The Royals shocked everyone by taking Frank Mozzicato with the seventh overall pick, but used their nearly $2 million in savings to go above slot value with nine of their next sixteen picks. The biggest catch was Ben Kudrna, who himself required more than $1 million above his slot value, but they also got big ones in Shane Panzini ($459,300 above), Carter Jensen ($317,000), Luca Tresh ($298,000), and Eric Cerantola ($102,000). In the end, Kansas City came away with a high-school heavy class headlined by two guys they think will pitch atop their rotation of the future in Mozzicato and Kudrna, as well as a pair of catchers to pair with each other in Jensen and Tresh, and some unrefined by electric arms in Cerantola and Harrison Beethe. Drafting Mozzicato meant they had to pass over Brady House, Kahlil Watson, Sal Frelick, Matt McLain, and Kumar Rocker, all of whom ranked in my top ten and were available at the time, but I do think they were happy with what they came away with. Overall though, I'm not really in love with the class, with my favorite pick probably being either Kudrna or Jensen. As a bonus, both of those two are from the Kansas City area, which I always find fun.
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1-7: LHP Frank Mozzicato, East Catholic HS [CT]. My rank: #48.
This was the biggest surprise of the first round. Frank Mozzicato was generally ranked somewhere in the comp/second round range (#39 at MLB Pipeline, #41 at Baseball America, #49 at Prospects Live) and was rumored to be a target for some teams in the back of the first round, and I don't think anybody saw a top ten selection coming. Mozzicato comes with tremendous ceiling and an extreme upward trajectory, so even if he still has a long way to go, the Royals are buying into tomorrow rather than today. His fastball ticked into the low 90's this spring, only topping out around 93 but promising much more. The Hartford-area native's plus curveball is his bread and butter, coming in with sharp, late bite and high spin rates. Like most high school pitchers, his changeup is his third pitch and he throws it more for scouts in bullpens than to get outs in games. Mozzicato completely overwhelmed Connecticut hitters this spring and tossed four consecutive no-hitters, locating his pitches pretty well with a repeatable, crossfire delivery. The 6'3" lefty comes with a ton of projection and nobody thinks he's done adding velocity, which he'll need to do with both his fastball and his curveball. Adding to the intrigue is age, as he's young for the class and only turned 18 less than a month before the draft. For all the ceiling, it's certainly risky taking a pitcher who has not yet touched the mid 90's at all with his fastball, especially when he's not a command artist either (though he's certainly not wild). Committed to UConn, Mozzicato signed for $3.55 million, roughly slot for the seventeenth overall pick and roughly $1.88 million below slot value for the seventh pick.
2-43: RHP Ben Kudrna, Blue Valley Southwest HS [KS]. My rank: #50.
I always love a good hometown pick, and the Royals got one here with Ben Kudrna, who grew up in the southernmost reaches of the Kansas City suburbs down where Overland Park meets the plains. Kudrna (pronounced KOODurna) has a really interesting combination of a high ceiling and a high floor, exactly the kind of profile that could have ended up at LSU and very easily blossomed into a high first round pick after mowing down the SEC for three years. His fastball velocity has been steadily trending up, now regularly getting into the mid 90's and reportedly touching 98 in side sessions, showing moderate run. He shows an above average slider and has more feel for his changeup than the typical high school pitcher, even in this part of the draft, and he's been consistent from start to start. The 6'3" righty offers even more projection to come and employs a very clean, repeatable delivery that helps him fill up the strike zone, and it's easy to envision him refining that in-zone command to above average or even plus in time. I don't really see an ace here, probably more of a #3 or #4 guy, but that's still extremely valuable and at the same time I see much less risk than the typical high school pitcher. Aside from having eye-popping metrics on his pitches, it's about as complete of a profile as you're going to get in the second round. He signed for $3 million, which was roughly $1.27 million above slot value, so he'll head half an hour north rather than twelve hours south to Baton Rouge.
CBB-66: 2B Peyton Wilson, Alabama. My rank: #117.
After a pair of high school pitchers, the Royals shifted gears and went the college hitter route in he competitive balance round. Peyton Wilson was a full year older than his graduating class so even in his second year at school, he's still older than most third year players. He made the most of his short time in Tuscaloosa by slashing .295/.360/.457 with nine home runs and a 47/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games, earning a reputation as a gamer who leaves it all on the field. Wilson is short to the baseball but still generates plenty of torque in both his left and right handed swing, producing high exit velocities and screaming line drives for plenty of extra base power and the ability to put it over the wall when he gets the right pitch. Mostly a line drive hitter for now, he could be a launch angle candidate that could tap some surprising power in pro ball despite his smaller 5'9" frame. The Birmingham-area native is an aggressive hitter who likes to attack early in the count, and because he usually makes contact, he rarely walks. That's worked well for him against very good arms in the SEC, so it will be interesting to see how it translates up as pitchers get better and better at exploiting that. A plus runner, he has a strong arm and could make his way back over to shortstop after playing second base for the Crimson Tide, though the Royals look like they're going to stick with second base for now. His feel for hitting translates over to defense and he should be a net-positive no matter where he ends up. Wilson does a lot of things well and fits well into this system, so even though I think he's more of a utility guy than an every day one, I could definitely see the Royals turn him into a high average, 15-20 home run guy. He signed for full slot value at $1 million and is hitting .167/.333/.333 through eight games in the ACL.
3-78: C Carter Jensen, Park Hill HS [MO]. My rank: #90.
Make that two players from opposite ends of the Kansas City area. While Ben Kudrna attended high school about twenty miles southwest of downtown on the Kansas side, Carter Jensen comes to us from Park Hill High School on the Missouri side about eleven miles northwest of downtown just before MCI Airport. Jensen has a combination of power and feel to hit you don't often see in high school catchers, generating above average raw power from a fairly unique operation. He sits back on his back foot waiting for the pitch, then slowly gains ground in his load before exploding out and up through the baseball. That's where his strong plate discipline and feel to hit really serves him well, as the swing is very dependent on good timing and he's prone to swinging and missing when he gets fooled. That will be tested in pro ball, where he has a chance to be a real impact hitter if he continues to identify pitches well and control the strike zone, or he could quickly spiral if pitchers keep him off balance and he can't adjust. He's a bit slow and choppy on the defensive side, where his strong arm kind of makes up for the rest of his game back there. He's very young for the class and didn't turn 18 until just before the draft, which is a big bonus in my opinion as it gives him extra time to really hone his approach as while refining his defense. If he ends up forced to first base, he has the offensive ceiling to profile there. I will add lastly that high school catchers are very risky and tend to bust more often than other positions. Committed to LSU along with Kudrna, he also took a large over slot bonus to stay in KC, going roughly $317,000 over slot value with a $1.1 million bonus. He's 5-10 with a home run through four games in the ACL.
4-108: RHP Shane Panzini, Red Bank Catholic HS [NJ]. My rank: #120.
If Shane Panzini had been age appropriate for his class, I probably would have had him in the top one hundred, but he'll turn 20 shortly after the season and has to be evaluated like a JUCO player. Regardless of his age, he's really, really interesting. Panzini's fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and gets up to around 95-96, playing up further because he gets high spin rates on the ball in addition to big extension that makes it get on you quicker. He adds a curve and slider that both show high spin rates as well, and while they're both inconsistent, they have a chance to be above average pitches. There's also a fringy changeup that he works in less frequently. The 6'3" righty gets down the mound extremely well but doesn't always stay on line, so while he pounds the strike zone and tends to stay ahead in the count against weaker New Jersey competition, his strikes are very scattered at this point. The Royals need to clean up some aspects of the Jersey Shore product's game, a task made slightly more difficult because of his age, but the upside is very high because of his athleticism and ability to rip through a baseball. There's definitely a chance he makes it as a mid-rotation starter, or he could move quickly and be nasty in relief. Panzini signed away from a Virginia commitment for $997,500, which was $459,300 above slot value.
5-139: RHP Eric Cerantola, Mississippi State. My rank: #162.
Now this is yet another fascinating pick. Eric Cerantola has about as extreme of a profile as you're going to find, with the ability to do some unbelievable things to a baseball but very little feel to actually deploy it. He was a breakout candidate this spring as a member of Mississippi State's original weekend rotation, but he was completely ineffective in three of his four starts and found himself in the bullpen by April, then didn't pitch at all in the NCAA Tournament as the Bulldogs opted to go with more trustworthy arms for the high leverage situations. In all, Cerantola finished with a 5.71 ERA and a 24/11 strikeout to walk ratio over just 17.1 innings, with much better numbers as a reliever (1.59 ERA, 11/2 K/BB in 5.2 IP) than as a starter (7.71 ERA, 13/9 K/BB in 11.2 IP). There's no denying the stuff. The towering 6'5" righty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has hit triple digits in short stints, coming down from a steep plane with his long levers. His curveball flashes double plus with unhittable bite as if it had been spiked like a volleyball just before home plate, coming in with spin rates consistently well above 3000. He also shows an above average changeup, so when it's all located, hitters don't stand a chance. The problem for the big righty, of course, has been location. He has a very slow, deliberate delivery until the last second, when he whips through late and rushes to his release point, which can be all over the place as a result. To me, it seems like he's trying as hard as he can to control his movements and aim the ball rather than trusting his delivery to get the ball where it needs to go. The Toronto-area native is almost certainly a reliever in my opinion because of this, but the stuff is so ridiculous that if the Royals get it right, he has true closer upside. Cerantola signed for $500,000, which was $102,000 above slot value.
10-289: LHP Shane Connolly, Virginia Tech. Unranked.
Virginia Tech specialized in pitchability lefties this spring, and Shane Connolly certainly fits that mold. New to Blacksburg from The Citadel, he proved to be an impactful transfer with a 4.14 ERA and an 81/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 innings. Connolly sits around 90 with his fastball and only tops out around 93, but gives hitters a unique look as a sidearmer. His slider is his best pitch, and above average sweeper that plays up to plus because he locates it so well as it dives across the plate. He also adds a fringy changeup with some sink, and because he can tunnel his pitches effectively, it plays well off his other two. The 6'2" righty almost certainly fits a relief profile in pro ball, as he lacks the power arsenal to get hitters out more than once, but he could provide a very interesting matchup late in games especially for lefties. In that role, he should be able to work his way up rather quickly and could help the Royals out sooner rather than later. The Charlotte-area native signed for $72,500, which was $75,200 below slot value, and he has allowed one unearned run over two innings in the ACL, striking out three.
13-379: RHP Patrick Halligan, Pensacola State JC. Unranked.
I actually grew up playing baseball with Patrick Halligan's older brother Joe, so this was a bit of a fun surprise when I saw his name called in the thirteenth round. There's not much publicly available information out there and I haven't actually seen him pitch in a long time, but I'll do my best. He also showed big arm strength and projectability but never quite put it together at George Mason, where he started out, so he transferred to Pensacola State down in Florida and put up a 1.87 ERA and a 109/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.2 innings against pretty solid Florida JUCO competition. The 6'5" righty has seen his fastball steadily tick up as he's filled out his huge frame and now sits in the low 90's, touching 95, with more possibly to come. He's athletic and fills up the strike zone with a low effort, repeatable delivery, giving him every chance to start at the next level and perhaps become a bit of a sleeper prospect in a Royals system full of good arms. The Northern Virginia native signed for $132,500, of which $7,500 counts against the Royals' bonus pool, and he's thrown a pair of shutout innings so far in the ACL, striking out four.
16-469: RHP Anthony Simonelli, Virginia Tech. Unranked.
The Royals picked up a second Hokie arm in Anthony Simonelli, and he has a bit more power in his arsenal than Shane Connolly. Having transferred from Coastal Carolina to St. John's River CC, he came to Virginia Tech in 2020 then got in a full season in 2021, posting a 3.91 ERA and a 77/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 66.2 innings. Take out one really rough start against NC State in which he allowed eight runs in less than three innings, and those numbers drop to 2.95 and 74/23 over 64, so he was really one of Virginia Tech's most reliable arms this spring. The Winchester, Virginia native sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can get his four seamer up to 95, and he can also adjust to more of a cutter around 88-89. He adds a solid average curveball and a changeup, giving him a full arsenal that he can locate pretty well. The 6'2" righty has the size, command, and arsenal to start, but it remains to be seen whether he'll do so for Kansas City given their depth of pitching prospects and the uptempo, relatively high effort nature of his delivery. Simonelli pitches with passion and energy and can be seen hopping around the mound to keep himself locked in, and he can be especially animated after strikeouts or inning-ending plays. Besides being fun to watch, that bodes well for his future as the minors are a dogfight and he'll need every ounce of competitiveness to work his way up. That fire could play well in the bullpen, where his delivery might fit better anyways, and his stuff could take a step forward. Simonelli signed for $75,000 and has allowed three unearned runs over 3.2 innings in the ACL so far, striking out three.
17-499: C Luca Tresh, North Carolina State. My rank: #107.
Once we got through the first five or six rounds, and especially once we got deep into day three, it looked like Luca Tresh was heading back to NC State for a fourth season. All the money Kansas City saved on first rounder Frank Mozzicato helped them change that with a big, unexpected signing here, giving Tresh roughly the value of the 133rd pick (first of the fifth round) to turn pro instead. He's coming off a roller coaster of a career in Raleigh, as he broke out with a huge .405/.444/.690 showing in the shortened 2020 season then built off that progress in fall practice. After hitting seven home runs in his first eight games in 2021, he earned some first round buzz, but his production dropped off dramatically and he finished at .231/.310/.476 with 15 home runs and a 71/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. So now evaluators are left with the question of who is Luca Tresh? The guy who slashed .432/.488/.892 with ten home runs over an 18 game stretch from 2020 through the first couple weeks of 2021, or the one who has hit .142/.229/.359 with eight home runs in 48 games since then? As is usually the case, the answer lies between the two extremes. He packs plenty of strength into his compact 6' frame, enabling him to really put a charge into the ball when he squares it up. When Tresh is going right, he's disciplined at the plate and selects good pitches to unleash his power on, but for most of 2021 he lapsed into chasing bad pitches and looked lost at the plate more often than not. The Royals will obviously have to work with him on understanding his strike zone, but obviously part of it will be on him to learn to recognize spin better and trust his talent without pressing. Behind the plate, evaluators noted significant improvement in his glovework during his time in Raleigh, to the point where it will enough to keep him and his plus arm behind the plate. The Tampa-area native adds to a nice minor league catching corps for the Royals with MJ Melendez, Kale Emshoff, and Carter Jensen. Tresh signed for $423,000, of which $298,000 counts against the Royals' bonus pool, and he has three hits in eight at bats so far in the ACL.
18-529: RHP Harrison Beethe, Texas Christian. Unranked.
In the eighteenth round, the Royals decided to draft the pitcher with the single most electric arsenal left on the board, with the rest of his game be damned. Harrison Beethe began his career at North Iowa Area JC, then transferred back home to TCU two play just a couple of miles from where he grew up. The Fort Worth native has been used sparingly out of the Horned Frogs' bullpen, posting a 5.06 ERA and an ugly 7/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 5.1 innings this spring. It's a true power arsenal through and through, with Beethe sitting in the mid to upper 90's and touching 101 in short stints and adding a power upper 80's slider with short, tight bite. Unfortunately, he has very little feel for his delivery and generally has no idea where the ball is going, so there is no starter upside here. Instead, the Royals will keep him in the bullpen, work with him to find a motion that he can at least somewhat repeat enough to just aim the baseball in the general direction of the plate and fire away, and see what happens. Arms that touch triple digits do not grow on trees and in the eighteenth round, why not give it a shot? Age is a factor here, as the 6'5" righty turned 23 in April and still hasn't figured out how to throw strikes. He signed for $125,000.
