Showing posts with label Toronto Blue Jays. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Toronto Blue Jays. Show all posts

Monday, July 27, 2026

2026 MLB Draft Review: Toronto Blue Jays

Full list of draftees

Toronto was working with very limited draft capital after having their first round pick pushed back ten spots due to competitive balance overages and losing their second round pick and a fourth round compensation pick (for Bo Bichette) due to the Dylan Cease signing. They did well for themselves by pulling in a first round talent in Cole Carlon, who was regularly mocked in the 20's throughout the spring, even managing to capture some savings to use later on one of the most talented prep catchers in the country in Will Brick. Of course, giving Brick an even larger bonus than Carlon meant they had to find even more savings elsewhere, including signing five seniors for $5,000 or less in rounds five, six, eight, nine, and ten. As has become the Blue Jays' M.O., much of this draft was focused on high contact bats including two of the best pure hitters in the country in seventh rounder Dean West and eleventh rounder Brayden Martin. If either of those two can add some pop, they could find some late value.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-39: LHP Cole Carlon, Arizona State
Slot value: $2.57 million. Signing bonus: $2.4 million ($171,700 below slot value).
My rank: #34. MLB Pipeline: #26. ESPN: #28.
Despite not picking until #39, the Blue Jays picked up a first round talent in Cole Carlon. He was excellent as a reliever for Arizona State in 2025, then jumped into the Sun Devils' rotation without losing any stuff. His 133 strikeouts were fifth in NCAA while his 38% strikeout rate was also among the nation's best. The fastball sits in the mid 90's and touches 98 as a starter, grabbing triple digits in short stints. His short, tight slider is his money maker, with late downer action missing bats in bunches across the Big 12. He flips in a curveball and a decent changeup, but makes his money with the first two pitches. The 6'5" lefty has a closed off delivery that hides the ball well and further makes that cutter a devastating pitch, though with long limbs and a long way to go in his delivery his command can get scattered. He was able to rely on his stuff missing bats in the zone in college, but in pro ball the Blue Jays will work to get his delivery streamlined and tune the finer aspects of his arsenal to make him a more complete starting pitcher. There is a lot of upside here for a college starter, especially given his youth (he only turned 21 in May), and the fallback is that of a nasty fastball/slider lefty reliever touching triple digits. It's a pretty good gig for a pitcher here at #39, especially at a slight discount.

3-103: SS Ryan Cooney, Oregon
Slot value: $762,900. Signing bonus: $597,500 ($165,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #137. ESPN: #167.
The Blue Jays have been into high contact types lately and Ryan Cooney fits the bill. He hit .333 over the past two seasons at Oregon and has been steadily tacking on power as he's filled out, but the money is in the hit tool here. Listed at 6', 195 pounds, he's not a big guy but uses a direct, simple right handed swing to gash line drives around the field with ease. Cooney's power plays mostly to the gaps, where his 22 doubles were 16th in the country, and to the pull side, where he knocked a career-high eight home runs in 2026. He's a solid runner but can play all over the infield, with the arm and glove to make it work at shortstop or play a very solid second or third base. If Cooney can tack on a little bit of power, he has a chance to take over an every day role somewhere on the infield. More likely, he projects as a high batting average utility infield option who can move up the ladder quickly and stick around in the big leagues for a long time. His $597,500 signing bonus, like that of Cole Carlon, gives the Blue Jays a bit of a discount.

4-131: C Will Brick, Christian Brothers HS [TN]
Slot value: $581,100. Signing bonus: $2.5 million ($1.92 million above slot value).
My rank: #57. MLB Pipeline: #46. ESPN: #39.
The Blue Jays' biggest signing bonus of the draft came here in the fourth round to Will Brick, one of the top prep catchers in the class. Brick has long been a famous name out of the Tennessee high school ranks, originally as a member of the 2027 class. He reclassified to the 2026 class, where he's more age appropriate and has continued to make a name for himself. He was a top performer on the showcase circuit last summer and entered his senior spring a potential first rounder. The bat came out more good than great, dropping him into more of the second round range, but he still got paid like a top 40 pick because the Blue Jays believe in the upside. Brick has long earned his money with his defense, where he is an extremely advanced defender for his age with good glove getting better and better. His plus arm is another asset that he has used to cut down plenty of runners on the circuit and back in Memphis, though he's still learning some of the finer aspects of professional catcher defense, but no scouts doubt that he'll get there and then some. Listed at 6'2", 195 pounds with long arms and legs, he generates great leverage and the ball jumps off his bat in batting practice. Most scouts project him for above average power as he learns to deploy it in games. His hitting ability has been more up and down, showing very well on the showcase circuit but looking more uneven back home in Memphis this spring. Brick also sacrifices some power to make consistent contact against top arms, so the Blue Jays will want to help him find a balance there. The offensive bar for a catcher is lower than at other positions, especially given his standout defensive tools, so just a natural progression at the plate would make him a big league option. If the Blue Jays can help him tap his power consistently in games without raising the strikeout rate, he'll be Toronto's every day catcher of the future. Having reclassified up from the 2027 class, he's on the younger side for the class and only turned 18 in June.

7-222: OF Dean West, UCLA
Slot value: $262,300. Signing bonus: $196,725 ($65,575 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
As stated, the Blue Jays like contact bats, and Dean West brings them an extreme profile in that regard. He has never had trouble making contact at UCLA, striking out just 70 times in 144 career games for an elite 10.3% rate. He never, ever chases a pitch out of the zone and makes tons of contact when he does swing, giving him one of the best combinations of chase and contact rates in the country. Listed at 5'9", 185 pounds, he doesn't pack much punch at the plate and focuses more on gashing line drives around the field. He did hit a career-high seven home runs in 2026, typically a product of coiling up and turning on the ball. If he doesn't explicitly try to rope one over the right field wall, he's probably not getting one out, especially as he transitions to wood bats in pro ball. His .419 on-base percentage against top pitching in the Cape Cod League was extremely impressive, as was his tiny 11.7% strikeout rate, but he only had one extra base hit in 24 games and will be hard pressed to do more in pro ball. His 102.5 MPH 90th percentile exit velocity at the MLB Draft Combine in June was encouraging, still below average but enough to keep pitchers honest and a showcase of what happens when he does turn on the ball. The Los Angeles native is an above average runner with strong instincts on the bases and has a shot to stick in center field, though he played left field in deference to Phillies fifth rounder Will Gasparino at UCLA and doesn't have the arm for right field. He's probably a high contact fourth outfielder at peak. West is old for the class, turning 22 a month after the draft.

11-342: 3B Brayden Martin, Maryland
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $197,500 ($47,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: #243.
If Dean West has an extreme profile, then Brayden Martin is off the charts. West ran an excellent 11.0% strikeout rate and a nice 12.3% walk rate at UCLA in 2026, but Martin took it several steps further to an elite 7.0% strikeout rate and a sky-high 19.6% walk rate. Listed at 5'10", an inch taller than West, he is another undersized bat that refuses to chase and never, ever swings and misses. In fact, he only swung and missed a handful of times throughout the entire season at Maryland, running some of the best contact rates in the entire country. It's an extremely simple left handed setup for Martin, who uses his extremely quick hands to wait way back on the ball and see it deep into the zone before making his swing decision, still consistently getting to the ball on time and gashing line drives around the field. He might have even less power than West, who can at least turn on the ball occasionally, and focuses exclusively on poking the ball through holes in the defense. Like West, he managed to show some moderate pop at the combine (102.2 MPH 90th percentile exit velocity) and managed to hit one baseball nearly 400 feet, but again, the highest-end exit velocities will probably come on line drives. He likely works his way up as a utility infielder who gets on base and hits for a high average, though the defensive package is a bit light for shortstop despite plus speed. His off-the-charts control of the strike zone give him every chance to be a sleeper in this class even without power, like if Chandler Simpson traded some speed for plate discipline.

13-402: RHP Mathis Nayral, Kansas
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
Baseball's early days saw numerous European major leaguers as immigrants stepped off the boat from the old country, but as immigration patterns shifted over the 20th Century we haven't had many great born-and-raised Europeans. With baseball's expansion around the globe, it seems we may be entering a second wave with talent trickling in. Mathis Nayral grew up in Montpellier in the South of France, where he only picked up baseball at age eleven. After attending Lycée Bellevue about 200 kilometers to the west in Toulouse for high school, he attended a baseball showcase in Arizona and earned an emphatic offer from local Cochise JC. There, Nayral turned himself into one of the best JuCo pitchers in the area and caught the attention of Kansas, where he added several ticks of velocity to his fastball and held down a full time weekend rotation role. The fastball now sits in the low 90's and reaches 95, while he adds a cutter, slider, and changeup to round things out. The cutter is tight in the upper 80's and looks like a quality big league pitch, while the slider probably needs a little more finish to become a true swing and miss offering. The 6'5" righty has prototypical starting pitcher size with projection remaining, though at 22 years old already most of his velocity gains will probably come from mechanical refinements than additional physical development. He doesn't through with a ton of effort and Toronto could build off of Kansas' effort to bring more and more out of his strong lower half. Nayral is a solid strike thrower who could build up to average command in time, giving him a chance to start if he can take a step forward with his breaking ball. If not, he could be a fastball/cutter type and sit closer to the mid 90's.

Wednesday, November 5, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Toronto Blue Jays

Full list of draftees

While there is Trey Yesavage in this class that can make an immediate impact on the Blue Jays in 2026, they did a great job of drawing a wide variety of talents in to the system. Despite losing their second round pick due to the Anthony Santander signing, Toronto moved money around by shaving about 9% off of first rounder JoJo Parker's bonus and using that money to float a second round talent down to the twelfth round in Blaine Bullard. With their two highest-paid draftees being high school hitters (and three of their top four), the Blue Jays are banking on upside and could bring in a few future stars here. While position players dominated the higher paid draftees (overall five of top six bonuses), pitchers made up the bulk of the mid to smaller bonus draftees as Toronto opted for depth on that front after hitting a home run on Yesavage.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-8: SS JoJo Parker, Purvis HS [MS]
Slot value: $6.81 million. Signing bonus: $6.2 million ($613,600 below slot value).
My rank: #10. MLB Pipeline: #9. Baseball America: #10.
A year after landing World Series starting pitcher Trey Yesavage with their first round pick, the Blue Jays went the opposite route with a high school bat in JoJo Parker to start things off in 2025. Previously committed to Mississippi State, #8 pick Parker will instead head north of the border for a slightly below slot bonus that is just under the allotment for the #10 pick. From Eli Willits to Ethan Holliday to Steele Hall to Billy Carlson to Daniel Pierce, there were many interesting prep bats available at the top of the draft, yet perhaps none is as complete a hitter as Parker. To say he can swing it would be an understatement. Listed at 6'2", 200 pounds, he already looks like a big leaguer with a thick, strong frame that generates easy bat speed from the left side. His power has ticked up over time and now appears above average, with a chance to get to plus if he can elevate the ball a bit more and continue to tack on strength. Many Mississippi prep bats, especially those from rural areas such as Purvis (about fourteen miles south of Hattiesburg), have been derided as raw from a hit tool perspective. Not Parker. He was excellent against high caliber showcase opponents last summer, showing little drop-off in moving from Southern Mississippi competition to the best in the country. Indeed, he still came back and won the Mississippi Gatorade State Player of the Year award this past spring, demolishing everything in sight and looking every bit of a plus hitter. There are some scouts that even put a 70 grade on Parker's ability to work counts, use the whole field, and get on base. Ultimately, this is a mature hitter beyond his years with burgeoning thump who could hit in the middle of the lineup in Toronto in short order. That's 25+ home runs annually with high on-base percentages if he reaches his peak. Meanwhile, he is a fringy runner who can lumber a bit in the infield, making shortstop a stretch long term. He has just enough arm to play a solid third base, which seems like his most likely destination to me, or he could slide over and become an offense-oriented second baseman. Either way, the bat will carry him to the big leagues and the fact that he can stick on the infield at all is just a big cherry on top. His twin brother, Jacob, was a nineteenth round pick of the Diamondbacks this year and ranked #138 on my board, but he'll make it to campus rather than join the Snakes.

3-81: OF Jake Cook, Southern Mississippi
Slot value: $993,900. Signing bonus: $922,500 ($71,400 below slot value).
My rank: #89. MLB Pipeline: #106. Baseball America: #211.
Blue Jays scouting director Mark Tramuta must have enjoyed his trips to Southern Mississippi because after taking Purvis High School shortstop JoJo Parker in the first round, he turned around and took Southern Miss outfielder Jake Cook with his second pick just fourteen miles to the north. Cook is a very, very different prospect, but a fascinating one nonetheless. Originally recruited as a two-way player, he sat on the bench as a freshman in 2023 then saw his first game action in 2024, but only made three relief appearances and allowed at least three runs in each. Switching to hitting full time in 2025, he picked up a bat for the first time since high school and the results were phenomenal, earning second team all-Sun Belt honors despite the layoff in reps. Cook stands out first and foremost for some of the best athleticism the draft as seen in recent years. At the MLB Draft Combine back in June, his 30 yard dash time (3.51s) tied the Combine's all time record while his 10'8" long jump set the record. With that elite speed and athleticism, combined with his lean 6'3", 185 pound frame, he seems like the kind of guy who could slot right in as a pro wide receiver. Secondarily, his next best tool is bat to ball, as he runs some of the best contact rates in the country with a flat left handed swing that can adjust to about anywhere in the zone. The power is well below average for now, possibly as low as a 30 grade, as his modest exit velocities get no help from that flat swing that is geared to knock line drives from gap to gap. While his elite speed has yet to translate into any baserunning success, it does serve him extremely well in center field where he has a chance to compete for Gold Gloves with excellent instincts and an arm that can run fastballs up to 96 on the mound. It's a really fun profile for the Blue Jays to tinker with. On one hand, the power is far, far away from being a game changer. On the other, projection remains on his lean 6'3" frame. He has the bat to ball to make it work, and even if he sacrificed some contact to start getting the ball up in the air a little more, he'll never have to worry about striking out too much. Combine those factors with the fact that you simply cannot teach the athleticism he has, and this profile could develop in any number of directions. Let's just wait back and enjoy the ride.

4-112: RHP Micah Bucknam, Dallas Baptist
Slot value: $680,00. Signing bonus: $678,300 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #131. Baseball America: #323.
In the fourth round, the Blue Jays picked up the first of two consecutive Canadians in their draft class. Born in New Zealand, he grew up in Abbotsford, a mid-size city about forty miles southeast of Vancouver. He went to Mennonite Educational Institute in Abbotsford and drew Toronto's attention, but he turned down the Blue Jays in the 16th round and headed to LSU. He flashed big stuff for the Tigers but struggled to break through their deep bullpen, then transferred to Dallas Baptist for the 2025 season where he took off as the club's Friday night starter. Bucknam throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's, touching 97 at peak, but the pitch plays down because of a generic movement profile. Instead, he stands out most for his secondary pitches. The slider comes in with upper 80's power and tight, late bite to miss a ton of bats, while his truer curveball slows hitters down and proves equally difficult to square up. There is also a changeup in the mix, fading firmly to the glove side at best, though it is less consistent than his other pitches. Bucknam's control is ahead of his command and while he pounds the zone aggressively (a respectable 9.1% walk rate in 2025), he doesn't hit his spots so well and with a straight fastball, that can get him in trouble. The 6'1" righty is well built, appears durable, and repeats his clean delivery well, and with the four pitch mix he should have what it takes to stick in the rotation. The Blue Jays would like to find a way to pull more movement out of his fastball, which already has the velocity to be an effective big league pitch. If they can, there is suddenly mid-rotation upside here as a guy who can really spin the ball and fill up the strike zone. If not, those breaking balls in short stints will give hitters fits.

5-143: 3B Tim Piasentin, Foothills Composite HS [AB]
Slot value: $503,800. Signing bonus: $747,500 ($243,700 above slot value).
My rank: #145. MLB Pipeline: #160. Baseball America: #108.
Two picks, two kids from British Columbia for the Blue Jays. Tim Piasentin, who signed for late third round money here in the fifth round rather than attend Miami, grew up in the eastern Vancouver suburb of Coquitlam but attended powerhouse Foothills Composite High School a province over in Okotoks, about twenty miles south of Calgary. There, he caught scouts' attention with a 6'3", 200 pound, big league-ready body and power to match. His left handed swing is geared to clobber baseballs in the air, while his strength plays for potentially plus raw power. One of Canada's more famous prep prospects for a while now, he has been seen frequently against higher level international competition and has performed well, leading to confidence that his power will translate against pro pitching even if there are some questions about his ability to hit quality offspeed stuff. There is a chance he grows into 25-30 home runs annually with decent on-base percentages to hit near the middle of the Blue Jays' lineup. Defensively, Toronto will work him hard to keep him at third base. He moves well for his size and has a cannon right arm, giving him something to go off to start. He'll need to maintain his conditioning and agility in order to stick, and if he slows down at all as he matures physically, he may have to move to first base. That would put more pressure on the hit tool, as plus power is harder to come by at the hot corner than it is at first base. Toronto likely believes in the hit tool, the defense, or both and sees him as an every day power hitter for their future lineups.

6-172: SS Eric Snow, Auburn
Slot value: $383,600. Signing bonus: $381,100 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #462.
Eric Snow did not rank highly on big public boards, but this is a nice find for Toronto. Snow rode a big spring at Mary Parsons High School in central Georgia to significant late movement up draft boards, but ultimately decided to head to USF to further that momentum. He hit well as a freshman and seemed to position himself well for a standout college career, but took a step backwards as a sophomore and saw his OPS drop 264 points from .944 to .680. Transferring to Auburn for his junior season, he bounced back in a big way with his OPS rising back to .896 despite the Tigers' tough SEC schedule. Snow is the shortest player in this Blue Jays draft class at just 5'8", but he punches above his weight. He is an excellent contact hitter that controls the strike zone well, showing plus bat to ball skills that helped him strike out just 10.2% of the time in 2025. He uses the whole field effectively with a simple, direct right handed swing and should have no trouble jumping from the SEC to pro ball, a year after jumping from the AAC to the SEC. While he'll always be contact over power, Snow has a little thump in his bat and projects for fringy raw power, enough to comfortably project for 10-15 home runs per season at the big league level. Combine that with potentially high batting averages from an infielder and you have a sneaky every day big leaguer. While he may not be able to stick at shortstop, he has seen time all over the infield and likely projects as an average defensive second baseman.

9-262: RHP Karson Ligon, Mississippi State
Slot value: $206,900. Signing bonus: $125,000 ($81,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Karson Ligon didn't ranked on many public boards, but he's a real arm that could contribute in Toronto soon. Ligon began his career as well-regarded freshman at Miami, where he spent two seasons in the rotation to solid results. He transferred to Mississippi State for his junior season, spent most of the season in the bullpen, then found his way back into the starting rotation in 2025 where he made fifteen starts. After four seasons at two power programs, he has 56 appearances (42 starts) under his belt and has thrown over 200 collegiate innings. It's a really solid four pitch imx. Ligon sits in the low 90's with his fastball and reaches the mid 90's at peak, albeit with average movement. His best pitch is a hard downer slider in the upper 80's that dives under bats late, while his true curveball looks to be another above average pitch with hammer action. The Florida native misses bats with his changeup as well, diving to the arm side late to round out the arsenal. Ligon's command is probably more on the fringy side, but he has a clean delivery and with pro coaching could reach average command in time. He has a durable frame at 6'1", 210 pounds and has reached both double digit starts and 50+ innings in three of his four college seasons, so if he can hold the command together just enough, he could be a #4 or #5 MLB starter. It's not necessarily the kind of profile that explodes in the bullpen, but he spins the ball well enough that he could be very effective in that role as well.

11-322: LHP Jared Spencer, Texas
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $165,000 ($15,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: #114. MLB Pipeline: #113. Baseball America: #115.
This is incredible value for the Blue Jays in the eleventh round, barely above slot value, though it may say something about his medical outlook. Jared Spencer began his career at Indiana State, where he pitched in a variety of roles over three seasons and made 59 appearances. Transferring to Texas for his senior year, he came out of the gate red hot with gems against Louisville, Washington, and Santa Clara. After more pedestrian starts in his first three SEC outings, he dominated Georgia and threw very well against Kentucky to vault himself into the top two rounds conversation. Unfortunately, he went down with a shoulder injury in April and had season-ending surgery, clouding the draft status of a pitcher who turned 22 on draft day. When healthy, Spencer has some of the best left handed stuff in the class. The fastball sits in the mid 90's and touches 98 with run, quite a few ticks higher than he sat at Indiana State. His slider is his best pitch with plus, late bite diving under bats, while his changeup has stepped forward in Austin as well and now looks average. The 6'3" lefty has an athletic, projectable frame, though his uptempo delivery impacts his command which is presently just fringy. With a potent three pitch mix, big frame, and strong track record, he should still have the profile to be a solid mid-rotation starter even with the fringy command, but the shoulder injury really clouds things. Shoulders are notoriously unpredictable, much more so than elbows, and judging by how far Spencer fell in the draft, I'd be a bit concerned about the current prognosis. If there are any lingering effects from the shoulder injury when he hopefully returns in 2026, there is a good chance he falls to the bullpen given his command. In that role, many have compared him to Josh Hader, a comparison certainly helped by his long brown hair.

12-352: OF Blaine Bullard, Klein Cain HS [TX]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $1.2 million ($1.05 million against bonus pool).
My rank: #90. MLB Pipeline: #120. Baseball America: #151.
The Blue Jays' second biggest bonus of the draft came not in the second round, not in the third round, but in the twelfth round, where Blaine Bullard signed away from a Texas A&M commitment for roughly the value of the #70 pick. He ranked right next to Jays' third rounder Jake Cook on my pre-draft board at #89 and #90, and the way he's trending he has a chance to outplay that ranking. Bullard was a helium guy who rocketed up draft boards with a very strong spring at Klein Cain High School in the Houston suburbs, catching the eyes of regional scouts and eventually national scouting directors. Listed at 6'2", 180 pounds, he has an athletic frame to dream on still with plenty of room to add good weight. He's a switch hitter with a pair of quick swings that can ambush baseballs and turn velocity around effortlessly, leading to a potential above average hit tool. It's a line drive bat for now, but given his frame it's not hard to see him tacking on significant strength and becoming an average or better power hitter in addition to a strong contact bat. The swing can get steep at times, especially from the right side, but that should iron out with pro coaching. Throw in his plus speed and twitchy athleticism and it is really an exciting profile. Toronto's player development will have a lot to work with and if they get it right, could turn Bullard into a 20-20 center fielder who can hit for heathy batting averages too. The combination of floor and ceiling here is pretty hard to find outside of the top couple of rounds, part of why I had him ranked well above many other outlets.

Wednesday, August 21, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Toronto Blue Jays

Full list of draftees

The Blue Jays started their draft with a bang, grabbing arguably a top ten talent for a very reasonable signing bonus at the #20 pick as they embarked on a pitching-heavy draft class. Eleven of the nineteen picks they signed were arms, including each of the first three. Rather than targeting all-tools-no-polish types, Toronto opted for more safe-bet and classic projection picks for a lower risk class. Trey Yesavage alone makes this class a huge win, and I'm a fan of eighth rounder Eddie Micheletti as well. With money left over on day three, they were also able to hand out over slot bonuses to three preps while letting D'Marion Terrell walk to Auburn.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-20: RHP Trey Yesavage, East Carolina {video}
Slot value: $4.07 million. Signing bonus: $4.18 million ($104,100 above slot value).
My rank: #11. MLB Pipeline: #11. Baseball America: #11.
Getting Trey Yesavage here at pick #20, and at just barely over the slot value (still less than the #19 slot value), is an absolute coup for the Blue Jays. Yesavage had rumored interest as high as #8 overall to the Angels, and beyond that was tied to numerous teams throughout the early and mid teens. The consensus #3 college pitcher in the country for much of the season behind Chase Burns and Hagen Smith, he got some competition for that title late from Jurrangelo Cijntje but most still had the ECU right safely ahead of his Mississippi State counterpart. Statistically, Yesavage was one of the most dominant pitchers in the country in a year where offense was up across the league. In fifteen starts, he went 11-1 with a 2.03 ERA and a 145/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 93.1 innings, including a fifteen strikeout performance against Wichita State in April. Stuff-wise, he's one of the best in the country too. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 98 at peak, coming in with massive riding live (22" IVB!) from an ultra high release height nearing seven feet. It's a full arsenal behind the fastball, beginning with a hard cutter/slider in the upper 80's with late two-plane tilt. He's backed off his signature curveball a little bit but it's a real hammer with hard, sharp bite. His splitter has really come along as well, missing a ton of bats with late off-the-table action and giving him a real weapon against lefties. Altogether, he shows above average command and has possibly the most complete profile of any pitching prospect in this draft class. The Pennsylvania native stands 6'4" with a strong, sturdy frame, albeit one lacking much further projection (not that he needs it), and has proven durable in 169.1 innings over 31 appearances (30 starts) the last two seasons. The delivery is simple and compact, based more on strength than any kind of explosive athleticism, and he repeats it well with an ultra high, over the top release point that brings the ball straight down on hitters. To top it off, Yesavage is very young for the class and didn't turn 21 until after the draft. This is a legitimate #2 starter profile.

2-59: RHP Khal Stephen, Mississippi State {video}
Slot value: $1.49 million. Signing bonus: $1.12 million ($372,250 below slot value).
My rank: #124. MLB Pipeline: #88. Baseball America: #105.
Khal Stephen's ascent has been impressive. Hailing from a small town in western Indiana, he began his career nearby at Purdue and spent two seasons more or less under the radar. He caught Mississippi State's attention with a strong run through the Cape Cod League (2.73 ERA, 27/11 K/BB in 26.1 IP) and transferred down south, where he opened a ton of eyes with one of the better, more consistent seasons of any SEC starting pitcher this year. Stephen's arsenal is fairly ordinary, beginning with a low 90's fastball that touches 97 with plenty of riding life from a fairly high slot. His slider comes in with good power and dives under bats late when located, while he also has a less used curveball and changeup that round out the arsenal well. He has plus command from a simple delivery and sequences his pitches well, which helped him carve up SEC lineups full of future pro hitters. The 6'4" righty is durable and looks the part of a #4 or #5 starting pitcher, one who could move relatively quickly if he gets enough out of his secondaries to keep missing bats. He does lack a strikeout pitch which limits his upside, but the Blue Jays love the sum of his parts and his trajectory and think he's a high probability MLB starter.

3-95: LHP Johnny King, Naples HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $767,200. Signing bonus: $1.25 million ($480,300 above slot value).
My rank: #107. MLB Pipeline: #124. Baseball America: #120.
Toronto's largest over slot bonus went to Johnny King, a high school arm out of Florida, to sign him away from a Miami commitment. King has a ton to like and the sky is really the limit if the Blue Jays develop him right. The fastball isn't overwhelming, sitting in the low 90's and touching 95 with run and sink from a low slot, but it's a great start for a high schooler when combined with his other traits. He's begun to separate his curveball and slider, which previously blended together, into sharp, distinct bat missers with more depth and shape. His changeup, while inconsistent, gives him a fourth promising pitch. King stands 6'3" and is built like a string bean, which when you combine with his extreme youth (17 on draft day), makes him extremely projectable. That means the fastball is almost certain to tick up a little bit and his breaking balls should continue getting sharper and harder, giving him the chance to become much more of a "stuff" guy down the line. King has also gotten more consistent with his delivery, which features a three quarters arm slot to get that running action, and his command is getting closer to average. He has an extremely long way to go and won't be in the majors for a long time, but the Blue Jays think his projectability and athleticism will turn him into an impact left handed starter. It's pretty hard to draw them up any better than King at 17 years old.

4-125: 3B Sean Keys, Bucknell {video}
Slot value: $572,200. Signing bonus: $569,700 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #159. MLB Pipeline: #211. Baseball America: #151.
For their first bat, the Blue Jays did not get cheated. An unheralded recruit out of Long Island, he didn't play much as a freshman but broke out to hit .339/.444/.679 as a sophomore in 2023. In 2024, he took it to a whole new level, slashing .405/.535/.798 in 46 games. Raw numbers alone, he was one of the best hitters in the country, but Bucknell does play in the Patriot League which is on the lower end of Division I competition. Keys is built strong at 6'2", 225 pounds, using a simple left handed swing to effortlessly tap his plus raw power in games. He also rarely chased in 2024, albeit of course against Patriot League pitching, leading to a high contact rate to go with his plus power. The jump to professional pitching will be steep, but Keys performed well in a small sample in the Cape Cod League, slashing .333/.393/.646 with four home runs in a dozen games. Meanwhile, he moves pretty well at third base despite his bigger size, and has a chance to stick there if he maintains his body and really puts in the work. There's a good chance he does move to first though if he slows down at all, which seems likely, and that will really put pressure on his bat to make the jump. Keys projects as a left handed, power hitting platoon bat, but he has a chance to play every day if he continues to make contact at a high rate, while sticking at third base would further his chances. He's still adjusting to pro pitching and is so far slashing .194/.268/.333 with one home run and a 12/4 strikeout to walk ratio in nine games for Low A Dunedin.

4C-136: OF Nick Mitchell, Indiana {video}
Slot value: $515,100. Signing bonus: $467,500 ($47,600 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #301.
Nick Mitchell spent his first two seasons at Western Illinois, then turned in a nice showing in the Cape Cod League while earning a transfer spot at Indiana back in his home state. Mitchell continued to rake at Indiana, and now he comes off the board perhaps a few rounds earlier than most expected. Clocking in with a compact 5'10" frame, he's a very different hitter from the man Toronto drafted eleven slots in front of him. Mitchell uses a quick left handed swing to gash line drives around the field, combining a very patient approach with high contact rates to walk (15.4%) more than he struck out (13.8%) in 2024. There's some moderate pop in the bat and he can send it out when he turns on the ball, so he could top out around 10-15 home runs per season at peak if we're lucky, but he'll always be a hit over power type that will knock lots of doubles and triples. He's an above average runner who can get up to plus when he turns on the jets, which further helps that profile, and could have a shot at center field if he maintains that speed and shows a little more defensive refinement in pro ball. It's a pretty clear fourth outfielder profile as a guy who can get on base, steal some bases, and ambush pitchers with a little bit of power, though the upside may be a bit limited. He was extremely young for a college junior, not turning 21 until well after the draft. So far, he's slashing .286/.364/.543 with a couple home runs and a 10/6 strikeout to walk ratio through nine games at Low A Dunedin.

5-158: RHP Jackson Wentworth, Kansas State {video}
Slot value: $414,600. Signing bonus: $412,100 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #205. MLB Pipeline: #164. Baseball America: #429.
Jackson Wentworth is another guy who came out of nowhere. He didn't pitch as a freshman, then posted an 8.72 ERA in 2023 and began 2024 in the bullpen. However, he showed so well that he eventually moved to the rotation and his 115 strikeouts placed him tied for fourth in the Big 12 and eighteenth in Division I overall (among those ahead was Jays' first rounder Trey Yesavage at #5 in the nation). The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96, coming in with moderate riding life from a higher slot, so it's fairly ordinary overall from a pro perspective. Wentworth has a full arsenal of secondary stuff including a hard cutter, two-plane slider, truer curveball, and a nice changeup, all of which look like at least average major league pitches with a few potentially popping towards above average. The 6'1" righty pounds the strike zone with above average command and gets nice deception in his funkier delivery which features a deep arm plunge and exaggerated rock-back. This is a pretty safe #4/#5 starter profile, perhaps with a bit more upside if the Blue Jays can get one or two pitches to take a step forwards and get closer to plus. On the downside, he's old for a college junior and turned 22 less than a mont after the draft, making him more than a year older than Nick Mitchell one pick earlier in this class.

6-187: C Aaron Parker, UC Santa Barbara {video}
Slot value: $323,400. Signing bonus: $297,500 ($25,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Aaron Parker has done nothing but hit in three years in Santa Barbara, slashing .354/.438/.597 for his career while blasting 22 home runs in a 109 game sample. It's a very solid all-around profile, with a nice combination of power and contact. Parker starts upright with a simple stance and a low handset, but shows a lot of hand movement as he waggles into his load. It's an accurate barrel as he gets his whole body into his swing, creating average raw power that he can tap to all fields, and he's a patient enough hitter to ensure he's getting the right pitches to drive. There can be some swing and miss when he can't get his hands into the right position, but overall he keeps the strikeout rate down and the walk rate up. Behind the plate, he's considered a fringy to solid defender who has a chance to stick back there at the next level, which would certainly make the offensive profile look even more enticing. He's a smaller guy at 5'9" and would likely be limited to left field if he had to move out, so the Blue Jays likely believe in his glove. He's off to a hot start with the bat, slashing .265/.390/.531 with three home runs and, perhaps most impressively, an even 10/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 games.

8-247: OF Eddie Micheletti Jr., Virginia Tech {video}
Slot value: $208,700. Signing bonus: $147,500 ($61,200 below slot value).
My rank: #207. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
I may be a bit biased because he's a Hokie, but I think the Blue Jays have a potential sleeper here. Eddie Micheletti began his career at George Washington, where he turned a big junior season into a transfer opportunity to Virginia Tech. Despite the jump in competition from the A-10 to the ACC, he hit the ground running and spent the season right in the middle of a strong Virginia Tech lineup. Well built at 6'1", he shows above average raw power that plays down to average in games because he's more focused on using the whole field and knocking line drives. He did homer off of second overall pick Chase Burns, which you can see in the video above. Meanwhile, Micheletti is an exceptionally disciplined hitter who took the best at bats in the Hokie lineup this year, running elite chase rates to force pitchers to come to him. When they did, he rarely missed, and he was one of just three players on the BA 500 (out of 145 total) to post a contact rate above 85%, a chase rate below 16%, and a 90th percentile exit velocity above 105 MPH – the other two were first overall pick Travis Bazzana and Rangers seventh rounder Rafe Perich, both of whom are rightly considered "metric monsters." All told, this is an extremely well-rounded offensive profile that could very well hit enough to play every day. The pressure will be on the bat, as the Wilmington (DE) native is a below average runner who will likely slot in at first base or left field, and he's also a senior sign that will turn 23 in the offseason. Still, I really like this value as an eighth round money saving senior sign. So far he has made quick work of Low A pitching, slashing .333/.472/.481 with a 6/5 strikeout to walk ratio in eight games for Dunedin.

9-277: RHP Colby Holcombe, Mississippi State {video}
Slot value: $190,100. Signing bonus: $197,500 ($7,400 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Colby Holcombe had a big freshman year at Northeast Mississippi JC in 2022, earning himself the #169 spot on my draft board that year, but after following through on a commitment to Mississippi State he hasn't built his stock. In two seasons in Starkville, Holcombe carries a 9.05 ERA and an 18.7% walk rate over thirty appearances, so the Blue Jays are drafting pure arm talent here. The 6'6", 250 pound righty has one of the bigger arms in the class, running his fastball up to 99 back at Northeast Mississippi and regularly grabbing the upper 90's in short stints at Mississippi State. He throws a hard slider and curveball that can miss bats as well, making him a high octane arm in relief. To this point, well below average command has held him back as he has struggled to both stay ahead of hitters in counts and execute his big stuff in the zone. There may also be a lack of deception here, letting hitters sitting in 1-0 and 2-0 counts better pick up his stuff out of the hand. At this point, the North Alabama native is almost certainly a reliever, and the Blue Jays will look to clean up his delivery a little bit to help him wrangle his stuff a little bit better. Just on size and arm strength alone, he has big upside in the 'pen. After shouldering a lighter workload at Mississippi State this year, Holcombe has already gotten started at Low A Dunedin having tossed six innings of one run ball with a 3/4 strikeout to walk ratio across three appearances.

12-367: RHP Carson Messina, Summerville HS [SC] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $550,000 ($400,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: #192. MLB Pipeline: #222. Baseball America: #134.
The Messina family had two boys in the draft this year, with older brother Cole going to the Rockies in the third round while younger brother Carson found his way to the Blue Jays in the twelfth round, albeit signing for late fourth round money. Like Colby Holcombe, this is an arm strength play, though Carson Messina has a better chance to stick in the rotation. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and touches 98 early in starts, though it fades into the low 90's as he gets into the middle innings. Known for his feel for spin, he snaps off an above average slider with late bite that can overwhelm even advanced prep batters, giving him a great one-two punch with which to enter pro ball. At this point, that's the attraction. He's still working to develop a tertiary changeup while his moderately high-effort delivery can lead to fringy command and fading velocity. He'll look to develop physically in the Toronto system and get more athletic with his delivery while learning to repeat it better, which could help him make it as a starter. To me, I see more of a fastball/slider reliever that could be highly impactful in short stints.

Sunday, August 6, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Toronto Blue Jays

Full list of draftees

Despite not having a second round pick after signing Chris Bassitt, the Blue Jays still managed an exceptional class. In every class, players fall just because they happen to be the second name on a lot of boards when those teams' turns come around, and I think the Blue Jays did a great job of scooping up the guys who shouldn't have fallen as far as they did. I think they have a potential star in Arjun Nimmala, and many of their subsequent picks were simply too talented to still be available where they were. And Toronto managed to pick up two Canadians to boot. This is one of my favorite classes out there in terms of value for where they were picking. If there's one missed opportunity with this class, it's that they left not one, not two, but three draft picks unsigned in the 14th, 17th, and 18th rounds.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-20: SS Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $3.75 million. Signing bonus: $3 million ($746,000 below slot value).
My rank: #9. MLB Pipeline: #11. Baseball America: #17. Prospects Live: #12.
The Blue Jays must have been thrilled to land Arjun Nimmala here after hearing he had interest within the top ten picks, and not only did they get him at #20, they got him for nearly a $750,000 discount by paying him roughly the money for the #27 slot. The upside here is tremendous, sharing some similarities to current Blue Jays prospect Orelvis Martinez. Nimmala stands a skinny 6'1", but unleashes a truly explosive right handed swing that could give him plus power in time, an especially scary thought because he still has plenty of room to fill out. That's the carrying tool here, but it's a great carrying tool. He can get streaky with the bat, sometimes letting his swing get swoopy and getting out in front of offspeed or tied up on fastballs, leading to higher strikeout totals than you'd like from a first round bat. On the other hand, he's extremely young for the class and won't turn 18 until October, so he's really been playing up against older competition. Red Sox prospect Blaze Jordan was in a similar situation as a 17 year old high school senior and after taking some time to adjust, has really put it together in Boston's system. The Blue Jays hope Nimmala can follow a similar path, eventually getting to an average hit tool with plus power that could make him an impact hitter in Toronto. Defensively, Nimmala has a chance to make it work at shortstop with an above average arm, but his actions overall aren't the smoothest and he'll need significant refinement to stick there, especially with just average speed. In the likelihood that he gets pushed off the position, he should be at least average if not above average at second base or third base. The ability to stick on the infield and provide value buys his bat additional time beyond what his youth buys him. Another interesting note is that I watched an interview with him from last fall, and when asked what kind of team he wanted to get drafted by, the very first thing he mentioned was that he wanted to play somewhere "hot, not cold, I don't like the cold." Maybe you guys in Toronto can keep the roof closed for this Tampa-area native and former Florida State commit? Joking aside, I also got from the interview that he seems to have an exceptional head on his shoulders, a very well spoken young kid mature beyond his years. One of the only professional baseball players of Indian descent (after Karan Patel's release from the White Sox' system, the only other one I know if is Angels prospect Roman Phansalkar), he actually grew up playing cricket, which may give him an interesting perspective on baseball. Overall, I see a massive talent that could provide 25-30 home runs annually with decent on-base percentages while starting every day somewhere on the infield – that's All Star upside. So far, he has a single, a double, a strikeout, and a pair of walks in seven plate appearances in the Florida Complex League.

3-89: RHP Juaron Watts-Brown, Oklahoma State {video}
Slot value: $771,500. Signing bonus: $1 million ($288,500 above slot value).
My rank: #51. MLB Pipeline: #67. Baseball America: #46. Prospects Live: #51.
Juaron Watts-Brown was on the fringes of the first round conversation after picking up some helium last fall, but his 2023 spring was more good than great and the Blue Jays snatched him up for an over slot bonus in the third round, giving him the money for #72 overall here at #89. Watts-Brown was originally committed to Texas Tech but pivoted to Long Beach State in his home state after getting hurt in his senior year. After redshirting as a freshman in 2021, he posted a strong 2022 (3.68 ERA, 111/29 K/BB) and transferred to Oklahoma State, where he had an up and down 2023 with a 5.03 ERA and a 124/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.1 innings. At his best, Watts-Brown looks like he's in the perfect spot to continue trending up towards becoming an ace. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and touches 96, with more velocity almost certainly coming. His best pitch is a plus slider with bullet action and he leans on it heavily, while his deeper curveball and an average changeup fill out the arsenal. The stuff can be inconsistent as can his command, so there are many days where it flattens out and he leaves it over the plate to get hit. On others, the slider is diving and the curveball looks sharp while he spots it to both sides of the plate. The Blue Jays believe in the latter, and they think bringing that out can make him a mid-rotation starter. To boot, the 6'3" righty is very athletic on the mound and gets great extension towards the plate, helping his pitches play up a bit and promising more power for his stuff as he continues to fill out. In that regard, adding strength would be another boon to the profile. 2023 wasn't exactly what he wanted it to be, but I still believe in the end product.

4-121: RHP Landen Maroudis, Calvary Christian HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $547,100. Signing bonus: $1.5 million ($952,900 above slot value).
My rank: #66. MLB Pipeline: #72. Baseball America: #82. Prospects Live: #76.
All of that money the Blue Jays saved on Arjun Nimmala, and then about $200,000 more, went here to Landen Maroudis, who took roughly the slot value for the #55 pick to sign at #121 rather than head to NC State. He was part of the most talented rotation in high school baseball this spring, joining Liam Peterson (#85 on my list) and Hunter Dietz (#202) who will head to Florida and Arkansas, respectively. While Peterson entered the spring the top prospect of the group, Maroudis pushed past him with an excellent senior season and now looks like he could be an impact arm in Toronto. His fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96, while his curveball has been inconsistent to this point and is still searching for its identity. His changeup has a chance to be his best pitch, something you don't see often from high school pitchers. Similarly to Juaron Watts-Brown, I'm most intrigued by his athleticism on the mound and I think he could explode in a pro development system. A talented hitter and shortstop as well, the 6'3" righty utilizes a drop and drive delivery with an explosive lower half that helps him drive down the mound with conviction. As he fills out and build up durability, his stuff could really shoot forward. At this point, the breaking ball is probably the biggest piece for Toronto to focus on, and he has a shot to be a mid-rotation starter.

5-157: LHP Connor O'Halloran, Michigan {video}
Slot value: $385,000. Signing bonus: $337,500 ($47,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #164. Baseball America: #162. Prospects Live: #200.
In the fifth round, the Blue Jays picked up a hometown kid from the Toronto suburb of Mississauga and a product of St. Martin Secondary School about fourteen miles southwest of the Rogers Centre. Connor O'Halloran stayed close to home for college at Michigan, where he improved every year and earned Big Ten Pitcher of the Year honors in 2023 with a 4.11 ERA and a 110/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings. He earned that distinction on the back of an exceptionally hot start to the season, carrying a 1.92 ERA into mid April and a 2.49 ERA into late April, but he put up a 7.92 ERA over his final six starts. Regardless, O'Halloran continued to run strong peripherals even during his late season slide and gives the Blue Jays an intriguing developmental piece. His fastball sits in the upper 80's, touching a modest 94 at best, while his above average slider dives across the plate and his average changeup gives hitters another pitch to think about. Everything plays up because of his deceptive delivery and low release point, hiding the ball behind his back until the last second to make it jump on you a little faster than you'd expect given the modest velocity. The 6'2" lefty also shows above average command and executes his pitches well, staying ahead in the count and helping him lean more heavily on that slider. Still, the Blue Jays will want to help him add a couple ticks of velocity to get him into the low 90's more consistently, where he'll have some margin for error, and the deception, release point, and command can do the rest of the work from there. O'Halloran does have projection remaining and like many Canadians he's extremely young for the class, only set to turn 21 in September.

6-184: OF Jace Bohrofen, Arkansas {video}
Slot value: $304,700. Signing bonus: $302,200 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #70. MLB Pipeline: #66. Baseball America: #106. Prospects Live: #72.
This has a chance to be an absolute steal for the Blue Jays. Jace Bohrofen is one of the most talented players in college baseball, but to this point he has been just inconsistent enough to drop down to the sixth round. A star prospect out of high school in the Oklahoma City area, he began his career at Oklahoma after pricing himself out of the 2020 draft but didn't get regular playing time as a freshman. He put in a strong run through the Cape Cod League that summer and transferred to Arkansas, where again he struggled to earn a spot in the lineup everyday and lost some of his prospect sheen. After another strong turn in the Cape Cod League, bringing his two year slash line to .273/.371/.505 against elite pitching, he finally broke out with a huge junior season in 2023 by slashing .318/.436/.612 with 16 home runs and a 63/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games. At the height of his breakout, he was earning looks in the top fifty picks, but like Connor O'Halloran he slumped in the second half and wound up here in the sixth round. He is extremely well built at 6'2", 205 pounds, showing above average raw power with some impressive exit velocities to the pull side that have some envisioning plus power down the line with a more refined approach. He tracks fastballs very well and can do damage against breaking balls as well, though his pure bat to ball ability is fringy and his 23.6% strikeout rate in 2023 was higher than you'd like to see. Fortunately, his long track record of success on the Cape against the best college baseball has to offer eases some of those concerns a bit, but the inconsistency is a bit of a red flag. Bohrofen is an average runner with an average arm who should make for a solid right fielder or an above average left fielder, though the pressure is on the bat. Very physical with a long, albeit uneven, track record of success, Bohrofen has every day upside if he can reign in the strikeouts a bit or otherwise profiles as a strong fourth outfielder. Through six games in the Florida Complex League, he's slashing .231/.375/.462 with one home run and five strikeouts to two walks.

7-214: SS Nick Goodwin, Kansas State {video}
Slot value: $238,700. Signing bonus: $236,200 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #136. MLB Pipeline: #163. Baseball America: #138. Prospects Live: #107.
The Blue Jays again found nice value in Nick Goodwin, a shortstop who may lack a standout tool but does a lot of things well. He is a three year performer at Kansas State and put up his best season yet in 2023, slashing .285/.394/.511 with 12 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 37/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games. Goodwin shows average raw power in the box that plays well in games because of his quick right handed swing and natural ability to get loft under the ball, regularly finding barrels to all fields. He also cut his strikeout rate significantly in 2023, from 23.1% as a sophomore to 13.5% as a junior, as he began to cut down on the chases and started making more consistent contact. Interestingly, his career numbers at Kansas State (.273/.368/.505 with similar slash lines all three seasons) may paint the picture of a steady hitter, but he's actually been more inconsistent than you might think. He turned heads on the Cape last summer by slashing .267/.354/.502 against elite pitching, then after coming out of the gate hot in 2023, he slumped hard in Big 12 play with a .204/.284/.387 line and a strikeout rate closer to 20%. It will be interesting what kind of middle ground his bat finds in pro ball and whether his true ability against advanced pitching was showcased on the Cape or in Big 12 play. Meanwhile, he's a solid athlete with a shot to stick at shortstop, but he's a fringy runner that may get pushed off by a more explosive defender. He has enough arm to handle third base and enough range to handle second base, which would make him a strong utility type if he doesn't hit enough to play every day. Pushed straight to Low A Dunedin, he's off to a bit of a slow start slashing .185/.267/.222 with five strikeouts to two walks through seven games.

9-274: 2B Sam Shaw, TNXL Academy [FL] {video}
Slot value: $175,900. Signing bonus: $282,500 ($106,600 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #211.
The Blue Jays nabbed their second Canadian here in Sam Shaw, a product of Lambrick Park Secondary School in Victoria, British Columbia who went down to TNXL Academy in Florida to get more exposure. Listed at 5'10", 180 pounds, he is not a big kid but takes big hacks from the left side and has made a ton of contact against advanced pitching. With his athleticism and bat speed, it's easy to see him tacking on some strength and getting to perhaps fringe average power to go with at least an average, perhaps an above average hit tool down the line. With some speed and the ability to bounce around the dirt, he projects to stick at second base in the long run. He's a gritty player that plays with a lot of energy, but he'll need to learn to channel it a bit better as he gets faced with failure (as does every kid) more often in pro ball. Previously committed to Xavier, he signed for late sixth round money here in the ninth round. He has two hits in six at bats in the Florida Complex League to begin his pro career.

15-454: RHP Kelena Sauer, San Diego State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
The Blue Jays picked up a funky reliever in Kelena Sauer. He's spent three years in the San Diego State bullpen, putting up his best season in 2023 with a 4.35 ERA and a 35/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 31 innings as the Aztec closer. Coming from a sidearm slot, he sits in the low to mid 90s with his fastball and gets flat plane from that low release point. He works in a sweeping slider that dives across the plate, and while he doesn't throw it as much, his changeup has diving action away from left handed hitters. His command has improved considerably during his time in San Diego, now looking average as he's gotten more consistent with his release point. The 6'3" righty has additional funk in his delivery with his front leg drive, as he drops the leg perfectly straight down before changing directions at the last second and extending towards the plate, so his foot follows an "L" path towards the plate. That's not necessarily a problem because it works for him, it's just different. Sauer will likely remain a reliever going forward, and his age is a big bonus as he doesn't turn 21 until September. Pushed straight to Low A Dunedin with Nick Goodwin, he's allowed one run on three hits and one walk across three innings so far, striking out five.

Wednesday, August 3, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: Toronto Blue Jays

Full list of draftees

I have to imagine the Blue Jays are very happy with their draft class. They were often tied to South Carolina prep infielder Tucker Toman in the first round, but instead picked up arguably the best left handed pitcher in the class and still got Toman two picks later with a huge over slot bonus. This class features numerous hitters with a strong combination of plate discipline and batted ball data that could break out with tweaks to their approaches. Meanwhile, many of the pitchers in this class bring unique skill sets to the table, making this a draft with sneaky upside overall.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here

1-23: LHP Brandon Barriera, American Heritage HS [FL]. My rank: #17.
Slot value: $3.08 million. Signing bonus: $3.60 million ($523,100 above slot value).
The Blue Jays started it off with one of the best pitchers in the entire class, and they got him here in the back third of the first round. Brandon Barriera is an electric lefty out of South Florida with huge upside, one you absolutely want on your side. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can get up to 98 with cross body angle and average life, but his best pitch is a plus slider with late, bat missing bite. Barriera also has good feel for his changeup and will work that into his repertoire more frequently as a pro, giving him a very loud three pitch mix. He stands a skinny 6'2" and does not throw with much effort, showing impressive athleticism on the mound with a quick left arm. He pounds the strike zone and loves to go right after hitters, pitching with a chip on his shoulder and giving scouts reason to laud his competitive demeanor on the mound. Together, it's a really fun profile that could move relatively quickly for a high school pitcher, which does admittedly set the bar low, and he could get an especially quick start to his pro career because he intentionally shut down his senior season at American Heritage High School early to prepare for the draft. Originally committed to Vanderbilt, it took a large over slot bonus to keep him away from campus.

2-60: SS Josh Kasevich, Oregon. My rank: #72.
Slot value: $1.22 million. Signing bonus: $1 million ($216,700 below slot value).
Toronto may have saved some money in the second round, but they still managed to pick up a very interesting player in Josh Kasevich. Kasevich has been an extremely steady contributor for Oregon over the past two seasons, slashing a combined .317/.389/.445 with eleven home runs and a 40/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games. He's extremely disciplined in the box and makes a ton of contact, employing an all fields, line drive approach that led to a minuscule 5.8% strikeout rate in 2022. It's a plus pure hit tool that never produced a ton of extra impact beyond a barrage of singles in Eugene, with 34 extra base hits over the past two seasons in those 116 games. However, the San Francisco Bay Area native has some interesting traits under the surface, with quick hands and a lean, 6'2" frame that regularly produce high exit velocities and can help him run into some power when he turns on one. Scouts have wanted to see Kasevich try to turn on and lift more balls in 2022, which he did a bit at the outset of the season, but he reverted back to his typical contact-oriented ways as the season wore on. Given the plus bat to ball skills and feel for the barrel, the Blue Jays could try to get him back on that path of trying to do more damage at once without sacrificing much in the way of on-base percentage, even if it's not really his game for now. It will be interesting to see which direction he develops and what kind of player he becomes, but even now the offensive package is very good as a high average, high on-base guy. The bat looks even better considering his defense, as he brings very strong instincts and body control to the shortstop position despite lacking explosive speed. If he moves off shortstop eventually, he could be a plus defender at second or third base.

2C-77: SS Tucker Toman, Hammond HS [SC]. My rank: #42.
Slot value: $846,900. Signing bonus: $2 million ($1.15 million above slot value).
The Blue Jays were heavily linked to Tucker Toman at pick #23, but ultimately could not pass up a shot at one of the best arms in the class in Brandon Barriera. Toman was surprisingly still available when they picked again at #60, but they knew they had to go more than half a million dollars above slot value to wrangle Barriera so they saved some money with Josh Kasevich. Though they were still about $300,000 in the hole when their third pick rolled around at #77, the opportunity to snag one of their favorite prep bats here was too much to pass up and they wound up handing him top 40 money to keep him from an LSU commitment. Toman is coming off a big senior season in which he showed off his above average power very consistently in games, pushing himself up boards in the process. A switch hitter, he takes big, powerful hacks from both sides of the plate with strong barrel accuracy that enables him to lift the ball with authority, though his left handed swing is a bit smoother and more explosive than his right handed swing. The Columbia, South Carolina native has a good eye at the plate as well, though he can get a little pull happy at times, but overall takes good at bats. It's a strong all around offensive profile that could wind up with above average power and above average hit in time, translating to 20-25 home runs a year with strong on-base percentages at peak. Drafted as a shortstop, he's more strong than quick and will fit better in a corner, with third base the best case scenario but possibly first base or a corner outfield spot. That puts pressure on the bat, which shouldn't be a problem.

2C-78: 2B Cade Doughty, Louisiana State. My rank: #61.
Slot value: $833,600. Signing bonus: $833,600.
Cade Doughty is a really interesting pick here, one with some sneaky upside. He's been well known to area scouts for a long time, having earned serious draft interest as a Louisiana high schooler before matriculating to LSU. He continually raised his stock in Baton Rouge, and midway through the 2022 season he was looking like a first rounder. However, an extended slump from mid April to mid May dented his stock, and a crowded field of college bats in the back of the first round/second round range pushed him further down boards. The final result was a .298/.393/.567 slash line with 15 home runs and a 49/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, a line salvaged by a strong showing at the Hattiesburg Super Regional. Doughty is a very professional hitter that likes to swing the bat, but still makes a ton of hard contact with an all-fields approach. He's not a slugger, but there's at least average raw power in the tank and it plays to all fields, so when he's going right, he's an extremely valuable all-around hitter. The Baton Rouge-area product got away from his approach a bit in 2022 and may have swung for the fences a bit too much, so his contact rates dropped and his already aggressive approach began to play down. Pessimists see a guy with average power and average hit, but the Blue Jays likely believe in that above average hit, above average power guy that Doughty was for much of his time with LSU. Defensively, he's seen time at both second and third base (more second in 2022), showing well at both with solid if unspectacular arm strength and range. If he can get back to using the whole field and trusting his power to come naturally, he'll be a very productive hitter in Toronto for a long time.

3-98: OF Alan Roden, Creighton. My rank: #140.
Slot value: $623,500. Signing bonus: $497,500 ($126,000 below slot value).
Toronto saved a little more money here with one of the more interesting senior signs in the class. Alan Roden will go from the Bluejays of Creighton to the Blue Jays of Toronto, coming off a massive senior season in Omaha in which he slashed .387/.492/.598 with four home runs and an 8/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games. Yep, you read that right, that's an OBP near .500 with just eight strikeouts the entire season, good for the lowest strikeout rate (3.3%) of any player on my draft board. He's an old school hitter that sets up in a crouch, keeping his eyes on plane with the baseball and picking it up extremely well out of the pitcher's hand. If it's high, he'll get his hands up to hit and drive it, and if it's low, he'll drop down and go with it. He didn't hit for much power this year playing in pitcher-friendly Charles Schwab Field, home of the College World Series, instead employing a contact-oriented, line drive approach that regularly sent the ball deep into the gaps for 25 doubles and two triples this year. However, much like Josh Kasevich a round earlier, there is some sneaky power here because Roden regularly posts high exit velocities due to finding the barrel so frequently. As a senior sign that already turned 22 before the season started, I'm not sure how much loft you're going to add to the swing especially given his setup and approach, so Kasevich's power may be more attainable. The Madison, Wisconsin-area native also did not hit for much impact in the Cape Cod League this summer leading up to the draft (.212/.373/.288), though he did keep his strikeout rate down at a very strong 8.4% while walking 10.8% of the time against elite pitching. Drafted as an outfielder, he played a lot of first base at Creighton and won't provide much value on that side of the ball, likely landing in left field long term. Roden should move quickly through the minors with an extremely advanced bat and could be one of the first hitters to reach the majors from this class, with a likely platoon projection.

5-158: LHP Mason Fluharty, Liberty. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $347,000. Signing bonus: $222,500 ($124,500 below slot value).
You don't see many baseball players from Slower Lower Delaware, but when you do, they usually come out of Cape Henlopen High School in Lewes. Mason Fluharty teamed with future UVA stars Zack and Jake Gelof for the Vikings, and like the Gelof brothers, he came to the state of Virginia for college. In 2022 he was very strong out of the Liberty bullpen with a 2.84 ERA and an 83/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 50.2 innings. It's one of the more unorthodox profiles in the class, as his narrow arsenal really operates more on a spectrum rather than as individual pitches. Working with a closed off delivery from the extreme first base side of the rubber, he puts about as much angle on his pitches as you can possibly get while also hiding the ball really well especially from right handed hitters. From there, he cuts his "pitch" to give it even more glove side movement in addition to the angle already on it. That "pitch" fluctuates between cut fastball and slider traits depending on what he needs, getting into the low 90's when he wants to sacrifice movement for velocity and but showing a ton of sweep when it's thrown more as a traditional slider. There is an old cartoon about a pitcher from a hundred years ago that I believe was referencing Grover Cleveland Alexander, and it's killing me that I can't find it, in which a slider just keeps sweeping and sweeping until it literally chases the batter out of the batter's box back to the dugout. That's what Fluharty's slider is like with its combination of angle and sweep. The 6'2" lefty is a good strike thrower to boot, but given the two pitch (one malleable pitch?) profile, he's probably destined for the bullpen in pro ball. The Blue Jays may want to help him add a changeup or at least another variation of his fastball that can run to the arm side and keep hitters from sitting on his cutter and slider, and overall I'm curious to see how this works out against more advanced hitters.

7-218: 1B Peyton Williams, Iowa. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $210,500. Signing bonus: $197,500 ($13,000 below slot value).
Toronto picked up a big power bat in the seventh round. Peyton Williams has gotten better and better every year at Iowa, culminating in a huge junior season where he slashed .335/.464/.622 with 13 home runs and an even 35/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. He's a very big guy at a listed 6'5", 255 pounds, and he channels that strength into an extremely powerful left handed hack that can really blast the ball. Williams likes to use the whole field and doesn't loft the ball as often as perhaps he should, but that may be a relatively easy fix in pro ball as the Blue Jays tinker with his approach to get him to turn on it more. He also does not strike out much with a disciplined approach at the plate, giving him a very well rounded profile in the box that should move relatively quickly. The Des Moines-area native is very limited defensively as you can imagine by his size, with below average speed that will really only play at first base. If Williams can learn to turn on the ball more consistently without sacrificing contact, he could crack it as a power hitting first baseman in the mold of a left handed C.J. Cron at his ceiling.

9-278: RHP Devereaux Harrison, Long Beach State. My rank: #171.
Slot value: $158,600. Signing bonus: $122,500 ($36,100 below slot value).
I'm very interested in this pick. Devereaux Harrison was very good over his first two years at Long Beach State, where he put up a 1.50 ERA and a 60/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 combined innings, but he took a big step back in 2022 with a 6.15 ERA and a 32/17 strikeout to walk ratio in 33.2 innings mostly out of the Dirtbag bullpen. A 20.8% strikeout rate out of the bullpen isn't exactly what you look for in a pro prospect especially when it's combined with a 6.15 ERA, a 1.57 WHIP, and an 11% walk rate, but there are some interesting traits underneath. Harrison sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up into the mid 90's, but when he's going right, the pitch plays up with huge ride up in the zone. He flashes an above average slider at his best, but it's very inconsistent in its shape and velocity and can often look below average. There's a changeup in there, but it's not one of his main weapons. Always a bit iffy on the command, the Northern California native really struggled in that regard in 2022 and too often would fall behind in the count and groove pitches that got crushed. The Blue Jays will look to work off that explosive fastball and get him much more consistent with his slider, but perhaps the biggest asset available to them will be his athleticism. The 6' righty gets down the mound extremely well with a flexible, explosive lower half, and personally I think that combined with the life on his pitches is reason enough to take a shot on him and see what you can do. It's almost certainly a bullpen profile going forward given his smaller frame, long arm action, and general inconsistency, but it could be a very good one if the Blue Jays do this right.

18-548: LHP Jérémy Pilon, Ecole Secondaire de Montagne HS [QC]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
There isn't much information out there about Jérémy Pilon, but I want to give him his due as a Canadian drafted by the Blue Jays. Pilon grew up in Salaberry-de-Valleyfield on Grand Ile, about thirty miles southwest of Montreal, and played at Ecole Secondaire de Montagne which it looks like is in the northeastern Montreal suburb of Bucherville. A member of Team Canada, he was the youngest player in the entire draft at just 16 years old, not even turning 17 until September. The 6' lefty sits around 90 with his high spin fastball and drops in a curveball with impressive depth as well as a changeup, leaning back in his delivery a bit like Tim Lincecum. Pilon completed high school not one but two years early, which is why he's getting drafted at such a young age, and to this point I actually don't believe he's committed to play anywhere in college yet. It looks like he'll continue working with Team Canada and with the Académie de Baseball du Canada, where he'll look to fill out a bit and get stronger before hopefully pushing himself into the top five rounds, whether that be again next year or in a few years after college ball.

20-608: OF Gregory Pace, Edison HS [MI]. My rank: #173.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
As with Jérémy Pilon, Gregory Pace did not sign here, but I do know a lot more about him. In fact, I'm very intrigued by Pace's upside. A product of Detroit Edison Public School Academy in inner-city Detroit, he's an exceptional athlete with huge upside if developed right. For now, he stands out for plus-plus speed that makes him a weapon in center field and on the basepaths, but he's more than a speedster. He comes with an extremely projectable 6'3" frame with a ton of twitchy strength, and he was still just 17 years old on draft day to boot. As Pace fills out, he'll almost certainly start to tap more power from the right side, where he shows quick hands and a line drive approach. He hasn't performed well against high-octane stuff and his swing can get grooved, so the hit tool will need just as much refinement as the power will, and there is a lot of work to be done. In addition to his blazing speed, Pace has also touched 90 on the mound, so the defensive outlook already has a very high floor. I believe given his youth, frame, and cold weather background, he'll become the next great outfielder to come out of that University of Michigan program that has recently churned out Clark Elliott, Jordan Nwogu, Jordan Brewer, and Jesse Franklin. He may not make an impact right away as a freshman, but look out come 2024 and 2025.

Tuesday, August 3, 2021

2021 MLB Draft Review: Toronto Blue Jays

Full list of draftees

The Blue Jays went pitching-heavy this year, selecting arms with their first five picks and nine of their first ten. Even though they did not have a second round pick due to signing George Springer, they managed to make a few picks that I really liked, most notably their first pick in Gunnar Hoglund, who in my opinion was one of the top arms in the entire class. Toronto did select two Canadians in 14th and 16th rounds, though Abbotsford native Micah Bucknam did not sign and will instead attend Washington for school.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-19: RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi. My rank: #12.
I'm a huge fan of this pick, especially considering they got him below slot. Gunnar Hoglund has been on prospect radars for a while, and his ability to command a high velocity fastball got him drafted 36th overall by the Pirates, but he did not sign. Hoglund settled in as one of the best strikethrowers in the SEC over the next two seasons, walking just 18 batters in 91.1 innings as a 19-20 year old by pulling back a bit on his velocity. I went to his first start of the 2021 season against Texas Tech (which I wrote about at length here), and everything changed. After sitting 88-92 as an underclassman, he came out firing and touched 96 in the first inning, holding 90+ velocity for the entire start and in fact, for the entire season. That increased velocity came from the same simple, easy delivery he's always shown, and he maintained plus command throughout the season. That led to a 2.87 ERA and a 96/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 62.2 innings. The 6'4" righty also tightened up his slider this year, bumping it into the mid to upper 80's and earning some plus grades at his best, and also took a big step forward with a changeup that looks like an above average pitch as well. All of that had him trending towards the top ten picks, and in fact he ranked as high as eighth on my midseason lists, but unfortunately he went down with Tommy John surgery in May. While that's obviously a crushing blow, I'm honestly not too worried. Nowadays, it seems like almost everybody is getting TJ at some point anyways, and while that still doesn't make it a good thing, at least it's happening now rather than in pro ball when he's knocking on the door to the majors. Hoglund is also so advanced in so many facets of pitching that once he's healthy again, even though he'll be 22 and a half years old, he should be able to move quickly and still reach the majors in a reasonable timeframe. If his stuff and command come all the way back, I see a pretty high floor as a back-end starter and a more likely outcome as a #3 guy. The Tampa-area native signed for $3.25 million, which was about $110,000 below slot value.

3-91: LHP Ricky Tiedemann, Golden West JC [CA]. My rank: #134.
Ricky Tiedemann was eligible last year and ranked 75th on my list, and after teams would not reach his signing bonus demands, he switched his commitment from San Diego State to Long Beach City College to be eligible for the draft this year. When LBCC cancelled its baseball season due to COVID fears, he transferred quickly to Golden West JC and put up a 3.55 ERA and a 60/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 innings. His fastball has ticked up slightly into the low 90's, topping out around 93-94 at its best, while his slider has gotten more consistent and looks like an average pitch. His changeup remains his main weapon, coming in with great fade from his low three quarters arm slot and earning some plus grades. The 6'4" lefty is generally around the zone, but he struggles to command within it and his stuff isn't quite crisp enough to avoid getting hit hard when he leaves pitches over the plate. His proponents will point to the projection in his frame and the looseness of his delivery that will allow him to add velocity, while his detractors will wonder if he'll ever miss enough bats to be more than a back-end starter or a reliever. The Blue Jays are likely in that first camp, and the fact that he's extremely young for a college freshman (still 18 for a few more weeks) should help him continue to add power to his stuff. The southern California native signed for $644,800, which was $2,500 below slot value.

4-121: RHP Chad Dallas, Tennessee. My rank: #159.
Chad Dallas is a relatively safe pick in the fourth round, albeit one without a ton of upside. He began his career at Panola JC, then followed the Alerick Soularie path from the Texas JUCO ranks to Tennessee. After making a strong impression as a sophomore in 2020 (2.53 ERA, 21/6 K/BB), he was the Volunteers' most consistent starter this year and finished with a 4.19 ERA and a 122/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings, facing a tough schedule with a hitter-friendly home park. "Cheese" Dallas attacks hitters with a low 90's fastball that has reached as high as 97 in the past, adding in a full set of secondaries with an above average slider, an average curve, and a seldom-used changeup. The 5'11" righty is a bit undersized, but his competitiveness and above average command enable him to power through lineups and pitch deep into ballgames. It looks like a high probability back-end starter, or he could wind up in the bullpen with his fastball/slider combination. It does help that he's relatively young for the class and only turned 21 in June. The southeast Texas native signed for $497,500, which was $23,800 above slot value.

5-152: RHP Irv Carter, Calvary Christian HS [FL]. My rank: #74.
This is another pick I really like for the Blue Jays. Irv Carter may have been the third player drafted off his own high school team, but in the fifth round, I think he represents the best value. Carter has a big right arm that fires fastballs in the low 90's and has been clocked up to 94, but most evaluators agree that there is plenty more in the tank. He attacks hitters with a hard, above average slider that can show plus bite at its best, and he's shown relatively advanced feel for his changeup as well, though the latter needs to gain more consistency. A fringy curveball is currently a fourth pitch The 6'4" righty is very animated on the mound, breaking out numerous different deliveries to mess with hitters' timing. His primary delivery features a short pause right before foot strike, but sometimes he'll add an extra tap in his windup, shimmy at the top, or add a second leg lift. That partly contributes to fringy command, as changing up his lower half mechanics pre-pitch often leads to inconsistent lower half mechanics mid-delivery, and his upper body sometimes doesn't catch up while his lower half is off doing its thing. The Blue Jays will want to smooth that out and get him consistent with a single, normal delivery, then perhaps let him go back to changing things up once he's comfortably repeating his mechanics. There is a ton of natural talent here, from the strong frame to the excellent feel to spin the baseball, and Toronto is really buying into the upside. A Miami commit, the south Florida native instead signed for $850,000, which was $499,700 above slot value.

6-182: RHP Hayden Juenger, Missouri State. Unranked.
The Blue Jays see a fast-moving reliever in Hayden Juenger, who served as Missouri State's closer this year and put up a 3.86 ERA and a 31/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 innings. There's not a ton of video available on him, but the 6' righty does have a smaller frame and an uptempo delivery that will likely keep him in the bullpen. He can bring it with a mid 90's fastball that serves as his primary weapon, also keeping hitters off balance with a slider and a changeup. Juenger is extremely young for the class and will only turn 21 shortly after this review is published, so Toronto will have that much extra time to develop his fresh arm in their system. College relievers do not have a great track record early in the draft, but the St. Louis-area native's youth and arm strength still intrigue the Blue Jays here, where they feel they're deep enough into the draft to go after an electric arm. He signed for $197,500, which was $70,700 below slot value.

12-362: 3B Riley Tirotta, Dayton. Unranked.
Riley Tirotta is an interesting one, and someone who was on my radar before the draft but who I just didn't get around to. A fourth year player, had he been willing to accept a lower signing bonus, he probably could have gone in the top six or seven rounds given that he was a favorite among Midwest area scouts. Tirotta was inconsistent over his first three years at Dayton but put it all together in 2021, slashing .337/.450/.696 with 16 home runs and a 36/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games. The South Bend, Indiana native employs a big right handed uppercut that helps him tap his above average power very consistently in games, and he cut his strikeout rate to 16.2% during his breakout this year. Throw in plus speed that has enabled him to steal 43 bases in 162 career games, and you have someone who can impact the game in a lot of ways. The catch is that most of his damage has come against so-so A-10 pitching, and he did struggle in the Cape Cod League back in 2019. The debate rages as to whether he's a legitimate impact hitter that's simply unproven against better pitching, or if he's really an organizational depth guy who just beat up on a weaker schedule. The Cape numbers my point to the latter, but the Blue Jays will counter that it was a 19 game sample two years ago. Defensively, he has the speed to play the infield, but it doesn't necessarily translate out there and he could be a candidate to move to the outfield if third base doesn't work out. Set to turn 23 in August, he's on the older side, and he signed for $125,000.

14-422: 3B Damiano Palmegiani, Southern Nevada JC. Unranked.
The Blue Jays selected two Canadians this year, but only one signed. Damiano Palmegiani grew up in Surrey in the Vancouver area, then played his high school ball at the Vauxhall Academy boarding school in rural southern Alberta. After playing his freshman year at Cal State Northridge, he transferred to the College of Southern Nevada this year and absolutely mashed, slashing .389/.532/1.360 with 26 home runs and a 38/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. He generates big raw power from the right side, a product of the strength in his 6'1" frame and the leverage he creates with a strong base and kinetic chain. There's a slight hitch in his swing that leads to a slightly longer path to the baseball, which did not hurt him in the slightest this year but could be an issue in pro ball. While his 13.4% strikeout rate was low against junior college competition, the arms out west aren't quite as strong as the ones in Texas or Florida and certainly not as tough as an SEC or Pac-12 schedule. He did hit .304/.403/.482 with a 17/8 strikeout to walk ratio against better pitching in the MLB Draft League, but struck out 25.8% of the time. Defensively, he's going to need a lot of work if he wants to stick at third base, with the outfield a more likely outcome. He's an average runner so left field is probably where he ends up, where his bat will have to carry him. Palmegiani signed for $157,500, of which $32,500 counts against the bonus pool.

17-512: LHP Cooper Benson, Arizona State. Unranked.
Arizona State was excited to get Cooper Benson to campus, but he'll be leaving Tempe with only 27 innings under his belt. After looking strong in twenty innings as a freshman, he left his second start with an injury and ultimately went down with Tommy John surgery. It's hard to have looked better than he did, however, tossing seven shutout innings between the two starts while allowing just two hits and no walks while striking out ten of the 23 Sacramento State and Hawaii batters he faced. Benson has a fastball around 90 and adds an average curve and an above average changeup that plays very well off his fastball. He curls his arm behind his back in his delivery, creating nice deception and making it hard to pick it up out of his hand. The San Luis Obispo, California native filled up the strike zone this year, though it's always a question how that will hold up once he gets back from surgery, especially considering he was just a sophomore and only turned 21 the day this was published. The Blue Jays are buying into that hot start to the season and hoping they uncovered a gem that was on his way to a breakout. The 6' lefty signed for $125,000.

Wednesday, July 15, 2020

2020 Draft Review: Toronto Blue Jays

1-5: SS Austin Martin, Vanderbilt
2-42: RHP CJ Van Eyk, Florida State
3-77: RHP Trent Palmer, Jacksonville
4-106: RHP Nick Frasso, Loyola Marymount
5-136: OF Zach Britton, Louisville

I love this Blue Jays draft class, and I think they did it exactly right. There was no way they expected Austin Martin to still be available halfway through the top ten picks, but because the Orioles and Marlins went in an unexpected direction, that meant Martin was there for the taking. Sure, he required the second highest bonus in the draft and surely threw the Jays' draft plans out the window, but they sure aren't complaining. They smartly didn't shy away from giving Martin the big bucks, then even went slightly over slot on second rounder CJ Van Eyk and Trent Palmer as well. That's aggressive, and I like it. In the end, they over spent their bonus pool by 5%, the maximum you can spend without losing a draft pick, and it netted them a great class. I think they were very smart to do so. Yesterday, I wrote about the Mariners being stingy with their class, and they should have taken a note from what the Jays did. I guess that philosophy is why the Blue Jays' system is so much better than the Mariners', but hey, Seattle saved a few bucks I guess.
Full index of team reviews here.

1-5: SS Austin Martin, Vanderbilt (my rank: 2)
Debate raged over who the Tigers should take first overall, Austin Martin or Spencer Torkelson, but while Torkelson's prodigious bat earned him the spot, it's pretty clear that Martin is the best all-around player in the draft class. The Jacksonville native is a career .368/.474/.532 hitter with 14 home runs, 43 stolen bases, and an 82/85 strikeout to walk ratio over 140 games at Vanderbilt, facing some of the toughest pitching in college baseball. Those numbers were as high as .377/.507/.660 in 2020, as Martin continued his ruthless assault on college pitching. He has elite barrel to ball skills that enable him to drive the ball with authority around the park at will, racking up tons of extra base hits (39 doubles and four triples in addition to his 14 home runs). A very patient hitter, he also draws plenty of walks which helped him post on-base percentages of .452, .486, and .507 from his freshman to junior seasons, and his elite strike zone management enabled him to strike out just twice in 16 games this year. The power is about average right now, but I wouldn't rule out above average power in the future, because he reminds me a lot of Alex Bregman at the same stage of his career. Guys who have that elite combination of zone control and barrel control inevitably run into more home runs than you'd expect, and I could see Martin as a 20-25 home run guy in addition to one who posts .400+ on-base percentages. With good speed to boot, he's the whole package offensively. Defensively, there were already questions as to whether he could stick at shortstop, but in a Blue Jays system that's absolutely loaded with infield talent, that seems less likely. He hadn't been seen much at shortstop in deference to now-Pirates prospect Ethan Paul, and this year he's bounced around the field for Vanderbilt as well. The coaching staff there was never sold on his feel for the infield, even if he is a natural athlete with speed and strength, so he could end up at third base with a little refinement for the Blue Jays or center field if they want to go the path of least resistance. No matter where he ends up defensively, he should be a net-positive so long as it isn't shortstop, and the bat will play anywhere regardless. I'm really excited to see what he does in pro ball. Martin's $7 million signing bonus was about $820,000 above slot, but the Jays did it and they didn't shy away from their later picks. Pre-draft profile here.

2-42: RHP CJ Van Eyk, Florida State (my rank: 42)
CJ Van Eyk was a well-known draft prospect coming out of high school in the Tampa suburbs in 2017, but he wound up at Florida State and steadily built his stock up with a very impressive career in Tallahassee: 18-5, 3.21 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 225/83 K/BB in 176.2 innings. Van Eyk is the kind of pitcher who could have easily snuck into the back of the first round in most drafts, but this draft was so deep in college pitching that he fell to the Blue Jays in the second round. That's not to say that he should have gone higher, since the pitchers ahead of him really were legitimate arms, but it does mean the Jays can be really excited about this kind of name being available as a result. He leads off with a solid fastball in the low 90's that can reach up to 95, but his best pitch is a plus 12-6 curveball that he has tremendous feel for. Van Eyk also throws a slider and a changeup, though the fastball and curveball are his main pitches. His command is relatively inconsistent, but although it grades as clearly below average, it's not a huge red flag. He's generally at least around the zone and shows good feel for moving his curveball around the plate, so while pro hitters will be able to lay off his close misses for the most part, a few tweaks should get him up to average command. The 6'1" righty can make that work, because he gets a little bit of deception on his pitches as well, coming across his body to put tough angle on the ball. So long as he makes the necessary strides with his command, we're probably looking at a very solid #3 starter type, and even if his command remains below average, there's a good chance he can still crack it as a back-end starter. He signed for $1.8 million, which was about $30,000 above slot. Pre-draft profile here.

3-77: RHP Trent Palmer, Jacksonville (my rank: 143)
This marks a third straight pick with ties to the state of Florida. Austin Martin grew up in Jacksonville but left for school, CJ Van Eyk grew up in Tampa and stayed in state, and finally, Trent Palmer grew up in the Minneapolis area but headed way down south to Jacksonville for college. Personally, I'm not a huge fan of this pick, especially considering it was an over slot signing, but I see why the Blue Jays like him. Palmer is a 6'1" righty who had been solid, if unspectacular, over his first two seasons at Jacksonville, but he was very good on the Cape (1.21 ERA, 26/9 K/BB in 22.1 IP) then broke out in 2020 with a 1.30 ERA, a 0.61 WHIP, and a 41/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.2 innings. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, topping out around 96, and he adds a solid slider, curve, and changeup to go with it. Everything comes from an extremely loose arm that has enabled him to transition to starting very well, and his command has steadily improved throughout his college career, now playing close to average. He's a stockier guy who doesn't figure to add a ton of velocity, but he has enough to succeed right now and will just have to focus on sharpening his secondary pitches a little. They're pretty good right now, given his average-ish command, you'd probably want them to be a little crisper and miss more bats. If he can continue the trend he's on with his command and get to solid average or slightly above, though, he could fit in as a #4 starter. Otherwise, he could fit well in a bullpen role, where his stuff would likely tick up. Palmer signed for $847,500, which was about $41,900 above slot value.

4-106: RHP Nick Frasso, Loyola Marymount (my rank: 96)
There are a lot of question marks with Frasso, but the upside here is really exciting. He's a lanky 6'5" righty that looks uncoordinated out there on the field, but he brings lots of athleticism regardless. A standout high school basketball player in the Los Angeles suburbs, Frasso has been a steady performer at Loyola Marymount with a career 2.80 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 158/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.1 innings. He brings the heat with a low to mid 90's fastball that he can run up to 97, but the pitch plays way up because his long arms enable him to release the baseball practically right in front of the hitter's face. There is also some funk to his delivery and he puts high spin rates on the ball, meaning that its above average velocity plays more as a true plus pitch. For now, that's what the Blue Jays are buying, hoping they can develop the rest of his arsenal. His slider is his best secondary pitch, looking average overall but playing well off his fastball when he tunnels them together, and his changeup is definitely his third pitch. Despite his gangly stature and funky, jerky delivery, he's very coordinated and fills up the strike zone consistently. Now, he only threw 8.2 innings in 2020 because he missed time with forearm problems, and we're just going to have to see how that plays out. If he comes back healthy, there is some real upside. With the easy plus fastball and above average command, all he really needs to do is sharpen his secondary pitches a little bit to become a legitimate impact starter, should he prove durable enough to handle that role. If durability remains a concern or if the changeup never really comes along, he would fit great in the bullpen, so aside from injuries, I see a relatively high floor as well as some ceiling on top of it. I'm very interested to see where he goes in pro ball and I really hope he gets/stays healthy. Frasso signed for $459,000, which was $90,000 below slot value. Pre-draft profile here.

5-136: OF Zach Britton, Louisville (unranked)
This was the Blue Jays' main money saver to afford Austin Martin. Britton, of no relation to Yankees reliever Zack Britton, grew up in southeastern Indiana about 40 miles outside of Cincinnati, and he has steadily improved during his career at Louisville. He was off to a hot start in 2020, hitting .322/.446/.542 with a 12/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games, and that came on the heels of a solid run through the Cape Cod League. An average athlete at 6'1", he deploys his strength well in his whippy swing and shows solid average power while making very consistent contact. Usually, that power plays more into line drives than home runs in games, though he did hit five home runs on the Cape over the summer. The bat looks pretty interesting and should carry him to the big leagues, though he's an average defender in left field so the bat will be the sole thing pushing him up. If he can unlock a little bit more power, I could see him working his way into a starting role, though he's more likely to end up as a fourth outfielder in the long run. His $97,500 signing bonus was $312,600 below slot value.

Undrafted: IF/OF Zac Cook, Texas-Arlington (unranked)
Cook has been somewhat of a jack of all trades for the Mavericks over four years at UT Arlington, slashing .294/.395/.396 with seven home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 111/75 strikeout to walk ratio over 165 games. The Dallas-Fort Worth-area native was at his best in 2020, when he hit .321/.500/.623 with four home runs and a 13/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 16 games. At 6'1", he has been tapping into more of his raw power while continuing to make plenty of contact, showing a bat that should play as average all around in pro ball. He's played pretty much everywhere in the field at UTA, and will likely continue to be utilized in a super utility role in pro ball. Cook is also a great student, one that got into Dartmouth and Cornell but wanted to play baseball at UTA and is currently halfway through an MBA.

Undrafted: SS Harrison Ray, Vanderbilt (unranked)
Ray has been a mainstay in the Vanderbilt lineup for four years, though he's been more solid than flashy with a .259/.343/.378 slash line, five home runs, 37 stolen bases, and a 137/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 158 games. Though he only stands 5'11", he packs some punch as a hitter that usually plays as gap to gap power, and he's a good runner that can make the most of that. He's a pretty aggressive hitter that picks up his fair share of strikeouts, which has been the case throughout his career and might have limited his production a little bit. He's probably more of a second baseman than a shortstop and fits best as a utility infielder who can do a little bit of everything despite not having a standout ability.