Thursday, September 21, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Detroit Tigers

Full list of draftees

It was an extremely high school-heavy draft class for the Tigers, who drafted nine preps overall and signed seven of them, including four in their first five picks. It appears they'll be playing the long game, in a sense creating the next wave of talent that should be up sometime in the 2026-2027 range. The class is heavy on position players, heavy on talent that can stick in the dirt (just one outfielder drafted after Max Clark), and especially early, heavy on advanced hitters. I like most of the picks here and I think Detroit is moving in the right direction with this class.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-3: OF Max Clark, Franklin Community HS [IN] {video}
Slot value: $8.34 million. Signing bonus: $7.7 million ($641,700 below slot value).
My rank: #4. MLB Pipeline: #5. Baseball America: #5. Prospects Live: #5.
The Tigers popped the first high school position player off the board, and in doing so they brought in as dynamic a talent as you're going to find. Max Clark is already all over the internet as a social media-savvy up and coming baseball star, and he has the talent to match. He's not huge at 6'1", 190 pounds, but he's ideally proportioned at that size with plenty of lean muscle and an ultra projectable, long limbed frame. He has as long and as decorated a track record as any player in the prep class, with extremely consistent production against the top arms in his class going back a long time now. He takes great at bats, uses the whole field, and never tries to do too much at the plate with a clean left handed swing. Hit over power for most of his prep career, he has been hitting the weight room hard and has begun to turn on the ball more often, with at least average power now but likely to be above average power in the future as he fills out. Right there, you have not just a potential but a likely plus hitter with above average power, but it doesn't stop there. Clark is a plus-plus runner that moves gracefully on both sides of the ball, playing extremely well to his gap to gap hitting approach that should enable him to hit plenty of doubles and triples. Throw in his plus-plus arm and strong instincts, and you have a potential plus defender in center field to boot. It's an extraordinarily well-rounded profile that's a bit reminiscent of an early career Curtis Granderson or Grady Sizemore. To top it off, Clark is extremely competitive and well versed in the spotlight, with a likable demeanor and mature work ethic. It's tough to live in the spotlight like that (of course I am not speaking from experience here), and it will continue to be tough for the all-American kid, but he has handled it with grace to this point and I'd certainly bet on him to continue to achieve the lofty expectations around him. He hit well in the Florida Complex League but struggled a bit with an aggressive promotion to Low A Lakeland, overall slashing .224/.383/.376 with two home runs and a 25/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games.

CBA-37: SS Kevin McGonigle, Monsignor Bonner HS [PA] {video}
Slot value: $2.31 million. Signing bonus: $2.85 million ($540,500 above slot value).
My rank: #31. MLB Pipeline: #33. Baseball America: #25. Prospects Live: #21.
This is another fun profile that I'm curious to follow. Kevin McGonigle is one of the best pure hitters in the country, easily one of the most pro ready bats in the entire high school crop. The Tigers signed him away from an Auburn commitment here for most of the money they saved on Max Clark, rolling in for around the slot value of the #28 pick here at #37. McGonigle takes exceptional at bats, looking to do damage early with aggressive hacks but adeptly toning it down and making adjustments as he gets deeper in. You can't fool him with the same pitch twice. Showing a compact left handed swing, he uses the whole field effectively and can turn on the ball for some moderate pull side power to keep pitchers honest. It's certainly a hit over power profile, but one that could flirt with .400 on-base percentages while knocking 15-20 home runs per season at peak. The Philadelphia native also moves very well at shortstop, showing great body control and quick twitch athleticism despite average speed. However, he may be pushed to second or third base in the long run because he likes to set his feet before he throws, lacking the pure arm strength to make those tough throws on the run especially to his right. It's a profile that may not have the highest ceiling due to a lack of power projection at 5'10", but he has a chance to be a significant big league contributor for a long time. He hit the ground running in his pro debut, slashing .315/.452/.411 with one home run and a 10/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Lakeland.

2-45: SS Max Anderson, Nebraska {video}
Slot value: $1.91 million. Signing bonus: $1.43 million ($476,550 below slot value).
My rank: #44. MLB Pipeline: #91. Baseball America: #71. Prospects Live: #61.
I love this pick, especially since the Tigers saved nearly half a million dollars to bring in a very legitimate second round talent with a signing bonus closer to the #57 slot here at #45. Max Anderson is a career .350 hitter at Nebraska that has never stopped hitting, including breaking out for a massive junior season in which he slashed .414/.461/.770 with 21 home runs and a 29/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. He's also a two year performer in the Cape Cod League, sitting at .297/.356/.405 over a two year sample against elite pitching. Anderson has some of the best bat to ball skills in the class, showing the ability to find the fat part of the barrel no matter where it's pitched, including outside the zone. That's a very good thing because he's an extremely aggressive hitter that chases over 30% of the time, so if he's a good bad ball hitter, have at it. Not only that, but Anderson is one of the rare amateur bats that thrives against both velocity and offspeed stuff, showing the ability to recognize pitches, find his timing, and do damage no matter the location nor the pitch type. That should ease his transition to pro ball considerably despite his propensity to chase out of the zone. Once he makes contact, which is awesome, he has sneaky above average power that could give him 20+ home runs per season to go with his high averages, though he hasn't proven that power so much with wood just yet. The Hastings, Nebraska native is not a great athlete so shortstop probably won't happen despite the Tigers drafting him there. With a fringy arm and below average speed, even third base may be a challenge, so Anderson could end up at first base when it's all said and done. Finding a way to make it work at second or third base would obviously elevate the profile, but fortunately he has plenty of bat to profile even at first base. He hit .289/.345/.445 with two home runs and a 26/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games at Low A Lakeland.

3-76: LHP Paul Wilson, Lakeridge HS [OR] {video}
Slot value: $945,100. Signing bonus: $1.7 million ($754,900 above slot value).
My rank: #111. MLB Pipeline: #51. Baseball America: #51. Prospects Live: #116.
Paul Wilson represents the Tigers' largest over slot bonus in this class, getting the money for the #50 pick here at #76 to sign away from an Oregon State commitment. His father, Trevor Wilson, was a reliable starting pitcher for the Giants in the late 80's and early 90's, and now Paul will get his shot. Well-known in the Pacific Northwest already with a presence on the national stage, he really pushed himself up boards with a strong spring and earned his large signing bonus. He sits in the low to mid 90's and was reaching the upper 90's in the spring, getting more hop on his fastball to help miss bats. He shows nice feel to spin the ball with both a slider and a curveball, with the curve especially looking like a potential putaway pitch in pro ball. There's a changeup, too, with some fading action but overall more of an average pitch at this point. The 6'3" lefty looks pretty filled out as is and does throw with some effort from a short arm delivery, which could lead to relief risk. However, he did a better job this spring at holding his command together and maintaining his peak velocity and stuff, leading to increased optimism that he can start, and he's plenty physical enough to do so. The Tigers are buying big arm strength with feel to spin the ball and a positive trajectory, which is even better when you're getting it all from the left side.

4-107: SS Carson Rucker, Goodpasture Christian HS [TN] {video}
Slot value: $627,900. Signing bonus: $772,500 ($144,600 above slot value).
My rank: #135. MLB Pipeline: #132. Baseball America: #297. Prospects Live: #190.
The Tigers kept at it with the high school picks here, pulling in the younger brother of Twins prospect Jake Rucker. While Jake reached AA this year, Carson will just be getting started with another over slot bonus to keep him away from a Tennessee commitment, where he would have played at his brother's alma mater. Carson is a well rounded hitter with a strong, projectable 6'2" frame that he has begun to fill out. He takes powerful, leveraged hacks from the right side to produce above average power, though the swing can get a little long at times and create some swing and miss. It's nothing egregious, though, and he's a solid pure hitter that can handle advanced stuff while still doing damage. He's solid at shortstop, but he'll likely get pushed to third base by a springier defender, especially if he slows down with age, but he should stick on the left side of the infield. It's a nice profile with a lot going for it that could develop into a solid every day contributor as he progresses. The bloodlines are nice to have as well, though it should be noted that the Nashville-area native is on the older side for a high school senior and turned 19 just a month after the draft. He hit .242/.390/.364 with one home run and a 9/6 strikeout to walk ratio in his nine game Florida Complex League debut.

5-143: RHP Jaden Hamm, Middle Tennessee State {video}
Slot value: $442,200. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($44,700 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #218. Baseball America: #186. Prospects Live: #140.
Jaden Hamm jumped on the map with a strong fall practice last year and really established himself with an eleven strikeout one hitter against Evansville in March, though in all he was inconsistent and was blown up in a few starts. Overall, he showed a 5.31 ERA and a 93/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.2 innings and the Tigers are buying the guy they saw when Hamm was at his best. The fastball sits in the low 90's and can touch 97 in short stints, with huge riding action that makes it an above average pitch when he locates it. He adds a hammer curveball and a nice fading changeup, though those two pitches are less consistent than his fastball. The 6'1" righty has long arm action and comes from an over the top release point, which some hitters can get a good luck at especially if he's behind in the count and they're sitting on the fastball. Hamm does generally do a good job of locating that fastball but is less consistent in that regard with his offspeed stuff. The Tigers will want to focus on helping the Middle Tennessee native find more consistency with those offspeed pitches, which could make him a solid back end starter. If not, the fastball/curveball could play very well out of the bullpen especially as he likely adds a tick of velocity in that role. He looked extremely sharp in his pro debut, tossing twelve shutout innings (one unearned run) while striking out twelve and walking just one between the Florida Complex League and Low A Lakeland.

6-170: C Bennett Lee, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $342,400. Signing bonus: $297,500 ($44,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #428. Prospects Live: unranked.
It may look like a backup catcher profile on the surface, and it probably is, but Bennett Lee is a fun prospect to get into your system regardless. He burst onto the scene with a massive freshman season at Tulane in 2021 (.440/.527/.600, 4 HR), then came back to earth a little bit as a sophomore. He transferred to Wake Forest in 2023 and held down the starting catcher role for the Omaha-bound Demon Deacons, slashing .303/.435/.472 with seven home runs and an even 32/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games. It's not a standout offensive profile, but it's one that gets it done. Starting from a quiet setup, he uses the whole field and find the barrel consistently for hard contact, profiling for fringy raw power overall. He's very patient in the box and draws a ton of walks, helping him get on base at a .426 clip over his three year college career and providing a nice baseline for his offensive value. The offensive bar is lower for catchers, especially if they can defend like Lee. He has an above average glove back there with a strong arm, showing off his chops by working with the best staff in college baseball this spring. A hard nosed competitor, he'll be a great add to the clubhouse that will make his pitchers better, which is exactly what you want in a backup catcher. He showed off his patience by slashing .200/.444/.217 with an 11/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games at Low A Lakeland.

7-200: SS John Peck, Pepperdine {video}
Slot value: $267,000. Signing bonus: $222,500 ($44,500 below slot value).
My rank: #189. MLB Pipeline: #243. Baseball America: #150. Prospects Live: #176.
John Peck is certainly an interesting profile. He had a huge sophomore season in 2022 (.361/.417/.578, 7 HR) but struggled on the Cape over the summer (.182/.248/.245) and couldn't replicate his big sophomore season in 2023, when he slashed .272/.353/.441 with six home runs and a 51/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games. Peck is physically gifted if nothing else. Not huge at six feet tall, he has explosive bat speed from the right side that produces sneaky plus raw power that you rarely find this late in the draft, much less from a shortstop. However, he doesn't tap that power much in games and never hit more than seven home runs in a season at Pepperdine because he struggles to square the ball up and rarely turns on it with authority. The swing gets swoopy and he's prone to chasing breaking balls, leading to a high strikeout rate that was really exacerbated on the Cape, where he struck out 31.8% of the time. I'm far from sold on Peck's ability to make it work against pro pitching, but like I mentioned, you can't teach that kind of bat speed and when it comes from a quality defender, it's worth a shot here in the seventh round. The Southern California native has the arm to stick at shortstop, though he's not as twitchy as you'd like at that position and he may have to move to third base. Still, he should be at least an average defender there and it helps buy the bat some time to pull it together. There could be some Javier Baez in the profile if it comes together, though Baez is a freak athlete that far surpasses Peck in that regard. He hit .204/.391/.224 with a 13/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Lakeland.

12-350: RHP Andrew Dunford, Houston County HS [GA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $367,500 ($217,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
It was a big year for Houston County High School in the Macon area, with senior star Drew Burress and former Houston County Bear turned Georgia Bulldog Jaden Woods primed to do well on draft day. Burress priced himself out of the draft and will attend Georgia Tech, while Woods signed with the Pirates for slot value in the seventh round. So as it turns out, the highest signing bonus of any player from that school (which also recently produced Orioles pitcher DL Hall and Washington Commanders quarterback Jake Fromm) went to Andrew Dunford, who was unranked on every major public board. He's hard to miss on the diamond, standing 6'7" and already packed with muscle. The fastball sits in the low 90's and tops around 94, but with his size and athleticism, he's sure to add more velocity. He gets running and sinking action on it as well. His slider looks good when he finishes it, though it regularly backs up on him and needs more consistency. The same can be said for his changeup, which looks promising but again needs consistency. Despite his size, Dunford moves very well on the mound and stays around the zone. It's a frame you can absolutely dream on, with a huge ceiling as he works forward in his development. That kind of size and athleticism together is not commonly found. He tossed four shutout innings while striking out three and walking two in the Florida Complex League.

15-440: C Brady Cerkownyk, Connors State JC [OK] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($247,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Brady Cerkownyk is an off the radar pick from the professional baseball perspective, but you certainly knew who he was if you were facing Connors State, a small JuCo in eastern Oklahoma. To say he terrorized the Oklahoma JuCo pitching ranks would be an understatement – in 55 games, he slashed .470/.555/.985 with 27 home runs, 23 doubles, and an 18/31 strikeout to walk ratio, including a .552/.639/1.162 line at his home Biff Thompson Field in Warner. After the season, he took a brief turn in the MLB Draft League and hit .243/.356/.324 with a 10/5 strikeout to walk ratio over eleven games. There's not a ton of public information out there about Cerkownyk, but we'll do our best. He's a 6' catcher with a very well rounded bat, controlling the strike zone very well and rarely swinging and missing against Oklahoma JuCo pitching. The strikeout rate rose from 7.3% at Connors State to 22.2% in his short MLB Draft League stint, and we have to expect that it's going to be a sizable jump in competition going into pro ball. He's got some thump in the bat too with a powerful right handed swing, but it remains to be seen whether he can tap it consistently in pro ball. The Toronto native has a strong arm behind the plate and gets out of the crouch quickly, though I haven't seen any video of his glovework. He's due to regress from his 1.540 OPS at Connors State, but even half that would be a nice find for a catcher. He played just two games in the Florida Complex League, picking up one single in six at bats while striking out once and getting hit by a pitch.

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