This Indians lacks a clear standout, as Nolan Jones and Tyler Freeman have good chances to be impact players but lacks an exciting ceiling, while Triston McKenzie has exciting stuff and polish but can't seem to stay healthy. Down lower though, there are quite a few electric arms like those of Ethan Hankins, Daniel Espino, Carlos Vargas, and Lenny Torres, though I find it just a bit odd that the Indians like to stockpile these high octane arms when they actually develop the opposite extremely well. They've recently graduated a ton of pitchability guys, most notably Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, Adam Plutko, and Zach Plesac, and they have a few more coming up in Logan Allen, Scott Moss, Eli Morgan, and Adam Scott. On the offensive side, the system is more contact-focused than power-focused (sorry Bobby Bradley and Will Benson), with guys like Jones, Freeman, Ernie Clement, Brayan Rocchio, and Aaron Bracho seeming more focused on that part of their game.
Affiliates: AAA Columbus Clippers, AA Akron RubberDucks, High A Lynchburg Hillcats, Class A Lake County Captains, short season Mahoning Valley Scrappers, complex level AZL and DSL Indians plus DSL Indians/Brewers
Catcher
- Bo Naylor (2020 Age: 20): The Indians' first round pick out of a Toronto-area high school and the younger brother of Padres rookie Josh Naylor got off to a strong start to his pro career in 2019, slashing .243/.313/.421 with eleven home runs and a 104/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 107 games at Class A Lake County. Those numbers might not pop off the page, but high school catching (and catching in general) is so hard to develop that you'll take it most times. He out-hit the other two high-drafted high school catchers from his draft class in Anthony Seigler (.175/.328/.206 at Yankees Class A) and Will Banfield (.199/.252/.310 at Marlins Class A), showing a solid combination of power and plate discipline and even stealing seven bases. In fact, he was my favorite of the three on draft day, and his feel for the barrel should help him develop into a 15-25 homer, decent to solid on-base percentage catcher if things work out.
- Keep an eye on: Gavin Collins, Bryan Lavastida
Corner Infield
- Nolan Jones (2020 Age: 21-22): The best prospect in this system, Nolan Jones has the potential to be an impact bat in the near future. This year, the former second round pick out of a Philadelphia-area high school slashed .272/.409/.442 with 15 home runs and a 148/96 strikeout to walk ratio across 126 games at High A Lynchburg and AA Akron, showing plenty of patience and feel for the barrel. Strongly built at 6'2", he probably won't hit for a ton of power, but he could be a Michael Brantley-type hitter who swats 15-25 home runs per season with high on-base percentages, albeit with a few more strikeouts. He plays a solid third base and while he won't be spectacular there, he'll get the job done. Jones will likely spend a lot of time at AAA in 2020, but don't be surprised to see him called up to the majors at some point.
- Bobby Bradley (2020 Age: 23-24): You want power, Bobby Bradley will give you power. In 2019, he slashed .264/.344/.567 with 33 home runs and a 153/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 107 games at AAA Columbus, also spending 15 games in the majors and slashing .178/.245/.356 with one home run there. He has the chance to become something of a Joey Gallo-lite, as he probably won't get to his power enough to hit 40+ home runs per season, but he has a good chance to be at least a Matt Adams-type if not more. There's a lot of swing and miss in his game and he's not quite patient enough to offset it, so he's not a guarantee to be able to hit in the majors, but the big raw power means he'll get every opportunity to try, starting in 2020.
- Yu Chang (2020 Age: 24): Chang plays all over the infield, but with the depth of middle infield prospects in this system, we'll put him on the corner infield list. In 2019, he slashed .253/.322/.427 with nine home runs and a 67/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 games at AAA Columbus, also adding in a .178/.286/.274 performance over 28 major league games. He's got some power from the right side and doesn't strike out a ton, and he's worked to become a more balanced hitter in recent years. He profiles more as a useful, bat-first utility infielder than as a starter, but should earn a spot in 2020.
- Keep an eye on: Wilson Garcia, Ulysses Cantu, Jhonkensy Noel, Joe Naranjo
Middle Infield
- Ernie Clement (2020 Age: 24): Clement is a light hitting middle infielder who makes extremely easy contact from the right side of the plate, and he slashed .269/.323/.331 with one home run, 17 stolen bases, and a 34/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games, mostly at AA Akron. He doesn't generate much impact at all, but he puts the ball in play consistently and should not have a problem doing so in the majors. He won't hit for nearly enough power to start, but he should provide a quality utility infielder in the near future.
- Tyler Freeman (2020 Age: 20-21): As a low walk, low power infielder, Freeman was always going to have to get the ball in play a lot to stay relevant, and he's done that about as well as you could hope. After slashing .352/.405/.511 in short season ball in 2018, he hit .306/.368/.410 with three home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 53/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at Class A Lake County and High A Lynchburg. He finds the barrel extremely easily and hit 32 doubles and five triples despite knocking just three home runs, continuously taking extra bases and finding ways to help the team win. He lacks physical tools and simply relies on his exceptional feel for the game, and that should make him at least a strong utility infielder if not a starting second baseman at the major league level.
- Brayan Rocchio (2020 Age: 19): Rocchio is just a 5'10", 150 pound 18 year old kid out of Venezuela, but he surprised a lot of people by slashing .335/.390/.442 in complex ball last year. This year, his numbers were a bit down as an 18 year old in short season ball, but he slashed .250/.310/.373 with five home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 40/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games at Mahoning Valley. He's got great feel for the barrel and game for his age, and he's an explosive hitter despite his lack of physicality. Adding strength to his small frame could make him an impact hitter all around, and he'll stick up the middle either at second or shortstop.
- Aaron Bracho (2020 Age: 19): Bracho isn't much bigger than Rocchio at 5'11", and in 2019 he slashed .281/.402/.570 with eight home runs and a 29/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 games between the complex level Arizona League and short season Mahoning Valley. His ability to just drop the barrel to the ball and spray it around the park helped him beat up on the low level competition he faced in the Arizona League, though of course he was only 18 as well. He profiles better as a second baseman but his advanced bat should profile there.
- Christian Cairo (2020 Age: 18-19): The Indians fourth round pick out of a Tampa-area high school in 2019, Christian Cairo is the son of former major leaguer Miguel Cairo. The younger Cairo slashed just .178/.324/.212 with a 40/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games in the Arizona League in his pro debut, though he had only just turned 18 in June. He's well known for his feel for the game and ability to make contact, and the Indians hope that at least some power will come. He's also a strong defender due to his instincts, though second base might be his better long term home, especially in a system deep with middle infield talent like this one.
- Keep an eye on: Ike Freeman, Raynel Delgado, Gabriel Rodriguez, Jose Tena, Yordys Valdes, Angel Martinez
Outfielders
- Daniel Johnson (2020 Age: 24-25): Acquired from the Nationals in the Yan Gomes trade before the season, Johnson had a successful first season in the Cleveland system by slashing .290/.361/.507 with 19 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 118/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at AA Akron and AAA Columbus. Despite standing only 5'10", he's one of the most tooled up players in this system, as he shows power, speed, and arm strength to be a net positive on both sides of the ball. While he can be inconsistent at the plate, he's an impact hitter when he's on, and he projects for 20+ home runs per season and middling on-base percentages if he can make it click up there. Defensively, he could win Gold Gloves in right field because of his cannon arm and good range.
- Ka'ai Tom (2020 Age: 25-26): Tom has flown a bit under the radar since being drafted in the fifth round out of Kentucky in 2015, but he had a breakout 2019 where he slashed .290/.380/.532 with 23 home runs and a 126/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games in the upper minors at Akron and Columbus. Even at just 5'9", he has power from a quick left handed swing and it wasn't just a product of the juiced balls in AAA, as he still slashed .512 in AA. He doesn't necessarily sell out for power, but he does have to intentionally lift the ball if he wants to get one out, so his hit tool is a bit behind the power and probably means he'll be more of a fourth outfielder at the major league level, but the bat combined with solid defense in the outfield means he should be a valuable one.
- Will Benson (2020 Age: 21-22): It's hard to know exactly what to make of Benson, a first round pick in 2016 out of high school in Atlanta. He's been brought along slowly with mixed results, not reaching full season ball until 2018 and only slashing .180/.324/.370 for Class A Lake County that year. He repeated the level in 2019, with far different results: 18 home runs, a .272/.371/.604 slash line, 18 stolen bases, and a 78/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. That earned him a promotion to High A Lynchburg, where his numbers dropped again: four home runs, .189/.290/.304 slash line, 73/31 strikeout to walk ratio in 61 games. He has extremely quick hands through the zone that help him produce a ton of power from his 6'5" frame, and he's a selective enough hitter to pad his on-base percentage with plenty of walks. However, he seems to lack the feel for the barrel you'd hope to see in a power hitter like himself, resulting in too many popouts and strikeouts. If he can figure out how to get that barrel where it needs to go, he could hit 30+ home runs annually in the majors, but he isn't there yet. He's also a sound defensive right fielder that should provide positive value there.
- Steven Kwan (2020 Age: 22): Kwan is basically the outfield version of Ernie Clement. A fifth round pick out of Oregon State in 2018, he slashed .280/.353/.382 with three home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 51/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at High A Lynchburg this year. He doesn't show much power but he can spray doubles and triples into the gap, and his exceptional knowledge of the strike zone helps him get the ball in play consistently. He profiles as a fourth outfielder at the major league level but that plate discipline gives him a very good chance of getting there.
- George Valera (2020 Age: 19): Valera is a Dominican outfielder who didn't get a chance to show what he could do until 2019, when he slashed .236/.356/.446 with eight home runs and a 52/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games at short season Mahoning Valley before he slumped to .087/.192/.174 in a six game call-up to Class A Lake County. He's extremely talented with advanced feel for the strike zone and barrel, and that was apparent as he reached full season ball at 18 years old. He'll get another crack at it in his age-19 season in 2020, where he'll hope to take the next step towards developing into a high on-base hitter with some power potential despite his 5'10" frame.
- Keep an eye on: Oscar Gonzalez, Jodd Carter, Quentin Holmes, Will Brennan
Starting Pitching
- Logan Allen (2020 Age: 22-23): Allen has bounced around a lot, originally getting traded from the Red Sox to the Padres in the 2015 Craig Kimbrel deal before finding himself in Cleveland following the three-team Trevor Bauer/Yasiel Puig/Franmil Reyes trade in July. Spending the year at AAA, Allen had a 5.85 ERA, a 1.58 WHIP, and an 81/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings, also putting up a 6.18 ERA and a 17/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.2 major league innings. He's a 6'3" righty that sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full arsenal of secondary pitches, led by a plus changeup that functions as his out pitch. The lack of strong breaking balls limits his upside to that of a #4 starter, but he's just about there and with his solid command, he could contribute in the Indians rotation in 2020.
- Scott Moss (2020 Age: 25): Joining Allen in coming over in the three team trade is Scott Moss, a 6'6" lefty who posted a 2.96 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 159/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.2 innings at AA and AAA in what was an extremely dominant 2019 campaign. He only sits in the low 90's with his fastball and doesn't have a true out pitch or even great command, but he uses his size and knowledge of pitching to his advantage to get outs consistently. That makes his average stuff play way up despite his so-so command, and it gives him the chance to exceed expectations upon reaching the majors in 2020, where he's currently projected as a #5 starter.
- Triston McKenzie (2020 Age: 22-23): McKenzie might have the best combination of electric stuff and polish in this system, but injuries held him to just 90.2 innings in 2018 and off the mound completely in 2019. The Floridian righty is a 6'5" string bean that can sit in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and add in a curveball with a ton of vertical movement while also keeping lefties off balance with a diving changeup. Unlike most young pitchers with his profile, he can actually command everything pretty well, and when he's on the mound, he looks like a potential future ace or #2 starter. However, he has to figure out how to stay healthy (it was back problems that wiped out his 2019), because otherwise he may be ticketed for the bullpen despite the electric stuff and command.
- Eli Morgan (2020 Age: 23-24): An under the radar eighth round pick out of Gonzaga in 2017, Morgan has exceeded expectations every step of the way and posted a 3.39 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 146/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 140.2 innings at High A Lynchburg, AA Akron, and AAA Columbus. He's only a 5'10" righty with a 90 mile an hour fastball and a decent slider, but he mixes and commands his pitches very well and drops in an above average changeup that functions as his out pitch. There are certainly more exciting arms all over this system, but the Indians have done excepctionally well with developing this kind of crafty righty, recently graduating Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, Adam Plutko, and Zach Plesac off of prospect lists and into their rotation.
- Jean Carlos Mejia (2020 Age: 23): Mejia had a big, breakout 2018 season in A ball (3.31 ERA, 100/21 K/BB), but he missed most of 2019 with a sports hernia and finished with a 4.09 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 36/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 innings at High A Lynchburg. When healthy, Mejia checks most of the boxes for a successful major league starter, showing some velocity (low to mid 90's fastball), two good breaking balls with plenty of feel to spin them, and good command from a 6'4" frame. However, he's missing one of the big ones, and that's durability. He set a career high with 98 innings pitched in 2018, and he otherwise has never broken 40 in a season, which is very concerning if you want to hand him 150 per season in the majors. If he can't hold up as a starter, he could be a quality three pitch reliever.
- Ethan Hankins (2020 Age: 19-20): Hankins has about as electric of an arm as you can find, and he used it to post a 2.55 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 71/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 innings between short season Mahoning Valley and Class A Lake County in 2019. His mid 90's fastball has a ton of running and riding action that makes it nearly impossible to square up, and his changeup is much more advanced than that of most teenage pitchers. Developing a good breaking ball could make him elite and get hitters' eyes going in the other direction, though he hasn't been able to do that yet and currently relies on merely decent sliders and curveballs. As it stands, with so-so command and a spotty injury history, Hankins is a total boom-bust prospect, though developing only two out of the three between command, durability, and a breaking ball should be enough to make him an impact starter.
- Luis Oviedo (2020 Age: 20-21): Oviedo dominated short season ball in 2018 (1.88 ERA, 61/10 K/BB), though he hasn't quite gotten the same results since reaching full season ball. This year, he had a 5.38 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 72/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 87 innings, showing a quality fastball in the mid 90's as well as a full array of secondary pitches, but his command regressed and he was hit hard when he missed spots. He's a projectable 6'4" and shows a lot of promise with his feel for multiple offspeed pitches, though there's clearly more work to be done in getting him more consistent with his mechanics and command. However, he's also the kind of guy who could break out at any point.
- Daniel Espino (2020 Age: 19): Ethan Hankins has the second most explosive arm in the system, and that's because 2019 first rounder Daniel Espino has the first. A Panamanian right hander who attended school in Georgia, Espino posted a 3.80 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 34/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.2 innings in the complex level Arizona League and at short season Mahoning Valley. He's generously listed at 6'2" and sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, which like that of Hankins, has excellent life. He can also get sinking action on his similarly fast two seamer, and unlike Hankins, he has not one but two excellent breaking balls that can miss bats. He still needs a changeup, but he has pretty decent command for someone who throws so hard so young and he's proven durable so far, so he has the potential to be a top of the rotation guy. However, hard throwing kids like him have had a spotty track record, with guys like Tyler Kolek, Riley Pint, Alex Speas, and Hunter Greene running into trouble and/or injuries in pro ball recently (and the jury is still out on Hankins).
- Hunter Gaddis (2020 Age: 22): A fifth round pick out of Georgia State in 2019, I noted Gaddis as more of an upside play than a safe bet despite coming from the college ranks. That might already be coming to fruition, as he had about as successful as a pro debut as you can imagine: 2.73 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 53/7 K/BB over 33 innings in complex ball and at Mahoning Valley. Gaddis brings four pitches to the table but was often inconsistent at Georgia State as his mechanics made his stuff play down, but the Indians have already quieted down his delivery and he did a much better job of hitting his spots in pro ball, also looking like he's getting better extension towards the plate. If he can maintain this progress, he could be a steal in the fifth round and provide Cleveland with a mid-rotation starter. Watch this one.
- Keep an eye on: Sam Hentges, Adam Scott, Cody Morris, Juan Hillman, Lenny Torres,
Relief Pitching
- James Karinchak (2020 Age: 24): Want to know what untouchable looks like? In 2019, Karinchak had a 2.67 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 74/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 30.1 innings between AA Akron, AAA Columbus, and some complex level rehab. Those numbers are skewed a bit by the juiced balls in AAA, but Karinchak's run through AA especially was nothing short of legendary: ten shutout innings, two hits, two walks, and 24 strikeouts. That's two thirds of his opponents going down via strikeout in AA and 59.2% overall. He sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and gets some serious run on it, and his hammer curveball gets him swings and misses virtually whenever he wants them. However, he struggles to throw strikes consistently, which is just about the only thing keeping him from being a major league closer today. Landing his two plus pitches for strikes could get him there though, and even if he has only a rough idea where the ball is going, he'll be a successful major league reliever. In five appearances with the Indians this year, he had a 1.69 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, and an 8/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 5.1 innings.
- Nick Sandlin (2020 Age: 23): A second round pick out of Southern Miss in 2018, Sandlin reached AAA in his first full season and might be just as interesting as Karinchak. After dominating, and I mean dominating (1.06 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 144/18 K/BB) as a junior at USM, he spent 2019 in the upper minors and posted a 2.39 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 38/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 26.1 innings at Akron and Columbus. He's only 5'11" and sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but he gets by on 80-grade deception because he can and will throw all of his pitches overhand, sidearm, or even submarine, racking up awkward swings all over the place and keeping hitters as off balance as can be. His slider especially is a weapon, as it can dive clear across the plate, and he commands everything pretty well. Unfortunately, he was shut down with a forearm strain in July, so durability remains an important question.
- Carlos Vargas (2020 Age: 20): Vargas spent 2019 as a starter in short season ball, posting a 4.52 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 71/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 77.2 innings. He's got an extremely quick arm that produces and explosive mid 90's fastball and a hard, bat-missing slider, and the Indians are hoping to help him develop that changeup and command and keep him in the rotation. Even though he'll spend all of 2020 at 20 years old, his delivery, explosive stuff, and quick arm most likely point to the bullpen for me, where he could sit in the upper 90's and miss bats by the bunch.
- Keep an eye on: Aaron Pinto, Kellen Rholl, Matt Waldron
Showing posts with label Daniel Johnson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Daniel Johnson. Show all posts
Monday, November 18, 2019
Thursday, November 22, 2018
Reviewing the Washington Nationals Farm System
Coming into the season, the Nationals' farm system was very top heavy, and with Juan Soto no longer a prospect and not much up to take his place, the system is pretty shallow behind top prospects Victor Robles and Carter Kieboom. Even with a heavy emphasis on drafting pitching in recent years, the system remains hitter-heavy as many of those pitchers have failed to materialize into legitimate prospects. Fortunately, the Nationals are fairly deep at two of the toughest positions to find: catcher and shortstop.
Affiliates: AAA Syracuse Chiefs*, AA Harrisburg Senators, High A Potomac Nationals, Class A Hagerstown Suns, Short Season Auburn Doubledays, complex level GCL and DSL Nationals
*AAA affiliate will move from Syracuse, NY to Fresno, CA in 2019
The Headliner: OF Victor Robles
21 year old Victor Robles was supposed to do what Juan Soto did in 2018, but an arm injury wiped out most of his season and he finished slashing .276/.371/.370 with a pair of home runs and 19 stolen bases over 52 games, showing a nice 32/26 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA Syracuse. He's an extremely advanced player for his age, showing power, on-base ability, speed, and great defense at a young age, and at this point all he needs is an extended shot. I don't think he's the future superstar that a lot of analysts have pegged him as, but I see him producing like an Adam Eaton-type player for a long time, making a few All Star teams and hitting at the top of the lineup as long as manager Dave Martinez realizes that hitting for power doesn't make you a bad leadoff man. In 21 major league games this year, he slashed .288/.348/.525 with three home runs and three stolen bases, showing that he's ready and that the Nationals should be prepared to make him their starting center fielder in 2019 and beyond.
Infield Prospects: SS Carter Kieboom, SS Luis Garcia, SS Yasel Antuna, SS Jose Sanchez, 3B Drew Ward, and 1B KJ Harrison
The Nationals system is fortunate to have plenty of shortstops in the minors, and while most of these guys will either have to move off the position or won't have the bat to hit in the majors, it's nice knowing at least one will probably work out as a starting shortstop. The most likely major leaguer is 21 year old Carter Kieboom, a shortstop right now who may be able to cut it at that position in the majors but whose more likely destination is second or third base, depending on Anthony Rendon. Kieboom missed time to injuries in 2017 but had a big 2018 by slashing .280/.357/.444 with 16 home runs and a 109/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at High A Potomac and AA Harrisburg, showing power, plate discipline, and good defense. His game is actually fairly similar to Rendon's, and while Rendon represents more of a ceiling than a most likely outcome for Kieboom, he could be a 20 homer bat with strong on-base percentages in the majors. 18 year old Luis Garcia did more than any other position player prospect to boost his stock this year, slashing .298/.336/.406 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and an 82/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games between Class A Hagerstown and Potomac. The bat is a little lighter than Kieboom's, but he is exceptionally young and won't even turn 19 until May. His strong performances in A ball, with no loss of production with the promotion from Class A to High A, point to a very advanced bat for his age. As of now, he also looks like he can stick at shortstop, so the big question will be how much power he can develop. Two more infielders from Garcia's class, 19 year old Yasel Antuna and 18 year old Jose Sanchez, have not developed as quickly. Antuna spent the year at Hagerstown, slashing .220/.293/.331 with six home runs and a 79/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 87 games, while Sanchez played at Short Season Auburn and slashed .230/.309/.282 with no home runs and a 56/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 64 games. Sanchez is considered the stronger defender, perhaps even ahead of Garcia, but both bats are clearly still transitioning to pro baseball. Right now, they look like utility men at best, but a lot can change for players of that age. 23 year old Drew Ward is a different type of prospect, wielding a more advanced bat but also obviously much older. In 2018, he slashed .249/.363/.422 with 13 home runs and a 115/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games at AA Harrisburg and AAA Syracuse. He has a very nice power/patience combination, but he struggles to get to his power enough for it to make much of a difference at this point and he's looking more like a bench bat who could be up in the majors by September of 2019. Lastly, 22 year old KJ Harrison came over in the Gio Gonzalez trade and really struggled in his first full season after being drafted in the third round (84th overall) out of Oregon State in 2017. In 115 games at the Brewers' Class A affiliate, he slashed .228/.298/.384 with 12 home runs and a 147/39 strikeout to walk ratio, showing some power but overall not looking like the fairly advanced bat the Brewers thought they were drafting. He has a chance to turn it around in 2019, but he can't really afford another lost season like 2018.
Outfielders and Catchers: OF Daniel Johnson, OF Austin Davidson, OF Gage Canning, OF Telmito Agustin, C Raudy Read, C Tres Barrera, and C Israel Pineda
The outfield isn't as deep as the infield, with only five prospects with any kind of projection (the previously mentioned Victor Robles being the fifth), and all of them come with plenty of risk. 23 year old Daniel Johnson put himself on the map with a breakout 2017 in A ball (.298/.356/.505, 22 HR, 22 SB) but slowed down a bit in 2018 with a .269/.327/.412 line, seven home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 92/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games, mostly at AA Harrisburg. Last year, Johnson flashed a power/speed combination that's hard to find, but the power wasn't really there in 2018 and right now his projection looks something along the lines of a Michael A. Taylor. 25 year old Austin Davidson is an older prospect without much projection remaining, but he's coming off a nice season where he slashed .292/.374/.482 with 11 home runs and a 53/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games at High A Potomac and Harrisburg. He could be a nice bench bat but probably not more. Deeper into the minors, 21 year old Gage Canning had a nice debut after being drafted in the fifth round out of Arizona State this year, slashing .253/.319/.470 with six home runs and a 54/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between Short Season Auburn and Class A Hagerstown, with the bulk of the production coming before his promotion. Right now, Canning has a fourth outfielder projection, but I would not count him out as a potential starter down the road as he has few weaknesses in his game as an all-around solid contributor. He's a breakout candidate for 2019. 22 year old Telmito Agustin has been very slow to get his minor league career going, and he just wrapped up his fifth minor league season by slashing .273/.338/.404 with six home runs and a 63/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 games between Auburn and Potomac. He's a good hitter that shows all-around skills at the plate when he's healthy, but he has never been healthy for long enough to really find his groove at the plate and show what he can do. The Nationals are hoping to get another potential fourth outfielder out of him, but he has to stay healthy to become that. Of the three notable catchers in the system, which the Nationals are fortunate to have, 25 year old Raudy Read is the most advanced. Read had a power breakout in 2017 by slugging 17 home runs, but he was then busted for PED's and came back to slash .279/.319/.401 with just three home runs at Harrisburg and AAA Syracuse after his suspension in 2018. He's a solid defensive catcher, but with a so-so bat, he's likely to compete with Pedro Severino and Spencer Kieboom for the backup catcher's spot in 2019. A little farther down the line, 24 year old Tres Barrera slashed .263/.334/.386 with six home runs and a 53/22 strikeout to walk ratio at Potomac, also showing a so-so bat to go along with good defense. There is definitely some power in the bat and he keeps his strikeout rate reasonably low, but as with Read, it looks more like a backup catcher's profile. Perhaps the highest ceiling catcher in the Nationals' system is 18 year old Israel Pineda, who slashed a very respectable .273/.341/.388 with four home runs and a 35/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games down at Auburn. He's an advanced hitter for a teenager, especially for a catcher, and he should also be noted on that list of potential breakouts for 2019. If all goes well (which is definitely not a given with catching prospects), Pineda could occupy a very different spot in the Nationals' minor league depth chart a year from now.
Right Handed Pitchers: Wil Crowe, Mason Denaburg, Sterling Sharp, James Bourque, Jackson Tetreault, and Reid Schaller
The Nationals have traded away tons of pitching talent recently, and they're left with a fairly shallow pool. Among the right handers in the group, 24 year old Wil Crowe is the closest impact arm to the majors. He dominated at High A Potomac (11-0, 2.69 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 78/30 K/BB in 87 IP) but struggled upon his promotion to AA Harrisburg (0-5, 6.15 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 15/16 K/BB in 26.1 IP). He's a big 6'2" righty from East Tennessee, and he gets by showing decent control of mid-rotation stuff. Crowe has to acclimate to the upper minors, as he has proven that A ball hitting is no match for him. His combination of stuff and command is good enough for the upper levels, so it's just a matter of time and he should end up as a #4ish starter. 19 year old Mason Denaburg, meanwhile, was the team's first round pick (27th overall) out of a Florida high school in 2018, and he's all ceiling and no floor. Denaburg has the stuff to be a #2 or #3 starter, and his good athleticism only makes him more likely to become one, but he has not pitched yet due to arm troubles and he has a lot to prove. He should be healthy for 2019, so look for him to start either in Short Season ball or up at Class A Hagerstown, where he could quickly become the system's top pitching prospect with some success out of the gate. 23 year old Sterling Sharp, aside from having an awesome name, just put up a solid season by going 11-6 with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 105/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 148.1 innings between Potomac and Harrisburg. He wasn't spectacular, but he showed good enough stuff and command to fit into the back of the rotation, and while his skinny 6'4" frame logically lends itself to increased velocity down the line, at 23 years old he probably is what he is at this point. 25 year old James Bourque is exclusively a relief-only prospect, having found success in the bullpen after being converted from starting over the offseason. This year, he put up a 1.70 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 76/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 innings at Potomac and Harrisburg, showing a power fastball/curveball combination that is good enough to get major leaguers out but which he needs to command better. Expect him up in the majors as a middle reliever some time in 2019. 22 year old Jackson Tetreault was one of two Florida JuCo Jacksons taken by the Nationals in the middle rounds of the 2017 draft, and while Jackson Stoeckinger hasn't been great, Tetreault just put up a 4.07 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 138/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 132.2 innings between Class A Hagerstown and Potomac. Tetrault has a very good fastball/curveball combination, and he could be a mid rotation or back end starter if his changeup comes along. If not, he fits well as a reliever and would move quicker through the minors that way, though the Nationals rightly hold out hope he could be a major league starter. 21 year old Reid Schaller was a third round pick (101st overall) out of Vanderbilt in 2018, and though he's a college arm, he's more of the projectable type than the safe-bet type. Schaller throws hard, but at this point, that's about it, as he doesn't command his average stuff well. The Nationals will hope to develop him as a starter, but he looks more like a set-up man to me.
Left Handed Pitchers: Seth Romero, Tim Cate, Nick Raquet, and Ben Braymer
Currently, the Nationals have four notable left handed pitchers in their system, and they're a fairly diverse group. 22 year old Seth Romero is probably the most interesting not only in this group but in the entire system, having thrown just 47.1 professional innings since he was drafted in the first round (25th overall) out of the University of Houston in 2017. A top ten draft pick on talent alone, he fell because of severe disciplinary issues (he was actually kicked off of his college baseball team after multiple suspensions) and had to miss the start of the 2018 minor league season after more disciplinary issues. In seven starts after coming back, he posted a 3.91 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a nice 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings at Class A Hagerstown, showing the possible front of the rotation stuff that earned him such a high draft pick. If he can just grow up a little bit, his excellent combination of stuff and command could make him a #2 starter, but he has to get on the mound and stay out of trouble at some point in order for that to happen. 21 year old Tim Cate was a second round pick (65th overall) out of UConn in 2018, and he posted a 5.02 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 45/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings between Short Season Auburn and Hagerstown in his pro debut. Cate is an undersized lefty at 6', but his curveball was considered one of the best in the draft and that is a good building block for now. He was inconsistent throughout his college career, but when he was on, he looked like a legitimate mid-rotation starter who could mix pitches and work off that great curveball, so he just has to work on getting more consistent with his command and other pitches. He still could be a mid-rotation starter, but there is a chance he ends up in the bullpen, where he could still be an impact arm. 22 year old Nick Raquet was a third round pick (103rd overall) out of William & Mary in 2017, and at the time I thought he profiled better as a reliever than as a starter. He was pretty good as a starter in 2018 though, posting a 3.74 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and a 92/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.2 innings between Hagerstown and High A Potomac. The low strikeout rate makes me think he still would look better as a reliever, where his stuff plays up and his command is better (based off of observations from watching him pitch in college), but it was nice to see him pitch well as a starter at Hagerstown then hold his own at Potomac. 24 year old Ben Braymer dominated mid level competition in 2018, going 9-3 with a 2.28 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 118/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.2 innings for Hagerstown and Potomac. He was older than most of the competition he faced, but he showed good command of average stuff and could make it to the majors as a #5 starter or a Sammy Solis-type long reliever. We need to see him at higher levels but don't count him out just for his age.
Affiliates: AAA Syracuse Chiefs*, AA Harrisburg Senators, High A Potomac Nationals, Class A Hagerstown Suns, Short Season Auburn Doubledays, complex level GCL and DSL Nationals
*AAA affiliate will move from Syracuse, NY to Fresno, CA in 2019
The Headliner: OF Victor Robles
21 year old Victor Robles was supposed to do what Juan Soto did in 2018, but an arm injury wiped out most of his season and he finished slashing .276/.371/.370 with a pair of home runs and 19 stolen bases over 52 games, showing a nice 32/26 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA Syracuse. He's an extremely advanced player for his age, showing power, on-base ability, speed, and great defense at a young age, and at this point all he needs is an extended shot. I don't think he's the future superstar that a lot of analysts have pegged him as, but I see him producing like an Adam Eaton-type player for a long time, making a few All Star teams and hitting at the top of the lineup as long as manager Dave Martinez realizes that hitting for power doesn't make you a bad leadoff man. In 21 major league games this year, he slashed .288/.348/.525 with three home runs and three stolen bases, showing that he's ready and that the Nationals should be prepared to make him their starting center fielder in 2019 and beyond.
Infield Prospects: SS Carter Kieboom, SS Luis Garcia, SS Yasel Antuna, SS Jose Sanchez, 3B Drew Ward, and 1B KJ Harrison
The Nationals system is fortunate to have plenty of shortstops in the minors, and while most of these guys will either have to move off the position or won't have the bat to hit in the majors, it's nice knowing at least one will probably work out as a starting shortstop. The most likely major leaguer is 21 year old Carter Kieboom, a shortstop right now who may be able to cut it at that position in the majors but whose more likely destination is second or third base, depending on Anthony Rendon. Kieboom missed time to injuries in 2017 but had a big 2018 by slashing .280/.357/.444 with 16 home runs and a 109/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at High A Potomac and AA Harrisburg, showing power, plate discipline, and good defense. His game is actually fairly similar to Rendon's, and while Rendon represents more of a ceiling than a most likely outcome for Kieboom, he could be a 20 homer bat with strong on-base percentages in the majors. 18 year old Luis Garcia did more than any other position player prospect to boost his stock this year, slashing .298/.336/.406 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and an 82/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games between Class A Hagerstown and Potomac. The bat is a little lighter than Kieboom's, but he is exceptionally young and won't even turn 19 until May. His strong performances in A ball, with no loss of production with the promotion from Class A to High A, point to a very advanced bat for his age. As of now, he also looks like he can stick at shortstop, so the big question will be how much power he can develop. Two more infielders from Garcia's class, 19 year old Yasel Antuna and 18 year old Jose Sanchez, have not developed as quickly. Antuna spent the year at Hagerstown, slashing .220/.293/.331 with six home runs and a 79/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 87 games, while Sanchez played at Short Season Auburn and slashed .230/.309/.282 with no home runs and a 56/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 64 games. Sanchez is considered the stronger defender, perhaps even ahead of Garcia, but both bats are clearly still transitioning to pro baseball. Right now, they look like utility men at best, but a lot can change for players of that age. 23 year old Drew Ward is a different type of prospect, wielding a more advanced bat but also obviously much older. In 2018, he slashed .249/.363/.422 with 13 home runs and a 115/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games at AA Harrisburg and AAA Syracuse. He has a very nice power/patience combination, but he struggles to get to his power enough for it to make much of a difference at this point and he's looking more like a bench bat who could be up in the majors by September of 2019. Lastly, 22 year old KJ Harrison came over in the Gio Gonzalez trade and really struggled in his first full season after being drafted in the third round (84th overall) out of Oregon State in 2017. In 115 games at the Brewers' Class A affiliate, he slashed .228/.298/.384 with 12 home runs and a 147/39 strikeout to walk ratio, showing some power but overall not looking like the fairly advanced bat the Brewers thought they were drafting. He has a chance to turn it around in 2019, but he can't really afford another lost season like 2018.
Outfielders and Catchers: OF Daniel Johnson, OF Austin Davidson, OF Gage Canning, OF Telmito Agustin, C Raudy Read, C Tres Barrera, and C Israel Pineda
The outfield isn't as deep as the infield, with only five prospects with any kind of projection (the previously mentioned Victor Robles being the fifth), and all of them come with plenty of risk. 23 year old Daniel Johnson put himself on the map with a breakout 2017 in A ball (.298/.356/.505, 22 HR, 22 SB) but slowed down a bit in 2018 with a .269/.327/.412 line, seven home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 92/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games, mostly at AA Harrisburg. Last year, Johnson flashed a power/speed combination that's hard to find, but the power wasn't really there in 2018 and right now his projection looks something along the lines of a Michael A. Taylor. 25 year old Austin Davidson is an older prospect without much projection remaining, but he's coming off a nice season where he slashed .292/.374/.482 with 11 home runs and a 53/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games at High A Potomac and Harrisburg. He could be a nice bench bat but probably not more. Deeper into the minors, 21 year old Gage Canning had a nice debut after being drafted in the fifth round out of Arizona State this year, slashing .253/.319/.470 with six home runs and a 54/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between Short Season Auburn and Class A Hagerstown, with the bulk of the production coming before his promotion. Right now, Canning has a fourth outfielder projection, but I would not count him out as a potential starter down the road as he has few weaknesses in his game as an all-around solid contributor. He's a breakout candidate for 2019. 22 year old Telmito Agustin has been very slow to get his minor league career going, and he just wrapped up his fifth minor league season by slashing .273/.338/.404 with six home runs and a 63/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 games between Auburn and Potomac. He's a good hitter that shows all-around skills at the plate when he's healthy, but he has never been healthy for long enough to really find his groove at the plate and show what he can do. The Nationals are hoping to get another potential fourth outfielder out of him, but he has to stay healthy to become that. Of the three notable catchers in the system, which the Nationals are fortunate to have, 25 year old Raudy Read is the most advanced. Read had a power breakout in 2017 by slugging 17 home runs, but he was then busted for PED's and came back to slash .279/.319/.401 with just three home runs at Harrisburg and AAA Syracuse after his suspension in 2018. He's a solid defensive catcher, but with a so-so bat, he's likely to compete with Pedro Severino and Spencer Kieboom for the backup catcher's spot in 2019. A little farther down the line, 24 year old Tres Barrera slashed .263/.334/.386 with six home runs and a 53/22 strikeout to walk ratio at Potomac, also showing a so-so bat to go along with good defense. There is definitely some power in the bat and he keeps his strikeout rate reasonably low, but as with Read, it looks more like a backup catcher's profile. Perhaps the highest ceiling catcher in the Nationals' system is 18 year old Israel Pineda, who slashed a very respectable .273/.341/.388 with four home runs and a 35/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games down at Auburn. He's an advanced hitter for a teenager, especially for a catcher, and he should also be noted on that list of potential breakouts for 2019. If all goes well (which is definitely not a given with catching prospects), Pineda could occupy a very different spot in the Nationals' minor league depth chart a year from now.
Right Handed Pitchers: Wil Crowe, Mason Denaburg, Sterling Sharp, James Bourque, Jackson Tetreault, and Reid Schaller
The Nationals have traded away tons of pitching talent recently, and they're left with a fairly shallow pool. Among the right handers in the group, 24 year old Wil Crowe is the closest impact arm to the majors. He dominated at High A Potomac (11-0, 2.69 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 78/30 K/BB in 87 IP) but struggled upon his promotion to AA Harrisburg (0-5, 6.15 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 15/16 K/BB in 26.1 IP). He's a big 6'2" righty from East Tennessee, and he gets by showing decent control of mid-rotation stuff. Crowe has to acclimate to the upper minors, as he has proven that A ball hitting is no match for him. His combination of stuff and command is good enough for the upper levels, so it's just a matter of time and he should end up as a #4ish starter. 19 year old Mason Denaburg, meanwhile, was the team's first round pick (27th overall) out of a Florida high school in 2018, and he's all ceiling and no floor. Denaburg has the stuff to be a #2 or #3 starter, and his good athleticism only makes him more likely to become one, but he has not pitched yet due to arm troubles and he has a lot to prove. He should be healthy for 2019, so look for him to start either in Short Season ball or up at Class A Hagerstown, where he could quickly become the system's top pitching prospect with some success out of the gate. 23 year old Sterling Sharp, aside from having an awesome name, just put up a solid season by going 11-6 with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 105/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 148.1 innings between Potomac and Harrisburg. He wasn't spectacular, but he showed good enough stuff and command to fit into the back of the rotation, and while his skinny 6'4" frame logically lends itself to increased velocity down the line, at 23 years old he probably is what he is at this point. 25 year old James Bourque is exclusively a relief-only prospect, having found success in the bullpen after being converted from starting over the offseason. This year, he put up a 1.70 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 76/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 innings at Potomac and Harrisburg, showing a power fastball/curveball combination that is good enough to get major leaguers out but which he needs to command better. Expect him up in the majors as a middle reliever some time in 2019. 22 year old Jackson Tetreault was one of two Florida JuCo Jacksons taken by the Nationals in the middle rounds of the 2017 draft, and while Jackson Stoeckinger hasn't been great, Tetreault just put up a 4.07 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 138/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 132.2 innings between Class A Hagerstown and Potomac. Tetrault has a very good fastball/curveball combination, and he could be a mid rotation or back end starter if his changeup comes along. If not, he fits well as a reliever and would move quicker through the minors that way, though the Nationals rightly hold out hope he could be a major league starter. 21 year old Reid Schaller was a third round pick (101st overall) out of Vanderbilt in 2018, and though he's a college arm, he's more of the projectable type than the safe-bet type. Schaller throws hard, but at this point, that's about it, as he doesn't command his average stuff well. The Nationals will hope to develop him as a starter, but he looks more like a set-up man to me.
Left Handed Pitchers: Seth Romero, Tim Cate, Nick Raquet, and Ben Braymer
Currently, the Nationals have four notable left handed pitchers in their system, and they're a fairly diverse group. 22 year old Seth Romero is probably the most interesting not only in this group but in the entire system, having thrown just 47.1 professional innings since he was drafted in the first round (25th overall) out of the University of Houston in 2017. A top ten draft pick on talent alone, he fell because of severe disciplinary issues (he was actually kicked off of his college baseball team after multiple suspensions) and had to miss the start of the 2018 minor league season after more disciplinary issues. In seven starts after coming back, he posted a 3.91 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a nice 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings at Class A Hagerstown, showing the possible front of the rotation stuff that earned him such a high draft pick. If he can just grow up a little bit, his excellent combination of stuff and command could make him a #2 starter, but he has to get on the mound and stay out of trouble at some point in order for that to happen. 21 year old Tim Cate was a second round pick (65th overall) out of UConn in 2018, and he posted a 5.02 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 45/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings between Short Season Auburn and Hagerstown in his pro debut. Cate is an undersized lefty at 6', but his curveball was considered one of the best in the draft and that is a good building block for now. He was inconsistent throughout his college career, but when he was on, he looked like a legitimate mid-rotation starter who could mix pitches and work off that great curveball, so he just has to work on getting more consistent with his command and other pitches. He still could be a mid-rotation starter, but there is a chance he ends up in the bullpen, where he could still be an impact arm. 22 year old Nick Raquet was a third round pick (103rd overall) out of William & Mary in 2017, and at the time I thought he profiled better as a reliever than as a starter. He was pretty good as a starter in 2018 though, posting a 3.74 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and a 92/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.2 innings between Hagerstown and High A Potomac. The low strikeout rate makes me think he still would look better as a reliever, where his stuff plays up and his command is better (based off of observations from watching him pitch in college), but it was nice to see him pitch well as a starter at Hagerstown then hold his own at Potomac. 24 year old Ben Braymer dominated mid level competition in 2018, going 9-3 with a 2.28 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 118/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.2 innings for Hagerstown and Potomac. He was older than most of the competition he faced, but he showed good command of average stuff and could make it to the majors as a #5 starter or a Sammy Solis-type long reliever. We need to see him at higher levels but don't count him out just for his age.
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