Sunday, August 4, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Atlanta Braves

Full list of draftees

The Braves do very well with young pitchers, and this class was chock full of them. Atlanta grabbed nine pitchers in their first ten picks, pausing only for fifth rounder and catcher Nick Montgomery, then switched more towards position players on day three which made up eight of ten. Two preps, including Montgomery, ate up most of their over slot signings, which were balanced out with a quartet of senior signs in rounds 7-10 which combined for a paltry $12,500 in bonuses, including just $2,500 apiece in rounds nine and ten.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-24: LHP Cam Caminiti, Saguaro HS [AZ] {video}
Slot value: $3.56 million. Signing bonus: $3.56 million.
My rank: #25. MLB Pipeline: #15. Baseball America: #21.
Cam Caminiti was considered by many to be the top high school pitching prospect in the country, with some projecting him as high as the top dozen or so picks. When he fell to the Braves towards the back of the first round, it would have been reasonable to assume he would have asked for a large over slot bonus, but the Braves kept him away from LSU for slot value. There's a reason so many love Caminiti. A cousin of former big leaguer Ken Caminiti, Cam was one of the younger players available in this class, only turning 18 in August. He oozes projection in his 6'2" frame, with an athletic, polished operation on the mound despite his young age. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with riding life, playing up further because he gets a fairly low release point. He has been critiqued for his pure feel for spin at times, and that ultimately is probably what got him down to the Braves in this part of the draft. His sweepy slider sits in the upper 70's while his big, slow curveball parks in the low 70's. Both pitches have nice shape but will need to add at least a few ticks of power to both for them to be swing and miss pitches against pro hitters. Caminiti also shows a nice fading changeup that has gotten more and more consistent, looking like an above average pitch now. The Phoenix-area native is a very skilled player all around and could cut it as a center fielder, albeit not in the first round. The Braves love high school pitching and Caminiti is as complete a prospect as you'll find in that demographic sans the breaking ball.

2-62: LHP Carter Holton, Vanderbilt {video}
Slot value: $1.39 million. Signing bonus: $1.35 million ($35,000 below slot value).
My rank: #80. MLB Pipeline: #69. Baseball America: #67.
The Braves picked up another lefty with their second pick, and this time it was a hometown guy. Carter Holton grew up in Guyton, Georgia, about 25 miles northwest of Savannah, and attended Benedictine Military School in Savannah. There he blossomed into one of the better high school pitching prospects in the country, earning interest in the top few rounds and ranking #135 on my 2021 draft list. He made it to campus at Vanderbilt, where his college career has been up and down but more up and down. He jumped into the Commodore rotation immediately as a freshman and showed extremely well, but didn't progress as hoped as a sophomore in 2023. 2024 was up and down as well, though when he was on he looked sharp enough to hold his stock roughly where it was entering the season. Holton certainly has an interesting profile. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and has hit 98 at peak, coming in with just moderate life. He has great feel for a big, deep curveball that dives across the plate with two-plane break, while his tighter slider has proven more effective for him lately. Lastly, he has started to incorporate his changeup more and it is proving to be a pretty effective pitch for him at this point. While the stuff itself is closer to average than plus, it plays up because Holton hides the ball very well with his crossfire, over the top delivery to create deception. Just 5'11", he does throw with some effort but has held the strike zone pretty well in his three years in Nashville, looking like a more complete pitcher when he stays within himself and doesn't try to overthrow. Durability will be a question mark because of that, but with 200 innings over 41 games (39 starts) in his career at Vanderbilt he's taken the ball every time asked.

3-99: RHP Luke Sinnard, Indiana {video}
Slot value: $737,800. Signing bonus: $735,300 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #185. Baseball America: #287.
Luke Sinnard was on my radar as the draft approached, but ultimately found himself in that next group of players that I didn't get around to researching and therefore was left off my draft rankings. After pitching in the same Beech High School rotation as Chase Burns, he began his career with a year at Western Kentucky before transferring to Indiana as a sophomore. There, the Nashville-area product put up a big 2023 season, but ultimately went down with Tommy John and missed the 2024 season. Sinnard is a towering arm, standing 6'8" and looking every bit of it. On top of that, his high arm slot creates 7'1" release height that is just plain bonkers, about a full foot higher than typical. The fastball is not overwhelming, sitting in the low 90's and touching 96 with riding life that gets obscured by the steep approach angle, but it's just coming straight down on you. He has a big, true 12-6 curveball that could be a plus pitch when factoring in his command of it, while he can work his tighter slider into more of a cutter to get the full spectrum of movement. Sinnard also throws a changeup, but it's behind his other offerings and will need refinement. With a pretty clean delivery and great feel for his body, he shows above average command and looks like a pretty complete back-end starting pitching prospect. Obviously we'll see how everything comes back from injury, but he's already up and throwing bullpens again and could fly through the system once he gets fully healthy.

4-129: LHP Herick Hernandez, Miami {video}
Slot value: $551,100. Signing bonus: $472,500 ($78,600 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #419.
This is a bit earlier than Herick Hernandez probably expected to go, and it gives the Braves a second undersized lefty. Hernandez began his career at Miami Dade JC then transferred to Miami after two seasons, where he immediately announced his presence with six no-hit innings against NJIT in his debut, striking out ten in the process. The rest of the season was more uneven, but the Braves clearly loved the stuff. Hernandez sits in the low 90's with his fastball and has touched 95, not overwhelming but he gets over 20 inches of riding life on the pitch to make it play up. His slider looks like an above average pitch and proved to be very effective for him against ACC hitters, while his curveball has deeper break and offers a change of pace. There's also a changeup in there, but it's too firm in the upper 80's and didn't miss as many bats. The 5'10" lefty utilizes an over the top delivery with long arm action and shorter extension, creating a bit of deception without hampering his average command. Age is a bonus here, as the Miami-area native didn't turn 21 until nearly a month after the draft, but he lacks projection in his smaller frame. The Braves may push him to the bullpen to see what he can do in shorter stints, with the fastball potentially ticking up towards the mid 90's with that same big riding life.

5-161: C Nick Montgomery, Cypress HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $403,400. Signing bonus: $997,500 ($594,100 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #196. Baseball America: #222.
Nick Montgomery has been an up arrow prospect all spring, one which was on my radar at the end of the draft process but which I ultimately did not get around to studying, much like Luke Sinnard. Initially committed to Arizona State, Montgomery instead signed with the Braves for nearly a million dollars, roughly the slot value of the #78 pick. Interestingly, he played his high school baseball in the same corner of the southern Los Angeles suburbs as current Braves catcher Travis d'Arnaud, and he has a chance to succeed him in Atlanta. Montgomery is extremely well built at 6'4" and effortlessly produces above average power with a pretty simple right handed swing. He has performed well in showcase settings and continued to impress against strong Southern California competition this spring, with improving bat to ball ability that convinced the Braves he will tap that power in pro ball. He gets nice carry on his throws down to second base and should be able to control the running game, though his glovework is more so-so. It's tough to remain behind the plate at that size, but it's been done before and by giving him this much money, the Braves likely believe he has it in him. And as a fallback plan, they must believe enough in the bat to see a productive hitter even if he's forced to first base or a corner outfield spot. He moves fairly well at first base and could provide some defensive value there.

6-191: RHP Ethan Bagwell, Collinsville HS [IL] {video}
Slot value: $312,800. Signing bonus: $822,500 ($509,700 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #231. Baseball America: #362.
The Braves went over slot again to land another prep in the sixth round, luring Ethan Bagwell away from a Missouri commitment for third round money. Bagwell is a trajectory prospect who needs considerable work, but who is trending hard in the right direction. After topping out around 93-94 last year, he hit 97 in his very first inning of the 2024 season and has consistently operated in the low 90's, sometimes a tick above. The fastball has nice hop up in the zone, too, and he can sink it down in the zone. Bagwell's slider is average, having taken a step forward this spring but still lacking true power and finish, while his changeup is coming along but needs further refinement. The St. Louis-area native has long struggled with command, and while he has smoothed out his delivery a bit lately, it's still a question mark going forward. The 6'4" righty has the size and frame to start long term, but a combination of conditioning, continued refinement of his delivery, and the development of his secondaries will get him there. The Braves love the size and trajectory and feel that he can continue to improve his game in leaps and bounds.

8-251: RHP Logan Samuels, Montevallo {video}
Slot value: $205,300. Signing bonus: $7,500 ($197,800 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Logan Samuels was a senior sign who took home a paltry $7,500 signing bonus, the third lowest of any Braves draftee, and he also represents a bit of a local pick. Samuels, a lifelong Braves fan, grew up in Winfield, Alabama, a small town in northwestern Alabama about halfway between Birmingham and Tupelo. From there, he spent four years at Division II Montevallo, a small state school about thirty miles south of Birmingham. There he has gradually worked his way into the Falcons' rotation, though with a career 5.45 ERA he has never posted dominant numbers. Still, he is the highest draft pick in the history of the University of Montevallo. He has a low 90's fastball that touches 94 with nice riding action from a loose delivery. I have not found any information on his secondary stuff. Samuels has had so-so command throughout his career but really improved in that department in 2024, dropping his walk rate from 13.0% over his first three seasons to just 5.4% this year. Long and lanky at 6'4", 170 pounds, the Braves will like his still-projectable frame and athletic delivery, with the hope that he can add some power to his stuff while maintaining his newfound command. If nothing else, it's a nice story for the Alabama kid to don the jersey of his favorite team, but of course Samuels and the Braves have bigger plans than that.

11-341: OF Patrick Clohisy, Saint Louis {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #397.
After a string of dirt cheap senior signs to end day two, the Braves went back to real signing bonuses in the eleventh round and began day three with a fun bat. Patrick Clohisy started out at Purdue, but started just one game in his two seasons there and transferred back home to Saint Louis, where all he did was hit .353/.461/.596 over two seasons. He's an extremely professional hitter that rarely chases and makes plenty of contact, using a quick left handed swing to gash line drives around the field. Undersized at 5'10", there's a little bit of pop in the bat as well with exit velocities that could indicate average raw power in the tank. More of a contact-oriented hitter, he prefers to stay within himself and hit line drives, but it would be interesting if the Braves found a way to help him turn on the a ball a little more often. He's played mostly center and right field at Saint Louis but has stolen 48 bases over the past two seasons. He'll turn 23 this offseason and has been assigned to Low A Augusta, but has not seen game action just yet.

14-431: 1B Mason Guerra, Oregon State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #342.
Mason Guerra gives the Braves a high pedigree name after going a bit more off the grid for a while – he's their first pick from a Power Five program since Nebraska's Brett Sears in the seventh round and their first to make any real money (Sears signed for $12,500) since Miami's Herick Hernandez in the fourth round. Guerra was a fairly well-known prospect out of the Portland-area high school ranks in 2021, but made it to campus at Oregon State and put up a massive sophomore season in 2023. However, he hasn't been able to build his stock any more in the calendar year since. He hit .273/.371/.351 on the Cape last summer, showcasing a strong approach but not getting to his power, then struggled to just a .243/.360/.467 line (including .207/.321/.370 in Pac-12 play) that looks worse when you consider the hitter-friendly environment of college baseball. Still, there is a lot to go off. Guerra has easy plus raw power, perhaps even plus-plus, with the ability to send some absolute moonshots out into the parking lot. He's also a pretty disciplined hitter that had no problem adjusting up to Cape pitching last summer, and the transition to pro pitching should be easier for him than most other Braves draftees. The main drawback here is bat to ball, as Guerra struck out nearly a quarter of the time in 2024 and swung through too many hittable pitches in the zone. The swing can get a little long with some bat wrap in the load, so the Braves may look to shorten him up a little bit. Well built at 6'3", he's plenty strong enough to continue to tap his power even in that case. Guerra has mostly played first base for Oregon State but he has a chance to play third base or a corner outfield spot if he can maintain his quickness and refine his actions, and his strong arm will help. He looks to be a power hitting bench or platoon bat for the Braves in the long run and has joined Patrick Clohisy at Low A Augusta, but similarly has not played yet.

20-611: OF Eric Hartman, Holy Trinity Academy [AB] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $337,500 ($187,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The Braves had a little bonus money left over at the end of the draft, so they popped one more prep here with their last pick and gave him sixth round money to eschew a Michigan commitment. Nine years ago, the Braves drafted Michael Soroka in the first round out of high school in Calgary, Alberta, and this year they grabbed Eric Hartman out of nearby Okotoks, Alberta. A skinny kid at 6'1", he employs a flat, line drive-oriented left handed swing that he uses to make consistent contact around the field. The frame has space to add some strength and if he starts elevating the ball more, he could grow into fringy power. Hartman is also a very good runner with a shot to play center field. He's well regarded in the Canadian amateur baseball scene and has performed consistently at high profile events up north, and the Braves hope he can blossom into a leadoff-type profile. Hartman is young, having only turned 18 in June, and may take longer to work through the system.

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