Saturday, June 24, 2017

2017 Draft Review: Minnesota Twins

First 5 rounds: Royce Lewis (1-1), Brent Rooker (CBA-35), Landon Leach (2-37), Blayne Enlow (3-76), Charlie Barnes (4-106), Andrew Bechtold (5-136)
Also notable: Ricardo De La Torre (6-166), Ryley Widell (7-196), Jordan Spicer (26-766), Griffin Roberts (29-856), Adam Oviedo (35-1036)

The Twins had four of the first 76 picks, including the first overall pick, so they had incredibly high expectations heading in. Obviously, they came in with quite the haul. There's a lot of risk here, with three of those first four picks being high schoolers, but there is a lot of upside. I would say this draft meets expectations; they got a lot of talent, but with so many high picks, that's expected, and there were probably some better picks they could have made.

1-1: SS Royce Lewis (my rank: 5)
I ranked Lewis fifth, but that doesn't mean I don't like this pick. Lewis is, to put it simply, awesome. Though he does have some pitch recognition issues, he's a very advanced hitter, and I think the power will come. He's extremely athletic, and though he may not stick at shortstop, he profiles well as a second baseman or as a center fielder due to his easily plus speed, and his makeup is widely known to be excellent. I'd compare him to Javier Baez because of the similarity in the swing mechanics and athleticism, though Lewis' swing is noticeably more under control than that of Baez, and he will probably strike out much less. He's not quite the defender that Baez is, but he's more athletic. He signed for just over $6.7 million, which is $1.45 million below slot, money which the Twins will use on Landon Leach and Blayne Enlow.

CBA-35: OF Brent Rooker (my rank: 42)
Brent Rooker can absolutely mash. With the 35th pick, the Twins took the player who put up the best season, statistically, in the entire country. Despite playing in the notoriously tough SEC, Rooker slashed .387/.495/.810 with 23 home runs, 30 doubles, three triples, and 18 stolen bases over 67 games for Mississippi State. Basically, he got on base half the time, knocked nearly an extra base hit per game, and stole about a base per week. That's just flat out ridiculous. The only downsides to Rooker are his age (he turns 23 in November), lack of a track record (he slashed "just" .324/.376/.578 with 11 home runs last year), and strikeout rate (18.8%). While he's no defensive star, he should be able to man an outfield corner well enough to not be a liability, but the bat is the real calling card here. He changed his swing this year, and it is now one of the quickest and most powerful in the draft, one that I see helping both his power and average translate up well despite the high strikeout totals. He should be a quick to the big leagues bat who can hit 20 home runs per season or more. Rooker signed for an at-slot bonus of just over $1.9 million.

2-37: RHP Landon Leach (my rank: 77).
This may be my least favorite pick of the draft. By saving almost $1.5 million on Lewis with the first overall pick, the Twins could have gone overslot here, and even though Leach may command a high bonus, I think there were multiple better players for the Twins to take here. That said, by ranking Leach 77th, I actually like him more than both Baseball America (85) and MLB.com (101). Leach is a projectable Canadian high schooler, standing 6'5" with a skinny build that has room for more weight. He sits in the low 90's now with an average curveball, but he hasn't been pitching for very long and he's young for the class. His natural feel for pitching will help him develop his full arsenal, and that decent curveball has a good chance of being a plus pitch with pro coaching. This is a high risk pick, but Leach is the type of pitcher who can turn into a rotation stalwart. Leach has yet to sign.

3-76: RHP Blayne Enlow (my rank: 27)
On the flip side to the Leach pick, this is a great pick, as long as they can sign him. Blayne Enlow, out of a Louisiana high school, is actually a fairly similar pitcher to Leach, but aside from being about nine months older, he has a few extra things going for him. Enlow, who stands at a very projectable 6'4", has a longer track record, better overall command, and a significantly better curveball that is already among the best in the class. He had a tough spring, as his fastball sat closer to 90 than its typical low 90's range, but he still hit 94 late in the season. Enlow could be a top of the rotation arm if everything breaks right, but he will supposedly be a very tough sign, especially in the third round. If he signs, it will certainly be overslot, and probably by a wide margin. He is committed to LSU, where he has dreamed of playing for a long time.

4-106: LHP Charlie Barnes (my rank: 130)
He may not have gotten a great ranking on my list, but it's hard not to like the six foot lefty. Barnes pitched well as Clemson's ace this year (5-5, 3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 113/22 K/BB), showcasing excellent command and a feel for a full, four pitch arsenal. His fastball may be below average, as it sits in the upper 80's and can touch 90 or 91, but he commands it well and it is effective on the corners. He spins a good curveball and a decent slider, but his changeup is his best pitch. He doesn't have a high ceiling and projects as a #5 starter at this point, but he should be quick to the big leagues. I wrote before the draft that Barnes struck me as "the type of guys whose stuff randomly and unexpectedly steps forward in pro ball." If that happens, it will more than justify the fourth round pick here. Barnes signed for $450,000, which is $57,000 below slot.

5-136: 3B Andrew Bechtold (my rank: 124).
The Chipola JC third baseman is an interesting player and a good pick here in the fifth round. Bechtold played his freshman and sophomore years at Maryland, where he struggled to a combined .220/.336/.246 slash line and didn't hit a single home run. Still, his 13.9% overall walk rate showed promise, and he transferred to Chipola for his junior season. There, he blossomed into one of the best JuCo hitters in the country, slashing .419/.532/.676 with 12 home runs and 16 doubles in 60 games. He has a quick uppercut that is somewhat similar to Louisville third baseman and D-Backs second rounder Drew Ellis, one that should produce power in pro ball but may have difficulty translating up in terms of contact. This is a risky pick for a college player, but Bechtold could be a starting third baseman in the major leagues. Bechtold has not signed yet.

26-766: RHP Jordan Spicer (my rank: 108)
I'm a Jordan Spicer fan. Here is another Florida JuCo guy, this one out of Polk State. Spicer probably won't sign here in the 26th round, but if he somehow does, he is a high upside talent. He went 7-0 with a 1.94 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP for Polk State this year, striking out 71 batters in 69.2 innings. He has a low 90's fastball that holds its velocity deep into games, as well as a big breaking curveball and a sharp slider. The curve has early break at this point, but could be a plus pitch in time, especially once he cleans up his inefficient delivery.

Others: 6th rounder Ricardo De La Torre actually cracked MLB.com's original top 50 draft prospect list back in January, though I wasn't sold on him then and wasn't surprised when his draft stock faded. He's a projection play at shortstop, one without big tools but still a solid player all around. His swing is a bit long for my taste, but it has some loft and could lead to average power, and he has a good enough feel for hitting to stick as a utility man. His defense is so-so at shortstop but will work well at second base. 7th rounder Ryley Widell is yet another JuCo pitcher, this time from Central Arizona, where works off a solid fastball/changeup combo and is working on a breaking ball. Standing 6'4" with room for more good weight, he could develop into a back-end starter. 29th rounder Griffin Roberts probably doesn't sign as a draft-eligible sophomore taken in a late round, but the Wake Forest closer dominated the ACC to the tune of a 2.15 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and 75 strikeouts in just 50.1 innings. His command still wobbles (29 walks in those 50.1 innings), and as a college reliever his stuff presumably doesn't have much further projection, but he does throw a low to mid 90's fastball that runs and sinks well to go along with an average slider. He projects as a middle relief option at this point. 35th rounder Adam Oviedo has practically a 0% chance of signing with a strong commitment to TCU, but he just cracked my top 150 at #148 as a scrappy middle infielder with some power projection, but I'm not sold on his overall hitting ability. He'll be interesting to watch at TCU.

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