHP Carter Rustad (Staley HS [MO], my rank: 125)
Rustad is likely unsignable here, or if the Brewers can manage to get a deal done, it will have to be way over slot to pull him away from his commitment to the University of San Diego. The 6'5" righty from a Kansas City high school is much more about projection than current stuff, as he is currently very inconsistent but looks like an impact arm at his best. Early in his starts, he can sit as high as the mid 90's with an above average changeup and a slider with good shape, but that velocity can dip as far as the high 80's late in his starts and the slider often flattens out. He has easy arm action and could one day sit at the upper end of his stuff, giving him a high ceiling as well as a ton of risk.
Sunday, May 19, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: Catchers
Drafting catchers is extremely risky, because catching is both the most demanding and the most difficult job on the diamond. Most catchers are either considered bat-first or glove-first, and many struggle to develop the secondary trait because the rigors of catching are either a) too difficult to learn or b) holding back their bat. High school catchers are especially risky, but even college catchers flop with regularity, as we have recently seen with guys like Max Pentecost (2014 Kennesaw State -> Blue Jays), Austin Rei (2015 Washington -> Red Sox), Chris Okey (2016 Clemson -> Reds), and Logan Ice (2016 Oregon State -> Indians).
Tier I: Adley Rutschman, Shea Langeliers
While catchers tend to be risky, there are two excellent options right at the top, by themselves making this a banner year for college catching. Adley Rutschman is the best catching prospect in recent memory, topping even Joey Bart (2018 Georgia Tech -> Giants), Mike Zunino (2012 Florida -> Mariners), and Matt Wieters (2007 Georgia Tech -> Orioles). He is exceptional in every facet of the game, absolutely crushing Pac-12 pitching with 16 home runs, a .424/.575/.771 slash line, and a 36/66 strikeout to walk ratio through 51 games, showing power, contact, and plate discipline. Rutschman is as safe a bet as any player in this class to hit well in pro ball, and he could produce 30 or more home runs annually with high on-base percentages. Defensively, he produces plenty of positive value, showing great glove work and a strong arm behind the plate. On top of that, he is considered a strong leader and a hard worker, and in all likelihood the Orioles will pick him first overall. Meanwhile, in most other draft classes, Baylor's Shea Langeliers would be the top catching prospect available. Langeliers is a glove-first catcher with a cannon arm and very good glove work, likely better defensively than even Rutschman. His bat, however, is an interesting story. He was just decent at the plate in 2018 (11 HR, .252/.351/.496, 45/35 K/BB), and a hand injury at the beginning of the season looked to slow him down even further. However, he has been very good since returning, slashing .311/.376/.484 with six home runs and a 24/15 strikeout to walk ratio, and he figures to be an average hitter in the majors. While that's not the most exciting profile, Yadier Molina is still a potential Hall of Famer, though Langeliers figures to hit for a little more power with a little bit lower of an on-base percentage. He looks to be drafted somewhere in the top half of the first round, likely closer to the middle than the front.
Tier II: Ethan Hearn, Jonathan French
The top two high school catchers are pretty close to each other with their stock, though high school catchers in general come with a ton of risk and I'd be weary of picking either of these players on day one. I see Mobile product Ethan Hearn as the slightly better prospect, as he has shown plenty of power and loft at the plate, though he does have some swing and miss in his game. He's solid defensively with his strong arm but needs to clean up the rest of his game behind the plate. Overall, he has the tools to be a successful, productive catcher on both sides of the ball, but tweaking both sides of a catcher's game simultaneously is difficult and Hearn has plenty of risk. He looks to go in the second or third round. Over in the Atlanta area, Jonathan French has a fairly similar profile to Hearn. He shows power from a clean swing, though he also has swing and miss issues and I'm slightly more confident in Hearn's power than his. Defensively, he also has a strong arm and is ahead of Hearn with his overall glove work, but he still has work to do and also comes with plenty of risk. He's also a second or third rounder, but he more likely fits in the third.
Tier III: Kyle McCann, Carter Bins, Thomas Dillard
On the college side, these three come with work to do, just like Hearn and French, but they're also three years older. Kyle McCann plays for Georgia Tech and has absolutely mashed this year, slashing .296/.462/.699 with 22 home runs and a 63/54 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games, showing no doubt about his pure power but raising questions about his hit tool. Sure, McCann can take just about any ACC pitcher deep, but he has also struck out in a quarter of his plate appearances and slashed just .219/.309/.344 in the Cape Cod League last summer. His high walk rate might make teams feel a bit better about the swing and miss, but he's definitely not a lock to get to his power consistently at the next level. Defensively, he's just so-so, and there is a real chance he is forced to move to first base. In the best case scenario, McCann sticks behind the plate and goes on to mash 30 home runs per season in the majors, but in the worst case scenario he flairs out as a minor league first baseman who strikes out too much to be an impact offensively. He looks like a third or fourth rounder. Meanwhile, Fresno State's Carter Bins is McCann's polar opposite. He's a glove-first catcher who will stick behind the plate (though not to Langeliers' caliber), but his bat has been disappointing this year and he's far from a lock to produce in pro ball. He was pretty good as a sophomore (7 HR, .301/.372/.526, 41/17 K/BB), but he has regressed as a junior (5 HR, .263/.370/.389, 42/28 K/BB), showing improved plate discipline and that's about it. He has some loft and whip in his swing that could help him produce some power with wood bats, but the bat speed is closer to average and he might never hit more than 10-15 home runs per season. Combine that with some moderate swing and miss, and Bins looks more like a back-up catcher than a starter, though he has the tools to improve. Lastly, Thomas Dillard is more of a first base prospect, but he has caught some at Ole Miss and a team could choose to run him out there as a catcher and just see what happens. He is having a strong season with the bat for the Rebels, slashing .298/.440/.505 with ten home runs and a 39/50 strikeout to walk ratio through 56 games. He has plenty of pop in his right handed stroke, using his stocky frame and the whip and loft in his swing to drive balls out of the park. Additionally, his strong plate discipline helps cut down the swing and miss in his game to reasonable levels despite the power-oriented swing, and I see him as a better bet to hit in pro ball than both McCann and Bins. However, he is also the most likely of the three to end up at first base, which would put more pressure on his bat to perform. He projects as a 20-25 home run hitter with solid if unspectacular on-base percentages and figures to go in the third or fourth round.
Others: Cooper Johnson, Nick Kahle, Hayden Dunhurst
Tier I: Adley Rutschman, Shea Langeliers
While catchers tend to be risky, there are two excellent options right at the top, by themselves making this a banner year for college catching. Adley Rutschman is the best catching prospect in recent memory, topping even Joey Bart (2018 Georgia Tech -> Giants), Mike Zunino (2012 Florida -> Mariners), and Matt Wieters (2007 Georgia Tech -> Orioles). He is exceptional in every facet of the game, absolutely crushing Pac-12 pitching with 16 home runs, a .424/.575/.771 slash line, and a 36/66 strikeout to walk ratio through 51 games, showing power, contact, and plate discipline. Rutschman is as safe a bet as any player in this class to hit well in pro ball, and he could produce 30 or more home runs annually with high on-base percentages. Defensively, he produces plenty of positive value, showing great glove work and a strong arm behind the plate. On top of that, he is considered a strong leader and a hard worker, and in all likelihood the Orioles will pick him first overall. Meanwhile, in most other draft classes, Baylor's Shea Langeliers would be the top catching prospect available. Langeliers is a glove-first catcher with a cannon arm and very good glove work, likely better defensively than even Rutschman. His bat, however, is an interesting story. He was just decent at the plate in 2018 (11 HR, .252/.351/.496, 45/35 K/BB), and a hand injury at the beginning of the season looked to slow him down even further. However, he has been very good since returning, slashing .311/.376/.484 with six home runs and a 24/15 strikeout to walk ratio, and he figures to be an average hitter in the majors. While that's not the most exciting profile, Yadier Molina is still a potential Hall of Famer, though Langeliers figures to hit for a little more power with a little bit lower of an on-base percentage. He looks to be drafted somewhere in the top half of the first round, likely closer to the middle than the front.
Tier II: Ethan Hearn, Jonathan French
The top two high school catchers are pretty close to each other with their stock, though high school catchers in general come with a ton of risk and I'd be weary of picking either of these players on day one. I see Mobile product Ethan Hearn as the slightly better prospect, as he has shown plenty of power and loft at the plate, though he does have some swing and miss in his game. He's solid defensively with his strong arm but needs to clean up the rest of his game behind the plate. Overall, he has the tools to be a successful, productive catcher on both sides of the ball, but tweaking both sides of a catcher's game simultaneously is difficult and Hearn has plenty of risk. He looks to go in the second or third round. Over in the Atlanta area, Jonathan French has a fairly similar profile to Hearn. He shows power from a clean swing, though he also has swing and miss issues and I'm slightly more confident in Hearn's power than his. Defensively, he also has a strong arm and is ahead of Hearn with his overall glove work, but he still has work to do and also comes with plenty of risk. He's also a second or third rounder, but he more likely fits in the third.
Tier III: Kyle McCann, Carter Bins, Thomas Dillard
On the college side, these three come with work to do, just like Hearn and French, but they're also three years older. Kyle McCann plays for Georgia Tech and has absolutely mashed this year, slashing .296/.462/.699 with 22 home runs and a 63/54 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games, showing no doubt about his pure power but raising questions about his hit tool. Sure, McCann can take just about any ACC pitcher deep, but he has also struck out in a quarter of his plate appearances and slashed just .219/.309/.344 in the Cape Cod League last summer. His high walk rate might make teams feel a bit better about the swing and miss, but he's definitely not a lock to get to his power consistently at the next level. Defensively, he's just so-so, and there is a real chance he is forced to move to first base. In the best case scenario, McCann sticks behind the plate and goes on to mash 30 home runs per season in the majors, but in the worst case scenario he flairs out as a minor league first baseman who strikes out too much to be an impact offensively. He looks like a third or fourth rounder. Meanwhile, Fresno State's Carter Bins is McCann's polar opposite. He's a glove-first catcher who will stick behind the plate (though not to Langeliers' caliber), but his bat has been disappointing this year and he's far from a lock to produce in pro ball. He was pretty good as a sophomore (7 HR, .301/.372/.526, 41/17 K/BB), but he has regressed as a junior (5 HR, .263/.370/.389, 42/28 K/BB), showing improved plate discipline and that's about it. He has some loft and whip in his swing that could help him produce some power with wood bats, but the bat speed is closer to average and he might never hit more than 10-15 home runs per season. Combine that with some moderate swing and miss, and Bins looks more like a back-up catcher than a starter, though he has the tools to improve. Lastly, Thomas Dillard is more of a first base prospect, but he has caught some at Ole Miss and a team could choose to run him out there as a catcher and just see what happens. He is having a strong season with the bat for the Rebels, slashing .298/.440/.505 with ten home runs and a 39/50 strikeout to walk ratio through 56 games. He has plenty of pop in his right handed stroke, using his stocky frame and the whip and loft in his swing to drive balls out of the park. Additionally, his strong plate discipline helps cut down the swing and miss in his game to reasonable levels despite the power-oriented swing, and I see him as a better bet to hit in pro ball than both McCann and Bins. However, he is also the most likely of the three to end up at first base, which would put more pressure on his bat to perform. He projects as a 20-25 home run hitter with solid if unspectacular on-base percentages and figures to go in the third or fourth round.
Others: Cooper Johnson, Nick Kahle, Hayden Dunhurst
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