These awards are based on how I would assign them, not how I believe they will end up. This follows the MVP and Cy Young awards article.
American League Rookie of the Year
Winner: DH Yordan Alvarez (Houston Astros)
Stat Line: 27 HR, 78 RBI, .313/.412/.655, 0 SB, 178 wRC+, 3.8 fWAR in 87 games
In order to win the Rookie of the Year Award while playing just 87 games and DH'ing in most of them, you have to hit pretty well. Well, Yordan Alvarez hit pretty well, slashing .313/.412/.655 with 27 home runs and 26 doubles, and his 178 wRC+ would have been second in baseball only to Mike Trout's 180 if he had qualified. It started when the then-21 year old homered in four of his first five career games, and he never slowed down from there with five multi-homer efforts (including a three homer game) in his abbreviated rookie season. Perhaps as impressively for a rookie power hitter, he hit .313 with a .412 on-base percentage. The numbers get even crazier when you include the minors; between AAA Round Rock and the majors, he cracked 50 home runs, drove in 149, and slashed .325/.424/.690 over 143 games.
Runner-up: LHP John Means (Baltimore Orioles)
Stat Line: 12-11, 3.60 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 121/38 K/BB in 155 innings
A combination of a boring name, lack of big prospect status, and a terrible team means that it was hard to notice John Means. Still, he quietly put up one of the better pitching seasons in the American League, his 3.60 ERA being a product of pitching in the tough AL East in a hitter-friendly home park with a juiced ball. For reference, his 77 ERA-, which adjusts for home park and league average, put him in the same neighborhood as Walker Buehler and Luis Castillo. Means started off strong and actually carried a 2.50 ERA through the first half, and while he regressed in the second half with a 4.85 ERA, the final product was still an extremely productive season with a poor defense behind him in a very hitter-friendly environment. His most impressive start of the season came on May 6th, just his fifth career start, when he limited the Boston Red Sox to one run on three hits, no walks, and four strikeouts over seven innings.
Honorable mention: UTIL Luis Arraez (Minnesota Twins)
Stat Line: 4 HR, 28 RBI, .334/.399/.439, 2 SB, 125 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR in 92 games
You could make a very strong case for Eloy Jimenez or Brandon Lowe here, and I was very tempted to choose them, but Luis Arraez was so darn impressive that I just had to put him third. Turning 22 right at the beginning of the season, Arraez was considered more of a utility prospect and started the season at AA Pensacola, but he hit .342 there and earned a promotion to the majors in May, slashing .375/.467/.583 in a small sample size before getting sent down to AAA Rochester. However, after hitting .348 there, he was called back up for good in June and picked up right where he left off, and he turned out to be one of the game's most consistent hitters. Of the 85 in which he had at least two at bats, he had at least one hit in 70 of them, putting together two double-digit hitting streaks along the way. Additionally, in the 90 games in which he had at least one plate appearance, he was on base in 79 of them. His .334 batting average and .399 on-base percentage provided crucial balance to a Twins team that set the single season record for home runs, but he was just as important on defense, filling in wherever he was needed and appearing in 49 games at second base, 17 at third base, eight at shortstop, and 21 in left field. In a year where the home run was king, Arraez was one of the more unconventional players.
Others
2B Brandon Lowe (TB, 17 HR, .270/.336/.514, 125 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR)
LF Eloy Jimenez (CWS, 31 HR, .267/.315/.513, 116 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR)
RHP Zach Plesac (CLE, 3.81 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 88/40/115.2 K/BB/IP)
RF Oscar Mercado (CLE, 15 HR, .269/.318/.443, 15 SB, 95 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR)
3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (15 HR, .272/.339/.433, 105 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR)
National League Rookie of the Year
Winner: 1B Pete Alonso (New York Mets)
Stat Line: 53 HR, 120 RBI, .260/.358/.583, 1 SB, 143 wRC+, 4.8 fWAR in 161 games
What if Yordan Alvarez, but over 161 games instead of 87? Alright, while Pete Alonso wasn't quite as good as Alvarez on a per-game basis, this was still a Judgian rookie year. You could say that Alonso was just taking part in a league-wide homer barrage with the juiced balls, but he still led all of MLB with 53 home runs while breaking Aaron Judge's rookie record. He hit at least six home runs in each month (a 36 home run pace at worst) while slugging at least .566 in every month except July, where he slumped to just a .177/.333/.430 line. Still, he turned that slump around with a strong August (.283/.372/.566) then crushed eleven home runs in September to close out the year. His season-long homer barrage included four multi-homer games, an August stretch with home runs in four consecutive games, and two additional streaks with homers in three consecutive games. Oh yeah, and while he was slumping in July, he won the Home Run Derby as a rookie. Not too shabby.
Runner-up: RHP Mike Soroka (Atlanta Braves)
Stat Line: 13-4, 2.68 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 142/41 K/BB in 174.2 innings
Alonso's homer barrage combined with all the other great rookies in the NL made it easy to miss Mike Soroka's incredible season at the top of the Braves rotation, as he actually finished third in the NL in ERA. Indeed, Soroka held down a 2.68 ERA over 29 starts, allowing three or fewer earned runs in 25 of those. He was particularly dominant at the start of the season, heading into mid-June 7-1 with a 1.38 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP over his first ten starts. He has incredible poise on the mound for someone who just turned 22 in August, and his strong command in a day where velocity is king have garnered him some comparisons to Greg Maddux. While Soroka has a long, long way to go to match Maddux's production, a likely top ten and possible top five finish in the NL Cy Young race is as good of a start as you can have.
Honorable mention: RHP Chris Paddack (San Diego Padres)
Stat Line: 9-7, 3.33 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 153/31 K/BB in 140.2 innings
It came down to a couple of Padres for this third spot, but unfortunately Fernando Tatis Jr. only playing half the season due to injuries pushes Chris Paddack just a hair ahead of him. Paddack made 26 starts and posted a 3.33 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP, the latter of which would have been third in the NL and way ahead of Soroka if he had enough innings to qualify. He did slow down a bit as the season progressed, and a four start stretch in August in which he allowed 19 earned runs in 17 innings inflated his ERA from 2.78 to 3.84, but when he was on, he was one of the best pitchers in the National League, period. After he posted a 1.93 ERA in April, Pete Alonso was named the NL Rookie of the Month, and that irked Paddack enough that in his first start in May, fittingly against the Mets, he struck out eleven over 7.2 shutout innings, including Alonso twice, to lower his ERA to 1.55. That competitiveness makes him one of the most fun pitchers to watch, and it will serve him well in these upcoming winning San Diego teams.
Others
SS Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD, 22 HR, .317/.379/.590, 150 wRC+, 3.6 fWAR)
OF Bryan Reynolds (PIT, 16 HR, .314/.377/.503, 131 wRC+, 3.2 fWAR)
RHP Giovanny Gallegos (STL, 2.31 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 93/16/74 K/BB/IP)
CF Victor Robles (WSH, 17 HR, .255/.326/.419, 28 SB, 91 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR)
RHP Sandy Alcantara (MIA, 3.88 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 151/81/197.1 K/BB/IP)
American League Manager of the Year
Winner: Aaron Boone (New York Yankees): 103-59 (.636 WPCT), AL East Champion
Injuries were the name of the game for the Yankees this year, and they finished the season 103-59. Wait, what? If I told you that you would get a combined 35 games out of Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar, Troy Tulowitzki, and Jacoby Ellsbury while none of Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, and Aaron Hicks would play in more than 106 games, what would you think of the Yankee offense? What if I then added in that Luis Severino, Dellin Betances, and Jordan Montgomery would combine for 16.2 innings, and that Masahiro Tanaka would be the only pitcher to qualify for the ERA title? Somehow, Aaron Boone managed to manipulate his lineups to squeeze 103 wins of production out of this group, putting unlikely heroes like Mike Tauchman, Gio Urshela, Mike Ford, and Cameron Maybin in positions to succeed. I wasn't in the Yankee clubhouse and so I can't say for certain how it all went down, but Boone and the Yankees certainly overachieved given the rough hand they were dealt.
Runner-up: Kevin Cash (Tampa Bay Rays): 96-66 (.593 WPCT), 2nd AL Wild Card
The most recognizable names on this roster might belong to Blake Snell, Charlie Morton, Kevin Kiermaier, and Tommy Pham, but that never mattered to the low budget Rays. However, that has never been a problem for the Rays, and they finally broke through in 2019 with big seasons from Pham, Austin Meadows, Ji-Man Choi, Brandon Lowe, and Yandy Diaz at the plate as well as Morton, Emilio Pagan, Yonny Chirinos, and Ryan Yarbrough on the mound. Who? Doesn't matter, Cash and the creative Rays front office made it happen. The modern day Moneyball Rays pioneered the opener, which helped get the most out of guys like Chirinos and Yarbrough, and his overall creative style got the Rays to where they are.
Others
A.J. Hinch (HOU, 107-55, .660)
Bob Melvin (OAK, 97-65, .599)
Rocco Baldelli (MIN, 101-61, .623)
National League Manager of the Year
Winner: Brian Snitker (Atlanta Braves): 97-65 (.599 WPCT), NL East Champion
This comes down to Snitker and Davey Martinez to me, and it's hard to pick one without actually having been in the clubhouse. I'll give the edge to Snitker because of the Braves' more consistent performance, but a day in the locker room with either team could change my mind. Still, Snitker managed an extremely young Braves team that included prominent contributors like Ronald Acuña Jr. (age 21), Mike Soroka (21-22), Ozzie Albies (22), Austin Riley (22), Touki Toussaint (22-23), Max Fried (25), Dansby Swanson (25), and Sean Newcomb (26) to a lot of consistent success. A mediocre bullpen also made Snitker's job harder. Even when the Nationals began to surge over the summer, the Braves kept their cool and safely kept them at arm's reach throughout, and the NL East title was never really in doubt.
Runner-up: Davey Martinez (Washington Nationals): 93-69 (.574 WPCT), 1st NL Wild Card
If it was a smooth ride for the Braves, it was anything but for the Nationals. Early season injuries to Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner, combined with poor performance all around, had the Nationals at 19-31 in May and well out of a playoff spot. Through Davey Martinez's "stay in the fight" mantra, as well as a host of other factors including the Gerardo Parra signing, the Nationals completely turned it around and finished the season on a 74-38, including their final eight games, to secure home field advantage in the NL Wild Card Game. Davey navigated an awful bullpen that never really materialized, even with the in-season additions of Daniel Hudson, Fernando Rodney, Hunter Strickland, Roenis Elias, Javy Guerra, and more, though one could say he overused guys like Sean Doolittle and Wander Suero. Perhaps no single game captured the season's essence more than on September 3rd, when the bullpen allowed five runs in the top of the ninth before the Nationals rallied back for seven runs in the bottom of the inning to win 11-10. Starting in May, the team was loose, they had fun, and most importantly, they won ballgames.
Others
Craig Counsell (MIL, 89-73, .549)
Dave Roberts (LAD, 106-56, .654)
Mike Shildt (STL, 91-71, .562)
American League Reliever of the Year
*RE24 measures how much a pitcher has reduced the opposing team's run expectancy. For example, a with a runner on first and nobody out, a team is expected to score 0.831 runs, so if a reliever gets an out to make it a runner on first with one out, that reduces the run expectancy to 0.489 and adds 0.342 (0.831-0.489) to the pitcher's RE24. A higher RE24 is therefore better.
Winner: RHP Liam Hendriks (Oakland Athletics)
Stat Line: 1.80 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 21.86 RE24, 124/21 K/BB in 85 innings
Did you realize just how good Liam Hendriks was for the A's this year, because I sure didn't. In In 75 appearances, he managed a 1.80 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 21.86 RE24 that was second only to Aaron Bummer (22.81) among American League relievers. He recorded at least one strikeout in 68 of his 75 appearances and finished the year with a 37.3% strikeout rate compared to just a 6.3% walk rate. Additionally, Hendriks got more than three outs in 21 different appearances, proving to be much more than just a one inning plug-in guy.
Runner-up: RHP Emilio Pagan (Tampa Bay Rays)
Stat Line: 2.31 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 13.24 RE24, 96/13 K/BB in 70 innings
It might be hard to keep track of Pagan, as he's a reliever who has played for three small market green teams in three years (Mariners in 2017, A's in 2018, Rays in 2019), but he had by far his best season this year out in Tampa. Over 66 appearances, he pitched to a 2.31 ERA but only allowed one unearned run for a 2.44 RA9, and he also finished second among AL relievers (min. 25 IP) with his 0.83 WHIP, allowing just 45 hits and 13 walks in 70 innings. He struck out 36% of his opponents while walking just 4.9%, his 7.38 K/BB ratio coming in at third place in the AL (min. 25 IP). He was especially lethal against right handed hitters, striking out 63 and walking just three in 46.2 innings while pitching to a 0.71 WHIP. You may not have heard of him, but he's going to be a centerpiece in the Tampa bullpen for the foreseeable future, at least until his contract starts to get heftier.
Others:
RHP Brandon Workman (BOS, 1.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 21.05 RE24, 104/45/71.2 K/BB/IP)
RHP Yusmeiro Petit (OAK, 2.71 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 19.22 RE24, 71/10/83 K/BB/IP)
RHP Will Harris (HOU, 1.50 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 17.97 RE24, 62/14 K/BB/IP)
National League Reliever of the Year
Winner: RHP Giovanny Gallegos (St. Louis Cardinals)
Stat Line: 2.31 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 22.55 RE24, 93/16 K/BB in 74 innings
The NL RE24 leader by a long shot, Gallegos' 22.55 mark crushed second place Felipe Vazquez' 17.81 mark by nearly five runs. He struck out exactly one third of his opponents while walking just 5.7%, and he didn't allow an unearned run all season to keep his RA9 right there at 2.31. His ERA and WHIP actually stood at 4.80 and 1.13, respectively, on May 12th, but he kicked it into another gear after that slow start and went the rest of the season, 59 innings, with a 1.68 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP, and a 68/11 strikeout to walk ratio. A mutli-inning weapon, he got more than three outs in 25 of his 66 appearances, and quietly finished with one of the finest rookie seasons in the NL in a year where there were a lot of them. I know that Yankee fans are happy with Luke Voit, but St. Louis' return might actually have been better.
Runner-up: RHP Josh Hader (Milwaukee Brewers)
Stat Line: 2.62 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 17.09 RE24, 138/20 K/BB in 75.2 innings
Hader as a bit inconsistent due to overuse, but when he was on, which was most of the time, he was un-hittable. I mean, who he heck strikes out 47.8% of their opponents, besting their previous year's mark of 46.7%? The answer is not many, because that 47.8% mark is the fourth best of all time, trailing only 2014 Aroldis Chapman (52.5%), 2012 Craig Kimbrel (50.2%), and 2017 Craig Kimbrel (49.6%). Of course, Hader's mid-summer slide inflated his ERA from 1.77 to 3.02 at one point as he allowed eleven earned runs in sixteen innings from July 1st to August 17th, but after taking a week off, he was back to his old self and allowed just three runs over his final 19 innings while striking out 32 against three walks. Hader's strongest stretch came from May to June, when he allowed just two runs over 26 innings (0.69 ERA) on just six hits and eight walks (0.54 WHIP) while striking out 46.
Others
RHP Kirby Yates (SD, 1.19 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 14.89 RE24, 101/13/60.2 K/BB/IP)
LHP Felipe Vazquez (PIT, 1.65 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 17.81 RE24, 90/13/60 K/BB/IP)
RHP Seth Lugo (NYM, 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 11.54 RE24, 104/16/80 K/BB/IP)
Showing posts with label Josh Hader. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Josh Hader. Show all posts
Sunday, October 6, 2019
Monday, November 5, 2018
Reviewing my 2018 Breakout Predictions
Before the season, I wrote about "one breakout star to watch" for each team, with one article for the AL and one for the NL. I'll go team by team and review each pick. Unfortunately, while I had some hits, many of my breakout picks flopped and three had Tommy John surgery before the season even started, so overall I am a little disappointed in the way this list turned out. If I still have time, I'll try again for the 2019 season.
Baltimore Orioles: Chance Sisco (2 HR, .181/.288/.269, 1 SB, 59 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR)
As with all things Orioles related in 2018, this didn't quite work out. Sisco's bat proved to be overmatched by major league pitching, and he struck out in 35.9% of his plate appearances while slashing .181/.288/.269 over 63 games. He turns 24 in February so he is still plenty young and will try again next year, but so far, not so good for Sisco.
Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers (21 HR, .240/.298/.433, 5 SB, 90 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR)
While Devers didn't exactly flop in 2018, his .240/.298/.433 line was still somewhat disappointing after he slashed .284/.338/.482 in a smaller sample size last season. While the power was pretty good, he struggled to get on base and a .298 OBP won't exactly cut it unless you're hitting 30+ home runs. He did slash .294/.351/.382 in the postseason and picked up some timely hits, and having just turned 22 during the World Series, he has plenty of time to move past his moderately disappointing 2018.
New York Yankees: Miguel Andujar (27 HR, .297/.328/.527, 2 SB, 128 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR)
Here's one that I definitely got right. There was an opening for Andujar at third base and he took it, clubbing 76 extra base hits in 149 games and holding down a critical lineup spot for one of baseball's better teams. While his 4.1% walk rate cut into his production and left him with a pedestrian .328 OBP, it's hard to ask for more out of a 23 year old rookie than what Andujar gave in 2018.
Tampa Bay Rays: Brent Honeywell (did not play - injured)
Shortly after I picked Honeywell as the Rays' breakout star to watch, he tore his UCL and had to miss the season. My runner up was Jake Bauers, who slashed .201/.316/.384 with eleven home runs in 96 games and was more in the Rafael Devers boat of "not necessarily disappointing, but not great either."
Toronto Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez (22 HR, .239/.302/.468, 5 SB, 107 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR)
While Hernandez didn't exactly light the world on fire, he did break out for 22 home runs in his first full season. Overall, 58 extra base hits in 134 games is pretty good, and a 107 wRC+ meant he was an above average hitter despite a low .302 OBP. I'll consider Hernandez a success here, though with his poor defense he was barely above replacement level.
Chicago White Sox: Yoan Moncada (17 HR, .235/.315/.400, 12 SB, 97 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR)
Put Moncada in the same category as Rafael Devers. He was very inconsistent in 2018, slashing as high as .274/.361/.516 in April and as low as .197/.242/.350 in June. Overall, though, his numbers turned out quite decently: 17 home runs, a .235/.315/.400 line, and 2.0 fWAR. He hit the ball hard, but his 33.4% strikeout rate kept him from sustaining hot stretches and kept his overall production more pedestrian. Let's see what happens in 2019.
Cleveland Indians: Bradley Zimmer (2 HR, .226/.281/.330, 4 SB, 63 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR)
Zimmer was limited to just 34 games in 2018 due to injuries, so his big breakout did not come. However, he's just about to turn 25 and Michael Brantley, Rajai Davis, and Brandon Guyer are all free agents, so Zimmer does have a good chance to make 2019 the year.
Detroit Tigers: Jeimer Candelario (19 HR, .224/.317/.393, 3 SB, 95 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR)
Candelario hit 19 home runs, walked at a healthy 10.7% clip, and played good defense in 2018 as a 24 year old near-rookie, but a .224 batting average limited his overall slash line. While expectations may have been a little higher, his 2.5 fWAR shows he was more than solid, and the Tigers should feel comfortable moving forward with him as their starting third baseman.
Kansas City Royals: Adalberto Mondesi (14 HR, .276/.306/.498, 32 SB, 114 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR)
Before the season, I asked "could 2018 finally be Mondesi's year?" and as it turns out, the answer was yes. Mondesi was on the MLB.com top fifty prospect list way back in 2013, and now the 23 year old is finally producing after disappointing 2016 and 2017 seasons in the majors. This year, he slashed .276/.306/.498 with 14 home runs and 32 stolen bases in just 75 games, putting up 2.8 fWAR in less than half a season. Honestly, even I didn't realize Mondesi has that good of a year. His future was in doubt for a while, but now it looks like he can take over at shortstop for the departing Alcides Escobar.
Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton (0 HR, .156/.183/.200, 5 SB, -3 wRC+, -0.4 fWAR)
Well...whoops. I was hoping Buxton would finally take the step forward into stardom or at least semi-stardom after slashing .300/.347/.546 in the second half of 2017, but he was hurt on and off in 2018, spent time in the minors, and ultimately never got anything going. It's hard to believe after four up and down years in the majors, he's still just 24 years old and has plenty of time to make things click, but he'll likely never become the superstar the Twins envisioned when they drafted him second overall in 2012 or when he was widely considered the game's top prospect after slashing .334/.424/.520 with 12 home runs and 55 stolen bases at Class A and High A in 2013.
Houston Astros: David Paulino (1-0, 1.35 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6/2 K/BB, 6.2 IP)
Paulino's prospect status is still intact after pitching parts of three seasons in the majors, and he's still just 24, but ultimately 2018 was not his year after he ended up sitting out much of it with injuries. Traded to the Blue Jays for Roberto Osuna, he'll give it another try in 2019.
Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani (22 HR, .285/.361/.564, 3.31 ERA, 63/22 K/BB, 3.8 fWAR)
Aside from the Tommy John surgery, 2018 could not have gone much better for Ohtani. He became baseball's first legitimate two-way star since Babe Ruth, both hitting and pitching at All Star levels. It's so, so awful that he won't get to pitch in 2019 due to the surgery, but Ohtani was everything even his wildest optimists hoped for in 2018, at least on a per-game basis.
Oakland Athletics: Jharel Cotton (did not play - injured)
Like Honeywell, Jharel Cotton did not appear in 2018 due to Tommy John surgery, and it looks like Matt Chapman would have been a better pick for this spot. My #2 pick behind Cotton, Franklin Barreto, played just 32 games and slashed .233/.253/.493, with his power looking great but his horrid plate discipline holding him back.
Seattle Mariners: Marco Gonzales (13-9, 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 145/32 K/BB, 166.2 IP)
Hey look, a success that wasn't necessarily an obvious pre-season choice like Ohtani. After battling injuries for years, Gonzales was finally healthy in 2018, and he responded in a great way by going 13-9 with a 4.00 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a very solid 145/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 166.2 innings. He was pretty inconsistent start to start, but when he was on, he looked like the future ace the Cardinals thought they drafted in the first round (19th overall) out of Gonzaga back in 2013.
Texas Rangers: Willie Calhoun (2 HR, .222/.269/.333, 0 SB, 55 wRC+, -0.6 fWAR)
Ah, another bust (at least for now). For the second straight season, Calhoun struggled to catch on in the majors, and we'll have to wait another year to see whether his power is the real deal. Among rookies expected to make an impact in 2018, Calhoun was among the biggest disappointments.
Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuna (26 HR, .293/.366/.552, 16 SB, 143 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR)
I don't think the prediction that Acuna would break out was a particularly novel one, and Acuna certainly lived up to the hype by slashing .293/.366/.552 with 26 home runs as a 20 year old. Before the season, there was plenty of praise heaped on him as a future superstar, and so far he has only made those claims stronger. Acuna will be one of the game's better outfielders, if not one of the best, for a long time.
Miami Marlins: Lewis Brinson (11 HR, .199/.240/.338, 2 SB, 56 wRC+, -1.0 fWAR)
On the flip side, Lewis Brinson sucked, to put it frankly. Though he had occasional outbursts of power, he struggled to make contact and only got as much playing time as he did because the Marlins just plain needed him there. I'd rank him ahead of Calhoun as the biggest disappointment of the season just because of his higher pre-season expectations, but the 24 year old can try again next year.
New York Mets: Amed Rosario (9 HR, .256/.295/.381, 24 SB, 85 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR)
While Rosario's numbers don't pop out, good defense at shortstop and better performance later in the season helped him put up an admirable year for a 22 year old. I expect Rosario to continue to develop in 2019 and may then have the breakout we're all waiting for.
Philadelphia Phillies: J.P. Crawford (3 HR, .214/.319/.393, 2 SB, 96 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR)
While Crawford finally began to get some regular playing time after years of being a top prospect, his .214/.319/.393 line over 49 games is still well short of expectations. There's talk that the Phillies might bring in Manny Machado, but if they decide to stick with Crawford, he'll have another opportunity to prove himself next year. He turns 24 in January so he's still young, but he has been stagnant for long enough that some doubt is beginning to creep in.
Washington Nationals: Victor Robles (3 HR, .288/.348/.525, 3 SB, 131 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR)
Victor Robles was supposed to do what Juan Soto did this year, but an arm injury in April knocked him out for three months and by the time he returned, Soto was basically already Babe Ruth. Still, once he was called up for 21 games in September, he looked very good, slashing .288/.348/.525 with three home runs and playing his trademark great defense. It's not Robles' fault he was hurt for much of the season, and I see no reason to think he can't challenge for the 2019 NL Rookie of the Year Award.
Chicago Cubs: Eddie Butler (2-3, 5.62 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 29/19 K/BB, 49.2 IP)
I picked Butler as the Cubs' best breakout candidate, though I did note at the time that the roster was pretty much set and nobody was really likely to have a breakthrough season. Butler couldn't make it work in Chicago and was ultimately sent to Texas in the Cole Hamels deal, where he has been a mediocre reliever.
Cincinnati Reds: Luis Castillo (10-12, 4.30 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 165/49 K/BB, 169.2 IP)
So no, Castillo didn't break out, with his 3.12 ERA and 1.07 WHIP from 2017 being better than this year's marks of 4.30 and 1.22, respectively, though he did only throw 89.1 innings in 2017. However, Castillo looked much better in the second half, going 5-4 with a 2.44 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 11 starts, striking out 69 and walking 14 in 66.1 innings. He's perfectly capable of maintaining that over a full season, and I would not be surprised if next year was the big breakout.
Milwaukee Brewers: Josh Hader (6-1, 2.43 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 143/30 K/BB, 81.1 IP)
I was a little bit disappointed when the Brewers did not end up using Hader as a starter, but he was so good in relief this year (143 strikeouts...really??) that it's hard to regard 2018 as anything but an absolute success. Hader went from intriguing upside prospect to bullpen monster in one year, and he's likely not going anywhere.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Tyler Glasnow (2-7, 4.27 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 136/53 K/BB, 111.2 IP)
So Glasnow didn't exactly break out in 2018, but he did have consistent major league success for the first time in his career, so this is should be regarded as a partial success. I think the Rays will be a good place for him and that he could continue to build on his success next year.
St. Louis Cardinals: Miles Mikolas (18-4, 2.83 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 146/29 K/BB, 200.2 IP)
I don't think 2018 could have possibly gone better for Mikolas. He was very mediocre in his first three seasons in the majors from 2012-2014, but after three years in Japan from 2015-2017, he came back looking like an ace. He didn't overpower hitters, but he hit his spots and induced weak contact to make the NL All Star Team.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Taylor Clarke (did not play - spent year in AAA)
So Clarke did go 13-8 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 2018 - at AAA Reno. He never got his shot in the Arizona rotation in 2018, so he'll try again in 2019, when he'll be 26.
Colorado Rockies: Ryan McMahon (5 HR, .232/.307/.376, 1 SB, 68 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR)
So he got his first significant MLB playing time, but ultimately he could not hang onto the first base job and slashed just .232/.307/.376 in 91 games. At this point, I'm not as confident in McMahon's ability to hold onto a first base job, with Ian Desmond currently getting time there and Grant Lavigne looking to make a quick run through the minors.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Walker Buehler (8-5, 2.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 151/37 K/BB, 137.1 IP)
Buehler had a fantastic rookie season in 2018, putting up a 2.62 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 24 games (23 starts) before dominating in the postseason. That marks three straight seasons in which a rookie put together not just a good but a great season, following Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger. Buehler looks like an ace in the making and will likely remain in the LA rotation for a long time.
San Diego Padres: Dinelson Lamet (did not play - injured)
Okay so in all, I lost three of my breakout picks to Tommy John surgery. That's unfortunate, because I was really looking forward to what Lamet could do in 2018 after striking out 28.7% of his opponents as a rookie in 2017. My second pick, Luis Perdomo, wasn't much better: 1-6, 7.05 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 39/22 K/BB.
San Francisco Giants: Chris Stratton (10-10, 5.09 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 112/54 K/BB, 145 IP)
The numbers weren't great, but on the positive side, Stratton pitched a full season for the first time in his career and even threw a complete game, two hit shutout on September 14th against the Rockies. He'll never reach the potential the Giants thought he had when they took him in the first round (20th overall) out of Mississippi State in 2012, but he looks like he could be a moderately useful back-end starter.
Baltimore Orioles: Chance Sisco (2 HR, .181/.288/.269, 1 SB, 59 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR)
As with all things Orioles related in 2018, this didn't quite work out. Sisco's bat proved to be overmatched by major league pitching, and he struck out in 35.9% of his plate appearances while slashing .181/.288/.269 over 63 games. He turns 24 in February so he is still plenty young and will try again next year, but so far, not so good for Sisco.
Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers (21 HR, .240/.298/.433, 5 SB, 90 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR)
While Devers didn't exactly flop in 2018, his .240/.298/.433 line was still somewhat disappointing after he slashed .284/.338/.482 in a smaller sample size last season. While the power was pretty good, he struggled to get on base and a .298 OBP won't exactly cut it unless you're hitting 30+ home runs. He did slash .294/.351/.382 in the postseason and picked up some timely hits, and having just turned 22 during the World Series, he has plenty of time to move past his moderately disappointing 2018.
New York Yankees: Miguel Andujar (27 HR, .297/.328/.527, 2 SB, 128 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR)
Here's one that I definitely got right. There was an opening for Andujar at third base and he took it, clubbing 76 extra base hits in 149 games and holding down a critical lineup spot for one of baseball's better teams. While his 4.1% walk rate cut into his production and left him with a pedestrian .328 OBP, it's hard to ask for more out of a 23 year old rookie than what Andujar gave in 2018.
Tampa Bay Rays: Brent Honeywell (did not play - injured)
Shortly after I picked Honeywell as the Rays' breakout star to watch, he tore his UCL and had to miss the season. My runner up was Jake Bauers, who slashed .201/.316/.384 with eleven home runs in 96 games and was more in the Rafael Devers boat of "not necessarily disappointing, but not great either."
Toronto Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez (22 HR, .239/.302/.468, 5 SB, 107 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR)
While Hernandez didn't exactly light the world on fire, he did break out for 22 home runs in his first full season. Overall, 58 extra base hits in 134 games is pretty good, and a 107 wRC+ meant he was an above average hitter despite a low .302 OBP. I'll consider Hernandez a success here, though with his poor defense he was barely above replacement level.
Chicago White Sox: Yoan Moncada (17 HR, .235/.315/.400, 12 SB, 97 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR)
Put Moncada in the same category as Rafael Devers. He was very inconsistent in 2018, slashing as high as .274/.361/.516 in April and as low as .197/.242/.350 in June. Overall, though, his numbers turned out quite decently: 17 home runs, a .235/.315/.400 line, and 2.0 fWAR. He hit the ball hard, but his 33.4% strikeout rate kept him from sustaining hot stretches and kept his overall production more pedestrian. Let's see what happens in 2019.
Cleveland Indians: Bradley Zimmer (2 HR, .226/.281/.330, 4 SB, 63 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR)
Zimmer was limited to just 34 games in 2018 due to injuries, so his big breakout did not come. However, he's just about to turn 25 and Michael Brantley, Rajai Davis, and Brandon Guyer are all free agents, so Zimmer does have a good chance to make 2019 the year.
Detroit Tigers: Jeimer Candelario (19 HR, .224/.317/.393, 3 SB, 95 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR)
Candelario hit 19 home runs, walked at a healthy 10.7% clip, and played good defense in 2018 as a 24 year old near-rookie, but a .224 batting average limited his overall slash line. While expectations may have been a little higher, his 2.5 fWAR shows he was more than solid, and the Tigers should feel comfortable moving forward with him as their starting third baseman.
Kansas City Royals: Adalberto Mondesi (14 HR, .276/.306/.498, 32 SB, 114 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR)
Before the season, I asked "could 2018 finally be Mondesi's year?" and as it turns out, the answer was yes. Mondesi was on the MLB.com top fifty prospect list way back in 2013, and now the 23 year old is finally producing after disappointing 2016 and 2017 seasons in the majors. This year, he slashed .276/.306/.498 with 14 home runs and 32 stolen bases in just 75 games, putting up 2.8 fWAR in less than half a season. Honestly, even I didn't realize Mondesi has that good of a year. His future was in doubt for a while, but now it looks like he can take over at shortstop for the departing Alcides Escobar.
Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton (0 HR, .156/.183/.200, 5 SB, -3 wRC+, -0.4 fWAR)
Well...whoops. I was hoping Buxton would finally take the step forward into stardom or at least semi-stardom after slashing .300/.347/.546 in the second half of 2017, but he was hurt on and off in 2018, spent time in the minors, and ultimately never got anything going. It's hard to believe after four up and down years in the majors, he's still just 24 years old and has plenty of time to make things click, but he'll likely never become the superstar the Twins envisioned when they drafted him second overall in 2012 or when he was widely considered the game's top prospect after slashing .334/.424/.520 with 12 home runs and 55 stolen bases at Class A and High A in 2013.
Houston Astros: David Paulino (1-0, 1.35 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6/2 K/BB, 6.2 IP)
Paulino's prospect status is still intact after pitching parts of three seasons in the majors, and he's still just 24, but ultimately 2018 was not his year after he ended up sitting out much of it with injuries. Traded to the Blue Jays for Roberto Osuna, he'll give it another try in 2019.
Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani (22 HR, .285/.361/.564, 3.31 ERA, 63/22 K/BB, 3.8 fWAR)
Aside from the Tommy John surgery, 2018 could not have gone much better for Ohtani. He became baseball's first legitimate two-way star since Babe Ruth, both hitting and pitching at All Star levels. It's so, so awful that he won't get to pitch in 2019 due to the surgery, but Ohtani was everything even his wildest optimists hoped for in 2018, at least on a per-game basis.
Oakland Athletics: Jharel Cotton (did not play - injured)
Like Honeywell, Jharel Cotton did not appear in 2018 due to Tommy John surgery, and it looks like Matt Chapman would have been a better pick for this spot. My #2 pick behind Cotton, Franklin Barreto, played just 32 games and slashed .233/.253/.493, with his power looking great but his horrid plate discipline holding him back.
Seattle Mariners: Marco Gonzales (13-9, 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 145/32 K/BB, 166.2 IP)
Hey look, a success that wasn't necessarily an obvious pre-season choice like Ohtani. After battling injuries for years, Gonzales was finally healthy in 2018, and he responded in a great way by going 13-9 with a 4.00 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a very solid 145/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 166.2 innings. He was pretty inconsistent start to start, but when he was on, he looked like the future ace the Cardinals thought they drafted in the first round (19th overall) out of Gonzaga back in 2013.
Texas Rangers: Willie Calhoun (2 HR, .222/.269/.333, 0 SB, 55 wRC+, -0.6 fWAR)
Ah, another bust (at least for now). For the second straight season, Calhoun struggled to catch on in the majors, and we'll have to wait another year to see whether his power is the real deal. Among rookies expected to make an impact in 2018, Calhoun was among the biggest disappointments.
Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuna (26 HR, .293/.366/.552, 16 SB, 143 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR)
I don't think the prediction that Acuna would break out was a particularly novel one, and Acuna certainly lived up to the hype by slashing .293/.366/.552 with 26 home runs as a 20 year old. Before the season, there was plenty of praise heaped on him as a future superstar, and so far he has only made those claims stronger. Acuna will be one of the game's better outfielders, if not one of the best, for a long time.
Miami Marlins: Lewis Brinson (11 HR, .199/.240/.338, 2 SB, 56 wRC+, -1.0 fWAR)
On the flip side, Lewis Brinson sucked, to put it frankly. Though he had occasional outbursts of power, he struggled to make contact and only got as much playing time as he did because the Marlins just plain needed him there. I'd rank him ahead of Calhoun as the biggest disappointment of the season just because of his higher pre-season expectations, but the 24 year old can try again next year.
New York Mets: Amed Rosario (9 HR, .256/.295/.381, 24 SB, 85 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR)
While Rosario's numbers don't pop out, good defense at shortstop and better performance later in the season helped him put up an admirable year for a 22 year old. I expect Rosario to continue to develop in 2019 and may then have the breakout we're all waiting for.
Philadelphia Phillies: J.P. Crawford (3 HR, .214/.319/.393, 2 SB, 96 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR)
While Crawford finally began to get some regular playing time after years of being a top prospect, his .214/.319/.393 line over 49 games is still well short of expectations. There's talk that the Phillies might bring in Manny Machado, but if they decide to stick with Crawford, he'll have another opportunity to prove himself next year. He turns 24 in January so he's still young, but he has been stagnant for long enough that some doubt is beginning to creep in.
Washington Nationals: Victor Robles (3 HR, .288/.348/.525, 3 SB, 131 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR)
Victor Robles was supposed to do what Juan Soto did this year, but an arm injury in April knocked him out for three months and by the time he returned, Soto was basically already Babe Ruth. Still, once he was called up for 21 games in September, he looked very good, slashing .288/.348/.525 with three home runs and playing his trademark great defense. It's not Robles' fault he was hurt for much of the season, and I see no reason to think he can't challenge for the 2019 NL Rookie of the Year Award.
Chicago Cubs: Eddie Butler (2-3, 5.62 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 29/19 K/BB, 49.2 IP)
I picked Butler as the Cubs' best breakout candidate, though I did note at the time that the roster was pretty much set and nobody was really likely to have a breakthrough season. Butler couldn't make it work in Chicago and was ultimately sent to Texas in the Cole Hamels deal, where he has been a mediocre reliever.
Cincinnati Reds: Luis Castillo (10-12, 4.30 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 165/49 K/BB, 169.2 IP)
So no, Castillo didn't break out, with his 3.12 ERA and 1.07 WHIP from 2017 being better than this year's marks of 4.30 and 1.22, respectively, though he did only throw 89.1 innings in 2017. However, Castillo looked much better in the second half, going 5-4 with a 2.44 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 11 starts, striking out 69 and walking 14 in 66.1 innings. He's perfectly capable of maintaining that over a full season, and I would not be surprised if next year was the big breakout.
Milwaukee Brewers: Josh Hader (6-1, 2.43 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 143/30 K/BB, 81.1 IP)
I was a little bit disappointed when the Brewers did not end up using Hader as a starter, but he was so good in relief this year (143 strikeouts...really??) that it's hard to regard 2018 as anything but an absolute success. Hader went from intriguing upside prospect to bullpen monster in one year, and he's likely not going anywhere.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Tyler Glasnow (2-7, 4.27 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 136/53 K/BB, 111.2 IP)
So Glasnow didn't exactly break out in 2018, but he did have consistent major league success for the first time in his career, so this is should be regarded as a partial success. I think the Rays will be a good place for him and that he could continue to build on his success next year.
St. Louis Cardinals: Miles Mikolas (18-4, 2.83 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 146/29 K/BB, 200.2 IP)
I don't think 2018 could have possibly gone better for Mikolas. He was very mediocre in his first three seasons in the majors from 2012-2014, but after three years in Japan from 2015-2017, he came back looking like an ace. He didn't overpower hitters, but he hit his spots and induced weak contact to make the NL All Star Team.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Taylor Clarke (did not play - spent year in AAA)
So Clarke did go 13-8 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 2018 - at AAA Reno. He never got his shot in the Arizona rotation in 2018, so he'll try again in 2019, when he'll be 26.
Colorado Rockies: Ryan McMahon (5 HR, .232/.307/.376, 1 SB, 68 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR)
So he got his first significant MLB playing time, but ultimately he could not hang onto the first base job and slashed just .232/.307/.376 in 91 games. At this point, I'm not as confident in McMahon's ability to hold onto a first base job, with Ian Desmond currently getting time there and Grant Lavigne looking to make a quick run through the minors.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Walker Buehler (8-5, 2.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 151/37 K/BB, 137.1 IP)
Buehler had a fantastic rookie season in 2018, putting up a 2.62 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 24 games (23 starts) before dominating in the postseason. That marks three straight seasons in which a rookie put together not just a good but a great season, following Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger. Buehler looks like an ace in the making and will likely remain in the LA rotation for a long time.
San Diego Padres: Dinelson Lamet (did not play - injured)
Okay so in all, I lost three of my breakout picks to Tommy John surgery. That's unfortunate, because I was really looking forward to what Lamet could do in 2018 after striking out 28.7% of his opponents as a rookie in 2017. My second pick, Luis Perdomo, wasn't much better: 1-6, 7.05 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 39/22 K/BB.
San Francisco Giants: Chris Stratton (10-10, 5.09 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 112/54 K/BB, 145 IP)
The numbers weren't great, but on the positive side, Stratton pitched a full season for the first time in his career and even threw a complete game, two hit shutout on September 14th against the Rockies. He'll never reach the potential the Giants thought he had when they took him in the first round (20th overall) out of Mississippi State in 2012, but he looks like he could be a moderately useful back-end starter.
Sunday, November 4, 2018
Biggest Takeaways From the 2018 Season
In my second installment of this piece (see 2017 version here), I'll be looking at exactly what the most important and most memorable developments from the 2018 season were. First off, congratulations to the Boston Red Sox, taking home their ninth World Series title and fourth in the past fourteen years. What else should we remember about 2018?
Pitching Staff Management is Fundamentally Changing
When Buck Showalter failed to use relief-ace Zach Britton in the 2016 AL Wild Card Game because he was waiting for a "save situation," even as the game went into extra innings, it provided the spark that would slowly change pitching staff management forever. We saw it a little bit in the 2017 playoffs, then in 2018, the ball really got rolling. Starters are throwing less than ever, and the Rays (and to a lesser extent the A's) even experimented with openers. Guys like Ryne Stanek, Diego Castillo, Hunter Wood, and Sergio Romo served as openers for Ryan Yarbrough and Yonny Chirinos, and the Rays benefited. I'd expect more teams to join the trend next season. In the playoffs, hooks came quicker than ever, and many of us were surprised to see starters come out for the seventh inning at all when they did. Closers came in in the eighth inning, and hopefully we'll see more of that next season. Whatever you think about bullpening or openers, the starting pitcher is going to continue to recede.
Data Analytics Works
The final four teams in the playoffs - the Red Sox, Astros, Dodgers, and Brewers - were four of the teams that relied the most heavily on analytics. All those high school coaches, barstool pundits, and opinionated uncles who think "the nerds are ruining the game," they might want to either thank them for their favorite team's success. The "eye test" and "gut feelings" just don't match up to empirical data, and we're getting more and more of the latter every year. Sabermetricians already nearly perfected offensive evaluation with stats like wOBA and wRC+, and Statcast is even beginning to dip its foot into quantifying something we have struggled to understand forever: defense. Fielding percentage is an awful judge of ability, and sabermetric stats like DRS (defensive runs saved) and UZR (ultimate zone rating) just began to scratch the surface. With Statcast, we're at least beginning to understand outfield defense with stats like catch probability and outs above average. We still haven't quite figured out how to quantify infield defense with Statcast; that's up next.
Parity is Becoming a Thing of the Past
Unless the MLB does something, our divisions will look more and more like the 2018 AL East, with the Red Sox and Yankees blowing everyone out and the Blue Jays and Orioles sitting at the bottom with no chance. Rebuilds work, and the more you commit to them, the better they do. Look at the Astros. Playing .500 ball is not much better for your fanbase than playing .400 ball, which is in turn not much better than playing .300 ball. Simply put, if you're not winning, then it pays to tear down the team and just lose until your stockpiled prospects reach the majors. That's what we're seeing in Miami, Baltimore, Chicago (White Sox), and Detroit. This is both good for baseball and bad; it's good because it enables small market teams like the ones listed to compete with the Boston's, New York's, and Los Angeles's of the world, but it is bad because it just leads to awful teams and boring division races. I'm not sure what the solution is, but don't expect more than two or three exciting division races per season until something is done.
Mike Trout Might Be the Best Player Ever
The idea that Mike Trout might be one of the best who ever lived entered the national conversation a few years ago, but he might actually end up being the best player ever. Eight years into his career and only a few months after turning 27, he has 240 home runs, a .307/.416/.573 slash line, 189 stolen bases, and 64.7 fWAR. His 172 career wRC+ ranks sixth all time, behind only Babe Ruth (197), Ted Williams (188), Lou Gehrig (173), Rogers Hornsby (173), and Barry Bonds (173). The 64.7 fWAR are already 89th on the all time list, despite every single player ahead of him on the list having played more than 500 more games than him. He's already ahead of plenty of Hall of Famers, from Yogi Berra to Duke Snider to Ernie Banks to Willie Stargell, and he's likely to catch Tony Gwynn and Craig Biggio within the first month of 2019. And he just turned 27 on August 7th.
Clayton Kershaw is No Longer the Best Pitcher in Baseball
It's been a great run for Clayton Kershaw. From 2011-2017, his age 23-29 seasons, he went 118-41 with a 2.10 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 1623/283 strikeout to walk ratio over 1452 innings, good for a 29.1% strikeout rate and a 5.1% walk rate. By those numbers the average season saw him go 17-6 with a 2.10 ERA and a 232/40 strikeout to walk ratio in 207.1 innings. Kershaw's 47.4 pitching fWAR led the majors by a massive margin, 11.2 ahead of second place Max Scherzer's 36.2. That's not only a great run, but one of the best in history. However, there is reason to believe that that run is coming to an end. Kershaw turns 31 in March, and while that's not old, he figures to be past his prime. This past season, he went 9-5 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 26 starts, striking out 155 and walking 29 in 161.1 innings. Those numbers are great, yes, but not Kershaw great. His fastball velocity has been steadily declining from 94.2 MPH in 2015 to 93.6, 92.8, and 90.8 in the last three seasons as he has battled back problems. That's not to say Kershaw isn't still good; he's one of the best in the game and I expect him to contend for the NL Cy Young Award next season, but he's not *the best* anymore.
Something is Happening in Oakland
The A's went 97-65 in 2018 and captured the second AL Wild Card, though based on that record they deserved better. What people might not realize, though, is that they are here to stay. Their entire core outside of Jed Lowrie and second half addition Mike Fiers was young, with guys like Khris Davis (48 HR, .247/.326/.549), Matt Chapman (24 HR, .278/.356/.508), Matt Olson (29 HR, .247/.335/.453), and Lowrie (23 HR, .267/.353/.448) leading the offense and Sean Manaea (12-9, 3.59 ERA), Fiers (5-2, 3.74 ERA post trade), Daniel Mengden (7-6, 4.05 ERA), Blake Treinen (0.78 ERA, 100/21 K/BB), and Lou Trivino (2.92 ERA, 82/31 K/BB) leading the pitching staff. Out of that entire list, only Lowrie is a free agent, though Manaea might not pitch at all in 2019 due to shoulder surgery. However, on the flip side, Jharel Cotton will be back from Tommy John surgery. There are also prospects on the horizon, with Jesus Luzardo, Franklin Barreto, Jorge Mateo, and Ramon Laureano looking to break through sooner rather than later. Nobody saw it coming, but this team is very good and it's built to last. They're not going anywhere in 2019.
New Faces Everywhere
In 2017, we saw the rise of Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Corey Seager, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and others to stardom, and this year, the youth movement continued. Mookie Betts, after a relative down year in 2017 (.264/.344/.459), bounced back with a huge 2018 that saw him slash .346/.438/.640 with 32 home runs and 30 stolen bases, and he's likely to take home the AL MVP Award. Now with 28.7 fWAR over the past three seasons, he has elevated himself to superstar levels. Alex Bregman had a huge season, building on his .284/.352/.475 2017 season by slashing .286/.394/.532 with 31 home runs and 51 doubles, surprising many by being the best hitter in a formidable Houston lineup. The A's have a of young defensive wiz that can also swing the bat in Matt Chapman (24 HR, .278/.356/.508). On the mound, quite a few new starting pitchers turned into aces. Aaron Nola posted a 2.37 ERA and looks poised to lead the Phillies into contention, while Blake Snell dropped his ERA below 2.00. Kyle Freeland even got in on the fun from Colorado, becoming the first Rockies' starter since Ubaldo Jimenez in 2010 to drop his ERA below 3.00. Josh Hader was an unstoppable force in the Milwaukee bullpen, striking out 143 batters in just 81.1 innings (but not without dodging controversy). Oh, and out of Betts, Bregman, Chapman, Nola, Snell, Freeland, and Hader, Betts is the oldest and even he will play the entire 2019 season at just 26 years old.
Don't Forget the Rookies
This year's rookie class was among the best we've ever seen. Shohei Ohtani fulfilled the lofty expectations placed on him and while he won't get to pitch in 2019 due to Tommy John surgery, he has already elevated himself to stardom with both his bat and his arm. Teenager Juan Soto took the baseball world by storm by sprinting up from Class A to the majors in just one month, then slashed .292/.406/.517 with 22 home runs against much, much older competition. Ronald Acuna, less than a year older than Soto, was equally impressive by slashing .293/.366/.552 with 26 home runs and 16 stolen bases for the Braves. Walker Buehler was incredible in Los Angeles, posting a 2.62 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 151/37 strikeout to walk ratio before dominating in the postseason. Miguel Andujar stepped up when the Yankees needed him, slashing .297/.328/.527 with 27 home runs and 47 doubles, while his teammate, Gleyber Torres, slashed .271/.340/.480 with 24 home runs. Harrison Bader showed a decent bat (12 HR, .264/.334/.422) but immediately established himself as one of the best defensive outfielders in the game. Even in that long paragraph of names, I left out guys like Joey Wendle, Ryan Yarbrough, Jack Flaherty, Lou Trivino, Brian Anderson, Jaime Barria, Brad Keller, and Joey Lucchesi.
And Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is coming in April
Pitching Staff Management is Fundamentally Changing
When Buck Showalter failed to use relief-ace Zach Britton in the 2016 AL Wild Card Game because he was waiting for a "save situation," even as the game went into extra innings, it provided the spark that would slowly change pitching staff management forever. We saw it a little bit in the 2017 playoffs, then in 2018, the ball really got rolling. Starters are throwing less than ever, and the Rays (and to a lesser extent the A's) even experimented with openers. Guys like Ryne Stanek, Diego Castillo, Hunter Wood, and Sergio Romo served as openers for Ryan Yarbrough and Yonny Chirinos, and the Rays benefited. I'd expect more teams to join the trend next season. In the playoffs, hooks came quicker than ever, and many of us were surprised to see starters come out for the seventh inning at all when they did. Closers came in in the eighth inning, and hopefully we'll see more of that next season. Whatever you think about bullpening or openers, the starting pitcher is going to continue to recede.
Data Analytics Works
The final four teams in the playoffs - the Red Sox, Astros, Dodgers, and Brewers - were four of the teams that relied the most heavily on analytics. All those high school coaches, barstool pundits, and opinionated uncles who think "the nerds are ruining the game," they might want to either thank them for their favorite team's success. The "eye test" and "gut feelings" just don't match up to empirical data, and we're getting more and more of the latter every year. Sabermetricians already nearly perfected offensive evaluation with stats like wOBA and wRC+, and Statcast is even beginning to dip its foot into quantifying something we have struggled to understand forever: defense. Fielding percentage is an awful judge of ability, and sabermetric stats like DRS (defensive runs saved) and UZR (ultimate zone rating) just began to scratch the surface. With Statcast, we're at least beginning to understand outfield defense with stats like catch probability and outs above average. We still haven't quite figured out how to quantify infield defense with Statcast; that's up next.
Parity is Becoming a Thing of the Past
Unless the MLB does something, our divisions will look more and more like the 2018 AL East, with the Red Sox and Yankees blowing everyone out and the Blue Jays and Orioles sitting at the bottom with no chance. Rebuilds work, and the more you commit to them, the better they do. Look at the Astros. Playing .500 ball is not much better for your fanbase than playing .400 ball, which is in turn not much better than playing .300 ball. Simply put, if you're not winning, then it pays to tear down the team and just lose until your stockpiled prospects reach the majors. That's what we're seeing in Miami, Baltimore, Chicago (White Sox), and Detroit. This is both good for baseball and bad; it's good because it enables small market teams like the ones listed to compete with the Boston's, New York's, and Los Angeles's of the world, but it is bad because it just leads to awful teams and boring division races. I'm not sure what the solution is, but don't expect more than two or three exciting division races per season until something is done.
Mike Trout Might Be the Best Player Ever
The idea that Mike Trout might be one of the best who ever lived entered the national conversation a few years ago, but he might actually end up being the best player ever. Eight years into his career and only a few months after turning 27, he has 240 home runs, a .307/.416/.573 slash line, 189 stolen bases, and 64.7 fWAR. His 172 career wRC+ ranks sixth all time, behind only Babe Ruth (197), Ted Williams (188), Lou Gehrig (173), Rogers Hornsby (173), and Barry Bonds (173). The 64.7 fWAR are already 89th on the all time list, despite every single player ahead of him on the list having played more than 500 more games than him. He's already ahead of plenty of Hall of Famers, from Yogi Berra to Duke Snider to Ernie Banks to Willie Stargell, and he's likely to catch Tony Gwynn and Craig Biggio within the first month of 2019. And he just turned 27 on August 7th.
It's been a great run for Clayton Kershaw. From 2011-2017, his age 23-29 seasons, he went 118-41 with a 2.10 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 1623/283 strikeout to walk ratio over 1452 innings, good for a 29.1% strikeout rate and a 5.1% walk rate. By those numbers the average season saw him go 17-6 with a 2.10 ERA and a 232/40 strikeout to walk ratio in 207.1 innings. Kershaw's 47.4 pitching fWAR led the majors by a massive margin, 11.2 ahead of second place Max Scherzer's 36.2. That's not only a great run, but one of the best in history. However, there is reason to believe that that run is coming to an end. Kershaw turns 31 in March, and while that's not old, he figures to be past his prime. This past season, he went 9-5 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 26 starts, striking out 155 and walking 29 in 161.1 innings. Those numbers are great, yes, but not Kershaw great. His fastball velocity has been steadily declining from 94.2 MPH in 2015 to 93.6, 92.8, and 90.8 in the last three seasons as he has battled back problems. That's not to say Kershaw isn't still good; he's one of the best in the game and I expect him to contend for the NL Cy Young Award next season, but he's not *the best* anymore.
Something is Happening in Oakland
The A's went 97-65 in 2018 and captured the second AL Wild Card, though based on that record they deserved better. What people might not realize, though, is that they are here to stay. Their entire core outside of Jed Lowrie and second half addition Mike Fiers was young, with guys like Khris Davis (48 HR, .247/.326/.549), Matt Chapman (24 HR, .278/.356/.508), Matt Olson (29 HR, .247/.335/.453), and Lowrie (23 HR, .267/.353/.448) leading the offense and Sean Manaea (12-9, 3.59 ERA), Fiers (5-2, 3.74 ERA post trade), Daniel Mengden (7-6, 4.05 ERA), Blake Treinen (0.78 ERA, 100/21 K/BB), and Lou Trivino (2.92 ERA, 82/31 K/BB) leading the pitching staff. Out of that entire list, only Lowrie is a free agent, though Manaea might not pitch at all in 2019 due to shoulder surgery. However, on the flip side, Jharel Cotton will be back from Tommy John surgery. There are also prospects on the horizon, with Jesus Luzardo, Franklin Barreto, Jorge Mateo, and Ramon Laureano looking to break through sooner rather than later. Nobody saw it coming, but this team is very good and it's built to last. They're not going anywhere in 2019.
New Faces Everywhere
In 2017, we saw the rise of Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Corey Seager, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and others to stardom, and this year, the youth movement continued. Mookie Betts, after a relative down year in 2017 (.264/.344/.459), bounced back with a huge 2018 that saw him slash .346/.438/.640 with 32 home runs and 30 stolen bases, and he's likely to take home the AL MVP Award. Now with 28.7 fWAR over the past three seasons, he has elevated himself to superstar levels. Alex Bregman had a huge season, building on his .284/.352/.475 2017 season by slashing .286/.394/.532 with 31 home runs and 51 doubles, surprising many by being the best hitter in a formidable Houston lineup. The A's have a of young defensive wiz that can also swing the bat in Matt Chapman (24 HR, .278/.356/.508). On the mound, quite a few new starting pitchers turned into aces. Aaron Nola posted a 2.37 ERA and looks poised to lead the Phillies into contention, while Blake Snell dropped his ERA below 2.00. Kyle Freeland even got in on the fun from Colorado, becoming the first Rockies' starter since Ubaldo Jimenez in 2010 to drop his ERA below 3.00. Josh Hader was an unstoppable force in the Milwaukee bullpen, striking out 143 batters in just 81.1 innings (but not without dodging controversy). Oh, and out of Betts, Bregman, Chapman, Nola, Snell, Freeland, and Hader, Betts is the oldest and even he will play the entire 2019 season at just 26 years old.
Don't Forget the Rookies
This year's rookie class was among the best we've ever seen. Shohei Ohtani fulfilled the lofty expectations placed on him and while he won't get to pitch in 2019 due to Tommy John surgery, he has already elevated himself to stardom with both his bat and his arm. Teenager Juan Soto took the baseball world by storm by sprinting up from Class A to the majors in just one month, then slashed .292/.406/.517 with 22 home runs against much, much older competition. Ronald Acuna, less than a year older than Soto, was equally impressive by slashing .293/.366/.552 with 26 home runs and 16 stolen bases for the Braves. Walker Buehler was incredible in Los Angeles, posting a 2.62 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 151/37 strikeout to walk ratio before dominating in the postseason. Miguel Andujar stepped up when the Yankees needed him, slashing .297/.328/.527 with 27 home runs and 47 doubles, while his teammate, Gleyber Torres, slashed .271/.340/.480 with 24 home runs. Harrison Bader showed a decent bat (12 HR, .264/.334/.422) but immediately established himself as one of the best defensive outfielders in the game. Even in that long paragraph of names, I left out guys like Joey Wendle, Ryan Yarbrough, Jack Flaherty, Lou Trivino, Brian Anderson, Jaime Barria, Brad Keller, and Joey Lucchesi.
And Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is coming in April
Tuesday, October 9, 2018
2018 Dugout Edge Regular Season Awards: Rookies, Managers, and Relievers
These awards are based on how I would assign them, not on how I believe they will end up. MVP's and Cy Young's were posted previously.
American League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Angels)
Hitting Stats: 22 HR, .285/.361/.564, 10 SB, 152 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR in 104 games
Pitching Stats: 4-2, 3.31 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 63/22 K/BB, 51.2 IP in 10 starts
Honestly, I don't think this race should be particularly close. Shohei Ohtani was clearly the superior rookie to me, generating more offensive fWAR than Miguel Andujar and adding more than 50 innings of above average pitching to roughly match Andujar's number of plate appearances/total batters faced. At the plate, Ohtani slashed .285/.361/.564 with 22 home runs for a 152 wRC+, the latter of which would have placed him fourth in the American League if he had qualified, right between Alex Bregman's 157 and Jose Ramirez's 147. As a pitcher, he posted a 3.31 ERA and a 63/22 strikeout to walk ratio over ten starts, including an absolute gem on April 8th when he tossed seven shutout innings on one hit, one walk, and 12 strikeouts against the A's. The numbers alone make him the best rookie in the American League, but if you put them in context and just think about how amazing the fact that he was pitching and hitting at All Star levels is, and it really should be no competition here.
Runner-Up: Joey Wendle (Tampa Bay Rays)
Stats: 7 HR, .300/.354/.435, 16 SB, 116 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR in 139 games
In the Ohtani-Andujar Rookie of the Year race, Joey Wendle didn't get nearly enough credit. An older rookie at 28, Wendle slashed .300/.354/.435 with 16 stolen bases and very good defense, impacting the game in very way except power. Even with only hitting seven home runs, he still knocked 33 doubles and six triples for a total of 46 extra base hits, good for third among AL rookies behind only Miguel Andujar (76) and Niko Goodrum (48): pretty good for a guy where power is his worst attribute.
Honrable Mention: Miguel Andujar (New York Yankees)
Stats: 27 HR, .297/.328/.527, 2 SB, 128 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR in 149 games
I'm just not as high on Andujar as many people are, though you could make a very good argument to put him ahead of Wendle and it's pretty close in my book. He did still have a great season for a rookie. The 23 year old slashed .297/.328/.527 with 27 home runs and 47 doubles, his power stroke helping the Yankees get plenty of production out of what looked like a murky infield situation pre-season. He didn't get on base much, but the power was unmatched by any AL rookies outside of Ohtani. He also got better as the season went on and had his best month in August, slashing .320/.344/.623 with ten home runs in 30 games, again having difficulty getting on base but really showing off the power. On defense, he helped the Yankees just about as much as Ohtani did as a DH, as in not much.
Others
Gleyber Torres (NYY, 24 HR, .271/.340/.480, 6 SB, 120 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR)
Brad Keller (KC, 9-6, 3.08 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 96/50 K/BB)
Ryan Yarbrough (TB, 16-6, 3.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 128/50 K/BB)
Jaime Barria (LAA, 10-9, 3.41 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 98/47 K/BB)
Willy Adames (TB, 10 HR, .278/.348/.406, 6 SB, 109 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR)
National League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Ronald Acuna (Atlanta Braves)
Stats: 26 HR, .293/.366/.552, 16 SB, 143 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR in 111 games
This was a difficult decision because Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto had virtually identical seasons, with their OPS's (Acuna .917/Soto .923), wOBA's (.388/.392), and fWAR's (3.7/3.7) knotting them together. While they were essentially equal offensively (Acuna has the upper hand in power, Soto in on-base percentage/plate discipline), Acuna was the better defender. Fangraphs didn't like his defense, but Statcast gave him five outs above average to Soto's four below average. Add in his 16 stolen bases, and I think Acuna has just enough to beat Soto by a hair. The 20 year old finished his rookie year slashing .293/.366/.552 with 26 home runs and 16 stolen bases, heating up as the season went on and slashing .322/.403/.625 with 19 home runs and 14 stolen bases in 68 games after the All Star Break. In fact, in August, he slashed .336/.405/.698 with eleven home runs and six stolen bases in 30 games, a pace that would give him nearly 60 home runs and over 30 stolen bases over a full season. Regardless of where he stands with regard to Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna had a fantastic rookie year.
Runner-Up: Juan Soto (Washington Nationals)
Stats: 22 HR, .292/.406/.517, 5 SB, 145 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR in 116 games
As you can see from the stat line, Juan Soto had a very, very similar season to Acuna. While I think Acuna beats him by a hair, I want to go over just how incredible the year was. Soto missed all but 32 games of the 2017 season with injuries, then turned 19 that October. Since he had only played 29 games above complex league baseball (the lowest level of the minors), it made sense to start him at Class A Hagerstown and let him work his way up. 16 games and a .373/.486/.814 slash line later, he was at High A Potomac, where he slashed .371/.466/.790 over 15 games. Up at AA Harrisburg, a feat in and of itself considering his situation, he slashed .323/.400/.581 over eight games and found himself in the majors by May. In the majors, he still didn't stop mashing, slashing .292/.406/.517 with 22 home runs over 116 games. Perhaps even more incredible than the production was the plate discipline he showed, as evidenced by a 99/79 strikeout to walk ratio (20% to 16%). In fact, his 21.9% swing rate on pitches outside the zone was 14th best in baseball among players with at least 450 plate appearances, which is pretty cool in its own right but downright incredible when you consider he's a teenager who began the season in Class A. In the box, he looked as poised and professional as anyone on the field, though his defense and base running could definitely use some work.
Honorable Mention: Walker Buehler (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Stats: 8-5, 2.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 151/37 K/BB, 137.1 IP in 24 games (23 starts)
Walker Buehler was about as good as rookie pitchers get. Over 24 games (23 starts), he posted a 2.62 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP while striking out 151 and walking just 37 over 137.1 innings, good for a 27.9% strikeout rate and just a 6.8% walk rate. Component ratios like that tend to be sustainable, and while he wasn't Corey Seager or Cody Bellinger this year, Buehler is yet another great Dodger rookie. While he did have a tendency to get blown up from time to time, allowing at least four earned runs in five separate games, he closed the season on absolute lockdown mode, going 4-2 with a 1.55 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and an 87/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 75.1 innings from July 31st onwards. He held the Padres hitless for six innings on May 4th and limited the Cardinals to just four baserunners over eight shutout innings on September 14th, striking out nine in the process.
Others
Harrison Bader (STL, 12 HR, .264/.334/.422, 15 SB, 106 wRC+, 3.5 fWAR)
Jack Flaherty (STL, 8-9, 3.34 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 182/59 K/BB)
Brian Anderson (MIA, 11 HR, .273/.357/.400, 2 SB, 113 wRC+, 3.4 fWAR)
Dereck Rodriguez (6-4, 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 89/36 K/BB)
Joey Lucchesi (SD, 8-9, 4.08 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 145/43 K/BB)
American League Manager of the Year
Winner: Kevin Cash (Tampa Bay Rays)
Record: 90-72, .556 WPCT (3rd in AL East), 10 game improvement over 2017
I don't think anybody expected the Rays to win 90 games in the stacked AL East this year, but they did just that in Kevin Cash's first year as manager. The team won not by hitting for power (.406 slugging percentage was 17th in baseball), but by getting on base (.333 on-base percentage was third best) and by mixing up their pitching staff. They did so by famously employing the opener, starting many games with a reliever to get the opposing team's best hitters out before going to a starter for the longer run. The results were great; their 90 ERA- beat last year's 94 ERA- and was far better than 2016's 102 ERA-, and they got these results without burning anybody out. In fact, only two pitchers (Blake Snell and Ryan Yarbrough) threw more than 100 innings, and no true reliever threw more than 70 innings. Instead, ten different pitchers threw between 50 and 70 innings as the workload was evenly balanced out, and almost all were effective with only one posting an ERA above 4.65 (Jacob Faria at 5.40). Cash pioneered a change in baseball that I think will have a lasting impact on how teams try to win.
Runner-Up: Bob Melvin (Oakland Athletics)
Record: 97-65, .599 WPCT (2nd in AL West), 22 game improvement over 2017
While I stand by giving the award to Kevin Cash, Bob Melvin did a fantastic job in helping his team improve 22 games, going from last in the AL West to a Wild Card spot. The A's put up the fourth highest slugging percentage in the majors (.439) on the backs of Khris Davis (.549), Matt Chapman (.508), and Stephen Piscotty (.491). Melvin was able to bring out the best in his offense, and it paid dividends. On the pitching side, he also experimented (to a lesser extent) with the opener, and his team's 92 ERA- was significantly better than 2017's 109.
Honorable Mention: Scott Servais (Seattle Mariners)
Record: 89-73, .549 WPCT (3rd in AL West), 11 game improvement over 2017
Based on the fact that they scored 34 fewer runs than their opponents in 2018, the Mariners significantly over-performed on their win-loss record mostly due to their 36-21 record in one run games and 14-1 record in extra innings games. While that doesn't bode well for future, sustained success in Seattle, I think it reflects well on Servais's ability to manage in close games. I also think the 89 wins is pretty impressive for a team where, frankly, I don't think there was too much talent.
Others
Aaron Boone (NYY, 100-62)
Alex Cora (BOS, 108-54)
National League Manager of the Year
Winner: Brian Snitker (Atlanta Braves)
Record: 90-72, .556 WPCT (1st in NL East), 18 game improvement over 2017
Brian Snitker took a very young team coming off a 72-90 record and reversed it straight up to a 90-72 record. How young were the Braves? Touki Toussaint, who turned 22 in June, was the sixth youngest player to appear for the Braves this year, with four players being born in 1997. To be able to take a team that young and get this much success out of them is extremely impressive. Next year, I think the Braves will be even better.
Runner-Up: Craig Counsell (Milwaukee Brewers)
Record: 96-67, .589 WPCT (1st in NL Central), 9.5 game improvement over 2017
Craig Counsell was dealt an interesting hand, with baseball's deepest outfield and an infield that seemed somewhat mismatched. However, he handled it seemingly with ease, shuffling around his position players to get the right guys playing time while maintaining production. His team got hot at just the right time, winning their last eight games (including game 163) to win the NL Central. I think you could make a strong case for Counsell as the NL Manager of the Year.
Honorable Mention: Bud Black (Colorado Rockies)
Record: 91-72, .558 WPCT (2nd in NL West), 3.5 game improvement over 2017
Bud Black has done a great job turning Colorado into a pitching-oriented team, helping facilitate the rise of Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, Antonio Senzatela, Tyler Anderson, Scott Oberg, and more. I really don't think the Rockies' roster is *that* good, so to be able to squeeze so many wins out of a team with no offense and very young pitchers stuck pitching half their games in pitchers' hell is very impressive. If Rockies management ever got Black some hitters outside of Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, and Trevor Story, this could be a very good team going forward.
Others
Dave Roberts (LAD, 92-71)
Joe Maddon (CHC, 95-68)
American League Reliever of the Year
Winner: Blake Treinen (Oakland Athletics)
Stats: 0.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 38 SV, 100/21 K/BB, 80.1 IP in 68 appearances
Blake Treinen completely turned his career around when he was traded from Washington to Oakland in 2017. With a 5.73 ERA and an 18.9% strikeout rate pre-trade and a 2.13 ERA and a 26.9% strikeout rate post trade, he successfully made the long-awaited transition from thrower to pitcher. This year, he was off the charts: 0.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and a 100/21 strikeout to walk ratio in 80.1 innings. He struck out 31.7% of those that he faced while walking just 6.7%, and he allowed just one earned run after July 21st. In fact, in those final 30.1 innings, he had a 0.30 ERA, a 0.56 WHIP, and a 36/3 strikeout to walk ratio. That's a 32.7% strikeout rate and a 2.7% walk rate if you're keeping track at home. 98 mile per hour diving two seamers will do that.
Runner-Up: Edwin Diaz (Seattle Mariners)
Stats: 1.96 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 57 SV, 124/17 K/BB, 73.1 IP in 73 appearances
Edwin Diaz finished with the second most saves (57) ever for a single season, but that's not why he ranked second on this list because personally, I don't care. What's more astounding is Diaz's 124/17 strikeout to walk ratio, which translates to a 44.3% strikeout rate and a 6.1% walk rate. Imagine for every time you go through the lineup, four of the nine hitters strike out. That was what facing Diaz was like this season, with the 44.3% rate leading the American League this year (min. 50 IP).
Others
Jose LeClerc (TEX, 1.56 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 85/25 K/BB, 57.2 IP)
Collin McHugh (HOU, 1.99 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 94/21 K/BB, 72.1 IP)
Chad Green (NYY, 2.50 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 94/15 K/BB, 75.2 IP)
National League Reliever of the Year
Winner: Josh Hader (Milwaukee Brewers)
Stats: 2.43 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 12 SV, 143/30 K/BB, 81.1 IP in 55 appearances
I find it just a but counter-intuitive to give this award to a pitcher with a 2.43 ERA, but Josh Hader was so good in every other facet of pitching that it had to go to him. While his ERA was a bit elevated in the realm of elite relievers, his 143/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.1 innings was absolutely incredible. His 46.7% strikeout rate (nearly half) not only led all of baseball (min. 50 IP), it was the fourth highest strikeout rate ever, behind only 2014 Aroldis Chapman (52.5%), 2012 Craig Kimbrel (50.2%), and 2017 Kimbrel (49.6%). In addition, by only allowing 36 hits and 30 walks, his WHIP was just 0.81. On April 30th, he had perhaps his best game of the season, striking out eight of the nine batters he faced (including Joey Votto), walking the other batter.
Runner-Up: Jeremy Jeffress (Milwaukee Brewers)
Stats: 1.29 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 15 SV, 89/27 K/BB, 76.2 IP in 73 appearances
The Brewers' bullpen was pretty good, wasn't it? Jeremy Jeffress bounced back from a down 2017 (4.68 ERA, 51/34 K/BB) to post his best season this year, finishing with a 1.29 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. His 89/27 strikeout to walk ratio led to a 29.8% strikeout rate and a 9% walk rate, but by keeping the hits from falling and especially limiting extra base hits (just 12 allowed all year), Jeffress kept the damage to a minimum even in the worst case scenarios, never allowing more than two runs in any of his 73 appearances. He even had a stretch from April 9th to May 27th in which he tossed 22.2 shutout innings on five hits, six walks, and 21 strikeouts for a 0.49 WHIP.
Others
Adam Ottavino (COL, 2.43 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 112/36 K/BB, 77.2 IP)
Kirby Yates (SD, 2.14 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 90/17 K/BB, 63 IP)
Sean Doolittle (WSH, 1.60 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 60/6 K/BB, 45 IP)
American League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Angels)
Hitting Stats: 22 HR, .285/.361/.564, 10 SB, 152 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR in 104 games
Pitching Stats: 4-2, 3.31 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 63/22 K/BB, 51.2 IP in 10 starts
Honestly, I don't think this race should be particularly close. Shohei Ohtani was clearly the superior rookie to me, generating more offensive fWAR than Miguel Andujar and adding more than 50 innings of above average pitching to roughly match Andujar's number of plate appearances/total batters faced. At the plate, Ohtani slashed .285/.361/.564 with 22 home runs for a 152 wRC+, the latter of which would have placed him fourth in the American League if he had qualified, right between Alex Bregman's 157 and Jose Ramirez's 147. As a pitcher, he posted a 3.31 ERA and a 63/22 strikeout to walk ratio over ten starts, including an absolute gem on April 8th when he tossed seven shutout innings on one hit, one walk, and 12 strikeouts against the A's. The numbers alone make him the best rookie in the American League, but if you put them in context and just think about how amazing the fact that he was pitching and hitting at All Star levels is, and it really should be no competition here.
Runner-Up: Joey Wendle (Tampa Bay Rays)
Stats: 7 HR, .300/.354/.435, 16 SB, 116 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR in 139 games
In the Ohtani-Andujar Rookie of the Year race, Joey Wendle didn't get nearly enough credit. An older rookie at 28, Wendle slashed .300/.354/.435 with 16 stolen bases and very good defense, impacting the game in very way except power. Even with only hitting seven home runs, he still knocked 33 doubles and six triples for a total of 46 extra base hits, good for third among AL rookies behind only Miguel Andujar (76) and Niko Goodrum (48): pretty good for a guy where power is his worst attribute.
Honrable Mention: Miguel Andujar (New York Yankees)
Stats: 27 HR, .297/.328/.527, 2 SB, 128 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR in 149 games
I'm just not as high on Andujar as many people are, though you could make a very good argument to put him ahead of Wendle and it's pretty close in my book. He did still have a great season for a rookie. The 23 year old slashed .297/.328/.527 with 27 home runs and 47 doubles, his power stroke helping the Yankees get plenty of production out of what looked like a murky infield situation pre-season. He didn't get on base much, but the power was unmatched by any AL rookies outside of Ohtani. He also got better as the season went on and had his best month in August, slashing .320/.344/.623 with ten home runs in 30 games, again having difficulty getting on base but really showing off the power. On defense, he helped the Yankees just about as much as Ohtani did as a DH, as in not much.
Others
Gleyber Torres (NYY, 24 HR, .271/.340/.480, 6 SB, 120 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR)
Brad Keller (KC, 9-6, 3.08 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 96/50 K/BB)
Ryan Yarbrough (TB, 16-6, 3.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 128/50 K/BB)
Jaime Barria (LAA, 10-9, 3.41 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 98/47 K/BB)
Willy Adames (TB, 10 HR, .278/.348/.406, 6 SB, 109 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR)
National League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Ronald Acuna (Atlanta Braves)
Stats: 26 HR, .293/.366/.552, 16 SB, 143 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR in 111 games
This was a difficult decision because Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto had virtually identical seasons, with their OPS's (Acuna .917/Soto .923), wOBA's (.388/.392), and fWAR's (3.7/3.7) knotting them together. While they were essentially equal offensively (Acuna has the upper hand in power, Soto in on-base percentage/plate discipline), Acuna was the better defender. Fangraphs didn't like his defense, but Statcast gave him five outs above average to Soto's four below average. Add in his 16 stolen bases, and I think Acuna has just enough to beat Soto by a hair. The 20 year old finished his rookie year slashing .293/.366/.552 with 26 home runs and 16 stolen bases, heating up as the season went on and slashing .322/.403/.625 with 19 home runs and 14 stolen bases in 68 games after the All Star Break. In fact, in August, he slashed .336/.405/.698 with eleven home runs and six stolen bases in 30 games, a pace that would give him nearly 60 home runs and over 30 stolen bases over a full season. Regardless of where he stands with regard to Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna had a fantastic rookie year.
Runner-Up: Juan Soto (Washington Nationals)
Stats: 22 HR, .292/.406/.517, 5 SB, 145 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR in 116 games
As you can see from the stat line, Juan Soto had a very, very similar season to Acuna. While I think Acuna beats him by a hair, I want to go over just how incredible the year was. Soto missed all but 32 games of the 2017 season with injuries, then turned 19 that October. Since he had only played 29 games above complex league baseball (the lowest level of the minors), it made sense to start him at Class A Hagerstown and let him work his way up. 16 games and a .373/.486/.814 slash line later, he was at High A Potomac, where he slashed .371/.466/.790 over 15 games. Up at AA Harrisburg, a feat in and of itself considering his situation, he slashed .323/.400/.581 over eight games and found himself in the majors by May. In the majors, he still didn't stop mashing, slashing .292/.406/.517 with 22 home runs over 116 games. Perhaps even more incredible than the production was the plate discipline he showed, as evidenced by a 99/79 strikeout to walk ratio (20% to 16%). In fact, his 21.9% swing rate on pitches outside the zone was 14th best in baseball among players with at least 450 plate appearances, which is pretty cool in its own right but downright incredible when you consider he's a teenager who began the season in Class A. In the box, he looked as poised and professional as anyone on the field, though his defense and base running could definitely use some work.
Honorable Mention: Walker Buehler (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Stats: 8-5, 2.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 151/37 K/BB, 137.1 IP in 24 games (23 starts)
Walker Buehler was about as good as rookie pitchers get. Over 24 games (23 starts), he posted a 2.62 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP while striking out 151 and walking just 37 over 137.1 innings, good for a 27.9% strikeout rate and just a 6.8% walk rate. Component ratios like that tend to be sustainable, and while he wasn't Corey Seager or Cody Bellinger this year, Buehler is yet another great Dodger rookie. While he did have a tendency to get blown up from time to time, allowing at least four earned runs in five separate games, he closed the season on absolute lockdown mode, going 4-2 with a 1.55 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and an 87/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 75.1 innings from July 31st onwards. He held the Padres hitless for six innings on May 4th and limited the Cardinals to just four baserunners over eight shutout innings on September 14th, striking out nine in the process.
Others
Harrison Bader (STL, 12 HR, .264/.334/.422, 15 SB, 106 wRC+, 3.5 fWAR)
Jack Flaherty (STL, 8-9, 3.34 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 182/59 K/BB)
Brian Anderson (MIA, 11 HR, .273/.357/.400, 2 SB, 113 wRC+, 3.4 fWAR)
Dereck Rodriguez (6-4, 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 89/36 K/BB)
Joey Lucchesi (SD, 8-9, 4.08 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 145/43 K/BB)
American League Manager of the Year
Winner: Kevin Cash (Tampa Bay Rays)
Record: 90-72, .556 WPCT (3rd in AL East), 10 game improvement over 2017
I don't think anybody expected the Rays to win 90 games in the stacked AL East this year, but they did just that in Kevin Cash's first year as manager. The team won not by hitting for power (.406 slugging percentage was 17th in baseball), but by getting on base (.333 on-base percentage was third best) and by mixing up their pitching staff. They did so by famously employing the opener, starting many games with a reliever to get the opposing team's best hitters out before going to a starter for the longer run. The results were great; their 90 ERA- beat last year's 94 ERA- and was far better than 2016's 102 ERA-, and they got these results without burning anybody out. In fact, only two pitchers (Blake Snell and Ryan Yarbrough) threw more than 100 innings, and no true reliever threw more than 70 innings. Instead, ten different pitchers threw between 50 and 70 innings as the workload was evenly balanced out, and almost all were effective with only one posting an ERA above 4.65 (Jacob Faria at 5.40). Cash pioneered a change in baseball that I think will have a lasting impact on how teams try to win.
Runner-Up: Bob Melvin (Oakland Athletics)
Record: 97-65, .599 WPCT (2nd in AL West), 22 game improvement over 2017
While I stand by giving the award to Kevin Cash, Bob Melvin did a fantastic job in helping his team improve 22 games, going from last in the AL West to a Wild Card spot. The A's put up the fourth highest slugging percentage in the majors (.439) on the backs of Khris Davis (.549), Matt Chapman (.508), and Stephen Piscotty (.491). Melvin was able to bring out the best in his offense, and it paid dividends. On the pitching side, he also experimented (to a lesser extent) with the opener, and his team's 92 ERA- was significantly better than 2017's 109.
Honorable Mention: Scott Servais (Seattle Mariners)
Record: 89-73, .549 WPCT (3rd in AL West), 11 game improvement over 2017
Based on the fact that they scored 34 fewer runs than their opponents in 2018, the Mariners significantly over-performed on their win-loss record mostly due to their 36-21 record in one run games and 14-1 record in extra innings games. While that doesn't bode well for future, sustained success in Seattle, I think it reflects well on Servais's ability to manage in close games. I also think the 89 wins is pretty impressive for a team where, frankly, I don't think there was too much talent.
Others
Aaron Boone (NYY, 100-62)
Alex Cora (BOS, 108-54)
National League Manager of the Year
Winner: Brian Snitker (Atlanta Braves)
Record: 90-72, .556 WPCT (1st in NL East), 18 game improvement over 2017
Brian Snitker took a very young team coming off a 72-90 record and reversed it straight up to a 90-72 record. How young were the Braves? Touki Toussaint, who turned 22 in June, was the sixth youngest player to appear for the Braves this year, with four players being born in 1997. To be able to take a team that young and get this much success out of them is extremely impressive. Next year, I think the Braves will be even better.
Runner-Up: Craig Counsell (Milwaukee Brewers)
Record: 96-67, .589 WPCT (1st in NL Central), 9.5 game improvement over 2017
Craig Counsell was dealt an interesting hand, with baseball's deepest outfield and an infield that seemed somewhat mismatched. However, he handled it seemingly with ease, shuffling around his position players to get the right guys playing time while maintaining production. His team got hot at just the right time, winning their last eight games (including game 163) to win the NL Central. I think you could make a strong case for Counsell as the NL Manager of the Year.
Honorable Mention: Bud Black (Colorado Rockies)
Record: 91-72, .558 WPCT (2nd in NL West), 3.5 game improvement over 2017
Bud Black has done a great job turning Colorado into a pitching-oriented team, helping facilitate the rise of Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, Antonio Senzatela, Tyler Anderson, Scott Oberg, and more. I really don't think the Rockies' roster is *that* good, so to be able to squeeze so many wins out of a team with no offense and very young pitchers stuck pitching half their games in pitchers' hell is very impressive. If Rockies management ever got Black some hitters outside of Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, and Trevor Story, this could be a very good team going forward.
Others
Dave Roberts (LAD, 92-71)
Joe Maddon (CHC, 95-68)
American League Reliever of the Year
Winner: Blake Treinen (Oakland Athletics)
Stats: 0.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 38 SV, 100/21 K/BB, 80.1 IP in 68 appearances
Blake Treinen completely turned his career around when he was traded from Washington to Oakland in 2017. With a 5.73 ERA and an 18.9% strikeout rate pre-trade and a 2.13 ERA and a 26.9% strikeout rate post trade, he successfully made the long-awaited transition from thrower to pitcher. This year, he was off the charts: 0.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and a 100/21 strikeout to walk ratio in 80.1 innings. He struck out 31.7% of those that he faced while walking just 6.7%, and he allowed just one earned run after July 21st. In fact, in those final 30.1 innings, he had a 0.30 ERA, a 0.56 WHIP, and a 36/3 strikeout to walk ratio. That's a 32.7% strikeout rate and a 2.7% walk rate if you're keeping track at home. 98 mile per hour diving two seamers will do that.
Runner-Up: Edwin Diaz (Seattle Mariners)
Stats: 1.96 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 57 SV, 124/17 K/BB, 73.1 IP in 73 appearances
Edwin Diaz finished with the second most saves (57) ever for a single season, but that's not why he ranked second on this list because personally, I don't care. What's more astounding is Diaz's 124/17 strikeout to walk ratio, which translates to a 44.3% strikeout rate and a 6.1% walk rate. Imagine for every time you go through the lineup, four of the nine hitters strike out. That was what facing Diaz was like this season, with the 44.3% rate leading the American League this year (min. 50 IP).
Others
Jose LeClerc (TEX, 1.56 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 85/25 K/BB, 57.2 IP)
Collin McHugh (HOU, 1.99 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 94/21 K/BB, 72.1 IP)
Chad Green (NYY, 2.50 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 94/15 K/BB, 75.2 IP)
National League Reliever of the Year
Winner: Josh Hader (Milwaukee Brewers)
Stats: 2.43 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 12 SV, 143/30 K/BB, 81.1 IP in 55 appearances
I find it just a but counter-intuitive to give this award to a pitcher with a 2.43 ERA, but Josh Hader was so good in every other facet of pitching that it had to go to him. While his ERA was a bit elevated in the realm of elite relievers, his 143/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.1 innings was absolutely incredible. His 46.7% strikeout rate (nearly half) not only led all of baseball (min. 50 IP), it was the fourth highest strikeout rate ever, behind only 2014 Aroldis Chapman (52.5%), 2012 Craig Kimbrel (50.2%), and 2017 Kimbrel (49.6%). In addition, by only allowing 36 hits and 30 walks, his WHIP was just 0.81. On April 30th, he had perhaps his best game of the season, striking out eight of the nine batters he faced (including Joey Votto), walking the other batter.
Runner-Up: Jeremy Jeffress (Milwaukee Brewers)
Stats: 1.29 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 15 SV, 89/27 K/BB, 76.2 IP in 73 appearances
The Brewers' bullpen was pretty good, wasn't it? Jeremy Jeffress bounced back from a down 2017 (4.68 ERA, 51/34 K/BB) to post his best season this year, finishing with a 1.29 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. His 89/27 strikeout to walk ratio led to a 29.8% strikeout rate and a 9% walk rate, but by keeping the hits from falling and especially limiting extra base hits (just 12 allowed all year), Jeffress kept the damage to a minimum even in the worst case scenarios, never allowing more than two runs in any of his 73 appearances. He even had a stretch from April 9th to May 27th in which he tossed 22.2 shutout innings on five hits, six walks, and 21 strikeouts for a 0.49 WHIP.
Others
Adam Ottavino (COL, 2.43 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 112/36 K/BB, 77.2 IP)
Kirby Yates (SD, 2.14 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 90/17 K/BB, 63 IP)
Sean Doolittle (WSH, 1.60 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 60/6 K/BB, 45 IP)
Monday, February 26, 2018
One 2018 Breakout Star to Watch for Each Team: NL
The AL version of this list was recently published. Here is one guy to watch on each team whose name could be much more familiar by the end of the season. Age for the 2018 season given in parentheses.
Atlanta Braves: OF Ronald Acuna (Age 20)
High A/AA/AAA: 21 HR, .325/.374/.522, 44 SB, 155 wRC+ in 139 games
There are more than a few players primed for breakouts on the Braves, but perhaps none has a higher ceiling for 2017 than Ronald Acuna, the 20 year old sensation who tore up the three highest minor league levels as a teenager last season. Somehow, he got better with each promotion, and between High Class A Florida (28 games), AA Mississippi (57 games), and AAA Gwinnett (54 games), he crushed 21 home runs, stole 44 bases, and slashed .325/.374/.522 with 144 strikeouts to 43 walks in a total of 139 games. The K/BB ratio might not seem to be the prettiest, but his strikeout rate dropped with each level (from 31.7% in High A to 23% in AA to 19.8% in AAA) and his walk rate remained fairly static despite the increase in competition (6.3% to 7.4% to 7%). He'll likely begin 2018 with Gwinnett again to finish ironing out some holes in his approach, but he'll probably be up by the end of April and from there, the sky is the limit. Ender Inciarte is holding down center field, but Lane Adams is far from entrenched in left field and 34 year old Nick Markakis shouldn't be too much of a road block in right. Long story short, when he's ready, which should be very soon if not now, there will be a spot for him to play every day. With his combination of seemingly every tool, he's a star in the making. With that, don't overlook the guys listed below as others; I listed an extra one just because there are so many.
Others: 2B Ozzie Albies, SS Dansby Swanson, LHP Luiz Gohara, LHP Max Fried
Miami Marlins: OF Lewis Brinson (Age 24)
MLB: 2 HR, .106/.236/.277, 1 SB, 30 wRC+ in 21 games
AAA: 13 HR, .331/.400/.562, 11 SB, 146 wRC+ in 76 games
Perhaps the most exciting player to come to Miami in this offseason's complete tear-down was outfielder Lewis Brinson, a South Florida native bursting with tools. He hits and he hits it hard, and with his speed and defense, he's a complete player. While it is true that AAA Colorado Springs plays in a hitters' park in a generally hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, Brinson's .331/.400/.562 slash line is still very impressive and at the very least proves he's major league ready. Though his .106/.236/.277 slash line with the Brewers was a bit less inspiring, he did draw seven walks for a very respectable 12.7% rate, proving he wasn't completely overmatched. Additionally, three of his five hits went for extra bases (including two home runs), so his power transferred up in the small sample as well. With Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, and Ichiro Suzuki all gone from last year's outfield, the stage is set for him to try his hand as a starter in the Marlins' outfield.
Others: 3B Brian Anderson, RHP Sandy Alcantara, OF Magneuris Sierra
New York Mets: SS Amed Rosario (Age 22)
MLB: 4 HR, .248/.271/.394, 7 SB, 74 wRC+ in 46 games
AAA: 7 HR, .328/.367/.466, 19 SB, 116 wRC+ in 94 games
All projection and no track record as recently as the start of the 2016 season, Amed Rosario broke out by slashing .324/.374/.459 with 19 stolen bases between High Class A Port St. Lucie and AA Binghamton that year, then continued to mash with a .328/.367/.466 line and 19 more stolen bases at AAA Las Vegas in 2017. This performance earned a call-up for the 21 year old shortstop, who held his own by slashing .248/.271/.394 across 46 major league games. Rosario is a great defender who has proven bat to ball and running abilities, looking like a future leadoff man if he can learn to take a walk. Unfortunately, the latter may take some time, considering his horrendous 49/3 strikeout to walk ratio with the Mets this past season, though his 87/40 and 67/23 marks in the minors in 2016 and 2017, respectively, are much better. I don't think Rosario will be an instant star in New York, but 2018 could see him begin to build towards that goal.
Others: 1B Dominic Smith, RHP Robert Gsellman, RHP Seth Lugo
Philadelphia Phillies: SS J.P. Crawford (Age 23)
MLB: 0 HR, .214/.356/.300, 1 SB, 83 wRC+ in 23 games
AAA: 15 HR, .243/.351/.405, 5 SB, 114 wRC+ in 127 games
One of the most highly regarded Phillies prospects in recent memory, Crawford has seen his star fade just a little bit upon reaching AAA. In 87 games with Lehigh Valley in 2016, he slashed just .244/.328/.318, and he wasn't much better in the first half of 2017, slashing .211/.328/.330 in 76 games. However, he turned it around in the second half, slashing .287/.385/.513 in 51 games for the IronPigs and earning a call-up to Philadelphia in September. His bat was light in those 23 games (.214/.356/.300), but the second half turnaround was just what the Phillies wanted to see. Crawford should have an easier time adjusting to the majors than most minor leaguers because of his extremely advanced approach at the plate, which helped him to a solid 97/79 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA this year. Even after his promotion to the majors, he held a 22/16 ratio, showing he could spot major league fastballs and offspeeds, so now the only step left is for him to start punishing mistakes.
Others: RHP Nick Pivetta, C Jorge Alfaro, RHP Ben Lively
Washington Nationals: OF Victor Robles (Age 20-21)
MLB: 0 HR, .250/.308/.458, 0 SB, 96 wRC+ in 13 games
High A/AA: 10 HR, .300/.382/.493, 27 SB, 147 wRC+ in 114 games
We round out the NL East with yet another high ceiling, athletic position player, and Victor Robles may end up being the best of them all. Robles, who doesn't turn 21 until May 19th, is currently the youngest player ever to suit up in the majors, and joins Ozzie Albies (January birthday) as one of only two MLB players born in the year 1997. Robles began the season at High Class A Potomac, but slashed .289/.377/.495 with 16 stolen bases in 77 games to force a promotion to AA Harrisburg, where he kept on hitting to the tune of a .324/.394/.489 slash line and 11 stolen bases in 37 games. In the majors for the month of September, he put up a respectable .250/.308/.458 line over 13 games, showing that he is at least ready for a shot. He'll likely start with some seasoning in AAA, but once he comes up, he can impact the game in a multitude of ways. For starters, he's blazing fast and has a cannon arm, making him a potential Gold Glove defender in center field, and he has great plate discipline for such a young player. Combine that with his athleticism and natural feel for the barrel, and he can post high on-base percentages and be a perfect leadoff man. The only area where he doesn't excel is power, but he should generate average pop and with his strong, athletic build, could max out as an Andrew McCutchen-type player. On top of it all, he is considered to have a great head on his shoulders, and that will be invaluable when his chance in the big leagues comes, likely sooner rather than later.
Others: RHP A.J. Cole, RHP Erick Fedde, OF Andrew Stevenson
Chicago Cubs: RHP Eddie Butler (Age 27)
MLB: 4-3, 3.95 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 30/28 K/BB, 54.2 IP in 13 games (11 starts)
AAA: 2-0, 2.17 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 30/12 K/BB, 45.2 IP in 8 starts
It's tough to pinpoint any real breakout candidate on the Cubs, considering pretty much every position is set with veterans or otherwise proven players. That said, if any of Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, or Tyler Chatwood gets hurt, Eddie Butler could be the guy who steps up and makes an impact. Butler pushed himself into the national prospect conversation by dominating the mid-minor leagues in 2013 (9-5, 1.80 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 143/52 K/BB across three levels), but the former Radford Highlander never quite figured it out with the Rockies, going 6-16 with a 6.50 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP in parts of three seasons with them. Traded to the Cubs in 2017, he finally found his footing in the majors, going 4-3 with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 13 games (11 starts), and he could springboard off of that in 2018 if given the opportunity (though fellow starters Mike Montgomery and Jen-Ho Tseng will also gun for a spot in the case of an injury).
Others: OF Albert Almora, C Victor Caratini, RHP Jen-Ho Tseng
Cincinnati Reds: RHP Luis Castillo (Age 25)
MLB: 3-7, 3.12 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 98/32 K/BB, 89.1 IP in 15 starts
AA: 4-4, 2.58 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 81/13 K/BB, 80.1 IP in 14 starts
Traded as a part of the Casey McGehee deal of 2014, the Andrew Cashner deal of 2016, and the Dan Straily deal of 2017, Luis Castillo is making the Giants, Padres, Marlins regret their decisions. He dominated AA in 2017 (2.58 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 81/13 K/BB with Pensacola) before a call-up to Cincinnati, where he continued to mow down hitters to the tune of a 3.12 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 98/32 strikeout to walk ratio. Interestingly, his strikeout rate actually went up after his promotion to the majors, having struck out 25.6% of AA hitters and 27.3% of major league hitters. He likely won't best his half-season rate stats from 2017, but those numbers held over a full season are borderline ace level. If his 2017 stats were for real, which I believe they may have been, then Castillo is the next face of the Reds rotation and that could begin in 2018.
Others: OF Jesse Winker, RHP Sal Romano, RHP Robert Stephenson
Milwaukee Brewers: LHP Josh Hader (Age 24)
MLB: 2-3, 2.08 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 68/22 K/BB, 47.2 IP in 35 games
AAA: 3-4, 5.37 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 51/31 K/BB, 52 IP in 12 starts
Drafted in the 19th round out of a Maryland high school way back in 2012, Josh Hader slowly climbed the minor league ladder while dominating his competition, going 23-17 with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 101 games (69 starts) up through his promotion to AAA Colorado Springs in 2016, striking out 471 and walking 171 in 420.1 innings. However, he struggled to adjust to the extremely hitter-friendly conditions in Colorado Springs and the Pacific Coast League, and in 26 starts since that promotion, he is 4-11 with a 5.28 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. The Brewers decided to give him a change of scenery by not only promoting him to the majors, but shifting him to the bullpen as well. It worked, as Hader dominated major league hitters to the tune of a 2.08 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 68/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 47.2 innings. Manager Craig Counsell has said that he will begin 2018 in the bullpen again, but a move to the rotation is certainly possible and Hader has the stuff to do it. In a best case scenario, Hader could become a mid-rotation force or better for the Brewers in the near future, and even if that isn't the case, he has proven he is very effective as a power reliever.
Others: RHP Brandon Woodruff, RHP Luis Ortiz, RHP Corbin Burnes
Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP Tyler Glasnow (Age 24)
MLB: 2-7, 7.69 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, 56/44 K/BB, 62 IP in 15 games (13 starts)
AAA: 9-2, 1.93 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 140/32 K/BB, 93.1 IP in 15 starts
Tyler Glasnow is about as enigmatic as it gets. The 6'8" right hander has absolutely obliterated minor league hitting to the tune of a 45-21 record, a 2.02 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 785/278 strikeout to walk ratio in 593.1 innings. This utter domination includes AAA, where he is a career 19-6 pitcher with a 1.95 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 321/116 strikeout to walk ratio over 244.1 innings. The trouble, however, has been translating that success just one more step to the majors. Over 22 major league outings over the past two seasons (including 17 starts), he is 2-9 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP, striking out 80 and walking 57 in 85.1 innings. He still has that blazing mid to upper 90's fastball, but his command has been non-existent and hitters have been able to punish his mistakes. While he struck out 38.5% of those he faced in AAA this year, that number stood at just 18.4% in the majors, while his walk rate jumped from 8.8% to 14.4%. Glasnow does have an opportunity to jump back into the rotation if one of Jameson Taillon, Ivan Nova, Joe Musgrove, Chad Kuhl, or Trevor Williams gets hurt or becomes ineffective, and if he can put it together in 2018, he could finally become the rotation force the Pirates have envisioned for years. However, the Pirates have stated that they are open to using him in the bullpen this year, where his fastball could play up into the upper 90's and he could focus his energy. Either way, this could be the year Glasnow finds success, even if it's not the ace-level success some envisioned when he was climbing through the minors.
Others: 3B Colin Moran, OF Jordan Luplow, OF Austin Meadows
St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Miles Mikolas (Age 29)
NPB (Japan): 14-8, 2.25 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 187/23 K/BB, 188 IP in 27 starts
Last year, Eric Thames made a triumphant return from three years in South Korea to blast 31 home runs for the Brewers. This year, their NL Central rivals are hoping to catch the same lightning in a bottle, this time from Japan. Miles Mikolas (Mikolas pronounced like Mike) was last season in the U.S. going 2-5 with a 6.44 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 10 starts for the Rangers in 2014, so he headed to Japan to play for the Yomiuri Giants. Apparently, something clicked for him over there, and in three seasons in the NPB, Mikolas went 31-13 with a 2.18 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 378/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 424.2 innings in 62 starts. His strikeout rate went up each year, from 14.9% in 2014, his final year in the MLB to 19.2% in his first year in Japan in 2015, to 22% in 2016, and finally up to 25.1% in 2017. Meanwhile, he posted a career-low 3.1% walk rate this year, and the Cardinals liked his performance enough to give him a two year, $15.5 million deal. He apparently upped his velocity during his time in Japan while refining his secondary pitches, all while maintaining and even improving the stellar command he had in the states. Eric Thames showed us that it isn't impossible for American returnees from Asia to make an impact right away, and Mikolas will look to follow in his footsteps.
Others: RHP Luke Weaver, RHP Jack Flaherty, RHP Alex Reyes
Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Taylor Clarke (24-25)
AA/AAA: 12-9, 3.35 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 138/52 K/BB, 145 IP in 27 starts
There aren't many openings in the Arizona lineup for new guys to break in, and the rotation looks set with Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, Patrick Corbin, and Zack Godley. However, one is bound to get hurt, and Braden Shipley and Taylor Clarke look like frontrunners to take that spot if it comes up. Originally drafted in the third round out of the College of Charleston as a senior in 2015, Clarke pitched very well in 2015 and 2016 and began 2017 with AA Jackson, where he put up a very strong 2.91 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 107/39 strikeout to walk ratio in 111.1 innings. Promoted to AAA Reno not long after his 22nd birthday, Clarke finally found a challenge in the hitter-friendly environment, going 3-2 with a 4.81 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over six starts, striking out 31 and walking 13 in 33.2 innings. Still, his strikeout rate remained stable by dropping just two points from 23.5% to 21.5%, as did his walk rate by rising from 8.6% to 9%. A fly ball pitcher, he was hurt by the thin air of the Pacific Coast League, and while Arizona has some pretty thin air as well, they just introduced a humidor to try to mitigate that effect. The humidor could be a huge help for Clarke, and if given the chance, the Ashburn, Virginia native could make an impact on the NL West pennant race.
Others: RHP Braden Shipley, 2B Ketel Marte, RHP Jimmie Sherfy
Colorado Rockies: 1B Ryan McMahon (Age 23)
MLB: 0 HR, .158/.333/.211, 0 SB, 46 wRC+ in 17 games
AA/AAA: 20 HR, .355/.403/.583, 11 SB, 157 wRC+ in 119 games
A year ago, Ryan McMahon was in a very different position, coming off a season in which he struggled for the first time in his career (12 HR, .242/.325/.399 in 133 games at AA), and he was set to repeat the level to start his 2017 season. However, this time around, he proved 2016 to be a fluke and slashed .326/.390/.536 with six home runs in 49 games, forcing a promotion to AAA Albuquerque. There, in the hitter-friendly environment, he moved himself from "good" to "elite" in the prospect rankings, slashing .374/.411/.612 with 14 home runs in 70 games, finding himself in the majors by August. While he struggled against major league pitching (.158/.333/.211), he did manage five walks against five strikeouts, and if he can get just a bit more loft on the ball (he's primarily a ground ball hitter), his power could take off at Coors Field. He has a clear path to starting at first base this season, so watch for McMahon's bat in the thin air.
Others: OF Raimel Tapia, RHP Jeff Hoffman, C Tom Murphy
Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Walker Buehler (Age 23-24)
MLB: 1-0, 7.71 ERA, 2.04 WHIP, 12/8 K/BB, 9.1 IP in 8 games
High A/AA/AAA: 3-3, 3.35 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 125/31 K/BB, 88.2 IP in 28 games (19 starts)
The Dodgers seemingly always have breakout guys who jump into the national conversation early on. Last year, it was Cody Bellinger. The year before, it was Corey Seager. Before that, you had guys like Yasiel Puig and Justin Turner turning into stars. This year, there are two main candidates to be the next guy, and I'm going to write up Walker Buehler over Alex Verdugo. Buehler was drafted in the first round, 24th overall, as part of a standout Vanderbilt class in 2015, following Dansby Swanson (1st) and Carson Fulmer (8th). However, it would be over a year before Buehler stepped foot on a minor league mound after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and he didn't really get his career going until 2017. However, he dominated High Class A in five starts (1.10 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 27/5 K/BB) and found himself in AA, where he continued to pitch well (3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 64/15 K/BB). He finally found a challenge with AAA Oklahoma City, putting up a respectable 4.63 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 34/11 strikeout to walk ratio in the hitter-friendly environment. Promoted to the majors for eight relief appearances, he was knocked around a bit (7.71 ERA, 2.04 WHIP), but he did strike out 27.3% of those he faced (12 in 9.1 innings). The Dodger rotation looks to consist of Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, Alex Wood, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Kenta Maeda, but if one gets injured (and with Hill and Ryu in there, one probably will), Buehler could be the first to hear his name called. If he can ring in his command just a little, his stuff is nasty enough (upper 90's fastball, plus curveball), he could give the Dodgers a third straight NL Rookie of the Year Award winner.
Others: OF Alex Verdugo, RHP Brock Stewart, RHP Dennis Santana
San Diego Padres: RHP Dinelson Lamet (Age 25-26)
MLB: 7-8, 4.57 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 139/54 K/BB, 114.1 IP in 21 starts
AAA: 3-2, 3.23 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 50/20 K/BB, 39 IP in 8 starts
Dinelson Lamet didn't make his minor league debut until he was 22, which is old for a Dominican prospect, but he rose quickly once he got on the professional mound. In full season ball by 2015, he jumped three levels in 2016 and began 2017 at AAA El Paso in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. However, nobody seemed to tell Lamet that the environment was supposed to be difficult, and after eight solid starts (3.23 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 50/20 K/BB), he was promoted to the majors. Making 21 starts for the Padres, he struggled a bit with command (11.1% walk rate), but hitters had a tough time connecting with his nasty stuff and he struck out 28.7% of those he faced, or 139 in 114.1 innings. Unfortunately, his walk rate did rise throughout the year, but if he can keep his stuff in check, it's nasty enough to make him a mid-rotation starter and to build on the 4.57 ERA from this year. The Padres are still rebuilding, so as long as he stays healthy, he should have no problem earning a spot in the rotation and could thrive.
Others: RHP Luis Perdomo, OF Hunter Renfroe, RHP Kaz Makita
San Francisco Giants: RHP Chris Stratton (Age 27)
MLB: 4-4, 3.68 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 51/28 K/BB, 58.2 IP in 13 games (10 starts)
AAA: 4-5, 5.11 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 71/22 K/BB, 79.1 IP in 15 starts
The Giants are doing their best to go worst to first this year, adding numerous bats including Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria. However, the pitching staff has remained mostly untouched, especially in the starting department, leaving two unproven guys to take the #4 and #5 spots. Chris Stratton, Tyler Beede, and Andrew Suarez are frontrunners, but Stratton has a particularly strong case and could be in for a big season. Picked 20th overall out of Mississippi State in 2012, he developed slowly didn't get his first extended look in the majors until 2017, his age-26 season. In it, he was successful, going 4-4 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP over 13 games (10 starts), but there is certainly room for improvement. His 10.9% walk rate was a bit high, but his walk rate trended down slightly as the season moved on. With a full season in pitcher-friendly San Francisco, Stratton could finally fulfill his mid-rotation potential.
Others: RHP Tyler Beede, LHP Andrew Suarez, 2B Miguel Gomez
Atlanta Braves: OF Ronald Acuna (Age 20)
High A/AA/AAA: 21 HR, .325/.374/.522, 44 SB, 155 wRC+ in 139 games
There are more than a few players primed for breakouts on the Braves, but perhaps none has a higher ceiling for 2017 than Ronald Acuna, the 20 year old sensation who tore up the three highest minor league levels as a teenager last season. Somehow, he got better with each promotion, and between High Class A Florida (28 games), AA Mississippi (57 games), and AAA Gwinnett (54 games), he crushed 21 home runs, stole 44 bases, and slashed .325/.374/.522 with 144 strikeouts to 43 walks in a total of 139 games. The K/BB ratio might not seem to be the prettiest, but his strikeout rate dropped with each level (from 31.7% in High A to 23% in AA to 19.8% in AAA) and his walk rate remained fairly static despite the increase in competition (6.3% to 7.4% to 7%). He'll likely begin 2018 with Gwinnett again to finish ironing out some holes in his approach, but he'll probably be up by the end of April and from there, the sky is the limit. Ender Inciarte is holding down center field, but Lane Adams is far from entrenched in left field and 34 year old Nick Markakis shouldn't be too much of a road block in right. Long story short, when he's ready, which should be very soon if not now, there will be a spot for him to play every day. With his combination of seemingly every tool, he's a star in the making. With that, don't overlook the guys listed below as others; I listed an extra one just because there are so many.
Others: 2B Ozzie Albies, SS Dansby Swanson, LHP Luiz Gohara, LHP Max Fried
Miami Marlins: OF Lewis Brinson (Age 24)
MLB: 2 HR, .106/.236/.277, 1 SB, 30 wRC+ in 21 games
AAA: 13 HR, .331/.400/.562, 11 SB, 146 wRC+ in 76 games
Perhaps the most exciting player to come to Miami in this offseason's complete tear-down was outfielder Lewis Brinson, a South Florida native bursting with tools. He hits and he hits it hard, and with his speed and defense, he's a complete player. While it is true that AAA Colorado Springs plays in a hitters' park in a generally hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, Brinson's .331/.400/.562 slash line is still very impressive and at the very least proves he's major league ready. Though his .106/.236/.277 slash line with the Brewers was a bit less inspiring, he did draw seven walks for a very respectable 12.7% rate, proving he wasn't completely overmatched. Additionally, three of his five hits went for extra bases (including two home runs), so his power transferred up in the small sample as well. With Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, and Ichiro Suzuki all gone from last year's outfield, the stage is set for him to try his hand as a starter in the Marlins' outfield.
Others: 3B Brian Anderson, RHP Sandy Alcantara, OF Magneuris Sierra
New York Mets: SS Amed Rosario (Age 22)
MLB: 4 HR, .248/.271/.394, 7 SB, 74 wRC+ in 46 games
AAA: 7 HR, .328/.367/.466, 19 SB, 116 wRC+ in 94 games
All projection and no track record as recently as the start of the 2016 season, Amed Rosario broke out by slashing .324/.374/.459 with 19 stolen bases between High Class A Port St. Lucie and AA Binghamton that year, then continued to mash with a .328/.367/.466 line and 19 more stolen bases at AAA Las Vegas in 2017. This performance earned a call-up for the 21 year old shortstop, who held his own by slashing .248/.271/.394 across 46 major league games. Rosario is a great defender who has proven bat to ball and running abilities, looking like a future leadoff man if he can learn to take a walk. Unfortunately, the latter may take some time, considering his horrendous 49/3 strikeout to walk ratio with the Mets this past season, though his 87/40 and 67/23 marks in the minors in 2016 and 2017, respectively, are much better. I don't think Rosario will be an instant star in New York, but 2018 could see him begin to build towards that goal.
Others: 1B Dominic Smith, RHP Robert Gsellman, RHP Seth Lugo
Philadelphia Phillies: SS J.P. Crawford (Age 23)
MLB: 0 HR, .214/.356/.300, 1 SB, 83 wRC+ in 23 games
AAA: 15 HR, .243/.351/.405, 5 SB, 114 wRC+ in 127 games
One of the most highly regarded Phillies prospects in recent memory, Crawford has seen his star fade just a little bit upon reaching AAA. In 87 games with Lehigh Valley in 2016, he slashed just .244/.328/.318, and he wasn't much better in the first half of 2017, slashing .211/.328/.330 in 76 games. However, he turned it around in the second half, slashing .287/.385/.513 in 51 games for the IronPigs and earning a call-up to Philadelphia in September. His bat was light in those 23 games (.214/.356/.300), but the second half turnaround was just what the Phillies wanted to see. Crawford should have an easier time adjusting to the majors than most minor leaguers because of his extremely advanced approach at the plate, which helped him to a solid 97/79 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA this year. Even after his promotion to the majors, he held a 22/16 ratio, showing he could spot major league fastballs and offspeeds, so now the only step left is for him to start punishing mistakes.
Others: RHP Nick Pivetta, C Jorge Alfaro, RHP Ben Lively
Washington Nationals: OF Victor Robles (Age 20-21)
MLB: 0 HR, .250/.308/.458, 0 SB, 96 wRC+ in 13 games
High A/AA: 10 HR, .300/.382/.493, 27 SB, 147 wRC+ in 114 games
We round out the NL East with yet another high ceiling, athletic position player, and Victor Robles may end up being the best of them all. Robles, who doesn't turn 21 until May 19th, is currently the youngest player ever to suit up in the majors, and joins Ozzie Albies (January birthday) as one of only two MLB players born in the year 1997. Robles began the season at High Class A Potomac, but slashed .289/.377/.495 with 16 stolen bases in 77 games to force a promotion to AA Harrisburg, where he kept on hitting to the tune of a .324/.394/.489 slash line and 11 stolen bases in 37 games. In the majors for the month of September, he put up a respectable .250/.308/.458 line over 13 games, showing that he is at least ready for a shot. He'll likely start with some seasoning in AAA, but once he comes up, he can impact the game in a multitude of ways. For starters, he's blazing fast and has a cannon arm, making him a potential Gold Glove defender in center field, and he has great plate discipline for such a young player. Combine that with his athleticism and natural feel for the barrel, and he can post high on-base percentages and be a perfect leadoff man. The only area where he doesn't excel is power, but he should generate average pop and with his strong, athletic build, could max out as an Andrew McCutchen-type player. On top of it all, he is considered to have a great head on his shoulders, and that will be invaluable when his chance in the big leagues comes, likely sooner rather than later.
Others: RHP A.J. Cole, RHP Erick Fedde, OF Andrew Stevenson
Chicago Cubs: RHP Eddie Butler (Age 27)
MLB: 4-3, 3.95 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 30/28 K/BB, 54.2 IP in 13 games (11 starts)
AAA: 2-0, 2.17 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 30/12 K/BB, 45.2 IP in 8 starts
It's tough to pinpoint any real breakout candidate on the Cubs, considering pretty much every position is set with veterans or otherwise proven players. That said, if any of Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, or Tyler Chatwood gets hurt, Eddie Butler could be the guy who steps up and makes an impact. Butler pushed himself into the national prospect conversation by dominating the mid-minor leagues in 2013 (9-5, 1.80 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 143/52 K/BB across three levels), but the former Radford Highlander never quite figured it out with the Rockies, going 6-16 with a 6.50 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP in parts of three seasons with them. Traded to the Cubs in 2017, he finally found his footing in the majors, going 4-3 with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 13 games (11 starts), and he could springboard off of that in 2018 if given the opportunity (though fellow starters Mike Montgomery and Jen-Ho Tseng will also gun for a spot in the case of an injury).
Others: OF Albert Almora, C Victor Caratini, RHP Jen-Ho Tseng
Cincinnati Reds: RHP Luis Castillo (Age 25)
MLB: 3-7, 3.12 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 98/32 K/BB, 89.1 IP in 15 starts
AA: 4-4, 2.58 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 81/13 K/BB, 80.1 IP in 14 starts
Traded as a part of the Casey McGehee deal of 2014, the Andrew Cashner deal of 2016, and the Dan Straily deal of 2017, Luis Castillo is making the Giants, Padres, Marlins regret their decisions. He dominated AA in 2017 (2.58 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 81/13 K/BB with Pensacola) before a call-up to Cincinnati, where he continued to mow down hitters to the tune of a 3.12 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 98/32 strikeout to walk ratio. Interestingly, his strikeout rate actually went up after his promotion to the majors, having struck out 25.6% of AA hitters and 27.3% of major league hitters. He likely won't best his half-season rate stats from 2017, but those numbers held over a full season are borderline ace level. If his 2017 stats were for real, which I believe they may have been, then Castillo is the next face of the Reds rotation and that could begin in 2018.
Others: OF Jesse Winker, RHP Sal Romano, RHP Robert Stephenson
Milwaukee Brewers: LHP Josh Hader (Age 24)
MLB: 2-3, 2.08 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 68/22 K/BB, 47.2 IP in 35 games
AAA: 3-4, 5.37 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 51/31 K/BB, 52 IP in 12 starts
Drafted in the 19th round out of a Maryland high school way back in 2012, Josh Hader slowly climbed the minor league ladder while dominating his competition, going 23-17 with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 101 games (69 starts) up through his promotion to AAA Colorado Springs in 2016, striking out 471 and walking 171 in 420.1 innings. However, he struggled to adjust to the extremely hitter-friendly conditions in Colorado Springs and the Pacific Coast League, and in 26 starts since that promotion, he is 4-11 with a 5.28 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. The Brewers decided to give him a change of scenery by not only promoting him to the majors, but shifting him to the bullpen as well. It worked, as Hader dominated major league hitters to the tune of a 2.08 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 68/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 47.2 innings. Manager Craig Counsell has said that he will begin 2018 in the bullpen again, but a move to the rotation is certainly possible and Hader has the stuff to do it. In a best case scenario, Hader could become a mid-rotation force or better for the Brewers in the near future, and even if that isn't the case, he has proven he is very effective as a power reliever.
Others: RHP Brandon Woodruff, RHP Luis Ortiz, RHP Corbin Burnes
Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP Tyler Glasnow (Age 24)
MLB: 2-7, 7.69 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, 56/44 K/BB, 62 IP in 15 games (13 starts)
AAA: 9-2, 1.93 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 140/32 K/BB, 93.1 IP in 15 starts
Tyler Glasnow is about as enigmatic as it gets. The 6'8" right hander has absolutely obliterated minor league hitting to the tune of a 45-21 record, a 2.02 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 785/278 strikeout to walk ratio in 593.1 innings. This utter domination includes AAA, where he is a career 19-6 pitcher with a 1.95 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 321/116 strikeout to walk ratio over 244.1 innings. The trouble, however, has been translating that success just one more step to the majors. Over 22 major league outings over the past two seasons (including 17 starts), he is 2-9 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP, striking out 80 and walking 57 in 85.1 innings. He still has that blazing mid to upper 90's fastball, but his command has been non-existent and hitters have been able to punish his mistakes. While he struck out 38.5% of those he faced in AAA this year, that number stood at just 18.4% in the majors, while his walk rate jumped from 8.8% to 14.4%. Glasnow does have an opportunity to jump back into the rotation if one of Jameson Taillon, Ivan Nova, Joe Musgrove, Chad Kuhl, or Trevor Williams gets hurt or becomes ineffective, and if he can put it together in 2018, he could finally become the rotation force the Pirates have envisioned for years. However, the Pirates have stated that they are open to using him in the bullpen this year, where his fastball could play up into the upper 90's and he could focus his energy. Either way, this could be the year Glasnow finds success, even if it's not the ace-level success some envisioned when he was climbing through the minors.
Others: 3B Colin Moran, OF Jordan Luplow, OF Austin Meadows
St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Miles Mikolas (Age 29)
NPB (Japan): 14-8, 2.25 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 187/23 K/BB, 188 IP in 27 starts
Last year, Eric Thames made a triumphant return from three years in South Korea to blast 31 home runs for the Brewers. This year, their NL Central rivals are hoping to catch the same lightning in a bottle, this time from Japan. Miles Mikolas (Mikolas pronounced like Mike) was last season in the U.S. going 2-5 with a 6.44 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 10 starts for the Rangers in 2014, so he headed to Japan to play for the Yomiuri Giants. Apparently, something clicked for him over there, and in three seasons in the NPB, Mikolas went 31-13 with a 2.18 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 378/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 424.2 innings in 62 starts. His strikeout rate went up each year, from 14.9% in 2014, his final year in the MLB to 19.2% in his first year in Japan in 2015, to 22% in 2016, and finally up to 25.1% in 2017. Meanwhile, he posted a career-low 3.1% walk rate this year, and the Cardinals liked his performance enough to give him a two year, $15.5 million deal. He apparently upped his velocity during his time in Japan while refining his secondary pitches, all while maintaining and even improving the stellar command he had in the states. Eric Thames showed us that it isn't impossible for American returnees from Asia to make an impact right away, and Mikolas will look to follow in his footsteps.
Others: RHP Luke Weaver, RHP Jack Flaherty, RHP Alex Reyes
Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Taylor Clarke (24-25)
AA/AAA: 12-9, 3.35 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 138/52 K/BB, 145 IP in 27 starts
There aren't many openings in the Arizona lineup for new guys to break in, and the rotation looks set with Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, Patrick Corbin, and Zack Godley. However, one is bound to get hurt, and Braden Shipley and Taylor Clarke look like frontrunners to take that spot if it comes up. Originally drafted in the third round out of the College of Charleston as a senior in 2015, Clarke pitched very well in 2015 and 2016 and began 2017 with AA Jackson, where he put up a very strong 2.91 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 107/39 strikeout to walk ratio in 111.1 innings. Promoted to AAA Reno not long after his 22nd birthday, Clarke finally found a challenge in the hitter-friendly environment, going 3-2 with a 4.81 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over six starts, striking out 31 and walking 13 in 33.2 innings. Still, his strikeout rate remained stable by dropping just two points from 23.5% to 21.5%, as did his walk rate by rising from 8.6% to 9%. A fly ball pitcher, he was hurt by the thin air of the Pacific Coast League, and while Arizona has some pretty thin air as well, they just introduced a humidor to try to mitigate that effect. The humidor could be a huge help for Clarke, and if given the chance, the Ashburn, Virginia native could make an impact on the NL West pennant race.
Others: RHP Braden Shipley, 2B Ketel Marte, RHP Jimmie Sherfy
Colorado Rockies: 1B Ryan McMahon (Age 23)
MLB: 0 HR, .158/.333/.211, 0 SB, 46 wRC+ in 17 games
AA/AAA: 20 HR, .355/.403/.583, 11 SB, 157 wRC+ in 119 games
A year ago, Ryan McMahon was in a very different position, coming off a season in which he struggled for the first time in his career (12 HR, .242/.325/.399 in 133 games at AA), and he was set to repeat the level to start his 2017 season. However, this time around, he proved 2016 to be a fluke and slashed .326/.390/.536 with six home runs in 49 games, forcing a promotion to AAA Albuquerque. There, in the hitter-friendly environment, he moved himself from "good" to "elite" in the prospect rankings, slashing .374/.411/.612 with 14 home runs in 70 games, finding himself in the majors by August. While he struggled against major league pitching (.158/.333/.211), he did manage five walks against five strikeouts, and if he can get just a bit more loft on the ball (he's primarily a ground ball hitter), his power could take off at Coors Field. He has a clear path to starting at first base this season, so watch for McMahon's bat in the thin air.
Others: OF Raimel Tapia, RHP Jeff Hoffman, C Tom Murphy
Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Walker Buehler (Age 23-24)
MLB: 1-0, 7.71 ERA, 2.04 WHIP, 12/8 K/BB, 9.1 IP in 8 games
High A/AA/AAA: 3-3, 3.35 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 125/31 K/BB, 88.2 IP in 28 games (19 starts)
The Dodgers seemingly always have breakout guys who jump into the national conversation early on. Last year, it was Cody Bellinger. The year before, it was Corey Seager. Before that, you had guys like Yasiel Puig and Justin Turner turning into stars. This year, there are two main candidates to be the next guy, and I'm going to write up Walker Buehler over Alex Verdugo. Buehler was drafted in the first round, 24th overall, as part of a standout Vanderbilt class in 2015, following Dansby Swanson (1st) and Carson Fulmer (8th). However, it would be over a year before Buehler stepped foot on a minor league mound after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and he didn't really get his career going until 2017. However, he dominated High Class A in five starts (1.10 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 27/5 K/BB) and found himself in AA, where he continued to pitch well (3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 64/15 K/BB). He finally found a challenge with AAA Oklahoma City, putting up a respectable 4.63 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 34/11 strikeout to walk ratio in the hitter-friendly environment. Promoted to the majors for eight relief appearances, he was knocked around a bit (7.71 ERA, 2.04 WHIP), but he did strike out 27.3% of those he faced (12 in 9.1 innings). The Dodger rotation looks to consist of Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, Alex Wood, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Kenta Maeda, but if one gets injured (and with Hill and Ryu in there, one probably will), Buehler could be the first to hear his name called. If he can ring in his command just a little, his stuff is nasty enough (upper 90's fastball, plus curveball), he could give the Dodgers a third straight NL Rookie of the Year Award winner.
Others: OF Alex Verdugo, RHP Brock Stewart, RHP Dennis Santana
San Diego Padres: RHP Dinelson Lamet (Age 25-26)
MLB: 7-8, 4.57 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 139/54 K/BB, 114.1 IP in 21 starts
AAA: 3-2, 3.23 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 50/20 K/BB, 39 IP in 8 starts
Dinelson Lamet didn't make his minor league debut until he was 22, which is old for a Dominican prospect, but he rose quickly once he got on the professional mound. In full season ball by 2015, he jumped three levels in 2016 and began 2017 at AAA El Paso in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. However, nobody seemed to tell Lamet that the environment was supposed to be difficult, and after eight solid starts (3.23 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 50/20 K/BB), he was promoted to the majors. Making 21 starts for the Padres, he struggled a bit with command (11.1% walk rate), but hitters had a tough time connecting with his nasty stuff and he struck out 28.7% of those he faced, or 139 in 114.1 innings. Unfortunately, his walk rate did rise throughout the year, but if he can keep his stuff in check, it's nasty enough to make him a mid-rotation starter and to build on the 4.57 ERA from this year. The Padres are still rebuilding, so as long as he stays healthy, he should have no problem earning a spot in the rotation and could thrive.
Others: RHP Luis Perdomo, OF Hunter Renfroe, RHP Kaz Makita
San Francisco Giants: RHP Chris Stratton (Age 27)
MLB: 4-4, 3.68 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 51/28 K/BB, 58.2 IP in 13 games (10 starts)
AAA: 4-5, 5.11 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 71/22 K/BB, 79.1 IP in 15 starts
The Giants are doing their best to go worst to first this year, adding numerous bats including Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria. However, the pitching staff has remained mostly untouched, especially in the starting department, leaving two unproven guys to take the #4 and #5 spots. Chris Stratton, Tyler Beede, and Andrew Suarez are frontrunners, but Stratton has a particularly strong case and could be in for a big season. Picked 20th overall out of Mississippi State in 2012, he developed slowly didn't get his first extended look in the majors until 2017, his age-26 season. In it, he was successful, going 4-4 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP over 13 games (10 starts), but there is certainly room for improvement. His 10.9% walk rate was a bit high, but his walk rate trended down slightly as the season moved on. With a full season in pitcher-friendly San Francisco, Stratton could finally fulfill his mid-rotation potential.
Others: RHP Tyler Beede, LHP Andrew Suarez, 2B Miguel Gomez
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