With the first overall pick, the Pirates selected the best amateur pitching prospect since Gerrit Cole in 2011 or possibly even Stephen Strasburg in 2009, setting the tone for their rotation for years to come. It also set the tone for an extremely pitching-heavy draft class, including a stretch of nine straight in rounds 4-12. Not only that, but most of the pitchers Pittsburgh selected after those first couple of rounds had very similar profiles. Lots were power armed collegians that that flashed nasty stuff, but struggled to achieve the results to match. You'll see lots of ERA's starting with 5, 6, or even 7, but the Pirates aren't paying them for what they did, they're paying them for what they'll do in the future. It's a bold strategy, but I can't say I dislike it. My one main issue with this draft is that they did not come close to spending their whole bonus pool, leaving over $300,000 on the table even before the overages, which could have netted them an additional $500,000 or so on top. That's like leaving a third round pick on the table. They weren't able to sign seventeenth rounder Daniel Cuvet, so that's probably where they wanted the money to go.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.
1-1: RHP Paul Skenes, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $9.72 million. Signing bonus: $9.2 million ($521,000 below slot value).
My rank: #5. MLB Pipeline: #1. Baseball America: #2. Prospects Live: #2.
We can debate the merits of drafting elite pitchers ahead of elite hitters, and by my draft ranking you can probably tell I would have gone in a different direction, but there's no denying that Paul Skenes is elite in every sense of the word. I mentioned in the Nationals writeup that Dylan Crews might be the best college hitter I've seen since I started closely following the draft in 2015, and his teammate Skenes is easily the best amateur pitcher I've seen in that span. He originally began his career at Air Force, where he was primarily a position player at first and slashed .410/.486/.697 as a true freshman in 2021. That'll play. Meanwhile, he served as the Falcons' closer that year, then took on a rotation role in 2022 and thrived. Transferring to LSU for his junior season, he dropped hitting altogether despite being good enough to get drafted in the top couple of rounds in that regard. Already a likely first round pick as a pitcher, he took it up another level (or ten) with the best season in all of college baseball, posting a 1.69 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, and a 209/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.2 innings. Not only did those 209 strikeouts lead the nation, they were 51 ahead of second place Quinn Mathews' 158 (Stanford, now Cardinals). After beginning his college career in the low 90's and later bumping to the mid 90's, Skenes sat consistently in the upper 90's with his fastball in 2023 and touched as high as 102, velocity he maintained deep into his starts. He works between a two seamer and a four seamer, with the former shoring nice running action and the latter being a bit more generic, though neither stand out for their shape. At 97-101, pitch shape is less important. His slider was more of a tertiary pitch at Air Force, but it took a massive step forward at LSU and now registers as a plus-plus pitch with power and late sweep, missing bats at a huge rate. He can work it into more of a traditional curveball when he needs to, while he didn't use his changeup nearly as much in 2023 despite it previously being his strikeout pitch in Colorado Springs. The Southern California native still shows plus with that changeup, and the Pirates will reincorporate it more in pro ball. He pounds the strike zone with plus command, effectively working to both sides of the plate with both his fastball and his offspeed stuff, and together there's just not much you can do as a hitter. At 6'6", 235 pounds, he's extremely durable and moves well on the mound, ultimately projecting as a true ace or, at worst, a mid-rotation starter. There are two reasons I had him ranked #5 while everyone else had him top two – one is that I prefer not to trust pitchers when there are equally or near-equally elite hitters available, and the other is that there were four equally or near-equally elite hitters available. But other than that, this is pretty much the perfect profile for a pitcher. In his brief pro debut, he allowed four runs over 6.2 innings, striking out ten and walking two while working his way up to AA Altoona.
2-42: SS Mitch Jebb, Michigan State {video}
Slot value: $2.05 million. Signing bonus: $1.65 million ($395,900 below slot value).
My rank: #62. MLB Pipeline: #46. Baseball America: #62. Prospects Live: #56.
Mitch Jebb has a fascinating profile. He couldn't quite replicate his huge 2022 (.356/.448/.511, 6 HR) in 2023, where he slashed .337/.438/.495 with one home run and a 28/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games, but the junior numbers aren't too shabby either. Jebb has an East Asian style of hitting, starting with his bat resting on his shoulder with the knob pointed towards the pitcher before slowly bringing it back then flinging it through the zone as his weight works up towards the pitcher and down the first base line a bit (here's a good look from the side). Combine that with his lightning quick hands and plus bat to ball skills and you get an extreme hit over power approach. Jebb slaps line drives around the field with impunity, effortlessly guiding the barrel around the zone and rarely whiffing in the process. Though he hit just one home run in 2023, he quietly puts up solid exit velocities that would point towards fringe average or even average raw power, but turning on and lifting balls isn't his style and it will likely always play below average in games. While he may not be a home run threat in pro ball, it does mean that he should continue to hit for impact in pro ball, even if that impact manifests in doubles and triples. Jebb is also a very patient hitter that walks at a high rate, overall making for a pretty well-rounded offensive profile sans the power. A plus runner, his instincts help him make things happen on the base paths and he has stolen 34 bases in 84 games over the past two seasons at Michigan State. The Saginaw, Michigan native is a scrappy defender that moves well around the dirt and will certainly stick in the infield. However, he doesn't quite have enough arm to make it work at shortstop, so second base is most likely his long term destination. He has a chance to be a high on-base, lower power second baseman that steals plenty of bases. Jebb had a successful pro debut in which he slashed .297/.382/.398 with one home run, eleven stolen bases, and an 11/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 games at Low A Bradenton.
CBB-67: RHP Zander Mueth, Belleville East HS [IL] {video}
Slot value: $1.13 million. Signing bonus: $1.8 million ($671,800 above slot value).
My rank: #98. MLB Pipeline: #83. Baseball America: #56. Prospects Live: #108.
After saving close to a million dollars on their first two picks, the Pirates began to unload their savings here with Zander Mueth, who actually signed for more money than Mitch Jebb above him rather than attend Ole Miss. Mueth has electric stuff. His fastball sits in the low 90's over longer outings but can touch 98 in short stints with serious running action. His slider sweeps hard in the opposite direction, giving him a second above average pitch. Meanwhile, his changeup gives him a third solid option with some fading action. The 6'6" righty comes from a very low three quarters, nearly sidearm slot that provides a unique look for hitters and makes the stuff play up further. However, it also impacts his command as he hasn't quite learned to wrangle his high octane stuff consistently yet, while his running fastball and sweeping slider could probably use a cutter or a curveball to split the difference. Mueth is a great athlete that gets down the mound well and provides a ton of projection, so he could sit in the mid 90's consistently once he fills out. If Mueth can hold his command together while rounding out his arsenal a bit better, he has a chance to be a #2 or #3 starter. If not, the fastball/slider combo could play in relief. It's a high risk, high reward profile as you would expect.
3-73: 3B Garret Forrester, Oregon State {video}
Slot value: $990,300. Signing bonus: $772,500 ($117,800 below slot value).
My rank: #118. MLB Pipeline: #116. Baseball America: #159. Prospects Live: #174.
Pittsburgh saved a little more money on Garret Forrester, who brings an interesting hit over power profile at first base. He's a three year performer at Oregon State that put up his best season in 2023, slashing .341/.485/.522 with ten home runs and a 51/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games, pushing his career on-base percentage up to an elite .470 in 177 games. He never, ever chases, up there with the very best of them in his ability to force pitchers into the zone and walk at a sky high 20.1% rate over the past two seasons. When he does pull the trigger, he utilizes a flat, line drive-oriented swing to lace the ball around the field with authority. Similar to Mitch Jebb, he sneakily posts higher exit velocities than you'd expect and in this case has above average raw power in the tank, but also like Jebb, he's not looking to turn on and lift the ball. Forrester's pure bat to ball skills are just average, perhaps a tick above, but his strength combined with his ability to choose good pitches to hit could help him incorporate that power into his game a bit more naturally than perhaps Jebb. If Pittsburgh chooses to go that route with his development, he could turn into a right handed Kyle Manzardo, though likely with more whiffs. The Pirates drafted Forrester as a third baseman, and he has seen time there, but he's a below average athlete with well below average speed and it's hard to see him providing much value at the hot corner. He likely profiles as a first baseman long term, where you'd hope to see him tap that power a bit more often in order to play every day. He hit .278/.552/.278 with a 7/10 strikeout to walk ratio in a brief six game debut for Class A Bradenton, not hitting any extra base hits but walking in over a third of his plate appearances.
4-104: RHP Carlson Reed, West Virginia {video}
Slot value: $646,900. Signing bonus: $600,000 ($46,900 below slot value).
My rank: #116. MLB Pipeline: #196. Baseball America: #180. Prospects Live: #112.
This is one of my favorite picks of the draft for Pittsburgh. Carlson Reed is an electric arm out of the Pirates' backyard, and he's trending hard in the right direction. This past season, Reed had the best year of his college career with a 2.61 ERA and a 60/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 innings, and I think his best days are ahead of him. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and can touch 98 in short stints, and though the pitch has average life, it plays way up because he gets elite extension down the mound to release the ball right in front of the hitter's face. His best pitch, though, is a plus sweeper that dives across the plate and should continue to miss a ton of bats in pro ball. He also shows an above average changeup to round out a really nasty arsenal. However, the 6'4" righty struggles with command due to his long arm action, having difficulty repeating his release point after all that length. He walked 21.4% of his opponents on the Cape last summer and 14.5% at WVU this past spring, a mark that will need to come down considerably. Due to that command, he's probably a reliever, but he still has significant upside. The Atlanta-area native is extremely young for a college junior, actually more age appropriate for a college sophomore, and has that much more time to smooth things out. With three potential plus pitches, he doesn't need plus or even average command to succeed as a starter, so if the Pirates can just get him living in the zone and let his lack of command carry the ball to the corners, the stuff is deceptive enough to miss bats even over the heart of the plate when mixed right. I'm bullish on the upside here. In his pro debut, he allowed seven runs (two earned) over seven innings while striking out six and walking three in the Florida Complex League.
5-140: RHP Patrick Reilly, Vanderbilt {video}
Slot value: $455,600. Signing bonus: $453,100 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #179. MLB Pipeline: #219. Baseball America: #233. Prospects Live: #283.
Patrick Reilly is an enigmatic prospect to say the least. He first popped onto the national radar with a huge performance in the fall of his senior year of high school, but the pandemic shortened spring season didn't give scouts a large enough sample size to sign him away from a strong commitment to Vanderbilt. He immediately took on a significant role as a swingman as a true freshman, which is an extremely impressive feat at a program like Vanderbilt and speaks volumes to his talent. However, after that initial push as a freshman, he has stagnated now for a couple of years and scouts aren't quite sure what to make of him. His three seasons have all been pretty similar, and overall he has a 5.25 ERA and a 187/93 strikeout to walk ratio over 144 innings for his career. He has also appeared in the Cape Cod League in three separate summers where he was a bit better but still inconsistent, combining for a 2.90 ERA and a 34/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 40.1 innings. Reilly's power fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and has touched 99 in short stints, with enough riding action to miss barrels but not quite enough to miss a ton of bats. He can cut the fastball to create some extra movement down closer to 90, or he can work in a true slider that ranges anywhere from plus to fringe-average. There's a changeup in the arsenal as well, but it's certainly his fourth pitch. Reilly has a very athletic, uptempo delivery that looks good from a scouting perspective, but he struggles to repeat it and has never been able to take the necessary step forward with his command. It's frustrating, because the 6'3" righty has an ideal pitcher's frame and moves very well on the mound with great athleticism, but alas it's where we are at this point. Reilly certainly has all the ingredients to start. He has a power arm, snaps off some nasty breaking balls, can give another look with his cutter, and is athletic enough to withstand a long season. Vanderbilt is a tremendous program and he has not been able to take the next step there, but if the Pirates can find a little more hop for his fastball and can get him more consistent with his offspeed stuff and command, the upside is there. The Jersey Shore native was similarly enigmatic in his pro debut, where he posted a 5.91 ERA and a 19/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.2 innings at Class A Bradenton.
6-167: LHP Hunter Furtado, Alabama {video}
Slot value: $351,400. Signing bonus: $348,900 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #192. Baseball America: #359. Prospects Live: #321.
Hunter Furtado gives Pittsburgh yet another high octane arm. After beginning his career at Wake Forest, he pitched two years at Alabama but never earned consistent innings. 2023 was his best year yet, in which he put up a 4.75 ERA and a 38/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 innings, though he performed much better out of conference than against those stronger SEC lineups. The fastball sits in the mid 90's and can touch 98 from a very high slot, while his slider flashes plus with sweeping action and his changeup plays nicely off his fastball. It's definitely big league stuff, but to this point his below average command has made everything play down. Long and lanky at 6'4", he has trouble repeating his mechanics that feature significant effort. He especially struggles to locate his offspeed stuff, which forces him to pitch off his fastball and also plays a part in his stuff playing down. That said, like with Patrick Reilly (albeit with a very different profile), the ingredients are there. The South Florida native has plenty of size, length, athleticism, and arm strength, and his entire arsenal looks nasty when he does manage to locate it. You can often chalk poor command for lanky high school pitchers up to growing into their body, but Furtado may be in that boat even as a 21 year old college arm. The Pirates are buying in and think they can make him into a power reliever, or if things really come together, a stuff-over-command starting pitcher. It's a tall task but an interesting one to follow.
7-197: LHP Jaden Woods, Georgia {video}
Slot value: $273,800. Signing bonus: $271,300 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #141. MLB Pipeline: #236. Baseball America: #152. Prospects Live: #203.
Jaden Woods continues to follow the theme of enigmatic college arms, and he's certainly an interesting one. He was progressing nicely over the first two years of his Georgia career, then created some helium with an extremely strong four start stretch early in his junior season. However, he stagnated during the middle part of the season then barely pitched after biceps issues flared up in April, finishing with a 5.77 ERA and a 62/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 48.1 innings. Woods sits in the low 90's with his fastball, touching 96 in short stints but sitting closer to 90 in longer outings with some riding life. His slider is extremely inconsistent, looking like a plus pitch at times but frequently backing up and looking like a fringy, loopy slurve. He's begun to incorporate his changeup more now that he's jumped into a starting role, looking like an average pitch. As I've said about most of the pitchers in this Pirates draft class, the ingredients are there for an impact starting pitcher. He's a great athlete on the mound with a quick arm that repeats his delivery well and can get into the mid 90's with a sometimes-banger breaking ball. However, inconsistency has been his downfall so far. The offspeed stuff isn't always there, the command isn't always there, and he has not proven that he's durable enough to handle a starting pitcher's role. Pittsburgh thinks they can build him up and help him put it together, in which case he could be a #3 or #4 starting pitcher if it all clicks. The Macon-area native looked sharp and healthy in his pro debut, posting a 3.14 ERA and a 21/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 14.1 innings at Low A Bradenton.
11-317: LHP Magdiel Cotto, Kentucky {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $197,500 ($47,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #267. Prospects Live: #413.
Surprise, Magdiel Cotto is yet another power armed, enigmatic prospect that has struggled to put it all together in SEC play. He began his career at South Carolina, but transferred to Kentucky after one season and in three seasons has never posted an ERA below 6.00. After serving as a swingman in 2022, he was a full time reliever in 2023 and posted a 6.00 ERA and a 26/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 innings for the Wildcats. Interestingly, he was at his best last summer on the Cape, where he posted a 3.73 ERA and a 31/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.1 innings, but he never matched that in Lexington. Cotto is a big guy at 6'4", 250 pounds, using his size and arm strength to sit in the low to mid 90's and touch 97 in short stints. He rips off an above average slider that misses bats at its best, while his hard changeup gives a nice third look. The problem, of course, has been strike throwing. The Charlotte-area native has a very loose delivery, so loose that he struggles to repeat it and always seems to be working from behind in the count aside from during that one run through the Cape. At this point, he's a long shot to start in pro ball, but his fastball/slider combo could work in relief if the Pirates can tighten him up a little bit and get him executing to both sides of the plate. His history on the Cape, which is better than the similar prospects ahead of him in this Pirates class, suggests that is a distinct possibility. In his brief pro debut, he allowed two runs over 6.1 innings while striking out seven and walking three between the Florida Complex League and Low A Bradenton.
12-347: RHP Khristian Curtis, Arizona State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $497,500 ($347,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: #150. MLB Pipeline: #197. Baseball America: #126. Prospects Live: #154.
Khristian Curtis follows the theme as well, so I'll stop repeating it. He began his career at Texas A&M, but barely saw the mound and transferred to Arizona State after two years. There he pitched to uneven results, posting a 7.03 ERA and a 58/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 innings, at one point allowing eight earned runs in back to back starts before turning around and firing seven shutout innings in his next start. Surprise surprise, Curtis has loud stuff. He sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with his fastball, and he can change up the movement patterns where he needs to. He has a deep arsenal of offspeed pitches, with a sharp, above average slider standing out as the best. There is also a cutter, curveball, and changeup in there, though none particularly stand out. The 6'5" righty is very projectable and moves well on the mound, though there are moving parts in his delivery that cause inconsistencies in his command. He has the arsenal to start, so finding a way to more effectively mix and executive his pitches will go a long way in reaching that goal. The Pirates certainly believe in the arm talent given that they handed him late fourth round money to sign here in the twelfth round. I do believe he has a better chance to start than most other arms the Pirates drafted (aside from Paul Skenes of course).
13-377: 2B Charles McAdoo, San Jose State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #342. Prospects Live: unranked.
Charles McAdoo has a fun profile and breaks a streak of nine consecutive pitchers drafted. After only earning sporadic playing time as a freshman, he grabbed a starting spot as a sophomore and never looked back, slashing .335/.408/.585 with 22 home runs and a 74/51 strikeout to walk ratio in 114 games over the past two seasons. His raw strength and strong feel for the barrel help him rope the ball to all fields with authority, using a leveraged right handed swing that produces plenty of hard contact. An aggressive hitter, he bumped his walk rate from 7.3% as a sophomore to 11.9% as a junior but can still be prone to chasing quality stuff out of the zone. McAdoo has above average power and it played up last summer in the Northwoods League, where he hit ten home runs in 43 games, and overall I think he's a real sleeper to turn into a quality big league bat. The pressure will be on the bat, however, as he's just decent at second base and could be forced to left field by a better defender. The ceiling here is a bat-first second baseman that can rope 15-20 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages, which I think is a great find in the thirteenth round. The Bay Area native got off to a red hot, and I mean red hot, start to his pro career by hitting .548/.641/.871 over his first eight games (including a 6-6, 2 HR performance in game #4), but cooled off after that and overall hit .302/.412/.510 with five home runs and a 22/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 games at Low A Bradenton.
16-467: C Justin Miknis, Kent State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $75,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
This pick won't make headlines, but I definitely want to cover it because it's not often the Pirates bring in guys from Western PA. Justin Miknis will hope to join the ranks of Neil Walker (Gibsonia), David Bednar (Mars), and Joe Beimel (St. Mary's) as recent Yinzers to play for the Pirates. Hailing from DuBois, Pennsylvania, a small town on I-80 about eighty miles northeast of Pittsburgh, Miknis attended DuBois Central Catholic High School then crossed the border to play at Kent State for college. He didn't play as a freshman, but he has been an excellent everyday contributor over the past three seasons and has hit .319/.405/.505 with 20 home runs and a 115/81 strikeout to walk ratio over 159 games for his career. There is no standout tool here, as you might. expect from a cheap senior sign in the sixteenth round, but he does a lot well. Miknis has a quick, clean left handed swing and uses the whole field effectively with a line drive approach, also showing enough power to turn on the ball for home runs to the pull side. He's a pretty disciplined hitter and takes good at bats, so his offensive game doesn't have many holes. He's also a strong, agile defender that was named to the MAC All-Defensive team in both 2022 and 2023, so he'll stick behind the plate in pro ball. Given that he turned 23 two months after the draft, it's a pretty clear backup profile that may never be more than organizational filler, but you don't see a lot of Western Pennsylvanians in pro ball and it's fun to see the Pirates snatch one up. He didn't hit much in his pro debut, slashing .152/.317/.182 with a 12/8 strikeout to walk ratio over eleven games at Low A Bradenton.
No comments:
Post a Comment