Showing posts with label Ervin Santana. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ervin Santana. Show all posts

Sunday, May 7, 2017

Tracking Awards: 5/7


AL MVP: Mike Trout (LAA): 8 HR, 21 RBI, .355 AVG, 5 SB, 215 wRC+. Last week: Trout.
Mike Trout, named the American League's Player of the Month for April, has continued his hot hitting into may (is it really "hot hitting" if he does this all the time, though?). After slashing .364/.443/.707 with seven home runs in 27 May games, he has slashed .273/.467/.636 with one home run over three May games as hamstring tightness has held him out of the lineup. He is currently riding a 17 game hitting streak, and he has reached base in 29 of his 30 games this season. His only blemish this season was an 0-4 in Ian Kennedy's gem (8 shutout innings, 2 hits, 2 walks, 10 K's). 30 games in, we are seeing vintage Mike Trout.

NL MVP: Ryan Zimmerman (WSH): 13 HR, 34 RBI, .435 AVG, 1 SB, 252 wRC+. Last week: Zimmerman.
It's May 7th and Ryan Zimmerman is still slashing a ridiculous .435/.475/.907, leading the National League in home runs (13) and just about every other category. His 252 wRC+ is 30 points higher than the next best in the majors (Aaron Judge, 222) and 42 points higher than the next best in the National League (Bryce Harper, 210). He won the NL Player of the Month Award after slashing .420/.458/.886 with 11 home runs in 24 games in April, and he has only gotten better in May, slashing .500/.545/1.000 with a pair of home runs in five games. He has had at least two hits in eight of his past nine games, slashing .553/.561/1.158 and smashing six home runs over that span. I talked last week about how higher launch angles have helped Zim's production, but at this point, this is just absurd. Nothing we can do but sit back and enjoy his onslaught.

AL Cy Young: Ervin Santana (MIN): 5-0, 0.66 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 33/13 K/BB. Last week: Santana.
Coming into the week having occupied this spot in each of the past two weeks, Santana made it three weeks in a row by casually tossing six shutout innings against the A's on Tuesday, allowing three hits and three walks while striking out seven. His ERA has dropped to a minuscule 0.66 as he has allowed just three earned runs over 41 innings, and perhaps even more impressive, just 16 hits. Allowing less than a hit per two innings has led to an opponents' slash line of just .120/.199/.180. The surprising Twins are 15-13 this season, thanks in large part to Santana's dominance every fifth day.

NL Cy Young: Mike Leake (STL): 4-1, 1.79 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 27/7 K/BB. Last week: Ivan Nova.
While Leake has hung around this spot for a few weeks now, tough starts from Noah Syndergaard (1.1 IP, 5 ER) and Ivan Nova (6 IP, 4 ER) allowed him to step in despite not having the world's greatest game (7 IP, 3 ER). Largely mediocre in his first season in St. Louis (9-12, 4.69 ERA, 1.32 WHIP), Leake has been everything the Cardinals have wanted this year, putting up a 1.79 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP over six starts. Each of his six starts have been quality starts (at least 6 IP, at most 3 ER), and Adonis Garcia's three run home run on Saturday was the first home run hit off Leake this season. He hasn't put up Ervin Santana-type numbers, but in a National League where Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, Eric Thames, etc. are hitting the snot out of the ball, what Leake has been doing has been pretty incredible. Those four hitters have combined to go 2-12 (.167 AVG) with a pair of strikeouts, no walks, and no extra base hits against Leake, with only Zimmerman and Thames picking up lone singles despite terrorizing NL pitching otherwise.

AL Rookie of the Year: Aaron Judge (NYY): 13 HR, 27 RBI, .320 AVG, 1 SB, 222 wRC+. Last week: Judge.
Earlier in the season, Mitch Haniger's hot start had him in this spot. At this point, not only is Judge looking like a unanimous AL ROY, he is competing with Mike Trout for AL MVP consideration. Judge slashed just .133/.188/.200 in his first five games, picking up a single, a double, and a walk while striking out five times in 16 plate appearances. Since then, he has been unstoppable, slashing .354/.454/.878 with 13 home runs in 22 games. I talked last week about his improved plate discipline, and that is still the case today, and the numbers show it. With three home runs in May, he and Ryan "Babe Ruth" Zimmerman are tied for the MLB lead with 13, and Judge's 222 wRC+ and .487 wOBA actually edge Trout for the AL lead (215 and .469, respectively).

NL Rookie of the Year: Antonio Senzatela (COL): 4-1, 2.84 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 20/8 K/BB. Last week: Senzatela.
For the first time since April 16th, Senzatela got the chance to pitch somewhere other than Coors Field on Wednesday, and he didn't disappoint, allowing two earned runs on six hits and one walk over six innings, striking out two Padres in San Diego. His ERA and WHIP stand at 2.84 and 1.03, respectively, which actually puts him in NL Cy Young consideration given the difficulty of pitching half your games in Coors Field and the lack of one true frontrunner in the race. Senzatela knows what kills you in Denver, so he has walked just eight of the 151 batters he has faced, good for an excellent 5.3% rate, especially for a rookie. We'll see how a full season as a Rockie goes, but he's looking great so far. 

Minor League Watch: Thomas Pannone (CLE AA): 2-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.61 WHIP, 39/7 K/BB. Last week: Domenic Mazza.
Thomas Pannone was the Indians' ninth round pick in 2013 out of the College of Southern Nevada, and he pitched decently but uninspiringly over his first three seasons. Pannone was good enough at Class A Lake County in 2015 (5-5, 3.02 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 84/25 K/BB) to earn a promotion to High Class A Lynchburg in 2016, where he was excellent down the stretch. After not allowing an earned run in his final 18 innings in 2016, the Indians started him off with Lynchburg again in 2017, and it was more of the same. Over five starts, he still didn't allow an earned run over 27.2 innings, giving him 45.2 consecutive shutout innings (though he did allow an unearned run on April 12th against the Salem Red Sox). In his five starts this year, he allowed just ten hits and and seven walks, striking out 39. In no start has he allowed an earned run, more than four hits, more than two walks, or struck out fewer than six. The amazing performances earned the 23 year old a promotion to AA Akron, where he has yet to pitch.

Sunday, April 30, 2017

Tracking Awards 4/30


AL MVP: Mike Trout (LAA): 7 HR, 18 RBI, .365 AVG, 5 SB, 223 wRC+. Last week: Trout.
What else is new? Early on, Mike Trout is right there atop the American League. He is slashing .365/.436/.719 through 27 games, leading the AL in games played, hits (35), extra base hits (18), total bases (69), wRC+ (223), wOBA (weighted on-base average, .474), and fWAR (2.0). He's sitting on a 13 game hitting streak right now, and in all but one of them he's had at least two total bases. He also hasn't struck out more than once in any of those games. He's only just started his seventh season, but he's working his way up the list of the all time greatest players.

NL MVP: Ryan Zimmerman (WSH): 11 HR, 27 RBI, .410 AVG, 1 SB, 246 wRC+. Last week: Bryce Harper.
Through just 23 games, Ryan Zimmerman has nearly half as many total bases (74) as he did in all of 2016 (158). Just one season after slashing .218/.272/.370 and putting up a 67 wRC+, which would have been the third worst in the MLB had he qualified, he is off to a .410/.456/.892 start, putting up a major league leading 246 wRC+. What has gotten into this guy? The answer is in the launch angle. In 2016, he had elite exit velocity, averaging 93.3 MPH, while this season is virtually the same at 93.2 MPH. However, last year, the ball only travelled 166 feet on average, while this season he's averaging 219 feet per batted ball, because he's not pounding the ball into the ground any more. Contrary to popular belief, the secret to hitting is in going for fly balls, not ground balls. Zimmerman has been hot all season, but he has really gone to another level over his last eleven games, slashing a whopping .488/.533/1.146 with eight home runs in that span. With Adam Eaton out for the season with an ACL injury, it is critical that Zim keeps producing the way he is.

AL Cy Young: Ervin Santana (MIN): 4-0, 0.77 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, 26/10 K/BB. Last week: Santana.
Ervin Santana is still going at it. Through five starts, he's allowed just three runs on thirteen hits and ten walks over 35 innings, good for an MLB best 0.77 ERA and 0.66 WHIP. In no single start has he allowed more than one run, four hits, or three walks, with his "worst" start of the season coming on April 20th against Cleveland, where he went six innings and allowed just one run on four hits and three walks, striking out five. His best start was just five days earlier, when he shut out the White Sox on one hit, one walk, and eight strikeouts over nine innings. We don't know what has gotten into Ervin, but its working.

NL Cy Young: Ivan Nova (PIT): 3-2, 1.50 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 22/1 K/BB. Last week: Noah Syndergaard.
Ivan Nova may have had an unspectacular start on April 12th, when he allowed three runs on eight hits and no walks over six innings against the Reds, but aside from that one game, he's simply been spectacular. In his four other starts, he is 3-1 with a 0.90 ERA and a 0.63 WHIP, striking out 21 and walking just one over 30 innings. In his most recent start, on Saturday, he shut out the Marlins on three hits and no walks, striking out seven in nine innings. As of now, Yankees pitcher Jordan Montgomery is the only player to draw a walk against Nova.

AL Rookie of the Year: Aaron Judge (NYY): 10 HR, 20 RBI, .301 AVG, 1 SB, 217 wRC+. Last week: Mitch Haniger.
Coming into the season, we were worried that Judge wouldn't make enough contact in the bigs to get to his huge power. He struck out in 23.9% of his plate appearances in AAA in 2016, then a whopping 44.2% of his plate appearances in 27 major league games. According to Fangraphs, he swung at 33.6% of pitches out of the zone, and even on pitches in the zone, he made contact only 78.9% of the time. However, 2017 is a different story. He has dropped his strikeout rate to 26.2% by swinging at just 24.1% of pitches out of the zone and making contact 86.5% of the time in the zone. This has led to some huge offensive numbers, as he is slashing .301/.393/.767 (217 wRC+) over 21 games, mashing 10 home runs. His average exit velocity of 94.5 MPH ranks sixth in the MLB, and his 119.4 MPH home run off of Kevin Gausman on Friday was the hardest-hit home run in Statcast history (since 2015). Aaron Judge was looked at very much as a boom-or-bust prospect coming up, and while the jury is still out, he's looking like a boom right now.

NL Rookie of the Year: Antonio Senzatela (CIN): 3-1, 2.81 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 18/7 K/BB. Last week: Senzatela
Update on Senzatela: one week later, still nobody has told him that pitching in Coors Field is supposed to be difficult. Despite making three of his five starts so far in pitchers' hell, he has a 2.81 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, walking just seven guys in 32 innings. Over three starts at Coors, he has a very respectable 3.15 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, by any stadium's standards, and in his two road starts, his ERA and WHIP are 2.25 and 1.00, respectively. He made just seven starts above High Class A coming into the season, but the 22 year old has taken the majors by storm.

Minor League Watch: Domenic Mazza (SF Class A): 1-2, 3.48 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 17/4 K/BB. Last week: Tyler Mahle.
Another week, another perfect game in the minor leagues. This one comes from Giants prospect Domenic Mazza, a 22 year old right hander with the Class A Augusta GreenJackets. Mazza was a 22nd round pick out of UC Santa Barbara in 2015, but he has worked his way into the mid-minors now. His first start of the season was ugly, as he allowed seven runs on seven hits and a walk over 2.2 innings, striking out one. He improved in his second start, allowing one run on eight hits and one walk over four innings, striking out two. He was even better in his third start, tossing five shutout innings on three hits and two walks, striking out four. Then, on April 25th, he toed the rubber against a strong Lexington Legends offense including highly regarded Royals' prospects such as Khalil Lee (a Northern Virginia kid out of Flint Hill), Chris DeVito, and Kort Peterson. 27 batters later, he had a perfect game, striking out eight Legends (including Lee all three times and DeVito twice) without allowing a single batter to reach base. In his three starts since the seven run meltdown in Columbia, he has a 0.50 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP, striking out 15 in 18 innings while walking just three.

Sunday, April 23, 2017

Tracking Awards: 4/23

If The Season Ended Today

AL MVP: Mike Trout (LAA): 5 HR, 14 RBI, .343 AVG, 3 SB, 212 wRC+. Last week: Francisco Lindor
Wow, what do you know, Mike Trout is on pace to win another MVP award. Through 19 games, he has five home runs with a pretty .343/.420/.686 slash line, leading the AL with that .686 slugging percentage. This has come from spreading his offense out, has he has not posted back to back hitless games yet this season, with his longest hitless streak being just five at bats in Kansas City. What else is there to say? At this point, nothing should surprise us about Mike Trout.

NL MVP: Bryce Harper (WSH): 7 HR, 20 RBI, .393 AVG, 0 SB, 250 wRC+. Last week: Zack Cozart.
Harper and Freddie Freeman are having essentially the exact same season at the plate, as both have 24 hits and seven home runs, with Harper doing so in one more at bat. All-encompassing stats like them just about the same, with wRC+ giving Freeman the edge 251 to 250, wOBA going to Freeman .550 to .548, OPS falling on Harper 1.362 to 1.357, and fWAR favoring Harper 1.6 to 1.5. I'll ultimately give it to Harper because of positional value, with Fangraphs rating him out just better than Freeman there. Harper is having a monster season, slashing .393/.526/.836 (Freeman's nearly identical line is .400/.507/.850), clubbing six doubles and seven home runs in 17 games. He is leading the MLB with 17 walks as well, making his .526 on-base percentage easily the highest in baseball. On Wednesday, he had possibly the best game we've seen from any hitter this season, as he knocked a single, a double, and two home runs in four at bats while also drawing an intentional walk in Atlanta. Not only that, but it was his second four-hit game of the season. 2015 Bryce is back.

AL Cy Young: Ervin Santana (MIN): 3-0, 0.64 ERA, 0.61 WHIP, 20/8 K/BB. Last week: James Paxton.
After seeing Trout and Harper be the early MVP's, seeing Ervin Santana's name under AL Cy Young is a bit different. Through four starts, Santana has allowed just two runs on nine hits, walking eight to put up an MLB-best 0.61 WHIP. His best game was on April 15th, when he held the White Sox to just two baserunners in a one-hit shutout, striking out eight. He had his worst game of the season on Thursday, allowing one run on four hits and three walks over six innings against the division-leading Indians, and if that's the worst you can do, you'll take it every time. The 34 year old may be in his 13th major league season, but two runs on seventeen baserunners over 28 innings to start the season isn't half bad.

NL Cy Young: Noah Syndergaard (NYM): 1-1, 1.73 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 30/0 K/BB. Last week: Syndergaard.
Nobody really stands out in the NL Cy Young field, but I'll go with Noah Syndergaard for a couple of reasons. Through four starts, he has allowed five earned runs on 23 hits over 26 innings, which is great in and of itself but not quite Cy Young level. On the flip side, he is still yet to walk a batter, and his 30 strikeouts give him a very solid 10.38 per nine innings. He has also had very little help from his defense, as they've allowed a .324 batting average on balls in play, which is a little bit higher than you would want, while also making enough errors to allow four unearned runs. Pitching with a sloppy defense behind you can be tough, which makes Syndergaard's numbers even more amazing. He allowed just two earned runs in his first three starts before a tougher fourth start, in which he allowed five runs (only three earned) on seven hits and one hit batsmen over seven innings, striking out 10. We'll keep you updated on when Syndergaard finally walks a batter.

AL Rookie of the Year: Mitch Haniger (SEA): 4 HR, 16 RBI, .297 AVG, 2 SB, 185 wRC+. Last week: Haniger.
Haniger and Aaron Judge are neck and neck, with OPS slightly preferring Judge 1.016 to .977 and wOBA going the same way .421 to .417. However, Haniger has the narrow edge in wRC+ 185 to 183 and in fWAR 1.1 to 0.8, and I'll give it to Haniger because he has put up the same numbers over more plate appearances. Through 19 games, Haniger is slashing .297/.409/.568, cracking six doubles, a triple, and four home runs while even swiping a pair of bases. He is leading all rookies in virtually all categories except home runs and slugging percentage, but he also plays in Seattle, a pitchers' park. An older rookie at 26 (he's older than Mike Trout), Haniger's minor league breakout in 2015 is looking more and more sustainable every day.

NL Rookie of the Year: Antonio Senzatela (COL): 3-0, 2.08 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 17/4 K/BB. Last week: Amir Garrett.
Amir Garrett hasn't done anything to lose spot here, but Senzatela has simply been amazing. Apparently, someone forgot to tell the 22 year old out of Venezuela that pitching in Coors Field is difficult, as he has actually posted a better ERA and WHIP in his two home starts (1.93 and 0.71) than in his two road starts (2.25 and 1.00). His most impressive outing came on Saturday in Colorado, as he held Buster Posey and the Giants to just one run on four hits over seven innings in the thin Denver air. He struck out just three, but when you pitch like that, who cares. He has also walked just four batters in 26 innings for a 1.38 walks per nine innings rate that is 14th best in the major leagues. Oh year, and before this season, he had made just seven total starts above High Class A in the minors.

Minor League Watch: Tyler Mahle (CIN AA): 4-0, 0.68 ERA, 0.45 WHIP, 27/5 K/BB for AA Pensacola.
The Reds' seventh round pick out of a California high school in 2013, Mahle has worked his way up prospect charts through the years, with MLB.com rating him the Reds' 10th best prospect and Minor League Ball's John Sickels ranking him 16th before the season. However, both sites may want to reevaluate, as the 6'3" righty has been nothing short of amazing this season at AA Pensacola. Sandwiched between two starts in which he allowed one run over 5.2 and five innings, respectively, was a spectacular performance in Biloxi (Brewers AA) where he allowed just one hit and two walks over seven shutout innings, giving him a 1.02 ERA and a 0.61 WHIP over his first three starts. Then, on Saturday, something amazing happened. Taking the mound in Mobile (Angels AA), Mahle retired all 27 BayBears that he faced to throw the Southern League's first perfect game since 1970, striking out eight. What's even more amazing is that he did it on just 88 pitches. For the season, he now has a 0.68 ERA, a 0.45 WHIP, and a 27/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 26.2 innings as he has allowed just two runs on seven hits and five walks. The 22 year old looks like a potential number four starter for the Reds in the near future.