Friday, August 2, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: San Diego Padres

Full list of draftees

Surprise surprise, the Padres picked a high schooler in the first round, only the eighth consecutive year they've done so. That's a string that includes MacKenzie Gore, C.J. Abrams, and Jackson Merrill, while Dylan Lesko and Dillon Head could still turn into impact players in the future albeit with new teams. Not only that, but they in fact began the draft with three straight preps and of the $11 million they spent on 21 draftees, $8.5 million went to four preps. To afford it, much of the rest of the class was money-saving senior signs, including just $90,000 spent in rounds 6-10 combined. Interestingly, while many teams emphasize age with high schoolers, the Padres did the opposite and all four preps will be 19 years old before the end of the regular season. Lastly, I'll note that Kash Mayfield, Boston Bateman, Cobb Hightower, Tyson Neighbors, Kavares Tears, and Kale Fountain is an elite group of baseball names.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-25: LHP Kash Mayfield, Elk City HS [OK] {video}
Slot value: $3.44 million. Signing bonus: $3.44 million.
My rank: #21. MLB Pipeline: #30. Baseball America: #25.
Kash Mayfield represents the eighth consecutive high schooler taken in the first round for San Diego, and he's a good one – dare I say the top high school pitcher in the country? That's how he ranked on my board, anyways. Hailing from the small town of Elk City in western Oklahoma, Mayfield has among the most well rounded profiles you'll see from a prep. Having experienced a velocity bump this spring, he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has touched 98 with some riding life. The breaking ball hasn't found its true identity yet, though he's sharpened it up a bit this spring and it could become and above average slider in time. Lastly, Mayfield shows an above average changeup that is flashing plus more often with excellent fade, giving him a big league three pitch mix. The 6'4" lefty generates it all with an effortless, balanced, buttery smooth delivery that enables him to simultaneously show plus command of all three pitches. A solid athlete, he extends down the mound well too, putting a little extra hop on his stuff. Besides the average feel for spin, the only real drawback in this profile is his age, as he turned 19 back in February and was really the age of a college freshman. Still, he's every bit as polished as you'd hope for (and more) from a college freshman and he's touching the upper 90's from the left side, so the age really isn't too much of an issue. While the lack of a plus breaking ball (for now) may hold him back from true ace upside, he looks like a serious #2/#3 starter with a high floor. The Padres were able to pull him away from an Oklahoma State commitment for slot value, which is a nice get.

2-52: LHP Boston Bateman, Adolfo Camarillo HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $1.76 million. Signing bonus: $2.5 million ($737,500 above slot value).
My rank: #87. MLB Pipeline: #57. Baseball America: #77.
Make that two high school pitchers in a row for the Padres, who stayed in Southern California to grab Boston Bateman. Initially committed to LSU, it wasn't cheap to keep him in the Golden State as the Padres spent $2.5 million, roughly the value of the #37 pick, to divert him. Bateman's size and long flowing hair stand out first, as "Sasquatch" comes in listed at a cool 6'8", 240 pounds. He pumps in low 90's fastballs and gets up to 97, albeit with average life. His feel for spin is a real separator, with his big, deep curveball showing plus and he can locate it to boot. That left handed feel for spin makes him similar to fellow Padres prospect Robby Snelling in that specific regard, though they're otherwise different pitchers. Bateman technically has a changeup, but it's too firm and undeveloped. Already a big guy, he utilizes a long delivery in which he turns his hips back towards second base before unfurling his long limbs towards the plate. That delivery has hampered his command in the past, though he has learned to repeat it better and is approaching average command. The Padres are buying the size, handedness, arm strength, and feel for spin, with the hopes that they can develop a third pitch while holding his command together. Lastly, the Ventura County native is well-regarded for his makeup and work ethic, which of course is always a plus.

3-88: SS Cobb Hightower, East Rowan HS [NC] {video}
Slot value: $852,300. Signing bonus: $852,300.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Continuing with the high school theme, the Padres grabbed Cobb Hightower in the third round, which by the way is an elite baseball name. Hightower flew up draft boards late, late enough that he wasn't picked up by either MLB Pipeline or Baseball America, though he did come in at #174 on Future Stars Series. There isn't a ton of information or video out there, but we'll do our best. Hightower isn't huge, but he still has a fairly projectable frame with broad shoulders and room to fill out. Using a bit of a scissor load, he has twitchy hands that help produce bat speed and the potential for average power if he learns to elevate and turn on the ball more down the road. It's more of a line drive approach for now, one that has worked quite well for him as he has handled himself admirably against high school pitching. The UNC commit is also a plus runner, which gives him a shot to play shortstop as he's also shown solid feel for the position. Like Kash Mayfield, age is a major drawback here as Hightower turned 19 back in March, making him one of the oldest players available from the high school demographic and a full year older than many of his classmates.

4-118: RHP Tyson Neighbors, Kansas State {video}
Slot value: $612,900. Signing bonus: $600,000 ($12,900 below slot value).
My rank: #123. MLB Pipeline: #95. Baseball America: #102.
After three preps, the Padres finally went to the college ranks and grabbed Tyson Neighbors, a reliever with fire breathing stuff. After barely pitching as a freshman, he broke out as a sophomore in 2023 as one of the best relievers in the country, posting a 1.85 ERA and a 46.7% strikeout rate across 48.2 innings. However, he took a bit of a step back in 2024 as his ERA more than doubled, his strikeout rate dropped 10% down to 36.5%, and his walk rate increased from 8.7% to 11.4%. The stuff, however, is still truly explosive. It's a mid 90's fastball that can touch as high as 99, and while he doesn't get much extension in his over the top delivery, he puts elite riding action on the pitch to make it play up even further. Taking command out of the question, it might be a 70 grade pitch. He can work more or less cut on it without losing effectiveness, and he also rips off a pair of show-stealing breaking balls. Both are power offerings that stand out for both velocity and late movement, and both miss bats in bunches. His command ticked back in 2024 which forced him into hitters' counts and he didn't get as many chases as perhaps he would have liked, and that will be something to watch moving forward. College relievers, even those with electric stuff like Neighbors, have a poor track record in the minors and can't be counted on to be "low risk, quick movers" like in the past, with "can't miss" names like Durbin Feltman, Holden Powell, and Burl Carraway coming to mind. Neighbors is sturdily built at 6'2", 220, but with some effort and head whack in his delivery as well as the inconsistent command and lack of a changeup, it's hard to see him transitioning into the rotation. The North Texas native will look to break the college reliever curse and move quickly towards the majors.

4C-134: OF Kavares Tears, Tennessee {video}
Slot value: $525,200. Signing bonus: $525,200.
My rank: #86. MLB Pipeline: #66. Baseball America: #83.
I may have him ranked lower than MLB Pipeline and Baseball America, but Kavares Tears is nothing short of a steal here after the fourth round. It's not a perfect profile by any means, but Tears can do things to a baseball that most others cannot. He came out of nowhere, too. Tears did not play as a freshman in 2022, then picked up just 66 plate appearances as a sophomore in 2023 before breaking out in a huge way in 2024, powering the Vols to a National Championship. It all starts with the power. Tears isn't huge at a listed 6', 200 pounds, but he produces tremendous torque with his left handed swing to produce elite exit velocities indicative of plus-plus raw power. The swing is more geared towards line drives, so he "only" hit 20 home runs in 2024, but he doesn't have to elevate it much to get it out. The Tennessee native has reasonably patient approach and walked over 15% of the time in 2024, but for now the bat to ball is below average. There's some bat wrap in the load and he struggles to make consistent contact both inside and outside the zone, and while he's made some progress against breaking balls, contact will be a question in pro ball. The Padres are buying Tears' hellacious operation at the plate and will hope to clean up the swing just enough to help him tap his power consistently in games. After he hit .301/.405/.641 in SEC play this year, the Padres have good reason to believe they can do so. Tears is a solid runner with a plus arm and could be an above average right fielder in San Diego. He's a bit old for the class, turning 22 at the end of August.

5-151: 3B Kale Fountain, Norris HS [NE] {video}
Slot value: $444,200. Signing bonus: $1.7 million ($1.26 million above slot value).
My rank: #108. MLB Pipeline: #121. Baseball America: #129.
The Padres couldn't help themselves after three straight college players (I skipped 4C-135 pick Clark Candiotti, who signed well below slot value) and went back to the high school ranks to give Kale Fountain a massive overslot bonus. Indeed, the $1.7 million bonus was between the values of the #53 and #54 picks, diverting away from an LSU commitment. Between early picks out of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska, the Padres are really filling in the Plains, too. Fountain, like Tears, is known for his power. Standing 6'5", he's a much bigger guy and his power comes from the tremendous leverage he creates with his long limbs.  His size and strength help that power come naturally, too, enabling him to focus a bit more on contact while still effortlessly blasting balls out to all fields. Also like Tears, Fountain also comes with a bit of swing and miss. His right handed stroke can get uphill and he was inconsistent on the summer showcase circuit, so San Diego will need to close some holes in his swing to help him tap his power consistently in games. The Lincoln-area native has a cannon arm at third base and is a reasonably good athlete at this point, so he has a shot to play third base at the next level. To do so, he'll have to quicken up his transfer a bit and maintain his present bounce, as any slowing down with age may force him over to first base. Continuing the trend here, he's old for the class and will be 19 a month after the draft. The Padres have a pretty special talent here if they can find a way to get the most out of him.

10-300: 3B Jack Costello, San Diego {video}
Slot value: $181,800. Signing bonus: $10,000 ($171,800 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Jack Costello marks the first of three Padres draftees from the Southern California college ranks and the only one to play in San Diego County. He grew up in the northwestern Los Angeles suburb of Simi Valley and attended Chaminade College Prep HS in LA's West Hills neighborhood, then headed south to play four years at the University of San Diego. Already extremely old for an incoming freshman in the 2020-2021 school year, he turned 23 in May and signed for a nominal bonus. Since hitting .338 as a freshman in 2021, Costello hasn't posted eye-popping numbers for the Toreros with more steady consistency than flair. He shows some decent power in the box and gets to it by effectively elevating the ball, while his above average bat to ball skills put him in a bit of contrast with some other Padres picks. He's a contact-first, solid all-around hitter whose advanced game should transition seamlessly from the WCC to pro ball. He's seen time at third base and left field in San Diego and doesn't bring much speed to the table. It's a bench bat projection who could work his way up to the bigs if he shows enough impact in games.

14-420: C Brendan Durfee, UC Santa Barbara {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Brendan Durfee gives the Padres another Southern Californian. A native of Monrovia about fifteen miles northeast of downtown Los Angeles, he attended St. Francis High School in nearby La CaƱada Flintridge then began his college career at Division III Cal Lutheran in Thousand Oaks. After three seasons with the Kingsmen, he transferred further west to UC Santa Barbara and put on a show as a senior despite missing a month with an injury. He's another high contact type, with a keen eye at the plate that helps him recognize and do damage against all pitch types around the zone. Standing 6'4", he's well built and has some power, making for a well-rounded offensive profile. As a left handed hitting catcher with a shot to stick behind the plate if he can get just a little more nimble back there, that's a very nice profile. He turned 23 shortly after the draft and profiles as a bat-first backup catcher.

17-510: SS Ryan Jackson, Southern California {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $100,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Completing the Southern California trio is Ryan Jackson, who grew up in the inland Bay Area suburb of Brentwood before heading east to Nevada. After barely playing as a freshman in 2021, he hit .344 as a sophomore to earn a transfer opportunity at USC, where he has spent the past two seasons. He's a high contact bat that has always hit everywhere he's gone, including an impressive .292/.427/.375 run through the Cape in 2023 with far more walks (17) than strikeouts (8). Undersized at 5'10", he's a gap to gap hitter who will never reach average power, but he's got enough thump to produce plenty of doubles and a few triples. He's seen time at both middle infield positions and has a chance to work his way up as a contact hitting utility infielder.

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