First 5 rounds: Carter Stewart (1-8), Greyson Jenista (2-49), Tristan Beck (4-112), Trey Riley (5-142)
Also notable: Andrew Moritz (6-172), Jake Higginbotham (11-322), Nolan Kingham (12-352), Brendan Venter (13-382), Zach Hess (34-1012)
The Braves didn't make their third selection until pick #112, but they still somehow managed to put together a very talented class because that's just what they do. Their farm system is already elite, and that's because of their excellent player development, and it definitely got better with this draft. They like to go for high-ceiling types, which is what they did here for the most part, and they usually hit on those guys, especially pitchers.
1-8: RHP Carter Stewart (my rank: 6)
Stewart shot up boards this spring, and by the end of it he was the top high school right handed pitcher in the class. The projectable 6'6" righty from Florida's Space Coast grew up a Braves fan, and now he's throwing in the mid 90's with a big dropping power curveball and a changeup that's coming along. On top of that, Stewart commands everything fairly well, not necessarily with pinpoint command but enough to set himself apart with other, wilder stuff-oriented pitchers. His delivery is deliberate and includes long arm action, but it's clean overall and there's no reason to think he won't be able to improve his command further. He has ace potential as a harder throwing Adam Wainwright, a fellow Braves first round pick out of high school on the south Atlantic coast, and there is no better place to reach that potential than in the Braves' system. He has not signed yet, with slot value sitting just under $5 million.
2-49: 1B Greyson Jenista (my rank: 25)
Jenista played for Wichita State, where he slashed .309/.446/.475 with nine home runs and a 41/50 strikeout to walk ratio. He's a big guy at 6'4" and 240 pounds, but he moves well for his size and actually stole 12 bases in 13 tries this year. Also despite his size, he's more contact and on-base ability over power at this point, keeping his strikeout rate at a reasonable 15.7% while walking at an excellent 19.2% rate to run his OBP up to .446, spraying line drives all over the field. I do see more power potential beyond the nine home runs he hit this year, and not just because of his size, as his swing is explosive and he leaves his hands back for a long time. Adding loft could help him hit 20-30 home runs per season, and he was drafted as a first baseman but does have the ability to play some outfield without being a liability. There were some complaints that he sometimes struggled with breaking stuff or against advanced pitching, which knocked him down to the second round, but I definitely like the bat. Jenista signed for $1.2 million, which saves the Braves $250,500 on slot value, and he's slashing .250/.348/.500 with three home runs and a 9/6 strikeout to walk ratio in ten games in the rookie level Appalachian League.
4-112: RHP Tristan Beck (my rank: 41)
Beck is a second or third round talent here in the fourth round. Both college baseball fans and draft fans should be very familiar with Beck, who served as the Stanford ace in 2016 and 2018 and was a top draft prospect in 2015 and 2017 in addition to 2018. Because he was old for his class with a June birthday, he was eligible for that 2017 draft, and a huge freshman season (6-5, 2.48 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 76/26 K/BB) had him slated to go as early as the back of the first round. However, he missed the entire season with a back injury and elected to return to school instead of sign, but took a slight step back this year. Through 15 starts, he went 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 73/31 strikeout to walk ratio in 90.2 innings, with his stuff reportedly taking a step back. He's more command over stuff, showing a low 90's fastball, a curveball that looked plus as a freshman but that has flattened out a little this year, and a very good changeup that can be an out pitch when the curve isn't on. He commands it all well usually, but that command wasn't quite as crisp this year as he was his freshman year. Essentially, you're looking at a bona fide mid rotation starter if he gets back to that freshman form, but he may be more of a #4 or #5 starter if he can't. As I said with Stewart, the Braves know how to get the most out of these guys. He hasn't signed yet, and though slot value is $497,800, he'll likely need a much higher bonus.
5-142: RHP Trey Riley (my rank: 98)
I couldn't find much video on Riley when I was researching him prior to the draft, but the scouting reports like him. He's a 6'2" righty out of John A. Logan Community College, the powerhouse JuCo in southern Illinois that also produced Orioles 2016 second rounder Matthias Dietz. Riley is likely a reliever, showing a quick arm that produces low to mid 90's fastballs and a very good slider to go along with a mediocre changeup. The changeup will have to take a leap forward if he wants to start, but if he gets put in the bullpen, he'll be able to scrap the changeup and sit in the mid 90's with his fastball and buckle hitters' knees with the slider. I especially don't think he sticks in the rotation given the Braves incredible pitching depth in their minor leagues. He signed for $450,000, which is $78,100 above slot. Through 2.1 innings in the Appy League, he has allowed three earned runs (11.57 ERA) on two hits, four walks, a hit by pitch, and three strikeouts.
Others: 6th rounder Andrew Moritz is notable for batting .406 at UNC-Greensboro over his entire three year career, finishing it off with a .428/.492/.637 line, six home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 27/28 strikeout to walk ratio in 54 games this year. The stat line says it all, as he is a contact-oriented hitter who doesn't miss much (10.7% strikeout rate this year), and he may have enough speed to stick in center field. Though he won't hit home runs, he has plenty of gap power with that speed and line drive bat. The one thing that scares me off Moritz a bit is his .243/.323/.279 slash line and 22/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 30 games in the Cape Cod League last summer, which raises the question of if his excellent stats this year are just a product of him playing weaker competition in the Southern Conference. 11th rounder Jake Higginbotham did a great job stepping back into the Clemson rotation this year (6-1, 3.47 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 63/32 K/BB) after missing 2017 with an elbow injury, but he likely profiles as a reliever at the next level. The lefty should be able to run his fastball into the mid 90's and get additional outs with his pretty good slider if put in the 'pen. 12th rounder Nolan Kingham is a well known college arm who had a much better season in his sophomore season at Texas (10-4, 2.84 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 67/24 K/BB) than in his junior season (8-5, 4.57 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 81/24 K/BB). His fastball has lost velocity and now sits around 90 after hitting 97 last year, which now gives less contrast with his hard upper 80's slider. He hasn't signed yet and I'm not sure that he will at all. 13th rounder Brendan Venter is another college performer (in case you haven't picked up what kind of players I like to highlight in this section), slashing .307/.385/.510 with 12 home runs and a 45/19 strikeout to walk ratio at Auburn this year. There is power in his bat, and he has a knack for hard contact, though his plate discipline definitely needs work. He was drafted as a first baseman so the bat will have to carry him. 34th rounder Zach Hess is more of a third or fourth round talent (he ranked #102 on my list) so he likely won't sign here unless the Braves take a significant chunk of money out of their bonus pool. He's a relief prospect out of LSU who was much better in 2017 (3.12 ERA, 83/30 K/BB) than he was this year (5.05 ERA, 107/49 K/BB). The 6'6" righty can hit the upper 90's when used in relief, and his slider can be a wipeout pitch. He'll try to rebuild his stock next year in Baton Rouge.
Showing posts with label Tristan Beck. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tristan Beck. Show all posts
Sunday, July 1, 2018
Monday, June 4, 2018
2018 MLB Draft: Top 10 College RHP's
College right handers are always popular on draft day, as they are often close to finished products and can get to the major leagues pretty quickly. Casey Mize is all but certain to go first overall, and four of these guys will almost certainly go in the first round. Five of the first seven guys on this list come from the SEC, which isn't surprising when you realize that Max Scherzer (Missouri), Sonny Gray (Vanderbilt), Aaron Nola (LSU), Michael Wacha (Texas A&M), Lance Lynn (Ole Miss), and plenty more were all SEC right handers.
1. Casey Mize (Auburn)
Nothing is ever a sure thing with the draft, but all signs point to Mize going first overall to the Tigers and have for a while. A year after one of the most dominant seasons in recent SEC history in 2017 (8-2, 2.04 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 109/9 K/BB), Mize came right back with another huge season in 2018. Across 16 starts, the 6'3" righty went 10-5 with a 2.95 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 151/12 strikeout to walk ratio across 109.2 innings, showcasing premium stuff and excellent command. He may not be all that projectable, but that is okay when the finished product throws mid 90's with an un-hittable splitter, a good slider, and the ability to command all three pitches wherever he wants them. He has a track record of success in the SEC and has very few flaws associated with his profile. To nitpick, he was shut down at the end of his sophomore season, but that didn't happen this year, though he did have a couple of so-so starts towards the end of this year.
2. Brady Singer (Florida)
Brady Singer will make it three straight years that a Florida Gator starting pitcher was drafted in the first eighteen picks, following A.J. Puk (6th overall, 2016) and Alex Faedo (18th overall, 2017). Singer dominated the powerful SEC as a sophomore last year (9-5, 3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 129/32 K/BB), then was even better this year, at least statistically, going 11-1 with a 2.27 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 98/19 strikeout to walk ratio across 95 innings. He is your prototypical top of the draft starting pitcher, bringing in a track record of performance, pitcher's frame (6'5", 180 lbs), a smooth delivery, a fastball in the mid 90's, a slider that is un-hittable at its best, a good changeup, and plenty of control to make it all work together. In addition, he is said to have a good work ethic and a true pitcher's mentality on the mound. Some scouts knock him for his inconsistency and his three quarters arm slot, but he still projects to go anywhere in the top half of the first round.
3. Logan Gilbert (Stetson)
Gilbert is a bit tough to project, having dominated both the Cape Cod League (1.72 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 31/4 K/BB) and the Atlantic Sun Conference in college, but he has been inconsistent at times and has a wide range of projections for a first round college starting pitcher. He turned in a very good season in 2018 (11-1, 2.52 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 157/23 K/BB), with the strikeout rate (38.1%) in particular standing out. Mid-major college hitters had no chance against Gilbert's stuff, and when he's at his best, it's truly premium. He is 6'5" and projectable, throwing in the mid 90's at his best with a very good slider, a curveball, a good changeup, and enough control to make it work. However, there have been times when he has dipped into the low 90's and his stuff has flattened out a bit, which pushes him out of top ten consideration, but a team confident in their ability to bring his best out of him could take him in the middle of the first round. The combination of strikeout stuff, Cape performance, and projectability is very valuable.
4. Jackson Kowar (Florida)
We're on number four and still haven't made it north of southern Alabama, but that's okay. The 6'5" Kowar pitches in the same Gator rotation as Brady Singer, and at times, he has been better than his more well-known counterpart. Kowar also took a step forward statistically this season, going 9-4 with a 3.21 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 91/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 92.2 innings in the tough SEC. He's a different pitcher than Singer, as his breaking ball, a curve, isn't nearly as advanced, and he relies on a changeup as his primary offspeed pitch. That changeup is excellent, generating tons of swings and misses, and will buy his curveball time to develop. Meanwhile, his fastball already sits in the mid 90's, and with his projectable frame, it could get even faster. His control is just average, and improving that could be his key to success even if he doesn't improve the curve. His draft range is the same as Gilbert's, somewhere in the middle of the first round.
5. Tristan Beck (Stanford)
There is a big gap between Gilbert/Kowar and the next best college righty available, Tristan Beck, but Beck still has the upside of a #3 or #4 starter. The 6'4" Stanford ace was eligible last year and could have been a first round pick if he hadn't hurt his back and missed the season, so he's back again this year and figures to go somewhere just outside the first round. Beck hasn't quite taken the step forward scouts were hoping for this year, finishing 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 73/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.2 innings. His stuff hasn't been quite as sharp as it was his healthy freshman season, though where it is now is still pretty good. He throws in the low 90's without much movement, and his curve is still good despite losing some bite from two years ago. The changeup is his out pitch, and he commands it well, giving him three solid pitches from a clean delivery. His command is pretty good overall, enough to make his stuff play up and get him to the majors, but it's not quite plus and it won't make him an impact starter on its own. His age also is a negative, as he turns 22 just a few weeks after the draft.
6. Sean Hjelle (Kentucky)
The first thing that stands out about Hjelle, and the first thing you'll hear in any scouting report about him, is that he's 6'11". If he makes the majors, he'll tie Jon Rauch as the tallest player in major league history. He's a true string bean, so if he can add some good weight, there is a world of projection. Hjelle currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball and throws a pretty good curveball, and his slider and changeup fill out his arsenal. Despite his exceptional height, he commands his pitches very well, and the downward plane he generates helps all of his pitches play up. There is always injury risk with a player of his size, but so far he has proven durable and his athleticism should help mitigate at least some of those concerns. He finished his junior season 7-5 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, striking out 91 and walking 22 in 99 innings mostly against tough SEC hitting, and he figures to go somewhere in the second round.
7. Blaine Knight (Arkansas)
Like Beck, Knight was eligible as a sophomore last season, but he didn't sign when teams failed to meet his lofty price tag. He improved his stats somewhat this year, going 11-0 with a 2.74 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings. There is a little bit of tweener risk here, but Knight does have very good present stuff that includes a low to mid 90's fastball, a pretty good slider, a curve, and a changeup, all of which he can land for strikes. One knock against him is his size, because despite his 6'3" height, he is very skinny and probably won't be able to add much weight, meaning possible durability issues down the line. His drafting team will run him out as a starter at first and see how long he can last, though he may ultimately be destined for the bullpen. Like Beck, he is a little older and will turn 22 shortly after the draft, where he is projected to go in the second round.
8. Griffin Roberts (Wake Forest)
Roberts is definitely an interesting arm. The 6'3" righty was also eligible last season, but obviously didn't sign. That year, he was a lights out reliever, posting a 2.19 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an 80/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 innings, showing premium stuff and mediocre command. Wake Forest moved him to the rotation this spring with mixed results, as he finished 5-4 with a 3.82 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 130/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings. His walk rate actually improved and he continued to strike out an absurd number of hitters, but he was hit a bit harder. There is effort in his delivery and his changeup isn't all that advanced, so there is a very good chance he could end up a reliever, but he'd be excellent there. In short spurts, his fastball sits in the mid 90's and his slider is one of the best breaking balls in the class, though he loses a few MPH off that fastball as a starter and the slider more plus than plus-plus in long outings. He'll probably go in the second or third round, and his drafting team will likely try him out as a starter, but his home is probably in the bullpen, where his fastball/slider combination can be deadly. Like Beck and Knight, he also is old with a June birthday and will be 22 shortly after the draft.
9. Aaron Hernandez (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)
Of no relation to the deceased ex-football player, Hernandez is a very interesting prospect in his own right. The 6'2" righty throws a sinking low to mid 90's fastball with a curveball, slider, and changeup that all grade out as above average, and he has proven that he can maintain that stuff deep into starts. Those are the pros. On the negative side, he missed his entire sophomore season after being ruled academically ineligible to play, and when he came back for his junior year, he was hit harder than he should have been, going 3-5 with a 4.55 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 102/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings in a less competitive Southland Conference. His strikeout rate is promising, but his crouch and drive delivery leads to a favorable angle for hitters to see and attack his pitches. I personally think pro coaching can help him alter that delivery enough to get the most out of his stuff. He did survive the Cape Cod League in a small sample, striking out eleven and walking four in ten innings. He projects anywhere in the second through fourth rounds.
10. Durbin Feltman (Texas Christian)
While Griffin Roberts will probably end up in the bullpen, Durbin Feltman is the only pure relief prospect on this list. His numbers were excellent at TCU, as he put up a 0.74 ERA, a matching 0.74 WHIP, and a 43/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings out of the bullpen. He had this success with a mid to upper 90's fastball that has hit 99 in the past as well as very good slider, despite coming in at just 6'1". The command is there as well, and he could be the first player in this class to reach the major leagues. He projects to come off the board sometime in the second or third rounds, though college relievers can go earlier than expected if a team wants an impact soon.
Others: Colton Eastman (Cal State Fullerton), Dylan Coleman (Missouri State), Mitchell Kilkenny (Texas A&M), Sean Wymer (TCU), Jonathan Stiever (Indiana)
1. Casey Mize (Auburn)
Nothing is ever a sure thing with the draft, but all signs point to Mize going first overall to the Tigers and have for a while. A year after one of the most dominant seasons in recent SEC history in 2017 (8-2, 2.04 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 109/9 K/BB), Mize came right back with another huge season in 2018. Across 16 starts, the 6'3" righty went 10-5 with a 2.95 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 151/12 strikeout to walk ratio across 109.2 innings, showcasing premium stuff and excellent command. He may not be all that projectable, but that is okay when the finished product throws mid 90's with an un-hittable splitter, a good slider, and the ability to command all three pitches wherever he wants them. He has a track record of success in the SEC and has very few flaws associated with his profile. To nitpick, he was shut down at the end of his sophomore season, but that didn't happen this year, though he did have a couple of so-so starts towards the end of this year.
2. Brady Singer (Florida)
Brady Singer will make it three straight years that a Florida Gator starting pitcher was drafted in the first eighteen picks, following A.J. Puk (6th overall, 2016) and Alex Faedo (18th overall, 2017). Singer dominated the powerful SEC as a sophomore last year (9-5, 3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 129/32 K/BB), then was even better this year, at least statistically, going 11-1 with a 2.27 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 98/19 strikeout to walk ratio across 95 innings. He is your prototypical top of the draft starting pitcher, bringing in a track record of performance, pitcher's frame (6'5", 180 lbs), a smooth delivery, a fastball in the mid 90's, a slider that is un-hittable at its best, a good changeup, and plenty of control to make it all work together. In addition, he is said to have a good work ethic and a true pitcher's mentality on the mound. Some scouts knock him for his inconsistency and his three quarters arm slot, but he still projects to go anywhere in the top half of the first round.
3. Logan Gilbert (Stetson)
Gilbert is a bit tough to project, having dominated both the Cape Cod League (1.72 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 31/4 K/BB) and the Atlantic Sun Conference in college, but he has been inconsistent at times and has a wide range of projections for a first round college starting pitcher. He turned in a very good season in 2018 (11-1, 2.52 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 157/23 K/BB), with the strikeout rate (38.1%) in particular standing out. Mid-major college hitters had no chance against Gilbert's stuff, and when he's at his best, it's truly premium. He is 6'5" and projectable, throwing in the mid 90's at his best with a very good slider, a curveball, a good changeup, and enough control to make it work. However, there have been times when he has dipped into the low 90's and his stuff has flattened out a bit, which pushes him out of top ten consideration, but a team confident in their ability to bring his best out of him could take him in the middle of the first round. The combination of strikeout stuff, Cape performance, and projectability is very valuable.
4. Jackson Kowar (Florida)
We're on number four and still haven't made it north of southern Alabama, but that's okay. The 6'5" Kowar pitches in the same Gator rotation as Brady Singer, and at times, he has been better than his more well-known counterpart. Kowar also took a step forward statistically this season, going 9-4 with a 3.21 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 91/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 92.2 innings in the tough SEC. He's a different pitcher than Singer, as his breaking ball, a curve, isn't nearly as advanced, and he relies on a changeup as his primary offspeed pitch. That changeup is excellent, generating tons of swings and misses, and will buy his curveball time to develop. Meanwhile, his fastball already sits in the mid 90's, and with his projectable frame, it could get even faster. His control is just average, and improving that could be his key to success even if he doesn't improve the curve. His draft range is the same as Gilbert's, somewhere in the middle of the first round.
5. Tristan Beck (Stanford)
There is a big gap between Gilbert/Kowar and the next best college righty available, Tristan Beck, but Beck still has the upside of a #3 or #4 starter. The 6'4" Stanford ace was eligible last year and could have been a first round pick if he hadn't hurt his back and missed the season, so he's back again this year and figures to go somewhere just outside the first round. Beck hasn't quite taken the step forward scouts were hoping for this year, finishing 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 73/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.2 innings. His stuff hasn't been quite as sharp as it was his healthy freshman season, though where it is now is still pretty good. He throws in the low 90's without much movement, and his curve is still good despite losing some bite from two years ago. The changeup is his out pitch, and he commands it well, giving him three solid pitches from a clean delivery. His command is pretty good overall, enough to make his stuff play up and get him to the majors, but it's not quite plus and it won't make him an impact starter on its own. His age also is a negative, as he turns 22 just a few weeks after the draft.
6. Sean Hjelle (Kentucky)
The first thing that stands out about Hjelle, and the first thing you'll hear in any scouting report about him, is that he's 6'11". If he makes the majors, he'll tie Jon Rauch as the tallest player in major league history. He's a true string bean, so if he can add some good weight, there is a world of projection. Hjelle currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball and throws a pretty good curveball, and his slider and changeup fill out his arsenal. Despite his exceptional height, he commands his pitches very well, and the downward plane he generates helps all of his pitches play up. There is always injury risk with a player of his size, but so far he has proven durable and his athleticism should help mitigate at least some of those concerns. He finished his junior season 7-5 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, striking out 91 and walking 22 in 99 innings mostly against tough SEC hitting, and he figures to go somewhere in the second round.
7. Blaine Knight (Arkansas)
Like Beck, Knight was eligible as a sophomore last season, but he didn't sign when teams failed to meet his lofty price tag. He improved his stats somewhat this year, going 11-0 with a 2.74 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings. There is a little bit of tweener risk here, but Knight does have very good present stuff that includes a low to mid 90's fastball, a pretty good slider, a curve, and a changeup, all of which he can land for strikes. One knock against him is his size, because despite his 6'3" height, he is very skinny and probably won't be able to add much weight, meaning possible durability issues down the line. His drafting team will run him out as a starter at first and see how long he can last, though he may ultimately be destined for the bullpen. Like Beck, he is a little older and will turn 22 shortly after the draft, where he is projected to go in the second round.
8. Griffin Roberts (Wake Forest)
Roberts is definitely an interesting arm. The 6'3" righty was also eligible last season, but obviously didn't sign. That year, he was a lights out reliever, posting a 2.19 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an 80/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 innings, showing premium stuff and mediocre command. Wake Forest moved him to the rotation this spring with mixed results, as he finished 5-4 with a 3.82 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 130/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings. His walk rate actually improved and he continued to strike out an absurd number of hitters, but he was hit a bit harder. There is effort in his delivery and his changeup isn't all that advanced, so there is a very good chance he could end up a reliever, but he'd be excellent there. In short spurts, his fastball sits in the mid 90's and his slider is one of the best breaking balls in the class, though he loses a few MPH off that fastball as a starter and the slider more plus than plus-plus in long outings. He'll probably go in the second or third round, and his drafting team will likely try him out as a starter, but his home is probably in the bullpen, where his fastball/slider combination can be deadly. Like Beck and Knight, he also is old with a June birthday and will be 22 shortly after the draft.
9. Aaron Hernandez (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)
Of no relation to the deceased ex-football player, Hernandez is a very interesting prospect in his own right. The 6'2" righty throws a sinking low to mid 90's fastball with a curveball, slider, and changeup that all grade out as above average, and he has proven that he can maintain that stuff deep into starts. Those are the pros. On the negative side, he missed his entire sophomore season after being ruled academically ineligible to play, and when he came back for his junior year, he was hit harder than he should have been, going 3-5 with a 4.55 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 102/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings in a less competitive Southland Conference. His strikeout rate is promising, but his crouch and drive delivery leads to a favorable angle for hitters to see and attack his pitches. I personally think pro coaching can help him alter that delivery enough to get the most out of his stuff. He did survive the Cape Cod League in a small sample, striking out eleven and walking four in ten innings. He projects anywhere in the second through fourth rounds.
10. Durbin Feltman (Texas Christian)
While Griffin Roberts will probably end up in the bullpen, Durbin Feltman is the only pure relief prospect on this list. His numbers were excellent at TCU, as he put up a 0.74 ERA, a matching 0.74 WHIP, and a 43/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings out of the bullpen. He had this success with a mid to upper 90's fastball that has hit 99 in the past as well as very good slider, despite coming in at just 6'1". The command is there as well, and he could be the first player in this class to reach the major leagues. He projects to come off the board sometime in the second or third rounds, though college relievers can go earlier than expected if a team wants an impact soon.
Others: Colton Eastman (Cal State Fullerton), Dylan Coleman (Missouri State), Mitchell Kilkenny (Texas A&M), Sean Wymer (TCU), Jonathan Stiever (Indiana)
Saturday, June 17, 2017
2017 Draft Review: New York Yankees
First 5 rounds: Clarke Schmidt (1-16), Matt Sauer (2-54), Trevor Stephan (3-92), Canaan Smith (4-122), Glenn Otto (5-152).
Also notable: Dalton Lehnen (6-182), Tristan Beck (29-872), Jake Mangum (30-902), Tanner Burns (37-1112).
The Yankees employed an interesting draft strategy here, leaning heavily on right handed pitching, as nine of their first eleven picks were right handed pitchers, an a tenth was a left handed pitcher. However, they did a good job in the early rounds of at least diversifying the types of pitchers they drafted (more on that below). It looks like they will try to cut a deal with first rounder Clarke Schmidt, and use that saved money to try to sign second rounder Matt Sauer and possibly fallers Tristan Beck and Tanner Burns, as Jake Mangum has said he will not sign. The Yankees have been pretty good at developing pitching lately, with homegrown guys like Luis Severino, Jordan Montgomery, Giovanny Gallegos, Chance Adams, and Domingo Acevedo making or looking to make an impact on the big league club. Additionally, former first rounders Ian Clarkin and James Kaprielian have run into their share of issues, but they are 22 and 23 respectively and far from being lost causes. With all this new pitching coming into the system, those ranks could grow even larger.
1-16: RHP Clarke Schmidt (my rank: 34)
The Yankees reached down the board for a money saver here, but Schmidt could easily end up providing first round value for New York in his own right. The South Carolina ace was 4-2 with a 1.34 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP when he went down with Tommy John surgery in April, potentially pushing himself into top ten consideration had he stayed healthy and maintained the performance. However, Schmidt had durability questions before the injury, and missing a year gives more grounds for concern. That said, he doesn't have too many weaknesses on the mound, with a low 90's sinker that will play well in Yankee Stadium and a slider/changeup combo that gives him one of the better arsenals in the class.
2-54: RHP Matt Sauer (my rank: 29)
As you can see, I ranked Sauer slightly higher than Schmidt, though Sauer will be much more expensive as a high schooler with a commitment to Arizona. Sauer is a raw right handed pitcher, though he has a very high ceiling. He has terrible mechanics, but he still runs his fastball into the mid 90's with a slider that is absolutely nasty on the right days. If he's so good while doing everything wrong, imagine how good he can be once he starts doing things right. Of course, with the need to rework his delivery, there is heightened risk, and he could very well end up in the bullpen if he continues to use lots of effort in his delivery.
3-92: RHP Trevor Stephan (my rank: 104)
Stephan is a 6'5" college righty from Arkansas, with one of the better fastballs in the draft. It sits in the low to mid 90's, and he commands it well to help it play up. His slider and changeup need work, though both secondaries showed progress this year and he could cut it as a starter if he continues with the trajectory he's currently on.
4-122: OF Canaan Smith (unranked)
No, not the country singer. A catcher in high school, the Yankees drafted their lone hitter of the first eleven rounds as an outfielder. According to Baseball America, Smith walked 57 times this year, which is among the top ten single season totals in high school history, so he obviously has a patient approach. There's thunder in his left handed bat, too, though he'll need to learn to get his upper and lower halves on time together. It's a very interesting offensive package, one that will require some fine tuning but one that could pay off in a big way down the road.
5-152: RHP Glenn Otto (my rank: 105)
Back to the right handed pitchers. Otto has been a well-known name for the Rice Owls for some time now, spending his entire career in the bullpen and serving the last two seasons as the team's closer. He wasn't quite as dominant as teams would have hoped for in 2017, which is why he slid to the fifth round, but he brings a plus fastball/curveball combination from a durable, 6'4" frame. Some teams think he can start, and I'm not sure how the Yankees feel, but command issues plus the lack of a third pitch will make that difficult. He could be in the Bronx bullpen fairly soon if he remains a reliever.
29-872: RHP Tristan Beck (my rank: 33)
Tristan Beck was in the running to be drafted in the top ten picks before he blew out his back and had to miss the season, but he still had a chance of going in the top 30-40 picks if he hadn't fallen due to (what my guess is) signability. A draft-eligible sophomore, if he doesn't sign with New York, he'll be able to return to Stanford as a redshirt-sophomore and still have plenty of leverage in next year's draft. When he's healthy, Beck shows a full arsenal that could make him an above-average MLB starting pitcher if not better, and he would have had one of the higher floors in this draft class had he not gotten hurt. Yankees fans should be excited if Beck signs, but I doubt it happens in the 29th round.
37-1112: RHP Tanner Burns (my rank: 43)
Burns is another right handed pitcher (sense the theme?) that fell due to signability, and he probably has even less of a chance of signing than Beck. Burns is a stocky, 6' Alabama high schooler who has as high a floor as any high school pitcher (this is the only time you will hear "floor" and "high school pitcher" in the same sentence). A very competent moundsman, he throws in the low 90's but accompanies his fastball with a solid curveball and a decent changeup. He commands it all well, but it looks like he's headed to Auburn, where he could turn himself into a Griffin Canning-type pitcher in three years.
Others: 6th rounder Dalton Lehnen has the distinction of being one of only two players to have been drafted out of a school in South Dakota this year, the other being SD State catcher Luke Ringhofer, who went to the Orioles in the 22nd round. Lehnen, out of Augustana College, has a profile very similar to that of Trevor Stephan, though Lehnen is left handed and less proven. Though I attend Virginia Tech, I have gotten surprisingly few chances to see 15th rounder Aaron McGarity throw, as he was limited to just ten appearances last year and seemed to rarely pitch when I was at the games this year. In the few times I did get to see the senior right hander throw, he ran his fastball into the low 90's and flashed a power breaking ball that could miss bats. At 6'3", 180 lbs, he is more projectable than the typical 22 year old, but he'll have to improve his command and prove he can hold up to a full season's work if he wants to cut it in pro ball. 30th rounder Jake Mangum ranked 143rd on my list as a speedy leadoff type at Mississippi State, but he has already announced that he will not sign, making any discussion here moot. Mangum's freshman season rocked the SEC, as he slashed .408/.458/.510 for the Bulldogs, but he slumped to .324/.380/.385 as a draft-eligible sophomore this year. 33rd rounder Jacob Stevens, you guessed it, a right handed pitcher, will likely return to school to re-establish his draft stock. He dominated as a freshman at Boston College last year (2.54 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 70/33 K/BB as a starter), but struggled as a draft-eligible sophomore this year (5.10 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 73/42 K/BB). If the Yankees sign him and get him back to his 2016 form, this is a steal in the late rounds.
Also notable: Dalton Lehnen (6-182), Tristan Beck (29-872), Jake Mangum (30-902), Tanner Burns (37-1112).
The Yankees employed an interesting draft strategy here, leaning heavily on right handed pitching, as nine of their first eleven picks were right handed pitchers, an a tenth was a left handed pitcher. However, they did a good job in the early rounds of at least diversifying the types of pitchers they drafted (more on that below). It looks like they will try to cut a deal with first rounder Clarke Schmidt, and use that saved money to try to sign second rounder Matt Sauer and possibly fallers Tristan Beck and Tanner Burns, as Jake Mangum has said he will not sign. The Yankees have been pretty good at developing pitching lately, with homegrown guys like Luis Severino, Jordan Montgomery, Giovanny Gallegos, Chance Adams, and Domingo Acevedo making or looking to make an impact on the big league club. Additionally, former first rounders Ian Clarkin and James Kaprielian have run into their share of issues, but they are 22 and 23 respectively and far from being lost causes. With all this new pitching coming into the system, those ranks could grow even larger.
1-16: RHP Clarke Schmidt (my rank: 34)
The Yankees reached down the board for a money saver here, but Schmidt could easily end up providing first round value for New York in his own right. The South Carolina ace was 4-2 with a 1.34 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP when he went down with Tommy John surgery in April, potentially pushing himself into top ten consideration had he stayed healthy and maintained the performance. However, Schmidt had durability questions before the injury, and missing a year gives more grounds for concern. That said, he doesn't have too many weaknesses on the mound, with a low 90's sinker that will play well in Yankee Stadium and a slider/changeup combo that gives him one of the better arsenals in the class.
2-54: RHP Matt Sauer (my rank: 29)
As you can see, I ranked Sauer slightly higher than Schmidt, though Sauer will be much more expensive as a high schooler with a commitment to Arizona. Sauer is a raw right handed pitcher, though he has a very high ceiling. He has terrible mechanics, but he still runs his fastball into the mid 90's with a slider that is absolutely nasty on the right days. If he's so good while doing everything wrong, imagine how good he can be once he starts doing things right. Of course, with the need to rework his delivery, there is heightened risk, and he could very well end up in the bullpen if he continues to use lots of effort in his delivery.
3-92: RHP Trevor Stephan (my rank: 104)
Stephan is a 6'5" college righty from Arkansas, with one of the better fastballs in the draft. It sits in the low to mid 90's, and he commands it well to help it play up. His slider and changeup need work, though both secondaries showed progress this year and he could cut it as a starter if he continues with the trajectory he's currently on.
4-122: OF Canaan Smith (unranked)
No, not the country singer. A catcher in high school, the Yankees drafted their lone hitter of the first eleven rounds as an outfielder. According to Baseball America, Smith walked 57 times this year, which is among the top ten single season totals in high school history, so he obviously has a patient approach. There's thunder in his left handed bat, too, though he'll need to learn to get his upper and lower halves on time together. It's a very interesting offensive package, one that will require some fine tuning but one that could pay off in a big way down the road.
5-152: RHP Glenn Otto (my rank: 105)
Back to the right handed pitchers. Otto has been a well-known name for the Rice Owls for some time now, spending his entire career in the bullpen and serving the last two seasons as the team's closer. He wasn't quite as dominant as teams would have hoped for in 2017, which is why he slid to the fifth round, but he brings a plus fastball/curveball combination from a durable, 6'4" frame. Some teams think he can start, and I'm not sure how the Yankees feel, but command issues plus the lack of a third pitch will make that difficult. He could be in the Bronx bullpen fairly soon if he remains a reliever.
29-872: RHP Tristan Beck (my rank: 33)
Tristan Beck was in the running to be drafted in the top ten picks before he blew out his back and had to miss the season, but he still had a chance of going in the top 30-40 picks if he hadn't fallen due to (what my guess is) signability. A draft-eligible sophomore, if he doesn't sign with New York, he'll be able to return to Stanford as a redshirt-sophomore and still have plenty of leverage in next year's draft. When he's healthy, Beck shows a full arsenal that could make him an above-average MLB starting pitcher if not better, and he would have had one of the higher floors in this draft class had he not gotten hurt. Yankees fans should be excited if Beck signs, but I doubt it happens in the 29th round.
37-1112: RHP Tanner Burns (my rank: 43)
Burns is another right handed pitcher (sense the theme?) that fell due to signability, and he probably has even less of a chance of signing than Beck. Burns is a stocky, 6' Alabama high schooler who has as high a floor as any high school pitcher (this is the only time you will hear "floor" and "high school pitcher" in the same sentence). A very competent moundsman, he throws in the low 90's but accompanies his fastball with a solid curveball and a decent changeup. He commands it all well, but it looks like he's headed to Auburn, where he could turn himself into a Griffin Canning-type pitcher in three years.
Others: 6th rounder Dalton Lehnen has the distinction of being one of only two players to have been drafted out of a school in South Dakota this year, the other being SD State catcher Luke Ringhofer, who went to the Orioles in the 22nd round. Lehnen, out of Augustana College, has a profile very similar to that of Trevor Stephan, though Lehnen is left handed and less proven. Though I attend Virginia Tech, I have gotten surprisingly few chances to see 15th rounder Aaron McGarity throw, as he was limited to just ten appearances last year and seemed to rarely pitch when I was at the games this year. In the few times I did get to see the senior right hander throw, he ran his fastball into the low 90's and flashed a power breaking ball that could miss bats. At 6'3", 180 lbs, he is more projectable than the typical 22 year old, but he'll have to improve his command and prove he can hold up to a full season's work if he wants to cut it in pro ball. 30th rounder Jake Mangum ranked 143rd on my list as a speedy leadoff type at Mississippi State, but he has already announced that he will not sign, making any discussion here moot. Mangum's freshman season rocked the SEC, as he slashed .408/.458/.510 for the Bulldogs, but he slumped to .324/.380/.385 as a draft-eligible sophomore this year. 33rd rounder Jacob Stevens, you guessed it, a right handed pitcher, will likely return to school to re-establish his draft stock. He dominated as a freshman at Boston College last year (2.54 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 70/33 K/BB as a starter), but struggled as a draft-eligible sophomore this year (5.10 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 73/42 K/BB). If the Yankees sign him and get him back to his 2016 form, this is a steal in the late rounds.
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