Saturday, June 17, 2017

2017 Draft Review: New York Yankees

First 5 rounds: Clarke Schmidt (1-16), Matt Sauer (2-54), Trevor Stephan (3-92), Canaan Smith (4-122), Glenn Otto (5-152).
Also notable: Dalton Lehnen (6-182), Tristan Beck (29-872), Jake Mangum (30-902), Tanner Burns (37-1112).

The Yankees employed an interesting draft strategy here, leaning heavily on right handed pitching, as nine of their first eleven picks were right handed pitchers, an a tenth was a left handed pitcher. However, they did a good job in the early rounds of at least diversifying the types of pitchers they drafted (more on that below). It looks like they will try to cut a deal with first rounder Clarke Schmidt, and use that saved money to try to sign second rounder Matt Sauer and possibly fallers Tristan Beck and Tanner Burns, as Jake Mangum has said he will not sign. The Yankees have been pretty good at developing pitching lately, with homegrown guys like Luis Severino, Jordan Montgomery, Giovanny Gallegos, Chance Adams, and Domingo Acevedo making or looking to make an impact on the big league club. Additionally, former first rounders Ian Clarkin and James Kaprielian have run into their share of issues, but they are 22 and 23 respectively and far from being lost causes. With all this new pitching coming into the system, those ranks could grow even larger.

1-16: RHP Clarke Schmidt (my rank: 34)
The Yankees reached down the board for a money saver here, but Schmidt could easily end up providing first round value for New York in his own right. The South Carolina ace was 4-2 with a 1.34 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP when he went down with Tommy John surgery in April, potentially pushing himself into top ten consideration had he stayed healthy and maintained the performance. However, Schmidt had durability questions before the injury, and missing a year gives more grounds for concern. That said, he doesn't have too many weaknesses on the mound, with a low 90's sinker that will play well in Yankee Stadium and a slider/changeup combo that gives him one of the better arsenals in the class.

2-54: RHP Matt Sauer (my rank: 29)
As you can see, I ranked Sauer slightly higher than Schmidt, though Sauer will be much more expensive as a high schooler with a commitment to Arizona. Sauer is a raw right handed pitcher, though he has a very high ceiling. He has terrible mechanics, but he still runs his fastball into the mid 90's with a slider that is absolutely nasty on the right days. If he's so good while doing everything wrong, imagine how good he can be once he starts doing things right. Of course, with the need to rework his delivery, there is heightened risk, and he could very well end up in the bullpen if he continues to use lots of effort in his delivery.

3-92: RHP Trevor Stephan (my rank: 104)
Stephan is a 6'5" college righty from Arkansas, with one of the better fastballs in the draft. It sits in the low to mid 90's, and he commands it well to help it play up. His slider and changeup need work, though both secondaries showed progress this year and he could cut it as a starter if he continues with the trajectory he's currently on.

4-122: OF Canaan Smith (unranked)
No, not the country singer. A catcher in high school, the Yankees drafted their lone hitter of the first eleven rounds as an outfielder. According to Baseball America, Smith walked 57 times this year, which is among the top ten single season totals in high school history, so he obviously has a patient approach. There's thunder in his left handed bat, too, though he'll need to learn to get his upper and lower halves on time together. It's a very interesting offensive package, one that will require some fine tuning but one that could pay off in a big way down the road.

5-152: RHP Glenn Otto (my rank: 105)
Back to the right handed pitchers. Otto has been a well-known name for the Rice Owls for some time now, spending his entire career in the bullpen and serving the last two seasons as the team's closer. He wasn't quite as dominant as teams would have hoped for in 2017, which is why he slid to the fifth round, but he brings a plus fastball/curveball combination from a durable, 6'4" frame. Some teams think he can start, and I'm not sure how the Yankees feel, but command issues plus the lack of a third pitch will make that difficult. He could be in the Bronx bullpen fairly soon if he remains a reliever.

29-872: RHP Tristan Beck (my rank: 33)
Tristan Beck was in the running to be drafted in the top ten picks before he blew out his back and had to miss the season, but he still had a chance of going in the top 30-40 picks if he hadn't fallen due to (what my guess is) signability. A draft-eligible sophomore, if he doesn't sign with New York, he'll be able to return to Stanford as a redshirt-sophomore and still have plenty of leverage in next year's draft. When he's healthy, Beck shows a full arsenal that could make him an above-average MLB starting pitcher if not better, and he would have had one of the higher floors in this draft class had he not gotten hurt. Yankees fans should be excited if Beck signs, but I doubt it happens in the 29th round.

37-1112: RHP Tanner Burns (my rank: 43)
Burns is another right handed pitcher (sense the theme?) that fell due to signability, and he probably has even less of a chance of signing than Beck. Burns is a stocky, 6' Alabama high schooler who has as high a floor as any high school pitcher (this is the only time you will hear "floor" and "high school pitcher" in the same sentence). A very competent moundsman, he throws in the low 90's but accompanies his fastball with a solid curveball and a decent changeup. He commands it all well, but it looks like he's headed to Auburn, where he could turn himself into a Griffin Canning-type pitcher in three years.

Others: 6th rounder Dalton Lehnen has the distinction of being one of only two players to have been drafted out of a school in South Dakota this year, the other being SD State catcher Luke Ringhofer, who went to the Orioles in the 22nd round. Lehnen, out of Augustana College, has a profile very similar to that of Trevor Stephan, though Lehnen is left handed and less proven. Though I attend Virginia Tech, I have gotten surprisingly few chances to see 15th rounder Aaron McGarity throw, as he was limited to just ten appearances last year and seemed to rarely pitch when I was at the games this year. In the few times I did get to see the senior right hander throw, he ran his fastball into the low 90's and flashed a power breaking ball that could miss bats. At 6'3", 180 lbs, he is more projectable than the typical 22 year old, but he'll have to improve his command and prove he can hold up to a full season's work if he wants to cut it in pro ball. 30th rounder Jake Mangum ranked 143rd on my list as a speedy leadoff type at Mississippi State, but he has already announced that he will not sign, making any discussion here moot. Mangum's freshman season rocked the SEC, as he slashed .408/.458/.510 for the Bulldogs, but he slumped to .324/.380/.385 as a draft-eligible sophomore this year. 33rd rounder Jacob Stevens, you guessed it, a right handed pitcher, will likely return to school to re-establish his draft stock. He dominated as a freshman at Boston College last year (2.54 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 70/33 K/BB as a starter), but struggled as a draft-eligible sophomore this year (5.10 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 73/42 K/BB). If the Yankees sign him and get him back to his 2016 form, this is a steal in the late rounds.

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