Thursday, August 29, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Tampa Bay Rays

Full list of draftees

This is an unmistakably Rays draft class. They started with a high school position player, grabbed an undersized infielder who seemed destined to go a round or three later, then pivoted to a slew of unique profiles. They targeted bat speed in their preps and found a whole range of arms that deliver the ball in all sorts of ways, from Jacob Kmatz's high slot to Janzen Keisel's low slot and everything in between. If there's a big knock on this class, though, it was the failure to sign competitive balance pick Tyler Bell. The Rays had between $1.5 million and $2.25 million to offer him depending on how much overage tax they wanted to pay, but couldn't come to a deal and wound up $250,000 below their bonus pool, by far the biggest gap of any team. Meanwhile, Florida has some of the most fertile baseball soil in the country, so probabilistically speaking it's a bit of a surprise that the Rays didn't select a single player hailing from the Sunshine State (though twelfth rounder Jack Lines moved their from Canada to play at a private academy in Orlando). 
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-18: OF Theo Gillen, Westlake HS [TX] {video}
Slot value: $4.37 million. Signing bonus: $4.37 million.
My rank: #26. MLB Pipeline: #28. Baseball America: #23.
Theo Gillen had one of the most impressive senior seasons in all of high school baseball this spring, and now he'll headline the Rays' draft class after signing away from a Texas commitment. He came into the spring looking much more physical and now has a big league body with which to impact the baseball. He doesn't get cheated with his leveraged left handed swing, using a heavy barrel to spray hard line drives around the field. It's not his game yet, but once he gets into pro ball the Rays will likely work with him to pull the ball in the air more often to tap his above average power. I fully believe that he is capable of doing so successfully. Gillen is also a professional hitter whose newfound strength and impact have made him one of the most complete hitters in this draft class. Meanwhile, he's also a plus runner but his overall defensive tools are a bit behind. He doesn't quite have the arm strength to play shortstop, while his glovework and overall feel for the infield need refinement if he wants to play second base, but he's fully capable. The Rays drafted him as an outfielder, where his speed could help him play center field if he doesn't slow down with age. If he does slow down, he'll have to move to left, where he will still have plenty of bat to profile with 20+ home run upside and high on-base percentages. So far, he has one hit in six at bats with four strikeouts to two walks through a pair of games at Low A Charleston.

2-58: SS Emilien Pitre, Kentucky {video}
Slot value: $1.53 million. Signing bonus: $1.52 million ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #147. MLB Pipeline: #173. Baseball America: #261.
The Rays plucked Emilien Pitre off the board a lot earlier than many expected. Not only that, they signed him to essentially the full slot value, another surprise given that most publications had him pegged more in the middle of day two (credit to ESPN for putting him #76). Their brand is that they like unconventional, metric-friendly profiles and Pitre certainly fits that, so I'm very interested to see what they do here. He barely played as a freshman in 2022, then jumped in as Kentucky's everyday second baseman in 2023 and never looked back. "Petey" is a bit undersized at 5'11", but packs much more impact than you'd think. He is extremely disciplined at the plate and controls the strike zone as well as anybody in this draft, as evidenced by a career 73/91 strikeout to walk ratio – he has walked more than he struck out in all three seasons. The pure bat to ball is probably a tick above average as well, which brings it to at least an above average hit tool overall. Pitre's quick left handed swing produces some stinging line drives and he can turn on the ball for fringe-average power, so he has a shot to flirt with double digit home run totals annually. Combine that with above average speed, and he can impact the game in a lot of ways. The Montreal-area product has great actions in the dirt and plays a pretty mean second base, too. The Rays optimistically drafted him as a shortstop, and he does have great feel for the infield and the quick feet to get the job done. The arm might be a little light, but it's an easy above average glove over at second base. He's taken well to pro ball so far, slashing .306/.404/.388 with five stolen bases and an 8/7 strikeout to walk ratio through 13 games at Low A Charleston.

CBB-66: SS Tyler Bell, Lincoln Way East HS [IL] {video}
Slot value: $1.26 million. Signing bonus: did not sign.
My rank: #48. MLB Pipeline: #81. Baseball America: #103.
As it turns out, the Rays took one infielder from Kentucky only to give them another, as Tyler Bell was the highest drafted player this year not to sign and will instead head to Lexington. He is a very interesting prospect to say the least, and with the Rays coming $250,000 short of their bonus pool, he must have turned down at least $1.5 million if not closer to $2.25 million if they offered the 5% overage. A switch hitter, Bell stands out for elite bat speed from both sides of the plate. Not very good, not plus, but elite, and as we've seen from the recently released bat tracking data at the MLB level, that's a big deal. Meanwhile, the on-field results have been more good than great, making him a bit of a sleeper if you're not into the data. He's been a bit inconsistent against higher level pitching and can get tied up by better stuff, so he's far from a finished product. The power hasn't quite manifested yet in games as he's still tacking strength onto his 6'1" frame, but with that bat speed, it's coming. Meanwhile, Bell's glove may be more impressive than his bat. He's a slick defender at shortstop with a quick transfer and an accurate arm, so unlike the previous two names in this draft class, he has a very good chance to not just stick at the premium position but thrive there. He'll do that at Kentucky, where he'll hope to grow into his power while polishing up his approach at the plate. With a June birthday that makes him extremely old for an incoming freshman, he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2026.

3-94: C Nathan Flewelling, St. Joseph HS [AB] {video}
Slot value: $776,500. Signing bonus: $774,000 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #236. Baseball America: #420.
Here's another really fun data darling. Nathan Flewelling hails from Red Deer, Alberta, a mid-size city about halfway between Calgary and Edmonton, but his remote hometown didn't keep his name from surfacing as one of the top prep players in Canada. He committed to Gonzaga fairly recently but the Rays bought him out with essentially full slot value here in the third round, where most boards had him rated a few rounds later. Flewelling stands out most for his power. He can really fling the barrel through the zone and while he hasn't nearly finished filling out his 6'2" frame, he produces some eye popping exit velocities that hint at future plus or even plus-plus raw power. As he fills out and learns to turn on the ball better, we could be talking about a serious middle of the order thumper. Flewelling has also made pretty good, consistent contact against the competition he's faced, though he doesn't have a long track record against top arms so the hit tool is a bit more of a question mark. Meanwhile, he continues to improve behind the plate and while he has a ways to go before you could consider his defense MLB-caliber, he moves pretty well back there and should take well to pro development. A power hitting left handed catcher could give the Rays some serious value, but he has a long way to go to get there. Age works in his favor, as he won't turn 18 until November and was one of the very youngest players in the entire draft.

4-124: RHP Nate Knowles, William & Mary {video}
Slot value: $577,700. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($180,200 below slot value).
My rank: #183. MLB Pipeline: #219. Baseball America: #152.
Nate Knowles gives the Rays another intriguing arm and for a significant discount as well. He has gotten better and better every season at William & Mary culminating in being named the CAA Pitcher of the Year this past spring, and now he's a Ray. Knowles sits in the low 90's with his fastball and only tops out around 95, which is modest by today's standards, but the pitch has massive riding action out of a lower slot to force a ton of empty swings. He's got a decent cutter/slider with a nice combination of power and movement in the upper 80's, while his curveball gives him a deeper, truer breaking ball and grades out as a better pitch. He doesn't use his changeup much and it'll need work in pro ball. The 6' righty has a bit of a stocky build and lacks projection, but he repeats his delivery well and throws enough strikes to warrant continued looks in the rotation. If he can hold the command together and bring that changeup along, the Rays are just the team to get creative and turn him into a #4 starter. If he moves to the bullpen, he could creep towards the mid 90's with his fastball and make that hop play even better.

5-157: RHP Jacob Kmatz, Oregon State {video}
Slot value: $418,600. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($21,100 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #314.
Jacob Kmatz, like Nate Knowles, was one of the better pitching performers out there this year with a 3.38 ERA and a 96/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 innings. Like Knowles, he gets it done with a deep arsenal as opposed to big velocity, but the similarities end there. Kmatz has a fastball around 90, creeping into the low 90's and touching 94, with nice riding action from a very high slot. He has a big, deep, 12-6 curveball that can show shoulder to knee break, while his distinct slider is the opposite in that it comes in with tight, lateral break about ten miles per hour faster. There's also a changeup, but it's behind the others. The 6'3" righty ran a very nice 6.3% walk rate in 2024, showing his above average control, though he doesn't always finish through his tall and fall delivery and can cast his pitches, so the control is ahead of the command. Kmatz is very durable and has thrown 238 innings in 46 appearances (45 starts) over the past three seasons, so he should have no issue handling a pro starter workload. Tampa will hope to help him add a little velocity and bring the changeup along, which gives him back of the rotation upside.

6-186: RHP Janzen Keisel, Oklahoma State {video}
Slot value: $326,000. Signing bonus: $272,500 ($53,500 below slot value).
My rank: #160. MLB Pipeline: #248. Baseball America: #144.
Out of all these arms, Janzen Keisel was probably the most stereotypically Rays-like arm in that he's a complete unicorn. He spent his freshman year at BYU and showed well, then transferred to Oklahoma State for his sophomore season where he got off on the right foot by dominating Cal Baptist in his first start. He couldn't make it out of the second inning in his next start against Missouri State and has since struggled mightily with consistency, to the point where OSU used him less and less over the next two seasons. Keisel may need refinement, but the stuff is pretty nasty. The fastball sits in the mid 90's and touches 99 with big time life, riding and running from a very low slot to chew up bats when he locates it. His slider is pretty inconsistent, backing up at times, though at its best it shows late gyro bite and can miss bats. The changeup, like with other arms in this class, isn't used much. Keisel has a low three quarters slot and creates a unique look for hitters the way the ball comes out of his hand, but his below average command and inconsistent feel for his stuff makes him an enigma. He'll likely fit better in a bullpen role, where he can approach triple digits with his fastball with all its life and hopefully harness his slider a little better, and if any team can get that done, it's the Rays.

7-216: RHP Ryan Andrade, Pittsburgh {video}
Slot value: $255,500. Signing bonus: $253,000 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #249. Baseball America: #337.
Continuing the theme of non-traditional profiles is Ryan Andrade. He spent two seasons as a reliever at Rhode Island, then transferred to Pitt for his junior season in 2024. Making a simultaneous jump both to the ACC and to the rotation, he pitched to uneven results, twice allowing ten runs in starts against Virginia and Duke but also tossing back to back gems against Notre Dame and Florida State. As you might expect, Andrade has big stuff. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 96 with riding action to explode on hitters, while he brings a pair of sharp breaking balls that miss bats. A changeup completes the arsenal, though it's behind the others. The 6'2" righty has well below average command, a product both of his explosive stuff and of a moderately high effort delivery that includes some head whack. It looks like a relief profile on the surface, and he has experience there, so the Rays will really need to tighten things up if they want him to start long term. He's strong enough to do so with projection remaining on his frame, and the Rays do succeed with these types of arms.

12-366: SS Jack Lines, TNXL Academy [FL] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($247,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Make that two high school position players from small cities in Alberta for the Rays. Jack Lines hails from Okotoks, about twenty miles south of Calgary, and spent the season at TNXL Academy in Ocoee, a western suburb of Orlando. Initially committed to Florida State, he'll head west down I-4 instead of north up I-75 after the Rays handed him late fifth round money here in the twelfth round. He's a left handed hitter with a quick, line drive-oriented swing that produces nice impact to all fields, and while he's not huge at a listed 6', 170 pounds, he's growing into his power and could get to fringy in that regard. Lines is also a strong defender with a strong arm and plenty of athleticism, which gives him every chance to play shortstop in the long run as the Rays clean up some of his defensive actions. The upside here is a high average, left handed hitting shortstop, which is a nice get for a $400K bonus, though he has a long way to go to reach that ceiling.

No comments:

Post a Comment