Showing posts with label Atlanta Braves. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Atlanta Braves. Show all posts

Friday, August 15, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Atlanta Braves

Full list of draftees

The Braves looked at their pick values and decided to completely disregard them. First rounder Tate Southisene got nearly a million and a half below slot value, second rounder Alex Lodise was below as well, third rounder Cody Miller wound up with a seventh round bonus, fourth rounder Briggs McKenzie got the highest bonus of them all, and fifth rounder Conor Essenburg got almost as much as Lodise. In rounds eight, nine, and ten, the Braves handed a paltry $10,000 combined to three senior signs. While the Braves broke a streak of five straight drafts beginning with a pitcher (and eight out of nine) by going position player this year, their highest bonus did still go to a pitcher. After starting with three straight shortstops, it was a pitching-heavy class that included selecting twelve arms in a fourteen pick stretch from rounds six through nineteen. They also scooped up plenty of semi-local talent from around the South including three North Carolinians, two South Carolinians, two Alabamans, a Mississippian, and a North Floridian, albeit no Georgians.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-22: SS Tate Southisene, Basic HS [NV]
Slot value: $3.98 million. Signing bonus: $2.62 million ($1.36 million below slot value).
My rank: #59. MLB Pipeline: #39. Baseball America: #43.
While he didn't earn the highest bonus in the Braves' class, Tate Southisene became the Braves' first round position player since Shea Langeliers and Braden Shewmake in 2019. Southisene signed for a massive haircut, taking roughly the slot value of the #37 pick to sign here at #22 rather than attend Southern California. The younger brother of last year's Cubs' fourth rounder Ty Southisene, Tate is just a bit bigger and more physical than his 5'9" brother. It's a relatively noisy operation at the plate with more pre-pitch movement in the hands than you'd like to see, but he makes up for it with a very accurate barrel that has played up against top competition both on the showcase circuit and against high school pitching in Las Vegas. On top of the hand-eye coordination, Southisene is a disciplined hitter comfortable against high octane stuff, making for a very pro-ready bat. If the Braves can iron out his hitch, he could be an above average or better hitter in time. While he's undersized at 5'11", he rotates and accelerates really well from the right side, creating great hip-shoulder separation to create average power. He'll face questions about whether he can continue to tap that power with wood bats, but the truth is the kid can hit and he can hit a lot. The offensive projection here is that of a 10-20 home run bat that can run high on-base percentages, which would be enough to start in virtually any lineup. He's an above average runner as well that has seen time all over the field and can end up at any number of positions. His above average arm plays up further due to its accuracy, and the Braves look like they'll trot him out as a shortstop to start. He'll need to work to stick there and could end up at third base or in the outfield, where his speed and arm could help him play all three positions at an above average clip. The whole operation reminds me somewhat of Mookie Betts, especially if he can quiet down his hands in the box with pro instruction. Of course I am not projecting him to win multiple MVP's, but it's never a bad thing when your game resembles one of the best in the world.

1-60: SS Alex Lodise, Florida State
Slot value: $1.52 million. Signing bonus: $1.3 million ($225,700 below slot).
My rank: #50. MLB Pipeline: #43. Baseball America: #26.
This is a bit later than many expected Alex Lodise to be drafted, especially given that he signed below slot value, with some of those highest on his talent projecting him in the back of the first round. Instead, Lodise fell to the Braves here near the back of the second round. A native of the Jacksonville area, his cousin Kyle grew up in Brunswick, Georgia and attended Georgia Tech before being drafted in the third round by the White Sox. Alex began his college career at North Florida, where he earned numerous accolades for a huge freshman season and transferred to Florida State after one year. After a good-not-great sophomore season, he exploded for a massive junior season in 2025 slashing .394/.462/.705 with 17 home runs and earned ACC Player of the Year honors alongside being named a consensus First Team All American. Impressively, Lodise did it while kind of just whacking at everything. With a very aggressive approach at the plate, he swung and swung hard at just about anything near the zone and it worked astonishingly well. He did strike out in 20% of his plate appearances, but he ran decent contact rates and hit .431 in conference play against some of the better pitching in the country. He has above average raw power, but tapped all of it in games with a leveraged, uppercut swing that helped him lift the ball to the pull side with consistency. While one would think that kind of approach is unsustainable in pro ball, he hit .431/.492/.836 with 12 home runs in 28 conference games as well as .295/.339/.410 in a smaller Cape Cod League sample, so it hasn't bitten him yet. He projects for 20+ home runs annually in pro ball if he can continue to get to that pull side power, though his on-base percentages could dip significantly depending on how his approach holds up. His glove will certainly help, with a nice combination of speed and arm strength that should play at shortstop so long as he continues to refine his glovework. If not, he'll fit well at second or third base and could be above average at either position, making a utility infielder floor very realistic should his bat falter.

3-96: SS Cody Miller, East Tennessee State
Slot value: $796,000. Signing bonus: $297,500 ($498,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
With a third straight money saver, the Braves gave Cody Miller early seventh round money to sign here in the third round. He's a plenty interesting talent though that brings more upside than the typical $300K collegiate pick. A three year starter at East Tennessee State, he has always been an on-base machine for the Buccaneers but hit just four home runs over his first two seasons, then exploded for 18 as a junior as he helped lead the school to its first forty win season since 1981. While Miller lacks a carrying tool, he does a lot of things well. His simple right handed swing helps him produce hard contact to all fields, with high barrel accuracy and an adjustable bat path that helps him get to balls all over the zone. Despite chasing at a high clip, he ran just a 12.3% strikeout rate and hit .331. Miller, like Alex Lodise, is aggressive and that could get him into trouble making the jump from the Southern Conference to pro ball, but he has handled better arms well in limited samples, including a .261/.333/.449 run through the Cape Cod League and home runs this season against Tennessee, Virginia Tech, Pitt, and Louisville. Undersized at 5'11" like Tate Southisene, he has done a better job turning on the ball this spring and has shown some sneaky power, likely enough for double digit home run totals at the big league level. The Long Island native is also a plus runner that stole 27 bases in 30 tries this spring, good for a 90% success rate, and he can get move around the infield well. The tools might be a touch stretched at shortstop, but he should be able to handle that role at least in a part time capacity at the big league level and has the ability to fill in at any infield position. It's probably a utility infielder profile here with a chance to hit his way into being a bottom of the lineup every day second baseman. He's young for a college junior, having turned 21 shortly before the draft.

4-127: LHP Briggs McKenzie, Corinth Holders HS [NC]
Slot value: $588,900. Signing bonus: $3 million ($2.41 million above slot value).
My rank: #72. MLB Pipeline: #69. Baseball America: #46.
The Braves' largest bonus went not to first round pick Tate Southisene, not to second rounder Alex Lodise, nor to third rounder Cody Miller, but to fourth rounder Briggs McKenzie, who signed for just over the slot value of the #32 overall pick rather than attend LSU. McKenzie generated massive buzz early this spring when he came out of the gate firing and while he didn't quite build off it, the Braves were sold and invested heavily. A product of Wendell, North Carolina, a small (but growing) town just east of Raleigh, he sits in the low 90's and tops out around 95 with carrying action at best but can also dip into the upper 80's at times. His plus curveball is a real separator with big two-plane tilt and plenty of finish, while his changeup is emerging as an average third offering. McKenzie sticks out most for his projection, with a lanky 6'2" frame that figures to get much, much stronger in time, which should help him hold his peak velocity better and move more consistently into the mid 90's in time. Given his slim stature, that conditioning will be key. McKenzie is an athlete on the mound and repeats his easy delivery well, showing average command for now with the chance to get to above average in time. He does have a tendency to change his arm slot on his offspeed stuff at times and will need to hone that in. There's a really nice combination of youth, projection, athleticism, present stuff (especially in the breaking ball), and even some polish that could lead to a ceiling as a high end left handed starter. He'll need to get much stronger, get more consistent with his secondary stuff, and hold his health and command to do so. Given the massive bonus he received from Atlanta, the Braves are all in.

4C-136: 2B Dixon Williams, East Carolina
Slot value: $539,700. Signing bonus: $497,500 ($42,200 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #197.
Dixon Williams gives the Braves a second straight pick out of eastern North Carolina. The Greenville native and DH Conley High School alum stayed home to attend East Carolina, where he played sparingly as a freshman but has been a force in the lineup over the last two seasons. The hometown hero will forever be remembered for his home run against now-Reds starter Chase Burns that propelled ECU to Super Regionals, and now he'll take his talents to Atlanta. He's a very balanced hitter that stands out for an advanced approach at the plate, helping him run a 16.8% walk rate and a .451 on-base percentage for the Pirates this year. The pure bat to ball is a tick behind, but he swings at the right pitches and looks poised to handle pro pitching relatively smoothly. While the raw power is fringy, Williams elevates the ball effectively to his pull side to produce average power in games, giving him a shot to produce 10-15 home runs annually in the big leagues, perhaps a tick more in his best years, with good on-base percentages at his ceiling. Though he's an above average runner that stole 22 bases in 25 tries (88% success rate) this year, he's not quite springy or explosive enough for shortstop and fits better at second or third base. He profiles as a bat-first utility infielder who could potentially handle shortstop in a pinch, or perhaps a left handed platoon bat.

5-157: OF Conor Essenburg, Lincoln-Way West HS [IL]
Slot value: $438,600. Signing bonus: $1.2 million ($758,900 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #221. Baseball America: #183.
This is a really fun one. Conor Essenburg has long impressed scouts with his two-way exploits, but with plenty of rawness on both sides of his game and a firm commitment to Kentucky, it seemed like we'd be talking about him more during the 2028 draft cycle. However, the Braves are sold on the upside and handed him roughly the slot value of the #70 overall pick to give up pitching and come swing the bat full time in their system. Essenburg has a bit of a noisy setup at the plate with a leg kick, hip turn, and a dip in his back side to get on plane and launch the ball in the air, but he does a good job of consistently getting to that position to do damage. It's above average power for now that could get to plus in time as he fills out his 6'2" frame, and he already has that penchant for driving the ball in the air. Hitters with those mechanics typically struggle with velocity up, and Essenburg certainly has his swing and miss questions, but he did homer off a 99 MPH fastball up and away against unsigned first round prospect and now Mississippi State Bulldog Jack Bauer back in April. The Chicago-area product is an aggressive hitter who will need to clean up his approach, as well as potentially his mechanics, in pro ball, but the Braves believe in the athlete and are confident that he'll hit. At peak, there is 20-25 home run upside with potentially solid batting averages. Essenburg probably fits in right field going forward, where his plus arm will be an asset. He also attracted considerable attention on the mound, where he was up to 94 with his fastball from the left side and good feel for spin. I'm personally a believer in former two-way prospects finding success in one or the other as they have showcased their athleticism and adaptability in the past in a way others haven't.

6-187: LHP Landon Beidelschies, Arkansas
Slot value: $338,900. Signing bonus: $297,500.
My rank: #146. MLB Pipeline: #208. Baseball America: #72.
In the sixth round, the Braves found an arm that has shown significant promise in the past and who many did not think would be available this late earlier in the season. Landon Beidelschies began his career at Ohio State, where he turned into one of their most reliable starting pitchers before transferring to Arkansas for his junior year. He started off strong with his new club with impressive starts against Washington State and Charlotte, pushing himself into top two rounds consideration, but struggled to a 6.56 ERA in SEC play and saw his role reduced on a loaded Arkansas pitching staff. It's still a really interesting product. The fastball sits low 90's but can touch as high as 98 in short stints, while his plus gyro slider dives under bats late to help him pile up strikeouts. His changeup has flashed but will need further refinement in pro ball. The 6'3", 230 pound lefty has a thick build and looks more strong than explosive on the mound, with a shorter arm action and somewhat stiff delivery. Still, he has pounded the strike zone in college and ran a career-best 7.6% walk rate and 65.4% strike rate in 2025 despite facing tougher competition in the SEC, pointing to at least average command going forward. Beidelschies' stuff played better in short stints and wasn't quite as crisp in longer starts in 2025, so if the Braves want him to remain a starter, they'll need to help him hold his stuff better multiple times through the lineup as well as bring that changeup along. If not, the Ohio native could sit mid 90's and pitch off his nasty slider in the bullpen.

12-367: RHP Jay Woolfolk, Virginia
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #253.
Jay Woolfolk has been known to Virginia evaluators for a long time. A star athlete at Benedictine College Prep, a catholic military high school outside of Richmond, Woolfolk got a lot done. He played on the basketball team, his least impressive sport. As a sophomore in 2019, he was named the Virginia Gatorade Player of the Year in baseball while leading the Cadets to a state championship. That fall, he won another state championship as the quarterback of the football team, then in 2021 he took home second state championship in baseball just before graduation. Heading to Charlottesville, he played both baseball and football and made it into nine games as a quarterback, though his future would be in baseball. He was named a freshman All American in 2022 in his first of two excellent seasons in the Cavaliers' bullpen, but had a rocky transition to starting in 2024 and went undrafted. Back starting in 2025, he dropped his ERA from 5.92 to 4.73, increased his strikeout rate from 23.1% to 26.9%, and slashed his walk rate from 13.8% to 8.6%. Woolfolk sits in the low 90's and touches 96 at peak, coming in with riding action from a high slot. He drops in a hard slider and a solid changeup, all coming from an uncomfortable cross body delivery that hides the ball well. The 6' righty was filling up the strike zone much better in 2025 and now has the look of a polished arm who has "been there before." He remains an excellent athlete and could be given the chance to start in the Braves organization, or they could let him get back to what he did best as a stone cold reliever early in his UVA career. Regardless, Woolfolk has become synonymous with UVA baseball over the past four years and exits with nearly 100 appearances and nearly 200 innings under his belt. As a bonus, he was teammates with Braves eighth rounder and fellow Richmond-area product Carter Lovasz on his high school travel team.

14-427: RHP Mathieu Curtis, Virginia Tech
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Mathieu Curtis brings the Braves a fun arm they can work with. A native of Fort Mill, South Carolina, where he attended Fort Mill High School just outside of Charlotte, he began his career at USC Upstate and held his own as a starting pitcher. Virginia Tech liked his arm talent and brought him in as a transfer, where he posted career-best 5.35 ERA and 26.9% strikeout rate in the bullpen. He's a low slot arm with a low 90's fastball that reaches the mid 90's at peak, staying off barrels with hard running life. His slider dives across the plate with two-plane action, and he does show a tertiary changeup. The 6'5" righty creates a tough look for hitters with his size and low three quarters arm slot, which will fit right into the bullpen in the Braves organization. His control is ahead of his command, so he can pound the strike zone but often lacks the ability to command to the various quadrants. Curtis is young for a college junior, not turning 21 until more than a month after the draft.

15-457: OF Dallas Macias, Oregon State
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #175. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Dallas Macias technically finds himself on my draft, board, but that #175 ranking should be read as #175 out of 175 rather than as an endorsement that he is the 175th best prospect in the class. Macias didn't play much as a freshman in 2023, but hit his way into a starting role and was one of Oregon State's most reliable bats in 2024. Looking forward to an even bigger 2025, he instead never got off the ground and hit just .159/.305/.243 and fell out of his starting role less than halfway through the season. Still, there is a lot of talent here and the Braves aren't drafting a .159 hitter for nothing. Despite the poor numbers, he controlled the strike zone very well and walked (15.8%) more than he struck out (15.0%) and suffered from poor batted ball luck. Previously showing average raw power with eight home runs in 2024, he didn't square it up as often in 2025 and finished with just five total extra base hits, including only a pair of home runs. Macias has a fluid left handed swing and had previously tapped that power by elevating effectively to the pull side. The Braves believe the hitter he was in 2024 is still in there and will point to his always excellent plate discipline, which led to an excellent .375 on-base percentage and just a 6.9% strikeout rate in 19 games in the Cape Cod League last year, and say that he's a legitimate all-around bat. Additionally, he is a strong defender in the outfield who can handle center field and profiles as above average in an outfield corner. This is a fourth outfield reclamation project.

Sunday, August 4, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Atlanta Braves

Full list of draftees

The Braves do very well with young pitchers, and this class was chock full of them. Atlanta grabbed nine pitchers in their first ten picks, pausing only for fifth rounder and catcher Nick Montgomery, then switched more towards position players on day three which made up eight of ten. Two preps, including Montgomery, ate up most of their over slot signings, which were balanced out with a quartet of senior signs in rounds 7-10 which combined for a paltry $12,500 in bonuses, including just $2,500 apiece in rounds nine and ten.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-24: LHP Cam Caminiti, Saguaro HS [AZ] {video}
Slot value: $3.56 million. Signing bonus: $3.56 million.
My rank: #25. MLB Pipeline: #15. Baseball America: #21.
Cam Caminiti was considered by many to be the top high school pitching prospect in the country, with some projecting him as high as the top dozen or so picks. When he fell to the Braves towards the back of the first round, it would have been reasonable to assume he would have asked for a large over slot bonus, but the Braves kept him away from LSU for slot value. There's a reason so many love Caminiti. A cousin of former big leaguer Ken Caminiti, Cam was one of the younger players available in this class, only turning 18 in August. He oozes projection in his 6'2" frame, with an athletic, polished operation on the mound despite his young age. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with riding life, playing up further because he gets a fairly low release point. He has been critiqued for his pure feel for spin at times, and that ultimately is probably what got him down to the Braves in this part of the draft. His sweepy slider sits in the upper 70's while his big, slow curveball parks in the low 70's. Both pitches have nice shape but will need to add at least a few ticks of power to both for them to be swing and miss pitches against pro hitters. Caminiti also shows a nice fading changeup that has gotten more and more consistent, looking like an above average pitch now. The Phoenix-area native is a very skilled player all around and could cut it as a center fielder, albeit not in the first round. The Braves love high school pitching and Caminiti is as complete a prospect as you'll find in that demographic sans the breaking ball.

2-62: LHP Carter Holton, Vanderbilt {video}
Slot value: $1.39 million. Signing bonus: $1.35 million ($35,000 below slot value).
My rank: #80. MLB Pipeline: #69. Baseball America: #67.
The Braves picked up another lefty with their second pick, and this time it was a hometown guy. Carter Holton grew up in Guyton, Georgia, about 25 miles northwest of Savannah, and attended Benedictine Military School in Savannah. There he blossomed into one of the better high school pitching prospects in the country, earning interest in the top few rounds and ranking #135 on my 2021 draft list. He made it to campus at Vanderbilt, where his college career has been up and down but more up and down. He jumped into the Commodore rotation immediately as a freshman and showed extremely well, but didn't progress as hoped as a sophomore in 2023. 2024 was up and down as well, though when he was on he looked sharp enough to hold his stock roughly where it was entering the season. Holton certainly has an interesting profile. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and has hit 98 at peak, coming in with just moderate life. He has great feel for a big, deep curveball that dives across the plate with two-plane break, while his tighter slider has proven more effective for him lately. Lastly, he has started to incorporate his changeup more and it is proving to be a pretty effective pitch for him at this point. While the stuff itself is closer to average than plus, it plays up because Holton hides the ball very well with his crossfire, over the top delivery to create deception. Just 5'11", he does throw with some effort but has held the strike zone pretty well in his three years in Nashville, looking like a more complete pitcher when he stays within himself and doesn't try to overthrow. Durability will be a question mark because of that, but with 200 innings over 41 games (39 starts) in his career at Vanderbilt he's taken the ball every time asked.

3-99: RHP Luke Sinnard, Indiana {video}
Slot value: $737,800. Signing bonus: $735,300 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #185. Baseball America: #287.
Luke Sinnard was on my radar as the draft approached, but ultimately found himself in that next group of players that I didn't get around to researching and therefore was left off my draft rankings. After pitching in the same Beech High School rotation as Chase Burns, he began his career with a year at Western Kentucky before transferring to Indiana as a sophomore. There, the Nashville-area product put up a big 2023 season, but ultimately went down with Tommy John and missed the 2024 season. Sinnard is a towering arm, standing 6'8" and looking every bit of it. On top of that, his high arm slot creates 7'1" release height that is just plain bonkers, about a full foot higher than typical. The fastball is not overwhelming, sitting in the low 90's and touching 96 with riding life that gets obscured by the steep approach angle, but it's just coming straight down on you. He has a big, true 12-6 curveball that could be a plus pitch when factoring in his command of it, while he can work his tighter slider into more of a cutter to get the full spectrum of movement. Sinnard also throws a changeup, but it's behind his other offerings and will need refinement. With a pretty clean delivery and great feel for his body, he shows above average command and looks like a pretty complete back-end starting pitching prospect. Obviously we'll see how everything comes back from injury, but he's already up and throwing bullpens again and could fly through the system once he gets fully healthy.

4-129: LHP Herick Hernandez, Miami {video}
Slot value: $551,100. Signing bonus: $472,500 ($78,600 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #419.
This is a bit earlier than Herick Hernandez probably expected to go, and it gives the Braves a second undersized lefty. Hernandez began his career at Miami Dade JC then transferred to Miami after two seasons, where he immediately announced his presence with six no-hit innings against NJIT in his debut, striking out ten in the process. The rest of the season was more uneven, but the Braves clearly loved the stuff. Hernandez sits in the low 90's with his fastball and has touched 95, not overwhelming but he gets over 20 inches of riding life on the pitch to make it play up. His slider looks like an above average pitch and proved to be very effective for him against ACC hitters, while his curveball has deeper break and offers a change of pace. There's also a changeup in there, but it's too firm in the upper 80's and didn't miss as many bats. The 5'10" lefty utilizes an over the top delivery with long arm action and shorter extension, creating a bit of deception without hampering his average command. Age is a bonus here, as the Miami-area native didn't turn 21 until nearly a month after the draft, but he lacks projection in his smaller frame. The Braves may push him to the bullpen to see what he can do in shorter stints, with the fastball potentially ticking up towards the mid 90's with that same big riding life.

5-161: C Nick Montgomery, Cypress HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $403,400. Signing bonus: $997,500 ($594,100 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #196. Baseball America: #222.
Nick Montgomery has been an up arrow prospect all spring, one which was on my radar at the end of the draft process but which I ultimately did not get around to studying, much like Luke Sinnard. Initially committed to Arizona State, Montgomery instead signed with the Braves for nearly a million dollars, roughly the slot value of the #78 pick. Interestingly, he played his high school baseball in the same corner of the southern Los Angeles suburbs as current Braves catcher Travis d'Arnaud, and he has a chance to succeed him in Atlanta. Montgomery is extremely well built at 6'4" and effortlessly produces above average power with a pretty simple right handed swing. He has performed well in showcase settings and continued to impress against strong Southern California competition this spring, with improving bat to ball ability that convinced the Braves he will tap that power in pro ball. He gets nice carry on his throws down to second base and should be able to control the running game, though his glovework is more so-so. It's tough to remain behind the plate at that size, but it's been done before and by giving him this much money, the Braves likely believe he has it in him. And as a fallback plan, they must believe enough in the bat to see a productive hitter even if he's forced to first base or a corner outfield spot. He moves fairly well at first base and could provide some defensive value there.

6-191: RHP Ethan Bagwell, Collinsville HS [IL] {video}
Slot value: $312,800. Signing bonus: $822,500 ($509,700 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #231. Baseball America: #362.
The Braves went over slot again to land another prep in the sixth round, luring Ethan Bagwell away from a Missouri commitment for third round money. Bagwell is a trajectory prospect who needs considerable work, but who is trending hard in the right direction. After topping out around 93-94 last year, he hit 97 in his very first inning of the 2024 season and has consistently operated in the low 90's, sometimes a tick above. The fastball has nice hop up in the zone, too, and he can sink it down in the zone. Bagwell's slider is average, having taken a step forward this spring but still lacking true power and finish, while his changeup is coming along but needs further refinement. The St. Louis-area native has long struggled with command, and while he has smoothed out his delivery a bit lately, it's still a question mark going forward. The 6'4" righty has the size and frame to start long term, but a combination of conditioning, continued refinement of his delivery, and the development of his secondaries will get him there. The Braves love the size and trajectory and feel that he can continue to improve his game in leaps and bounds.

8-251: RHP Logan Samuels, Montevallo {video}
Slot value: $205,300. Signing bonus: $7,500 ($197,800 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Logan Samuels was a senior sign who took home a paltry $7,500 signing bonus, the third lowest of any Braves draftee, and he also represents a bit of a local pick. Samuels, a lifelong Braves fan, grew up in Winfield, Alabama, a small town in northwestern Alabama about halfway between Birmingham and Tupelo. From there, he spent four years at Division II Montevallo, a small state school about thirty miles south of Birmingham. There he has gradually worked his way into the Falcons' rotation, though with a career 5.45 ERA he has never posted dominant numbers. Still, he is the highest draft pick in the history of the University of Montevallo. He has a low 90's fastball that touches 94 with nice riding action from a loose delivery. I have not found any information on his secondary stuff. Samuels has had so-so command throughout his career but really improved in that department in 2024, dropping his walk rate from 13.0% over his first three seasons to just 5.4% this year. Long and lanky at 6'4", 170 pounds, the Braves will like his still-projectable frame and athletic delivery, with the hope that he can add some power to his stuff while maintaining his newfound command. If nothing else, it's a nice story for the Alabama kid to don the jersey of his favorite team, but of course Samuels and the Braves have bigger plans than that.

11-341: OF Patrick Clohisy, Saint Louis {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #397.
After a string of dirt cheap senior signs to end day two, the Braves went back to real signing bonuses in the eleventh round and began day three with a fun bat. Patrick Clohisy started out at Purdue, but started just one game in his two seasons there and transferred back home to Saint Louis, where all he did was hit .353/.461/.596 over two seasons. He's an extremely professional hitter that rarely chases and makes plenty of contact, using a quick left handed swing to gash line drives around the field. Undersized at 5'10", there's a little bit of pop in the bat as well with exit velocities that could indicate average raw power in the tank. More of a contact-oriented hitter, he prefers to stay within himself and hit line drives, but it would be interesting if the Braves found a way to help him turn on the a ball a little more often. He's played mostly center and right field at Saint Louis but has stolen 48 bases over the past two seasons. He'll turn 23 this offseason and has been assigned to Low A Augusta, but has not seen game action just yet.

14-431: 1B Mason Guerra, Oregon State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #342.
Mason Guerra gives the Braves a high pedigree name after going a bit more off the grid for a while – he's their first pick from a Power Five program since Nebraska's Brett Sears in the seventh round and their first to make any real money (Sears signed for $12,500) since Miami's Herick Hernandez in the fourth round. Guerra was a fairly well-known prospect out of the Portland-area high school ranks in 2021, but made it to campus at Oregon State and put up a massive sophomore season in 2023. However, he hasn't been able to build his stock any more in the calendar year since. He hit .273/.371/.351 on the Cape last summer, showcasing a strong approach but not getting to his power, then struggled to just a .243/.360/.467 line (including .207/.321/.370 in Pac-12 play) that looks worse when you consider the hitter-friendly environment of college baseball. Still, there is a lot to go off. Guerra has easy plus raw power, perhaps even plus-plus, with the ability to send some absolute moonshots out into the parking lot. He's also a pretty disciplined hitter that had no problem adjusting up to Cape pitching last summer, and the transition to pro pitching should be easier for him than most other Braves draftees. The main drawback here is bat to ball, as Guerra struck out nearly a quarter of the time in 2024 and swung through too many hittable pitches in the zone. The swing can get a little long with some bat wrap in the load, so the Braves may look to shorten him up a little bit. Well built at 6'3", he's plenty strong enough to continue to tap his power even in that case. Guerra has mostly played first base for Oregon State but he has a chance to play third base or a corner outfield spot if he can maintain his quickness and refine his actions, and his strong arm will help. He looks to be a power hitting bench or platoon bat for the Braves in the long run and has joined Patrick Clohisy at Low A Augusta, but similarly has not played yet.

20-611: OF Eric Hartman, Holy Trinity Academy [AB] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $337,500 ($187,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The Braves had a little bonus money left over at the end of the draft, so they popped one more prep here with their last pick and gave him sixth round money to eschew a Michigan commitment. Nine years ago, the Braves drafted Michael Soroka in the first round out of high school in Calgary, Alberta, and this year they grabbed Eric Hartman out of nearby Okotoks, Alberta. A skinny kid at 6'1", he employs a flat, line drive-oriented left handed swing that he uses to make consistent contact around the field. The frame has space to add some strength and if he starts elevating the ball more, he could grow into fringy power. Hartman is also a very good runner with a shot to play center field. He's well regarded in the Canadian amateur baseball scene and has performed consistently at high profile events up north, and the Braves hope he can blossom into a leadoff-type profile. Hartman is young, having only turned 18 in June, and may take longer to work through the system.

Thursday, July 27, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Atlanta Braves

Full list of draftees

I love what the Braves did here with their draft. I typically prefer drafting bats early then pivoting to pitchers, but the Braves develop pitching well and I think they picked up three really interesting arms with their first three picks. Hurston Waldrep rivals Paul Skenes for the best stuff in the country, Cade Kuehler also has first round stuff at his best, and Drue Hackenberg is a fascinating selection that it looks like the Braves are willing to get creative with. In terms of the bats, Atlanta put a priority on hitters with strong batted ball data and more or less complete profiles at the plate, with fifth rounder Isaiah Drake providing notable upside.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-24: RHP Hurston Waldrep, Florida {video}
Slot value: $3.27 million. Signing bonus: $3 million ($273,000 below slot value).
My rank: #12. MLB Pipeline: #19. Baseball America: #18. Prospects Live: #17.
The Braves started off with a bang, getting the man who in my opinion was the second best college pitcher in the entire draft towards the back of the first round. Not only that, but they saved $273,000 and got a Georgia boy in the process – not bad at all. Waldrep grew up in the small South Georgia town of Thomasville, about a dozen miles north of the Florida line near Tallahassee. He began his career at Southern Miss, where as a sophomore in 2022 he established himself as one of the best pitchers in the country with a 3.20 ERA and a 140/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 innings. Transferring to Florida for his junior season this year, he was a bit less consistent and finished with a 4.16 ERA and a 156/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.2 innings. Waldrep's stuff is nasty, to say the least. His explosive fastball sits in the mid 90's, touching 99 with riding action that makes it at least a plus pitch. He spins two banger breaking balls in a curveball and a slider, with the former showing hammer action in the low 80's and the latter acting like a short, hard cutter in the upper 80's. The showstopper, though is a plus-plus splitter that really took a step forward with Florida this spring and might be an 80 grade pitch when he locates it. It doesn't just die out of his hand; it undergoes a spectacular, cinematic demise at the last second as it falls off the face of the Earth. Together, it gives Paul Skenes a legitimate run for his money for the best pure stuff in all of college baseball. The issue, however, has been command. The 6'2" righty is much more control over command, pounding the strike zone but often leaving his pitches over the plate. He's a powderkeg of athleticism with an uptempo delivery, but he'll need to channel that energy into a little more precision going forward. One reason scouts gave for his inconsistent performance this spring was also predictable pitch usage, with Florida having him throw too many fastballs behind in the count and too many breaking balls ahead in the count, making his stuff play down a tick. He was hot late in the season and in three NCAA Tournament starts against UConn, South Carolina, and Oral Roberts, he allowed just two runs on fifteen hits and seven walks while striking out 37 over 21 innings before faltering a little bit in his final start against eventual national champion LSU.

2-59: RHP Drue Hackenberg, Virginia Tech {video}
Slot value: $1.37 million. Signing bonus: $2 million ($628,200 above slot value).
My rank: #180. MLB Pipeline: #200. Baseball America: #148. Prospects Live: #195.
I'm fascinated by this pick. Drue Hackenberg was widely expected to go somewhere in the middle to back of day two, but not only did the Braves pop him in the second round, they signed him for a massive bonus close to the slot value for the #43 overall pick. Sometimes there is a massive disconnect between how the public boards view a player and how teams (or a single team) view them, and that was the case here. Obviously, by ranking him #180 on my board (which was still ahead of both MLB Pipeline and Prospects Live), I was part of the group sleeping on Hack, but the Braves' selection made me think about him in a different way and I see what they were getting at. He immediately established himself as a legitimate pitching prospect with a strong freshman season at Virginia Tech (3.30 ERA, 87/19 K/BB in 92.2 IP), but took a step backward as a draft eligible sophomore this year (5.70 ERA, 99/26 K/BB in 85.1 IP). On the surface, and I'm guilty of looking at the surface, Hackenberg is a fairly ordinary arm with ordinary stuff. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out at 95 with running action that creates weak contact. His slider flashes above average with good downer action, playing well when he locates it down in the zone, while his changeup is a third fringy pitch. He pounds the strike zone with above average control but he got hit when he left stuff over the plate, so the command is closer to average. So what makes Drue Hackenberg special? First of all, look at his family. Both of his parents were Division I athletes, with dad a quarterback at UVA and mom a volleyball player at Lehigh. His oldest brother, Christian, was the starting quarterback at Penn State and was a second round draft pick to the NFL in 2016. The next brother, Brandon, was a first round pick into MLS after playing soccer at Penn State. Yet another brother, Adam, played baseball at Clemson and is currently playing in AA for the White Sox. Drue clearly has great genetics and is a much better athlete on the mound than you might expect, immediately opening up opportunities for the Braves to get creative with his development and pushing his ceiling much higher. He was also the victim of tough batted ball luck, as he ran a good strikeout (24.8%) and great walk (6.5%) rate in 2023 despite his high ERA. The Braves clearly see an opportunity here to break him down a little bit, play with the delivery and pitch shapes, and turn the 6'2" righty into legitimate impact starter. I'm fascinated to see how that goes.

2C-70: RHP Cade Kuehler, Campbell {video}
Slot value: $1.05 million. Signing bonus: $1.05 million ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #46. MLB Pipeline: #59. Baseball America: #53. Prospects Live: #43.
The Braves got tremendous value here in the second compensation round, picking up a very similar pitcher to Hurston Waldrep minus the devastating splitter. Cade Kuehler has been a big part of the Campbell pitching staff for three years now, and he posted his best year yet in 2023 with a 2.71 ERA and a 91/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 innings. The stuff is huge, as you would expect with the Waldrep comparison. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, topping out around 97 in longer outings and touching 99 in short stints, with exceptional riding action that makes it at least a plus pitch. He rips off a hard cutter/slider in the upper 80's that misses a ton of bats, while his curveball has more depth and his changeup gives him a fourth big league pitch. The 6' righty is a built similarly to Waldrep if a couple inches shorter, though aside from the splitter, he differs from his first round counterpart when it comes to the delivery. While Waldrep has a compact, uptempo delivery, Kuehler begins with a high leg kick while twisting back towards second base, leading to a long trunk rotation that he simultaneously combines with very short arm action. The result is that he hides the ball extremely well and creates plenty of deception, but it also leads to inconsistent command. That will be the main point of emphasis in his development and if he can take even minor steps forward there, he has a chance to be a real impact starter. That's a great get for just over a million dollars.

3-94: 3B Sabin Ceballos, Oregon {video}
Slot value: $714,100. Signing bonus: $597,500 ($116,600 below slot value).
My rank: #142. MLB Pipeline: #152. Baseball America: #206. Prospects Live: #138.
The Braves finally selected their first bat here with their fourth pick, making Sabin Ceballos the first Puerto Rican drafted this year as well. Ceballos began his career at San Jacinto JC in Texas, then transferred to Oregon for his junior year and slashed .333/.426/.643 with 18 home runs and a 36/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games. It's a well-rounded profile at the plate, with strong plate discipline that helped him walk nearly as much as he struck out in his first year of Division I baseball. He prefers fastballs, but can do damage against breaking balls as well and should continue to progress in that regard. Well built at 6'3", 225 pounds, he shows off above average power in games, especially to the pull side, from a clean right handed swing. The pressure will be on the bat, because for now he's a fringy defender. Ceballos is a well below average runner that doesn't move well laterally, making third base a challenge going forward and likely ruling out the outfield as well, though he can charge the ball fairly well at the hot corner. He likely moves to first base, though he does have some experience catching and that could be a fun experiment. Despite the defensive limitations, it's tough to find this kind of a complete offensive profile for just $600,000, especially given that he's young for the class and won't turn 21 until August. He has a chance to be an everyday first baseman that flirts with 20 home run seasons while posting solid on-base percentages. So far, he's picked up two singles in four at bats in the Florida Complex League, also drawing five walks in three games.

4-126: RHP Garrett Baumann, Hagerty HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $521,800. Signing bonus: $747,500 ($245,700 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #145. Baseball Reference: #263. Prospects Live: #177.
It took a few rounds longer than usual, but the Braves got their high school pitcher, giving Garrett Baumann mid third round money to sign away from a UCF commitment here near the end of the fourth round. He's a big, tall right hander at 6'8", 245 pounds, and the Braves see a potential workhorse starting pitcher. He presently sits in the low 90's with his running fastball, touching as high as 96-97 at best, and he should creep closer to that peak velocity more consistently as he progresses. He spins a sweeping slider that has nice shape but lacks power and finish at this point, so tightening that up will be a major point of contention. The Orlando-area native's changeup is fairly advanced for a high schooler, coming out of his hand similar to his fastball before dropping out. Already very physical, he repeats his delivery well and fills up the strike zone, giving him every opportunity to become an innings eating #3/#4 starter. Baumann is a little old for the class, turning 19 in August, but aside from the breaking ball he's pretty advanced as far as preps go and you don't find that kind of size every day. As a fun fact, he comes from the same Hagerty High School program that produced current Braves infielder/prospect Vaughn Grissom as well as Tigers outfielder Riley Greene.

5-162: OF Isaiah Drake, North Atlanta HS [GA] {video}
Slot value: $367,500. Signing bonus: $747,500 ($380,000 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #215. Prospects Live: #297.
The Braves have never been shy about picking high school outfielders in their own backyard, and have previously had success with Jason Heyward (Henry County HS, McDounough), Drew Waters (Etowah HS, Woodstock), and Michael Harris (Stockbridge HS), with 2022 draftee Christian Jackson (Dutchtown HS, Hampton) perhaps next up for a breakout. They went back to the well again with Isaiah Drake, who was teammates with Red Sox third rounder Antonio Anderson this year at North Atlanta High School in Buckhead. Despite standing just 5'10", he's packed with power and athleticism uncommon in kids of any size, and it's apparent just by looking at him. Drake shows off plus raw power in batting practice, with a ferocious left handed swing that he can tone down in games and still generate easy bat speed. The hit tool has long been a question, with a raw approach at the plate and the tendency to get home run conscious, but he boosted his stock considerably with a strong showing in the MLB Draft League after his spring season ended, slashing .333/.486/.593 with a home run and more walks (8) than strikeouts (5) in eleven games. If that small sample is for real, then he could end up being a steal here in the fifth round. Drake is also a plus-plus runner with quick feet and agility, giving him a shot to stick in center field no matter how his glove develops. Like his bat, it's fairly raw, but he does also show off plenty of arm strength out there. Drake is young for the class and only turned 18 in July. His $747,500 signing bonus was also the same as fourth rounder Garrett Baumann, which in turn was already above slot value, meaning Drake's bonus was more than double the slot value and was enough to keep him from a Georgia Tech commitment. He's off to a bit of slow start in the FCL, with six strikeouts and a walk in nine plate appearances.

6-189: RHP Lucas Braun, Cal State Northridge {video}
Slot value: $292,700. Signing bonus: $347,500 ($54,800 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Lucas Braun went unranked on all major public boards, but that didn't stop the Braves from giving him their final over slot bonus of the draft. He spent two years at the University of San Diego but didn't pitch much, so he transferred closer to home at Cal State Northridge and was a central piece of their rotation in 2022 and 2023, combining for a 3.97 ERA and a 177/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 165.2 innings. The fastball sits in the low 90's with running action from a low slot, sneaking into the mid 90's at peak and playing up because he hides the ball well with short arm action. He spins both a slider and a curveball, though the latter can hump out of his hand at times and both play better when he keeps them down. Braun also has great feel for a changeup, giving him a true four pitch mix. The 6' righty isn't overly physical but repeats his delivery well and pounds the strike zone with solid command, giving him every opportunity to remain a starter at the next level. Though he's a senior sign, he is young for his class and therefore younger than some of the older juniors in the class, not turning 22 until August.

8-249: RHP Cory Wall, William & Mary {video}
Slot value: $190,300. Signing bonus: $47,500 ($142,800 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
This is a true sleeper pick, and I have to credit draft writer and current Cubs intern Mason McRae for being all over Cory Wall leading up to the draft. Wall spent four years at Fordham but after working regularly as a swingman in 2019 and 2020, injuries limited him to just eight innings combined between 2021 and 2022. He ended up at William & Mary as a grad transfer in 2023 and had his best year yet, posting a 3.98 ERA and a 63/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings. Wall sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping around 96 and getting nice riding action. He shows great feel to spin both a curveball and a slider, with the former showing deeper drop and the latter getting under bats with late two-plane action. Wall also shows an above average changeup that dives away from left handed batters late, making for a big league arsenal. The big, 6'4" righty looks plenty durable (though he did have injury trouble at Fordham) and repeats his delivery well, leading to above average command. It's a really complete package for a pitcher, with the only drawback (and it's an important one) being his age, as he turned 23 back in March and won't begin his first full pro season until he's 24. The ceiling is a bit limited as a back-end starter but he should move quickly to fulfill that role should he stay healthy.

11-339: OF Jace Grady, Dallas Baptist {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #487. Prospects Live: unranked.
Jace Grady earned top two round buzz early in the 2022 draft cycle, but his junior year at Dallas Baptist was more good than great (.310/.419/.509, 10 HR) and he opted to return to school and try again. The end result was an almost identical season (.309/.416/.534, 12 HR), though he did drop his strikeout rate from 21.7% to 14.1% while slightly increasing his walk rate from 14.4% to 15.1%. Grady shows some power to the pull side and has tapped it consistently in games over the past couple years, though he's undersized at 5'9" and he'll likely top out around 10-15 home runs per season at best. His uptick in game power from 2021 to 2022 came with an increased strikeout rate, but he dropped it back down this spring while maintaining that power, which is a nice step forward for the profile. Overall, the switch hitter is very disciplined at the plate and gets on base at a high clip, where he used his above average speed and instincts to steal 65 bases in 171 games over the past three seasons. At this point, he's unlikely to stick in center field full time and actually played right field for the Patriots, and with a fringy arm he may ultimately be destined to left field, where he doesn't quite hit for enough impact to profile as an every day player. It's a nice fourth outfielder profile, though, with on-base skills, some ambush power, and enough speed to play center field from time to time if needed. He was on the younger side for the class last year so despite being a senior sign, he only turned 22 in May. So far, he has two doubles in six at bats in the FCL, adding three walks in three games.

13-399: 3B Will Verdung, Itawamba JC [MS] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
It's not every year that the Mississippi Braves get to roster one of their own, but Will Verdung will hope to make that happen as he works his way up the minor league rungs over the next couple of seasons. Verdung grew up in Corinth in the northeast corner of Mississippi, then played two years of JuCo ball down at Itawamba JC in Fulton. He was a one man wrecking crew for the Indians, slashing .401/.496/.738 with 25 home runs and a 25/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games between his two seasons there. There isn't a ton of public information on him, but he's a 6'2" right handed hitter with a strong, clean swing albeit with a bit of a hitch at the start. He terrorized JuCo pitching across the Deep South with a disciplined approach that saw him strike out just 5.4% of the time in 2023 while walking at a nice 14.5% clip. Young for the class having just turned 20 in June, he has a chance to sneak up prospect boards if his power and plate discipline translate smoothly to pro ball, which is quite a jump. There is no public information or video on his defense, but he was drafted as a third baseman. He homered in his first professional at bat in the FCL, and overall is 3-7 with one strikeout and two walks through three games.

17-519: OF Kade Kern, Ohio State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #198. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #325. Prospects Live: #115.
This is really nice value for the Braves in the seventeenth round, where they got a legitimate hitter who may simply be a late bloomer. Kade Kern has been a bit of an enigmatic hitter at Ohio State, with a career .302/.382/.482 slash line, 17 home runs, and a 115/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 games, but those strong numbers also include a dreadful 0-31 stretch during his sophomore season. He also struggled in a large sample in the Cape Cod League (.194/.283/.269, 30.3% strikeout rate over 46 games), and it's hard to know what to make of him at this point. What we do know, though, is that the talent is there. Kern packs plenty of strength into his 6' frame, with above average power and strong ability to elevate the ball with authority. He does a great job of getting extended through the zone, though his right handed swing can get long and does lead to swing and miss, including close to a 20% strikeout rate in 2023. His struggles on the Cape compound the concern of him being able to tap his power in pro ball, but if he can tighten up that swing a little, he's disciplined enough and plenty strong enough to do so. Kern is also a solid runner with a strong arm that could be above average in right field. He profiles as a potential platoon bat if everything clicks. It hasn't quite yet, as he's hitless in nine at bats in the FCL with one strikeout in three games.

Saturday, August 6, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: Atlanta Braves

Full list of draftees

Some teams prefer to play the draft straightforward, but the Braves went all out mixing and matching bonus sizes, saving nearly $850,000 on first round pick Owen Murphy and going nearly a million dollars above slot value on seventh rounder Adam Maier in the most extreme examples. It didn't stop there, with seven additional picks aside from Murphy and Maier who signed for at least $100,000 more or less than slot value. That included the last three picks of day two, who got a measly $2,500 each so that Atlanta could afford those massive over slot bonuses to Murphy and sixth rounder Seth Keller (more than $400,000 above slot). Even the guys who signed "at slot" were part of the game, as Atlanta actually took $2,500 off every signing bonus on the draft's first two days regardless of its relation to the slot value, instead counting the $2,500 contingency bonus each player automatically receives (which does not count against the bonus pool) as part of the signing bonus. All these games helped them land a class that included three of the most talented high school pitchers in the draft with their first three picks, in addition to a college position player class that leaned heavily on power. Interestingly, many teams factor age relative to class into their draft models, but the Braves went the opposite direction and drafted numerous players that were either on the older side for their class, or in some cases, a full year older than the rest of their academic class.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-20: RHP Owen Murphy, Riverside Brookfield HS [IL]. My rank: #32.
Slot value: $3.41 million. Signing bonus: $2.56 million ($849,200 below slot value).
Anyone who saw Owen Murphy pitch this spring probably had a feeling he was going to be drafted much higher than the industry consensus, and he was. Considered a second to third round prospect entering the spring, he just dominated the Chicago area on both sides of the ball and pushed himself into the first round conversation. An accomplished hitter in addition to a pitcher, he shows advanced discipline in the box and elevates the ball with authority, but his future is certainly on the mound. There, Murphy sits in the low 90's with his fastball, getting up to around 95 with a ton of riding action from a low release height with good extension. It's one of the flatter fastballs out there and just ate up Chicago area bats this spring. He plays off that fastball with a tight slider that flashes plus and also shows well with a more traditional, top to bottom curveball and a changeup. The 6'1" righty is very athletic on the mound with a clean, efficient delivery that should continue to add velocity, and he fills up the strike zone consistently. It's a pretty complete profile for a teenager, one that could move relatively quickly through the minors and be MLB ready at a young age. Committed to Notre Dame, he was drafted high enough that he was willing to take a significant under slot deal that the Braves partially redeployed on...

CBA-35: RHP JR Ritchie, Bainbridge Island HS [WA]. My rank: #56.
Slot value: $2.4 million. Signing bonus: $2.2 million ($196,800 above slot value).
One of the more well-known names in this year's prep class, JR Ritchie left his mark on some of the best hitters in the 2021 draft class as a rising junior in the summer of 2020, then established himself as a potential first round pick the following summer. Ritchie's spring was a bit more up and down, but that didn't deter the Braves who gave him nearly as large a bonus as first round pick Owen Murphy. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, getting up to 97 with some late hop, while his plus slider is one of the better breakers in the draft at its best. He also mixes in a solid curveball and changeup, and when he's going right, locates all four pitches well for a teenage pitcher. The 6'2" righty is a great athlete that moves extremely well on the mound, getting great extension towards the plate and repeating his delivery well. He's old for the class and turned 19 back in June, but he has a great head on his shoulders, really seems to understand the development process, and is advanced enough that the age isn't a huge issue. There's definitive upside as an impact starting pitcher, and he could reach that ceiling sooner rather than later. He was committed to UCLA but instead joins the Braves here.

2-57: RHP Cole Phillips, Boerne HS [TX]. My rank: #67.
Slot value: $1.31 million. Signing bonus: $1.5 million ($190,200 above slot value).
Cole Phillips was an interesting prospect last summer, but took off in the spring when he added about five miles per hour to his fastball. Unfortunately, that helium was short lived, as he blew out his elbow in April and required Tommy John surgery. Given that he's already extremely old for a high school senior, having turned 19 in May, he now may not be back on a mound until he's 20 years old. For that reason, it makes sense that he signed here for a big bonus rather than heading to Arkansas with just one season to prove himself before becoming draft eligible again in 2024. The Braves are buying into a huge fastball, one that sat in the mid to upper 90's this spring and touched 101 with riding action, something you just don't see from high schoolers. His main secondary is a slider that flashes plus, but it's inconsistent and flattens out regularly. Phillips also flips in a curveball and changeup, giving him a full arsenal to work with once he gets healthy and the Braves get to work on refining everything. The 6'3" righty gets down the mound very well and maintained solid control even after his velocity took off, with plenty of athleticism and strength that he capably harnesses. There is a huge ceiling here for the San Antonio-area product, with the potential for a triple digit fastball accompanied by legitimate offspeed stuff and solid command, but he's going to get a very late start on working towards that ceiling due to his injury and age.

2C-76: RHP Blake Burkhalter, Auburn. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $860,100. Signing bonus: $647,500 ($212,600 below slot value).
Blake Burkhalter was the first player drafted this year that was not on my list, but I was aware of him and he was on the short list of guys I would have looked more into if I had more time before the draft. There always has to be a cut off, right? The first collegian drafted by the Braves this year, Burkhalter is a semi-local kid who grew up in the Lower Alabama town of Dothan before heading north to Auburn for college. He's gotten better and better throughout his time there, and this year he was right in the middle of Auburn's College World Series run with a 3.69 ERA and a 71/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 46.1 innings out of the bullpen. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and can reach back for 97-98 at will, coming in with riding life that makes it very tough to square up on its own. You can't just sit on the heat, though, as he frequently pitches off a hard, nasty cutter around 90 with sweep and downer action. It's one of the better two pitch mixes in college baseball, and he does add a decent changeup to keep left handed hitters off his fastball. The 6' righty is a pure reliever at this point because he throws with some effort, loading deep into his plant leg before exploding towards the mound. He initially struggled with command earlier in his Auburn career but has gotten better in that regard, now looking fringe average – plenty good enough in one inning sets where he can get ugly swings off his fastball/cutter mix. If he can keep that control together at least for the most part, he could race to the big leagues and be up by next year.

3-96: C Drake Baldwin, Missouri State. My rank: #113.
Slot value: $635,800. Signing bonus: $633,300 ($2,500 below slot value).
Like Owen Murphy, Drake Baldwin is a guy that felt like he would be drafted a bit higher than the industry consensus, and that was the case again. Baldwin had a massive breakout year at Missouri State this spring, slashing .341/.448/.647 with 19 home runs and an even 37/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games despite coming into the year with just five career home runs. He effectively taps his power from the left side with an uphill swing path that still stays in the zone for a long time, helping him effectively lift the ball with authority and allowing his power to play to all fields. He doesn't swing and miss much, especially for a guy with an ISO (isolated slugging) above .300, with a patient approach at the plate that translates into its fair share of walks as well. His defense is average, in need of a little refinement if he wants to stick behind the plate but it should be fully doable. The balanced all-around profile gives the upside of an every day catcher that could hit 20+ home runs a year with solid on-base percentages, with a more median projection of a very solid backup that can be a value add on both sides of the ball. So far in the minors, he has picked up three hits (including two doubles) in five at bats in the rookie-level FCL.

4-125: 3B David McCabe, Charlotte. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $478,900. Signing bonus: $476,400 ($2,500 below slot value).
In the fourth round, the Braves picked up a bat that put up some of the best numbers in college baseball, with David McCabe slashing .386/.513/.784 with 16 home runs and a 28/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games at Charlotte. He stands out for easy plus raw power that he taps consistently in games, having crushed 30 home runs in just 79 games over the past two seasons and slugging .760 along the way. He finds the barrel extremely consistently no matter where in the zone he's pitched, and he handles offspeed stuff well as well. Previously an aggressive hitter that liked to jump on pitches early in the count, he was much more patient in 2022 and watched his walk rate climb from 9.6% to 20.5%, pushing his on-base percentage above .500. McCabe is a big guy at a listed 6'4", 230 pounds, and although he manned third base for the 49ers, he'll likely move over to first base pretty quickly in pro ball with well below average speed. It's a pretty similar overall package to Tyler Locklear, who signed with the Mariners in the second round for more than double McCabe's bonus, though McCabe is nearly a year older, doesn't have the Cape Cod League track record, and isn't *quite* as elite with his exit velocities. Still, the Toronto-area native has a chance to slug his way towards an every day role in Atlanta if he can make enough contact against high end velocity. He went hitless in his first game in the FCL.

5-155: 3B Ignacio Alvarez, Riverside JC. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $357,400. Signing bonus: $497,500 ($140,100 above slot value).
Ignacio Alvarez was very much an under the radar pick, as he wasn't ranked by any major publications after a strong season at Riverside City College in which he slashed .370/.494/.582 with five home runs and a 16/36 strikeout to walk ratio across 48 games. A true freshman, Alvarez only turned 19 in April and is barely older than high school picks JR Ritchie and Cole Phillips, but took extremely well to JuCo pitching with just a 6.9% strikeout rate and a 15.6% walk rate. He's a very disciplined hitter for his age, controlling the strike zone with ease against mostly older pitching this spring while also showing some power potential from a strong 6' frame. Most of his power went to the gaps in 2022, but if he can get a little better at lifting the ball and a little more accurate with his barrel, he has the pitch selection ability and the pure strength to do real damage. A third baseman, he should be able to stick there with a strong arm and an average glove. Alvarez has picked up two hits in six at bats so far in the FCL.

6-185: RHP Seth Keller, Hanover HS [VA]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $275,100. Signing bonus: $697,500 ($422,400 above slot value).
Levi Huesman was the more famous pitcher at Hanover High School in the Richmond area, but Seth Keller wound up being the first one drafted out of that rotation. Undersized like Huesman, Keller has seen his velocity tick up this spring and now sits in the low 90's, touching 95-96 at best, with running life from a low three quarters arm slot. He flips in a solid slider with some sweep, though it can be inconsistent, and he has solid feel for a changeup with nice fading action to the arm side. Keller throws with some effort and is listed at just 5'10", with fringy command that will need to take a step forward to stick in the rotation. The Braves are buying into the youth (he only turned 18 in May), athleticism, and unique fastball traits that could make him a late inning weapon or a solid starting pitcher with some refinement, and it cost them more than $400,000 above slot value to sign him away from an Old Dominion commitment.

7-215: RHP Adam Maier, Oregon. My rank: #119.
Slot value: $215,400. Signing bonus: $1.2 million ($982,100 above slot value).
This was a surprise pick, because most in the industry believed Adam Maier was destined to end up back on campus at Oregon in 2023. A transfer from the University of British Columbia, Maier raised his profile with a 4.55 ERA and a 27/9 strikeout to walk ratio in the Cape Cod League, then was off to a hot start for Oregon with a 4.02 ERA and a 19/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 15.2 innings through three starts this year. Unfortunately, he went down with an elbow injury in March and though he so far has been able to avoid Tommy John surgery, he hasn't pitched since. Given that he's the age of a college sophomore, it looked like he was going to head back to school, put in a full, healthy season in the rotation, and still be age-appropriate for the 2023 draft. Now, he'll take his impressive raw stuff to Atlanta after signing for late second round money. Maier sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to 95-96, and the pitch stands out for its hard arm side run and sink from a lower arm slot. It should be a ground ball machine in pro ball. His best pitch, however, is a plus-plus slider with elite spin rates and hard, late snap that leaves hitters shaking their heads. He adds a solid changeup that plays well off his fastball, giving him one of the better three pitch mixes on the west coast. If he puts it all together, there is definitive impact starter upside, but there is a lot of work to do. Beyond getting healthy, which he seems on track to do in plenty of time for the 2023 season, the skinny 6' righty needs to prove his durability as a starting pitcher given that he has very rarely been on the mound for long stretches of time. He'll also need to improve his command of his offspeeds, which is a bit behind his fastball command, and prove that he can hold that over extended innings. Given the massive signing bonus, it's clear the Braves believe that will happen, and if not, his three pitch mix would be nasty out of the bullpen.

9-275: 2B Cory Acton, Georgia. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $159,800. Signing bonus: $2,500 ($157,300 below slot value).
Though he's not a native Georgian, Cory Acton gives the Braves a Georgia Bulldog to throw into the system for some hometown flair and more importantly, massive cost savings with a minuscule signing bonus. Acton was a well known draft name out of American Heritage High School back in 2018, but made it to campus at Florida and spent three years in Gainesville, where he started as an underclassman but lost playing time as a junior in 2021. He transferred to Georgia in 2022 and put up a solid season in Athens, slashing .266/.394/.401 with five home runs and a 46/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. Acton is a patient, professional hitter that has been around the block more than a few times in the SEC, consistently working good at bats against high quality pitching. He has a clean swing from the left side, making a lot of contact by selecting good pitches to hit and producing some pull side power when he turns on one. Already 23 years old, the South Florida native should take quickly to professional pitching and could work his way to the upper minors rather quickly, though his overall ceiling is very limited. Having played all over the infield in college, primarily second and third base, he projects mostly as roster a roster filler that can slot in at a few different positions and hold his own against upper minors pitching, with a chance to become a bench bat in Atlanta if he taps a little more power. That pro career has already gotten started, with one hit in five at bats as well as two walks in the FCL.

19-575: OF Christian Jackson, Dutchtown HS [GA]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Back in 2019, the Braves drafted a kid named Michael Harris in the third round out of Stockbridge High School, and they went back to Henry County in the 19th round here to take Christian Jackson. Also a Stockbridge native, Jackson attended Dutchtown High School a few exits farther south on I-75 and will now hope to make the trip thirty miles north to Truist Park one day. Jackson is extremely physical at 6'2", 185 pounds, showing off plus speed and improving raw power from the right side. His swing can get a little rigid and will need some smoothing out in pro ball, but he's young and has plenty of time to get things ironed out in pro ball. Jackson played a lot of infield in high school and showed off impressive arm strength from shortstop, but the Braves drafted him as an outfielder where he more effectively deploys his speed and arm. Originally committed to Georgia State, he was always going to stay in the ATL and now he'll hope to join Harris in Atlanta soon and has already taken his first step, picking up one single in four at bats in the FCL. 

Tuesday, July 27, 2021

2021 MLB Draft Review: Atlanta Braves

Full list of draftees

The Braves played this draft about as straight up as you tend to see in the modern game, hovering around the slot values for most of their signings aside from a big over slot on AJ Smith-Shawver in the seventh round. First rounder Ryan Cusick obviously comes with the most upside, while second rounder Spencer Schwellenbach is the interesting two-way talent and third and fifth rounders Dylan Dodd and Luke Waddell figure to be the quick movers. There's sneaky upside in fourth and sixth rounders Cal Conley and Justyn-Henry Malloy, while Malloy, Waddell, and seventeenth rounder Tyler Tolve were all taken from ATL schools. I don't have any one pick that I loved in particular here, so I'll go with Malloy as my modest favorite.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-24: RHP Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest. My rank: #28.
Another year, another Massachusetts-born Wake Forest arm in the back of the first round. A year after taking Jared Shuster with the 25th overall pick, the Braves went back to Winston-Salem to bring Ryan Cusick down I-85 to the ATL. This is a really interesting arm who has a chance to do some really big things in Atlanta, but will take some work to get there. A product of the same Avon Old Farms boarding school in Connecticut that produced George Springer (via UConn) and 2020 Orioles second round pick Hudson Haskin (via Tulane), Cusick is a massive 6'6" righty that owns the fastest pitch ever recorded in college baseball (thrown to first overall pick Henry Davis no less). That fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and he holds that premium velocity deep into games, and the famous Henry Davis pitch came in at 101.7 on the Trackman gun. The Boston-area native also drops in a power curveball that looks like a true plus pitch at its best, and he can get some nice fade on his changeup as well. The problem for Cusick has been consistency, which would explain why his 4.24 ERA and 108/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 innings this year don't look as overpowering as you'd expect given the stuff described above. While he generally does a good job of filling up the strike zone, he's shown little feel to hit his spots within it and has innings every now and again where he can't find the zone at all. His release point has wandered on the fastball, while his curve can flatten out at times and the changeup plays below average despite its movement because he struggles to locate it. There is a ton of upside to unlock here, and the Braves do a good job with pitching in general, so you could be seeing a future ace. I feel like we say every drafted pitcher's stuff could "play up in the bullpen at worst," but Cusick could especially thrive in that role given his problems with consistency. He signed for $2.7 million, which was about $130,000 below slot value.

2-59: RHP Spencer Schwellenbach, Nebraska. My rank: #67.
The top two-way player in this draft (unless you count Bubba Chandler, who was primarily viewed as a pitcher), Spencer Schwellenbach will be a fun follow for that reason alone. He hit .284/.403/.459 with six home runs and a 44/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games this season, while also posting a 0.57 ERA and a 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings coming out of the Nebraska bullpen. Schwellenbach was announced as a pitcher and I'm not sure whether the Braves plan to let him hit, but regardless, I do prefer the arm. He actually didn't pitch until this spring due to elbow problems, but the stuff was electric when he finally got on the mound. The 6'1" righty ran his fastball up to 99 and sat in the mid 90's out of the bullpen, adding a potentially plus slider and an above average changeup as well. College relievers have a very poor track record, but Schwellenbach is obviously a very unique case as a full time position player who didn't actually pitch as a freshman or a sophomore. At the plate, the central Michigan native shows a compact swing from the right side that began producing more power in 2021. He's a decent defender at shortstop, but with that arm, he could be an asset at third base. I definitely see more upside with the power stuff on the mound, but he has a chance to be a utility infielder as well with a ceiling of 15-20 home runs per season and solid on-base percentages. As a bonus, he's young for the class and only turned 21 at the end of May. He signed for $1 million, which was about $190,000 below slot value.

3-96: LHP Dylan Dodd, Southeast Missouri State. Unranked.
The Braves opted to save a little more money here, grabbing fifth year senior Dylan Dodd out of Southeast Missouri State. The Kankakee JC transfer had the best year of his career in 2021, posting a 3.17 ERA and a 120/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings, and it wasn't as weak of a schedule as you might expect as it included starts against NCAA Tournament teams Arkansas, South Alabama, and Ole Miss (combined 4.50 ERA, 25/6 K/BB in 18 IP). Dodd's fastball sits in the low 90's, touching 95-96 at best and playing up due to high spin rates. He adds an average curve and slider that get swings and misses when he locates them, as well as an above average changeup. Everything, especially the changeup, plays up because of his above average command. The 6'3" lefty has a chance to stick in the rotation because of that command, in addition to his strong build, despite his otherwise average stuff. However, the fact that he turned 23 in June means the Braves might not be patient enough to let him work his way up in that role, and in the bullpen he could dump one of his breaking balls and focus on the changeup. The eastern Illinois native signed for $122,500, which was $482,300 below slot value.

4-126: SS Cal Conley, Texas Tech. My rank: #138.
This is a performance-based pick. Cal Conley has done nothing but hit since stepping into Texas Tech's lineup in 2020, slashing .339/.405/.600 with 18 home runs and a 49/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 games in his Red Raider career. He's a clearly above average hitter that makes a ton of hard contact, which in turn limits both his strikeouts (15.1% career rate) and his walks (8.9%). The raw power is only average, but he gets to all of it because the switch hitter consistently finds the barrel from both sides of the plate. If scouts were confident he could tap it consistently with wood bats, he would likely have gone in the top 100 picks, but there are some who believe his college home runs will turn into doubles off the wall in pro ball. Even in that case, he will likely hit a lot of them. The Cincinnati-area native is a high-energy player who manned shortstop for Texas Tech, where his range is a bit stretched, but he he'll be just fine at second base or third base. It's a utility floor with a chance to turn into a very productive regular if the power shows up like the Braves think it will. He's slightly old for the class, having turned 22 shortly after the draft, and he remains unsigned with a $451,800 slot value.

5-157: SS Luke Waddell, Georgia Tech. My rank: #200.
Atlanta went local with a Georgia Tech pick here, but Luke Waddell, like Conley, actually grew up in the Cincinnati area. You can critique the lack of upside, but nobody can deny the floor here as Waddell has been one of the ACC's most consistent hitters over the last four years, slashing .308/.407/.432 with twelve home runs and a 62/92 strikeout to walk ratio over 172 games in his Yellow Jacket career. He shows exceptional feel for the strike zone and struck out in just 8% of his plate appearances in his career (and just 5.8% in 2021), consistently putting the ball in play with a contact-oriented, line drive approach. Waddell also upped his stock a bit this year by hitting a career-high eight home runs, but he still projects for below average power in pro ball. Just 5'9", we're probably talking about a utility ceiling at best, but he's a professional hitter through and through who should be able to make the transition to pro ball very easily and move relatively quickly once there. Having turned 23 on the third day of the draft, he was one of the older players taken this year and is just a month younger than Dylan Dodd. He signed for $247,500, which was $85,800 below slot value.

6-187: 1B Justyn-Henry Malloy, Georgia Tech. Unranked.
Here the Braves picked up a second straight Yellow Jacket, but once again, he was attending Georgia Tech from out of state. Justyn Henry-Malloy is a northern New Jersey product who barely played in two years at Vanderbilt, then broke out with the bat this year upon transferring to Georgia Tech, slashing .308/.436/.558 with eleven home runs and a 40/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. Malloy stands out for his patient approach and ability to keep his strikeouts down even when he works into deep counts, something that will undoubtedly be a boon in pro ball when he faces better competition. There is also above average raw power in the tank here, coming from a leveraged right handed swing powered by strong wrists that snap the barrel through the zone. A third baseman at Georgia Tech, he already faced skepticism over his ability to stick there and judging by the fact that the Braves drafted him as a first baseman, it doesn't look like they'll waste any time trying him out there. As a right handed hitting first baseman, the bat will have to carry him, but the puzzle pieces are in place for the 6'2" slugger to outplay his platoon bat projection and hit his way into the everyday lineup. He signed for $297,500, which was $40,100 above slot value.

7-217: RHP AJ Smith-Shawver, Colleyville Heritage HS [TX]. Unranked.
After sticking more or less close to slot value over their first six picks, the Braves made their big over slot splash in the seventh round with high school right hander AJ Smith-Shawver. The Dallas-Fort Worth prep is actually relatively new to pitching, having instead spent most of his focus on playing quarterback and put no focus into pitching until this spring. When he came out pumping low 90's fastballs, his stock soared. The 6'3" righty can touch 95 at his best, but there looks to be much more in the tank as he adds weight to his extremely athletic frame, in addition to mechanical changes to improve the kinetic chain from his legs to his arm. There's also a curveball that's average for now, but it has excellent shape and could become a true plus pitch as he adds power and gets more feel for it. For now, a changeup has been more or less an afterthought for Smith-Shawver, something I don't think the Braves are too concerned with. There's a lot of development to be done here, from mechanical cleanup to pro conditioning to development of that changeup, but there's no questioning that this is a supremely talented arm who could take off in their system. Committed to Texas Tech with a chance to play football as well, he signed for $997,500, which was $795,900 above slot value and roughly equivalent to slot value for the 67th overall pick.

17-517: C Tyler Tolve, Kennesaw State. Unranked.
While Georgia Tech stars Justyn-Henry Malloy and Luke Waddell came from out of state, Kennesaw State catcher Tyler Tolve represents a true hometown pick having attended Sprayberry High School in Marietta, just ten miles north of Truist Park. He's hit nearly nonstop in three seasons for the Owls, slashing .313/.393/.444 with eight home runs and a 91/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games, with seven of those home runs coming this season. There's not a ton of video or information available on him, but there's still a lot to like on the surface. He's a 6'2" left handed hitter who tapped his power better than ever in 2021, and he's faster than most catchers as well, picking up eight stolen bases this year. His athleticism will give him a chance to stick behind the plate and be more than a one-dimensional hitter, though he will need to cut down a bit on his swing and miss. His age is a bonus here, having only turned 21 shortly after the draft. He projects as a backup catcher in the long run and signed for $125,000.

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

2020 Draft Review: Atlanta Braves

1-25: LHP Jared Shuster, Wake Forest
3-97: OF Jesse Franklin, Michigan
4-126: RHP Spencer Strider, Clemson
5-156: RHP Bryce Elder, Texas

The Braves gained a compensation pick for losing Josh Donaldson, but gave it right back in addition to losing their second round pick after signing Will Smith and Marcell Ozuna. They took all four of their players from power five conferences this year, grabbing two ACC arms in addition to a Big Ten bat and Big 12 arm. It's a pitching-heavy class as well at three out of four. I think all four picks give reason for optimism and can be exciting in their own right, but overall, I don't love the class as a whole. By far, my favorite pick was fifth rounder Bryce Elder. However, after the draft, the Braves picked up a solid group of undrafted free agents, with Georgia Bulldog Cam Shepherd really rounding out this "draft" class for the team.
Full index of team profiles here.

1-25: LHP Jared Shuster, Wake Forest (my rank: 54)
Jared Shuster has been a man of steady progress. Not much of a prospect at this time in 2019, he was a decent lefty with unimpressive velocity and so-so command that led to a 6.49 ERA at Wake Forest. On the Cape, however, he significantly improved that command, and that enabled him to post a 1.36 ERA and a 36/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 innings on the Cape. Coming back to Winston-Salem in 2020, he took another step forward, this time with his velocity, and was off to a great start with a 3.76 ERA and a 43/4 strikeout to walk ratio across 26.1 innings. Nowadays, the Massachusetts native sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider and a plus changeup from the left side. That changeup is truly his bread and butter, a plus pitch that never seems to reach the plate, fooling even advanced hitters. The Braves' hope is that his next big step forward will be with that slider, which plays closer to average. It can play up at times when he tunnels it off his other pitches, and overall, a lefty that can hit 97 and command it is going to be a hot commodity. He's a little bit older for a college junior, set to turn 22 in July, but the Braves certainly think they're getting a potential impact starting pitcher here. Slot value is $2.74 million and I'd imagine he might not require all of that to sign, but I don't see any obvious over slot candidates lower in the draft except for perhaps Bryce Elder. Pre-draft profile here.

3-97: OF Jesse Franklin, Michigan (my rank: 148)
72 picks later, the Braves came around on the board again and picked up Michigan outfielder Jesse Franklin. A Seattle native who travelled across the country for school, his track record has been a little bit hard to discern. He hit a robust .327/.379/.588 with ten home runs as a freshman, then followed that up with a solid summer on the Cape. However, he dropped to .262/.388/.477 with 13 home runs as a sophomore as pitchers pitched him more carefully and he simultaneously started to tap a little more power. After not playing in 2020 due to a skiing accident, scouts are left wondering who the real Franklin is. It looks like he's about solid-average across the board, showing some power, some pure hitting ability, some speed, and some defense in the outfield. That comes out to a fourth outfield projection in all, looking like maybe 10-15 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages, but at this point he could develop in any number of directions. He's clearly a talented ballplayer with a nice combination of physical tools and feel for the game, so the Braves should be confident they'll be getting some sort of a contributor in some capacity, but they'll have to wait and see a little more than for the typical college hitter. Slot value here is $599,100, which seems perhaps fair for Franklin. Like Shuster, he may take a bit of a discount, but I wouldn't peg him for a big one.

4-126: RHP Spencer Strider, Clemson (unranked)
A semi-hometown pick, Strider grew up in the Knoxville area and attended Clemson. He missed the 2019 season with Tommy John surgery and was off to a solid start in 2020, putting up a 4.50 ERA and a 19/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 innings. A smaller guy at six feet tall, his main weapon is a mid 90's fastball that jumps on hitters from a quick right arm. He also adds a slider and a changeup, with the slider usually above average, but he does need more refinement overall on those secondary pitches. Since he's a smaller guy and also comes from a pretty uptempo delivery, there are significant reliever questions, especially given the depth of young pitching in the Braves' system. Command-wise, he's been below average since high school, but he was doing a better job of throwing strikes in the small sample of 2020. With just 63 college innings under his belt, the Braves are banking on the upside and hoping he continue to sharpen his overall game, with that electric fastball being the selling point. Slot value is $451,800, though I don't know what his asking price will be.

5-156: RHP Bryce Elder, Texas (my rank: 99)
Elder is easily my favorite pick in the draft for the Braves. He's your classic old school Texas workhorse, coming at you with a durable 6'2" frame and plenty of pitching savvy. His sinker typically hovers around 90, though in the shortened season he was above 90 more than he was below it and touched as high as 95. The sinker is extremely difficult to lift, bringing a little bit of running action in addition to its sink, and the slight uptick in velocity is a very welcome sight. His best secondary pitch is his slider, a plus pitch with sharp bite down in the zone that plays really well off his sinker and is his go to pitch for missing bats. There are also a curveball and a changeup present, with both looking solid average, but the sinker and slider are his main weapons. He's probably more above average than plus when it comes to command, but he attacks the zone and mixes his pitches really well, which causes everything to play up. It's a back-end starter profile most likely, but I think he has a shot to be a mid-rotation guy if the velocity can creep up just a little further. Either way, he's a very safe bet and I love the value in the fifth round. Slot value is $336,600, and it seems likely that whatever money the Braves save in the first three rounds will be directed here. Pre-draft profile here.

Undrafted: SS Cam Shepherd, Georgia (unranked)
This is one of the biggest undrafted free agent signings you'll see in 2020. A true hometown kid, Shepherd was a standout at Peachtree Ridge High School in Duluth and garnered top five rounds consideration in 2016, but he was set on heading to Athens and didn't sign. Four years later, he's been much more solid than spectacular for the Dawgs, hitting .307/.354/.452 as a freshman before settling in with a more average bat the rest of his college career. He was off to a solid start in 2020, hitting .264/.368/.486 with four home runs in 17 games, a bit above where he was from 2018-2019. Shepherd is a fringy hitter whose patient approach is his best offensive trait, though his hit tool is fringe-average and his power is below average. He does have a nice quick swing from the right side that should enable his overall bat to play up in pro ball. Defensively, he's more consistent than exciting at shortstop, but it's more than enough to stick there and really adds to his value. That comes together to a solid utility infielder projection, but for a $20,000 undrafted senior sign and a hometown guy at that, it's absolutely a big get for the Braves.

Other Undrafted
1B Bryson Horne, Columbus State: 6 HR, .425/.510/.725, 0 SB, 8/13 K/BB in 21 games
RHP Carter Linton, Tusculum (TN): 1-1, 1.35 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 20/7 K/BB in 13.1 IP
IF Landon Stephens, Miami (OH): 3 HR, .311/.391/.574, 5 SB, 13/8 K/BB in 15 games
OF Ethan Workinger, San Diego City CC: 0 HR, .387/.444/.600, 2 SB, 11/9 K/BB in 19 games

The Braves pick up two more semi-hometown players in the undrafted free agent market, grabbing Bryson Horne (Blountstown, FL) and Carter Linton (Kingsport, TN) out of Division II schools. Horne transferred from Georgia Highlands College to Columbus State and raked, putting up video game numbers in 2020 that could help him slug his way to a bench role down the line. Linton, meanwhile, has played at a few schools around East Tennessee and is an undersized right hander with a relief projection. Stephens is the lone Division I signee (aside from Shepherd), coming off a four year career at Miami of Ohio in which he got better and better throughout. He's a utility infield profile that does a little bit of everything. Lastly, Ethan Workinger is a little more interesting, as he got off to a really hot start at San Diego City College and was only a freshman, giving him significantly more time to develop.