First Tier: Royce Lewis, Austin Beck, Jordon Adell
Second Tier: Drew Waters, Bubba Thompson, Garrett Mitchell, Quentin Holmes, Heliot Ramos
Third Tier: Chris Seise, Brady McConnell, Conner Uselton, Cole Brannen, Greg Jones
Others: Jake Holmes, Adam Hall, Ricardo De La Torre, Jordan Anderson
We're going to move into some group draft previews now, focusing on demographics. "Toolsy prep hitters" are easy to dream on; after all, this is where you get the Mike Trouts, Andrew McCutchens, Corey Seagers, and Francisco Lindors. However, very often, it's also where you get the Courtney Hawkins's, Bubba Starlings, and Tim Beckhams, recent first rounders who never even came close to living up to expectations (Beckham was the first overall pick in 2008). You'll see words like "athletic," "risk," and "upside" thrown around a lot with these players. Coming out of high school, these guys are high risk, high reward, and extremely fun to watch.
Tier I (Lewis, Beck, Adell)
Three guys have firmly placed themselves at the top of this list, led by San Diego prep star Royce Lewis. Lewis' main tools are hit and run, where he ranks among the top players of the class, prep or not, and his swing mechanics make it easy to dream on future added power. Austin Beck and Jordon Adell both have similar profiles, known for their power, speed, arm strength, and question marks surrounding their contact abilities. Beck's contact concerns come more from a lack of exposure to high level pitching than to any fault of his own, while Adell's have played out in front of scouts. Beck's power comes from his plus-plus bat speed, while Adell's comes more from his athleticism. Adell is the better defensive player, but Beck is thought of as a slightly lower risk, giving him the slight edge on most draft boards. All three project to come off the board in the first half of the first round, and at least two will likely be gone in the top ten.
Tier II (Waters, Thompson, Mitchell, Holmes, Ramos)
These five players all project to come off the board somewhere in the back half of the first round, supplemental round, or second round. Drew Waters is a personal favorite of mine, a switch hitting outfielder with across the board tools. He doesn't have the limitless raw athleticism of the guys in the first tier, but he is a better bet to hit for contact and has explosive bat speed and above average fielding abilities. Bubba Thompson is likely to be the first player taken out of this tier, as an extremely talented quarterback who had scholarship offers from Ole Miss and Tennessee. The same athleticism that makes him a superstar football player show on the baseball diamond, with the ability to be an impact hitter. Garrett Mitchell is ranked higher on my list than on anybody else's, and he's likely to slide to the back of the second round or even the third round, but his swing and athleticism remind me of Hunter Pence and I think he has the ceiling of a similar player. Quentin Holmes may be the fastest player in this whole draft, clocking in with rare 80 grade speed. A very young high school senior (still 17) that comes from an inner-city, northern school in Queens, he may have highest upside in this tier, made even higher by his reportedly strong makeup. He'll need a lot of development, but speed aside, his swing shows a lot of potential if it can be streamlined by pro coaching. Lastly, Heliot Ramos is a polarizing player, as he two months younger than Holmes, making him one of the very youngest players in the whole draft class. He has a similar profile to Thompson, though he is more than a year younger, has more pop, and has less speed and arm strength. Thompson is a safer bet to maximize his tools, but Ramos has the higher ceiling.
Tier III (Seise, McConnell, Uselton, Brannen, Jones)
None of these five are likely to go before the second round unless they sign an underslot deal, but all have intriguing upside and should be gone by the end of the third round unless signability becomes an issue. Chris Seise is the best player in this tier and I originally had him as a second tier player, but his relatively lower ceiling caused me to drop him to the front of Tier III. An athletic shortstop, his hitting has made big time strides this season, causing MLB.com to actually rank him two spots above Ramos. As a strong defender who can stick at shortstop, further development of his bat will determine if he's a Starlin Castro type starter or a Wilmer Difo type utility man. Brady McConnell entered the spring as a potential first rounder, but an inconsistent senior season has damaged his stock to the point where he's about on-par with or a little below Seise. Like Seise, he's a solid defender, with more range but slightly less arm strength, and his bat profiles similarly a well, even if his mechanics don't. McConnell generates his power by contracting his body then exploding outwards, which means he has a higher offensive ceiling but a lower floor than Seise, as his mechanics are tied to his hand-eye coordination and ability to recognize pitches. Conner Uselton, like Thompson, was a star quarterback, but he's not quite at Thompson's level, either on the football field or the baseball one. He generates some of the biggest power and bat speed in this class, but contact concerns likely drop him out of the first two rounds, as he doesn't have same upside as Adell or Beck to make the risk worthwhile that early. Cole Brannen focuses more on contact, and will likely be the best defender of this group, albeit as an outfielder. Brett Gardner is a realistic ceiling here. Lastly, Greg Jones, like Seise, has some helium going for him. Already 19 and therefore very old for this high school class, Jones' game is a mix of Drew Waters and Quentin Holmes. Like Waters, he's a switch hitter with high upside for his power, but like Holmes, he is among the fastest players in this draft class. He's considerably more raw than Waters, and he doesn't get the plus grades for makeup that Holmes gets, so he's a very risky pick.
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