Thursday, September 28, 2023

The top 12 unsigned high school pitching prospects from the 2023 draft

The is the first time since I began making draft boards in 2015 that no high school pitcher in my top 50 prospects will be reaching campus. Guess NIL isn't as big of a draw as we thought it was. However, that doesn't mean we don't have a ton of talent reaching campus. Half of the names on this list have been clocked at 97 or higher already and five ranked in my top one hundred prospects. They're spread all around the country, with the top eleven names all going to different schools and only LSU pulling in a second pitcher right at the end. In the NIL era, it's also nice to see two mid major programs put names on this list in Dallas Baptist and Coastal Carolina, further establishing themselves as two of the preeminent mid major programs in the country. The SEC does still dominate this list with half of the names, while the ACC and the lame duck Pac-12 picked up two apiece.
Note, the ranking in parentheses denotes their ranking on my 2023 draft board.

1. (#52) LHP Cam Johnson, Louisiana State.
LSU gets everything they want, don't they? After producing the top two picks in this past MLB Draft and, they'll get the top high school pitcher in the country to go unsigned. Similar to Dylan Crews three years ago, Cam Johnson will come to Baton Rouge from the Florida prep ranks, though he's originally a Maryland native. Johnson has massive stuff, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and touching 98 with hard run and sink. He shows an above average slider that misses plenty of bats, though his changeup is a distant third pitch to this point and needs further development. The 6'5", 240 pound lefty is extremely physical, already looking the part of a power SEC arm. He previously looked raw on the mound and struggled with command, but he came out in 2023 looking much more fluid and balanced to work closer to average in that regard. Johnson can still yank his release point a bit when he gets tired and the LSU staff will look to help keep him on the positive trajectory he had been on in that regard. Of note, the Washington, DC-area product did miss time at the end of the season with elbow trouble, which may have been what scared teams off from giving him the multi-million dollar signing bonus his talent warranted. Beyond the injury, given the primarily two pitch arsenal and his still-developing command, there also remains considerable relief risk that he'll want to shed as he settles in in Baton Rouge. The Tigers' pitching staff is always incredibly deep and he'll join a youth movement alongside many other former prep studs like Gavin Guidry, Jaden Noot, Chase Shores, and Jake Brown (also on this list), all of whom were famous high school pitching prospects.

2. (#57) RHP Joey Volchko, Stanford.
Stanford is known throughout the West Coast as one of toughest schools to sign kids away from, and in 2023 they picked up the top unsigned pitcher west of the Mississippi. Similar to Cam Johnson above him on this list, Joey Volchko brings a power arm and then some. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 for now, coming in with tough overhead angle and even more explosive riding action that makes it a plus pitch. Volchko can also rip through a breaking ball with the best of them, showing a distinct curveball and slider that both look like above average pitches. He was trending up hard after a huge spring season at Redwood High School in Visalia, with all of his stuff showing a little extra hop, and at Stanford it will immediately be enough to get Pac-12 (then ACC?) hitters out. For now, the 6'4" righty has a lot of movement in his delivery, using his long limbs heavily to generate explosion off the mound. That impacts his command at this point and leads to relief questions in the long run, but for now, Stanford will look to compose him a little more fluidly. There is true Friday night upside here, and the Central Valley has done Stanford well recently with names like Brock Jones (Clovis) and Malcolm Moore (Sacramento). The Cardinal also lost four pitchers in the draft in Quinn Matthews (Cardinals, 4th round), Ryan Bruno (Diamondbacks, 7th), Joey Dixon (Astros, 7th), and Drew Dowd (Rays, 8th), so Volchko will be a welcome addition to a program that always pitches well.

3. (#81) RHP Liam Peterson, Florida.
Florida is another school that never hurts for pitching depth, but Liam Peterson has the upside to step to the forefront of that lauded staff. While Cam Johnson and Joey Volchko had loud springs that pushed their stock up, Peterson is the opposite. A member of the most talented high school pitching staff in the country at Calvary Christian in Clearwater alongside Blue Jays (way over slot) fourth rounder Landen Maroudis and fellow top prospect/brand new Arkansas Razorback Hunter Dietz, he established himself as the top prospect of the bunch in the summer of 2022. At the time, he was up to 97 with his fastball with plenty of hop while showing an above average sweeping slider and a newer changeup he was developing. Extremely projectable at 6'5", he moved well on the mound and looked like he had all the ingredients to turn into a frontline starter. However, his 2023 spring was much more up and down as he looked to be overthrowing at times and his breaking ball got slurvy. While the command was never pinpoint, with his uptempo delivery in the spring his strikes were sporadic and he looked much more like a reliever than a starter. Still, Florida is excellent at developing pitching and should know exactly how to get the best out of him. He still has the arm strength and the projectable, athletic frame, so if he can calm that delivery back down and find more consistency with his offspeed stuff, he can absolutely become a Friday night starter in Gainesville.

4. (#90) LHP Adam Hachman, Arkansas.
Adam Hachman finds himself in a similar position to Liam Peterson on this list. Last summer, he established himself as one of the best left handed pitchers in the class, perhaps second only to eventual Marlins CBA pick Thomas White, who signed for first round money. When he's healthy and on, he shows one of the most electric operations in the class. The fastball was up to 99 over the summer with serious hop from a vertical slot, with big time arm speed promising that one day he could live closer to that peak more consistently. The curveball and changeup have always been a bit behind, still searching for their identities a bit, though the curveball flashes above average and the changeup shows signs of becoming a solid pitch in its own right. Ultra projectable at 6'5", he's a great athlete on the mound with a very elastic delivery, though he's still growing into his body and can yank his release point. Unfortunately, his spring went about as poorly as you could imagine. He came out of the gate looking much more rigid, with his fastball sitting closer to 90, his offspeed stuff losing the progress it had made over the summer, and his command backing up significantly. Soon we found out why, as he went down with Tommy John surgery in April and missed the rest of the season. That means he may not pitch at all in his true freshman season in Fayetteville either, but the upside is tremendous when he hopefully comes back fully healthy in 2025. If it was truly just the injury that was holding him back this spring, the St. Louis-area product could front the rotation by his draft year. The stock may be down right now, but we're still talking about an explosive 6'5" lefty that has touched 99 in the past, which does not come around every year.

5. (#97) RHP Justin Lee, UCLA.
Two years ago, UCLA got the top unsigned high schooler in the class, Gage Jump, to campus. Unfortunately injuries completely derailed his time in Westwood and he wound up throwing just 16.1 innings in his two seasons, then transferred to LSU this year like everybody else. Two years after pulling Jump through the draft, UCLA is getting another metric outlier pitcher to campus, also from the Southern California private school ranks. Justin Lee may not come in with quite the same fanfare, but he's very interesting. The fastball velocity isn't overwhelming, sitting in the low 90's and touching 95, but that will tick up. Interestingly, it has near-perfect spin efficiency (meaning no spin is lost to gyro, or football-like, rotation) so as he adds velocity it will be very conducive to adding riding life. His splitter is his best offspeed pitch right now, diving off the plate and looking more advanced than the vast majority of prep changeups, while his slider is a tick behind but flashes some promise. The 6'3" righty moves extremely well on the mound, getting great extension and a low release while maintaining that extremely clean release contributing to that perfectly efficient fastball. I'd be very interested to see if the UCLA coaching staff decides to get creative with Lee, whose stuff works just a little differently than most other pitchers. He's very projectable and figures to add at least a few ticks of velocity as he fills out. The command is improving but it is still fringy for now, as he doesn't always repeat his delivery right and can get off line. If he can figure out his breaking ball and his command, he could come out a first round pick in three years.

6. (#110) RHP Chance Mako, North Carolina State.
One of the better prospects NC State has pulled through to campus in recent years, Chance Mako has a chance to do some special things in Raleigh even if he still has a few things to iron out. At his best, he already shows a low 90's fastball touching 96 with riding life while flashing above average with his slider and working in a tertiary changeup. At an extremely projectable 6'6", he figures to add a ton of strength in the near future as well, likely pushing the whole arsenal even further. However, there are some things he needs to work on. Presently, he tends to fade deeper into starts or into busy pitching schedules, losing a tick off his fastball and dipping closer to 90. While the slider is extremely promising and looks like it could be a plus pitch in time, it's presently very inconsistent and can get loopy. Mako needs to focus on filling out that massive frame, which will hopefully help him not only maintain but increase his peak velocity and become a true power pitcher. He's already made strides with his delivery, smoothing out most of the violence and becoming a better strike thrower in the process. The NC State coaching staff will want to continue to streamline him in that regard, and as he gets more consistent with his offspeed stuff in addition to his command, he could become the next Wolfpack ace. I like the way the Salisbury, NC native is trending and I think he'll be able to make the necessary adjustments to reach that ceiling and become an early pick in 2025, when he'll be just barely eligible as a sophomore.

7. (#114) RHP James Ellwanger, Dallas Baptist.
Dallas Baptist has turned itself into a real juggernaut lately as one of the best mid major programs in the country, and now we're starting to see them pull big time recruits through the draft. James Ellwanger is not too dissimilar a prospect to Chance Mako with a deeper arsenal and a tick less projection. His fastball velocity is currently all over the place, as he can touch 98 on his best days but can also dip into the upper 80's when he doesn't quite have it, though it's trending in the right direction. His slider is currently his best offspeed pitch, looking comfortably above average, while his distinct curveball is more of an average pitch and his promising splitter, although inconsistent, could be above average in time. Like Mako, he needs to grow into his large, 6'5" frame and maintain his fastball velocity a bit better, but he does have the benefit of more consistent offspeed stuff. At this point, his delivery can get a bit stiff at times, leading to fringy command, but he's athletic on the mound for the most part and that should get ironed out. Dallas Baptist just had six pitchers drafted and signed, an incredible feat for a school that does not compete at the Division I level for any other sport, giving him some room to earn meaningful innings quickly. He'll certainly want to do so because he's extremely old for an incoming freshman, already having turned 19 before he graduated high school, and he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2025.

8. (#126) LHP Zane Adams, Alabama.
We'll stick in the far northern Houston suburbs with Zane Adams, who played high school ball in the same county as James Ellwanger and is two days from sharing a birthday with him. He reminds me a bit of a left handed Will Sanders, who was just drafted by the Cubs in the fourth round out of South Carolina in this past draft, and even a natural, median progression at Alabama could make him a similar prospect in three years. Adams presently sits in the low 90's, touching 95 with some downhill plane and moderate life. Like Sanders, who also works downhill, he stands out more for his offspeed stuff than his heater. The Porter, Texas native has great feel for his above average curveball, effectively locating it to both sides of the plate. That's a separator for a high school lefty. He also shows off a quality changeup, giving him a very advanced three pitch mix from the left side. Adams is very projectable at 6'4" with a springy, athletic delivery, though he's still learning to keep it in sync consistently. His overall command is average despite his strong ability to spot his curveball. Adams is an advanced lefty that should be able to grab innings quickly in Tuscaloosa, and like Ellwanger, he'll certainly want to do so because he turned 19 as a high school senior and will be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2025.

9. (#131) RHP Cameron Flukey, Coastal Carolina.
For the second year in a row, Coastal Carolina will land a huge pitching recruit from this list. A year ago, they brought down Levi Huesman from the Richmond area after he ranked #110 on my list, though he struggled to a 9.36 ERA as a freshman and transferred to Vanderbilt for his sophomore season. They'll hope for better with Cameron Flukey, a very, very different prospect from Huesman. At this point, Flukey needs a lot of work and might not immediately take on a big role as Coastal went largely untouched through the draft, though they did lose a pair of important lefties (Huesman and the Ole Miss-bound Liam Doyle) to the transfer portal. He touches sits in the low 90's and touches 97 with great riding action at best, velocity which is trending up quickly. His curveball is still searching for its identity a bit, showing nice power and depth at times but at others humping early out of his hand. The changeup is a bit firm at this point, but that's not uncommon for prep pitchers from the northeast. The 6'6" righty stands out most for his physicality, already having begun to fill out his towering frame with more room yet to go. He moves very well on the mound, getting great extension towards the plate and putting extra hop on his stuff in the process. The arm action is a bit long right now, impacting his command, and the Coastal Carolina pitching staff may look to shorten that up a bit to simplify things. There is a lot to like here and Flukey could turn into an ace for the Chanticleers.

10. (#132) LHP Ethan McElvain, Vanderbilt.
Chris McElvain had a nice career at Vanderbilt, working his way into the weekend rotation by his junior year and overall putting up a 4.33 ERA over 44 appearances (17 start) from 2020-2022. In 2022, he found himself drafted in the eighth round by the Reds and in 2023 worked his way up to High A. Now, his brother Ethan will look to continue the family legacy in Nashville and has a shot to be drafted even earlier than Chris in a few years. While Chris was a 6', 205 pound right hander, Ethan is a 6'4" lefty who brings louder stuff and more upside to Nashville. His fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96, coming in with hard running action from a higher slot. His slider has steadily improved and now looks like an above average pitch, giving him a power two pitch mix to attack with. The changeup is a distant third pitch and certainly something he'll want to work on quickly when he gets to Vanderbilt. McElvain is very physical for his age with tons of arm strength and a durable frame. The delivery is a bit stiff at this time, but he doesn't have to work terribly hard to reach his velocity and he should be able to smooth that out a little in no time. If he can find a changeup and take the next step with his delivery, he has a workhorse starter profile that could work his way into Vanderbilt's crowded weekend rotation.

11. (#133) RHP Parker Detmers, Louisville.
Just like Ethan McElvain, Parker Detmers is also following a brother to school. Reid Detmers was untouchable during his sophomore and junior seasons at Louisville, went tenth overall to the Angels in 2020, reached the majors just a year later, and is now closing in on Chad Green as he looks to become the greatest pitcher ever to come out of the school. Those are massive shoes to fill, but Parker arrives on campus looking to establish his own legacy. Presently standing out more for his polish than his stuff, the stuff has begun to tick up and he's becoming a more complete prospect. The fastball has comfortably pushed above 90, now sitting in the low 90's and touching 94-95. Much like his brother, his curveball is his best pitch with sharp bite and grades out as plus. The changeup is coming along nicely as well, giving him a nice three pitch mix with a present strikeout pitch. The 6'4" righty repeats his clean, easy delivery very consistently, giving him above average command of both his fastball and his offspeed stuff and boding well for his potential to earn innings quickly at Louisville. You'd still like to see the fastball gain another tick or two, but it's a really nice foundation coming in so he won't have to divert his focus too much. There is certainly louder stuff on this list, but Detmers is the most polished.

12. (#134) LHP Jake Brown, Louisiana State.
Right at the end, LSU will sneak in another pitcher and become the only school with two names on this list. Like Parker Detmers, he stands out more for his pitchability than his stuff, though he has the benefit of throwing left handed. The fastball presently sits around 90, touching 94 at peak and coming in with flat plane from a lower slot. He shows a solid average slider and changeup, so there's no standout pitch in this arsenal. However, he commands everything well to all four quadrants of the zone, including the offspeed stuff, the latter of which is not common for incoming freshmen. The slider is also particularly promising given his feel for it and it should be an above average pitch soon. Standing 6'2", he has some projection but he's a skinny kid that will likely always be on the thinner side, so he's certainly going to be leaning on that command and pitchability going forward. While his average physicality and explosiveness may limit his upside a bit, the polish will give him a shot to earn meaningful innings quickly even on a staff like LSU that figures to be absolutely loaded once again. The Lake Charles-area native will also get a chance to hit for his home state team, adding to his potential impact in Baton Rouge.

Honorable Mentions
#143 RHP Luke McNeillie, Florida
#159 LHP Colton Hartman, Louisville
#160 RHP Gabe Gaeckle, Arkansas
#168 RHP Cameron Tilly, Auburn
#173 RHP Cole Stokes, Oregon

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