The Phillies are on the rise, and despite the slow start to 2016 first overall pick Mickey Moniak's career, so is their farm system. It's a balanced system that features plenty of both power and contact hitters, and the system is especially deep in pitching as they have managed to successfully develop many of their highly regarded arms into legitimate prospects.
Affiliates: AAA Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs, AA Reading Fightin Phils, High A Clearwater Threshers, Class A Lakewood BlueClaws, Short Season Williamsport Crosscutters, complex level GCL and DSL Phillies
The Headliner: RHP Sixto Sanchez
The first time I saw now-20 year old Sixto Sanchez pitch was in 2017 when his Class A Lakewood BlueClaws visited the Orioles' Delmarva Shorebirds. I don't remember the exact velocities, but the first at bat of the game, against the unfortunate Cole Billingsley, went something like this: 98 MPH for strike one, 99 for strike two, 100 just low for ball one, and lastly a disgusting curveball that Billingsley swung over top of for strike three. Sixto was just 18 at the time while Billingsley was 23, and Billingsley did not stand a chance. Sanchez was soon promoted to High A Clearwater, but he had to return there this season as he battled elbow inflammation, still posting a 2.51 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 45/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 46.2 innings. He's just six feet tall and won't even be able to drink legally until July, but he throws his fastball in the mid to upper 90's while adding a very good curveball and changeup, all three of which he can command very well. He can also manipulate his fastball to get movement on it down in the mid 90's range, and the overall package gives him true ace upside. Signed for just $35,000 as a 16 year old out of the Dominican Republic, he has developed a very special right arm that could have made him the top pitching prospect in baseball had he been healthy this season, but he is nonetheless one of the top prospects in the game and should be joining Aaron Nola at the top of the Philadelphia rotation soon.
Drafted Bats: OF Cornelius Randolph, OF Mickey Moniak, OF Adam Haseley, 3B Alec Bohm, OF Dylan Cozens, and OF Matt Vierling
The Phillies have had some high draft picks recently and have used their last four first round picks on bats with mixed results. I'll start in 2015, when they took now-21 year old Cornelius Randolph with their first pick (tenth overall) out of a Georgia high school, and he has been fairly disappointing so far. He was at his best by slashing .250/.338/.402 with 13 home runs at High A Clearwater in 2017, but he dropped to .241/.324/.322 with just five home runs and a 92/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at AA Reading this year. As a so-so defender in left field, his bat is his true calling card, so he'll have to reverse whatever happened in 2018 if he wants to stay relevant as a prospect. At his best, he shows a knack for hard contact, a patient approach, and an overall balanced skill set at the plate, but it hasn't clicked yet for any extended period of time at this point. In 2016, the Phillies selected another outfielder who is off to a slow start, first overall pick and now-20 year old Mickey Moniak. After a mediocre 2017 (5 HR, .236/.284/.341 at Class A Lakewood), he put up only slightly better numbers in 2018 by slashing .270/.304/.383 with five more home runs and a 100/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Clearwater. Fortunately for Phillies fans, Moniak heated up in the second half after slashing .254/.272/.321 with a 56/5 strikeout to walk ratio in the first half, moving that up to a .286/.332/.442 line and a 44/17 ratio after the break. He's skinny at 6'2" but doesn't look like he has much room to add more weight, his speed being his best tool. At the plate, he's more of a line drive/gap hitter than a power hitter, and while it's increasingly unlikely that he develops more than average pop, I still think there is a chance he can be an above average hitter both when it comes to getting on base and hitting for power. Defensively he may be able to stick in center field, his work ethic and feel for the game helping him in that regard. Don't expect a future star out of Moniak at this point, but he could still be a productive big league regular if he gets back on track. Now-22 year old Adam Haseley was the Phillies' first round pick (eighth overall) in 2017, and unlike Randolph and Moniak, he has had plenty of success. In 2018, he slashed .305/.361/.433 with 11 home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 73/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at Clearwater and Reading with no loss of production after the promotion, even when accounting for league/ballpark differences (Reading is very hitter friendly; Clearwater and the Florida State League in general, not so much). He is a very balanced player who makes easy contact and rarely gets fooled at the plate, runs well, may be able to stick in center field defensively, and hits for just enough power to justify calling him an "impact bat." His walk rate is fairly low, but that is okay given his low strikeout rate and general knack for base hits. At this point, he has a high floor as a fourth outfielder because even if his development stagnates from here on out, he's good enough today to at least handle major league pitching. This past year, the Phillies took now-22 year old Alec Bohm out of Wichita State with the third overall pick, who then slashed a moderately disappointing .252/.335/.324 with a 23/12 strikeout to walk ratio and without a home run in 40 games between complex ball and short season Williamsport. Small sample slow start aside, Bohm is truly an impact bat who can hit for power while also getting on base at a high rate, giving him middle of the order upside. At 6'5", he can blast balls a long way, and his plate discipline has improved consistently enough that it's easy to envision him adding more power without adding too many strikeouts. Defensively, he has work to do if he wants to stick at third base, but the bat will play even if he is forced to move over to first base and despite the slow start; don't worry about 40 games in complex/short season ball. Moving off of first round picks, 24 year old Dylan Cozens was a second round pick way back in 2012 from high school near Phoenix, and though his trip through the minors has been slow, he's just about ready for the majors. The 6'6" outfielder was long considered a projectable bat who could add a ton of power, then after hitting 38 home runs over his first four pro seasons from 2012-2015, he crushed 40 with (hitter friendly) Reading in 2016 then followed that up with 27 at AAA Lehigh Valley in 2017. This past year, he slashed .246/.345/.529 with 21 home runs and a 124/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games back at Lehigh Valley, then slashed .158/.273/.289 with one home run in a 26 game stint with the Phillies. His raw power is arguably the best in the system, possibly better than that of Bohm and Jhailyn Ortiz (more on Ortiz in the next section), but he strikes out far too much at this point and will have to make adjustments to survive at the major league level. I definitely don't see him as having an Aaron Judge-type breakout (Judge faced the same problems in the minors), but just a small improvement in his contact ability could make him a valuable pinch hitter or platoon bat and a big one (less likely) could make him an every day player down the road. Lastly, 22 year old Matt Vierling was a fifth round pick out of Notre Dame in 2018 who caught fire in the minors and slashed .321/.365/.496 with seven home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 40/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games between Williamsport and Lakewood, handling the promotion to full season ball well and slashing .293/.342/.473 in his 50 games there. He has no standout tool but does a little bit of everything well, showing some power, on-base ability, and speed, as well as a strong arm from the outfield. He's likely a fourth outfielder down the road, but with his balanced skill set, lack of a glaring weakness, and hot start to his minor league career, more certainly is possible.
International Bats: OF Jhailyn Ortiz, 2B Daniel Brito, SS Arquimedes Gamboa, and SS Luis Garcia
The Phillies aren't as deep in bats signed internationally as they are with those they drafted, especially with Jose Gomez's disappointing season in High A, but there are a few bright spots here. 20 year old Jhailyn Ortiz hasn't quite lived up to his $4 million signing bonus from back in 2015, but he's still a solid prospect who slashed .225/.297/.375 with 13 home runs and a 148/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at Class A Lakewood. He packs tremendous raw power into his 6'3" frame, though South Atlantic League pitching found holes in his swing and was able to exploit them in 2018. Defensively, he has worked hard to remain in the outfield, where his strong arm helps him out, but he will have to start getting to his power consistently if he wants to remain one of the Phillies more well-regarded prospects. High A will be a real test in 2019, but he won't turn 21 until after the season and he has a chance to really define himself as a prospect. A tough transition will mean that Phillies fans will have to be patient and play more wait-and-see and I-wonder-if, but a few tweaks in his approach and a good season could take him from projection bat to true impact prospect. 21 year olds Daniel Brito and Arquimedes Gamboa find themselves in similar positions to each other, both coming off seasons where they didn't hit quite as well as hoped in A ball. Brito has the slightly better bat and he slashed .252/.307/.342 with four home runs, 16 stolen bases, and an 83/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at Lakewood and High A Clearwater, while Gamboa, with the better glove, slashed just .214/.304/.279 with two home runs, six stolen bases, and a 111/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games, all at Clearwater. Both lack much power and will have to rely on getting on base to move forward, and both have good enough approaches at the plate that they can realistically get by without power. Brito, a second baseman who has steadily improved his defense and should be above average there, has shown just a little more sock in his bat and probably has a better chance to hit at the major league level, while Gamboa is a good defender at shortstop who will need to do at least something offensively in order to keep moving up. At this point, both look like future utility infielders if they can't get the bats going, but both will also spend the whole season at 21 years old with plenty of A ball experience under their belt. Lastly, 18 year old Luis Garcia (not to be confused with ex-Phillies/now Angels reliever Luis Garcia or highly-regarded Nationals prospect Luis Garcia) was just signed for $2.5 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2017 and spent 2018 in complex ball, slashing .369/.433/.488 with one home run, 12 stolen bases, and a 21/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games with the Phillies' Gulf Coast League affiliate. It was an exceptional debut for a 17 year old who skipped over the Dominican Summer League entirely as he sprayed line drives all over the park, showed great awareness of the strike zone, and played great defense at shortstop. Now, it's very important to take complex level (and even rookie/short season) stats with a grain of salt, as competition in the GCL varies from other Latin American teenagers, recent draftees, and higher-level players on rehab assignments, but you can't play much better than Garcia did and given the high expectations coming into the season, he's in a great spot. At 5'11", he's unlikely to develop much power, but his defense at shortstop will take the pressure off his bat and with his on-base ability, he could be one of the top prospects in the system a year from now.
High Minors Arms: LHP Cole Irvin, LHP Ranger Suarez, RHP Enyel De Los Santos, RHP Drew Anderson, LHP JoJo Romero, and RHP Connor Seabold
The Phillies have a good group of arms that are near-major league ready, and that's a very good thing considering the team is just beginning what it hopes will be a long stretch of contention. Interestingly, most of the pitchers in this group are about command over stuff, so they may end up with an abundance of back-end starters who can be used as trade bait. 24 year old Cole Irvin is the most complete pitcher up at the top, coming off a very strong year where he went 14-4 with a 2.57 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 131/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 161.1 innings at AAA Lehigh Valley. With his low 90's fastball and full arsenal of average pitches from the left side, he has no true out pitch but mixes and locates everything extremely well, making all of his pitches play up and giving him a very good shot at sticking in the majors as a back-end, innings eating starter. He's already in the mix for a back-end spot out of spring training, and if he doesn't get it then, his name should be called upon early in the season. He'll be competing with 23 year old Ranger Suarez, a 6'1" lefty who posted a 2.75 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 85/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 124.1 innings at AA Reading and Lehigh Valley, also adding 15 major league innings with a 5.40 ERA and an 11/6 strikeout to walk ratio. He's a fairly similar pitcher to Irvin who has moved through the minor leagues just as quickly, though his stuff is a hair better and his overall feel for pitching is just a hair behind. Unlike with Irvin, his changeup stands out among his other pitches and it, rather than an excellent feel for pitching like Irvin's, makes his other pitches play up. His command is just as good as Irvin's and it will be interesting to see who can hang on to that back-end spot, if not both. 23 year old Enyel De Los Santos, over from San Diego in the Freddy Galvis trade, is a different pitcher from both Irvin and Suarez and posted a 2.63 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 110/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 126.2 innings at Lehigh Valley as well as a 4.74 ERA and a 15/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 major league innings. He's a 6'3" righty whose fastball sits in the mid 90's and who adds a good changeup, but while Irvin and Suarez get by on their command, De Los Santos is closer to average in that regard. When he's hitting his spots, he can be a better pitcher than both, but of course the opposite is true when he isn't. He also comes with more reliever risk, but his stuff would play up in the bullpen and he could be very valuable in that regard. Watching the three of them battle for starts will be very interesting in 2019. 24 year old Drew Anderson is also in that mix, though I think he'll be the first of the four to end up in the bullpen after posting a 3.87 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an 84/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 104.2 innings at Lehigh Valley this year. He has a low to mid 90's fastball plays up because of its movement, but he otherwise has fringe-average stuff that he controls pretty well. Despite the extra velocity, he's not quite on the same tier as Irvin and Suarez in terms of control types because his arsenal is not as deep and he hasn't been able to stay on the mound as consistently, but I think he could do well in the bullpen as soon as this season. Lastly, 22 year old JoJo Romero put himself firmly on the map with a huge 2017 in A ball (2.16 ERA, 128/36 K/BB) and followed that up with a solid run through AA in 2018, posting a 3.80 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 100/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 106.2 innings with Reading. He's listed closer to the end of this section because he probably won't be major league ready straight out of spring training, but it is plausible that he ends up with the best career in the group. While he has no single standout swing and miss pitch, he can throw pretty much any pitch in the book but a knuckleball, giving him plenty of weapons to use in any count and any situation, and unlike many young pitchers with such deep arsenals, he commands everything pretty well. The six foot lefty is crafty and has a very nice combination of ceiling and floor, and he has mid-rotation upside if he can stay healthy and maintain his ability to hit his spots with all of his pitches. 23 year old Connor Seabold is a control type who posted a 4.28 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 132/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.1 innings at High A Clearwater and Reading, keeping runners off the bases but also falling victim to the home run ball when he missed his spots in AA. Though his ERA jumped from 3.77 in High A to 4.91 in AA, he continued to be effective and even upped his strikeout rate from 23.8% to 25.5%, a modest jump but impressive nonetheless considering he was just drafted out of Cal State Fullerton in the third round (83rd overall) in 2017. Like Irvin, none of his pitches stand out, but he hits his spots consistently enough that hitters don't get many mistakes to try to do something with. He has back-end potential.
Low and Mid Minors Arms: RHP Kyle Dohy, RHP Adonis Medina, LHP David Parkinson, LHP Will Stewart, LHP Kyle Young, and RHP Francisco Morales
While most of the upper-minors pitchers are advanced control-types who get by more on instincts than stuff, there's more variation in the guys who aren't quite as close to the major leagues. In this group, Sixto Sanchez aside, 22 year old Kyle Dohy is the closest to the majors in this group, and he put up a crazy season statistically with a 2.54 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 111/42 strikeout to walk ratio over just 67.1 innings at Class A Lakewood, High A Clearwater, and AA Reading. He's a 6'2" left handed reliever with a great fastball/slider combination that misses bats in bunches and helped him strike out 40.7% of those he faced in 2018 (including 47.7% over 33.2 innings at Lakewood). However, his stuff also misses the strike zone as often as it misses bats, and he walked 15.4% of his opponents this year including 21.8% over his 22.2 innings at Reading. If he gets his command closer to average, he could be in the major leagues as soon as 2019, and in the long run he could be a very useful bullpen arm in Philadelphia. However, if he can't start at least getting close to hitting his spots, his stuff isn't quite electric enough to keep him from getting shelled in the major leagues. 22 year old Adonis Medina made it up to Clearwater in 2018 and posted a 4.12 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 123/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.1 innings, which was not quite the breakout season the Phillies were hoping for out of their young righty but still solid. He throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's and adds solid secondary stuff in a slider and a changeup, and they along with his command have been sharp enough for him to post very good component ratios in A ball over the past two seasons. As it stands, he looks like a guy with mid-rotation upside and a larger possibility of ending up in the back-end of the rotation, but the Phillies are high on him and think he has a very good shot of reaching his ceiling. 2019 and his transition to AA should be enlightening. 23 year old David Parkinson absolutely dominated A ball in 2018, going 11-1 with a 1.45 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 141/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 124.1 innings at Lakewood and Clearwater, though most of the season was spent facing younger competition down in Lakewood. The 2017 12th round pick out of Ole Miss made his average stuff play up in his first full pro season, and he has a much better chance to stick as a back-end starter than he did a year ago. The strong stint with Clearwater (1.24 ERA, 26/9 K/BB in 29 IP) was probably better news than the equally strong 95.1 innings in Lakewood considering his age relative to his competition, but it will be important to see if his stuff holds up over a longer run through High A and in AA this coming season to really feel confident about his future as a starter. 21 year old Will Stewart also had a dominating run through Lakewood, going 8-1 with a 2.06 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 90/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.2 innings. He's more of a sleeper prospect as a lefty without a ton of velocity, a high draft pedigree (20th round out of high school in Alabama in 2015), or a quick rise through the minors. Still, he makes his good command of a low 90's fastball and a very good changeup work for him, and because he was young for his class when he was drafted, he's not behind age-wise even though he didn't reach full season ball until his fourth pro season. The Phillies do very well with these types of guys (see Cole Irvin, Ranger Suarez, Connor Seabold up higher in the system) and while he looks more like a back-end starter right now, he could be a more well-known name come next season with success in High A. 21 year old Kyle Young posted a 2.73 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 50/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.1 innings mostly with Lakewood, and he's particularly interesting because he's just so darn tall. Standing 6'10" and coming at hitters from the left side, he throws fastballs that look like they're getting released right in front of your face and commands everything well for someone of his stature. While he doesn't throw as hard as a certain other 6'10" lefty (see Johnson, Randy), that command gives him a leg up and could make him a similar pitcher to right hander Chris Young (no relation). Injury risk is present though as he missed time in 2018 with elbow trouble, and personally there are quite a few other pitchers in this system that I see as better prospects. Lastly, 19 year old Francisco Morales doesn't quite have the numbers yet, but he's a high upside guy down in the low minors. The 6'4" righty posted a 5.27 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP, and a 68/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.1 innings with short season Williamsport in 2018, showing a low to mid 90's fastball and emerging secondary stuff. There is a lot he needs to work on, but the Phillies are high on him and with a big, durable frame, they see more velocity coming, with further improving his command and secondaries being the next lines on the to-do list. Think of him as a wild card for now, but he'll be interesting to track as a teenager in Class A next season.
Showing posts with label Adam Haseley. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Adam Haseley. Show all posts
Saturday, January 26, 2019
Monday, July 3, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Philadelphia Phillies
First 5 rounds: Adam Haseley (1-8), Spencer Howard (2-45), Connor Seabold (3-83), Jake Scheiner (4-113), Ethan Lindow (5-143)
Also notable: Dalton Guthrie (6-173), Jake Holmes (11-323), David Parkinson (12-353), Colby Fitch (13-383), Shane Drohan (23-683), Quincy Nieporte (26-773), Kyle Hurt (34-1013)
The Phillies decided to play the overslot/underslot game, going overslot with their first pick, followed by three straight underslot picks, back to overslot with the fifth pick, and skipping an unsigned sixth rounder, three straight underslot to close out the first ten rounds. From the 11th to the 16th rounds, they dipped $575,000 overslot into their bonus pool. Let's look out how their strategy played out.
1-8: OF Adam Haseley (my rank: 7)
This is a great pick for the Phillies. Coming into the season, Haseley was a two-way prospect, but he was so good with the bat this spring (.390/.491/.659, 14 HR in a pitchers' park) that everyone pretty much forgot about his pitching. He's an extremely advanced bat, one that has the ability to hit for above average power and get on base at a high clip at the major league level once he gets there. If he's developed right, I even think there is more power to come, and Haseley could legitimately be a 30 HR/.300 AVG/.400 OBP type of player in a best-case scenario. While he won't be Billy Hamilton in center field, he's athletic enough to handle the middle spot and could have quite a few All Star Games in his future. Haseley signed for $5.1 million, which is $319,600 over slot.
2-45: RHP Spencer Howard (my rank: 106)
The Phillies went underslot with their next pick to counteract the Haseley pick, grabbing a solid arm from Cal Poly. Howard walked onto the team last year, then dominated as a draft-eligible sophomore this year, going 8-1 with a 1.95 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, striking out 97 over 87.2 innings. His fastball has jumped to the low to mid 90's, and he has a hard if inconsistent slider that helps generate swings and misses. He also throws a changeup, giving him the chance to start if the Phillies decide to be patient, but his stuff will probably play up in the bullpen and he could be quicker to the big leagues that way. Howard signed for $1.15 million, which is $373,800 under slot.
3-83: RHP Connor Seabold (unranked)
The Cal State Fullerton ace enjoyed a dominant three year career for the Titans, going 23-15 with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 56 games (42 starts), striking out 294 in 280 innings. He's not all that different from former Titan ace and current Phillies prospect Thomas Eshelman, as Seabold sits in the high 80's and low 90's, but he has excellent command. He also throws a curveball and a changeup, but neither are particularly exciting, so his control will have to hold up as he moves through the ranks. He has a chance to be a back-end starter and signed for $525,000, which is $151,900 below slot.
6-173: 2B Dalton Guthrie (unranked)
Guthrie was the last cut from my top 150, having come into the season a potential top 50 pick but sliding due to lackluster performance. I wasn't a big fan of his from the beginning, but he's not a bad get here with the 173rd pick. Guthrie placed himself on the radar with a strong sophomore season at Florida, where he slashed .305/.367/.366 but struck out in just 8.1% of his plate appearances. While he did set a career high with four home runs this year, the slash line fell to .273/.349/.356, and his strikeout rate ballooned to 14%, dropping him about 100 spots or more on most draft boards. If he can bring back his command of the strike zone, he could be a solid utility man. He is the only one of the Phillies' first 19 picks that has yet to sign, but that's because his Florida Gators just won the College World Series and he was a bit preoccupied.
11-323: SS Jake Holmes (my rank: 110)
Holmes fell out of the top ten rounds because of signability, not because of a lack of talent, and the Phillies went way overslot to get him here. Holmes is a high-ceiling high school shortstop from Arizona, but he has a lot of work to do to reach his potential. He shows good power potential with the bat, but his swing mechanics need a complete overhaul as he swings down on the ball and generates power by catching it out front. He's also an athletic shortstop, one who should be able to stick at the position going forward, and if all goes right, he could be the next Jimmy Rollins for the Phillies. Holmes signed for $500,000, which is $375,000 over slot.
Others: 4th rounder Jake Scheiner wasn't listed on the BA 500, but the Houston third baseman showed big power potential by slashing .346/.432/.667 with 18 home runs for the Cougars this year, though his 41/27 strikeout to walk ratio was less than ideal. Philadelphia went overslot on 5th rounder Ethan Lindow to lure him away from the University of Alabama-Birmingham, as Lindow can get his fastball into the low 90's with a feel for a breaking ball and a changeup. However, he still needs to prove that he is durable enough to start every fifth day. 12th rounder David Parkinson had a successful two year career at Ole Miss, going 11-6 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over 36 games (23 starts) and striking out 126 in 145 innings. He's a lefty with a running fastball that sits around 90, and with a solid slider, he could be a solid bullpen option. 13th rounder Colby Fitch served as Louisville's starting catcher this year after Will Smith was drafted by the Dodgers off that position last year, and Fitch blasted 11 home runs in his power breakout. However, he also batted just .259, so his .372 on-base percentage was reliant on his 12.2% walk rate. He has a short, powerful swing, but he's likely a back-up catcher if he reaches the majors. 23rd rounder Shane Drohan cracked my top 150 at #118, but he probably won't sign here and will instead attend Florida State. Drohan is a 6'2" lefty with a fastball around 90 and a very good curveball, the latter of which could be his carrying pitch down the road. Solid combination of ceiling and floor for a high schooler. 26th rounder Quincy Nieporte was a big producer as a senior for Florida State this year, slashing .302/.378/.510 with 11 home runs for the Seminoles and striking out in a decently low 12% of his plate appearances. He will have average big league power if he makes it that far, but he turns 23 at the end of July and is physically maxed out as it is. 34th rounder Kyle Hurt ranked 98th on my list, but he'll likely attend Southern Cal with this draft spot. Hurt shows the upside of a big league starter, coming in with a low 90's fastball and a big breaking curveball. He does tip his pitches occasionally by changing his arm slot, and he's already 19, so he has a lot of work to do and will be eligible as a sophomore at USC. There were also some minor makeup questions that are probably best addressed at school rather than in pro ball.
Also notable: Dalton Guthrie (6-173), Jake Holmes (11-323), David Parkinson (12-353), Colby Fitch (13-383), Shane Drohan (23-683), Quincy Nieporte (26-773), Kyle Hurt (34-1013)
The Phillies decided to play the overslot/underslot game, going overslot with their first pick, followed by three straight underslot picks, back to overslot with the fifth pick, and skipping an unsigned sixth rounder, three straight underslot to close out the first ten rounds. From the 11th to the 16th rounds, they dipped $575,000 overslot into their bonus pool. Let's look out how their strategy played out.
1-8: OF Adam Haseley (my rank: 7)
This is a great pick for the Phillies. Coming into the season, Haseley was a two-way prospect, but he was so good with the bat this spring (.390/.491/.659, 14 HR in a pitchers' park) that everyone pretty much forgot about his pitching. He's an extremely advanced bat, one that has the ability to hit for above average power and get on base at a high clip at the major league level once he gets there. If he's developed right, I even think there is more power to come, and Haseley could legitimately be a 30 HR/.300 AVG/.400 OBP type of player in a best-case scenario. While he won't be Billy Hamilton in center field, he's athletic enough to handle the middle spot and could have quite a few All Star Games in his future. Haseley signed for $5.1 million, which is $319,600 over slot.
2-45: RHP Spencer Howard (my rank: 106)
The Phillies went underslot with their next pick to counteract the Haseley pick, grabbing a solid arm from Cal Poly. Howard walked onto the team last year, then dominated as a draft-eligible sophomore this year, going 8-1 with a 1.95 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, striking out 97 over 87.2 innings. His fastball has jumped to the low to mid 90's, and he has a hard if inconsistent slider that helps generate swings and misses. He also throws a changeup, giving him the chance to start if the Phillies decide to be patient, but his stuff will probably play up in the bullpen and he could be quicker to the big leagues that way. Howard signed for $1.15 million, which is $373,800 under slot.
3-83: RHP Connor Seabold (unranked)
The Cal State Fullerton ace enjoyed a dominant three year career for the Titans, going 23-15 with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 56 games (42 starts), striking out 294 in 280 innings. He's not all that different from former Titan ace and current Phillies prospect Thomas Eshelman, as Seabold sits in the high 80's and low 90's, but he has excellent command. He also throws a curveball and a changeup, but neither are particularly exciting, so his control will have to hold up as he moves through the ranks. He has a chance to be a back-end starter and signed for $525,000, which is $151,900 below slot.
6-173: 2B Dalton Guthrie (unranked)
Guthrie was the last cut from my top 150, having come into the season a potential top 50 pick but sliding due to lackluster performance. I wasn't a big fan of his from the beginning, but he's not a bad get here with the 173rd pick. Guthrie placed himself on the radar with a strong sophomore season at Florida, where he slashed .305/.367/.366 but struck out in just 8.1% of his plate appearances. While he did set a career high with four home runs this year, the slash line fell to .273/.349/.356, and his strikeout rate ballooned to 14%, dropping him about 100 spots or more on most draft boards. If he can bring back his command of the strike zone, he could be a solid utility man. He is the only one of the Phillies' first 19 picks that has yet to sign, but that's because his Florida Gators just won the College World Series and he was a bit preoccupied.
11-323: SS Jake Holmes (my rank: 110)
Holmes fell out of the top ten rounds because of signability, not because of a lack of talent, and the Phillies went way overslot to get him here. Holmes is a high-ceiling high school shortstop from Arizona, but he has a lot of work to do to reach his potential. He shows good power potential with the bat, but his swing mechanics need a complete overhaul as he swings down on the ball and generates power by catching it out front. He's also an athletic shortstop, one who should be able to stick at the position going forward, and if all goes right, he could be the next Jimmy Rollins for the Phillies. Holmes signed for $500,000, which is $375,000 over slot.
Others: 4th rounder Jake Scheiner wasn't listed on the BA 500, but the Houston third baseman showed big power potential by slashing .346/.432/.667 with 18 home runs for the Cougars this year, though his 41/27 strikeout to walk ratio was less than ideal. Philadelphia went overslot on 5th rounder Ethan Lindow to lure him away from the University of Alabama-Birmingham, as Lindow can get his fastball into the low 90's with a feel for a breaking ball and a changeup. However, he still needs to prove that he is durable enough to start every fifth day. 12th rounder David Parkinson had a successful two year career at Ole Miss, going 11-6 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over 36 games (23 starts) and striking out 126 in 145 innings. He's a lefty with a running fastball that sits around 90, and with a solid slider, he could be a solid bullpen option. 13th rounder Colby Fitch served as Louisville's starting catcher this year after Will Smith was drafted by the Dodgers off that position last year, and Fitch blasted 11 home runs in his power breakout. However, he also batted just .259, so his .372 on-base percentage was reliant on his 12.2% walk rate. He has a short, powerful swing, but he's likely a back-up catcher if he reaches the majors. 23rd rounder Shane Drohan cracked my top 150 at #118, but he probably won't sign here and will instead attend Florida State. Drohan is a 6'2" lefty with a fastball around 90 and a very good curveball, the latter of which could be his carrying pitch down the road. Solid combination of ceiling and floor for a high schooler. 26th rounder Quincy Nieporte was a big producer as a senior for Florida State this year, slashing .302/.378/.510 with 11 home runs for the Seminoles and striking out in a decently low 12% of his plate appearances. He will have average big league power if he makes it that far, but he turns 23 at the end of July and is physically maxed out as it is. 34th rounder Kyle Hurt ranked 98th on my list, but he'll likely attend Southern Cal with this draft spot. Hurt shows the upside of a big league starter, coming in with a low 90's fastball and a big breaking curveball. He does tip his pitches occasionally by changing his arm slot, and he's already 19, so he has a lot of work to do and will be eligible as a sophomore at USC. There were also some minor makeup questions that are probably best addressed at school rather than in pro ball.
Sunday, June 11, 2017
2017 Draft Demographics: College Hitters With No Standout Tool
1st Tier: Adam Haseley, Keston Hiura
2nd Tier: Logan Warmoth, Evan White, Brian Miller, K.J. Harrison, Stuart Fairchild
3rd Tier: Connor Wong, Kevin Smith, Joey Morgan
Others: Zach Rutherford, Taylor Walls, Ernie Clement, Devin Hairston, Will Toffey
By the title, this sounds like a strangely specific list, but this type of player is very prevalent in the college game. These guys won't hit 30 home runs or steal 50 bases, but they know how to play the game. They're your future Dustin Pedroias, Alex Bregmans, and Logan Forsythes. Obviously, some players fit better on this list than others, as Hiura's hit tool, White's defense, and Fairchild's speed could technically disqualify them from this list, but overall they fit in well with the other guys.
Tier I (Haseley, Hiura)
I wrote about Adam Haseley under the college power hitters demographic, but I am also much higher on his power than most. For the typical observer, Haseley fits here with his broad skill set. Keston Hiura, who hit .442 for UC-Irvine this year, may have the best hit tool in this draft, but hit isn't the first tool you think of when you think of "toolsy" players. Hiura has big time defensive questions stemming from an elbow injury as well as middling play when he's actually on the field, but he might be the most advanced hitter in this class. Out of every player out there, I'd put Hiura up there with Brendan McKay or Haseley as the one I would most want if I needed a pinch hitter in the MLB today. His swing is still a bit sweepy, but it is better than it was last year and he should continue to make improvements with pro coaching.
Tier II (Warmoth, White, Miller, Harrison, Fairchild)
UNC's Logan Warmoth hit himself into the first round this year, slashing .336/.404/.554 in the always tough ACC, and he probably epitomizes this class more than anybody else. He's a slightly above average hitter and an average defender at a tough position, shortstop. He's a decent runner and slashed a respectably average .270/.330/.450 over 27 games in the Cape Cod League, the toughest collegiate summer league there is. Overall, it's a pretty boring profile, but boring isn't always bad. Kentucky's Evan White would rank in the first tier for some, if not most people, but I'm the low guy on him. I love his mature approach at the plate, but I think he's unlikely to develop more than average power, and he doesn't have a Hiura-like hit tool or a Jeren Kendall-like run tool to offset it. His 10% walk rate is also fairly low, though I think he can improve it. On top of that, he's a first baseman – the best defensive first baseman in the class, but still a first baseman. Many see him coming off the board in the top 20 picks after slashing .368/.450/.627 with nine home runs against tough SEC pitching, but as the low guy on him, I ranked White just outside the top 30. Warmoth's teammate, Brian Miller, shares a lot in common with White. He slashed .343/.422/.502 with seven home runs in an almost-as-tough ACC, and he also plays first base. He's not as good defensively as White, but he is also more likely to be able to transition to center field in pro ball, as he is a bit faster. His profile gets even more interesting because like White, he has a long, flat swing that doesn't produce much power. He does walk a little bit more (12.1%). Most people would be confused to even see the two compared, and I still rank White well ahead of Miller. Oregon State's K.J. Harrison could have been ranked under the power hitters' demographic, but the power is just light enough – for now – that he fits in this category. Despite being one of the youngest college juniors available (he turns 21 in August), Harrison is one of the more advanced college hitters on the market, slashing .330/.396/.515 with eight home runs in the Pac-12 this year. He has the ability to hit for more power (his 21 extra base hits are down from 28 last year), but he focused more on contact and spraying the ball to all fields this season, and the power should come back as he advances. Harrison is limited to first base (though he has an outside shot at catching), and his 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio isn't exactly what you'd hope for, but he is a solid option in the second round that could be somewhat similar to the Mets' 2016 second round pick, Peter Alonso. Lastly, Stuart Fairchild couldn't be any more different from Harrison, profiling more as a poor man's Jeren Kendall. Fairchild is fast enough that I almost didn't include him in this demographic, stealing 46 bases over his three years at Wake Forest (including 20 this year), and he profiles as an above average defender in the outfield. Like Kendall, he has a lot of swing and miss to his game (17% strikeout rate), but his swing is not as clean as Kendall's and does not produce as much power. He slashed an amazing .359/.438/.645 with 17 home runs in the ACC this year (albeit in Wake Forest's hitter-friendly home park), but his .232/.323/.330 line over 34 Cape Cod League games leaves me as the low guy on Fairchild, who some think could crack the top 40 picks.
Tier III (Wong, Smith, Morgan)
Connor Wong is just about the weirdest catcher you've seen. At just 5'10", 170 lbs, he looks more like a second baseman than a backstop, and he can actually play all over the infield if needed. He also stole 26 bases for the University of Houston this year. I'd consider him a Keston Hiura-lite type of player, with the ability to catch but not nearly the offensive capabilities. Maryland's Kevin Smith, who joins Brian Miller in the "boring name" group, also has a weird profile. He has power, and actually ranked among the "others" in the college power hitters demographic, but his 13 home runs were just about the only thing he had going for him at the plate this year, slashing an underwhelming .268/.323/.552. Unlike most power hitters, he is an agile defender, and could actually stick at shortstop. Washington's Joey Morgan is another catcher, one with all-around decent tools who profiles well as a backup at the major league level. He was on very few prospect lists at the beginning of the season, but he slashed .324/.427/.500 in the Pac-12 and unlike some of the other catching prospects in this draft, is a near-certainty to stick behind the plate.
2nd Tier: Logan Warmoth, Evan White, Brian Miller, K.J. Harrison, Stuart Fairchild
3rd Tier: Connor Wong, Kevin Smith, Joey Morgan
Others: Zach Rutherford, Taylor Walls, Ernie Clement, Devin Hairston, Will Toffey
By the title, this sounds like a strangely specific list, but this type of player is very prevalent in the college game. These guys won't hit 30 home runs or steal 50 bases, but they know how to play the game. They're your future Dustin Pedroias, Alex Bregmans, and Logan Forsythes. Obviously, some players fit better on this list than others, as Hiura's hit tool, White's defense, and Fairchild's speed could technically disqualify them from this list, but overall they fit in well with the other guys.
Tier I (Haseley, Hiura)
I wrote about Adam Haseley under the college power hitters demographic, but I am also much higher on his power than most. For the typical observer, Haseley fits here with his broad skill set. Keston Hiura, who hit .442 for UC-Irvine this year, may have the best hit tool in this draft, but hit isn't the first tool you think of when you think of "toolsy" players. Hiura has big time defensive questions stemming from an elbow injury as well as middling play when he's actually on the field, but he might be the most advanced hitter in this class. Out of every player out there, I'd put Hiura up there with Brendan McKay or Haseley as the one I would most want if I needed a pinch hitter in the MLB today. His swing is still a bit sweepy, but it is better than it was last year and he should continue to make improvements with pro coaching.
Tier II (Warmoth, White, Miller, Harrison, Fairchild)
UNC's Logan Warmoth hit himself into the first round this year, slashing .336/.404/.554 in the always tough ACC, and he probably epitomizes this class more than anybody else. He's a slightly above average hitter and an average defender at a tough position, shortstop. He's a decent runner and slashed a respectably average .270/.330/.450 over 27 games in the Cape Cod League, the toughest collegiate summer league there is. Overall, it's a pretty boring profile, but boring isn't always bad. Kentucky's Evan White would rank in the first tier for some, if not most people, but I'm the low guy on him. I love his mature approach at the plate, but I think he's unlikely to develop more than average power, and he doesn't have a Hiura-like hit tool or a Jeren Kendall-like run tool to offset it. His 10% walk rate is also fairly low, though I think he can improve it. On top of that, he's a first baseman – the best defensive first baseman in the class, but still a first baseman. Many see him coming off the board in the top 20 picks after slashing .368/.450/.627 with nine home runs against tough SEC pitching, but as the low guy on him, I ranked White just outside the top 30. Warmoth's teammate, Brian Miller, shares a lot in common with White. He slashed .343/.422/.502 with seven home runs in an almost-as-tough ACC, and he also plays first base. He's not as good defensively as White, but he is also more likely to be able to transition to center field in pro ball, as he is a bit faster. His profile gets even more interesting because like White, he has a long, flat swing that doesn't produce much power. He does walk a little bit more (12.1%). Most people would be confused to even see the two compared, and I still rank White well ahead of Miller. Oregon State's K.J. Harrison could have been ranked under the power hitters' demographic, but the power is just light enough – for now – that he fits in this category. Despite being one of the youngest college juniors available (he turns 21 in August), Harrison is one of the more advanced college hitters on the market, slashing .330/.396/.515 with eight home runs in the Pac-12 this year. He has the ability to hit for more power (his 21 extra base hits are down from 28 last year), but he focused more on contact and spraying the ball to all fields this season, and the power should come back as he advances. Harrison is limited to first base (though he has an outside shot at catching), and his 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio isn't exactly what you'd hope for, but he is a solid option in the second round that could be somewhat similar to the Mets' 2016 second round pick, Peter Alonso. Lastly, Stuart Fairchild couldn't be any more different from Harrison, profiling more as a poor man's Jeren Kendall. Fairchild is fast enough that I almost didn't include him in this demographic, stealing 46 bases over his three years at Wake Forest (including 20 this year), and he profiles as an above average defender in the outfield. Like Kendall, he has a lot of swing and miss to his game (17% strikeout rate), but his swing is not as clean as Kendall's and does not produce as much power. He slashed an amazing .359/.438/.645 with 17 home runs in the ACC this year (albeit in Wake Forest's hitter-friendly home park), but his .232/.323/.330 line over 34 Cape Cod League games leaves me as the low guy on Fairchild, who some think could crack the top 40 picks.
Tier III (Wong, Smith, Morgan)
Connor Wong is just about the weirdest catcher you've seen. At just 5'10", 170 lbs, he looks more like a second baseman than a backstop, and he can actually play all over the infield if needed. He also stole 26 bases for the University of Houston this year. I'd consider him a Keston Hiura-lite type of player, with the ability to catch but not nearly the offensive capabilities. Maryland's Kevin Smith, who joins Brian Miller in the "boring name" group, also has a weird profile. He has power, and actually ranked among the "others" in the college power hitters demographic, but his 13 home runs were just about the only thing he had going for him at the plate this year, slashing an underwhelming .268/.323/.552. Unlike most power hitters, he is an agile defender, and could actually stick at shortstop. Washington's Joey Morgan is another catcher, one with all-around decent tools who profiles well as a backup at the major league level. He was on very few prospect lists at the beginning of the season, but he slashed .324/.427/.500 in the Pac-12 and unlike some of the other catching prospects in this draft, is a near-certainty to stick behind the plate.
Saturday, June 10, 2017
2017 Draft Demographics: College Power Hitters
First Tier: Brendan McKay, Adam Haseley, Pavin Smith, Jeren Kendall
Second Tier: Jake Burger, Brent Rooker, Drew Ellis
Third Tier: J.J. Matijevic, Gavin Sheets, Greg Deichmann, Evan Skoug
Others: Matt Whatley, Kevin Smith, Daulton Varsho, Joe Dunand, J.J. Schwarz
It's no secret that teams covet power, and what better place to find it than on the proven grounds of the NCAA? These guys can hit the ball a mile, and they've at least been tested against higher level pitching, unlike their high school counterparts.
Tier I (McKay, Haseley, Smith, Kendall)
Brendan McKay the pitcher's alter ego, Brendan McKay the hitter, has a larger gap between his floor and ceiling, as could hit 20-30 home runs per season with on-base percentages approaching .400. He's not the most powerful hitter in this class, but his combination of power and hit is as good as anybody's. Adam Haseley and Pavin Smith may hit next to each other in the UVA lineup, but they are very different players (keep in mind that those draft previews are almost two months old). Neither strike out much at all, Smith even less so than Haseley, and Smith is generally thought of as having more power potential and being a more polished bat. However, Haseley gets the edge on defense, as he should be an average center fielder or an above average right fielder, while Smith is confined to first base. Personally, I'm a bigger fan of Haseley, because I think he has small issues with his swing that could be fixed easily, pay huge dividends, and ultimately lead to him being a better hitter than Smith, defense aside. Both project to go in the first half of the first round. Vanderbilt's Jeren Kendall is essentially a smaller, quicker Adam Haseley with much more swing and miss. Kendall is an even better defender than Haseley, as he will no doubt stick in center field and has the arm to match. He also has a quicker swing that generates the same amount of, if not more, power despite his smaller frame (he stands at just 5'10", 180 lbs). Though most of his game grades out as better than Haseley's, he has one major flaw that ultimately gives Haseley the edge in my book; while Haseley struck out in just 7.8% of his plate appearances, Kendall struck out at an alarming 24.7% rate. He is much less polished than Haseley, and his quick swing will need a lot of refinement to keep pro pitchers from blowing their stuff by him.
Tier II (Burger, Rooker, Ellis)
Jake Burger stands out as the clear leader in this tier, having put up a monster campaign for Missouri State (.333/.448/.663, 22 HR), albeit in a lighter conference that tends to inflate hitting numbers. He has a long swing that gives slightly higher strikeout rates than you'd like to see in a mid-major conference (12.1%), but he also walked in 14.1% of his plate appearances, which helps offset that. I also like that though his swing is long and unorthodox, he keeps it in the zone for a long time. On defense, he's nothing special at third base and may have to move to first base, though he is said to be working very hard to keep that from happening. He's a higher risk than the guys in Tier I, but provides just as much upside. Next up is Brent Rooker, whose 2017 statistics will keep any other stats in this article from being impressive. Despite playing in the SEC, college baseball's toughest conference to hit in, he put up video game numbers for Mississippi State, slashing .395/.498/.827 with 30 doubles, three triples, 23 home runs, and 18 stolen bases in 65 games. Keeping with the context that this was in the SEC against the likes of Vanderbilt, Florida, LSU, you name it, it may have been college baseball's greatest offensive season of the BBCOR era. Rooker generates his power from an extremely powerful right handed swing, one that reminds me of prep star Austin Beck, as he generates plus bat speed. So far, he sounds like a first overall pick, but let me temper that real quick. Rooker is a redshirt junior, and turns 23 in November, so he's a year older than the rest of the guys on this list (except Greg Deichmann in Tier III). Additionally, he struck out in 17.9% of his plate appearances this year (though he did walk in 15%), and he grades out as a slightly below average left fielder, so he doesn't provide much defensive value. In my opinion, the bat will carry him, and he could make teams look foolish if he falls out of the supplemental round. After Rooker, we have another big performer in Louisville's Drew Ellis, and while Rooker will make his numbers look rather pedestrian, they were pretty darn impressive. Playing in the ACC, college baseball's second toughest conference after the SEC, McKay's teammate slashed .362/.453/.695 with 17 home runs and a lower strikeout rate (14%) than Rooker. The redshirt sophomore, whose age is in line with the typical college junior and is therefore a year younger than Rooker, holds more defensive value than his Mississippi State counterpart as a competent third baseman. His swing is very different though, as he likes to keep his hands very close to his body and use his natural torque to generate power. His mechanics are fairly similar to Mike Trout's, but don't get too excited because Trout has significantly more bat speed and has a cleaner swing path, as Ellis' uppercut means he is in and out of the zone fairly quickly.
Tier III (Matijevic, Sheets, Deichmann, Skoug)
The top two hitters in this tier, Arizona's J.J. Matijevic and Wake Forest's Gavin Sheets, have fairly similar offensive outlooks but get to their power in different ways. Matijevic, whose name I have a much easier time trying to spell than I expected when I first saw it, has swing mechanics similar to prep hitter Brady McConnell in that they both contract and explode on pitches. Meanwhile, Sheets generates his big time power from his brute strength and powerful swing, which will need to be cleaned up to hit at the next level. While Matijevic's swing is more polished, Sheets has the more polished approach, crushing Matijevic in walk rate 15.7% to 8.4% and also holding the better strikeout rate at 11.8% to 13.8%. Both are limited to first base defensively, but Matijevic has one last plus in that he's arguably this class's strongest Cape Cod League performer, having slashed .349/.391/.507 with six home runs over 61 games in two seasons. Ultimately, this gives Matijevic the edge for me. Louisiana State's Greg Deichmann is another guy that's a little old for the class, having turned 22 in May, but there is a lot to like. He has a cleaner swing than Matijevic and Sheets, and slashed .322/.430/.614 with 19 home runs in a tough SEC. His 17.8% strikeout rate is a little high for a senior-aged player, but he's a polished hitter and reportedly is a strong leader. He's not a defensive whiz, but he can perform adequately in a corner outfield spot, unlike the previous two guys. Lastly, we have Evan Skoug, the TCU catcher with a lot to like and a lot to dislike. On the positive side, he has a very strong bat which caught fire in the second half, he's an extremely hard worker who gets plus marks for his makeup and leadership skills all around, and he's a catcher. On the negative side, he struggled immensely in the first half of the season, may have to move off catcher because of his so-so defensive skills, and he strikes out a ton, including a career high 29.8% in 2017. Out of the four, Deichmann is the best hitter, Skoug provides the most defensive value (as of now), and Matijevic and Sheets have the most projection at the plate.
Second Tier: Jake Burger, Brent Rooker, Drew Ellis
Third Tier: J.J. Matijevic, Gavin Sheets, Greg Deichmann, Evan Skoug
Others: Matt Whatley, Kevin Smith, Daulton Varsho, Joe Dunand, J.J. Schwarz
It's no secret that teams covet power, and what better place to find it than on the proven grounds of the NCAA? These guys can hit the ball a mile, and they've at least been tested against higher level pitching, unlike their high school counterparts.
Tier I (McKay, Haseley, Smith, Kendall)
Brendan McKay the pitcher's alter ego, Brendan McKay the hitter, has a larger gap between his floor and ceiling, as could hit 20-30 home runs per season with on-base percentages approaching .400. He's not the most powerful hitter in this class, but his combination of power and hit is as good as anybody's. Adam Haseley and Pavin Smith may hit next to each other in the UVA lineup, but they are very different players (keep in mind that those draft previews are almost two months old). Neither strike out much at all, Smith even less so than Haseley, and Smith is generally thought of as having more power potential and being a more polished bat. However, Haseley gets the edge on defense, as he should be an average center fielder or an above average right fielder, while Smith is confined to first base. Personally, I'm a bigger fan of Haseley, because I think he has small issues with his swing that could be fixed easily, pay huge dividends, and ultimately lead to him being a better hitter than Smith, defense aside. Both project to go in the first half of the first round. Vanderbilt's Jeren Kendall is essentially a smaller, quicker Adam Haseley with much more swing and miss. Kendall is an even better defender than Haseley, as he will no doubt stick in center field and has the arm to match. He also has a quicker swing that generates the same amount of, if not more, power despite his smaller frame (he stands at just 5'10", 180 lbs). Though most of his game grades out as better than Haseley's, he has one major flaw that ultimately gives Haseley the edge in my book; while Haseley struck out in just 7.8% of his plate appearances, Kendall struck out at an alarming 24.7% rate. He is much less polished than Haseley, and his quick swing will need a lot of refinement to keep pro pitchers from blowing their stuff by him.
Tier II (Burger, Rooker, Ellis)
Jake Burger stands out as the clear leader in this tier, having put up a monster campaign for Missouri State (.333/.448/.663, 22 HR), albeit in a lighter conference that tends to inflate hitting numbers. He has a long swing that gives slightly higher strikeout rates than you'd like to see in a mid-major conference (12.1%), but he also walked in 14.1% of his plate appearances, which helps offset that. I also like that though his swing is long and unorthodox, he keeps it in the zone for a long time. On defense, he's nothing special at third base and may have to move to first base, though he is said to be working very hard to keep that from happening. He's a higher risk than the guys in Tier I, but provides just as much upside. Next up is Brent Rooker, whose 2017 statistics will keep any other stats in this article from being impressive. Despite playing in the SEC, college baseball's toughest conference to hit in, he put up video game numbers for Mississippi State, slashing .395/.498/.827 with 30 doubles, three triples, 23 home runs, and 18 stolen bases in 65 games. Keeping with the context that this was in the SEC against the likes of Vanderbilt, Florida, LSU, you name it, it may have been college baseball's greatest offensive season of the BBCOR era. Rooker generates his power from an extremely powerful right handed swing, one that reminds me of prep star Austin Beck, as he generates plus bat speed. So far, he sounds like a first overall pick, but let me temper that real quick. Rooker is a redshirt junior, and turns 23 in November, so he's a year older than the rest of the guys on this list (except Greg Deichmann in Tier III). Additionally, he struck out in 17.9% of his plate appearances this year (though he did walk in 15%), and he grades out as a slightly below average left fielder, so he doesn't provide much defensive value. In my opinion, the bat will carry him, and he could make teams look foolish if he falls out of the supplemental round. After Rooker, we have another big performer in Louisville's Drew Ellis, and while Rooker will make his numbers look rather pedestrian, they were pretty darn impressive. Playing in the ACC, college baseball's second toughest conference after the SEC, McKay's teammate slashed .362/.453/.695 with 17 home runs and a lower strikeout rate (14%) than Rooker. The redshirt sophomore, whose age is in line with the typical college junior and is therefore a year younger than Rooker, holds more defensive value than his Mississippi State counterpart as a competent third baseman. His swing is very different though, as he likes to keep his hands very close to his body and use his natural torque to generate power. His mechanics are fairly similar to Mike Trout's, but don't get too excited because Trout has significantly more bat speed and has a cleaner swing path, as Ellis' uppercut means he is in and out of the zone fairly quickly.
Tier III (Matijevic, Sheets, Deichmann, Skoug)
The top two hitters in this tier, Arizona's J.J. Matijevic and Wake Forest's Gavin Sheets, have fairly similar offensive outlooks but get to their power in different ways. Matijevic, whose name I have a much easier time trying to spell than I expected when I first saw it, has swing mechanics similar to prep hitter Brady McConnell in that they both contract and explode on pitches. Meanwhile, Sheets generates his big time power from his brute strength and powerful swing, which will need to be cleaned up to hit at the next level. While Matijevic's swing is more polished, Sheets has the more polished approach, crushing Matijevic in walk rate 15.7% to 8.4% and also holding the better strikeout rate at 11.8% to 13.8%. Both are limited to first base defensively, but Matijevic has one last plus in that he's arguably this class's strongest Cape Cod League performer, having slashed .349/.391/.507 with six home runs over 61 games in two seasons. Ultimately, this gives Matijevic the edge for me. Louisiana State's Greg Deichmann is another guy that's a little old for the class, having turned 22 in May, but there is a lot to like. He has a cleaner swing than Matijevic and Sheets, and slashed .322/.430/.614 with 19 home runs in a tough SEC. His 17.8% strikeout rate is a little high for a senior-aged player, but he's a polished hitter and reportedly is a strong leader. He's not a defensive whiz, but he can perform adequately in a corner outfield spot, unlike the previous two guys. Lastly, we have Evan Skoug, the TCU catcher with a lot to like and a lot to dislike. On the positive side, he has a very strong bat which caught fire in the second half, he's an extremely hard worker who gets plus marks for his makeup and leadership skills all around, and he's a catcher. On the negative side, he struggled immensely in the first half of the season, may have to move off catcher because of his so-so defensive skills, and he strikes out a ton, including a career high 29.8% in 2017. Out of the four, Deichmann is the best hitter, Skoug provides the most defensive value (as of now), and Matijevic and Sheets have the most projection at the plate.
Sunday, April 16, 2017
2017 Draft Preview: Adam Haseley
CF Adam Haseley (University of Virginia): 6'1", 185 lbs, born 4/12/1996
Overview
Hit: 55. Power: 45. Field: 60. Throw: 60. Run: 55.
In addition to seeing Pavin Smith, I had the opportunity to watch UVA's two-way star Adam Haseley play in a three game set at Virginia Tech. As with so many others coming into this season, scouts were all interested to see whether Haseley would shine more as a hitter or as a pitcher this season. As it turns out, the former is true, and he has shot up draft boards into first round consideration with his all-around style of play. Let's take a look.
Strengths
Haseley has had a multi-faceted breakout season as a hitter this year. As of April 15th, he has vastly improved his on-base percentage (.377 to .503), isolated power (.198 to .302), and strikeout to walk ratio (1.04:1 to 0.46:1) at the same time. Beginning his stance in a slight crouch and with a sizeable leg kick, he generates power from a quick left-handed swing that is more oriented towards line drives right now than it is towards home runs. His stance and load both remind me of a left handed Josh Donaldson, and if he can make the necessary adjustments (see Weaknesses), an offensive profile like Donaldson's isn't all-together out of the question. Like his teammate, Pavin Smith, he is extremely polished at the plate, putting up an excellent 13/28 strikeout to walk ratio (7.6% to 16.5%) and really working his counts to get his pitch. He's not the fastest guy in the world, but he uses his speed well and has stolen 17 bases in 23 attempts (73.9%) so far in his college career. He's a gifted center fielder, displaying great range and a cannon for an arm that also helps him dial up well-located 90 MPH fastballs as a member of the Cavaliers' weekend rotation. Combined with 2018 Draft prospects Jake McCarthy (younger brother of Rays prospect Joe McCarthy) and Cameron Simmons, both terrific fielders in their own rights, not much drops in that UVA outfield.
Weaknesses
Haseley has a few flaws in his swing mechanics, most notably in his swing angle and in his load. Fortunately, these are most likely fixable. Starting with the load, Haseley seems to be tentative in using it at this point, keeping all of his weight on his back leg while he picks up and places down that front foot. That is not necessarily a bad thing, because it keeps him from leaking power, but at the same time it saps the even greater potential power that can be generated from gaining ground in a stride such as his. His swing, at this point, is line-drive oriented. He swings down on the ball to stay on top, and while this produces its fair share of line drives, it also produces a lot of ground balls and means he will only be able to tap his power consistently if he turns on inside pitches. If he can add more loft to that swing while gaining ground with his load, he's an All Star.
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