1-13: C Patrick Bailey, North Carolina State
2-49: 3B Casey Schmitt, San Diego State
2C-67: LHP Nick Swiney, North Carolina State
2C-68: SS Jimmy Glowenke, Dallas Baptist
3-85: LHP Kyle Harrison, De La Salle HS (CA)
4-114: RHP RJ Dabovich, Arizona State
5-144: RHP Ryan Murphy, Le Moyne College
With seven picks, including two compensation picks for Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith, the Giants tied the Cardinals for the most selections in the 2020 draft. They went for six college players in those seven picks, with local Bay Area lefty Kyle Harrison being the lone high schooler. Overall, it was a class more geared towards safety than high upside, with most of the players selected looking like high probability major leaguers who have a good chance to contribute in some way or another. At the top, Patrick Bailey was certainly an interesting selection given the presence of both Buster Posey and 2019 first rounder Joey Bart, but baseball teams don't draft for need, and I explained the likely thought process below in Bailey's section.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-13: C Patrick Bailey, North Carolina State (my rank: 16)
Buster Posey, Joey Bart, and Patrick Bailey – is there a better collection of catching anywhere in baseball? Quality catchers that can hit are always in short supply around baseball, but the Giants have an embarrassment of riches behind the plate, and they're very happy about that. Buster won't block either Bart or Bailey, but it will be interesting to see how the Giants handle their 2019 and 2020 first round picks going forward. I don't fault them at all for making this selection, as Bailey had been rumored as high as the top ten picks and they grabbed who they saw as the best player available. Down the road, they could trade one of Bailey or Bart to net a superstar, or they could mix them both behind the plate and keep them fresh. Anyways, on to Bailey the player. He was a well-known draft prospect coming out of Wesleyan Christian Academy in High Point, North Carolina, and he's been a three year performer at NC State by hitting .302/.411/.568 with 29 home runs and a 93/86 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games. A switch hitter, he's a little smoother from the left side, and he produces above average raw power from both sides. Bailey also brings a patient approach at the plate, though there is a little bit of swing and miss in his game. The bat is probably more solid than elite overall, projecting for perhaps 20-25 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages, but given his defense, that will absolutely play. While he's not elite back there, he's safely above average in all aspects and will definitely stick, with the ability to block, frame, and throw well. There aren't many backstops who can hit like that, so Bailey is a really low risk pick who profiles as a strong backup at the absolute minimum. He signed for $3.8 million, which was just about $400,000 below slot. Pre-draft profile here.
2-49: 3B Casey Schmitt, San Diego State (my rank: 62)
Schmitt wasn't really regarded as a top 50 pick heading into the draft, but the Giants got him under slot and given that, I really like the value. Schmitt grew up in the San Diego area and stayed home to attend San Diego State, where he has been very effective as a two-way player. In addition to hitting .295/.366/.408 with six home runs and a 72/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 career games, he also has a 2.48 ERA and a 78/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 87 innings in relief. He also was a top performer on both ends in the elite Cape Cod League over the summer, where he hit eight home runs and put up a 1.93 ERA. Regardless, it looks like the Giants are going to use him as a hitter only, which I personally agree with. He shows above average raw power from the right side that played up on the Cape with wood bats, but it's played more average at San Diego State as he employs more of a line drive approach. He finds the barrel very consistently and with that strong 6'2" frame, I could easily see him tapping more of his raw power in pro ball while maintaining good on-base percentages. He's also a strong defender at third base with a great arm and good range, which will definitely be a plus as third basemen are shifting more and more. There are no true plus tools aside from his arm, but he's solid average or better across the board and I think he'll be a valuable contributor down the line. If the Giants ever change their mind and put him back on the mound, his low 90's fastball and good splitter would make him a solid major league reliever. He signed for $1.15 million, about $360,000 below slot. Pre-draft profile here.
2C-67: LHP Nick Swiney, North Carolina State (my rank: 97)
After grabbing Patrick Bailey in the first round, the Giants went back to Raleigh 53 picks later to pick up his staff ace. Swiney wasn't a huge prospect early in his Wolfpack career, where he picked up plenty of strikeouts in relief with fringy stuff and command. However, he transitioned to the rotation in 2020 and took a huge step forward, putting up a 1.29 ERA, a 0.68 WHIP, and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 innings, including a one hit, 15 strikeout performance against Purdue on February 29th. The 6'3" lefty shows solid stuff, sitting around 90 with his average fastball but getting swings and misses on it because he comes from a deceptive crossfire delivery. His secondary stuff is his real bread and butter, with a two plane curveball that also misses bats and a plus, sinking changeup that routinely fools hitters. The three pitches played way up in 2020 not only due to the crossfire delivery, but because he commanded them much better than he has in the past. At his best, when he's commanding his pitches well and his fastball is creeping into the low 90's, he looks like a legitimate impact starting pitcher, but there is a little bit he does have to prove. He'll need to prove that the gains he made with his command were legitimate, and he'll also need to add a little bit more velocity. With one of the two, he could still be a #4/#5 starter, but with both, we could be looking at a #2 or a #3. Since he is new to starting, there is hope that more velocity could come. Personally, looking back at my ranking of #97, I think I sold him a little bit short. Swiney signed for $1.2 million, which was $223,300 above slot. Pre-draft profile.
2C-68: SS Jimmy Glowenke, Dallas Baptist (my rank: 121)
The only team with back to back selections at any point, the Giants headed over to Dallas Baptist to pick up infielder Jimmy Glowenke. He's been a hitting machine for three years with the Patriots, slashing .340/.433/.506 with 17 home runs and a 76/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 139 games, in addition to 30 hit by pitches. Glowenke also hit well on the Cape, showing off his main asset: an extremely consistent 55 grade hit tool. Though his swing can get a hair long at times, he keeps the barrel in the zone for a long time and drives line drives around the park consistently, and at least with metal, he's run into his share of home runs as well. I think the story will continue to be the same in pro ball, with lots of line drives and hard contact that translate into moderate game power. At 5'10", he's not huge and relies on feel for the game over raw tools, so his ceiling is relatively limited, but you can't argue with the track record. He'll probably have to move off shortstop and slide to second base in the long term, but I think the bat still profiles well enough there. He's probably a utility infielder who can end up with 10-15 home runs a year and good on-base percentages at his ceiling. He signed for $600,000, which was $353,100 below slot.
3-85: LHP Kyle Harrison, De La Salle HS, CA (my rank: 66)
For their hometown pick, the Giants went big and selected De La Salle lefty Kyle Harrison from across the bay. He's an interesting combination of polish and projectability, and a lot of evaluators thought he could significantly boost his stock with performance at UCLA had he followed through on the commitment. Right now, he sits in the low 90's with his fastball, occasionally brushing 93-94 but usually sitting closer to 90. It's not huge velocity, but it's enough for now. His slider is his best pitch, a slower, upper 70's bender with big horizontal break that's fairly unique among prep breaking balls. It needs to add power, for sure, but you can't really ask for better shape at this point in his career. There's a changeup as well, though it's more of an average pitch for now. Everything plays up for Harrison because he hides the ball really well in his delivery, and a loose three quarters arm slot only helps. He also throws lots of strikes and should develop above average command as he moves forward, enabling him to work his pitches off each other really well. For now, the Danville native just needs to focus on adding strength to his 6'2" frame, and if he can add a little bit of velocity to his fastball and some power to his slider, we're looking at a real impact starting pitcher. He hasn't signed yet but will likely need more than the $710,700 slot value to keep from pitching at UCLA. Pre-draft profile here.
4-114: RHP RJ Dabovich, Arizona State (my rank: 139)
Out in the desert, RJ Dabovich is a risky but really interesting arm. After starting his career at Central Arizona, the Pueblo, Colorado native transferred to Arizona State and was solid enough as a sophomore swingman (7-1, 4.75 ERA, 47/26 K/BB in 53 IP) to garner significant draft interest. Back in the bullpen full time in 2020, he allowed just one earned run (0.77 ERA) on three hits and struck out 17 batters in 11.2 innings, but also walked nine. Dabovich has explosive stuff, sitting in the low to mid 90's but touching as high as 99 in games, and he adds a pair of good breaking balls. The slider is tough to square up with sharp two-plane movement, and the curve is more of an average pitch but plays up because of the fastball and slider. Everything comes from a really fast arm and not a ton of effort, but he has trouble repeating his high arm slot and that has led to the command issues. To me, the delivery doesn't seem quite as repeatable as you'd like for a starting pitcher, which might mean that command will always be an issue, but I could see him doing really well in the bullpen with that stuff. Clean up the command a little bit, get it closer to average, and let him fly with that big velocity and power breaking balls. He hasn't signed yet, but I imagine the Giants might ask him to take a discount off his $507,400 slot value.
5-144: RHP Ryan Murphy, Le Moyne (unranked)
Le Moyne College in Syracuse has quietly put together a quality Division II baseball program, one which spawned Reds competitive balance pick and current Dodgers star prospect Josiah Gray in 2018. Two years later, Ryan Murphy could be the next big name to come out of the school. A 6'1" right hander, Murphy struck out 36 to just four walks in 23 innings this year, and that came on the heels of an extremely strong run through the New England Collegiate Baseball League (5-2, 2.25 ERA, 55/12 K/BB in 48 IP). The NECBL isn't the same caliber as the Cape Cod League, but it's still filled with Division I hitters (including Orioles second rounder Hudson Haskin) and Murphy was just dominant there. He doesn't have overwhelming velocity, sitting in the upper 80's and perhaps scraping the low 90's, but he gets good ride on his fastball that makes it tough to square up. He also adds a full set of secondary pitches, with his slider looking like his best strikeout pitch and his curve and changeup showing promise as well. Since he does not turn 21 until October, he is very young for a college junior, giving him time to perhaps add a little bit of velocity. The youth probably gives more hope for added velocity than the smaller 6'1" frame, and he may fit better in the bullpen if the velocity doesn't come. The only video I could find was from his freshman year in 2018, and at least at the time, it looks like he had a really interesting delivery in which he would stand on the rubber for upwards of thirty seconds waiting for the hitter to get ready, then slide his right (back) leg all the way across the rubber from the third base to the first base side before driving off. He signed for $25,000, which was $354,000 below slot value.
Undrafted: RHP Wil Jensen, Pepperdine (unranked)
Jensen is a Tommy John survivor who is set to turn 23 in September, but sandwiched around that 2018 surgery, he has a track record of success. Since the start of the 2018 season, the Salt Lake City native is 8-1 with a 1.38 ERA and a 62/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.1 innings for Pepperdine, including a 2.19 ERA and a 26/6 strikeout to walk ratio this season. His best pitch is a low 90's fastball that can get up to 94, while he also adds a slider, curveball, and changeup. Of those, the slider is the best with nice hard bite, while the curve and change are more just decent. Despite a relatively high effort delivery, he's a very good strike thrower that can effectively work his pitches off each other, which in addition to his 6'3" frame, gives hope that he can continue to start. He'll probably have to refine either the curve or changeup a little bit in order to do so, but in that case he could fit well as a #4 or #5 starter. If not, the fastball could tick up in shorter stints and he could focus on the slider as his main secondary weapon, coming together with good command to be an effective reliever.
Undrafted: C Robert Emery, San Francisco (unranked)
Emery is as hometown a player as it gets for the Giants. Growing up a Giants fan, he attended St. Ignatius High School in the Sunset District, then headed across the country to Dartmouth for college. After a moderately successful redshirt freshman season in 2016, he transferred down to USF and redshirted again, but transferred once more back to his hometown to play for the University of San Francisco. After struggling as a redshirt-redshirt sophomore, things perked up a bit in 2019 when he hit .320/.386/.479 with five home runs, then he exploded in 2020 with a .381/.451/.540 line and two home runs in 17 games. That got Arkansas on the phone and he committed to play there as a graduate transfer, but then the Giants came calling and the plans changed. He produces solid pop from the right side and has been getting to hit more and more in games, and while he doesn't draw a ton of walks, he controls the strike zone reasonably well and usually puts the ball in play. Emery is also a strong defender who works well with pitchers, so overall, it's a pretty clear backup profile, especially given the amount of talent ahead of him in this system. He's also set to turn 24 in October, making him one of the oldest players to sign this year.
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