1-5: SS Austin Martin, Vanderbilt
2-42: RHP CJ Van Eyk, Florida State
3-77: RHP Trent Palmer, Jacksonville
4-106: RHP Nick Frasso, Loyola Marymount
5-136: OF Zach Britton, Louisville
I love this Blue Jays draft class, and I think they did it exactly right. There was no way they expected Austin Martin to still be available halfway through the top ten picks, but because the Orioles and Marlins went in an unexpected direction, that meant Martin was there for the taking. Sure, he required the second highest bonus in the draft and surely threw the Jays' draft plans out the window, but they sure aren't complaining. They smartly didn't shy away from giving Martin the big bucks, then even went slightly over slot on second rounder CJ Van Eyk and Trent Palmer as well. That's aggressive, and I like it. In the end, they over spent their bonus pool by 5%, the maximum you can spend without losing a draft pick, and it netted them a great class. I think they were very smart to do so. Yesterday, I wrote about the Mariners being stingy with their class, and they should have taken a note from what the Jays did. I guess that philosophy is why the Blue Jays' system is so much better than the Mariners', but hey, Seattle saved a few bucks I guess.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-5: SS Austin Martin, Vanderbilt (my rank: 2)
Debate raged over who the Tigers should take first overall, Austin Martin or Spencer Torkelson, but while Torkelson's prodigious bat earned him the spot, it's pretty clear that Martin is the best all-around player in the draft class. The Jacksonville native is a career .368/.474/.532 hitter with 14 home runs, 43 stolen bases, and an 82/85 strikeout to walk ratio over 140 games at Vanderbilt, facing some of the toughest pitching in college baseball. Those numbers were as high as .377/.507/.660 in 2020, as Martin continued his ruthless assault on college pitching. He has elite barrel to ball skills that enable him to drive the ball with authority around the park at will, racking up tons of extra base hits (39 doubles and four triples in addition to his 14 home runs). A very patient hitter, he also draws plenty of walks which helped him post on-base percentages of .452, .486, and .507 from his freshman to junior seasons, and his elite strike zone management enabled him to strike out just twice in 16 games this year. The power is about average right now, but I wouldn't rule out above average power in the future, because he reminds me a lot of Alex Bregman at the same stage of his career. Guys who have that elite combination of zone control and barrel control inevitably run into more home runs than you'd expect, and I could see Martin as a 20-25 home run guy in addition to one who posts .400+ on-base percentages. With good speed to boot, he's the whole package offensively. Defensively, there were already questions as to whether he could stick at shortstop, but in a Blue Jays system that's absolutely loaded with infield talent, that seems less likely. He hadn't been seen much at shortstop in deference to now-Pirates prospect Ethan Paul, and this year he's bounced around the field for Vanderbilt as well. The coaching staff there was never sold on his feel for the infield, even if he is a natural athlete with speed and strength, so he could end up at third base with a little refinement for the Blue Jays or center field if they want to go the path of least resistance. No matter where he ends up defensively, he should be a net-positive so long as it isn't shortstop, and the bat will play anywhere regardless. I'm really excited to see what he does in pro ball. Martin's $7 million signing bonus was about $820,000 above slot, but the Jays did it and they didn't shy away from their later picks. Pre-draft profile here.
2-42: RHP CJ Van Eyk, Florida State (my rank: 42)
CJ Van Eyk was a well-known draft prospect coming out of high school in the Tampa suburbs in 2017, but he wound up at Florida State and steadily built his stock up with a very impressive career in Tallahassee: 18-5, 3.21 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 225/83 K/BB in 176.2 innings. Van Eyk is the kind of pitcher who could have easily snuck into the back of the first round in most drafts, but this draft was so deep in college pitching that he fell to the Blue Jays in the second round. That's not to say that he should have gone higher, since the pitchers ahead of him really were legitimate arms, but it does mean the Jays can be really excited about this kind of name being available as a result. He leads off with a solid fastball in the low 90's that can reach up to 95, but his best pitch is a plus 12-6 curveball that he has tremendous feel for. Van Eyk also throws a slider and a changeup, though the fastball and curveball are his main pitches. His command is relatively inconsistent, but although it grades as clearly below average, it's not a huge red flag. He's generally at least around the zone and shows good feel for moving his curveball around the plate, so while pro hitters will be able to lay off his close misses for the most part, a few tweaks should get him up to average command. The 6'1" righty can make that work, because he gets a little bit of deception on his pitches as well, coming across his body to put tough angle on the ball. So long as he makes the necessary strides with his command, we're probably looking at a very solid #3 starter type, and even if his command remains below average, there's a good chance he can still crack it as a back-end starter. He signed for $1.8 million, which was about $30,000 above slot. Pre-draft profile here.
3-77: RHP Trent Palmer, Jacksonville (my rank: 143)
This marks a third straight pick with ties to the state of Florida. Austin Martin grew up in Jacksonville but left for school, CJ Van Eyk grew up in Tampa and stayed in state, and finally, Trent Palmer grew up in the Minneapolis area but headed way down south to Jacksonville for college. Personally, I'm not a huge fan of this pick, especially considering it was an over slot signing, but I see why the Blue Jays like him. Palmer is a 6'1" righty who had been solid, if unspectacular, over his first two seasons at Jacksonville, but he was very good on the Cape (1.21 ERA, 26/9 K/BB in 22.1 IP) then broke out in 2020 with a 1.30 ERA, a 0.61 WHIP, and a 41/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.2 innings. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, topping out around 96, and he adds a solid slider, curve, and changeup to go with it. Everything comes from an extremely loose arm that has enabled him to transition to starting very well, and his command has steadily improved throughout his college career, now playing close to average. He's a stockier guy who doesn't figure to add a ton of velocity, but he has enough to succeed right now and will just have to focus on sharpening his secondary pitches a little. They're pretty good right now, given his average-ish command, you'd probably want them to be a little crisper and miss more bats. If he can continue the trend he's on with his command and get to solid average or slightly above, though, he could fit in as a #4 starter. Otherwise, he could fit well in a bullpen role, where his stuff would likely tick up. Palmer signed for $847,500, which was about $41,900 above slot value.
4-106: RHP Nick Frasso, Loyola Marymount (my rank: 96)
There are a lot of question marks with Frasso, but the upside here is really exciting. He's a lanky 6'5" righty that looks uncoordinated out there on the field, but he brings lots of athleticism regardless. A standout high school basketball player in the Los Angeles suburbs, Frasso has been a steady performer at Loyola Marymount with a career 2.80 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 158/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.1 innings. He brings the heat with a low to mid 90's fastball that he can run up to 97, but the pitch plays way up because his long arms enable him to release the baseball practically right in front of the hitter's face. There is also some funk to his delivery and he puts high spin rates on the ball, meaning that its above average velocity plays more as a true plus pitch. For now, that's what the Blue Jays are buying, hoping they can develop the rest of his arsenal. His slider is his best secondary pitch, looking average overall but playing well off his fastball when he tunnels them together, and his changeup is definitely his third pitch. Despite his gangly stature and funky, jerky delivery, he's very coordinated and fills up the strike zone consistently. Now, he only threw 8.2 innings in 2020 because he missed time with forearm problems, and we're just going to have to see how that plays out. If he comes back healthy, there is some real upside. With the easy plus fastball and above average command, all he really needs to do is sharpen his secondary pitches a little bit to become a legitimate impact starter, should he prove durable enough to handle that role. If durability remains a concern or if the changeup never really comes along, he would fit great in the bullpen, so aside from injuries, I see a relatively high floor as well as some ceiling on top of it. I'm very interested to see where he goes in pro ball and I really hope he gets/stays healthy. Frasso signed for $459,000, which was $90,000 below slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
5-136: OF Zach Britton, Louisville (unranked)
This was the Blue Jays' main money saver to afford Austin Martin. Britton, of no relation to Yankees reliever Zack Britton, grew up in southeastern Indiana about 40 miles outside of Cincinnati, and he has steadily improved during his career at Louisville. He was off to a hot start in 2020, hitting .322/.446/.542 with a 12/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games, and that came on the heels of a solid run through the Cape Cod League. An average athlete at 6'1", he deploys his strength well in his whippy swing and shows solid average power while making very consistent contact. Usually, that power plays more into line drives than home runs in games, though he did hit five home runs on the Cape over the summer. The bat looks pretty interesting and should carry him to the big leagues, though he's an average defender in left field so the bat will be the sole thing pushing him up. If he can unlock a little bit more power, I could see him working his way into a starting role, though he's more likely to end up as a fourth outfielder in the long run. His $97,500 signing bonus was $312,600 below slot value.
Undrafted: IF/OF Zac Cook, Texas-Arlington (unranked)
Cook has been somewhat of a jack of all trades for the Mavericks over four years at UT Arlington, slashing .294/.395/.396 with seven home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 111/75 strikeout to walk ratio over 165 games. The Dallas-Fort Worth-area native was at his best in 2020, when he hit .321/.500/.623 with four home runs and a 13/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 16 games. At 6'1", he has been tapping into more of his raw power while continuing to make plenty of contact, showing a bat that should play as average all around in pro ball. He's played pretty much everywhere in the field at UTA, and will likely continue to be utilized in a super utility role in pro ball. Cook is also a great student, one that got into Dartmouth and Cornell but wanted to play baseball at UTA and is currently halfway through an MBA.
Undrafted: SS Harrison Ray, Vanderbilt (unranked)
Ray has been a mainstay in the Vanderbilt lineup for four years, though he's been more solid than flashy with a .259/.343/.378 slash line, five home runs, 37 stolen bases, and a 137/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 158 games. Though he only stands 5'11", he packs some punch as a hitter that usually plays as gap to gap power, and he's a good runner that can make the most of that. He's a pretty aggressive hitter that picks up his fair share of strikeouts, which has been the case throughout his career and might have limited his production a little bit. He's probably more of a second baseman than a shortstop and fits best as a utility infielder who can do a little bit of everything despite not having a standout ability.
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