The Giants' farm system was in pretty dire condition at this time last year, but a number of breakouts make this a greatly improved system. Up at the top, Conner Menez and Sean Hjelle now give Logan Webb a serious run for the top MLB-ready pitching prospect in the system, while Seth Corry's breakout down in A ball might be the most important among all the pitchers. On the offensive side, Heliot Ramos got it figured out like we all knew he would, but the real story of perhaps the entire farm system has been the success of the recent international signees. Franklin Labour (2015) and Alexander Canario (2016) put it all together in big breakout seasons, while Marco Luciano, Jairo Pomares, Luis Matos, and Victor Bericoto (all 2018) took complex ball by storm to make that 2018 international class look like a gold mine. However, the reality is aside from that trio of pitchers (Menez, Hjelle, and Webb) and a couple of guys like Ramos, Joey Bart, and Mauricio Dubon the vast majority of the talent in this system is a long way off.
Affiliates: AAA Sacramento River Cats, AA Richmond Flying Squirrels, High A San Jose Giants, Class A Augusta GreenJackets, short season Salem-Keizer Volcanos, complex level AZL and DSL Giants
Catcher
- Joey Bart (2020 Age: 23): Bart vaulted himself to the top of the 2018 draft with a huge junior season at Georgia Tech, ultimately going second overall to the Giants. In 2019, he slashed .278/.328/.495 with 16 home runs and a 71/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 games at High A San Jose and AA Richmond. He has a ton of pop from the right spot and he has proven he can get to it consistently, and it could ultimately translate to 25-30 or more home runs annually in the majors. His weak spot on offense is his hit tool, which he has worked hard to improve from below average to nearly average. He's still a free swinger and his plate discipline remains so-so, but he's trending in the right direction and it shouldn't be a problem at the major league level. Defensively, he's also trending in the right direction and he's now considered an above average defender behind the plate, and the whole package should make the Atlanta-area native a more than fitting replacement for Buster Posey, another Georgia native.
- Aramis Garcia (2020 Age: 27): It ain't easy when you're blocked by Buster Posey at your position and coming up behind you is arguably the best catching prospect in the game. Garcia spent most of 2019 at AAA Sacramento, where he slashed .271/.343/.488 with 16 home runs and a 114/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games, and he's also slashed .229/.270/.419 with six home runs and a 52/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 games in his major league career between 2018 and 2019. That major league line is roughly what we can expect out of Garcia over the long run, if possibly a bit on the low side. He has good pop for a catcher and is capable of hitting 15-20 home runs annually, but he's a free swinger that has a few holes in his swing, so I wouldn't expect high on-base percentages. He would fit in as a solid back-up catcher for both Posey and Bart, though if he goes elsewhere and makes some adjustments in his approach, he may be able to start.
- Ricardo Genoves (2020 Age: 20-21): Genoves has always been known to scouts as a glove-first catcher who may or may not hit, but he did hit in 2019 and that's a good sign going forward. In 51 games, he slashed .265/.335/.469 with nine home runs and a 41/17 strikeout to walk ratio at short season Salem-Keizer and Class A Augusta, tapping into that moderate raw power he packs into his 6'2" frame and getting to the barrel often enough to be a productive hitter. It's hard to say whether those gains will translate up into the mid and upper minors, but he did slash .292/.361/.446 in his 19 games at Class A and he doesn't turn 21 until May. His glove will buy his bat plenty of time, and he projects as a back-up catcher.
- Keep an eye on: Brandon Martorano
Corner Infield
- Chris Shaw (2020 Age: 26): Shaw finds himself in a somewhat similar position to Aramis Garcia in that he's blocked by Brandon Belt at his primary position, though he doesn't have a Joey Bart coming up behind him. This year, Shaw slashed .294/.360/.559 with 28 home runs and a 111/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at AA Richmond and AAA Sacramento, and like Garcia, he's spent parts of two seasons in the majors, slashing .153/.244/.222 with one home run in 38 games. The Boston College product has a lot of raw pop from the left side of the plate, and while he's been able to get to it in the upper minors, that hasn't been the case yet at the major league level. Always a free swinger, major league pitchers have exploited holes in Shaw's swing, much like they have with Garcia, and while he has more power than his catching counterpart, he doesn't provide nearly as much defensive value. He's fine as a first baseman, but the Giants have Belt there and he's worked to mediocre results in left field. He ultimately projects as a Matt Adams-like platoon bat.
- Logan Wyatt (2020 Age: 22): Wyatt was a second round pick out of Louisville this year, and I think he might be one of the better Day One bargains. Pushed across three levels in his brief pro debut, he slashed .278/.388/.377 with three home runs and a 29/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games in the complex level Arizona League, at short season Salem-Keizer, and at Class A Augusta. Unlike all of the other names you've read here so far, he's an extremely patient hitter, and his excellent plate discipline helps him put up high on-base percentages while also handling advanced pitching. However, he's a first baseman who has still not proven he can hit for power, as he's 6'4" with great feel for the barrel but seems content with just lacing the ball into the dirt. If Wyatt joins the launch angle revolution over his first pro offseason and comes out lifting the ball in the spring, watch out – he could hit 20-25 home runs annually with those high on-base percentages and replace Brandon Belt as a very similar player.
- Luis Toribio (2020 Age: 19): Toribio spent most of 2019 down in the complex level Arizona League, and he slashed .296/.433/.454 with three home runs and a 59/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games between there and three games with Salem-Keizer. He's an extremely patient hitter with good knowledge of the strike zone, especially for his age (he only turned 19 in September), and combining his high walk rates with very good feel for the barrel should help him post high on-base percentages in the majors. It's not yet known what kind of power he'll hit for, but he's got a projectable frame at 6'1" and he generates a lot of torque in his left handed swing, so more is certainly possible if not likely. He has high upside and with the way that fellow international signees Franklin Labour, Marco Luciano, and Alexander Canario broke out this year, he most certainly could be next.
- Keep an eye on: Zach Green, David Villar, Jacob Gonzalez, Garrett Frechette, Victor Bericoto
Middle Infield
- Mauricio Dubon (2020 Age: 25-26): This guy has been around forever. A 26th round pick by the Red Sox out of a Sacramento high school in 2013, Dubon was traded to the Brewers in the Travis Shaw/Tyler Thornburg deal following the 2016 season and then to the Giants for Drew Pomeranz at the 2019 deadline. After missing most of 2018 with an ACL injury, he got back on his feet this year and slashed .302/.345/.477 with 20 home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 68/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games between the two AAA affiliates and also hit .274/.306/.434 with four home runs over 30 major league games. While he popped 25 home runs overall in 2019, that might set power expectations a bit higher than they should be, as the Pacific Coast League is extremely hitter-friendly and his build is more conducive to 10-15 home runs per year. He does show good feel for the barrel and has hit for high averages and on-base percentages everywhere he's gone, and he profiles well with good defense at second base and playable defense at shortstop. A plus runner before the ACL injury, it may have sapped some of his speed but he was still safely above average in that regard in his debut. If the Giants don't go out and sign a second baseman this offseason, Dubon should be able to take over as the starter on Opening Day and could put up a slash line similar to the .274/.306/.434 mark he had last season.
- Marco Luciano (2020 Age: 18): This is one of the most exciting young prospects in the system. Signed for $2.6 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2018, he skipped the DSL entirely and went straight to the complex-level Arizona League as a 17 year old in 2019, and all he did was slash .322/.438/.616 with ten home runs and a 39/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 games. He earned a late promotion to short season Salem-Keizer, where he was one of the youngest players in the league and slashed .212/.316/.333 with six strikeouts to five walks in nine games. Very athletically built at 6'2", he has a sweet right handed swing that produces nice leverage and power, which he combines with advanced plate discipline to consistently find pitches to attack and drive. For now, he's a shortstop with a strong arm and he has a good chance to stay there, but there's a chance he moves to third base down the line. For now, Luciano has everything going for him as a young prospect with no clear holes in his game, and he has one of the highest ceilings in the system.
- Tyler Fitzgerald (2020 Age: 22): It took Fitzgerald's highly regarded bat a few years to get going once he got to Louisville, but a big junior year pushed him into the fourth round in 2019 and he slashed .276/.358/.395 with one home run, six stolen bases, and a 41/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games across three levels up to Class A Augusta. That line is just about accurate. He's not going to wow you with any big tools, but he's a competent hitter with some gap power who should grow into moderate home run power while getting on base at a solid clip. Defensively, he should be able to stick at shortstop, though his profile perfectly fits that of a utility infielder. If he has to move over to third base, Luis Toribio and maybe Jacob Gonzalez are his only real competition, unless of course if Marco Luciano slides over there as well. He should move through the minors relatively quickly.
- Keep an eye on: Abiatal Avelino, Jalen Miller, Dilan Rosario
Outfield
- Heliot Ramos (2020 Age: 20): A first round pick out of Puerto Rico in 2017, Ramos' first full season at Class A Augusta in 2018 was a bit disappointing (.245/.313/.395), but he broke out in a big way in 2019. Playing at High A San Jose, where he was one of the younger players in the California League, he slashed .306/.385/.500 with 13 home runs and an 85/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 77 games to earn a promotion to AA Richmond at just 19 years old. There, he added three more home runs and slashed .242/.321/.421 over 25 games, which is still impressive given his age. He's an explosive player with power, speed, and a strong arm in the outfield, giving him a classic right field profile if he has to move out of center. There are still raw elements to his game, as he still has some swing and miss and hasn't proven himself against advanced pitching. That's okay because very few 20 year olds have, and just tightening up his strike zone judgement and finding the barrel a little more could make him a 25 homer bat in the majors with some speed and good defense.
- Hunter Bishop (2020 Age: 21-22): Bishop rode an absolutely massive breakout season at Arizona State (22 HR, .342/.479/.748) to a first round draft selection, and the Giants are happy to bring home the kid from San Mateo who attended Junipero Serra High School. He had a relatively quiet pro debut, slashing .229/.438/.429 with five home runs and a 39/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games between the complex level Arizona League and short season Salem-Keizer, but he did show some pop as well as stronger than expected plate discipline. He has a ton of power in his 6'5" frame, but questions loom over his ability to get to it consistently against advanced pitching as it never showed up in the Cape Cod League and didn't come often against Pac-12 pitching. He's a very patient hitter, which helps him maximize that power and get his pitches to drive, and he's trending in the right direction. With continued improvement in his hit tool, he could hit 30+ home runs annually in the majors, and he has enough speed to stick in center field. Overall, he could provide a lot of value on both sides of the ball.
- Sandro Fabian (2020 Age: 22): Fabian did a much better job in his second crack at High A, as he slashed just .200/.260/.325 as a 20 year old there in 2018 but bumped his line up to .287/.353/.413 with five home runs and a 33/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games there this year (plus a .219/.366/.500 line and two home runs in ten games in complex ball rehab). He's not going to hit for a ton of power, but he has good feel for the barrel from the right side and his plate discipline is improving to the point where he could be a useful fourth outfielder in the relatively near future. He's a good defender that should be able to handle all three spots, and if he can stay healthy consistently, he could hit around ten home runs annually with solid on-base percentages.
- Alexander Canario (2020 Age: 19-20): Canario signed for just $60,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2016 but he's already smashing expectations, and his breakout 2019 saw him slash .318/.377/.623 with 16 home runs and an 80/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games between the Arizona League and Salem-Keizer. He always had power potential, but he finally grew into it in 2019 and crushed balls all over the park both in complex and short season ball as a teenager with 38 extra base hits in 59 games. He's still a bit raw at the plate and can be overly aggressive, so full season ball will be a big test in 2020, but it's hard not to be excited about the big power and good feel for the barrel that he has. He should hit 20+ home runs annually in the majors while playing good defense in the outfield.
- Franklin Labour (2020 Age: 21-22): Perhaps even more under the radar than Canario was Franklin Labour, who signed for just $70,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2015 before spending three years in complex ball. Up at Salem-Keizer in 2019, he smashed 14 home runs in 41 games and slashed .307/.392/.639 with a 43/18 strikeout to walk ratio before being promoted to Class A Augusta, where he was a bit overmatched and hit .215/.282/.299 with one home run and a 40/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 31 games. He generates a ton of power and leverage from his right handed swing, and he got to it remarkably consistently in short season ball. However, as with Canario, the real test has to be full season ball, where he struggled in 2019. He's older than Canario and I'm less confident that his hit tool will translate up, but he has the upside as a power hitting left fielder.
- Jairo Pomares (2020 Age: 19-20)/Luis Matos (2020 Age: 18): I'm choosing to lump these guys together because they're both far, far away but have similar profiles and started their pro careers with a bang. Pomares, a Cuban import, slashed .368/.401/.542 in 37 Arizona League games but fell to .207/.258/.259 in 17 short season games with Salem-Keizer, while Matos, from Venezuela, hit .362/.430/.570 in 55 Dominican Summer League games before putting up a .438/.550/.500 line in five Arizona League games. Pomares stands 6'1", but it was the 5'11" Matos who showed more power in his pro debut, and both have shown exceptional bat to ball skills for their age while spraying line drives all over the park. Matos especially has shown very advanced plate discipline for his age, as he doesn't even turn 18 until January, and both are above average runners who have the ability to stick in center field. Pomares is more highly regarded at this point, but a part of me likes Matos better and wants to put my money on him.
- Keep an eye on: Bryce Johnson, Heath Quinn, Diego Rincones, Grant McCray, P.J. Hilson
Starting Pitching
- Logan Webb (2020 Age: 23): Somewhat of a hometown guy, Webb grew up in Rocklin, a Sacramento suburb, and had his breakout year in 2018 (2.41 ERA, 100/47 K/BB) four years after he was drafted. However, it turned out he was juicing and he was suspended for 80 games in 2019, but the results were still good; overall, he had a 1.85 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 69/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 63.1 innings across four levels, and he reached the majors in August and posted a 5.22 ERA and a 37/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 39.2 innings. He sits in the low to mid 90's and gets a ton of ground balls with that fastball, and he adds a power slider that has missed bats in bunches. His changeup is coming along and should be usable, and with his solid command, he should be able to make it as a #3 or #4 starter at the major league level if he can continue to refine that changeup. A move to the bullpen is not completely out of the question, but he's proven enough recently to earn a long look in the major league rotation.
- Conner Menez (2020 Age: 24-25): Born and raised in Hollister, which is just south of the Bay Area off 101, Menez was drafted in the 14th round out of The Master's University in 2016 and was all the way up in High A San Jose by the end of the year. However, it was 2019 that was his breakout season, as he posted a 3.79 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 154/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 innings at AA Richmond and AAA Sacramento, the latter of which was an extremely hitter-friendly context. He also made eight major league appearances with a 5.29 ERA and a 22/12 strikeout to walk ratio in 17 innings. He's a 6'3" lefty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball, two breaking balls, and a changeup, but everything plays up because he gets good angle on his pitches to create deception and a high spin rate to miss bats. His command has improved steadily as he's risen through the minors, and while he'll never be a pinpoint guy, he throws enough strikes now to be successful. Menez isn't a future ace but I feel like I'd be selling him short by describing him as just another #4 starter.
- Sean Hjelle (2020 Age: 22-23): It's hard to miss Hjelle (pronounced "jelly") on the baseball field, because he stands 6'11" and would match Jon Rauch as the tallest player ever if he makes the majors. However, after being drafted in the second round out of Kentucky in 2018, it was his performance on the mound that made him stand out even more. This year, he had a 3.32 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 139/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 143.2 innings across three levels all the way up to AA Richmond. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, but it gets on hitters quick due to his exceptionally long arms, and he adds a very good curveball that gets swings and misses. However, his best trait as a pitcher is his command, as he's walked just 41 batters in 165 pro innings so far and he can spot all of his pitches well. I'm not completely sold on Hjelle as an impact starter yet, but he has the chance to be a #3 starter with a more likely outcome as a #4 or #5.
- Seth Corry (2020 Age: 21): Corry was more of a projection guy than anything else when he was drafted in the third round out of a Utah high school in 2017, but that projection began to bear fruit in a breakout 2019. This year, he posted a 1.76 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 172/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.2 innings at Class A Augusta, showing greatly improved command to go with his power stuff. A 6'2" lefty, he's still likely below average with that command, but he's made enough progress that his low 90's fastball and excellent power curve can play up and miss bats by the bunches. There's still a lot more work to be done, but he's well on his way to reaching his ceiling as a #2 or #3 starter if he can tighten that command up a little more and continue to improve his changeup.
- Jake Wong (2020 Age: 23): Drafted one round after Hjelle out of Grand Canyon University, Wong had a solid first full season by posting a 3.90 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 101/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 innings between Class A Augusta and High A San Jose. His mid 90's fastball is his best attribute, and he adds an improving curveball and changeup to the mix, but it all plays down somewhat because his command is fringy and he lacks deception. I see him more as a reliever, where his fastball/curveball combination could sharpen and where he'll need less deception, but continued refinement of his command could make him a solid mid to back-end starter.
- Matt Frisbee (2020 Age: 23): A 15th round pick out of UNC-Greensboro in 2018, Frisbee was originally thought of as a reliever and was successfully used in that role in his pro debut last year (2.96 ERA, 36/13 K/BB). However, he transitioned back to the rotation in 2019 and the results were tremendous, as he posted a 3.13 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 154/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 132.1 innings at Augusta and San Jose. It's hard to find video or updated scouting reports on him, but coming out of college he sat in the low to mid 90's with his fastball but needed work on his secondaries. I can't confirm but I would guess that they took a step forward in 2019, as did his command, which went from solid to very good. A 6'5" righty, he has the chance to leapfrog some of the more highly-touted names on this list like Beck and Wong.
- Trevor McDonald (2020 Age: 19): The Giants have had a lot of success in their rotation with pitchers from Alabama (Tim Hudson, Matt Cain, Jake Peavy), and just a few miles over the border in George County, Mississippi, they grabbed 6'2" righty Trevor McDonald in the 2019 draft. McDonald only threw four pro innings in 2019 with a 2.25 ERA and eight strikeouts to two walks in complex ball, and he's all upside. He sits in the low 90's for now but with an incredibly quick arm, he could easily add velocity and get into the mid 90's, and he adds three offspeed pitches. They're all inconsistent for now, but he has shown a very strong feel for pitching, and he's the kind of guy who could take off with pro instruction. On the checklist are proving durability and getting more consistent with those secondary pitches, but he's a sleeper to watch.
- Keep an eye on: Tristan Beck, John Gavin, Kai-Wei Teng, Prelander Berroa
Relief Pitching
- Garrett Williams (2020 Age: 25): What do you make a guy who has posted ERA's of 5.01, 2.32, 6.06, and 3.60 in his four pro seasons, and who was equally inconsistent in college? Williams has always flashed big league stuff, but injuries and control problems have hampered him since his time at Oklahoma State. He can sit anywhere in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and he adds a curveball that is a true out pitch when he's on, but he loses the strike zone regularly and gets hammered when he does. In 2019, he had a 3.60 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 108/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 innings at AA Richmond, and the Giants finally moved him to the bullpen in August, where he had a 2.87 ERA and a 17/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 15.2 innings. This seems like a no-brainer to me, as the combination of injuries+unstable command+inconsistent stuff should be remedied.
- Blake Rivera (2020 Age: 22): Rivera still hopes to be next in the long line of Giants starters from Alabama, though he's looking more and more like a reliever. A fourth round pick out of an Alabama community college in 2018, he posted a 4.32 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and an 87/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 innings between Class A Augusta and complex ball rehab this year. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a very good curveball, but he hasn't proven to be consistent with either his strike throwing ability or his durability. He's still working on those things, and if he takes a step forward with either in 2020, he could stick as a starter, but for now he's looking like he could be a valuable two pitch reliever.
- Gregory Santos (2020 Age: 20): Santos, like Rivera, still has a shot at starting, but he's yet to eclipse 50 innings in a season while he's battled shoulder issues. In 2019, he posted a 2.86 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 26/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.2 innings at Augusta, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adding a curveball that looks good at times but which lacks hard bite. He's done a good job throwing strikes in his small samples, which means he could eventually have above average command if he can stay healthy, though durability is a serious question and a move to the bullpen might be in his best interest. Set to play all of 2020 at 20 years old, he'll still have every chance to prove himself as a starter.
- Keep an eye on: Melvin Adon, Sam Selman, Caleb Kilian
Showing posts with label Logan Wyatt. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Logan Wyatt. Show all posts
Saturday, November 23, 2019
Monday, July 15, 2019
2019 Draft Review: San Francisco Giants
First five rounds: Hunter Bishop (1-10), Logan Wyatt (2-51), Grant McCray (3-87), Tyler Fitzgerald (4-116), Garrett Frechette (5-146)
Also notable: Dilan Rosario (6-176), Trevor McDonald (11-326), Brooks Lee (35-1046), Will Rigney (38-1136)
The Giants employed an interesting draft strategy here, grabbing two elite college bats in the first two rounds before signing a bunch of overslot high schoolers with the $1.1 million they saved on those first two picks. Those two bats, Hunter Bishop and Logan Wyatt, have a chance to make up the middle of their order for years to come, then they got plenty of upside later on. I particularly see massively overslot eleventh rounder Trevor McDonald, who signed for almost as much as Wyatt, as a sleeper to keep an eye on.
1-10: OF Hunter Bishop (Arizona State, my rank: 10)
Hunter Bishop was projected to possibly go a couple of slots higher, so the Giants were ecstatic when the hometown kid fell to them at pick number ten. Bishop grew up in San Mateo and went to Junipero Serra High School, where he was considered a potential top five round pick and ranked 106th on my list. Instead, he packed it up and went to Arizona State, where he hit just .250/.352/.407 as a sophomore and then .233/.369/.350 with four home runs in 39 games in the elite Cape Cod League. However, he put everything together in a huge way in 2019, slashing .342/.479/.748 with 22 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 61/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games for the Sun Devils. Bishop more than quadrupled his home run output while cutting his strikeout rate from 30.3% to 21.8% and bumping his walk rate from 10.9% to 17.9%. He produces a ton of torque with his 6'5" frame, and the fact that he was able to improve his plate discipline so dramatically while adding all that power speaks volumes to the legitimacy of his breakout. However, he slashed just .264/.395/.529 with a 38/24 strikeout to walk ratio in conference games, combining with his swing and miss to lead to questions as to just how well his bat will profile at the next level. Despite his size, he's a good defender and may be able to handle center field, and he should be above average in left or right field. Overall, he has a ceiling of 30+ home runs and solid on-base percentages, though he's could become more of a 20-25 home run guy with middling on-base percentages if his swing and miss questions catch up to him. He signed for $4.1 million, which was $640,000 below slot, and he is slashing .250/.375/.550 with a home run and an 11/4 strikeout to walk ratio through six games in the complex level Arizona League.
2-51: 1B Logan Wyatt (Louisville, my rank: 27)
I really like this pick. I always thought Logan Wyatt was being underrated throughout the lead-up to the draft, and the Giants are going to get borderline first round/comp round value here in the second round (for a third round price tag). Wyatt didn't play much during his freshman year at Louisville but followed a big sophomore season with another big junior season this year, where he slashed .283/.445/.449 with nine home runs and a 48/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games, a late season slump dragging down his numbers a bit. Despite the late season slump, I believe in Wyatt's bat. At 6'4", 230 pounds, he's built like a slugger, and he actually slashed .304/.421/.571 in conference play in a tough ACC, as well as .305/.458/.438 with four home runs and more walks (29) than strikeouts (24) on the Cape, which is where my enthusiasm comes from. The kid from just outside of Louisville has an excellent eye at the plate that both helped him perform so well in the ACC as well as on the Cape, and it will continue to help him in pro ball. However, his power plays only average for now, and as a first baseman with little defensive value, that won't cut it in the long run. He has the eye to continue to find the barrel consistently even if the Giants change his swing to help him hit for more power, and with all the walks he draws (21.2% this year), he could be a 20-25 home run hitter with solidly high on-base percentages. However, he did slump at the end of the season and the pressure will be on the bat to develop. He signed for $997,500, which was $442,500 below slot, and he is slashing .450/.500/.500 with three strikeouts to three walks through six games in the Arizona League.
3-87: OF Grant McCray (Lakewood Ranch HS [FL], unranked)
Grant McCray's stock has been rising steadily throughout the spring as he begins to manifest his high upside. He's still very raw, but he's also very athletic and possesses the plus speed that scouts love. That athleticism also plays into his other parts of his game, as he uses his strength to generate leverage on the ball and hit for some power, with possible 20 homer pop in the tank. The Tampa-area high schooler won't move quickly, but he has the chance to develop a power/speed combination that is hard to come by. As a fun aside, his father, Rodney McCray, is famous for crashing through the outfield wall in a 1991 minor league game in Portland and played parts of three seasons in the majors with the White Sox and Mets. Grant signed away from a Florida State commitment for $697,500, which was $8,200 above slot, and he's slashing .206/.365/.265 with a 23/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games in the Arizona League.
4-116: SS Tyler Fitzgerald (Louisville, unranked)
65 picks after grabbing Louisville first baseman Logan Wyatt in the second round, the Giants went back to the Cardinals' infield and took shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald in the fourth round. Fitzgerald was a highly regarded recruit who ranked #116 on my 2016 list while in high school near Springfield, Illinois, but he took some time to adjust to college ball and hit just .208/.303/.272 as a freshman and .264/.344/.378 as a sophomore. However, he figured it out as a junior, slashing .315/.391/.483 with eight home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 50/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games, and that came on the heels of a .298/.370/.415 line over 43 Cape Cod League games. He doesn't stand out in any facet of the game, but he knows how to play and has hit well both on the Cape and in the ACC, so he has a high floor as a utility infielder. However, given his lack of loud skills, he also has a limited ceiling, and he ultimately projects for mediocre to average power with decent on-base percentages. If he can find a way to stick at shortstop, he may be able to start in the long run, but that's not a given and that utility infielder path is by far his most likely one. The fact that he's 6'3" and does have that competency for the game does give him the chance to outplay his current projection and end up as something more. He signed for $495,000, which was $2,500 below slot, and he's slashing .281/.351/.438 with a home run and a 2/4 strikeout to walk ratio over eight games between the Arizona League and short season Salem-Keizer.
5-146: 1B Garrett Frechette (Orange Lutheran HS [CA], unranked)
Garrett Frechette grew up in San Diego and originally enrolled at Cathedral Catholic High School, famous for producing 2014 first overall pick Brady Aiken, but he moved up to the LA area for his senior year so he could be a part of the prestigious Orange Lutheran High School program that produced 2011 first overall pick Gerrit Cole (after he went on to UCLA). Frechette's calling card is his bat, but unfortunately, he wasn't quite able to show it off at its full potential this year. He battled a few nagging injuries as well as a bout with mono, and he ultimately did not perform the way scouts were hoping he would. Still, he's 6'3" and shows a quick, strong, left handed swing that produces good power when he's on, and it's easy to love a quick swing with power. Because he's mediocre with the glove and will be confined to first base or left field, the Giants are banking on his bat coming alive with pro coaching and refinement as well as just consistent reps on the field. Committed to San Diego State, he instead signed for $797,500, which was $425,900 above slot, and he's slashing .333/.362/.407 with an 11/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 games in the Arizona League.
6-176: SS Dilan Rosario (Leadership Christian HS [PR], unranked)
Dilan Rosario, like Frechette, comes with a lot of questions with his bat, though that's where the similarities end. The Puerto Rican high schooler has quick hands, but his bat path is somewhat long and causes his hit tool to play down towards average, and at this point he's not strong enough to hit for much power. That's not a very promising outlook for his bat, but the Giants will hope to shorten his swing and get him more directly to the ball, where the 6'2" shortstop can then let whatever power he has come naturally. Defensively, he's very competent and has a good shot to stick at shortstop, and if he's forced off the position, he should still be a plus defender at second or third base. That will buy the bat time, and if he can stick at short, he has a chance to start as a line drive, bottom of the lineup guy, though the more likely outcome is utility infielder. Rosario was committed to Southern California but signed away for $650,000, which was $368,200 above slot, and he's slashing .238/.269/.524 with four home runs and a 29/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 16 games in the Arizona League. Honestly, complex level statistics don't mean much, but he has still hit for much more power than expected, though that strikeout to walk ratio is a bit scary.
11-326: RHP Trevor McDonald (George County HS [MS], unranked)
Here's a sleeper for you. Trevor McDonald comes from the small town of Lucedale, Mississippi, about halfway between Hattiesburg and Mobile, Alabama, but he's yet another top prospect to come out of George County High School's regionally famous baseball program. McDonald sits in the low 90's with his fastball and has an incredibly loose arm that could easily add some velocity as he gets stronger, and he also adds three inconsistent but present secondary pitches at this point. His slider is the most advanced at this point, but his aptitude for pitching should help him develop all three as well as his command. On the flip side, he's not the most projectable guy with a skinny 6'2" frame, and he has yet to prove his durability at this point. There's a lot of upside here and that's why the Giants signed McDonald away from a South Alabama commitment for $800,000, which counts for $675,000 against their bonus pool.
35-1046: SS Brooks Lee (San Luis Obispo HS [CA], my rank: 41)
As you would expect, Brooks Lee did not sign here, and he'll instead attend Cal Poly and play for his dad in the Mustangs baseball program. Lee's a very interesting prospect and a good spring pushed him into the fringes of the first round discussion and certainly into the competitive balance round discussion, but ultimately he was not signable. The San Luis Obispo native has excellent feel for the game, and it shows on both sides of the ball with his knack for finding the barrel and his consistency in the infield. On the flip side, his swing sucks, to be frank, as he often gets choppy with it and/or leaks out over his front foot, sapping his power. That makes it all the more impressive that he performed well against elite competition on the showcase circuit, and he smooths out his swing either at Cal Poly or in pro ball down the line, he could have a true plus hit tool. He's 6'1" and it remains to be seen how much power comes out of it, though you never know with mechanical changes. Defensively, he's competent enough to handle shortstop, but his athleticism is a little stretched there and he may end up at third base, where he would be a plus defender.
38-1136: RHP Will Rigney (Midway HS [TX], my rank: 94)
Like Lee, Will Rigney will attend his hometown college rather than signing with the Giants, in this case Baylor. Rigney wasn't quite as highly touted as Lee, instead projecting more as an early Day Two pick, but he has high upside as well. The Waco-area native sits in the low 90's with his fastball and shows an inconsistent slider that can flash true plus, and at 6'5", he's plenty projectable enough to add more velocity. He also uses his big frame to get good angle on the ball, and his command is currently average. However, he fell because a forearm injury kept him out for most of the spring, and if not handled right (or even when handled right), those things can lead to Tommy John surgery. We'll have to see how his health holds up at Baylor, but if he does indeed come back healthy, he could get more consistent with that slider and add a changeup and emerge as a potential first round pick.
Also notable: Dilan Rosario (6-176), Trevor McDonald (11-326), Brooks Lee (35-1046), Will Rigney (38-1136)
The Giants employed an interesting draft strategy here, grabbing two elite college bats in the first two rounds before signing a bunch of overslot high schoolers with the $1.1 million they saved on those first two picks. Those two bats, Hunter Bishop and Logan Wyatt, have a chance to make up the middle of their order for years to come, then they got plenty of upside later on. I particularly see massively overslot eleventh rounder Trevor McDonald, who signed for almost as much as Wyatt, as a sleeper to keep an eye on.
1-10: OF Hunter Bishop (Arizona State, my rank: 10)
Hunter Bishop was projected to possibly go a couple of slots higher, so the Giants were ecstatic when the hometown kid fell to them at pick number ten. Bishop grew up in San Mateo and went to Junipero Serra High School, where he was considered a potential top five round pick and ranked 106th on my list. Instead, he packed it up and went to Arizona State, where he hit just .250/.352/.407 as a sophomore and then .233/.369/.350 with four home runs in 39 games in the elite Cape Cod League. However, he put everything together in a huge way in 2019, slashing .342/.479/.748 with 22 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 61/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games for the Sun Devils. Bishop more than quadrupled his home run output while cutting his strikeout rate from 30.3% to 21.8% and bumping his walk rate from 10.9% to 17.9%. He produces a ton of torque with his 6'5" frame, and the fact that he was able to improve his plate discipline so dramatically while adding all that power speaks volumes to the legitimacy of his breakout. However, he slashed just .264/.395/.529 with a 38/24 strikeout to walk ratio in conference games, combining with his swing and miss to lead to questions as to just how well his bat will profile at the next level. Despite his size, he's a good defender and may be able to handle center field, and he should be above average in left or right field. Overall, he has a ceiling of 30+ home runs and solid on-base percentages, though he's could become more of a 20-25 home run guy with middling on-base percentages if his swing and miss questions catch up to him. He signed for $4.1 million, which was $640,000 below slot, and he is slashing .250/.375/.550 with a home run and an 11/4 strikeout to walk ratio through six games in the complex level Arizona League.
2-51: 1B Logan Wyatt (Louisville, my rank: 27)
I really like this pick. I always thought Logan Wyatt was being underrated throughout the lead-up to the draft, and the Giants are going to get borderline first round/comp round value here in the second round (for a third round price tag). Wyatt didn't play much during his freshman year at Louisville but followed a big sophomore season with another big junior season this year, where he slashed .283/.445/.449 with nine home runs and a 48/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games, a late season slump dragging down his numbers a bit. Despite the late season slump, I believe in Wyatt's bat. At 6'4", 230 pounds, he's built like a slugger, and he actually slashed .304/.421/.571 in conference play in a tough ACC, as well as .305/.458/.438 with four home runs and more walks (29) than strikeouts (24) on the Cape, which is where my enthusiasm comes from. The kid from just outside of Louisville has an excellent eye at the plate that both helped him perform so well in the ACC as well as on the Cape, and it will continue to help him in pro ball. However, his power plays only average for now, and as a first baseman with little defensive value, that won't cut it in the long run. He has the eye to continue to find the barrel consistently even if the Giants change his swing to help him hit for more power, and with all the walks he draws (21.2% this year), he could be a 20-25 home run hitter with solidly high on-base percentages. However, he did slump at the end of the season and the pressure will be on the bat to develop. He signed for $997,500, which was $442,500 below slot, and he is slashing .450/.500/.500 with three strikeouts to three walks through six games in the Arizona League.
3-87: OF Grant McCray (Lakewood Ranch HS [FL], unranked)
Grant McCray's stock has been rising steadily throughout the spring as he begins to manifest his high upside. He's still very raw, but he's also very athletic and possesses the plus speed that scouts love. That athleticism also plays into his other parts of his game, as he uses his strength to generate leverage on the ball and hit for some power, with possible 20 homer pop in the tank. The Tampa-area high schooler won't move quickly, but he has the chance to develop a power/speed combination that is hard to come by. As a fun aside, his father, Rodney McCray, is famous for crashing through the outfield wall in a 1991 minor league game in Portland and played parts of three seasons in the majors with the White Sox and Mets. Grant signed away from a Florida State commitment for $697,500, which was $8,200 above slot, and he's slashing .206/.365/.265 with a 23/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games in the Arizona League.
4-116: SS Tyler Fitzgerald (Louisville, unranked)
65 picks after grabbing Louisville first baseman Logan Wyatt in the second round, the Giants went back to the Cardinals' infield and took shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald in the fourth round. Fitzgerald was a highly regarded recruit who ranked #116 on my 2016 list while in high school near Springfield, Illinois, but he took some time to adjust to college ball and hit just .208/.303/.272 as a freshman and .264/.344/.378 as a sophomore. However, he figured it out as a junior, slashing .315/.391/.483 with eight home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 50/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games, and that came on the heels of a .298/.370/.415 line over 43 Cape Cod League games. He doesn't stand out in any facet of the game, but he knows how to play and has hit well both on the Cape and in the ACC, so he has a high floor as a utility infielder. However, given his lack of loud skills, he also has a limited ceiling, and he ultimately projects for mediocre to average power with decent on-base percentages. If he can find a way to stick at shortstop, he may be able to start in the long run, but that's not a given and that utility infielder path is by far his most likely one. The fact that he's 6'3" and does have that competency for the game does give him the chance to outplay his current projection and end up as something more. He signed for $495,000, which was $2,500 below slot, and he's slashing .281/.351/.438 with a home run and a 2/4 strikeout to walk ratio over eight games between the Arizona League and short season Salem-Keizer.
5-146: 1B Garrett Frechette (Orange Lutheran HS [CA], unranked)
Garrett Frechette grew up in San Diego and originally enrolled at Cathedral Catholic High School, famous for producing 2014 first overall pick Brady Aiken, but he moved up to the LA area for his senior year so he could be a part of the prestigious Orange Lutheran High School program that produced 2011 first overall pick Gerrit Cole (after he went on to UCLA). Frechette's calling card is his bat, but unfortunately, he wasn't quite able to show it off at its full potential this year. He battled a few nagging injuries as well as a bout with mono, and he ultimately did not perform the way scouts were hoping he would. Still, he's 6'3" and shows a quick, strong, left handed swing that produces good power when he's on, and it's easy to love a quick swing with power. Because he's mediocre with the glove and will be confined to first base or left field, the Giants are banking on his bat coming alive with pro coaching and refinement as well as just consistent reps on the field. Committed to San Diego State, he instead signed for $797,500, which was $425,900 above slot, and he's slashing .333/.362/.407 with an 11/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 games in the Arizona League.
6-176: SS Dilan Rosario (Leadership Christian HS [PR], unranked)
Dilan Rosario, like Frechette, comes with a lot of questions with his bat, though that's where the similarities end. The Puerto Rican high schooler has quick hands, but his bat path is somewhat long and causes his hit tool to play down towards average, and at this point he's not strong enough to hit for much power. That's not a very promising outlook for his bat, but the Giants will hope to shorten his swing and get him more directly to the ball, where the 6'2" shortstop can then let whatever power he has come naturally. Defensively, he's very competent and has a good shot to stick at shortstop, and if he's forced off the position, he should still be a plus defender at second or third base. That will buy the bat time, and if he can stick at short, he has a chance to start as a line drive, bottom of the lineup guy, though the more likely outcome is utility infielder. Rosario was committed to Southern California but signed away for $650,000, which was $368,200 above slot, and he's slashing .238/.269/.524 with four home runs and a 29/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 16 games in the Arizona League. Honestly, complex level statistics don't mean much, but he has still hit for much more power than expected, though that strikeout to walk ratio is a bit scary.
11-326: RHP Trevor McDonald (George County HS [MS], unranked)
Here's a sleeper for you. Trevor McDonald comes from the small town of Lucedale, Mississippi, about halfway between Hattiesburg and Mobile, Alabama, but he's yet another top prospect to come out of George County High School's regionally famous baseball program. McDonald sits in the low 90's with his fastball and has an incredibly loose arm that could easily add some velocity as he gets stronger, and he also adds three inconsistent but present secondary pitches at this point. His slider is the most advanced at this point, but his aptitude for pitching should help him develop all three as well as his command. On the flip side, he's not the most projectable guy with a skinny 6'2" frame, and he has yet to prove his durability at this point. There's a lot of upside here and that's why the Giants signed McDonald away from a South Alabama commitment for $800,000, which counts for $675,000 against their bonus pool.
35-1046: SS Brooks Lee (San Luis Obispo HS [CA], my rank: 41)
As you would expect, Brooks Lee did not sign here, and he'll instead attend Cal Poly and play for his dad in the Mustangs baseball program. Lee's a very interesting prospect and a good spring pushed him into the fringes of the first round discussion and certainly into the competitive balance round discussion, but ultimately he was not signable. The San Luis Obispo native has excellent feel for the game, and it shows on both sides of the ball with his knack for finding the barrel and his consistency in the infield. On the flip side, his swing sucks, to be frank, as he often gets choppy with it and/or leaks out over his front foot, sapping his power. That makes it all the more impressive that he performed well against elite competition on the showcase circuit, and he smooths out his swing either at Cal Poly or in pro ball down the line, he could have a true plus hit tool. He's 6'1" and it remains to be seen how much power comes out of it, though you never know with mechanical changes. Defensively, he's competent enough to handle shortstop, but his athleticism is a little stretched there and he may end up at third base, where he would be a plus defender.
38-1136: RHP Will Rigney (Midway HS [TX], my rank: 94)
Like Lee, Will Rigney will attend his hometown college rather than signing with the Giants, in this case Baylor. Rigney wasn't quite as highly touted as Lee, instead projecting more as an early Day Two pick, but he has high upside as well. The Waco-area native sits in the low 90's with his fastball and shows an inconsistent slider that can flash true plus, and at 6'5", he's plenty projectable enough to add more velocity. He also uses his big frame to get good angle on the ball, and his command is currently average. However, he fell because a forearm injury kept him out for most of the spring, and if not handled right (or even when handled right), those things can lead to Tommy John surgery. We'll have to see how his health holds up at Baylor, but if he does indeed come back healthy, he could get more consistent with that slider and add a changeup and emerge as a potential first round pick.
Monday, May 13, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: First Basemen
This is more of a preliminary list of first basemen, as many current third basemen (Josh Jung, Kody Hoese, Drew Mendoza, Rece Hinds, etc.) could be forced across the diamond as pressure mounts on their glove-work. Once a player ends up at first, the pressure is immediately on the bat to perform because most of these guys aren't providing much value defensively. That said, there is a group of first basemen in this class that can really hit, and it's led by California's Andrew Vaughn, one of the best hitters in recent draft memory. Behind him, everyone else has questions about something, whether contact, power, or both, but all carry potent bats with high upside.
Tier I: Andrew Vaughn
The Cal slugger stands alone in the first tier. Andrew Vaughn is as good as it gets at the plate, following up his monster sophomore season (23 HR, .402/.531/.819, 18/44 K/BB) with a big junior season, slashing .374/.530/712 with 14 home runs and a 28/50 strikeout to walk ratio through 46 games (including .318/.465/.580 with five home runs in 24 games against a tough in-conference schedule). Vaughn is incredibly disciplined at the plate, walking just about twice as often as he strikes out and putting himself in a great position to handle higher level pitching. That helps him get to his big raw power often, as he has cracked 49 home runs over 154 games at Cal, slugging .690 along the way. Vaughn looks like a fairly safe bet to be a middle of the order masher, which should alleviate any concerns over his lack of defensive value. He figures to go either to the White Sox with the third pick or the Marlins with the fourth pick, with a small chance he falls to the Tigers at #5 or Padres at #6.
Tier II: Michael Busch, Logan Wyatt, Tyler Callihan
After Vaughn, we are unlikely to see another first baseman taken until the back half of the first round. There, three more bats come into play, though each has their share of question marks. UNC's Michael Busch followed up a big sophomore season (13 HR, .317/.465/.521, 30/55 K/BB) with a strong run through the Cape Cod League (6 HR, .322/.450/.567, 17/19 K/BB), then came out and slashed .285/.447/.543 with 12 home runs and a 34/50 strikeout to walk ratio through his first 51 games this season. Busch showcases big raw power with a keen eye at the plate, and that advanced plate discipline helped drive his performance on the Cape. Mechanically, he keeps his hands back well, but sometimes they look like they take a little bit too long to get going, which could lead to swing and miss concerns at the next level. Still, he has a very strong track record to stand on, and he could fit into the second half of the first round as a potential high on-base, home run-hitting producer, albeit with a bit more risk than Vaughn. Meanwhile, Louisville's Logan Wyatt has a fairly similar profile to Busch, showing a better present approach at the plate with a bit less power. After slashing .339/.490/.522 with six home runs and a 37/63 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, he hit well on the Cape (4 HR, .305/.458/.438, 24/29 K/BB) and has been strong during his junior season, slashing .304/.472/.508 with eight home runs and a 36/57 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. Wyatt, like Vaughn, has an exceptional feel for the strike zone that should have no problem playing up at the next level, and while his power has played closer to average at Louisville, he has started to add some loft to his swing and could his his 6'4" frame to eventually hit 20-30 home runs per season. Given that Busch looks on track to land in that range as well, I actually prefer Wyatt as a prospect and would draft him before his ACC rival. That looks unlikely to happen, though, and Wyatt probably fits somewhere in the comp round in the 30-40 range. Tyler Callihan, a high schooler from Jacksonville, is actually a third baseman at this point, but I include him here due to the lack of present-first basemen and the strong possibility that he is forced across the diamond. Callihan stands just 5'11", small for a corner infielder, but he has great feel for the barrel and consistently sprays line drives and extra base hits around the field. The South Carolina commit also generates a fair amount of loft and torque in his swing, giving him the chance to turn those doubles into home runs down the line, and he's a better contact hitter (relative to his age) than Busch and possibly Wyatt at this point. He also may be able to stick at third base, where there would be less pressure for him to develop power. Like Wyatt, he figures to go somewhere in the comp round or early second round.
Tier III: Spencer Jones, Michael Toglia, Spencer Brickhouse
The third tier of guys obviously come with their own set of questions, all showing the tools to be impact hitters at the next level but but also having holes in their profile. Southern California high schooler Spencer Jones has one of the more unique profiles in this class, as he is the top two-way player in the draft and could very realistically, even likely, be drafted as a pitcher. Additionally, he opened enough eyes over the summer to earn some first round buzz, but an elbow injury (not Tommy John) cost him his whole spring, and he's really all projection and not much track record at this point. Standing 6'7", he generates a lot of power from the left side and made pretty good contact over the summer, giving him a ton of upside at the plate if he were to give up hitting and focus solely on improving and getting to that power. However, without much of a track record, it may be difficult for teams to pay enough money to keep him away from his Vanderbilt commitment. It's hard to project where he'll be drafted, but he currently looks like a second rounder based on talent alone. Over at UCLA, Michael Toglia has been right in the middle of a Bruins lineup that has powered the team to the top of the college baseball world (so far), though his numbers are down a hair from his sophomore season. After slashing .336/.449/.588 with 11 home runs and a 60/48 strikeout to walk ratio in 2018, he's down to .303/.374/.585 with 11 home runs and a 51/20 strikeout to walk ratio through 49 games in 2019. He has a simple swing (from both sides of the plate) with some loft that should help him continue to produce at the next level, but he also lacks the strong plate discipline that has pushed Busch and Wyatt into first round consideration. That led to a more pedestrian .209/.323/.388 line with seven home runs on the Cape, though switch hitters do take longer to develop sometimes and Toglia also won't be 21 until August, making him one of the younger college players available. He looks like a second rounder at this point with the potential to hit 20-30 home runs in the majors with middling on-base percentages – a classic #5 hitter. Lastly, despite there being more draft buzz around his teammate Bryant Packard coming into the season, Spencer Brickhouse has led the East Carolina offense by slashing .333/.473/.648 with 12 home runs and a 36/37 strikeout to walk ratio through 46 games. Standing at 6'4", he uses a simple swing and quick wrists to drive the ball into the gaps and over fences, though his low and wide setup at the plate sometimes causes the bat path to get a little long. He has solid plate discipline working in his favor and he has produced in college ball, so he shout fit somewhere into rounds three through five.
Others: Andrew Daschbach, Jason Hodges, Henry Gargus, Garrett Frechette, Joe Naranjo
Tier I: Andrew Vaughn
The Cal slugger stands alone in the first tier. Andrew Vaughn is as good as it gets at the plate, following up his monster sophomore season (23 HR, .402/.531/.819, 18/44 K/BB) with a big junior season, slashing .374/.530/712 with 14 home runs and a 28/50 strikeout to walk ratio through 46 games (including .318/.465/.580 with five home runs in 24 games against a tough in-conference schedule). Vaughn is incredibly disciplined at the plate, walking just about twice as often as he strikes out and putting himself in a great position to handle higher level pitching. That helps him get to his big raw power often, as he has cracked 49 home runs over 154 games at Cal, slugging .690 along the way. Vaughn looks like a fairly safe bet to be a middle of the order masher, which should alleviate any concerns over his lack of defensive value. He figures to go either to the White Sox with the third pick or the Marlins with the fourth pick, with a small chance he falls to the Tigers at #5 or Padres at #6.
Tier II: Michael Busch, Logan Wyatt, Tyler Callihan
After Vaughn, we are unlikely to see another first baseman taken until the back half of the first round. There, three more bats come into play, though each has their share of question marks. UNC's Michael Busch followed up a big sophomore season (13 HR, .317/.465/.521, 30/55 K/BB) with a strong run through the Cape Cod League (6 HR, .322/.450/.567, 17/19 K/BB), then came out and slashed .285/.447/.543 with 12 home runs and a 34/50 strikeout to walk ratio through his first 51 games this season. Busch showcases big raw power with a keen eye at the plate, and that advanced plate discipline helped drive his performance on the Cape. Mechanically, he keeps his hands back well, but sometimes they look like they take a little bit too long to get going, which could lead to swing and miss concerns at the next level. Still, he has a very strong track record to stand on, and he could fit into the second half of the first round as a potential high on-base, home run-hitting producer, albeit with a bit more risk than Vaughn. Meanwhile, Louisville's Logan Wyatt has a fairly similar profile to Busch, showing a better present approach at the plate with a bit less power. After slashing .339/.490/.522 with six home runs and a 37/63 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, he hit well on the Cape (4 HR, .305/.458/.438, 24/29 K/BB) and has been strong during his junior season, slashing .304/.472/.508 with eight home runs and a 36/57 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. Wyatt, like Vaughn, has an exceptional feel for the strike zone that should have no problem playing up at the next level, and while his power has played closer to average at Louisville, he has started to add some loft to his swing and could his his 6'4" frame to eventually hit 20-30 home runs per season. Given that Busch looks on track to land in that range as well, I actually prefer Wyatt as a prospect and would draft him before his ACC rival. That looks unlikely to happen, though, and Wyatt probably fits somewhere in the comp round in the 30-40 range. Tyler Callihan, a high schooler from Jacksonville, is actually a third baseman at this point, but I include him here due to the lack of present-first basemen and the strong possibility that he is forced across the diamond. Callihan stands just 5'11", small for a corner infielder, but he has great feel for the barrel and consistently sprays line drives and extra base hits around the field. The South Carolina commit also generates a fair amount of loft and torque in his swing, giving him the chance to turn those doubles into home runs down the line, and he's a better contact hitter (relative to his age) than Busch and possibly Wyatt at this point. He also may be able to stick at third base, where there would be less pressure for him to develop power. Like Wyatt, he figures to go somewhere in the comp round or early second round.
Tier III: Spencer Jones, Michael Toglia, Spencer Brickhouse
The third tier of guys obviously come with their own set of questions, all showing the tools to be impact hitters at the next level but but also having holes in their profile. Southern California high schooler Spencer Jones has one of the more unique profiles in this class, as he is the top two-way player in the draft and could very realistically, even likely, be drafted as a pitcher. Additionally, he opened enough eyes over the summer to earn some first round buzz, but an elbow injury (not Tommy John) cost him his whole spring, and he's really all projection and not much track record at this point. Standing 6'7", he generates a lot of power from the left side and made pretty good contact over the summer, giving him a ton of upside at the plate if he were to give up hitting and focus solely on improving and getting to that power. However, without much of a track record, it may be difficult for teams to pay enough money to keep him away from his Vanderbilt commitment. It's hard to project where he'll be drafted, but he currently looks like a second rounder based on talent alone. Over at UCLA, Michael Toglia has been right in the middle of a Bruins lineup that has powered the team to the top of the college baseball world (so far), though his numbers are down a hair from his sophomore season. After slashing .336/.449/.588 with 11 home runs and a 60/48 strikeout to walk ratio in 2018, he's down to .303/.374/.585 with 11 home runs and a 51/20 strikeout to walk ratio through 49 games in 2019. He has a simple swing (from both sides of the plate) with some loft that should help him continue to produce at the next level, but he also lacks the strong plate discipline that has pushed Busch and Wyatt into first round consideration. That led to a more pedestrian .209/.323/.388 line with seven home runs on the Cape, though switch hitters do take longer to develop sometimes and Toglia also won't be 21 until August, making him one of the younger college players available. He looks like a second rounder at this point with the potential to hit 20-30 home runs in the majors with middling on-base percentages – a classic #5 hitter. Lastly, despite there being more draft buzz around his teammate Bryant Packard coming into the season, Spencer Brickhouse has led the East Carolina offense by slashing .333/.473/.648 with 12 home runs and a 36/37 strikeout to walk ratio through 46 games. Standing at 6'4", he uses a simple swing and quick wrists to drive the ball into the gaps and over fences, though his low and wide setup at the plate sometimes causes the bat path to get a little long. He has solid plate discipline working in his favor and he has produced in college ball, so he shout fit somewhere into rounds three through five.
Others: Andrew Daschbach, Jason Hodges, Henry Gargus, Garrett Frechette, Joe Naranjo
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)