Wednesday, July 8, 2020

2020 Draft Review: Chicago White Sox

1-11: LHP Garrett Crochet, Tennessee
2-47: RHP Jared Kelley, Refugio HS (TX)
3-83: RHP/IF Adisyn Coffey, Wabash Valley CC
4-112: RHP Kade Mechals, Grand Canyon
5-142: LHP Bailey Horn, Auburn

The White Sox clearly set out looking for pitching, and they started off by snagging their guy in Garrett Crochet. When their turn came back around in the second round, they were likely surprised to see star high school arm Jared Kelley still on the board, which changed up their draft plans a bit. Since they spent $7.55 million of their $7.76 million draft pool on their first two picks, they didn't have much left over for their last three, where they combined to spent just $210,000. Still, they got their five pitchers in five picks, albeit with most of the impact tied up in those first two.
Full index of team reviews here.

1-11: LHP Garrett Crochet, Tennessee (my rank: 14)
A projectable but raw arm coming out of high school on the Mississippi Gulf Coast, Garrett Crochet steadily realized his potential at Tennessee and has come out the other end a first rounder. A 6'6" lefty, he possesses a huge fastball that gets up to triple digits and sits consistently in the mid to upper 90's. His slider and changeup both flash plus consistently, giving him three true swing and miss pitches. Given his long arms, wide arm angle, and slightly funky delivery, it's even harder to square him up. Crochet also fills up the strike zone better than you might think for a pitcher of his profile, while the stuff was clearly what made the White Sox sit up, the command was likely the final selling point. The main hole in his profile is a lack of track record, as his stuff only reached its peak in the fall and he spent his first two seasons as a more good than great swingman. He was set to prove he could start in 2020, but he missed the first few weeks of the season with a sore shoulder, then the season shut down just after he returned. Overall, there's no reason to think he can't start, just that he hasn't proven that he can. That does matter, because you never really know how a guy will handle a full season in the rotation, but the stuff is explosive, the command is solid, and the delivery works well enough to have a lot of hope for a frontline starter – he's been comped to Chris Sale a lot since draft day. Even if he can't stick as a starter, the three pitch mix would work extremely well in the bullpen. He signed for $4.55 million, right at slot value. Pre-draft profile here.

2-47: RHP Jared Kelley, Refugio HS, TX (my rank: 10)
This pick means that Garrett Crochet is no longer the make or break of the draft class. Crochet's ceiling is pretty darn high, but Kelley's could be just as high. He's an old school Texas right hander from the tiny town of Refugio about half an hour north of Corpus Christi, birthplace of the great Nolan Ryan. Kelley is big and physical, standing 6'3" with an extremely durable frame, and it enables him to sit in the mid 90's and tough as high as 98-99 completely effortlessly. I cannot stress enough how easily this kid can hit excellent velocities without breaking a sweat. It looks like he's just playing catch up there, you watch him just kind of toss the ball in, and you look down at your radar gun and it says "98." The ease of operation enables him to be an above average strike thrower today, adept at hitting spots, and it's easy to project plus command down the road as he continues to refine his game. His changeup is a plus pitch as well, showing exceptional fade to the arm side with a little sink as well, and he locates it as well as he does his fastball. Currently, his third pitch and the reason he perhaps slipped a little (aside from bonus demands) is his slurvy breaking ball, which can flash above average or even plus at times but which usually just looks more like an average pitch. Developing that breaking ball will be key going forward for the Sox, as it's hard to imagine him as much more than a #4 starter without it. If he can refine it into even simply an above average pitch, the rest of his game points to a future as a #2 starter. He has the velocity, the changeup, the command, and the durable frame to hold up in a starting role, and I really like this value for the White Sox. He could move more quickly than the typical high school pitcher as well. Of course, the main reason he slipped this far was his price tag, and Chicago had to pony up $3 million to keep him from heading to Texas for college. That was about $1.42 million above slot value, which is about the recommended slot value at pick #22. Pre-draft profile here.

3-83: RHP/IF Adisyn Coffey, Wabash Valley CC (unranked)
A lot of people, even scouts, saw this pick and were left scratching their heads, wondering who the hell this guy is. He was drafted as a two way player, yet in a three year college career that took him from Arizona State to San Jacinto CC to Wabash Valley CC, he has just 50 relatively unproductive at bats and 6.1 innings pitched with an 8.53 ERA. Funny story time – I first heard the name in the summer of 2016, when I was reading up on the top performers from some showcase event. I was fairly new to really digging into prospects at that point, and I put Coffey's swing down as my favorite in the group. He didn't have the greatest spring and wound up heading to school, and as you can tell by the above stats/transfers, he faded from draft discussions pretty quickly. Aside from occasionally checking in on those unremarkable stats, I hadn't seen or heard his name in years, and when his name was announced as the 83rd overall pick, I almost fell off my couch. The guy whose swing I loved when I was a teenager is back! Anyways, onto Coffey the player. He's a bit of a hometown pick for the White Sox, hailing from the small town of Albany just outside of Muncie, Indiana, and he was drafted out of Wabash Valley College in southern Illinois. As a hitter, he has a really loose, whippy swing from the right side that produces some solid power from a 6'2" frame, though we really haven't seen him much at all and don't know how the bat will play in pro ball. The White Sox' scouts clearly saw something in him, and it will be really interesting to see how he develops as a hitter. On the mound, he shows a mid 90's fastball and a decent breaking ball, but again, we've barely seen him. Even aside from the fact that he's going to play both ways, I'm really excited to see how this pans out, because I've always admired the athleticism and the looseness of his operation, and we'll finally get to see how it plays out in pro ball. As for specific projection, though, your guess is as good as mine, since I couldn't find any video on him since high school – all I know is that I like him. He was committed to pitch at Louisville, but the White Sox signed him away from that pretty easily with $50,000, which was $683,100 below slot.

4-112: RHP Kade Mechals, Grand Canyon (unranked)
Another major money saver, Kade Mechals was drafted by the Marlins in the 40th round in 2019, but he didn't sign and opted to return for his senior year at Grand Canyon. He's been dominant over the past two seasons for the Lopes, going 12-2 with a 2.19 ERA and a 118/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 107 innings, but he went down with Tommy John surgery right before the shutdown and will spend the next year recovering. While it's not ideal that he won't step on a pro mound until he's 23 and a half years old next year, he does have a chance to work his way up as a back-end starter. A bit undersized at 5'11", he throws four average pitches in a fastball around 90, a curve, slider, and changeup. The changeup is probably his best pitch with great arm side fade, while the curve and slider are probably 45-50 grade offerings that can flash above average. If he sharpens everything up a notch, he has the solid strike throwing ability to stick as a #4 or #5 starter, but at 5'11" with fringy velocity, he does have to prove he can handle a starter's workload. If the White Sox bumped the McMinnville, Oregon native to the bullpen, he could see his fastball tick up a bit, focus on sharpening one breaking ball, and not worry as much about the durability. It would also help him move faster since he's getting such a late start. Mechals' $10,000 signing bonus was not only $507,400 below slot, but the lowest in the entire draft.

5-142: LHP Bailey Horn, Auburn (unranked)
Refugio's Jared Kelley wasn't the only small town Texan in this draft class, with fifth rounder Bailey Horn coming from the little town of West, about 17 miles north of Waco. The Czech capital of Texas, perhaps most well known for its numerous kolache stops along I-35 (I've tried them – they're great), also produced former White Sox outfielder Scott Podsednik, so the West -> South Side pipeline isn't a new one. Horn arrived at Auburn after a stop at McLennan CC, and after a mediocre 2019 (5.97 ERA, 31/20 K/BB), he was off to a strong start in 2020 with a 2.08 ERA and a 27/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 17.1 innings. The 6'2" lefty sits in the low 90's with his fastball and has been up to 94, adding in an inconsistent breaking ball and changeup that have improved from "consistently mediocre" to "sometimes mediocre, sometimes very good." That's progress, right? His control (ability to throw strikes) remains ahead of his command (ability to hit spots), but at his best, a lefty with a good three pitch mix and strike throwing ability is a very good prospect. The White Sox' job will be to get him more consistent with those secondary pitches, though as a redshirt junior, he's already 22. He might be able to do that, but if not, he could fit well in the bullpen and move more quickly. His $150,000 signing bonus was $236,600 below slot.

Undrafted: OF Duke Ellis, Texas (unranked)
Why not continue loading up on the small town Texans? Nacogdoches, deep in East Texas, is a little bigger than Refugio and West, but it's certainly no Dallas or Houston. Ellis, who was high school teammates with and one class ahead of Orioles 2018 first round pick Grayson Rodriguez, has been an on-base machine for the Longhorns and was off to a hot start in 2020, slashing .302/.441/.377 with seven stolen bases and a 15/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games. He's a very patient hitter who draws lots of walks, and while that patience can get him into some moderate strikeout trouble when he gets into deep counts, there's not a ton of swing and miss in his game and he even had a .421 on-base percentage in the Cape Cod League in 2018. Even though he's an athletic guy at 6'2", there's not much power to speak of, and he likely won't ever be much of a home run threat. Ellis is also a plus runner who has stolen 40 bases to two home runs in his Texas career, giving him a solid fourth or fifth outfielder profile down the line.

Undrafted: LHP Ty Madrigal, St. Mary's (unranked)
Did you know Nick Madrigal has a twin brother? Ty is a little bigger, actually, listed at six feet tall, and he's a pitcher, not a hitter. The redshirt senior had his best season back in 2018, when he put up a 1.90 ERA and a 54/19 strikeout to walk ratio in 47.1 innings as a reliever, and he transitioned to starting with a 4.43 ERA and an 18/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.1 innings in 2020. He has a low 90's fastball and a decent slider/changeup, but given his age (23) and unremarkable stuff, he probably fits best in the bullpen. For now, he's probably most notable just for his twin brother, but if his stuff ticks up in the bullpen, he could carve out his own career as a useful lefty reliever.

No comments:

Post a Comment