Thursday, September 28, 2023

The top 12 unsigned high school pitching prospects from the 2023 draft

The is the first time since I began making draft boards in 2015 that no high school pitcher in my top 50 prospects will be reaching campus. Guess NIL isn't as big of a draw as we thought it was. However, that doesn't mean we don't have a ton of talent reaching campus. Half of the names on this list have been clocked at 97 or higher already and five ranked in my top one hundred prospects. They're spread all around the country, with the top eleven names all going to different schools and only LSU pulling in a second pitcher right at the end. In the NIL era, it's also nice to see two mid major programs put names on this list in Dallas Baptist and Coastal Carolina, further establishing themselves as two of the preeminent mid major programs in the country. The SEC does still dominate this list with half of the names, while the ACC and the lame duck Pac-12 picked up two apiece.
Note, the ranking in parentheses denotes their ranking on my 2023 draft board.

1. (#52) LHP Cam Johnson, Louisiana State.
LSU gets everything they want, don't they? After producing the top two picks in this past MLB Draft and, they'll get the top high school pitcher in the country to go unsigned. Similar to Dylan Crews three years ago, Cam Johnson will come to Baton Rouge from the Florida prep ranks, though he's originally a Maryland native. Johnson has massive stuff, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and touching 98 with hard run and sink. He shows an above average slider that misses plenty of bats, though his changeup is a distant third pitch to this point and needs further development. The 6'5", 240 pound lefty is extremely physical, already looking the part of a power SEC arm. He previously looked raw on the mound and struggled with command, but he came out in 2023 looking much more fluid and balanced to work closer to average in that regard. Johnson can still yank his release point a bit when he gets tired and the LSU staff will look to help keep him on the positive trajectory he had been on in that regard. Of note, the Washington, DC-area product did miss time at the end of the season with elbow trouble, which may have been what scared teams off from giving him the multi-million dollar signing bonus his talent warranted. Beyond the injury, given the primarily two pitch arsenal and his still-developing command, there also remains considerable relief risk that he'll want to shed as he settles in in Baton Rouge. The Tigers' pitching staff is always incredibly deep and he'll join a youth movement alongside many other former prep studs like Gavin Guidry, Jaden Noot, Chase Shores, and Jake Brown (also on this list), all of whom were famous high school pitching prospects.

2. (#57) RHP Joey Volchko, Stanford.
Stanford is known throughout the West Coast as one of toughest schools to sign kids away from, and in 2023 they picked up the top unsigned pitcher west of the Mississippi. Similar to Cam Johnson above him on this list, Joey Volchko brings a power arm and then some. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 for now, coming in with tough overhead angle and even more explosive riding action that makes it a plus pitch. Volchko can also rip through a breaking ball with the best of them, showing a distinct curveball and slider that both look like above average pitches. He was trending up hard after a huge spring season at Redwood High School in Visalia, with all of his stuff showing a little extra hop, and at Stanford it will immediately be enough to get Pac-12 (then ACC?) hitters out. For now, the 6'4" righty has a lot of movement in his delivery, using his long limbs heavily to generate explosion off the mound. That impacts his command at this point and leads to relief questions in the long run, but for now, Stanford will look to compose him a little more fluidly. There is true Friday night upside here, and the Central Valley has done Stanford well recently with names like Brock Jones (Clovis) and Malcolm Moore (Sacramento). The Cardinal also lost four pitchers in the draft in Quinn Matthews (Cardinals, 4th round), Ryan Bruno (Diamondbacks, 7th), Joey Dixon (Astros, 7th), and Drew Dowd (Rays, 8th), so Volchko will be a welcome addition to a program that always pitches well.

3. (#81) RHP Liam Peterson, Florida.
Florida is another school that never hurts for pitching depth, but Liam Peterson has the upside to step to the forefront of that lauded staff. While Cam Johnson and Joey Volchko had loud springs that pushed their stock up, Peterson is the opposite. A member of the most talented high school pitching staff in the country at Calvary Christian in Clearwater alongside Blue Jays (way over slot) fourth rounder Landen Maroudis and fellow top prospect/brand new Arkansas Razorback Hunter Dietz, he established himself as the top prospect of the bunch in the summer of 2022. At the time, he was up to 97 with his fastball with plenty of hop while showing an above average sweeping slider and a newer changeup he was developing. Extremely projectable at 6'5", he moved well on the mound and looked like he had all the ingredients to turn into a frontline starter. However, his 2023 spring was much more up and down as he looked to be overthrowing at times and his breaking ball got slurvy. While the command was never pinpoint, with his uptempo delivery in the spring his strikes were sporadic and he looked much more like a reliever than a starter. Still, Florida is excellent at developing pitching and should know exactly how to get the best out of him. He still has the arm strength and the projectable, athletic frame, so if he can calm that delivery back down and find more consistency with his offspeed stuff, he can absolutely become a Friday night starter in Gainesville.

4. (#90) LHP Adam Hachman, Arkansas.
Adam Hachman finds himself in a similar position to Liam Peterson on this list. Last summer, he established himself as one of the best left handed pitchers in the class, perhaps second only to eventual Marlins CBA pick Thomas White, who signed for first round money. When he's healthy and on, he shows one of the most electric operations in the class. The fastball was up to 99 over the summer with serious hop from a vertical slot, with big time arm speed promising that one day he could live closer to that peak more consistently. The curveball and changeup have always been a bit behind, still searching for their identities a bit, though the curveball flashes above average and the changeup shows signs of becoming a solid pitch in its own right. Ultra projectable at 6'5", he's a great athlete on the mound with a very elastic delivery, though he's still growing into his body and can yank his release point. Unfortunately, his spring went about as poorly as you could imagine. He came out of the gate looking much more rigid, with his fastball sitting closer to 90, his offspeed stuff losing the progress it had made over the summer, and his command backing up significantly. Soon we found out why, as he went down with Tommy John surgery in April and missed the rest of the season. That means he may not pitch at all in his true freshman season in Fayetteville either, but the upside is tremendous when he hopefully comes back fully healthy in 2025. If it was truly just the injury that was holding him back this spring, the St. Louis-area product could front the rotation by his draft year. The stock may be down right now, but we're still talking about an explosive 6'5" lefty that has touched 99 in the past, which does not come around every year.

5. (#97) RHP Justin Lee, UCLA.
Two years ago, UCLA got the top unsigned high schooler in the class, Gage Jump, to campus. Unfortunately injuries completely derailed his time in Westwood and he wound up throwing just 16.1 innings in his two seasons, then transferred to LSU this year like everybody else. Two years after pulling Jump through the draft, UCLA is getting another metric outlier pitcher to campus, also from the Southern California private school ranks. Justin Lee may not come in with quite the same fanfare, but he's very interesting. The fastball velocity isn't overwhelming, sitting in the low 90's and touching 95, but that will tick up. Interestingly, it has near-perfect spin efficiency (meaning no spin is lost to gyro, or football-like, rotation) so as he adds velocity it will be very conducive to adding riding life. His splitter is his best offspeed pitch right now, diving off the plate and looking more advanced than the vast majority of prep changeups, while his slider is a tick behind but flashes some promise. The 6'3" righty moves extremely well on the mound, getting great extension and a low release while maintaining that extremely clean release contributing to that perfectly efficient fastball. I'd be very interested to see if the UCLA coaching staff decides to get creative with Lee, whose stuff works just a little differently than most other pitchers. He's very projectable and figures to add at least a few ticks of velocity as he fills out. The command is improving but it is still fringy for now, as he doesn't always repeat his delivery right and can get off line. If he can figure out his breaking ball and his command, he could come out a first round pick in three years.

6. (#110) RHP Chance Mako, North Carolina State.
One of the better prospects NC State has pulled through to campus in recent years, Chance Mako has a chance to do some special things in Raleigh even if he still has a few things to iron out. At his best, he already shows a low 90's fastball touching 96 with riding life while flashing above average with his slider and working in a tertiary changeup. At an extremely projectable 6'6", he figures to add a ton of strength in the near future as well, likely pushing the whole arsenal even further. However, there are some things he needs to work on. Presently, he tends to fade deeper into starts or into busy pitching schedules, losing a tick off his fastball and dipping closer to 90. While the slider is extremely promising and looks like it could be a plus pitch in time, it's presently very inconsistent and can get loopy. Mako needs to focus on filling out that massive frame, which will hopefully help him not only maintain but increase his peak velocity and become a true power pitcher. He's already made strides with his delivery, smoothing out most of the violence and becoming a better strike thrower in the process. The NC State coaching staff will want to continue to streamline him in that regard, and as he gets more consistent with his offspeed stuff in addition to his command, he could become the next Wolfpack ace. I like the way the Salisbury, NC native is trending and I think he'll be able to make the necessary adjustments to reach that ceiling and become an early pick in 2025, when he'll be just barely eligible as a sophomore.

7. (#114) RHP James Ellwanger, Dallas Baptist.
Dallas Baptist has turned itself into a real juggernaut lately as one of the best mid major programs in the country, and now we're starting to see them pull big time recruits through the draft. James Ellwanger is not too dissimilar a prospect to Chance Mako with a deeper arsenal and a tick less projection. His fastball velocity is currently all over the place, as he can touch 98 on his best days but can also dip into the upper 80's when he doesn't quite have it, though it's trending in the right direction. His slider is currently his best offspeed pitch, looking comfortably above average, while his distinct curveball is more of an average pitch and his promising splitter, although inconsistent, could be above average in time. Like Mako, he needs to grow into his large, 6'5" frame and maintain his fastball velocity a bit better, but he does have the benefit of more consistent offspeed stuff. At this point, his delivery can get a bit stiff at times, leading to fringy command, but he's athletic on the mound for the most part and that should get ironed out. Dallas Baptist just had six pitchers drafted and signed, an incredible feat for a school that does not compete at the Division I level for any other sport, giving him some room to earn meaningful innings quickly. He'll certainly want to do so because he's extremely old for an incoming freshman, already having turned 19 before he graduated high school, and he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2025.

8. (#126) LHP Zane Adams, Alabama.
We'll stick in the far northern Houston suburbs with Zane Adams, who played high school ball in the same county as James Ellwanger and is two days from sharing a birthday with him. He reminds me a bit of a left handed Will Sanders, who was just drafted by the Cubs in the fourth round out of South Carolina in this past draft, and even a natural, median progression at Alabama could make him a similar prospect in three years. Adams presently sits in the low 90's, touching 95 with some downhill plane and moderate life. Like Sanders, who also works downhill, he stands out more for his offspeed stuff than his heater. The Porter, Texas native has great feel for his above average curveball, effectively locating it to both sides of the plate. That's a separator for a high school lefty. He also shows off a quality changeup, giving him a very advanced three pitch mix from the left side. Adams is very projectable at 6'4" with a springy, athletic delivery, though he's still learning to keep it in sync consistently. His overall command is average despite his strong ability to spot his curveball. Adams is an advanced lefty that should be able to grab innings quickly in Tuscaloosa, and like Ellwanger, he'll certainly want to do so because he turned 19 as a high school senior and will be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2025.

9. (#131) RHP Cameron Flukey, Coastal Carolina.
For the second year in a row, Coastal Carolina will land a huge pitching recruit from this list. A year ago, they brought down Levi Huesman from the Richmond area after he ranked #110 on my list, though he struggled to a 9.36 ERA as a freshman and transferred to Vanderbilt for his sophomore season. They'll hope for better with Cameron Flukey, a very, very different prospect from Huesman. At this point, Flukey needs a lot of work and might not immediately take on a big role as Coastal went largely untouched through the draft, though they did lose a pair of important lefties (Huesman and the Ole Miss-bound Liam Doyle) to the transfer portal. He touches sits in the low 90's and touches 97 with great riding action at best, velocity which is trending up quickly. His curveball is still searching for its identity a bit, showing nice power and depth at times but at others humping early out of his hand. The changeup is a bit firm at this point, but that's not uncommon for prep pitchers from the northeast. The 6'6" righty stands out most for his physicality, already having begun to fill out his towering frame with more room yet to go. He moves very well on the mound, getting great extension towards the plate and putting extra hop on his stuff in the process. The arm action is a bit long right now, impacting his command, and the Coastal Carolina pitching staff may look to shorten that up a bit to simplify things. There is a lot to like here and Flukey could turn into an ace for the Chanticleers.

10. (#132) LHP Ethan McElvain, Vanderbilt.
Chris McElvain had a nice career at Vanderbilt, working his way into the weekend rotation by his junior year and overall putting up a 4.33 ERA over 44 appearances (17 start) from 2020-2022. In 2022, he found himself drafted in the eighth round by the Reds and in 2023 worked his way up to High A. Now, his brother Ethan will look to continue the family legacy in Nashville and has a shot to be drafted even earlier than Chris in a few years. While Chris was a 6', 205 pound right hander, Ethan is a 6'4" lefty who brings louder stuff and more upside to Nashville. His fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96, coming in with hard running action from a higher slot. His slider has steadily improved and now looks like an above average pitch, giving him a power two pitch mix to attack with. The changeup is a distant third pitch and certainly something he'll want to work on quickly when he gets to Vanderbilt. McElvain is very physical for his age with tons of arm strength and a durable frame. The delivery is a bit stiff at this time, but he doesn't have to work terribly hard to reach his velocity and he should be able to smooth that out a little in no time. If he can find a changeup and take the next step with his delivery, he has a workhorse starter profile that could work his way into Vanderbilt's crowded weekend rotation.

11. (#133) RHP Parker Detmers, Louisville.
Just like Ethan McElvain, Parker Detmers is also following a brother to school. Reid Detmers was untouchable during his sophomore and junior seasons at Louisville, went tenth overall to the Angels in 2020, reached the majors just a year later, and is now closing in on Chad Green as he looks to become the greatest pitcher ever to come out of the school. Those are massive shoes to fill, but Parker arrives on campus looking to establish his own legacy. Presently standing out more for his polish than his stuff, the stuff has begun to tick up and he's becoming a more complete prospect. The fastball has comfortably pushed above 90, now sitting in the low 90's and touching 94-95. Much like his brother, his curveball is his best pitch with sharp bite and grades out as plus. The changeup is coming along nicely as well, giving him a nice three pitch mix with a present strikeout pitch. The 6'4" righty repeats his clean, easy delivery very consistently, giving him above average command of both his fastball and his offspeed stuff and boding well for his potential to earn innings quickly at Louisville. You'd still like to see the fastball gain another tick or two, but it's a really nice foundation coming in so he won't have to divert his focus too much. There is certainly louder stuff on this list, but Detmers is the most polished.

12. (#134) LHP Jake Brown, Louisiana State.
Right at the end, LSU will sneak in another pitcher and become the only school with two names on this list. Like Parker Detmers, he stands out more for his pitchability than his stuff, though he has the benefit of throwing left handed. The fastball presently sits around 90, touching 94 at peak and coming in with flat plane from a lower slot. He shows a solid average slider and changeup, so there's no standout pitch in this arsenal. However, he commands everything well to all four quadrants of the zone, including the offspeed stuff, the latter of which is not common for incoming freshmen. The slider is also particularly promising given his feel for it and it should be an above average pitch soon. Standing 6'2", he has some projection but he's a skinny kid that will likely always be on the thinner side, so he's certainly going to be leaning on that command and pitchability going forward. While his average physicality and explosiveness may limit his upside a bit, the polish will give him a shot to earn meaningful innings quickly even on a staff like LSU that figures to be absolutely loaded once again. The Lake Charles-area native will also get a chance to hit for his home state team, adding to his potential impact in Baton Rouge.

Honorable Mentions
#143 RHP Luke McNeillie, Florida
#159 LHP Colton Hartman, Louisville
#160 RHP Gabe Gaeckle, Arkansas
#168 RHP Cameron Tilly, Auburn
#173 RHP Cole Stokes, Oregon

Tuesday, September 26, 2023

The top 5 unsigned college prospects returning to school for 2024

Now that I have finally completed all thirty team by team draft reviews, it's time to look at the guys who didn't sign. We'll start with the college players, and only five from my whole draft list went unsigned, one less than last year. All five are pitchers, and they all have different reasons for returning. Two are coming off major injuries, two had inconsistent seasons, and most are on the younger side for the class giving them better prospects if they return. Interestingly, Texas has the top two names on this list. Last year, of the six college players on my draft list to go unsigned, four were drafted in the top one hundred picks this year (two by the Mets) led by Ty Floyd at pick #38 to the Reds, one fell to the eleventh round, and one was not eligible. That's a very nice track record and puts the five names below in a good spot.
Note, the ranking in parentheses denotes their ranking on my 2023 draft board.

1. (#93) RHP Tanner Witt, Texas.
Tanner Witt is a tough fish to reel in. He was the seventh best high school pitcher to reach campus after the pandemic after ranking #87 on my 2020 draft list, and now he's the highest ranking college player to return to school since #10 Kumar Rocker after the 2021 season. Up on reaching campus, he immediately became a key piece out of the Texas bullpen in 2021, then looked sharp in his first two starts of 2022 to push himself into very early discussions for the 2023 first round. Unfortunately, he went down with Tommy John surgery and missed the rest of the season, then returned in May of 2023. Before the injury, he had been 7-0 with a 2.91 ERA and an 87/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 innings, but after he returned this spring, he put up a 10.97 ERA and an 8/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.2 innings. Heading to the Cape Cod League to try to rebuild his stock before the draft, he continued to struggle with an 11.93 ERA and an 11/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 14.1 innings. For that reason, he turned down the Orioles in the eighteenth round and will return to Austin for his senior season. When healthy, Witt is a pretty complete starting pitching prospect. His fastball sits in the low 90's and has scraped as high as 97 in the past, coming in with nice riding life from a high release point. He has great feel for a big 12-6 curveball with great depth, while he also shows a solid slider and an above average changeup. The big 6'6" righty repeats his delivery very well and has long had above average control, exuding polish as an underclassman. The stuff was flatter in 2023 as he looked rusty coming back from surgery, and because of that he got hit hard. Witt's delivery already lacks deception with a unique double tap of the ball out of and back into the glove, giving hitters an extra look, and its lack of moving parts make it easy to track the ball even if it helps his command. Fortunately, the Houston native was very young for the 2023 class and will pitch his entire senior season at 21 years old, putting him just a little on the older side for the 2024 draft class but still more or less age appropriate. The son of former first baseman Kevin Witt, who had a nice year with the Tigers in 2003, Tanner has tremendous feel for pitching and a great head on his shoulders, fully understanding what he needs to do to become a better pitcher. Hopefully, he'll shake off the rust and push his way back into the top couple of rounds for the 2024 draft while leading the Longhorns to another competitive season in the Big 12 alongside Lebarron Johnson.

2. (#106) RHP Lebarron Johnson, Texas.
Tanner Witt isn't the only star pitcher heading back to Austin. While Witt is the more famous name due to his long history as a draft prospect, Lebarron Johnson may actually have more upside in the long run. He didn't pitch as a freshman in 2021, worked out of the bullpen in 2022, then was primarily a starter in 2023 as he posted a 2.91 ERA and a 98/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.2 innings. I'm definitely one of the high guys on Johnson. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, touching 98 with extreme downhill plane that gives him a unique look. His power slider gets into the low 90's and looks like a plus pitch, while his nasty splitter gives him another weapon. It's really, really loud stuff that you don't come by every day. To this point, the Jacksonville native has been inconsistent with his command, especially with his offspeed stuff, but he's trending in the right direction there. Going back to Texas will give him an opportunity to add a little more polish, and it would be nice to see him incorporate something softer into his arsenal as well so he can change speeds more effectively. Like Witt, he was on the younger end for the class and will only turn 22 during the 2024 College World Series, so he won't be crazy old for the 2024 class. Back at school for his redshirt junior season, he'll look to prove his ability to start long term and with Witt gives the Longhorns one of the better, more experienced one-two punches in the country.

3. (#185) RHP Terry Busse, Georgia Tech.
Terry Busse began his career at powerhouse John A. Logan JC in Illinois, then transferred to Georgia Tech as a junior. "Scary Terry" was untouchable to start the 2023 season, kicking off with 12 shutout innings on just five hits, one walk, and 23 strikeouts against such opponents as Georgia, Notre Dame, and Auburn. Unfortunately that was the high water mark for his draft stock, as he faded over the course of the season and had a 7.12 ERA the rest of the way, finishing with a 5.10 ERA and a 58/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 42.1 innings overall. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with run and sink, playing up further from a deceptive slot. The slider looks like a plus pitch at its best with late diving action, and when he's on, those two pitches are untouchable. Early in the season, he was locating both pitches to both sides of the plate and keeping hitters well off balance, but that unraveled later on as the command slipped. He's 65 pounds lighter and doesn't throw quite as hard, but the profile overall reminds me of Brusdar Graterol especially with the mechanics. Busse has a disjointed-looking delivery in which he picks up and drops his front leg quickly before pausing then planting and whipping his arm around. It's not pretty, but it effectively transfers energy from his lower half to his upper half. With two pitches, a funky delivery, and the way he faded down the stretch, it's a pure relief profile. He'll go back to Atlanta to prove he can hold his peak stuff over longer periods of time. Unlike Witt and Johnson above him on this list and Little below him, he's already on the older side and will pitch the entire 2024 season at 22 years old.

4. (#197) RHP Christian Little, Louisiana State.
As if LSU needs any more help, they're getting back one of the best unsigned college pitchers in the country. Christian Little's career has been a roller coaster ride, to say the least, so by returning to Baton Rouge he'll hope to right the ship and get his payday. One of the top high school pitchers in the entire country in 2021 earning top ten (!) buzz, he graduated early from Christian Brothers College High School in St. Louis to enroll at Vanderbilt as a 17 year old. Serving as the Commodore midweek starter in 2021, he worked mostly out of the bullpen in 2022 and decided to transfer to LSU in search of his breakout. The change of scenery unfortunately had the opposite effect and he posted a 7.79 ERA and a 42/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.2 innings, making for the worst season of his young career. However, he was one of the youngest players in the entire 2023 college class, not turning 20 until just before the draft at nearly two years younger than Terry Busse, who himself was age appropriate. So even though he's going back to school for his senior year, he'll still be very young for the 2024 class and will only turn 21 right around draft day. Little has nasty stuff at his best. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can touch 98 with some ride, and he can take a little off to turn it into an upper 80's cutter. He has a sharp slider that looks above average at best, though it can blend into his fringier curveball at times. He also shows a decent changeup. The command was solid during his prep career, but he has never taken a step forward in that regard and now grades below average, causing all of his stuff to play down as he works from behind in the count. Standing 6'4", 225 pounds, he's very physical but his delivery can get rigid, which also works against his command, and he'll have to watch his conditioning going forward. Returning to LSU will give the young arm a chance to iron out the kinks in his delivery and get more consistent with his stuff, in which case he could shoot back up boards. The age is a huge boon for him in possibly being able to make that happen.

5. (#208) RHP Joseph Gonzalez, Auburn.
Joseph Gonzalez put up a great sophomore season in 2022, posting a 3.22 ERA and a 54/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.1 innings, positioning himself as a potential top one hundred pick in 2023 entering the season. He showed well in his first start of 2023 against Indiana, tossing five shutout innings while allowing just three baserunners and picking up one strikeout, but he hurt his shoulder and hasn't seen the mound since. Shoulders injuries are about the most unpredictable injury a pitcher can get, so teams were naturally scared off by the fact that he hadn't pitched and weren't willing to roll the dice with the reasonably large signing bonus his talent would have earned him. So he'll head back to the Plains and look to prove his health in 2024. When healthy, Gonzalez sits in the low 90's with his fastball and tops out around 93-94 with running and sinking action. He has nice feel for both his low 80's slider and his above average changeup, though none stands out as a true strikeout pitch. Instead, the Puerto Rico native keeps hitters off balance by changing speeds and executing all three pitches to both sides of the plate with plus command, making him more of an old school pitching prospect in that regard. So long as he's healthy, he's a high floor type that looks like a high probability #4 or #5 starter in the long run, especially if he can add a tick of power to his stuff. However, the injury takes away that high floor, so it's hard to sell scouts on a low ceiling/low floor type. Showing that he's healthy and pounding the strike zone again in 2024 will get him back to the low ceiling/high floor type that typically does well early in day two.

Sunday, September 24, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

Full list of draftees

With the first overall pick, the Pirates selected the best amateur pitching prospect since Gerrit Cole in 2011 or possibly even Stephen Strasburg in 2009, setting the tone for their rotation for years to come. It also set the tone for an extremely pitching-heavy draft class, including a stretch of nine straight in rounds 4-12. Not only that, but most of the pitchers Pittsburgh selected after those first couple of rounds had very similar profiles. Lots were power armed collegians that that flashed nasty stuff, but struggled to achieve the results to match. You'll see lots of ERA's starting with 5, 6, or even 7, but the Pirates aren't paying them for what they did, they're paying them for what they'll do in the future. It's a bold strategy, but I can't say I dislike it. My one main issue with this draft is that they did not come close to spending their whole bonus pool, leaving over $300,000 on the table even before the overages, which could have netted them an additional $500,000 or so on top. That's like leaving a third round pick on the table. They weren't able to sign seventeenth rounder Daniel Cuvet, so that's probably where they wanted the money to go.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-1: RHP Paul Skenes, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $9.72 million. Signing bonus: $9.2 million ($521,000 below slot value).
My rank: #5. MLB Pipeline: #1. Baseball America: #2. Prospects Live: #2.
We can debate the merits of drafting elite pitchers ahead of elite hitters, and by my draft ranking you can probably tell I would have gone in a different direction, but there's no denying that Paul Skenes is elite in every sense of the word. I mentioned in the Nationals writeup that Dylan Crews might be the best college hitter I've seen since I started closely following the draft in 2015, and his teammate Skenes is easily the best amateur pitcher I've seen in that span. He originally began his career at Air Force, where he was primarily a position player at first and slashed .410/.486/.697 as a true freshman in 2021. That'll play. Meanwhile, he served as the Falcons' closer that year, then took on a rotation role in 2022 and thrived. Transferring to LSU for his junior season, he dropped hitting altogether despite being good enough to get drafted in the top couple of rounds in that regard. Already a likely first round pick as a pitcher, he took it up another level (or ten) with the best season in all of college baseball, posting a 1.69 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, and a 209/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.2 innings. Not only did those 209 strikeouts lead the nation, they were 51 ahead of second place Quinn Mathews' 158 (Stanford, now Cardinals). After beginning his college career in the low 90's and later bumping to the mid 90's, Skenes sat consistently in the upper 90's with his fastball in 2023 and touched as high as 102, velocity he maintained deep into his starts. He works between a two seamer and a four seamer, with the former shoring nice running action and the latter being a bit more generic, though neither stand out for their shape. At 97-101, pitch shape is less important. His slider was more of a tertiary pitch at Air Force, but it took a massive step forward at LSU and now registers as a plus-plus pitch with power and late sweep, missing bats at a huge rate. He can work it into more of a traditional curveball when he needs to, while he didn't use his changeup nearly as much in 2023 despite it previously being his strikeout pitch in Colorado Springs. The Southern California native still shows plus with that changeup, and the Pirates will reincorporate it more in pro ball. He pounds the strike zone with plus command, effectively working to both sides of the plate with both his fastball and his offspeed stuff, and together there's just not much you can do as a hitter. At 6'6", 235 pounds, he's extremely durable and moves well on the mound, ultimately projecting as a true ace or, at worst, a mid-rotation starter. There are two reasons I had him ranked #5 while everyone else had him top two – one is that I prefer not to trust pitchers when there are equally or near-equally elite hitters available, and the other is that there were four equally or near-equally elite hitters available. But other than that, this is pretty much the perfect profile for a pitcher. In his brief pro debut, he allowed four runs over 6.2 innings, striking out ten and walking two while working his way up to AA Altoona.

2-42: SS Mitch Jebb, Michigan State {video}
Slot value: $2.05 million. Signing bonus: $1.65 million ($395,900 below slot value).
My rank: #62. MLB Pipeline: #46. Baseball America: #62. Prospects Live: #56.
Mitch Jebb has a fascinating profile. He couldn't quite replicate his huge 2022 (.356/.448/.511, 6 HR) in 2023, where he slashed .337/.438/.495 with one home run and a 28/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games, but the junior numbers aren't too shabby either. Jebb has an East Asian style of hitting, starting with his bat resting on his shoulder with the knob pointed towards the pitcher before slowly bringing it back then flinging it through the zone as his weight works up towards the pitcher and down the first base line a bit (here's a good look from the side). Combine that with his lightning quick hands and plus bat to ball skills and you get an extreme hit over power approach. Jebb slaps line drives around the field with impunity, effortlessly guiding the barrel around the zone and rarely whiffing in the process. Though he hit just one home run in 2023, he quietly puts up solid exit velocities that would point towards fringe average or even average raw power, but turning on and lifting balls isn't his style and it will likely always play below average in games. While he may not be a home run threat in pro ball, it does mean that he should continue to hit for impact in pro ball, even if that impact manifests in doubles and triples. Jebb is also a very patient hitter that walks at a high rate, overall making for a pretty well-rounded offensive profile sans the power. A plus runner, his instincts help him make things happen on the base paths and he has stolen 34 bases in 84 games over the past two seasons at Michigan State. The Saginaw, Michigan native is a scrappy defender that moves well around the dirt and will certainly stick in the infield. However, he doesn't quite have enough arm to make it work at shortstop, so second base is most likely his long term destination. He has a chance to be a high on-base, lower power second baseman that steals plenty of bases. Jebb had a successful pro debut in which he slashed .297/.382/.398 with one home run, eleven stolen bases, and an 11/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 games at Low A Bradenton.

CBB-67: RHP Zander Mueth, Belleville East HS [IL] {video}
Slot value: $1.13 million. Signing bonus: $1.8 million ($671,800 above slot value).
My rank: #98. MLB Pipeline: #83. Baseball America: #56. Prospects Live: #108.
After saving close to a million dollars on their first two picks, the Pirates began to unload their savings here with Zander Mueth, who actually signed for more money than Mitch Jebb above him rather than attend Ole Miss. Mueth has electric stuff. His fastball sits in the low 90's over longer outings but can touch 98 in short stints with serious running action. His slider sweeps hard in the opposite direction, giving him a second above average pitch. Meanwhile, his changeup gives him a third solid option with some fading action. The 6'6" righty comes from a very low three quarters, nearly sidearm slot that provides a unique look for hitters and makes the stuff play up further. However, it also impacts his command as he hasn't quite learned to wrangle his high octane stuff consistently yet, while his running fastball and sweeping slider could probably use a cutter or a curveball to split the difference. Mueth is a great athlete that gets down the mound well and provides a ton of projection, so he could sit in the mid 90's consistently once he fills out. If Mueth can hold his command together while rounding out his arsenal a bit better, he has a chance to be a #2 or #3 starter. If not, the fastball/slider combo could play in relief. It's a high risk, high reward profile as you would expect.

3-73: 3B Garret Forrester, Oregon State {video}
Slot value: $990,300. Signing bonus: $772,500 ($117,800 below slot value).
My rank: #118. MLB Pipeline: #116. Baseball America: #159. Prospects Live: #174.
Pittsburgh saved a little more money on Garret Forrester, who brings an interesting hit over power profile at first base. He's a three year performer at Oregon State that put up his best season in 2023, slashing .341/.485/.522 with ten home runs and a 51/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games, pushing his career on-base percentage up to an elite .470 in 177 games. He never, ever chases, up there with the very best of them in his ability to force pitchers into the zone and walk at a sky high 20.1% rate over the past two seasons. When he does pull the trigger, he utilizes a flat, line drive-oriented swing to lace the ball around the field with authority. Similar to Mitch Jebb, he sneakily posts higher exit velocities than you'd expect and in this case has above average raw power in the tank, but also like Jebb, he's not looking to turn on and lift the ball. Forrester's pure bat to ball skills are just average, perhaps a tick above, but his strength combined with his ability to choose good pitches to hit could help him incorporate that power into his game a bit more naturally than perhaps Jebb. If Pittsburgh chooses to go that route with his development, he could turn into a right handed Kyle Manzardo, though likely with more whiffs. The Pirates drafted Forrester as a third baseman, and he has seen time there, but he's a below average athlete with well below average speed and it's hard to see him providing much value at the hot corner. He likely profiles as a first baseman long term, where you'd hope to see him tap that power a bit more often in order to play every day. He hit .278/.552/.278 with a 7/10 strikeout to walk ratio in a brief six game debut for Class A Bradenton, not hitting any extra base hits but walking in over a third of his plate appearances.

4-104: RHP Carlson Reed, West Virginia {video}
Slot value: $646,900. Signing bonus: $600,000 ($46,900 below slot value).
My rank: #116. MLB Pipeline: #196. Baseball America: #180. Prospects Live: #112.
This is one of my favorite picks of the draft for Pittsburgh. Carlson Reed is an electric arm out of the Pirates' backyard, and he's trending hard in the right direction. This past season, Reed had the best year of his college career with a 2.61 ERA and a 60/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 innings, and I think his best days are ahead of him. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and can touch 98 in short stints, and though the pitch has average life, it plays way up because he gets elite extension down the mound to release the ball right in front of the hitter's face. His best pitch, though, is a plus sweeper that dives across the plate and should continue to miss a ton of bats in pro ball. He also shows an above average changeup to round out a really nasty arsenal. However, the 6'4" righty struggles with command due to his long arm action, having difficulty repeating his release point after all that length. He walked 21.4% of his opponents on the Cape last summer and 14.5% at WVU this past spring, a mark that will need to come down considerably. Due to that command, he's probably a reliever, but he still has significant upside. The Atlanta-area native is extremely young for a college junior, actually more age appropriate for a college sophomore, and has that much more time to smooth things out. With three potential plus pitches, he doesn't need plus or even average command to succeed as a starter, so if the Pirates can just get him living in the zone and let his lack of command carry the ball to the corners, the stuff is deceptive enough to miss bats even over the heart of the plate when mixed right. I'm bullish on the upside here. In his pro debut, he allowed seven runs (two earned) over seven innings while striking out six and walking three in the Florida Complex League.

5-140: RHP Patrick Reilly, Vanderbilt {video}
Slot value: $455,600. Signing bonus: $453,100 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #179. MLB Pipeline: #219. Baseball America: #233. Prospects Live: #283.
Patrick Reilly is an enigmatic prospect to say the least. He first popped onto the national radar with a huge performance in the fall of his senior year of high school, but the pandemic shortened spring season didn't give scouts a large enough sample size to sign him away from a strong commitment to Vanderbilt. He immediately took on a significant role as a swingman as a true freshman, which is an extremely impressive feat at a program like Vanderbilt and speaks volumes to his talent. However, after that initial push as a freshman, he has stagnated now for a couple of years and scouts aren't quite sure what to make of him. His three seasons have all been pretty similar, and overall he has a 5.25 ERA and a 187/93 strikeout to walk ratio over 144 innings for his career. He has also appeared in the Cape Cod League in three separate summers where he was a bit better but still inconsistent, combining for a 2.90 ERA and a 34/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 40.1 innings. Reilly's power fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and has touched 99 in short stints, with enough riding action to miss barrels but not quite enough to miss a ton of bats. He can cut the fastball to create some extra movement down closer to 90, or he can work in a true slider that ranges anywhere from plus to fringe-average. There's a changeup in the arsenal as well, but it's certainly his fourth pitch. Reilly has a very athletic, uptempo delivery that looks good from a scouting perspective, but he struggles to repeat it and has never been able to take the necessary step forward with his command. It's frustrating, because the 6'3" righty has an ideal pitcher's frame and moves very well on the mound with great athleticism, but alas it's where we are at this point. Reilly certainly has all the ingredients to start. He has a power arm, snaps off some nasty breaking balls, can give another look with his cutter, and is athletic enough to withstand a long season. Vanderbilt is a tremendous program and he has not been able to take the next step there, but if the Pirates can find a little more hop for his fastball and can get him more consistent with his offspeed stuff and command, the upside is there. The Jersey Shore native was similarly enigmatic in his pro debut, where he posted a 5.91 ERA and a 19/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.2 innings at Class A Bradenton.

6-167: LHP Hunter Furtado, Alabama {video}
Slot value: $351,400. Signing bonus: $348,900 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #192. Baseball America: #359. Prospects Live: #321.
Hunter Furtado gives Pittsburgh yet another high octane arm. After beginning his career at Wake Forest, he pitched two years at Alabama but never earned consistent innings. 2023 was his best year yet, in which he put up a 4.75 ERA and a 38/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 innings, though he performed much better out of conference than against those stronger SEC lineups. The fastball sits in the mid 90's and can touch 98 from a very high slot, while his slider flashes plus with sweeping action and his changeup plays nicely off his fastball. It's definitely big league stuff, but to this point his below average command has made everything play down. Long and lanky at 6'4", he has trouble repeating his mechanics that feature significant effort. He especially struggles to locate his offspeed stuff, which forces him to pitch off his fastball and also plays a part in his stuff playing down. That said, like with Patrick Reilly (albeit with a very different profile), the ingredients are there. The South Florida native has plenty of size, length, athleticism, and arm strength, and his entire arsenal looks nasty when he does manage to locate it. You can often chalk poor command for lanky high school pitchers up to growing into their body, but Furtado may be in that boat even as a 21 year old college arm. The Pirates are buying in and think they can make him into a power reliever, or if things really come together, a stuff-over-command starting pitcher. It's a tall task but an interesting one to follow.

7-197: LHP Jaden Woods, Georgia {video}
Slot value: $273,800. Signing bonus: $271,300 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #141. MLB Pipeline: #236. Baseball America: #152. Prospects Live: #203.
Jaden Woods continues to follow the theme of enigmatic college arms, and he's certainly an interesting one. He was progressing nicely over the first two years of his Georgia career, then created some helium with an extremely strong four start stretch early in his junior season. However, he stagnated during the middle part of the season then barely pitched after biceps issues flared up in April, finishing with a 5.77 ERA and a 62/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 48.1 innings. Woods sits in the low 90's with his fastball, touching 96 in short stints but sitting closer to 90 in longer outings with some riding life. His slider is extremely inconsistent, looking like a plus pitch at times but frequently backing up and looking like a fringy, loopy slurve. He's begun to incorporate his changeup more now that he's jumped into a starting role, looking like an average pitch. As I've said about most of the pitchers in this Pirates draft class, the ingredients are there for an impact starting pitcher. He's a great athlete on the mound with a quick arm that repeats his delivery well and can get into the mid 90's with a sometimes-banger breaking ball. However, inconsistency has been his downfall so far. The offspeed stuff isn't always there, the command isn't always there, and he has not proven that he's durable enough to handle a starting pitcher's role. Pittsburgh thinks they can build him up and help him put it together, in which case he could be a #3 or #4 starting pitcher if it all clicks. The Macon-area native looked sharp and healthy in his pro debut, posting a 3.14 ERA and a 21/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 14.1 innings at Low A Bradenton.

11-317: LHP Magdiel Cotto, Kentucky {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $197,500 ($47,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #267. Prospects Live: #413.
Surprise, Magdiel Cotto is yet another power armed, enigmatic prospect that has struggled to put it all together in SEC play. He began his career at South Carolina, but transferred to Kentucky after one season and in three seasons has never posted an ERA below 6.00. After serving as a swingman in 2022, he was a full time reliever in 2023 and posted a 6.00 ERA and a 26/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 innings for the Wildcats. Interestingly, he was at his best last summer on the Cape, where he posted a 3.73 ERA and a 31/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.1 innings, but he never matched that in Lexington. Cotto is a big guy at 6'4", 250 pounds, using his size and arm strength to sit in the low to mid 90's and touch 97 in short stints. He rips off an above average slider that misses bats at its best, while his hard changeup gives a nice third look. The problem, of course, has been strike throwing. The Charlotte-area native has a very loose delivery, so loose that he struggles to repeat it and always seems to be working from behind in the count aside from during that one run through the Cape. At this point, he's a long shot to start in pro ball, but his fastball/slider combo could work in relief if the Pirates can tighten him up a little bit and get him executing to both sides of the plate. His history on the Cape, which is better than the similar prospects ahead of him in this Pirates class, suggests that is a distinct possibility. In his brief pro debut, he allowed two runs over 6.1 innings while striking out seven and walking three between the Florida Complex League and Low A Bradenton.

12-347: RHP Khristian Curtis, Arizona State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $497,500 ($347,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: #150. MLB Pipeline: #197. Baseball America: #126. Prospects Live: #154.
Khristian Curtis follows the theme as well, so I'll stop repeating it. He began his career at Texas A&M, but barely saw the mound and transferred to Arizona State after two years. There he pitched to uneven results, posting a 7.03 ERA and a 58/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 innings, at one point allowing eight earned runs in back to back starts before turning around and firing seven shutout innings in his next start. Surprise surprise, Curtis has loud stuff. He sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with his fastball, and he can change up the movement patterns where he needs to. He has a deep arsenal of offspeed pitches, with a sharp, above average slider standing out as the best. There is also a cutter, curveball, and changeup in there, though none particularly stand out. The 6'5" righty is very projectable and moves well on the mound, though there are moving parts in his delivery that cause inconsistencies in his command. He has the arsenal to start, so finding a way to more effectively mix and executive his pitches will go a long way in reaching that goal. The Pirates certainly believe in the arm talent given that they handed him late fourth round money to sign here in the twelfth round. I do believe he has a better chance to start than most other arms the Pirates drafted (aside from Paul Skenes of course).

13-377: 2B Charles McAdoo, San Jose State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #342. Prospects Live: unranked.
Charles McAdoo has a fun profile and breaks a streak of nine consecutive pitchers drafted. After only earning sporadic playing time as a freshman, he grabbed a starting spot as a sophomore and never looked back, slashing .335/.408/.585 with 22 home runs and a 74/51 strikeout to walk ratio in 114 games over the past two seasons. His raw strength and strong feel for the barrel help him rope the ball to all fields with authority, using a leveraged right handed swing that produces plenty of hard contact. An aggressive hitter, he bumped his walk rate from 7.3% as a sophomore to 11.9% as a junior but can still be prone to chasing quality stuff out of the zone. McAdoo has above average power and it played up last summer in the Northwoods League, where he hit ten home runs in 43 games, and overall I think he's a real sleeper to turn into a quality big league bat. The pressure will be on the bat, however, as he's just decent at second base and could be forced to left field by a better defender. The ceiling here is a bat-first second baseman that can rope 15-20 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages, which I think is a great find in the thirteenth round. The Bay Area native got off to a red hot, and I mean red hot, start to his pro career by hitting .548/.641/.871 over his first eight games (including a 6-6, 2 HR performance in game #4), but cooled off after that and overall hit .302/.412/.510 with five home runs and a 22/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 games at Low A Bradenton.

16-467: C Justin Miknis, Kent State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $75,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
This pick won't make headlines, but I definitely want to cover it because it's not often the Pirates bring in guys from Western PA. Justin Miknis will hope to join the ranks of Neil Walker (Gibsonia), David Bednar (Mars), and Joe Beimel (St. Mary's) as recent Yinzers to play for the Pirates. Hailing from DuBois, Pennsylvania, a small town on I-80 about eighty miles northeast of Pittsburgh, Miknis attended DuBois Central Catholic High School then crossed the border to play at Kent State for college. He didn't play as a freshman, but he has been an excellent everyday contributor over the past three seasons and has hit .319/.405/.505 with 20 home runs and a 115/81 strikeout to walk ratio over 159 games for his career. There is no standout tool here, as you might. expect from a cheap senior sign in the sixteenth round, but he does a lot well. Miknis has a quick, clean left handed swing and uses the whole field effectively with a line drive approach, also showing enough power to turn on the ball for home runs to the pull side. He's a pretty disciplined hitter and takes good at bats, so his offensive game doesn't have many holes. He's also a strong, agile defender that was named to the MAC All-Defensive team in both 2022 and 2023, so he'll stick behind the plate in pro ball. Given that he turned 23 two months after the draft, it's a pretty clear backup profile that may never be more than organizational filler, but you don't see a lot of Western Pennsylvanians in pro ball and it's fun to see the Pirates snatch one up. He didn't hit much in his pro debut, slashing .152/.317/.182 with a 12/8 strikeout to walk ratio over eleven games at Low A Bradenton.

Saturday, September 23, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Washington Nationals

Full list of draftees

The Nationals employed a very interesting draft strategy this year. Typically, the difference between the good and the great organizations is how they draft in day two and day three, finding upside versus just filling out the system. The Nationals have historically been, well, awful at that, so rather than continuing to try, they did something a little different. After signing Dylan Crews to full slot value with their first pick, they went more than $2 million above slot value with their next to picks, made a couple of slightly below slot signings in the fourth and fifth round, then punted the rest of day two. In rounds six through ten, they spent just $100,000 combined on five players and saved over $1.1 million in the process (nearly $1.4 million if you include smaller discounts in rounds four and five). While there's not much upside after those first few rounds, they did come away with a three headed monster at the top of the draft. Dylan Crews, of course, is a potential superstar with MVP upside, while Yohandy Morales has a good shot to be the team's third baseman of the future and Travis Sykora has massive upside as a high school pitcher touching triple digits. Andrew Pinckney wasn't the same kind of pick, signing for less than 20% of what Morales and Sykora got, but he's off to a hot start and looks like a nice sleeper too. Overall, it was a position player-heavy draft class in the early going then pivoted to pitching later, a strategy I typically like.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-2: OF Dylan Crews, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $9 million. Signing bonus: $9 million.
My rank: #1. MLB Pipeline: #2. Baseball America: #1. Prospects Live: #1.
I've written a lot about Dylan Crews in the past and I'll write a lot here because there is so much to say about him. First off, I think Mike Rizzo nailed this pick. Crews is the single best hitter I've seen at the college level since I began covering the draft in 2015. That doesn't make him the best prospect, because there are other considerations like speed, defense, etc., but what you do in the box is most of the equation and there's no topping Crews in that regard. Considered a potential first round pick at times during his prep days in the Orlando area, he had an uneven summer before his senior season and never quite got going with the bat before the pandemic shutdown, so he bet on himself and went to LSU rather than sign presumably for second round money. As it turns out, he was right, and his talent showed that he never should have been allowed to step foot on a college campus. He immediately hit .362/.453/.663 with 18 home runs as a true freshman, then kept on rolling by slashing .349/.463/.691 with 22 home runs as a sophomore. Just when you thought he couldn't further exceed expectations, he put together his best season yet in 2023 by slashing .426/.567/.713 with 18 home runs and a 46/71 strikeout to walk ratio over 71 games, winning the Golden Spikes Award and helping LSU to a National Championship along the way. He gets it done with a freakishly explosive right handed swing, showing off some of the best bat speed you'll find. That translates to truly elite exit velocities, and in the dozens of at bats I've watched of his in real time, I've rarely ever seen him hit the ball softly. The ball just screams off his bat with regular deep line drives and scorching ground balls even on his outs. The plus-plus raw power plays down to "just" plus in games because he has more of a line drive approach, but you won't hear me complain there. Beyond the lightning in his bat, Crews is also a plus pure hitter that could make a living with his on-base ability alone. He cut his strikeout rate from 18.2% in 2022 to 13.4% in 2023, meanwhile bumping up his walk rate from 13.7% to 20.6%. He rarely chases and makes adjustments during his at bats like a pro. In one game I watched of his, he got to two strikes in every plate appearance, and if I'm remembering correctly, he still got on base four or five times. The only hole in his offensive profile is that he can swing and miss a bit in the zone, so he'll have to adjust as pitchers attack him more aggressively. Of course, they'll be doing so at their own peril against a kid who hit .380 with 58 home runs in his LSU career. Beyond all that, Crews has turned in some plus run times and is sticking in center field for now. There's a lot of competition for that center field spot in the Nationals system between Elijah Green, Christhian Vaquero, Robert Hassell, and James Wood, and Crews probably grades out middle of the pack with regards to those gloves. His above average arm and speed would make him an above average defender in right field, and given all the competition, it's plausible he could wind up in left field and be a plus defender there. He didn't set the world on fire, but he had a successful pro debut slashing .292/.377/.467 with five home runs and a 38/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 games while working his way up to AA Harrisburg.

2-40: 3B Yohandy Morales, Miami {video}
Slot value: $2.14 million. Signing bonus: $2.6 million ($455,300 above slot value).
My rank: #26. MLB Pipeline: #20. Baseball America: #26. Prospects Live: #29.
It was surprising to see Yohandy Morales still available at the start of the second round, but the Nationals swooped in and signed him for an above slot bonus, roughly the value of the #32 pick. Morales was another famous high school prospect from the Florida prep ranks like Dylan Crews, though his journey has been a bit different. He made a name for himself late in the process when he came out red hot to start his senior season, but the pandemic cut that breakout short and teams weren't ready to bet on him based on that smaller sample size. Like Crews, he jumped into the starting lineup as a freshman but while Crews was a star from day one, Morales has built himself up gradually. After a solid freshman season (.284/.343/.531, 11 HR) and a strong sophomore season (.329/.411/.650, 18 HR), he broke out for a massive junior season in which he slashed .408/.475/.713 with 20 home runs and a 55/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games. First off, he stands out for his power. Morales can put a charge into a baseball with the best of them, with plus-plus raw power that can send a ball out to any field even on his mishits. That said, he's more of a line drive hitter at this point that can elevate when he needs to. At this point, his approach is very raw, with a high chase rate that cuts into his walks and leads to more strikeouts than you'd like to see. Because of his propensity to lose control of the strike zone, he can be very streaky at the plate and go through stretches where he looks lost. However, when he's hot, it's over for opposing pitchers. When he's going right, he looks like a top ten talent and a future superstar, so the Nationals have an interesting case on their hands. They'll look to balance out his approach and get him controlling his at bats a little better, perhaps also finding a way to add more consistent loft to his swing without pushing that whiff rate any higher than it already is. He has the power to hit 30+ home runs per season depending on what kind of hitter he wants to be. Defensively, the Miami native is a good athlete that moves well at third base, where he should be able to stick long term despite a lack of a standout offensive tool. Interestingly, Morales employed a much more hit over power profile in his pro debut, slashing .349/.423/.494 without homering in 42 games while running a 36/19 strikeout to walk ratio and working his way up to AA Harrisburg.

3-71: RHP Travis Sykora, Round Rock HS [TX] {video}
Slot value: $1.02 million. Signing bonus: $2.6 million ($1.58 million above slot value).
My rank: #39. MLB Draft: #40. Baseball America: #36. Prospects Live: #52.
The Nationals rounded out their big three with a massive over slot bonus here at pick #71, giving Travis Sykora the same $2.6 million signing bonus as Yohandy Morales, more than double his slot value to sign away from a Texas commitment. The Nationals have a little bit of a theme going, as Sykora actually gives them three alumni of Round Rock High School alongside reliever Mason Thompson and minor league outfielder Jared McKenzie. Sykora, though, could be the best of the three. He is physically gifted beyond belief, standing 6'6" and 230 pounds already with the arm strength to match. The fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and has touched as high as 101 with some riding life. His hard, short, sweeping slider is getting better and better and leaves hitters looking silly, projecting as a plus pitch. He has also been working in a splitter that makes for one of the better changeups in the prep class, and together it's an electric three pitch mix. What's even scarier is that Sykora still seems to be growing into his extra large frame. The delivery is raw, as he looks a bit stiff up there and seems to be just stepping and throwing at times. I typically don't like stiff deliveries, but in this case, it doesn't seem to be an athleticism issue but rather a matter of him growing into his body. The command is improving but is fringy at this point, so hopefully ironing out his delivery a little more can help him continue to improve in that regard while, and this is the scary part, possibly adding another tick of velocity. It's important to note that the Austin-area native is extremely old for a high schooler, having turned 19 way back in April and really more age appropriate for a college freshman. It takes away a little bit from the projection and it does mean he was beating up on younger competition, but at the end of the day, 101 is 101 and a plus slider/changeup combo is a plus slider/changeup combo. I think Sykora will be a rotation force if the Nationals develop him right. 

4-102: OF Andrew Pinckney, Alabama {video}
Slot value: $660,000. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($160,000 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #216. Baseball America: #168. Prospects Live: #187.
Already having borrowed $2 million against their bonus pool at this point, the Nationals needed to start saving money and they did so by giving 22 year old Andrew Pinckney a slight discount here in the fourth round. He has steadily improved every season during his time at Alabama, putting it all together for a massive redshirt junior season in 2023 in which he slashed .339/.442/.648 with 18 home runs and a 68/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. With Pinckney, we're talking loud tools. The Atlanta-area native has a ferocious bat from the right side, showing off plus raw power that he tapped in games in 2023, playing well to all fields. The approach itself is a little raw, as like Yohandy Morales he chases at a very high rate but in this case whiffs even more, especially against offspeed stuff. Interestingly enough, despite his raw approach, the bat has played up against better competition. He held his own in the Cape Cod League last summer (.235/.311/.390) and saw no drop off at all between his overall numbers at Alabama and his SEC-only stats (.330/.434/.652), where he faced better pitching. And to top it all off, in his toughest matchup of his young career against eventual first overall pick Paul Skenes in April, he singled, homered, and singled again to score the team's only run against Skenes (and picked up two more hits against the bullpen to make for a 5-5 day). Beyond the bat, Pinckney is a plus runner and has a howitzer for an arm, helping him play a pretty mean right field. The speed could help him slide to center field if needed, though in this system it probably won't be needed. Whether his bat can continue playing up to his competition despite his egregious swing and miss concerns will be something to watch, but if it can, he has the kind of outlier physical tools to make an impact in DC. He was on my radar but I never quite got around to him in my pre-draft research, which is why he's unranked, but I really like the profile and wish I did. His successful pro debut saw him slash .321/.415/.457 with four home runs and a 38/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games, like Crews and Morales working his way up to AA Harrisburg.

5-138: SS Marcus Brown, Oklahoma State {video}
Slot value: $464,400. Signing bonus: $350,000 ($114,400 below slot value).
My rank: #188. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #147. Prospects Live: #222.
Continuing with the money saving theme, Marcus Brown is a talented shortstop that has shown flashes of top three rounds talent, but ultimately fell to an under slot deal in the fifth round. He opened eyes with a big sophomore season (.316/.378/.441), but didn't hit for much impact on the Cape (.235/.315/.295) and slashed .273/.360/.469 with nine home runs and a 40/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games. Brown is a glove-first prospect that will keep himself employed based on that alone. He glides around the infield with a slick glove, also showing an above average arm that can make all the necessary throws. While he's not necessarily a walking highlight reel over there, he gets the job done to an extent that you can be confident he'll stick at the position throughout his career, taking pressure off his bat. At the plate, Brown shows strong bat to ball skills by getting his barrel long through the zone, making plenty of contact both inside and outside the zone. He's an aggressive hitter that rarely walks, though he boosted his on-base percentage significantly in 2023 by getting hit by pitches (16) more often than he walked (14). There's not much going on in the power department here. The Northwest Arkansas native is a skinny kid at 6', 185 pounds, with below average exit velocities and real question marks about how much impact he'll be able to generate with wood after he slugged .295 on the Cape. He shows a whippy barrel and his swing works nicely, so he could conceivably get to fringe average power if he tacks on some strength, though the Nationals have not had a good track record with that. Brown most likely profiles as a utility infielder in a Wilmer Difo type of role. He actually walked more in his 30 game pro debut than he did in his 60 games at Oklahoma State, slashing .260/.376/.346 with one home run and a 17/15 strikeout to walk ratio between the Florida Complex League and Low A Fredericksburg.

6-165: OF Gavin Dugas, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $357,500. Signing bonus: $20,000 ($337,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #415. Prospects Live: unranked.
Here is where the money saving really starts in earnest. Gavin Dugas has played half a decade at LSU, having spent the past three seasons as an every day player. He was at his best in 2023, when he slashed .290/.464/.589 with 17 home runs and a 63/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 games, helping Dylan Crews lead the Tigers to their National Championship. Interestingly enough, he also tied with George Mason's Connor Dykstra for the national lead by getting hit by 33 pitches, almost one every other game. Dugas is a stocky kid at 5'10", 205 pounds, packing plenty of strength into his shorter frame to give him above average power from the right side. He gets to it with strong wrists that flick the barrel through the zone with ease, catching the ball out front and driving it well to the pull side. He's a patient hitter that draws a lot of walks but also gets into trouble in deep counts, where his below average pure bat to ball skills cause him to strike out a bit more than you'd like. The southern Louisiana native saw a lot of time in the infield in 2023, but with below average athleticism he'll be forced to a corner outfield role. Already 23 before the draft rolled around, Dugas probably profiles more as organizational filler than as a future impact piece, but the power and the track record of tapping it against good pitching (career .571 slugging percentage at LSU) gives him some upside as a platoon or bench bat. He hit .185/.380/.315 with two home runs and an 18/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Fredericksburg, about what should be expected.

10-285: SS Phillip Glasser, Indiana {video}
Slot value: $172,100. Signing bonus: $20,000 ($152,100 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Phillip Glasser played three years at Youngstown State, then leveraged a strong junior season into an opportunity to transfer to Indiana for the final two years of his college career. He has continued to rake in Bloomington, hitting .352/.443/.500 with ten home runs and a 60/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games in two years, and earned the opportunity to jump on with Washington as a fifth year senior sign, albeit for barely any money. There is not much power to speak of in this profile, with his seven home runs in 2023 representing a career high and just 16 in 228 games for his career, but he does everything else well. Glasser is a very patient hitter that controls his at bats from start to finish, then utilizes a quick, accurate left handed swing to shoot line drives around the field. He can run and has enough speed to leg out some extra base hits. The Akron-area native also plays a strong shortstop and should have enough arm to make it work, further boosting his value. He was already 23 and a half by the time the draft rolled around, so you'd hope that he was an advanced hitter, and he could move up quickly with his speed, on-base ability, and defense. He has the ceiling of a utility infielder due to his lack of power but I like this pick given the minuscule signing bonus. Glasser took well to pro ball, slashing .310/.423/.414 with one home run and a 6/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Fredericksburg in his pro debut.

13-375: LHP Liam Sullivan, Georgia {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #278. Prospects Live: #303.
This is the kind of post-hype, large conference starting pitcher the Nationals like to target. Liam Sullivan showed pretty well over his first two seasons at Georgia, then rocketed up boards with an exceptional run through the Cape Cod League last summer (2.17 ERA, 45/8 K/BB in 29 IP). However, the stuff stagnated in 2023 and he finished with a 5.77 ERA and a 75/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 innings for the Dawgs. Sullivan is a big guy at 6'6", 255 pounds, though most of his profile grades out as average. He has touched 96 with his fastball in the past, though it lives closer to 90 most days with some run and ride. He works between a slider and a curveball to miss bats, while his changeup gives him a fourth sneaky solid offering. Nothing stands out in his arsenal, but he missed a ton of bats on the Cape when he was pounding the strike zone and effectively keeping hitters off balance. There's some late jerk in the delivery which can impact his finer command at times, so when he leaves stuff over the plate or gets too predictable, he gets hit. The Nationals will look to get him smoothed out a bit and help him mix his pitches better, in which case he could work his way up as a back-end starter. He posted a 4.96 ERA and a 25/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 16.1 innings between the Florida Complex League and Low A Fredericksburg.

14-405: OF Elijah Nuñez, Texas Christian {video)
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #493. Prospects Live: #405.
Elijah Nuñez brings a similar profile to Marcus Brown, except that he's an outfielder. He established himself as one of the better prospects in the Big 12 after swiping 31 bags with a .435 on-base percentage in 2022, though he never took a step forward from there and slashed .289/.400/.414 with three home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 60/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games in 2023. He's an above average runner that plays a strong center field, with great feel for the position to make his speed play up further. As with Brown, that alone gives him a nice floor. Nuñez is a very patient hitter that has run a .405 on-base percentage and a 19.1% walk rate for his career, forcing pitchers to give him good pitches to hit which they did in 2023, leading to a career-high 22 extra base hits (and a career-low 12.5% walk rate). While Nuñez chooses good pitches to hit and his quick hands help him catch up to velocity, he isn't great at picking up spin and therefore swings and misses more than you'd like given his profile, so the overall hit tool may not be better than average. There's virtually no power here, as he's a smaller guy at 5'10" and doesn't look to turn on the ball anyways, with five career home runs in 177 games over three seasons. Power will never be a part of his game, so he'll have to find a way to keep the whiffs down and keep getting on base. The above average speed plays well on the bases too, with 61 career stolen bases further enabled by his strong instincts. He profiles as a fourth outfielder that can fill in anywhere on the grass. He showed exactly the kind of player he is in his pro debut, slashing .281/.412/.303 with 20 stolen bases and a 20/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Fredericksburg.

15-435: RHP Mikey Tepper, Liberty {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #393. Prospects Live: #469.
The Nationals reached into their own backyard here and picked up an interesting arm, one of my favorites of day three. Originally committed to play near his hometown at Charlotte, he switched gears and wound up at Mississippi State where he struggled with command over two years in the Bulldog bullpen. After putting up a nice showing on the Cape over the summer (4.84 ERA, 15/6 K/BB in 13 IP), he transferred to Liberty and jumped into the rotation, where he put up a 5.23 ERA and a 78/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings. Tepper sits in the low 90's and can reach 96 with riding and running life, playing above its velocity. His breaking ball is still searching for its identity a bit but he can get deep snap on it at times to miss bats, while his changeup gives him a third pitch with promise. The Charlotte-area native has long struggled with control, which may push him to the bullpen in the long run. He has an uptempo delivery and needs to smooth it out a bit if he wants to remain a starter, though the stuff will play well out of the bullpen. Adding a tick of velocity to his fastball and getting more consistent with one of his offspeed pitches would make him a quality reliever, and overall I think there's nice upside here for the kid who's already young for a college junior, turning 21 a month before the draft. He got blown up a bit in his pro debut, posting a 10.13 ERA and a 15/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 13.1 innings between the Florida Complex League and Low A Fredericksburg.

16-465: RHP Austin Amaral, Stetson {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #457. Prospects Live: #268.
Austin Amaral is a fairly similar prospect to Mikey Tepper and I like him too. He's a three year performer at Stetson, holding a 3.15 ERA through 142.2 career innings, and in 2023 he was a full time starter for the full time with a 3.30 ERA and an 82/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 76.1 innings. Amaral sits in the low 90's with his fastball and touches 96 with serious hop, like Tepper's fastball playing above its velocity. He can really rip through a slider, which shows nice late sweeping action to miss plenty of bats. His curveball and a newer splitter don't show up as much in games, and they're a pair of pitches (especially the splitter) the Nationals will want to help along. The 6' righty has a unique delivery with a deep arm plunge where he stabs the ball behind his back, perhaps giving hitters a quick extra look at the grip, and shows fringy command. For a sixteenth rounder, Amaral has a lot going for him between his fastball, slider, and track record of performance. If he can get more consistent with his splitter and/or take a step forward with his command, he could be a back-end starter, or he could work as a fastball/slider reliever with a little extra bump on his stuff in the bullpen. In his pro debut, he posted a 3.38 ERA and a 13/5 strikeout to walk ratio over eight innings for Low A Fredericksburg.

18-525: C Nate Rombach, Dallas Baptist {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
The Nationals didn't sign their last two picks, so they effectively wrapped up their draft with Nate Rombach, who has been around for a while. Rombach, who began his career at Texas Tech, loudly announced his presence with a red hot start to his college career but went into a prolonged slump in his sophomore year and transferred to Dallas Baptist as a junior. The change of scenery didn't do much for him, as he slashed just .229/.332/.535 in his first year in Dallas, and he leveled out with a more balanced senior year in which he slashed .288/.355/.455 with seven home runs and a 41/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 games. At this point, Rombach is probably what he is. Power over hit for most of his career, he toned it down a bit in 2023 and dropped his strikeout rate from 29.8% as a junior to 18.8% as a senior, though with it came a drop in ISO from .306 to .167. He's very strongly built at 6'4", using that strength to produce his power more so than bat speed. Because he can be a bit slow getting started in the box, there's swing and miss in his game that gives him a below average hit tool despite a patient approach that keeps him swinging at good pitches. His strong arm is his best asset behind the plate, while his glovework is a bit behind. He profiles as a power hitting backup catcher if he can make enough contact without sacrificing that power.

UDFA: RHP Anthony Arguelles, Virginia Tech {video}
Slot value: N/A. Signing bonus: unknown.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
After the draft, the Nationals picked up a Hokie to throw into the system. Anthony Arguelles began his career at Santa Fe JC in Florida, then transferred to Miami where he was a useful arm out of the bullpen for two years. He transferred to Virginia Tech for his grad year, jumping into the rotation and posting a 4.90 ERA and a 64/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 60.2 innings. After the season, he got additional work in the MLB Draft League and put up a 6.75 ERA and a 13/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 innings, prompting the Nationals to give him a shot. He's a powderkeg athlete that sits in the low 90's with his fastball, adding a sharp slider as well as a curveball and changeup. He moves well on the mound and repeats his delivery well, though he likely ends up in the bullpen due to fringy command and stuff that's a bit light to get hitters out multiple times through the order. The Miami native got into a couple games, one apiece in the Florida Complex League and for Low A Fredericksburg, not allowing a run or a walk over 1.1 innings while picking up a strikeout.

Thursday, September 21, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Detroit Tigers

Full list of draftees

It was an extremely high school-heavy draft class for the Tigers, who drafted nine preps overall and signed seven of them, including four in their first five picks. It appears they'll be playing the long game, in a sense creating the next wave of talent that should be up sometime in the 2026-2027 range. The class is heavy on position players, heavy on talent that can stick in the dirt (just one outfielder drafted after Max Clark), and especially early, heavy on advanced hitters. I like most of the picks here and I think Detroit is moving in the right direction with this class.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-3: OF Max Clark, Franklin Community HS [IN] {video}
Slot value: $8.34 million. Signing bonus: $7.7 million ($641,700 below slot value).
My rank: #4. MLB Pipeline: #5. Baseball America: #5. Prospects Live: #5.
The Tigers popped the first high school position player off the board, and in doing so they brought in as dynamic a talent as you're going to find. Max Clark is already all over the internet as a social media-savvy up and coming baseball star, and he has the talent to match. He's not huge at 6'1", 190 pounds, but he's ideally proportioned at that size with plenty of lean muscle and an ultra projectable, long limbed frame. He has as long and as decorated a track record as any player in the prep class, with extremely consistent production against the top arms in his class going back a long time now. He takes great at bats, uses the whole field, and never tries to do too much at the plate with a clean left handed swing. Hit over power for most of his prep career, he has been hitting the weight room hard and has begun to turn on the ball more often, with at least average power now but likely to be above average power in the future as he fills out. Right there, you have not just a potential but a likely plus hitter with above average power, but it doesn't stop there. Clark is a plus-plus runner that moves gracefully on both sides of the ball, playing extremely well to his gap to gap hitting approach that should enable him to hit plenty of doubles and triples. Throw in his plus-plus arm and strong instincts, and you have a potential plus defender in center field to boot. It's an extraordinarily well-rounded profile that's a bit reminiscent of an early career Curtis Granderson or Grady Sizemore. To top it off, Clark is extremely competitive and well versed in the spotlight, with a likable demeanor and mature work ethic. It's tough to live in the spotlight like that (of course I am not speaking from experience here), and it will continue to be tough for the all-American kid, but he has handled it with grace to this point and I'd certainly bet on him to continue to achieve the lofty expectations around him. He hit well in the Florida Complex League but struggled a bit with an aggressive promotion to Low A Lakeland, overall slashing .224/.383/.376 with two home runs and a 25/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games.

CBA-37: SS Kevin McGonigle, Monsignor Bonner HS [PA] {video}
Slot value: $2.31 million. Signing bonus: $2.85 million ($540,500 above slot value).
My rank: #31. MLB Pipeline: #33. Baseball America: #25. Prospects Live: #21.
This is another fun profile that I'm curious to follow. Kevin McGonigle is one of the best pure hitters in the country, easily one of the most pro ready bats in the entire high school crop. The Tigers signed him away from an Auburn commitment here for most of the money they saved on Max Clark, rolling in for around the slot value of the #28 pick here at #37. McGonigle takes exceptional at bats, looking to do damage early with aggressive hacks but adeptly toning it down and making adjustments as he gets deeper in. You can't fool him with the same pitch twice. Showing a compact left handed swing, he uses the whole field effectively and can turn on the ball for some moderate pull side power to keep pitchers honest. It's certainly a hit over power profile, but one that could flirt with .400 on-base percentages while knocking 15-20 home runs per season at peak. The Philadelphia native also moves very well at shortstop, showing great body control and quick twitch athleticism despite average speed. However, he may be pushed to second or third base in the long run because he likes to set his feet before he throws, lacking the pure arm strength to make those tough throws on the run especially to his right. It's a profile that may not have the highest ceiling due to a lack of power projection at 5'10", but he has a chance to be a significant big league contributor for a long time. He hit the ground running in his pro debut, slashing .315/.452/.411 with one home run and a 10/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Lakeland.

2-45: SS Max Anderson, Nebraska {video}
Slot value: $1.91 million. Signing bonus: $1.43 million ($476,550 below slot value).
My rank: #44. MLB Pipeline: #91. Baseball America: #71. Prospects Live: #61.
I love this pick, especially since the Tigers saved nearly half a million dollars to bring in a very legitimate second round talent with a signing bonus closer to the #57 slot here at #45. Max Anderson is a career .350 hitter at Nebraska that has never stopped hitting, including breaking out for a massive junior season in which he slashed .414/.461/.770 with 21 home runs and a 29/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. He's also a two year performer in the Cape Cod League, sitting at .297/.356/.405 over a two year sample against elite pitching. Anderson has some of the best bat to ball skills in the class, showing the ability to find the fat part of the barrel no matter where it's pitched, including outside the zone. That's a very good thing because he's an extremely aggressive hitter that chases over 30% of the time, so if he's a good bad ball hitter, have at it. Not only that, but Anderson is one of the rare amateur bats that thrives against both velocity and offspeed stuff, showing the ability to recognize pitches, find his timing, and do damage no matter the location nor the pitch type. That should ease his transition to pro ball considerably despite his propensity to chase out of the zone. Once he makes contact, which is awesome, he has sneaky above average power that could give him 20+ home runs per season to go with his high averages, though he hasn't proven that power so much with wood just yet. The Hastings, Nebraska native is not a great athlete so shortstop probably won't happen despite the Tigers drafting him there. With a fringy arm and below average speed, even third base may be a challenge, so Anderson could end up at first base when it's all said and done. Finding a way to make it work at second or third base would obviously elevate the profile, but fortunately he has plenty of bat to profile even at first base. He hit .289/.345/.445 with two home runs and a 26/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games at Low A Lakeland.

3-76: LHP Paul Wilson, Lakeridge HS [OR] {video}
Slot value: $945,100. Signing bonus: $1.7 million ($754,900 above slot value).
My rank: #111. MLB Pipeline: #51. Baseball America: #51. Prospects Live: #116.
Paul Wilson represents the Tigers' largest over slot bonus in this class, getting the money for the #50 pick here at #76 to sign away from an Oregon State commitment. His father, Trevor Wilson, was a reliable starting pitcher for the Giants in the late 80's and early 90's, and now Paul will get his shot. Well-known in the Pacific Northwest already with a presence on the national stage, he really pushed himself up boards with a strong spring and earned his large signing bonus. He sits in the low to mid 90's and was reaching the upper 90's in the spring, getting more hop on his fastball to help miss bats. He shows nice feel to spin the ball with both a slider and a curveball, with the curve especially looking like a potential putaway pitch in pro ball. There's a changeup, too, with some fading action but overall more of an average pitch at this point. The 6'3" lefty looks pretty filled out as is and does throw with some effort from a short arm delivery, which could lead to relief risk. However, he did a better job this spring at holding his command together and maintaining his peak velocity and stuff, leading to increased optimism that he can start, and he's plenty physical enough to do so. The Tigers are buying big arm strength with feel to spin the ball and a positive trajectory, which is even better when you're getting it all from the left side.

4-107: SS Carson Rucker, Goodpasture Christian HS [TN] {video}
Slot value: $627,900. Signing bonus: $772,500 ($144,600 above slot value).
My rank: #135. MLB Pipeline: #132. Baseball America: #297. Prospects Live: #190.
The Tigers kept at it with the high school picks here, pulling in the younger brother of Twins prospect Jake Rucker. While Jake reached AA this year, Carson will just be getting started with another over slot bonus to keep him away from a Tennessee commitment, where he would have played at his brother's alma mater. Carson is a well rounded hitter with a strong, projectable 6'2" frame that he has begun to fill out. He takes powerful, leveraged hacks from the right side to produce above average power, though the swing can get a little long at times and create some swing and miss. It's nothing egregious, though, and he's a solid pure hitter that can handle advanced stuff while still doing damage. He's solid at shortstop, but he'll likely get pushed to third base by a springier defender, especially if he slows down with age, but he should stick on the left side of the infield. It's a nice profile with a lot going for it that could develop into a solid every day contributor as he progresses. The bloodlines are nice to have as well, though it should be noted that the Nashville-area native is on the older side for a high school senior and turned 19 just a month after the draft. He hit .242/.390/.364 with one home run and a 9/6 strikeout to walk ratio in his nine game Florida Complex League debut.

5-143: RHP Jaden Hamm, Middle Tennessee State {video}
Slot value: $442,200. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($44,700 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #218. Baseball America: #186. Prospects Live: #140.
Jaden Hamm jumped on the map with a strong fall practice last year and really established himself with an eleven strikeout one hitter against Evansville in March, though in all he was inconsistent and was blown up in a few starts. Overall, he showed a 5.31 ERA and a 93/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.2 innings and the Tigers are buying the guy they saw when Hamm was at his best. The fastball sits in the low 90's and can touch 97 in short stints, with huge riding action that makes it an above average pitch when he locates it. He adds a hammer curveball and a nice fading changeup, though those two pitches are less consistent than his fastball. The 6'1" righty has long arm action and comes from an over the top release point, which some hitters can get a good luck at especially if he's behind in the count and they're sitting on the fastball. Hamm does generally do a good job of locating that fastball but is less consistent in that regard with his offspeed stuff. The Tigers will want to focus on helping the Middle Tennessee native find more consistency with those offspeed pitches, which could make him a solid back end starter. If not, the fastball/curveball could play very well out of the bullpen especially as he likely adds a tick of velocity in that role. He looked extremely sharp in his pro debut, tossing twelve shutout innings (one unearned run) while striking out twelve and walking just one between the Florida Complex League and Low A Lakeland.

6-170: C Bennett Lee, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $342,400. Signing bonus: $297,500 ($44,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #428. Prospects Live: unranked.
It may look like a backup catcher profile on the surface, and it probably is, but Bennett Lee is a fun prospect to get into your system regardless. He burst onto the scene with a massive freshman season at Tulane in 2021 (.440/.527/.600, 4 HR), then came back to earth a little bit as a sophomore. He transferred to Wake Forest in 2023 and held down the starting catcher role for the Omaha-bound Demon Deacons, slashing .303/.435/.472 with seven home runs and an even 32/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games. It's not a standout offensive profile, but it's one that gets it done. Starting from a quiet setup, he uses the whole field and find the barrel consistently for hard contact, profiling for fringy raw power overall. He's very patient in the box and draws a ton of walks, helping him get on base at a .426 clip over his three year college career and providing a nice baseline for his offensive value. The offensive bar is lower for catchers, especially if they can defend like Lee. He has an above average glove back there with a strong arm, showing off his chops by working with the best staff in college baseball this spring. A hard nosed competitor, he'll be a great add to the clubhouse that will make his pitchers better, which is exactly what you want in a backup catcher. He showed off his patience by slashing .200/.444/.217 with an 11/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games at Low A Lakeland.

7-200: SS John Peck, Pepperdine {video}
Slot value: $267,000. Signing bonus: $222,500 ($44,500 below slot value).
My rank: #189. MLB Pipeline: #243. Baseball America: #150. Prospects Live: #176.
John Peck is certainly an interesting profile. He had a huge sophomore season in 2022 (.361/.417/.578, 7 HR) but struggled on the Cape over the summer (.182/.248/.245) and couldn't replicate his big sophomore season in 2023, when he slashed .272/.353/.441 with six home runs and a 51/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games. Peck is physically gifted if nothing else. Not huge at six feet tall, he has explosive bat speed from the right side that produces sneaky plus raw power that you rarely find this late in the draft, much less from a shortstop. However, he doesn't tap that power much in games and never hit more than seven home runs in a season at Pepperdine because he struggles to square the ball up and rarely turns on it with authority. The swing gets swoopy and he's prone to chasing breaking balls, leading to a high strikeout rate that was really exacerbated on the Cape, where he struck out 31.8% of the time. I'm far from sold on Peck's ability to make it work against pro pitching, but like I mentioned, you can't teach that kind of bat speed and when it comes from a quality defender, it's worth a shot here in the seventh round. The Southern California native has the arm to stick at shortstop, though he's not as twitchy as you'd like at that position and he may have to move to third base. Still, he should be at least an average defender there and it helps buy the bat some time to pull it together. There could be some Javier Baez in the profile if it comes together, though Baez is a freak athlete that far surpasses Peck in that regard. He hit .204/.391/.224 with a 13/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Lakeland.

12-350: RHP Andrew Dunford, Houston County HS [GA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $367,500 ($217,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
It was a big year for Houston County High School in the Macon area, with senior star Drew Burress and former Houston County Bear turned Georgia Bulldog Jaden Woods primed to do well on draft day. Burress priced himself out of the draft and will attend Georgia Tech, while Woods signed with the Pirates for slot value in the seventh round. So as it turns out, the highest signing bonus of any player from that school (which also recently produced Orioles pitcher DL Hall and Washington Commanders quarterback Jake Fromm) went to Andrew Dunford, who was unranked on every major public board. He's hard to miss on the diamond, standing 6'7" and already packed with muscle. The fastball sits in the low 90's and tops around 94, but with his size and athleticism, he's sure to add more velocity. He gets running and sinking action on it as well. His slider looks good when he finishes it, though it regularly backs up on him and needs more consistency. The same can be said for his changeup, which looks promising but again needs consistency. Despite his size, Dunford moves very well on the mound and stays around the zone. It's a frame you can absolutely dream on, with a huge ceiling as he works forward in his development. That kind of size and athleticism together is not commonly found. He tossed four shutout innings while striking out three and walking two in the Florida Complex League.

15-440: C Brady Cerkownyk, Connors State JC [OK] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($247,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Brady Cerkownyk is an off the radar pick from the professional baseball perspective, but you certainly knew who he was if you were facing Connors State, a small JuCo in eastern Oklahoma. To say he terrorized the Oklahoma JuCo pitching ranks would be an understatement – in 55 games, he slashed .470/.555/.985 with 27 home runs, 23 doubles, and an 18/31 strikeout to walk ratio, including a .552/.639/1.162 line at his home Biff Thompson Field in Warner. After the season, he took a brief turn in the MLB Draft League and hit .243/.356/.324 with a 10/5 strikeout to walk ratio over eleven games. There's not a ton of public information out there about Cerkownyk, but we'll do our best. He's a 6' catcher with a very well rounded bat, controlling the strike zone very well and rarely swinging and missing against Oklahoma JuCo pitching. The strikeout rate rose from 7.3% at Connors State to 22.2% in his short MLB Draft League stint, and we have to expect that it's going to be a sizable jump in competition going into pro ball. He's got some thump in the bat too with a powerful right handed swing, but it remains to be seen whether he can tap it consistently in pro ball. The Toronto native has a strong arm behind the plate and gets out of the crouch quickly, though I haven't seen any video of his glovework. He's due to regress from his 1.540 OPS at Connors State, but even half that would be a nice find for a catcher. He played just two games in the Florida Complex League, picking up one single in six at bats while striking out once and getting hit by a pitch.