Monday, May 15, 2017

2017 Draft Preview: Brian Miller

CF Brian Miller (University of North Carolina): 6', 185 lbs, born 8/20/1995.

Overview

Hit: 55. Power: 40. Run: 60. Throw: 45. Field: 55.

Miller has an interesting profile, as he has a long, linear swing with good bat speed, but he is much more of a contact/speed guy than a power hitter. He is a solid defender that should be able to stick in center field, and his great plate discipline will help carry his bat, which is otherwise unremarkable. He strikes me as a similar player to UVA's Adam Haseley, though Haseley has more power and a stronger arm and Miller is faster. Both are left handed center fielders who employ a leg kick before their swing, but neither gains ground with it and instead, both employ a linear swing path. Haseley is clearly the better option to me, but Miller is a player in the same mold. Miller likely will not break into the first round unless a team wants to save money, so he should be pegged for somewhere in the second round.

Strengths
Miller has very good control of the strike zone and always had, maintaining a career 75/81 strikeout to walk ratio in his three years at UNC (11.3% strikeout rate, 12.2% walk rate). He has 28 walks this season (11.7%), despite his plus speed and the fact that he bats ahead of likely first rounder Logan Warmoth. Miller always made pitchers pay for their walks, stealing 50 bases in 61 attempts for his career (82%), including 19 in 23 attempts this season (82.6%). Though he lacks power, his big bat speed and leg kick could bode well for him if he adds loft to his swing.

Weaknesses
Miller does lack power at this point, and even if he does add loft to his swing as I stated in the strengths section, it will never be more than average power due to his wiry build that is much better suited for speed. Though he did bat .327 with 15 stolen bases on the Cape this summer, his .369 on-base percentage and .060 ISO were uninspiring, making him more likely than Warmoth to end up a utility man. He's a guy who if developed right could slash .300/.360/.420 with speed in the majors, but there's a good chance he never hits enough to make a significant impact. That is not a first round profile, but in the second round, it could fit the bill.

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