Sunday, October 1, 2023

The top 12 unsigned high school hitting prospects from the 2023 draft

We recently took a look at the top twelve pitching prospects to reach campus, so now we'll pivot to the position players. This group is led by Roch Cholowsky, the best unsigned prospect in the entire draft at any position or level not only of the 2023 draft, but of the last two drafts. He leads a trio of UCLA-bound bats, making the Bruins the only program to place more than one name on this list. That helps the dying Pac-12 lead the way with five players overall, ahead of the SEC (4), ACC (2), and Big 12 (1). Unlike with the pitchers, we couldn't sneak any mid majors onto this list, with eleven of the twelve players heading to traditional powerhouses save for Kevin Takeuchi and his Southern California commitment. Six top one hundred overall prospects grace this list overall, with profiles spread everywhere from outlier athletes to teenagers with grown man strength to long term performers on the showcase circuit.
Note, the ranking in parentheses denotes their ranking on my 2023 draft board.

1. (#34) SS Roch Cholowsky, UCLA.
Not only will UCLA bring in the #5 incoming pitching prospect and lead all schools with three names on this list, but they also get the top overall prospect in Roch Cholowsky. To me, Cholowsky is a really special player. A premium athlete to say the least, he is also a standout quarterback that generated rumblings that he could suit up for the UCLA football team as well, but that did not end up being the case and he'll stick with baseball. The athleticism immediately stands out on defense, where he effortlessly glides around the infield with loose, natural movements. He's plenty comfortable throwing off balance and from different angles, and with an above average arm, he's a plus defender overall that will stick at shortstop. While the bat isn't the calling card yet, it's coming along and I believe he'll eventually be an impact player. He naturally drops the barrel to the ball and makes plenty of contact against advanced pitching, and while his approach is fairly aggressive, it's still under control. He's currently hit over power, as his wiry 6'2" frame still has room to add more strength. Still, his loose right handed swing looks conducive to adding power as he fills out and learns to incorporate his lower half a bit better, and I think he could eventually be an above average hitter with average power. Throw in plus speed, and that's a really attractive all around profile. The Phoenix-area native also shows nice all-around polish as the son of Reds scout Dan Cholowsky, further adding to my optimism that he's going to continue trending up at UCLA. I'm buying into the athleticism and trajectory here and while he'll have to battle with fellow incoming blue chip prospect Roman Martin for the shortstop role, I think he'll quickly take over an every day role somewhere on the infield in Westwood.

2. (#56) 3B Trent Caraway, Oregon State.
Oregon State has quietly gotten very good at pulling recruits through to campus. A year after bringing in 2022's #69 overall prospect Gavin Turley, they'll pair him with another huge bat in 2023's #56 overall prospect Trent Caraway. Caraway brings the kind of profile that should find its way into an every day role almost immediately, and in fact if I had my pick of every true freshman in the country for just their freshman season only, he's probably the one I'd want. He's a big, strong, physically developed kid at 6'2", 205 pounds, and that's not entirely surprising given that he's a full year older than the typical incoming freshman, set to turn 20 in March. He channels that strength into easy power, just flicking his wrists and sending the baseball impressive distances to all fields. While there are some moving parts in his swing that can get him a little tied up with higher velocity, he's a disciplined hitter that attacks the right pitches and has an excellent track record of performance, especially this spring in the competitive Southern California high school ranks. It's a pretty complete profile at the plate between the power and his track record of getting to it in games, part of the reason he'll likely be a fixture in the Oregon State lineup from day one. With heavier feet and average speed, his future is likely at third base, where he has plenty of arm to profile. Caraway will be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2025, where he'll be older than many of the juniors in his draft class, so it may be a short stay in Corvallis.

3. (#75) OF Will Gasparino, Texas.
Roch Cholowsky isn't the only son of a scout that will hit campus with a lot of fanfare. Billy Gasparino is the scouting director for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and his son Will will give Texas a shot in the arm as it already brings back the top two unsigned college players from last year's draft. The next in a long line of talent that has come through the Harvard-Westlake School in Hollywood Hills, including such names as Lucas Giolito, Jack Flaherty, Max Fried, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Drew Bowser, Gasparino has extremely loud tools that will immediately stand out in Austin. Standing a lanky 6'6", he uses his long arms to generate huge bat speed and tremendous torque from his big right handed swing, leading to plus raw power already. With plenty more room to add additional strength, we could be talking about double plus power in time. At this point, the power plays down a little in games because he's a very streaky hitter whose long swing can cause swing and miss, though he can get hot and run into more than his fair share of barrels even against quality pitching. He's entering into a very strong player development program at Texas, which should be able to put the pieces together into a big time impact bat. Gasparino has clocked plus run times as well, giving him a shot to compete for the center field spot vacated by Eric Kennedy (Royals, undrafted). With right fielder Dylan Campbell (Dodgers, fourth round) also gone, his arm will put him in contention for that role as well. Between the size, power, and speed, the raw tools here are huge. If the Longhorn coaching staff can help him get more consistent and grow into his lanky frame, he has a chance to do special things in Austin.

4. (#86) OF Caden Sorrell, Texas A&M.
Heading about ninety miles east, Texas A&M is also bringing in one of the best bats in the freshman class and getting him from in state to boot. Caden Sorrell was one of the top performers in the state of Texas this past spring, showcasing an all-around elevated game up at Flower Mound Marcus High School in the DFW Metroplex. He's very physical at 6'3", 195 pounds, with more room to tack on additional strength. He uses a compact left handed swing to produce above average power to all fields, power which he tapped consistently in games as a high school senior. The swing can get a little more line drive oriented, but he moves well in the box and should continue to leave the yard in games in College Station. Because Sorrell is a bit of a late rising prospect, he does not have a long track record of performance against higher end pitching including in the summer of 2022 before his senior season. That leaves mostly his body of work as a high school senior as the positive argument for his hit tool, and DFW pitching is not too shabby at all. He has a chance to be a real impact bat in the middle of the Aggie lineup, but it might take a minute for him to break through. The Texas A&M outfield lost a couple seniors to graduation, but they're also bringing in two of the best outfield transfers in the country in Braden Montgomery (Stanford) and Hayden Schott (Columbia) to replace them, so at bats may be hard to come by in the early going. Working in Sorrell's favor are his plus speed and arm, which will enable him to slot in anywhere in the Aggie outfield and provide positive value there. Even if he doesn't play immediately, once he forces his way into that lineup, he'll be a huge addition that will contribute in many different facets.

5. (#92) SS Dylan Cupp, Mississippi State.
Unlike Caden Sorrell, Dylan Cupp comes to Mississippi State with an extremely long track record of performance on the national stage. He hasn't always set the world on fire, and his senior season more "met" expectations than exceeded them, but either way he'll be able to jump right in against SEC pitching and feel as comfortable as you can expect for a true freshman. Cupp stands out first for his defense. His hands and feet are lightning quick in the dirt, showing exceptional body control and hand-eye coordination to act as a vacuum over there at shortstop. His above average arm will keep him at that position at Mississippi State, and he has a chance to be one of the better defenders in the SEC over the next few seasons. While he's no slouch at the plate, the tools aren't as loud there. His quick hands play up in the box, enabling him to whip the barrel through the zone and create more power than you'd expect from his skinny 6'2" frame. Cupp has strong feel for the barrel and will be able to find it early and often at Mississippi State, though there are times when he can get too steep and miss underneath, leading to some minor strikeout concerns. If he fills out his frame a bit more, he has a chance to be a very solid hitter, which when combined with his glove, will make him a very interesting prospect. If not, the Northwest Georgia native still has plenty enough glove to profile near the bottom of the Bulldog order.

6. (#94) OF/WR Grant Gray, UCLA.
I mentioned that Roch Cholowsky was rumored as a potential QB at UCLA, but he may not even be the best football player in the baseball team's incoming freshman class. Grant Gray, as it turns out, earned a roster spot as a wide receiver for the Bruins, though he hasn't gotten into a game yet. Of course, baseball scouts have long known Gray for his athleticism and ultra projectable 6'3" frame, but it was his senior year of baseball that really made them sit up and consider him a potential future impact player. His long, strong arms and legs help him create a ton of leverage in his right handed swing, so as he gets into that UCLA player development pipeline he has a real chance to create above average or even plus raw power in time. Like Caden Sorrell, he's unproven against higher level pitching in this case because he's been busy playing football, but he showed very well against strong Southern California high school pitching this past spring and looks up to the task of handling Pac-12 then Big Ten pitching. His football commitments may continue to slow down his baseball development, and his rawness does show in games. That translates over to defense, where he'll have to move off the infield upon getting into baseball season and develop as an outfielder. As a Power Five wide receiver, his elite speed will give him every shot to stick in center field, helping give the Bruins more reason to get him into the lineup. It's hard to find this combination of power, speed, and athleticism, giving him massive upside if UCLA can develop his swing and sand down the rough edges in his profile. Gray is extremely old for an incoming freshman having turned 19 back in May, so he'll be draft-eligible again as a sophomore in 2025 and still may be fairly raw at that point. It may not be until he gives up football that the Norco native fully takes the step forward he's looking for.

7. (#103) C Zion Rose, Louisville.
Zion Rose has a chance to build on what's turning into a real catching pipeline at Louisville, which has recently produced All Star Will Smith, 2021 first overall pick Henry Davis, and 2022 second rounder Dalton Rushing. While he has a ways to go in terms of his development, he absolutely has the upside to join that list. Rose carries as explosive a bat as you're going to find, producing tremendous bat speed from a grown man's 6'1", 210 pound frame. While he doesn't tap it often in games yet, there is potential plus-plus raw power in there given his strength and bat speed. At this point, the swing is disjointed as he gets his foot down early before flinging the barrel through the zone, often pulling off or getting too steep with a stiff overall operation. At Louisville, he'll look to smooth that out and find a more natural rhythm in the box, hopefully helping him create a more adjustable barrel and make more consistent, flush contact. The Chicago native does take strong at bats and can handle advanced pitching, and with that bat speed, he can do plenty of damage today even when he doesn't square the ball up. Unlike most catchers, Rose has flashed plus run times and shows tremendous athleticism behind the plate. Similar to his hitting, the physical tools are ahead of the polish defensively. While he doesn't have the cleanest exchange and release, his cannon arm makes up for a bit of a double clutch and helps him gun runners down. Many evaluators think he could move to center field in the long run, where his speed and arm will play great, but by going to college, he'll have a chance to refine his blocking and receiving to potentially prove he could stick back there. There are some similarities to Henry Davis in this profile, though Davis had a bit more of a balanced offensive profile and of course built up an elite track record of performance.

8. (#105) SS Roman Martin, UCLA.
Roman Martin continues an elite recruiting class for UCLA, though unlike Roch Cholowsky and Grant Gray, he has not been in contact with head football coach Chip Kelly as far as I know. While he's just focused on baseball, he does bring an elite track record of performance as long as any name on this list. It's interesting to contrast him to Cholowsky especially since they play the same position and will both battle to first push Cody Schrier off of shortstop, or once he gets drafted highly in 2024, take over. Cholowsky is a much better athlete with higher upside on both sides of the ball, while Martin is more of a steady eddy that has gotten the job done day in and day out. He has a quick right handed swing with strong pitch recognition ability and a long track record of sending line drives out to all fields against quality competition. The power is fringy for now, but at 6'2", he has a chance to grow into average pop as he fills out his skinny frame. He should take well to Pac-12 pitching immediately in the conference's swan song this coming spring. Meanwhile, he's a sure handed defender at shortstop whose instincts and natural grace at the position help him play above his average speed, giving him every opportunity to beat out the more athletic Cholowsky for the shortstop position should both of their bats qualify. I'm certainly higher on Cholowsky (as is most of the industry) in the long run due to his upside but in the immediate future in Westwood, it will be fun to see the two of them battle it out and potentially make up one of the best double play combos in college baseball.

9. (#128) IF Kevin Takeuchi, Southern California.
In 2021, Southern Cal landed the top overall recruit in the country, Marcelo Mayer, but he went fourth overall to the Red Sox and of course wasn't going to turn that down. Two years later, they managed to pull another highly touted infielder from the San Diego area through to campus, and even if he's not quite the prospect Mayer was, Kevin Takeuchi has a chance to leave his mark in Los Angeles. He's undersized at 5'10", but came out looking more physical this past spring and put together a huge senior season to match, elevating his profile. He has a quick right handed swing geared for hard line drives and shows more power than you'd expect from his smaller frame, with the ability to turn on the ball for above average power to his pull side. With a strong eye at the plate, he's able to unleash that powerful swing more often by choosing good pitches he can do damage on. It's a pretty well-rounded offensive profile even if he lacks the upside or track record of some other names on this list. The defensive tools are average, with enough arm to make third base work and enough range to make it work at second base, at least at the collegiate level. The overall profile is a bit reminiscent of Tommy Troy, another highly touted prep infielder from California who hit .338/.411/.603 with 34 home runs over a three year career at Stanford en route to being drafted twelfth overall in 2023 by the Diamondbacks (though I'd note that Takeuchi is a more disciplined hitter at this stage of his career).

10. (#130) SS Braden Holcomb, Vanderbilt.
Braden Holcomb may not break into the Vanderbilt starting lineup immediately, especially considering they return three quarters of last year's starting infield and are bringing in two impact infield transfers to boot, but he has a chance to become a real impact player once he does earn playing time. Holcomb immediately stands out among his peers with a physically developed 6'4", 220 pound frame that looks like it could have him playing in the big leagues today. He takes big swings from the right side and his strength helps him tap plus power in games playing to all fields. To this point, he has been inconsistent at the plate and has struggled at times against higher quality pitching, but he did look better this spring against good pitching in the Orlando area. He may not immediately be up for the challenge of hitting SEC pitching every day, but like I mentioned, it's already a crowded infield situation in Nashville and he'll have time to iron things out. A shortstop in high school, he likely won't stick at that position for Vanderbilt and certainly won't in pro ball, with heavy feet and a big frame that will push him to third base, where his plus arm will play. Holcomb has a chance to hit in the middle of the Vanderbilt lineup and provide some of the best power they've seen in recent years.

11. (#146) C Ryder Helfrick, Arkansas.
Arkansas did not get much offense from the catcher's position last year, but they'll go into 2024 set up much better. Not only did Hudson White transfer in from Texas Tech with his .296/.397/.550 line from a year ago, but the Razorbacks are also bringing in the #2 freshman catching prospect in the country behind Louisville's Zion Rose. Like Rose, Ryder Helfrick is a bit raw at this point but he also brings big time upside. He has extremely quick hands in the box, translating to great bat speed and above average power from the right side. His quick hands help him catch up to velocity with ease, which should ease his transition to the SEC, though he's still learning to recognize offspeed. The Northern California native can also get passive at the plate at times and lose control of his at bats, something he'll need to tighten up in Fayetteville. With his electric hands and compact strength, Helfrick has the tools to be an impact bat for the Razorbacks. The profile is similar behind the plate, as his athleticism and above average arm give him considerable upside on that side of the ball as well. He does need refinement in that regard and could see time in the outfield while he develops his receiving and blocking skills. Interestingly, he won't be the only blue chip prospect heading to Arkansas from Northern California, joining Gabe Gaeckle, the #15 pitching prospect nationally on his way to campus.

12. (#158) OF Drew Burress, Georgia Tech.
Drew Burress rounds out this list, and he does so as another powderkeg athlete with considerable raw tools. The shortest player on this list at 5'9", he doesn't let that stop him from putting on a show in games. He takes big, uppercut hacks from the right side, with his natural athleticism helping him translate that rotational force into big time bat speed and leverage. The exit velocities are much higher than you'd expect from a kid that size, and with his ability to elevate with authority, he could tap above average power in games in the ACC. With that power-conscious approach does come swing and miss, especially against offspeed stuff to the point where I'm a bit concerned about his initial transition to ACC pitching. He has performed well against premium velocity throughout his prep career despite the big swing, so it's an accurate barrel when you consider how hard he swings. In Atlanta, he may look to find more of a balanced approach, though at Georgia Tech they do like guys who can blast the ball. Beyond the power, he's an above average runner with a plus arm that will fit well into the Yellow Jacket outfield, with the chance to take over for Jake DeLeo in center field if he hits enough to start at the outset. Regardless, he'll likely develop into an all-around impact player in Atlanta.

Honorable Mentions
#165 UT Gavin Grahovac, Texas A&M
#170 2B Camden Kozeal, Vanderbilt
#171 OF/WR Duce Robinson, Southern California
#175 OF Easton Breyfogle, Arizona
#182 C Campbell Smithwick, Mississippi

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