Wednesday, June 21, 2017

2017 Draft Review: Cleveland Indians

First 5 rounds: Quentin Holmes (2-64), Tyler Freeman (CBB-71), Johnathan Rodriguez (3-102), Ernie Clement (4-132), Austen Wade (5-162).
Also notable: Michael Rivera (6-192), Eli Morgan (8-252), James Karinchak (9-282), Asa Lacy (31-942)

The Indians lacked a first round pick this year, but they were still able to nab a potential first round talent in the second round. They continued their upside picks in the competitive balance round and third round, then went on a long run of safety picks. Because they had that extra competitive balance pick and they got a late-first round talent in the second round, this draft isn't as disappointing as it easily could have been for Indians fans.

2-64: CF Quentin Holmes (my rank: 36)
Assuming they can sign him, this is a great pick in the second round. Holmes is a high upside center fielder with true 80 grade speed, and his whole package of tools gives him Andrew McCutchen type upside. Holmes, out of McClancy HS in Queens, New York, has been lauded by scouts for his excellent makeup and work ethic, and he won't turn 18 until July, making him one of the younger players in the draft. Holmes swing needs some work, especially around the bat path, but he has quick hands and can already get some natural loft on the ball, so the building blocks are there. Combine that with his age and work ethic, and Holmes could be a five tool player in the major leagues.

CBB-71: SS Tyler Freeman (my rank: 114)
The Indians grabbed another high-upside, strong makeup player in the competitive balance round. Freeman is a high schooler from California, where he had an extremely strong spring despite largely average tools. He has a long, flat swing, similar to first rounder Evan White, which doesn't produce much power but can get him on base often. Scouts love his competitiveness and energy, and once his swing path is tweaked and his load is timed up better with his swing, he could grow into average power. He was supposedly going to be a tough sign away from TCU, but the Indians likely drafted him high enough to lure him away.

3-102: OF Johnathan Rodriguez (unranked)
A third straight high-upside pick, Rodriguez comes from Puerto Rico, where Baseball America ranked him the island's fifth best prospect. He's raw and toolsy, and will be a project like Holmes and Freeman. Rodriguez pushes his hands very far back during his load, which could help him wait back on breaking pitches but could give him difficulty catching up to fastballs. With his strong arm and power potential, he'll fit in well as a right fielder down the line.

4-132: 2B Ernie Clement (my rank: 117)
The Indians' fourth round pick has a very unique skillset. He has excellent bat to ball skills, striking out just 31 times (3.7% of his plate appearances) in his entire three year career at the University of Virginia. This year, he kicked it up yet another notch, striking out just seven times total (2.5%). Aside from his insane ability to put the bat on the ball, though, there's not much exciting about him. He has little to no power because of his small frame and his slap style of hitting, doesn't walk much (career high 4.6% in 2017), and will be an average second baseman. He did slash .353/.400/.395 in the Cape Cod League last summer, striking out in just 5.6% of his plate appearances. Clement has a high floor of a quadruple-A journeyman, but he likely will never be an MLB starter. I gave him a Jason Tyner offensive ceiling without the speed.

31-942: LHP Asa Lacy (my rank: 78)
There is essentially a 0% chance that Lacy signs as a 31st round pick, but let's look at this pick just in case a miracle happens. I'm the high guy on Lacy, a left handed pitcher out of a high school in central Texas. The 6'4" lefty has a solid combination of floor and ceiling, as he already possesses advanced command of a full arsenal from a projectable frame. His fastball rarely bumps higher than 91, but it's easy to see him pushing his velocity into the low or even low to mid 90's in time, and he has one of the better changeups in the class. Lacy's curveball needs work, but it shows promise. Ultimately, he could come out of Texas A&M in three years as a first round pick.

Others: 5th rounder Austen Wade had a breakout year for TCU this year, slashing .333/.448/.491 with five home runs, and 15 stolen bases over 60 games so far. He has always shown an extremely advanced approach at the plate, walking in 19.6% of his plate appearances for his career, though he has also struck out in 16%. Unfortunately, he has no carrying tools and is likely a fourth outfielder down the road. 6th rounder Mike Rivera gives the Indians a third straight player who projects as an MLB backup, as he stands just 5'10" and slashed just .241/.344/.346 at Florida this year, but he is an excellent defender and works with pitchers well. 8th rounder Eli Morgan had an excellent career as a starter for Gonzaga (21-5, 3.15 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), but he'll likely end up a reliever due to his below average fastball and curveball. His carrying pitch is easily his excellent changeup, and he had strong enough results on the Cape, where he was mostly a reliever (4.32 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 22/5 K/BB) to make it as a bullpen arm in the pros. 9th rounder James Karinchak had an excellent sophomore season for Bryant University (12-3, 2.00 ERA, 1.19 WHIP), albeit in a weak Northeastern Conference, but injuries slowed down his junior campaign this year (6-3, 3.65 ERA, 1.24 WHIP). When healthy, he projects as a future MLB starter, but the up-and-down junior year, combined with a funky delivery, makes many scouts project him as a reliever. He has difficulty repeating his arm slot when he's not at his best, but this is a very intriguing high-risk, high-upside college pick in the ninth round.

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