For the second straight year, the Orioles went way below slot in the top five to get a left handed Texan outfielder, following Amarillo native and Arkansas Razorbacks slugger Heston Kjerstad at second overall last year with Colton Cowser this year. I honestly don't love the class they pulled together, as even after pick #5 they went below slot again at picks #41 and #65. They spent most of their savings on prep catcher Creed Willems ($812,300 over) and Kentucky outfielder John Rhodes ($556,800 over), but still fell more than $150,000 short of spending their entire bonus pool. The draft is the single most cost-effective way to add talent to your organization, so I don't know why you wouldn't be more aggressive, especially when you hold the fifth overall pick and four of the first 76. In terms of draft patterns, it was a very hitter-heavy class with ten of their first eleven picks being position players, while Willems was not just the only high schooler, but the only player below 21 in the entire class (technically Rhodes and Daniel Lloyd turned 21 a few weeks after the draft, but they are currently 21). Baltimore prioritized college performance, with the majority of their picks showing loud slash lines at whatever level they played. It was also a class heavy on southerners, with seven of their first eight picks hailing from Texas, North Carolina, Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas again, Louisiana, Georgia, and Texas once more, respectively. I'd say my favorite picks were second rounder Connor Norby and fourth rounder Donta' Williams.
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1-5: OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State. My rank: #15.
Most projected Colton Cowser to go more in the pick 7-14 range, but the Orioles saw a chance to save some money and jumped on him here at #5. He was considered the fourth best prospect on his high school team, which included 2019 top picks JJ Goss (Rays, 36th overall) and Matthew Thompson (White Sox, 45th overall) as well as fellow 2021 top pick Ty Madden (Tigers, 32nd overall via Texas). As it turned out, he beat all of their draft positions rather comfortably and you could argue he's the best of the bunch today. Cowser had a huge freshman season at Sam Houston State (.361/.450/.602), but never quite got rolling in the shortened 2020 season and slumped to start 2021, hitting .263 with two home runs against a weak schedule into late March. However, he immediately turned things around with four home runs over his next two games and never looked back, homering in five straight games at another point and finishing the season at .374/.490/.680 with 16 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 32/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. He has spent his time in Huntsville facing a relatively mediocre schedule, but as a career .354/.460/.608 hitter with 24 home runs and more walks than strikeouts, what more can you really ask of him? He swung the bat well against tough competition as a rising sophomore on the US Collegiate National Team back in 2019 and has proven his plus hit tool time and again, managing the strike zone very well and executing well on his swings. It's a relatively flat swing that's more geared for line drives at this point, but he's still filling out his 6'3" frame and has a chance to grow into above average power. For now, despite the 16 home runs this year, it's more average than above average because he doesn't produce big exit velocities. The Houston-area native is an above average runner who has a chance to stick in center field, and if the Orioles are drafting him here, they certainly believe he will. It will be interesting to see how he develops physically because if he tacks on a bunch of strength, he may slow down and have to move to a corner, where he could be a 20+ home run bat with high on-base percentages. If his body stays mostly the same and he doesn't slow down, we might be looking at more of a 15-20 home run profile. Overall, it's definitely an impact bat who should hit at or near the top of the lineup for a long time. He signed for $4.9 million, which was roughly $1.28 million below slot value, and he's off to a hot .405/.489/.622 start through eleven games between the FCL and Low A Delmarva.
2-41: 2B Connor Norby, East Carolina. My rank: #42.
Connor Norby was not even remotely on the prospect map after hitting .194/.286/.290 as a freshman pinch hitter with limited physical tools, but since the start of his sophomore year, he has simply forced his way into the spotlight through nonstop mashing. From 2020-2021, he hit .412/.476/.627 with 16 home runs and a 44/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 games. This year, he had three separate double digit hitting streaks including one that reached twenty games, and he had more three hit games (ten) than hitless games (seven). He has exceptional barrel accuracy that enables him to do damage virtually anywhere in the zone and even sometimes outside of it, rarely getting fooled and often still making hard contact when he does. Few players in this class fit the "knack for hard contact" description better than Norby does, so even if he isn't the biggest or strongest guy in the class at 5'10", he maximizes his raw power consistently in games by simply finding the barrel at a high volume. When you smoke at least two to three line drives a game, quite a few are bound to go out. The glove isn't quite as special, as his average athleticism will limit him to second base, but he'll hit enough to profile there. The transition to pro ball should be quick and easy even coming from a mid major conference, and the Winston-Salem-area native projects for home run totals somewhere in the teens to go along with high on-base percentages. Being young for the class and having turned 21 in June helps. He signed for $1.7 million, which was roughly $110,000 below slot value, and he's slashing .182/.243/.273 through ten games between the FCL and Low A Delmarva.
CBB-65: OF Reed Trimble, Southern Mississippi. My rank: #136.
The Orioles continued their run on mid major college performers from the South here, picking up Southern Miss outfielder Reed Trimble. He's coming off a huge redshirt freshman season in which he slashed .345/.414/.638 with 17 home runs and a 46/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, capped off by a sensational run through the Oxford regional in which went 14-25 with three home runs against Florida State, Southeast Missouri State, and Ole Miss. He generates above average power from a quick, forceful uppercut that punished the decent C-USA pitching he faced this spring, even from a skinny 6' frame. Trimble is an aggressive hitter who attacks early in the count and can find himself falling behind often, but he still managed a respectable 17.2% strikeout rate even as he rarely walked. He'll probably want to learn to be a bit more patient, as pro pitchers will attack his vulnerable spots and get him even more consistently into 0-1, 0-2 holes. Additionally, the Jackson-area native is a plus-plus runner who absolutely flies around the bases, so drawing a few more walks would certainly not be a bad thing. That speed serves him well in center field as well, where he projects to stay and could be the one to push Colton Cowser to a corner if he hits enough. The aggressive approach led to some pause in the industry as to whether he profiled as an everyday player, especially since he wasn't playing in a power conference, but Trimble's big regional performance assuaged those concerns a bit. He has a chance for 15-25 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages and plenty of stolen bases. Draft-eligible in his second year due to a very early birthday, he's just two days older than Connor Norby and is therefore younger than most collegiate players. He also took a discount by signing for $800,000, which was roughly $230,000 below slot value, and he's hitting .286/.464/.333 through eight games between the FCL and Low A Delmarva.
3-76: OF John Rhodes, Kentucky. My rank: #123.
After saving over $1.6 million with their first three picks, the Orioles spent some of that money here on the rare big over slot splash from the college ranks. It's a bit of an interesting over slot bonus, because #76 is way above where most have him ranked and my #123 ranking was actually higher than Prospects Live (#125), MLB Pipeline (#134), and Baseball America (#172). I guess that points to a big split on where the industry and the media saw him fitting, or at least the Orioles. John Rhodes wasn't the biggest name recruit when he got to Kentucky, but scouts quickly learned his name after he hit .426/.485/.672 in his shortened 17 game freshman season last year. 2021 was certainly a bit more up and down and Rhodes finished at .251/.397/.508 with eleven home runs and a 38/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games, showing flashes of multiple different ways he can develop. It's not huge raw power, but he taps what he has and hit some moonshots this spring when he let it rip, though that tendency to over swing at times led to very inconsistent performance. When he stays within himself, the Chattanooga-area native takes very professional at bats and works counts well, and he even tied for second in the SEC by getting hit by 18 pitches. He'll have to decide what kind of hitter he wants to be going forward, because there's certainly above average power when he tries to tap it but to this point he hasn't learned to tap it naturally, while he certainly has the plate discipline to be a productive line drive hitter. The Orioles like his age, as he was only barely eligible this spring as a second year player and just turned 21 a week before I released this review, and they believe that youth will give him extra time to grow into his game. Rhodes is a good runner who has a chance to be an above average right fielder, though center field is a stretch especially when he's in the same draft class as Colton Cowser and Reed Trimble. He signed for $1.38 million, which was $556,800 above slot value, and he's hitting .259/.375/.370 through nine games between the FCL and Low A Delmarva.
4-106: OF Donta' Williams, Arizona. Unranked.
I was well aware of Donta' Williams before the draft, but I never had the chance to dig deep enough into him to add him to my list and he's definitely one of the guys I wish I got to. Williams has gotten better and better every year at Arizona, culminating in a great fourth season in which he slashed .342/.481/.538 with eight home runs and a 40/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. Hitting at the top of an absolutely loaded Wildcats offense and manning center field, he was among the team's on and off field leaders as they clubbed their way to a College World Series berth. He's the consummate leadoff hitter in that he's adept at working counts and draws a ton of walks (and gets hit by a ton of pitches), getting on base at close to a .500 clip over the last two seasons. Even when he doesn't get on, because he sees and positively identifies so many pitches, he can fulfill the leadoff role by reporting back to the rest of the lineup on a pitcher's stuff. The eight home runs in 2021 were a bit of a surprise after he clubbed just three over his first three seasons, and he projects for below average power in pro ball. Defensively, he has elite feel for the outfield and makes every play he can, playing hard and playing smart out there to minimize baseballs on the ground despite a lack of plus speed. Having watched him plenty in college, the Las Vegas native is just a fun player to watch and should become a fan favorite in Baltimore. There's not as much ceiling here as the guys above him just due to the lack of power and the fact that he's already 22, but it's a pretty safe bet fourth outfield type who won't give away at bats and would be a good defensive replacement late in games. He signed for $400,000, which was $149,000 below slot value, and he's staying true to form by slashing .333/.481/.429 through nine games between the FCL and Low A Delmarva.
5-137: RHP Carlos Tavera, Texas-Arlington. Unranked.
The only pitcher the Orioles drafted in the first ten rounds, Carlos Tavera might have a bit more pressure riding on him to perform, though he should be up to the task. He struggled as a freshman at UTA in 2018 and transferred to Weatherford JC in 2019, then came back to Arlington and has been much better. In 2021, he had a career year with a 3.04 ERA and a 117/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings, highlighted by nine no-hit innings against Arkansas-Little Rock in a game that ultimately took eleven to complete. Tavera sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can reach back for up to 95, adding a slider with great shape and a changeup with nice fade. His command has improved steadily and is now fringe-average, and his stuff plays up because he gets down the mound well, releases the ball out in front, and gets high spin rates. For those reasons, the Orioles believe the 6'1" righty could continue to get better despite turning 23 early in the upcoming offseason, with a chance to become a #3 or #4 starter if he takes small steps forward across the board. Positive trajectory is always a good thing and he certainly has it. The Fort Worth native signed for #375,000, which was $31,000 below slot value, and he tossed a shutout inning in his Low A Delmarva debut, walking one and striking out two.
6-167: SS Collin Burns, Tulane. Unranked.
The Orioles are starting a little bit of a Tulane to Baltimore pipeline after drafting Hudson Haskin a year ago and adding Collin Burns and 15th rounder Keagan Gillies this year. Burns is coming off a huge breakout year for the Green Wave after slashing .353/.410/.571 with eight home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 42/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. He's an aggressive hitter who loves to attack fastballs early in the count, and when he gets them, he usually puts them in play. That suppresses his walk rates a bit and an get him in trouble with two strikes, but he still kept his strikeout rate to a reasonable 15.7% and did a ton of damage against a reasonably strong AAC schedule (plus a 6-14 series against Mississippi State, including a triple and a home run). He's not huge at 5'11", but he deploys his strength effective into fringe-average power, which will be plenty enough to keep pitchers honest in pro ball. The New Orleans-area native has a solid glove and plays hard at shortstop, and while he'll likely never be a plus defender, he should be adequate if the Orioles don't have better options. I don't really see an everyday player here, so he'll probably move around all the infield positions as a utility guy, but he'll be one who can get the job done on both sides of the ball. His plus speed gives him an extra way to impact the game. Burns signed for $375,000, which was $70,800 above slot value and he's hitting .333/.433/.417 through eight games between the FCL and Low A Delmarva.
7-197: C Connor Pavolony, Tennessee. Unranked.
The Orioles added to their catching depth with Connor Pavolony, who had been Tennessee's starting catcher for most of the past three seasons. He might not have been the most explosive hitter in what was a loaded Tennessee lineup this spring, finishing at .260/.365/.442 with seven home runs and a 46/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games, but the Orioles certainly like what they're getting. He packs a lot of strength into his 6'1" frame and has natural feel to really whip the barrel through the zone, creating plenty of torque and some nice exit velocities. Pavolony doesn't always tap that power with a fringy hit tool that led to a 25% strikeout rate this spring, but he hit much better during the second half of the season and all seven of his home runs came from April 11th onwards. With the bat trending in the right direction, Baltimore felt comfortable enough to take a day two swing at him, especially given that he's an above average defender with an above average arm. That takes a ton of pressure off his bat and while it's more of a backup profile, especially given the presence of Adley Rutschman, he has a chance to impact the games he gets into. A Rutschman-Pavolony combination could definitely be reality in Baltimore pretty soon, though he'll want to move quickly because of the man the Orioles drafted right behind him. The Atlanta-area native signed for $325,000, which was $88,000 above slot value, and he's slashing .208/.321/.417 through eight games between the FCL and Low A Delmarva.
8-227: C Creed Willems, Aledo HS [TX]. Unranked.
Given that it ultimately required slot value for the 66th overall pick to divert Creed Willems from a firm TCU commitment, this was a completely off the radar pick. Willems went unranked on both MLB Pipeline's top 250 and Prospects Live's top 600, and only barely cracked Baseball America's top 500 at #453. The Orioles put a lot of eggs in this basket and believe they could be catching lightning in a bottle, and if they let him head east to Fort Worth for school, he could have become a much more in-demand prospect. Willems is a big boy at a listed 6', 225 pounds, and he uses that size well in his all-around game. First off, it gives him big raw power from the left side, and he's not afraid to use it with a healthy hack that can send the ball a long distance. The hit tool is pretty unproven for now, so he might move slower than most, and that does create some risk. Behind the plate, he moves well for his size and can get that big body in front of errant pitches pretty effectively, and while his transfer can be a bit slow at times, he has a cannon arm to make up for it and has actually touched 94 on the mound. The Orioles see true starting catcher upside here (maybe not enough to unseat Adley Rutschman but they'll figure that out later), especially as he gets into a pro conditioning program and really starts to build up muscle. The fact that he's young for the class, turning 18 just over a month before the draft, also points to more chances to develop both his skill set and his physicality. Willems signed for $1 million, which was $812,300 above slot value, and he has one hit in seven at bats in the FCL.
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