Tuesday, June 27, 2017

2017 Draft Review: Oakland Athletics

First 5 rounds: Austin Beck (1-6), Kevin Merrell (CBA-33), Greg Deichmann (2-43), Nick Allen (3-81), Will Toffey (4-111), Santi Sanchez (5-141)
Also notable: Parker Dunshee (7-201), Brian Howard (8-231), Jared Poche (9-261), Garrett Mitchell (14-411), Heath Donica (21-621), Hunter Hargrove (25-741)

The A's had a pretty interesting draft, reaching for some players (in my opinion) but also making some good selections. As the draft wore on, they took on a lot of big name college players, which is why you see so many in the "also notable" section, which doesn't even get all of them. As always, the A's placed a premium on guys who know how to get on base, and that should be expected now 15 years after the Moneyball draft.

1-6: OF Austin Beck (my rank: 8)
Beck, a North Carolina high school outfielder, was on nobody's radar at the beginning of the season, but he hit his way not only into the first round, but into the top ten picks, literally right out of the gate. His plus-plus bat speed generates huge power from the right side, and combined with his overall athleticism, he has one of the highest ceilings of his whole draft. If this draft is going to produce any Mike Trouts, Bryce Harpers, or Kris Bryants, Beck has a good chance to be the guy. That said, he is very raw as a player and there is a lot of swing and miss in his game, so the risk is extremely high. Basically, Beck could be Mike Trout, or he could never make the majors. I guess we'll just have to sit back and watch. Beck signed an at-slot bonus of just over $5.3 million.

CBA-33: SS/CF Kevin Merrell (my rank: 75)
Yeah, I don't love this pick. There are a lot of people who really like Merrell, but I just am not one of them, because I don't think any of his power will translate to the next level and he really profiles as a fourth outfielder in my opinion. That said, the USF star's supporters will point to his excellent .384/.464/.569 slash line this season, coupled with seven home runs and 19 stolen bases for the Bulls. He is one of the fastest players in this draft and possibly the fastest in the entire college crop, and his solid bat to ball skills give him a high floor. If he can stick as a shortstop, he has a Jose Reyes ceiling, but his defense at short is so-so and he may have to move to centerfield, where he will be above average defensively. Merrell signed for $1.8 million, which is $233,500 below slot.

2-43: OF Greg Deichmann (my rank: 68)
I also don't love this pick, but I'm more willing to hop on the Deichmann train at pick 43 than I am on the Merrell train at pick 33. Deichmann was decent for LSU in 2016 (.288/.346/.513, 11 HR), but he turned down the Twins in the 26th round. That turned out to be a great decision, as he slashed .309/.418/.583 with 19 home runs for the Tigers this year, showcasing an advanced power bat with desirable leadership skills. There is still a lot of swing and miss in his game (19% strikeout rate), but he does walk a lot (15.8%) and has improved his plate discipline significantly this year. He is on the older side for a college junior, having turned 22 in May, but he can be a 20 homer bat as a corner outfielder down the road. Deichmann has not signed, but it's hard to see him holding out for too long.

3-81: SS Nick Allen (my rank: 23)
Nick Allen is awesome, and if signability wasn't an issue, he could have gone 50 picks higher, or more. On talent alone, Allen is an easy first rounder, perhaps a top ten pick, but he stands just 5'8" with a skinny build, so teams were understandably scared off by his size. However, as I said, he's just awesome. His defensive skills at shortstop are unmatched in this draft, as he shows both incredible range and great arm strength, so there could easily be Gold Gloves in his future. At the plate, he shows very good contact ability, though his power will likely always be well below average due to his size. However, I think he could improve to simply below average power and knock ten home runs per season in the bigs if he can add loft to his swing and stop leaking his power over his front foot. Even without power, he can be an extremely valuable player because of his defense and hitting ability. To top it all off, area scouts absolutely love his character, leadership, intensity, and knowledge of the game. Guys like Dustin Pedroia and Jose Altuve have succeeded in the majors, so Allen could too. I comped him to Omar Vizquel; how does that sound? Allen hasn't signed yet, and if he does, it will certainly be well over slot.

4-111: 3B Will Toffey (my rank: 95)
Toffey is another one of the more interesting players in the draft. A redshirt junior, Toffey already turned 22 in December, and after two unspectacular seasons at Vanderbilt, he wasn't the hottest name heading into this draft. Though he doesn't have any big tools, he just quietly and steadily hit his way up draft boards, and finished the season slashing .354/.475/.602 with 12 home runs for the Commodores. He shows average to slightly above average power, and average bat, and good defense at third base, but his offensive tools should play up due to his advanced approach at the plate (18.3% walk rate to 11.5% strikeout rate). I really like Toffey, and with his clean swing, I comped him to Chase Headley. He signed an at-slot bonus of $482,600.

14-411: CF Garrett Mitchell (my rank: 38)
Here in the 14th round, Mitchell probably won't sign, especially if the A's can get Nick Allen. However, I'm a big fan of Mitchell, more so than most. He is one of the faster players in this draft, and he should have no problem sticking as an above average centerfielder. At the plate, he has a long, flat swing, but he keeps the barrel of the bat in the zone for a very long time, and the long swing worries me much less because of that. His swing actually reminds me of a left handed Hunter Pence, and Mitchell could be a similar player.

Others: 7th rounder Parker Dunshee kicked off a streak of three straight big name senior pitchers from big name programs, as Dunshee has been a stalwart in the Wake Forest rotation for two years and a vital member of its pitching staff for four years. Over the four years, he went 28-10 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 78 games (36 starts), striking out 322 batters over 318.1 innings. He was also great on the Cape back in 2015 (3-2, 2.16 ERA, 0.93 WHIP). 8th rounder Brian Howard comes from TCU, where he had a similar four year career to Dunshee (26-5, 3.46 ERA, 1.17 WHIP over 62 games [40 starts]). Howard is a massive, 6'9" right hander with a classic back-end starter projection. 9th rounder Jared Poche was a teammate of Deichmann's at LSU, where Poche has become the school's all time wins leader after going 39-12 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 72 games (69 starts). He doesn't have great stuff, and he'll have to fight to be a #5 starter, but few can match his feel for pitching and ability to work with what he has. He actually had an amazing start to his season that would look really good here, but college baseball does an awful job of keeping stats and LSU doesn't have a game log listed for Poche. I could go through each of his first starts manually by sifting through their box scores but I can just tell you he was untouchable at the beginning of the season. 21st rounder Heath Donica pitched two years for Sam Houston State, where he went 19-6 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 35 games (32 starts), though he did turn 23 in May. 25th rounder Hunter Hargrove comes from another big name program, Texas Tech, and he had his best season in 2017 by slashing .343/.423/.535 with five home runs for the Red Raiders. It will be tough for him to move up as a first baseman with below average power, but he could find a home in an outfield corner as well.

No comments:

Post a Comment