2021 MLB Draft Review: San Francisco Giants

Full list of draftees

The Giants took nine straight pitchers to begin this draft, looking to balance out a system that right now is headlined mainly by hitters. They started it off with one of my favorite pitchers in the draft class, Will Bednar, then structured the majority of their draft around affording a massive over slot bonus for fourth rounder Eric Silva. Power was the theme here, as their first six picks top out at roughly 97, 98, 100, 97, 97, and 96, respectively, and they also weren't afraid of small conference arms like Fordham's Matt Mikulski, Lehigh's Mason Black, Yale's Rohan Handa, or Maine's Nick Sinacola. Bednar is my favorite pick here for a lot of reasons, but Handa is certainly the most interesting from a backstory perspective.
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1-14: RHP Will Bednar, Mississippi State. My rank: #11.
The Giants really started out on the right foot by grabbing Will Bednar, the 2021 College World Series MVP. The younger brother of Pirates reliever David Bednar, Will has been nearly untouchable during his two years in Starkville, posting a 2.93 ERA and a 162/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 107.2 innings. He finished it off with three great starts in the CWS, shutting down Texas, Texas again, and Vanderbilt to the tune of 18.1 innings, three runs, just five hits, and 26 strikeouts over the course of eleven days. Bednar has a full arsenal, but he really makes his money with two pitches, a plus fastball and slider. The fastball can touch 96-97 early in his starts before dipping down into the 91-94 range as the game goes on, and it plays up because he puts tremendous ride on the pitch that makes it nearly impossible to catch up to up in the zone. The slider has taken a huge step forward this year, coming in with serious late sweep that helped him rack up all those strikeouts. The Pittsburgh-area native also adds a curveball and changeup, and while they're not known far and wide throughout the SEC like his fastball and slider, they're effective pitches in their own right. His curveball flashes average with vertical break distinct from his slider, while the changeup, when located well, is a useful weapon against left handed hitters. Bednar's command is not pinpoint but he rarely gets himself into trouble over walks, doing a good job of elevating the pitches that need to be elevated and burying the ones that don't. On the to-do list for pro ball is getting better at hitting individual corners. The 6'2" righty doesn't offer much projection but he doesn't need it, with a durable build and a powerful but efficient delivery that should enable him to pitch near the top of a big league rotation. To top it all off, he's a fierce competitor that lives for high pressure games and never shies away from the lights. He signed for $3.65 million, which was roughly $390,000 below slot value, or in other words, fantastic value.

2-50: LHP Matt Mikulski, Fordham. My rank: #46.
Matt Mikulski was eligible for the draft last year, but ultimately his body of work against mediocre competition wasn't impressive enough to earn serious consideration in the five round event. He went back on the grind during the shutdown and emerged in 2021 a completely different picture, putting up video game numbers and thrusting himself into the second round. After holding a 3.98 ERA over his first three seasons, he posted a 1.45 ERA and a 124/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 68.1 innings, picking up double digit strikeouts in eight of his eleven starts and topping out with sixteen against St. Bonaventure on April 10th. Mikulski wasn't facing the toughest competition up in the Northeast, with eventual #4 seed NJIT (4 IP, 2 ER, 8 K) representing the only NCAA Tournament team, but they were all still Division I hitters and nobody could touch him. The New York native's fastball has ticked more consistently into the low to mid 90's and is now topping out around 98, while his slider flashes above average with sweep and his curveball can be a bit loopy but shows nice depth. He also adds an above average changeup with drop, and together the arsenal was simply too much for his opponents. The 6'4" lefty has smoothed out his delivery considerably and hides the ball well, but it still features some effort and his command likely doesn't project as any better than average. For that reason, plus the fact that he turned 22 in May, there is some reliever risk, but the Giants have been good about developing pitching lately and he has every chance to stick as a #3 or #4 starter. Mikulski signed for $1.2 million, which was roughly $270,000 below slot value.

3-85: RHP Mason Black, Lehigh. My rank: #92.
Returning to the small northeastern private school ranks, the Giants grabbed another power armed pitcher in Mason Black. Black stamped his name into the scouting spotlight in a big way in the Cape Cod League back in 2019, posting a 1.43 ERA and a 39/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 37.2 innings against elite, mostly older competition. However, he didn't perform as well against Lehigh's weaker Patriot League schedule, carrying a 4.09 ERA and a pedestrian 57/20 strikeout to walk ratio through his first two seasons. Those numbers improved this spring to 3.11 and 95/31 over 72.1 innings, but not quite enough to answer all of scouts' questions. That leaves us with a bit of an enigma that has split the scouting industry, but the Giants were clearly on the bullish side and I'd say I lean that way too. The 6'3" righty has a low to mid 90's fastball that has reached 100 in short stints, though it can get hit when he dips into that 92-94 range. His breaking ball can be slurvy at times, but when it's at its best, it's a plus pitch that can miss a ton of bats. He also adds a changeup that flashes average, but like his other pitches, can be inconsistent. The Scranton-area native is better at throwing strikes than hitting individual spots, and he's not quite as athletic as a guy like Will Bednar. Interestingly, Black is an extremely intelligent kid who studied bioengineering at Lehigh and wanted to go to medical school if baseball didn't work out. Those smarts between the ears, combined with the incredible arm strength necessary to hit triple digits with his fastball, should help him put it all together and pitch at his best with good instruction. I think the Giants could have a #3 starter or better on their hands in that case but it will take work. He signed right at slot value for $710,700.

4-115: RHP Eric Silva, JSerra Catholic HS. My rank: #142.
After saving roughly a combined $660,000 over their first three picks, the Giants spent it here on a West Coast prep arm. Eric Silva is an interesting arm because he doesn't quite fall into any clear category. He's a power arm, but he's not quite overpowering yet, and he also shows good feel for pitching, but isn't a command artist. Some would see that profile and label him a tweener/long relief option, while others such as the Giants see an opportunity to put everything together and build a mid-rotation starter. The Orange County native sits in the low 90's with his fastball, reportedly reaching back for as much as 97 this spring but also dipping closer to 90 as the season wore on. He throws a distinct upper 70's slider and mid 70's curveball with great shape and finish, though both pitches need to add power to be true bat missing weapons. Given his fastball velocity, it's not hard to envision him doing so in the Giants' development system. He also throws a changeup that can be inconsistent but flashes nice fade. The 6'1" righty has a durable look and while there are some moving parts in his delivery such as a wide leg kick, he repeats it well for the most part and is generally around the strike zone. A couple of tweaks should get him to at least average command. Silva was one of the few high-end UCLA commits to sign, earning the Giants' second largest bonus at $1.5 million, roughly a million dollars above slot value. 

5-146: LHP Rohan Handa, Yale. Unranked.
Here's a cinderella story if there ever was one. The son of Indian immigrants, Rohan Handa stepped onto campus at Yale nowhere in the vicinity of a being pro prospect. He spent two years in the Bulldogs bullpen to uninspiring results, posting a 5.97 ERA and a 19/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.1 innings and failing to stand out even on a pitching staff that wasn't exactly a scouting destination anyways. His shutdown ended up being longer than most, as the Ivy League cancelled their spring sports so as to keep healthy, young, set-to-be-vaccinated athletes from appearing on the same outdoor field, and boy did he take advantage of it. When Handa appeared back on the mound late in workouts and in the NECL this spring, he was a completely different pitcher. The fastball now sits in the low to mid 90's and has touched 97, while he flashes a plus slider with late break that still could use to get more consistent. The 6'3" lefty also throws a changeup, but it's his third pitch and remains unproven. Handa has a high effort delivery and doesn't always provide consistent strikes, which likely points to a career in the bullpen given his lack of a reliable changeup, but the man is trending straight upwards and who is to say he doesn't continue to improve in the Giants' development system? The Charlotte-area native, like third rounder Mason Black, is an extremely intelligent kid (obviously, he's at Yale) and heavily involved in philanthropy already. He signed for $347,500, which was $24,100 below slot value.

6-176: LHP Seth Lonsway, Ohio State. My rank: #144.
In stark contrast to Rohan Handa, Seth Lonsway has been on the scouting radar for a long time. He had Midwest area scouts making regular trips to western Ohio to see him pitch as a high schooler back in 2017, but ultimately priced himself out and ended up at Ohio State. After redshirting his freshman season in 2018, he showed some of the loudest stuff in the Big Ten over the next two seasons and had a chance to go in the top three rounds in 2020, but again opted to head back for a fourth year. Unfortunately, the same questions that held him back from 2019-2020 were present in 2021, and he fell to the sixth round after posting a 4.37 ERA and a 98/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 innings. The stuff is still loud for sure. The 6'3" lefty pummels hitters with a low to mid 90's fastball that regularly gets up to 95-96, exploding out of his hand and showing great ride from his overhand delivery. Lonsway also throws an absolute hammer of a curveball and misses bats with a plus slider as well, while his changeup is more of a fourth pitch. The drawback has been command, as he walked 14.2% of his opponents in 2019, 21.7% in the shortened 2020 season, and then 14.5% this year. He regularly loses his release point and at this point you have to figure he simply does not have any feel to spot his pitches. Set to turn 23 in October, hope for Lonsway to stick in the rotation is receding fast and at this point, he's probably better off just going straight to the bullpen and seeing what happens. There, he won't have to focus so much on location and can instead just grip it, rip it, and see what happens, with the end result likely being simply overpowering stuff even at the major league level. You can see the Celina, Ohio native giving fans a heart attack with a propensity to get himself into trouble, then working out of it by striking out the side. He signed for $300,000, which was $18,200 above slot value.

7-206: RHP Nick Sinacola, Maine. Unranked.
Going back to a small conference northeastern school yet again, the Giants grabbed another one of the best pitchers in the region in Nick Sinacola. Like Matt Mikulski, he was untouchable this spring, posting a 2.04 ERA and a 139/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.1 innings, and also like Mikulski, NJIT was the only tournament-bound team that he faced (5 IP, 2 ER, 10 K). Sinacola is far from overpowering, sitting around 90 with his fastball and only topping out around 92-93, but that's not his money pitch anyways. The 6'1" righty mainly pitches off his sweepy slider, which again doesn't have a ton of power around 80 but still misses bats because he rarely misses his spot with it. He also flips in an average splitter. Everything Sinacola throws plays up because he repeats his delivery well and shows above average command, and that was enough to completely keep northeastern mid major bats off balance. In pro ball, however, he might not be able to sneak that slider by as many bats, and the bullpen might be a better spot for him. There, the southern Massachusetts native could see both his fastball and slider tick up a bit in velocity, which with his command would be hugely beneficial. He signed for $197,500, which was $23,700 below slot value.

8-236: RHP Ian Villers, California. Unranked.
Ian Villers is a hometown pick, having attended Northgate High School across the Bay in Walnut Creek before going on to spend three years at Cal. He struggled with command and ran a 20/19 strikeout to walk ratio over his first two seasons, but emerged as a valuable swingman this year with a 2.84 ERA and a 36/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 innings. Villers has plenty of arm strength and can reach back for 96-97 when he wants it, but he's more comfortable down in the low 90's where he's been able to take that step forward with his command. Like Nick Sinacola, he often pitches off his slider, which flashes above average and comes in with more power than his seventh round counterpart. The big 6'6" righty also mixes in a curveball, changeup, splitter, and cutter, which all have their moments but remain behind the fastball/slider. He repeats his delivery well and has done a better job of filling up the strike zone, though I'm not huge on college relievers and he won't get the luxury of seeing his stuff jump when he moves from the rotation to the bullpen since he's already there, but playing into Villers' favor is the fact that he's extremely young for the class and doesn't turn 21 until September. There is the chance that the Giants could try to work him back into the rotation, where he does have the size, arm strength, command, and arsenal to profile as a #4 or #5 guy. The age certainly doesn't hurt that. Villers signed for $217,500, which was $41,200 above slot value.

9-266: RHP Mat Olsen, Central Arizona JC. Unranked.
With Matt Olson hitting home runs across the Bay, I guess the Giants wanted in on the action and drafted their own Mat Olsen, though this one is a pitcher. Hailing from the small town of Florence between Phoenix and Tucson, he stayed close to home at Central Arizona JC and has been exceptional over the last two seasons, combining for a 2.09 ERA and a 194/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 innings. Olsen shows a low 90's fastball that has been popping the mid 90's more and more often, getting up to 96 this year, and he throws a solid-average curveball with conviction that helps him rack up the strikeouts. He adds in a slider and changeup but mainly pitches off the fastball and curveball, with his four pitch mix giving him a chance to start at the next level. Though he has a relatively high effort delivery, the 5'11" righty can still pour in strikes as he goes right after hitters and understands the art of pitching. Area scouts love him for that, and if he's forced to the bullpen regardless, he has the competitive mentality you look for in a reliever. He's also young, having just turned 21 three days before the draft. Rather than fulfill an Arizona State commitment, Olsen signed for $147,500, which was $7,800 below slot.

2021 MLB Draft: Ten Options for the Nationals at pick #11 (final update)

The draft is almost here, so I'll be updating this story one more time. The Nationals pick at #11 and have been almost exclusively tied to arms, so that will be the focus here, but I do see three to four bats that could make sense if the Nationals want to buck some trends (and make me happy). 

First, I'll give my opinion on who I think the Nationals should draft. There are six players who I would give virtually no chance of reaching the Nationals, and those are high school shortstops Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, Brady House, and Kahlil Watson, in addition to Vanderbilt righthander Jack Leiter and Louisville catcher Henry Davis. If one of those falls to #11, the Nationals should 100% snatch one up if the signing bonus is remotely reasonable. There's also Vanderbilt ace Kumar Rocker, who is very unlikely to be available at #11, but he seems to have at least a sliver of a chance of getting down there and I absolutely don't see the Nationals passing him up if he's available. I'd go for it in that case as well. Jackson Jobe seems to be in the same boat, but prep righthanders tend to slide in the draft and if he's available with a remotely reasonable signing bonus, again I think the Nationals should pounce. In the event that all eight are gone, which is likely, there are two college bats I think the Nationals should focus on. I'd take Boston College outfielder Sal Frelick out of the remaining players, and if he's gone along with the other eight, I'd go with UCLA shortstop Matt McLain. Then in the unlikely scenario that those are the top ten picks, I'm a bit lost because I think there's a slight break in the quality of players, so I would either pick Will Bednar or just grab Gunnar Hoglund, sign him below slot, then overspend at pick #47. Below is what would be my board if I were the Nationals picking at #11, not what I think their board is, color coded by how likely they are to be available. Red is definitely not, orange is probably not, yellow is 50-50, and green is most likely.

Marcelo Mayer, Jack Leiter, Henry Davis, Brady House, Kahlil Watson, Kumar Rocker, Jackson Jobe, Sal Frelick, Matt McLain, Will Bednar, Gunnar Hoglund

Without further introduction, here are the ten players I think the Nationals are most likely to end up with at #11, ordered by likelihood. I'm not a reporter, so these are more just guesses than anything else. Slot value is just over $4.54 million and the Nationals' overall bonus pool for their top ten rounds is $8.77 million.

1. RHP Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS, OK
As I said in the previous paragraph, I don't think Jackson Jobe will make it out of the top ten, as he's getting interest as high as #3 to the Tigers. However, in the event that he does, I can absolutely see Mike Rizzo smashing Jobe's name into the keyboard or doing whatever he does to make his picks with extra zeal. The Oklahoma City product is relatively new to pitching, but his name has been rocketing up boards ever since his dominant summer a year ago. His fastball is now sitting comfortably in the low to mid 90's and has touched 98, but that's not his main weapon. Jobe's slider is arguably the best breaking ball in the entire high school class, coming in with absurd spin rates that cause it to shoot down and away from righties or into lefties at the last second. That feel for spin translates to his curveball, which is a distinct and above average pitch in its own right, and he possesses one of the better changeups in the high school class as well. Together with a clean delivery and notable athleticism, he consistently deals strikes and really has all the ingredients to be an impact starting pitcher. Aside from his demographic, that of an inherently risky high school righthander, Jobe only has one thing working against him – age. He'll turn 19 a few weeks after the draft, making him one of the older players in the class, but everything else is so good that that should not be a factor. He'll likely demand an enormous signing bonus, probably the highest on this list of ten, to keep from attending Mississippi, where he'll be draft-eligible as a sophomore in 2023.

2. RHP Ty Madden, Texas
2021 stats: 7-5, 2.45 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 137/44 K/BB in 113.2 IP.
While he is getting some looks in the back of the top ten and could end up in Colorado at #8 or Los Angeles at #9, there is a very good shot that Ty Madden is available for the Nationals at #11. The unquestioned ace of the most complete pitching staff in the country (sorry, Vanderbilt), Madden is everything the Nationals love – a big, durable, consistent performer who has the look of a mid-rotation starter. He combines arm strength with pitchability, creating the type of pitcher that does not grow on trees. Madden's fastball comes in with low to mid 90's velocity, getting up to 99 at times early in games, and he adds a potentially plus slider that plays very well off his fastball. His changeup can be a bit inconsistent, but when it's on, it gives him a third potentially above average pitch, which will help him pitch deep into games. He commands all three pitches very well, pounding the bottom of the strike zone and missing bats in bunches. If there's anything to nitpick with the Houston-area native, it's something called his VAA, or vertical approach angle. Because the 6'3" righty comes from such a high release point, everything he throws has significant downward plane, which plays very well around hitters knees and below. However, he has gotten hit harder when he leaves pitches up, and in today's launch angle-conscious game that has more hitters going for high VBA's – vertical barrel angles, – it will be especially difficult for him to be effective in that part of the zone in pro ball. Fortunately, his command means that he won't miss his spots often, and his velocity gives him some margin for error.

3. RHP Sam Bachman, Miami [OH]
2021 stats: 4-4, 1.81 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 93/17 K/BB in 59.2 IP.
Sam Bachman's draft outlook is probably about the same as Madden's with some teams interested in the back of the top ten but a good chance of reaching #11. If both he and Madden are available for the Nationals, it will be an interesting decision for Rizzo, as both pitchers seem to fit his models but for very different reasons. While Madden is durable and consistent, Bachman is more of a power arm that comes with significant durability questions, but we know Rizzo has never been one to shy away from injured or potentially-injury prone arms. Bachman's raw stuff is elite, perhaps the best in the entire class outside of the Vanderbilt duo of Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker. The 6'1" righty deals regularly in the mid 90's with his fastball and has touched as high as 101, but it's not just the velocity that makes it a special pitch. He also comes from an extremely low release point while still maintaining a three quarters arm slot, putting tremendous ride on the pitch that makes it play exceptionally well up in the zone. And with his velocity, even when he misses over the plate, it's tough to square up. Bachman also adds a plus slider that breaks late and tight, playing well off the fastball. As with Madden, his changeup has been a bit less consistent, but it too flashes above average and like Madden, he could have three plus pitches at the major league level. While he doesn't quite parallel the Longhorn ace in the command arena, his ability to hit his spots is trending upwards and he fills up the strike zone very consistently, setting himself apart from other data-friendly power arms. The drawback here is durability, as the Indianapolis-area native throws with considerable effort and some evaluators don't like his arm action. Additionally, he missed a few weeks this spring with arm soreness and I don't think he ever threw 100 pitches in a game, so he comes with considerable relief risk even if the pure stuff and command fit in the rotation. Personally, I'd pull the trigger on Bachman before Madden, but I'm not sure about Rizzo.

4. SS Matt McLain, UCLA
2021 stats: 9 HR, .333/.434/.579, 9 SB, 34/34 K/BB in 47 games.
Jackson Jobe, Ty Madden, and Sam Bachman seem like the clear frontrunners to me, so after those three this list definitely becomes guesswork. If the Nationals were to pass on an arm and pick up a bat, UCLA shortstop Matt McLain seems like the most likely bet to me. He was extremely well regarded coming out of his Los Angeles-area high school, but surprisingly turned down the Diamondbacks after being drafted 25th overall in 2018. His time at UCLA has been up and down, but there have been more ups and than downs and he was on a tear before going down with a broken thumb in May, then picked up where he left off in a brief return. Though he's just 5'11" and skinny at that, he has always possessed great feel to hit and has learned to drive the ball more and more consistently throughout his time in Los Angeles, now projecting for at least average power. He also tightened up the strike zone in 2021, aiding projections for a plus hit tool, and his plus speed enables him to be a factor on the basepaths. The jury is still out on whether he can stick at shortstop long term, as he has the athleticism to profile there but his feel for the spot has been inconsistent. Either way, he profiles as a plus defender at second base, so you're getting significant value on the defensive side to go along with his top-of-the-lineup offensive upside. Personally, I'd prefer McLain over both Madden and Bachman.

5. RHP Will Bednar, Mississippi State
2021 stats: 9-1, 3.12 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 139/26 K/BB in 92.1 IP.
When I first started working on this list, I didn't include Will Bednar, despite the fact that I personally would have considered him at #11 if I were picking. However, after dominating at the College World Series and allowing no hits in the final game, he seems to be much more of a realistic target for Mike Rizzo and co. Bednar has been trending straight up since he landed in Starkville with a 2.93 ERA and a 37% strikeout rate (162 in 107.2 innings) against top competition, and he can attack hitters in a lot of ways. His main weapon is a low to mid 90's fastball that can hit 96-97 early in games but usually settles into the 91-94 range, playing up because it has tremendous riding life that plays extremely well up in the zone. He adds a plus slider with extreme horizontal sweep, then can go to an average curve and changeup that he uses significantly less often. While the Pittsburgh-area native doesn't have pinpoint command, he generally fills up the strike zone and has gotten better at locating his pitches to all four quadrants even as his stuff has leapt forward. He has a durable 6'2" frame and looks the part of a #2 starter.

6. OF Sal Frelick, Boston College
2021 stats: 6 HR, .359/.443/.559, 13 SB, 28/27 K/BB in 48 games.
Sal Frelick's draft stock is in a similar place to McLain's, if perhaps a tick better, and I would prefer Frelick if both he and McLain were available. In fact, among the players with any significant chance to reach the Nationals at pick #11, Frelick is the one I want. He elevated his profile this year by coming out of the gate hot when most other first round bats stumbled, and he maintained the hot hitting to finish the season hitting .359/.443/.559 with just a 12.3% strikeout rate. Undersized at 5'9", he's an elite athlete that plays with a ton of energy, giving him the ability to impact the game in numerous ways. He makes a ton of contact with plus bat to ball skills and excellent adjustability in his left handed swing that helps him find the barrel even against tough pitches, and when he gets one over the plate, he has enough power to make you pay. The Boston-area native is a plus runner that will gladly steal a base or two and will stick in center field, though some have toyed with trying him at second base. Personally, I'd just leave him at center and let him run wild. If the Nationals drafted him, he would immediately become the most dynamic player in their system.

7. RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi
2021 stats: 4-2, 2.87 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 96/17 K/BB in 62.2 IP.
#11 overall might be a bit early to nab a pitcher fresh off spring Tommy John surgery, but Mike Rizzo has never shied away from injured pitchers early in the draft and depending on who's available here, I wouldn't mind the pick either. Aside from a healthy right arm, Gunnar Hoglund has everything you look for in a starting pitching prospect – velocity, two offspeed pitches, command, a clean delivery, consistent performance, and an upward trajectory. His fastball previously sat effortlessly around 90, but the 6'4" righty added some juice in 2021 and ticked up to about 92-94, touching as high as 97 early in games. After mostly pitching off his fastball early in his career, he began to lean more on an improved slider in 2021 that touched the upper 80's, getting consistently above average grades. And as the season moved on, he began incorporating a surprisingly good changeup more and more, giving him three above average pitches to work with. On top of all of that, he has regularly been noted as having some of the best command in the class, easily locating all of his pitches where he wants them. There are no weaknesses in this profile and given that Tommy John is becoming more and more of a regularity, the Tampa-area native could present Rizzo with a really interesting discount option. From there, Mike can overspend at pick #47, perhaps on a high school arm like Frank Mozzicato, Ben Kudrna, or Maddux Bruns, though I would personally prefer Mozzicato or Kudrna to Bruns (and I'd prefer a high school bat over all three of them, though I doubt Rizzo would go that route).

8. OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State
2021 stats: 16 HR, .374/.490/.680, 17 SB, 32/42 K/BB in 55 games.
Fun fact, Colton Cowser was actually teammates with Ty Madden at Cypress Ranch High School in the Houston suburbs, and they were actually the third and fourth best prospects on that team at the time behind 2019 draftees JJ Goss (Rays, 36th overall) and Matthew Thompson (White Sox, 45th overall). He's been on a tear since late March, once homering four times in two games and another time going deep in five consecutive games, all while pushing his on-base percentage close to .500. Evaluators have long been waiting for him to grow into his 6'3" frame and start tapping his power, and he showed this year he has a chance to be average in that regard. Cowser is also an excellent contact hitter who consistently puts together professional at bats, showing that with significantly more walks (42) than strikeouts (32) in 2021. Though he wasn't facing the toughest competition in the Southland Conference, he did perform well with the US Collegiate National Team back in 2019, so evaluators are very comfortable with his offensive profile. He's also an above average runner who can swipe a base and be a net-positive in the outfield, where he projects as a fringy centerfielder or an above average corner guy. Cowser profiles as a potential leadoff guy who can hit 15-20 home runs per season for the Nationals down the line.

9. RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt
2021 stats: 14-4, 2.73 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 179/39 K/BB in 122 IP.
I think it's highly unlikely Kumar Rocker makes it all the way to the Nationals. There has been some talk of him going as high as fifth overall to the Orioles, while the Diamondbacks at #6 and the Royals at #7 have shown interest as well. But if the chips fall that way and Rocker gets out of the top ten, I absolutely do not see Mike Rizzo letting him go any further. At this point, we all know the book on Kumar. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's deep into games, with his extension making the pitch play up. Rocker's slider is one of the best pitches in college baseball when he's commanding it, making even advanced hitters look like absolute fools. He throws a cutter that has a chance to be an above average pitch and while he has shown a changeup in the past, he didn't use it much in 2021 and it wasn't particularly effective when he broke it out late in the season. Rocker has also been noted as a control-over-command pitcher throughout his career, one who has no trouble filling up the strike zone or eliciting chases but who struggles to hit spots within the zone. Regardless, his exceptional track record in the SEC and strong makeup that enables him to step up when the lights shine the brightest will not be lost on scouting directors come draft day, and the stuff is so good that he can afford merely average command in pro ball and still succeed. If the command steps up from 50 to 55, he'll be an ace.

10. RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS, FL
Eleventh overall feels a touch too early to grab Andrew Painter, but Mike Rizzo loves himself a high school pitcher and if Jackson Jobe is off the board, he could come into consideration. Painter entered the spring as the top pitching prospect in the high school class, but a combination of a loud spring from Jobe and a slow start for Painter changed that. He turned it around as the season went on, helping most traditional evaluators feel comfortable that he is still the second best. Painter is a huge, 6'6" righthander that combines physical projection with present stuff and pitchability. His fastball gets up to 95-96 without much effort, and he holds the low 90's deep into games. The South Florida product adds a pair of distinct, above average breaking balls, while his changeup is more advanced than that of most high school pitchers. He commands everything well, giving him an extremely well-rounded profile at a young age that reminds some of Mick Abel a year ago, albeit with less glowing numbers on the analytic side. The reason Painter might belong closer to the back of the first round is just that, the analytics, as some see a more traditional arsenal that doesn't stand out in today's game of high spin rates. Personally, I see Gage Jump and Chase Petty as the second and third best high school pitchers in the class, but my guess is the Nationals have Painter as #2 behind Jobe. He'll likely be an expensive sign with a Florida commitment, but at #11, I don't see him going above slot value.

Potential Second Round Targets

I mentioned a few times that the Nationals might elect to save some money early on with a pick like Gunnar Hoglund or Gavin Williams, or perhaps even on any number of other players on this list not named Jobe or Rocker (albeit less), and that would enable them to go after an expensive high schooler in the second round at pick #47. Knowing the Nationals, that would likely be a high school pitcher. Some options there:

LHP Frank Mozzicato, East Catholic HS, CT
Mozzicato has been flying up boards late in the spring once the Connecticut high school season finally got started, absolutely dominating his Hartford-area competition with a low 90's fastball and one of the best curveballs in the high school class. He's young for the class and has projection remaining in his 6'3" frame, but that projection is important considering he only tops out at 93 as of now. He's a UConn recruit.

RHP Ben Kudrna, Blue Valley Southwest HS, KS
Kudrna hasn't burst onto the scene quite like Mozzicato, but he's been quietly sliding up boards for a long time now. His fastball has ticked up into the mid 90's and he fills up the strike zone with an above average slider and changeup, all from a clean, repeatable delivery. The Kansas City-area product doesn't quite have the bat-missing stuff to project as an ace, but he has a higher floor than most high school pitchers. He's committed to LSU.

LHP Maddux Bruns, UMS-Wright Prep HS, AL
Named after Greg Maddux, this 6'2" lefty has a bit of a different profile. The Mobile native has huge raw stuff, led by a fastball that has reportedly touches the upper 90's, as well as a plus curveball and an above average slider. It's power, power, power, but at this point he has extremely inconsistent command that can be anywhere from average to non-playable. Bruns is one day shy of a full year older than Mozzicato, so he's already 19 and will be draft-eligible after two years at Mississippi State if he gets there. I would prefer both Mozzicato and Kudrna heavily to Bruns.

This is an extremely deep class of high school bats, so there will undoubtedly be numerous available at #47 that really shouldn't be there. They'll be very expensive at this point and will require an above-slot bonus, but if the Nationals save money at pick #11, they should be able to get one. I think it's much more likely they go for a pitcher, but I would really like one of the bats.

SS Max Muncy, Thousand Oaks HS, CA
No, not that Max Muncy. This Muncy (no relation) really stands out for his feel for the game, and even if he's not the most athletic player in the class, he understands his body and maximizes the production he gets out of his 6'1" frame. He has a chance to be a very well-rounded player who could improve quickly with pro coaching and conditioning. He's committed to Arkansas.

3B Wes Kath, Desert Mountain HS, AZ
Kath has been trending up this spring as one of the most well-rounded bats in the West. He combines a strong feel to hit with impressive raw power in his sturdy, 6'3" frame, giving him the chance for both high on-base percentages and high slugging percentages. He has the arm for third base and may be able to stick there. Kath is an Arizona State commit.

SS James Triantos, James Madison HS, VA
Okay, pick #47 might be just a little bit rich for James Triantos, but we have to include the local kid. Oh yeah, and he plays at my alma mater and I used to take batting practice in his backyard, so while I haven't seen him hit since he was in middle school, I'm following this one pretty closely. Triantos has absolutely ripped the cover off the ball this spring, helping lead Madison High School in Vienna to its first state championship since 2015, a team which I was on. He produces great leverage through the zone that gives him power to all fields, and he simply hasn't swung and missed this spring, either. He's probably a third baseman long term and while he's a UNC commit, signability likely won't be an issue this early.

2021 MLB Draft: A Hometown Pick for Every AL/NL Central Team

I'm personally just as interested in maps as I am in the MLB Draft, so naturally I really like it when players go to their hometown team. Seeing Ryan Zimmerman (Virginia Beach, VA) on the Nationals, Justin Turner (Lakewood, CA) on the Dodgers, Joe Musgrove (La Mesa, CA) on the Padres, etc. makes me happy. Last year, the Cubs drafted Chicago native Ed Howard in the first round, which I thought was really cool. Obviously, picking the hometown guy usually plays a negligible part in the selection process, but it's still fun to think about. So, if teams were drafting to make me happy, what hometown players could they target early in the draft? Note, I'll usually think in terms of the first pick if possible, but if necessary I'll find targets for the second or third pick (especially in the "other options" section). This is the second of three articles, as I previously wrote on the AL and NL East. Note this is NOT a mock draft – it's just for fun and I don't actually think many of these will happen. They're just fun to think about. AL/NL West article here.

Chicago Cubs/White Sox
Hitter: SS Branden Comia, Illinois (hometown: Orland Park, IL)
I'm going to do the same thing here that I did with the Mets and Yankees, just combining the Cubs and White Sox and picking a hitter and a pitcher. Despite its size, Chicago doesn't bring quite as much baseball talent to the table as warmer places like Atlanta, Houston, or Los Angeles, but it's usually good for a couple names every year. This year, Day One likely won't yield any Chicagoland natives, especially not any bats, so I dug a little deeper to find Illini shortstop Branden Comia. A graduate of Carl Sandburg High School in Orland Park, about twenty miles southwest of downtown, Comia hit just .255/.322/.370 as a freshman but has caught fire ever since. He burst onto the scene with a .426/.526/.702 line over 13 games in the shortened 2020 season, and his 2021 has been nearly as hot. A bit undersized at 5'10", he shows great feel for the barrel from the right side and has tapped some moderate power in Urbana-Champaign, and he does a very good job of limiting his strikeouts. The power will likely never be more than fringe-average, as his swing is geared towards line drives and he hasn't hit well with wood bats. Comia will stick in the middle infield, either at shortstop or second base, and has a utility projection. He probably doesn't make sense for the Cubs or White Sox in the first two to three rounds, but once we get into triple digits on the overall board, one of them might like his consistent profile.
Other options: C Ian Moller (Wahlert Catholic HS, Dubuque, IA), OF Levi Usher (Louisville via Fairfax, IA), 1B Niko Kavadas (Notre Dame via Granger, IN), 3B Alex Binelas (Louisville via Oak Creek, WI), OF Zaid Walker (Michigan State via Homewood, IL)
Pitcher: RHP McCade Brown, Indiana (hometown: Normal, IL)
We'll move a little outside of Chicagoland to get to a really interesting pitcher. McCade Brown went to Normal West High School in Normal, Illinois, just over one hundred miles southwest of Chicago and home of Illinois State University. To call his first two years at Indiana unremarkable would actually be a compliment; in 6.2 innings, he allowed eleven earned runs (14.85 ERA) and walked thirteen batters (31% of those he faced). However, something clicked for the 6'6" righty over the summer and by fall practice, he was a completely transformed pitcher. Brown came out absolutely dealing to start the season, shutting down Rutgers and Penn State for one run over fourteen innings, allowing just three hits, two walks, and two hit batsmen along the way and striking out 28. He's come back down to Earth a bit since then, but we still have a heck of a prospect on our hands. At his best, Brown can touch 96 with his fastball and drop in an absolute hammer curveball, backed up by a distinct slider with late break as well. However, over extended innings, his stuff has flattened out just a little bit and the command has backed up a hair as well, so both the Cubs (pick #21) and White Sox (pick #22) might be a little bit of a stretch in the first round at this point unless he regains that early season form. If he's still on the board when they pick again at #56 and #57, respectively, both could be very interested.
Other options: RHP Glenn Albanese (Louisville via Batavia, IL), RHP J.P. Massey (Minnesota via Chicago, IL), RHP Jack Perkins (Louisville via Kokomo, IN), RHP Johnny Ray (Texas Christian via Quincy, IL), RHP Luke Smith (Louisville via Champaign, IL)

Cincinnati Reds: OF Daylen Lile, Trinity HS, Louisville, KY
I was torn between Daylen Lile and Ohio State ace Seth Lonsway, but despite Lonsway being a Buckeye State lifer who grew up in Celina, I went with Lile because a) I think he has a better chance of landing in Cincinnati than Lonsway and b) I've written about Lonsway a lot over the years since he was on draft radars in both 2017 and 2020, so I think it's time we give the new kid a shot. Lile is a really interesting bat out of Louisville who is committed to stay in town and play for the Cardinals should he push pro ball down the road, but he's trending up and might not end up at school. Nobody doubts his pure hit tool, as he brings an extremely professional approach at the plate that he combines with a smooth, leveraged left handed swing to find the barrel consistently. Up until this spring, there were some minor concerns over his power output, as he lacked the pure strength to really maximize his skill set, but he's come out swinging a hot bat lately and has been turning on more baseballs. If he can continue to add muscle to his 6'1" frame, he has a chance to be an extremely well-rounded hitter. The defense is a bit of a question mark, as he is fringy in center field and doesn't quite have the arm for right field. Because there's a chance he ends up in left field, teams will really need to bank on that strength continuing to manifest, which is why his hot 2021 has been very good for his stock. Lile will not be in play for the Reds' first round pick at #17, but they have a couple of comp picks at #30 and #35, then their second round pick comes in at #53. He could make sense at either of those comp picks, or if bonus demands push him down, the Reds should have space to sign him above slot at #53.
Other options: LHP Seth Lonsway (Ohio State via Celina, OH), RHP Sam Bachman (Miami of OH via Fishers, IN), SS Luke Waddell (Georgia Tech via Loveland, OH), OF Colson Montgomery (Southridge HS, Huntingburg, IN), SS Trey Sweeney (Eastern Illinois via Louisville, KY)

Cleveland Indians: LHP Evan Shawver, Cincinnati (hometown: Amherst, OH)
Northern Ohio can be hit or miss in terms of producing baseball talent, last year giving us Massillon natives Dillon Dingler (Ohio State) and Kyle Nicolas (Ball State), and this year we have one Day One prospect in Cincinnati lefty Evan Shawver. A product of Steele High School in Amherst, on the western edge of the Cleveland suburbs, Shawver transformed himself as a pitcher between his freshman and sophomore years. The undersized lefty greatly improved his command while seeing his stuff tick up as well, bumping into the low 90's with his fastball and topping out as high as 97. His slider flashes plus with late diving action and his changeup is an above average pitch as well, and the entire package put him in the top tier of college lefties according to some evaluators. However, he's barely pitched lately and I can't find information as to why, which has knocked him into the second tier. Depending on why he's missed time, durability questions could start to creep up given his size. He won't be in play at pick #23 but depending how he returns, he could be at #58, #69, or #95.
Other options: LHP Seth Lonsway (Ohio State via Celina, OH), LHP Michael Kirian (Louisville via New Riegel, OH), RHP Ryan Bergert (West Virginia via Canton, OH), LHP Jackson Wolf (West Virginia via Gahanna, OH), LHP Drake Batcho (Cincinnati via Warren, OH)

Detroit Tigers: SS Alex Mooney, Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS, West Bloomfield, MI
Prep middle infielders seem to have an interesting tendency to get drafted higher than the national rankings say. It seems like every year, the national rankings will have one of these kids in the second round that at least a few teams like at the back of the first, such as Matt McLain in 2018, Anthony Volpe in 2019, and Nick Yorke and Carson Tucker in 2020. There are a few more names like that in 2021, and if the Tigers want to go that route, one is from Michigan. Alex Mooney stands out for his feel for the game over his tools, in a somewhat similar vein to Jordan Lawlar at the top of the draft (who could be an option for the Tigers at pick #3). Mooney isn't as athletic as Lawlar, but he's simply a gamer who makes things happen on the field. He has a quick swing from the right side and puts some nice lift on the ball, maximizing his impact by choosing good pitches to swing at and doing damage. The Rochester Hills native definitely has the feel for shortstop, but a superior defender may be able to push him to third base. Also like Lawlar, Mooney is old for the class and will be 19 on draft day, which works against him for many teams, and he'll be eligible again in 2023 after two seasons at Duke if he chooses that route.
Other options: SS/RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (Nebraska via Saginaw, MI), 3B Luke Leto (Portage Central HS, Portage, MI), RHP Mason Erla (Michigan State via Cass City, MI), 1B Niko Kavadas (Notre Dame via Granger, IN), LHP Michael Kirian (Louisville via New Riegel, OH)

Kansas City Royals: RHP Ben Kudrna, Blue Valley Southwest HS, Overland Park, KS
I was tempted to go with KC native and Arkansas star Christian Franklin here, but pick #7 might be just a little rich for him given his slight strikeout concerns. We'll go with Ben Kudrna, an interesting high school pitcher out of Blue Valley Southwest High School at the southern edge of the KC suburbs, since the Royals tend to like these types of arms and he makes a lot of sense at pick #43. Kudrna's velocity has been ticking up little by little over the last few years, and this spring he's been sitting in the mid 90's more often and touching 97-98. He adds an above average slider and changeup to make for a very well-rounded arsenal, and on top of all that, he fills up the strike zone with a repeatable delivery that should enable him to remain a starter over the long run. There's a really nice combination of ceiling and floor here for a high school arm, and Kudrna isn't too dissimilar to Ben Hernandez, the Royals' 41st overall pick last year who was older for his class and didn't quite have Kudrna's breaking ball.
Other options: OF Christian Franklin (Arkansas via Overland Park, KS), C Carter Jensen (Park Hill HS, Kansas City, MO), LHP Jordan Wicks (Kansas State via Conway, AR), RHP Brannon Jordan (South Carolina via Collinsville, OK), RHP Cole Larsen (Kansas via Jamestown, KS)

Milwaukee Brewers: 3B Alex Binelas, Louisville (hometown: Oak Creek, WI)
It's really hard to pin down Alex Binelas' draft stock right now. He entered the season a potential top ten pick, but picked up just two hits in his first eight games, spanning 31 at bats, and even then continued on a cold stretch. However, he righted the ship towards the end of March and has been on a tear ever since, and in a crop of college bats that has really disappointed so far, he's starting to stand out once again. The Brewers pick at #15, which at this point is too rich for the slugging infielder, but if he continues to hit this way, he could make more and more sense. Milwaukee picks again at #33, which could also be a fit if Binelas cools off just a little bit. He's proven to be one of the streakiest hitters in the draft, so anything is really possible. The Oak Creek native has tremendous raw power from the left side, the product of a lightning quick barrel and plenty of strength in his 6'3" frame. He goes through stretches where he's tapping that power virtually every game, and at those times he looks like a top ten pick, but also can start to swing through pitches at other times, especially soft stuff. Defensively, he shows a strong arm at third base but his mobility there has become increasingly questionable, especially after Lucas Dunn forced him over to first base. Binelas could also make sense in at a corner outfield spot.
Other options: SS Noah Miller (Ozaukee HS, Fredonia, WI), C Ian Moller (Wahlert Catholic HS, Dubuque, IA), RHP Tanner Kohlhepp (Notre Dame via Eau Claire, WI), RHP Glenn Albanese (Louisville via Batavia, IL), OF Levi Usher (Louisville via Fairfax, IA)

Minnesota Twins: C Ian Moller, Wahlert Catholic HS, Dubuque, IA
Sometimes it can be tough to find Day One prospects from the Twin Cities, though last year we did get third overall pick and Woodbury native Max Meyer out of Minnesota. This year, nobody stands out from the Gopher State, so I headed south of the border into Iowa to grab Dubuque star Ian Moller. It makes sense, because the Twins are no stranger to catchers in the early rounds and plucked Ben Rortvedt out of a Wisconsin high school in the second round in 2016 as well as UNC Wilmington's Ryan Jeffers in the second round in 2018. Moller probably won't be in play at pick #26 in the first round, though the Twins' pick at #36 might represent his draft ceiling and an over slot deal at #61 could make sense as well. Moller has a picturesque swing that looks a little like a right handed Cody Bellinger, generating a ton of torque in his vicious but controlled uppercut. That in turn produces plus raw power that looks especially good from a catcher, and while his hit tool can be streaky, he has shown strong feel for the barrel against good pitching. The LSU commit also shows a good all-around defensive profile, with smooth glove work, a strong arm, and a quick release. It's a really well-rounded profile for a high school catcher, especially when he's hot at the plate, but high school catchers are notoriously risky and some teams avoid them altogether in the early rounds. The ceiling, though, is tantalizing, especially for a team like the Twins with an extra competitive balance pick.
Other options: RHP Aidan Maldonado (Illinois via Rosemount, MN), 2B Cooper Bowman (Louisville via Rapid City, SD), RHP Will Frisch (Oregon State via Stillwater, MN), OF Levi Usher (Louisville via Fairfax, IA), RHP Tanner Kohlhepp (Notre Dame via Eau Claire, WI)

Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP Will Bednar, Mississippi State (hometown: Valencia, PA)
Since Gibsonia native Neil Walker's star faded, we haven't had a star major leaguer from western Pennsylvania to take his place, but a few are coming up the pipeline. Between the Twins' Alex Kirilloff (Plum) and the Reds' Austin Hendrick (Imperial), there are a couple power hitting outfielders ready to make their marks, and now Mississippi State has what could be the best yinzer arm in a very long time. The younger brother of current Pirates reliever David Bednar, Will rode an excellent but short freshman season in Starkville (1.76 ERA, 23/6 K/BB in 15.1 IP) to an even bigger sophomore season, where he has pitched himself into the fringes of the first round conversation. While he won't be in play when the Pirates lead off the draft with the first overall pick, he could make a lot of sense at #37 if he's still available. The Valencia native deals a low to mid 90's fastball that gets up to 95-96 at its best, bringing nice ride that misses bats. His slider has taken a step forward this year and has become a true plus pitch, a wipeout offering that misses bats even when he misses his location. Bednar has also worked in a solid curveball and changeup in the past, but since his slider took off, he hasn't had much need for them. His control is ahead of his command for now but he fills up the strike zone and has proven durable thus far. As a draft-eligible sophomore/COVID freshman, he might have a high asking price, but Pittsburgh should be able to swing it given the size of their bonus pool.
Other options: LHP Joe Rock (Ohio via Aliquippa, PA), RHP Cameron Weston (Michigan via Canonsburg, PA), OF Benny Montgomery (Red Land HS, Lewisberry, PA), RHP Michael Morales (East Pennsboro Area HS, Enola, PA), RHP Ryan Bergert (West Virginia via Canton, OH)

St. Louis Cardinals: LHP Drew Gray, IMG Academy, FL (hometown: Swansea, IL)
The Cardinals could target Memphis product Hunter Goodman in the second round, but if we really want to go with a hometown pick, we'll wait until the third or fourth round with Drew Gray. Gray grew up just across the river in Swansea, Illinois, next to Belleville, but headed across the country to the IMG Academy in Florida to hone his baseball skill set. Primarily known as an outfielder throughout most of his prep career, he's very new to pitching and is a pure projection pick at this point. He brings a low 90's fastball that gets up to 93-94 at its best, but can dip into the upper 80's later in his starts, and his breaking ball is pretty slurvy for now. However, scouts love the way his arm works and see a lot to like in his mechanics as well, and some thing that a simple combination of added strength and seasoning could make him a monster. Of course, given that Gray only turns 18 in May, there is plenty of time to do both of those things. The Cardinals could choose to bite with the 70th or 90th overall pick, in which case they'd be taking a risk but hopefully buying into the breakout before it happens. If he goes unsigned and makes it to campus at Arkansas, he could come out a first round pick in 2024.
Other options: C Hunter Goodman (Memphis via Arlington, TN), SS Benjamin Sems (Michigan via Chesterfield, MO), OF Colson Montgomery (Southridge HS, Huntingburg, IN), 1B Kevin Graham (Mississippi via O'Fallon, MO), LHP Hugh Fisher (Vanderbilt via Eads, TN)