Monday, August 9, 2021

2021 MLB Draft Review: San Francisco Giants

Full list of draftees

The Giants took nine straight pitchers to begin this draft, looking to balance out a system that right now is headlined mainly by hitters. They started it off with one of my favorite pitchers in the draft class, Will Bednar, then structured the majority of their draft around affording a massive over slot bonus for fourth rounder Eric Silva. Power was the theme here, as their first six picks top out at roughly 97, 98, 100, 97, 97, and 96, respectively, and they also weren't afraid of small conference arms like Fordham's Matt Mikulski, Lehigh's Mason Black, Yale's Rohan Handa, or Maine's Nick Sinacola. Bednar is my favorite pick here for a lot of reasons, but Handa is certainly the most interesting from a backstory perspective.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-14: RHP Will Bednar, Mississippi State. My rank: #11.
The Giants really started out on the right foot by grabbing Will Bednar, the 2021 College World Series MVP. The younger brother of Pirates reliever David Bednar, Will has been nearly untouchable during his two years in Starkville, posting a 2.93 ERA and a 162/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 107.2 innings. He finished it off with three great starts in the CWS, shutting down Texas, Texas again, and Vanderbilt to the tune of 18.1 innings, three runs, just five hits, and 26 strikeouts over the course of eleven days. Bednar has a full arsenal, but he really makes his money with two pitches, a plus fastball and slider. The fastball can touch 96-97 early in his starts before dipping down into the 91-94 range as the game goes on, and it plays up because he puts tremendous ride on the pitch that makes it nearly impossible to catch up to up in the zone. The slider has taken a huge step forward this year, coming in with serious late sweep that helped him rack up all those strikeouts. The Pittsburgh-area native also adds a curveball and changeup, and while they're not known far and wide throughout the SEC like his fastball and slider, they're effective pitches in their own right. His curveball flashes average with vertical break distinct from his slider, while the changeup, when located well, is a useful weapon against left handed hitters. Bednar's command is not pinpoint but he rarely gets himself into trouble over walks, doing a good job of elevating the pitches that need to be elevated and burying the ones that don't. On the to-do list for pro ball is getting better at hitting individual corners. The 6'2" righty doesn't offer much projection but he doesn't need it, with a durable build and a powerful but efficient delivery that should enable him to pitch near the top of a big league rotation. To top it all off, he's a fierce competitor that lives for high pressure games and never shies away from the lights. He signed for $3.65 million, which was roughly $390,000 below slot value, or in other words, fantastic value.

2-50: LHP Matt Mikulski, Fordham. My rank: #46.
Matt Mikulski was eligible for the draft last year, but ultimately his body of work against mediocre competition wasn't impressive enough to earn serious consideration in the five round event. He went back on the grind during the shutdown and emerged in 2021 a completely different picture, putting up video game numbers and thrusting himself into the second round. After holding a 3.98 ERA over his first three seasons, he posted a 1.45 ERA and a 124/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 68.1 innings, picking up double digit strikeouts in eight of his eleven starts and topping out with sixteen against St. Bonaventure on April 10th. Mikulski wasn't facing the toughest competition up in the Northeast, with eventual #4 seed NJIT (4 IP, 2 ER, 8 K) representing the only NCAA Tournament team, but they were all still Division I hitters and nobody could touch him. The New York native's fastball has ticked more consistently into the low to mid 90's and is now topping out around 98, while his slider flashes above average with sweep and his curveball can be a bit loopy but shows nice depth. He also adds an above average changeup with drop, and together the arsenal was simply too much for his opponents. The 6'4" lefty has smoothed out his delivery considerably and hides the ball well, but it still features some effort and his command likely doesn't project as any better than average. For that reason, plus the fact that he turned 22 in May, there is some reliever risk, but the Giants have been good about developing pitching lately and he has every chance to stick as a #3 or #4 starter. Mikulski signed for $1.2 million, which was roughly $270,000 below slot value.

3-85: RHP Mason Black, Lehigh. My rank: #92.
Returning to the small northeastern private school ranks, the Giants grabbed another power armed pitcher in Mason Black. Black stamped his name into the scouting spotlight in a big way in the Cape Cod League back in 2019, posting a 1.43 ERA and a 39/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 37.2 innings against elite, mostly older competition. However, he didn't perform as well against Lehigh's weaker Patriot League schedule, carrying a 4.09 ERA and a pedestrian 57/20 strikeout to walk ratio through his first two seasons. Those numbers improved this spring to 3.11 and 95/31 over 72.1 innings, but not quite enough to answer all of scouts' questions. That leaves us with a bit of an enigma that has split the scouting industry, but the Giants were clearly on the bullish side and I'd say I lean that way too. The 6'3" righty has a low to mid 90's fastball that has reached 100 in short stints, though it can get hit when he dips into that 92-94 range. His breaking ball can be slurvy at times, but when it's at its best, it's a plus pitch that can miss a ton of bats. He also adds a changeup that flashes average, but like his other pitches, can be inconsistent. The Scranton-area native is better at throwing strikes than hitting individual spots, and he's not quite as athletic as a guy like Will Bednar. Interestingly, Black is an extremely intelligent kid who studied bioengineering at Lehigh and wanted to go to medical school if baseball didn't work out. Those smarts between the ears, combined with the incredible arm strength necessary to hit triple digits with his fastball, should help him put it all together and pitch at his best with good instruction. I think the Giants could have a #3 starter or better on their hands in that case but it will take work. He signed right at slot value for $710,700.

4-115: RHP Eric Silva, JSerra Catholic HS. My rank: #142.
After saving roughly a combined $660,000 over their first three picks, the Giants spent it here on a West Coast prep arm. Eric Silva is an interesting arm because he doesn't quite fall into any clear category. He's a power arm, but he's not quite overpowering yet, and he also shows good feel for pitching, but isn't a command artist. Some would see that profile and label him a tweener/long relief option, while others such as the Giants see an opportunity to put everything together and build a mid-rotation starter. The Orange County native sits in the low 90's with his fastball, reportedly reaching back for as much as 97 this spring but also dipping closer to 90 as the season wore on. He throws a distinct upper 70's slider and mid 70's curveball with great shape and finish, though both pitches need to add power to be true bat missing weapons. Given his fastball velocity, it's not hard to envision him doing so in the Giants' development system. He also throws a changeup that can be inconsistent but flashes nice fade. The 6'1" righty has a durable look and while there are some moving parts in his delivery such as a wide leg kick, he repeats it well for the most part and is generally around the strike zone. A couple of tweaks should get him to at least average command. Silva was one of the few high-end UCLA commits to sign, earning the Giants' second largest bonus at $1.5 million, roughly a million dollars above slot value. 

5-146: LHP Rohan Handa, Yale. Unranked.
Here's a cinderella story if there ever was one. The son of Indian immigrants, Rohan Handa stepped onto campus at Yale nowhere in the vicinity of a being pro prospect. He spent two years in the Bulldogs bullpen to uninspiring results, posting a 5.97 ERA and a 19/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.1 innings and failing to stand out even on a pitching staff that wasn't exactly a scouting destination anyways. His shutdown ended up being longer than most, as the Ivy League cancelled their spring sports so as to keep healthy, young, set-to-be-vaccinated athletes from appearing on the same outdoor field, and boy did he take advantage of it. When Handa appeared back on the mound late in workouts and in the NECL this spring, he was a completely different pitcher. The fastball now sits in the low to mid 90's and has touched 97, while he flashes a plus slider with late break that still could use to get more consistent. The 6'3" lefty also throws a changeup, but it's his third pitch and remains unproven. Handa has a high effort delivery and doesn't always provide consistent strikes, which likely points to a career in the bullpen given his lack of a reliable changeup, but the man is trending straight upwards and who is to say he doesn't continue to improve in the Giants' development system? The Charlotte-area native, like third rounder Mason Black, is an extremely intelligent kid (obviously, he's at Yale) and heavily involved in philanthropy already. He signed for $347,500, which was $24,100 below slot value.

6-176: LHP Seth Lonsway, Ohio State. My rank: #144.
In stark contrast to Rohan Handa, Seth Lonsway has been on the scouting radar for a long time. He had Midwest area scouts making regular trips to western Ohio to see him pitch as a high schooler back in 2017, but ultimately priced himself out and ended up at Ohio State. After redshirting his freshman season in 2018, he showed some of the loudest stuff in the Big Ten over the next two seasons and had a chance to go in the top three rounds in 2020, but again opted to head back for a fourth year. Unfortunately, the same questions that held him back from 2019-2020 were present in 2021, and he fell to the sixth round after posting a 4.37 ERA and a 98/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 innings. The stuff is still loud for sure. The 6'3" lefty pummels hitters with a low to mid 90's fastball that regularly gets up to 95-96, exploding out of his hand and showing great ride from his overhand delivery. Lonsway also throws an absolute hammer of a curveball and misses bats with a plus slider as well, while his changeup is more of a fourth pitch. The drawback has been command, as he walked 14.2% of his opponents in 2019, 21.7% in the shortened 2020 season, and then 14.5% this year. He regularly loses his release point and at this point you have to figure he simply does not have any feel to spot his pitches. Set to turn 23 in October, hope for Lonsway to stick in the rotation is receding fast and at this point, he's probably better off just going straight to the bullpen and seeing what happens. There, he won't have to focus so much on location and can instead just grip it, rip it, and see what happens, with the end result likely being simply overpowering stuff even at the major league level. You can see the Celina, Ohio native giving fans a heart attack with a propensity to get himself into trouble, then working out of it by striking out the side. He signed for $300,000, which was $18,200 above slot value.

7-206: RHP Nick Sinacola, Maine. Unranked.
Going back to a small conference northeastern school yet again, the Giants grabbed another one of the best pitchers in the region in Nick Sinacola. Like Matt Mikulski, he was untouchable this spring, posting a 2.04 ERA and a 139/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.1 innings, and also like Mikulski, NJIT was the only tournament-bound team that he faced (5 IP, 2 ER, 10 K). Sinacola is far from overpowering, sitting around 90 with his fastball and only topping out around 92-93, but that's not his money pitch anyways. The 6'1" righty mainly pitches off his sweepy slider, which again doesn't have a ton of power around 80 but still misses bats because he rarely misses his spot with it. He also flips in an average splitter. Everything Sinacola throws plays up because he repeats his delivery well and shows above average command, and that was enough to completely keep northeastern mid major bats off balance. In pro ball, however, he might not be able to sneak that slider by as many bats, and the bullpen might be a better spot for him. There, the southern Massachusetts native could see both his fastball and slider tick up a bit in velocity, which with his command would be hugely beneficial. He signed for $197,500, which was $23,700 below slot value.

8-236: RHP Ian Villers, California. Unranked.
Ian Villers is a hometown pick, having attended Northgate High School across the Bay in Walnut Creek before going on to spend three years at Cal. He struggled with command and ran a 20/19 strikeout to walk ratio over his first two seasons, but emerged as a valuable swingman this year with a 2.84 ERA and a 36/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 innings. Villers has plenty of arm strength and can reach back for 96-97 when he wants it, but he's more comfortable down in the low 90's where he's been able to take that step forward with his command. Like Nick Sinacola, he often pitches off his slider, which flashes above average and comes in with more power than his seventh round counterpart. The big 6'6" righty also mixes in a curveball, changeup, splitter, and cutter, which all have their moments but remain behind the fastball/slider. He repeats his delivery well and has done a better job of filling up the strike zone, though I'm not huge on college relievers and he won't get the luxury of seeing his stuff jump when he moves from the rotation to the bullpen since he's already there, but playing into Villers' favor is the fact that he's extremely young for the class and doesn't turn 21 until September. There is the chance that the Giants could try to work him back into the rotation, where he does have the size, arm strength, command, and arsenal to profile as a #4 or #5 guy. The age certainly doesn't hurt that. Villers signed for $217,500, which was $41,200 above slot value.

9-266: RHP Mat Olsen, Central Arizona JC. Unranked.
With Matt Olson hitting home runs across the Bay, I guess the Giants wanted in on the action and drafted their own Mat Olsen, though this one is a pitcher. Hailing from the small town of Florence between Phoenix and Tucson, he stayed close to home at Central Arizona JC and has been exceptional over the last two seasons, combining for a 2.09 ERA and a 194/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 innings. Olsen shows a low 90's fastball that has been popping the mid 90's more and more often, getting up to 96 this year, and he throws a solid-average curveball with conviction that helps him rack up the strikeouts. He adds in a slider and changeup but mainly pitches off the fastball and curveball, with his four pitch mix giving him a chance to start at the next level. Though he has a relatively high effort delivery, the 5'11" righty can still pour in strikes as he goes right after hitters and understands the art of pitching. Area scouts love him for that, and if he's forced to the bullpen regardless, he has the competitive mentality you look for in a reliever. He's also young, having just turned 21 three days before the draft. Rather than fulfill an Arizona State commitment, Olsen signed for $147,500, which was $7,800 below slot.

No comments:

Post a Comment