Wednesday, June 28, 2017

2017 Draft Review: Seattle Mariners

First 5 rounds: Evan White (1-17), Sam Carlson (2-55), Wyatt Mills (3-93), Seth Elledge (4-123), David Banuelos (5-153)
Also notable: Oliver Jaskie (6-183), Billy Cooke (8-243), J.P. Sears (11-333)

In my opinion, this is a pretty mediocre draft class for the Mariners, as there is really only one pick in here I actively like. Interestingly, Seattle spurned the big name programs in favor of small ones, drafting just one player from the SEC (Kentucky), one from the ACC (Boston College), and none from the Big 12. The M's were notoriously bad about developing hitting under old GM Jack Zduriencik, with super prospects Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero, as well as guys like Justin Smoak, Alex Jackson, D.J. Peterson, and Mike Zunino struggling to reach their potential or completely busting. I'm not sure how much the pipeline development team has changed under new GM Jerry DiPoto, but the Mariners can't afford to continue to fail with hitting prospects.

1-17: 1B Evan White (my rank: 32)
I knew Evan White was going to go in the top 20 picks, but I wasn't a big fan of his. White has a long, flat swing that doesn't generate much power, and his 10.1% walk rate means his offensive production will be dependent on his batting average. That said, White is a very competent hitter who slashed .373/.453/.637 with 10 home runs while playing SEC competition this year, and he is an excellent defender at first base. He's actually so good around the bag at first that teams think he could be a solid center fielder or at least a corner outfielder if his bat isn't enough to hold him on first base. In my opinion, White could be an average big league hitter and possibly win Gold Gloves at first base. That's a solid projection, but I'd want more in the middle of the first round. White signed for just over $3.1 million, which is $208,200 below slot.

2-55: RHP Sam Carlson (my rank: 15)
Carlson is the one Mariners pick that I really like. He is a mid-first round talent who slipped because of signability, one who could legitimately become a #2 starter or an ace. He's a 6'4" righty with a mid 90's fastball, a power slider, and a very good changeup for a high schooler, so he has the potential for three above average or even plus pitches in the majors. While he's not guaranteed to remain a starter, he has a good chance because of his athleticism, full arsenal, and above average command. Carlson, from a high school in Minnesota, has fewer miles on his arm, and he signed for $2 million, which is $793,100 over slot.

4-153: RHP Seth Elledge (unranked)
Elledge spent three years in Dallas Baptist University's bullpen, including two as the closer. Over his 54 appearances for the Patriots, he put together a dominant career, finishing with a 2.21 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and 84 strikeouts in 69.1 innings. He's a fastball/curveball guy that will start you off with a mid 90's fastball and finish you with that power breaking ball, though the lack of hard bite on his curve will keep him from being too impactful as a reliever in the future. Elledge signed for $400,000, which is $28,900 below slot.

6-183: LHP Oliver Jaskie (my rank: 149)
Jaskie is a funky left hander that is a good get here in the 6th round, coming in with a high 80's fastball, a mediocre curve, and a great changeup. He had success as a starter for Michigan during his sophomore and junior seasons (15-6, 3.51 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) and struck out 119 batters in 93 innings this year, but he will almost certainly be a reliever in pro ball. There, he could add a tick of velocity to his fastball and either sharpen his curve or just dump it to go fastball-changeup, and being left handed is always a plus for a pitcher. He dominated as a starter on the Cape this year, going 2-0 with a 0.99 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP over six games (five starts), striking out 27 and walking just seven in 27.1 innings. Jaskie signed an at-slot deal of $245,600.

Others: 3rd rounder Wyatt Mills was an interesting pick, as he went unranked on my top 150, MLB.com's top 200, and on the BA 500, so I really don't know much about him. It looks like he had a very successful, four year career in Gonzaga's bullpen, putting up a 2.47 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP while striking out 109 over 109.1 innings. He had his best year as a senior, dropping his ERA to 1.79 and his WHIP to 1.09 while putting up a ridiculous 58/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 40.1 innings. That's all I have on the 6'3" righty, who signed for a full $454,800 under slot to make up for some of that money that went to Carlson. 8th rounder Billy Cooke played three years at Coastal Carolina and improved every year, finishing by slashing .353/.479/.587 with ten home runs and 21 stolen bases as a junior this year. The undersized outfielder will take his contact/speed combo up through the pros. 11th rounder J.P. Sears followed up two so-so years at the Citadel from 2015-2016 (10-12, 4.79 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) with a big breakout year in 2017, going 7-3 with a 2.64 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. He struck out 142 batters in 95.1 innings, which was enough to make him this year's NCAA strikeout king pre-tournament (though Alex Lange, Alex Faedo, Brendan McKay, and Tyler Holton passed him during the tournament) while the Citadel watched from the sidelines. Sears isn't the hardest thrower in the world with a fastball that maxes out at 90, but he mixes it well enough with a slider and a changeup to get strikeouts by the boatload. His command will help him play up as he moves through the pro ranks, but he may be forced into a relief role due to his overall lack of stuff.

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